Kuzul

Most of the Hot Stove headlines in Major League Baseball will go to the big-ticket free agents that have landed on the open market. Prudent teams, however, can often make major improvements to their rosters by targeting less-heralded players in free agency.

Given the big-money nature of MLB salaries in the 21st century, it’s hard to argue that any free agent signing is a true bargain, but when looking at players from a cost-to-production perspective, second-tier free agents can frequently pay big dividends.

While the focus will undoubtedly be on the negotiations teams hold with Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth and Adam Dunn, there are a myriad of other options more cost-conscious teams should explore during this 2010 free agent season.

Here I’ll go through 20 players who will fly under the Hot Stove radar, but could be bargain producers for teams in the 2011 season. This only covers a subjective sampling on my part, but be sure to chime in if you think a potential bargain signing was overlooked.

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In 2002, the Anaheim Angels won a thrilling seven-game series against the San Francisco Giants to capture their first World Series Championship.

In 2010, the Giants beat the Angels. No, not in the World Series, but rather back to it. In doing so, they also won a championship for the first time since moving out of New York.

Meanwhile, the now Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim finished the season with their first losing record in nearly a decade. Now they face a tumultuous offseason with plenty of work ahead of them.

General Manager Tony Reagins will have his hands and phone lines full trying to plug the holes of a ship on the verge of sinking into a sea of mediocrity. Most notably, he’ll be looking to patch up the leaks at closer, corner outfielder, and possibly third base.

Former Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Carl Crawford is rumored to be the favorite target of the Angels, though management has remained typically silent about any names floating around. And that’s fine, Crawford is a terrific player with game-changing speed, a great glove in the field, and a little pop in his bat.

But just because the Angels hail from Southern California doesn’t mean they should become starstruck with every big name that could potentially fill a need. Sometimes the lesser known players tossed in the bargain bin are really just struggling artists waiting for their big break.

Just look at the World Series champs.

The Giants managed to overcome giant opponents in both leagues, and with no true superstars in the lineup–save for a certain mop-topped pitcher.

Tim Lincecum mans a very important position, but only works once every five days. It was the rag-tag assembly of position players who shouldered the load and propelled their team to a championship.

Aubrey Huff suddenly lead the Giants in home runs and RBI. Juan Uribe was somehow sensational in place of Pablo Sandoval. Buster Posey didn’t even make the big club out of Spring Training.

At the trade deadline they failed to land a slugger like Dan Uggla, instead opting for aging veterans like Jose Guillen and Pat Burrell who couldn’t be traded away fast enough by their respective teams.

Not to mention, the transformation of Cody Ross from a no-name bench warmer for the Florida Marlins to a playoff monster and NLCS MVP.

Like the ’02 Angels who bested them before, the ’10 Giants put together a group of solid role-players with a little experience and a scrappy determination to never give up.

Now it’s the Angels’ turn to replace the halo that once donned that World Series trophy, and they don’t need Cliff Lee or Adrian Beltre to do it.

What about Pedro Feliciano? What about Uribe? What about players who don’t cost an arm and a draft pick to sign?

Don’t get me wrong, Crawford is on my wish list this holiday season, but his inclusion is unique. I’d also love Rafael Soriano and a 50-inch flat screen too, but it doesn’t mean I need them.

We’re in a recession, after all. The Angels should be looking at getting the best value for their money.

Throwing an exorbitant contract at an inconsistent run-producer like Beltre while surrendering two top-flight draft picks on both Crawford and Soriano is not smart holiday shopping.

Instead, let’s shop around a little and find those deals that richer consumers like the Yankees pass up and poorer souls like the Royals only dream about.

The Angels’ path to the promised land once ran through the Giants. Now, it runs parallel.  

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The free agency class of the 2011 season is not something worth getting too excited about. There are no real game-changing faces coming onto the market, and this means that I hope you enjoyed last season.

Without a talent-heavy market, except for Cliff Lee, of course, there is no reason to believe that the results of last season will be any different this year. The Yankees or the Rangers will most likely sign Lee, and Crawford is also looking to be wearing pinstripes with bulging pockets.

This means the top prospects are: Jayson Werth, most notably a doubles hitter who has only once topped 30 home runs; Victor Martinez, who will most likely re-sign with the Red Sox; and Paul Konerko, typically, a DH who will not be able to find work in the National League.

Unless one team goes out and signs a combination of talent including Garland, Berkman and maybe outbids the Yankees or Red Sox on the Lee or Crawford deal, we will see a repeat of last year’s playoffs. Thankfully, there is no salary cap to keep things a bit more level.

The Yankees have already stated that their current salary will be the same as last year, which makes me wonder what moves they plan on making to their current roster to make room for Crawford and Lee.

I assume they believe someone may be dumb enough to take Burnett, possibly a small-market NL team looking to rehash an old arm that had success there once before. The other play would be Granderson, a lot simpler to move and currently a road block for the Crawford deal.

This of course is in the assumption that they wouldn’t move Granderson around the outfield with Crawford comfortably in center field. Either way, a similar salary is hugely unlikely for a pitching staff that runs a three-man staff when successful.

If they do lose the Lee deal, they may make a play for Garland who will be looking for about $6 million this year. Not exactly a small contract.

Pavano will come off the books, which will free up about $1.5 million. Either way, the players who are rumored to be moving are from small teams, such as Greinke from the Royals, Gonzalez from the Padres and Carmona from the Indians, who have already provided the rest of the league with talent like Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Victor Martinez and Manny Ramirez.

One glaring truth that makes me believe my prediction will be correct was the signing of David Ortiz by the Red Sox. This will be the worst signing of the offseason, and we’re one month in.

They are going to pay him over $12 million, I assume because they believe they will stay with the $12 million devil they know rather than the $8 million they don’t. Ortiz jerseys will after all sell a hell of a lot better than a Konerko or Thome jersey.

This season, smaller teams will look to strengthen their farm leagues while squeezing out the rest of the revenue from their remaining big names. I hope Royal fans didn’t go nuts on those Greinke jerseys, but don’t worry, there might be a Pavano run in your future.

All this truly means is that barring injury, the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Rangers and Twins will all be fighting it out once again for their respective seedings in the AL, while the Cardinals, Phillies, Braves and pitching-reliant Giants will dominate the NL.

Although it was nice to have a different World Series champ almost every year it seems lately, things are about to go full circle again from a legit pool of about seven teams. I wouldn’t go to Vegas to place a bet on the Mariners or Astros just yet, but a continuation of your Yankee bet from last year sounds about right.

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While baseball won’t have a free agent summit quite like the NBA did this past offseason, there is still one hefty prize still on the market.  Most teams won’t have pockets deep enough to contend for the big fish in this year’s free agent class, Cliff Lee.

Aside from Lee, the next best player (arguably) looking for a big payday is left fielder, Carl Crawford.

Where Will Crawford End Up?

Every team in baseball could use a guy like Carl Crawford.  For his career he is batting .296 and just recorded his best slugging percentage in a season.  His worth extends well beyond the plate, however, as he won the 2010 Gold Glove (and the Silver Slugger).

While everybody could use a guy like Crawford, very few teams can actually afford him.  All the usual suspects, the Yankees and the Red Sox could look to acquire him.  Additionally, the Angels, Tigers, Rangers and really the Nationals might also look to make noise to acquire him.

By all accounts, the Angels appear to be the front runner.  They have signaled their willingness to spend money this offseason and need to re-tool to keep pace with division foes.  The Tigers have a lot of money coming off their books and might look to make a play but the Angels have the added bonus of having Crawford’s friend, Tori Hunter on the roster. 

Ultimately, while the Red Sox may pursue Crawford, early reports indicate that Jayson Werth might be the favored option. I think Crawford will end up with the Angels.

The Cliff Lee Summit

Cliff Lee is easily the best pitcher on the market right now.  As with Carl Crawford, very few teams have the cash available to sign a guy like Lee. 

The Rangers, Yankees, Nationals, Phillies, Red Sox and Cubs have all indicated some level of interest, but the early front runners are the Rangers and Yankees.

The Rangers front office recently met with Lee in Arkansas but have not made an offer.  Reportedly, this meeting focused less on compensation but on quality of life.  The Rangers know they can’t outbid the Yankees and are hoping to sell Arlington’s proximity to Lee’s Arkansas home.

The Yankees have stated that pitching is their top priority in the offseason.  Lee would certainly solidify their rotation.  CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee played together in Cleveland and are reportedly good friends.  Whether that has any impact on Lee’s decision remains to be seen. 

Ultimately, however, Lee will demand a contract like Sabathia’s seven-year, $161 million contract.  I think in all likelihood, the Yankees will win the bidding war and end up with Lee on their roster next year.

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It’s finally time for free agency in Major League baseball. Fans are excited to see what major players their teams may land this year. And players are excited to see how large their contracts will be.

I have attempted to summon my inner Nostradamus and make predictions about where the Top 50 free agents will be playing next season.

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Besides Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford is possibly the most talented free agent on the market. He is near the top in stolen bases every year, he can hit above .300, and he is young. No team doubts the difference that Crawford can make.

Thus far, Crawford has seen some interest thrown his way. The Angels seem to be the leading contender in the contest, with the Red Sox also in the mix. However, while these teams have talked about hauling in the left-handed outfielder, the future doesn’t look to bright for these negotiations. That’s not good for Crawford, or for these teams.

Baseball-Reference.com has released estimated payrolls for the 2011 season. It accounts for currently signed players, estimated arbitration deals, and other in-club obligations. These numbers will allow us to see how much money each team has available, and we can gauge how that team will act in the free agent market.

Let’s begin with the leading contender, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. They have long been a team that runs, and runs, and runs. They love speed and athleticism, and Crawford fits that mold more than anyone in baseball.

According to the Baseball-Reference.com estimations, the Angels will have a payroll of $125 million in 2011. Over the past three years, they have averaged a salary of $110 million. As it stands, the Angels will be increasing their salary to an all-time franchise high, and it is unlikely that they will be able to add to that total with the $20-$25 million that Crawford is expected to make.

Next is the Boston Red Sox. They, too, would love to bring in Crawford. The Boston outfield has been has been extremely uncertain for the past few years, and Crawford would provide a spark in Fenway Park for years to come. 

But, like the Angels, the Red Sox have a problem. They have an estimated payroll of $137 million in 2011, just $6 million below their three-year average. In Boston’s case, they would need to come up with around $20 million to pay for Crawford, and that is not taking into account other free agents the Red Sox have targeted, such as Jayson Werth.

There are two possible situations that can arise from this situation: (a) Crawford takes a pay-cut from either the Red Sox or Angels who will be able to find some extra cash, or (b) Crawford takes an even bigger pay-cut from a team like the Yankees, who will wait until Crawford sees no other bidders.

The second scenario is the most likely one. As it is, no team besides the Angels, Red Sox, or Yankees even pretends they can afford to bid on Crawford. Even if the Angels or Red Sox can find some extra cash, they will still be competing with the Yankees, who have an estimated 2011 payroll that is $48 million less than their three-year average.

The Yankees are likely going to give Lee around $30 million, and they will still have around $18 million left. That is less than Crawford expects to make, but it looks to be the most money available. It will be an interesting ride, but either way, it appears that Crawford can expect a little less than he would have hoped for.

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MLB trade rumors and free agency whispers begin to fly around the news wires every offseason and the New York Yankees normally have their own column stretching on for miles.

Due to their annual payroll advantage and relentless desire to improve at every position, the New York Yankees are usually linked to each and every high-priced athlete put up for grabs.

While some rumors (such as Cliff Lee currently or CC Sabathia in 2008) have plenty of credibility attached to them, many others are nothing more than empty hopes and dreams. Often times these rumors are ways for teams to posture and improve their standing in other negotiations.

This list will help to cut through the nonsense and play a little New York Yankees “Fact or Faction” with regard to the offseason rumor mill.

Here are 10 often-discussed Yankee rumors that you should not at all believe:

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The MLB hot stove has officially begun to warm up.

Perhaps the most exciting time in the entire year for diehard fans and the most stressful for those working in front offices, the free-agent frenzy has great influence on the next season and beyond.

With SP Cliff Lee undoubtedly the biggest prize on the market, teams will be looking to make franchise-shaping moves in the coming weeks. While some teams may have more financial resources than others, sometimes avoiding dishing out the lucrative multi-year deal can be a better investment than reeling in a big-name bust like the Mets did with Jason Bay last season.

1. Cliff Lee, SP

As aforementioned, Lee will be top dog of the group. Expecting to command a contract that is very similar to the one CC Sabathia signed with the Yankees (seven years, $161 million), Lee’s demands could far exceed just about every team’s payroll except for one.

You guessed it, the Yankees.

While Lee’s wife has stated that she loves the time they spent in Texas, the re-invented lefty is 32 years old, and this will be his only chance to cash in on the big bucks. If the Yankees come knocking with an offer that trumps every other team’s, it’s hard to imagine him saying no.

Prediction: New York Yankees

2. Carl Crawford, OF

The closest thing to a five-tool player in the entire bunch, Crawford’s unique skill set should prove to be worth over $100 million to his new club. An original member of the Tampa Bay club, the only team he has ever known, will let him walk out the door.

While some have speculated that the Red Sox could possibly make a run, perhaps Crawford’s tenure in the AL East has led him to be somewhat calloused toward the rest of the clubs. Additionally, the Sox do not hand out long-term deals too readily, and have to worry about far too many other spots (catcher, namely) to think about throwing the big bucks at the other CC.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

3. Jayson Werth, OF

Agent Scott Boras is doing his best to sell Werth as this year’s version of Matt Holliday, but he’s going to have a tough time on that one. The Phillies took a chance on Werth prior to the 2008 season, and the bearded beast has provided a phenomenal return on investment.

There is somewhat of a hesitancy to shell out a large contract to Werth, who really didn’t do much in his career prior to his tenure in Philadelphia, but someone is certain to overpay. While Werth is certainly a talented player, his home ballpark (Citizens Bank) is considered a bandbox, and his power numbers may fall off with his new team…unless he lands back in the division where his career began.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

4. Adrian Beltre, 3B

Notorious for performing best in the walk years of his contract, Beltre’s one-year “pillow” contract with the Red Sox couldn’t have worked out better for both sides. Unfortunately for the Sox, the third baseman most likely priced himself off of the payroll with his very good 2010 season.

An excellent defender, Beltre’s offensive statistics were his best since his 2004 farewell season with the Dodgers. Now 31 years old, the veteran will be looking for a very hefty four or five-year contract that will pay him between $15-20 million per season, and only teams with money to spend can dole out that kind of dough.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

5. Derek Jeter, SS

The stickiest contract of the entire offseason, Jeter will certainly take his sweet time in negotiating with the Yankees. With no other team expected to even call the career Bronx Bomber, both sides are going to have to get creative to satisfy one another.

While his numbers don’t justify much more than $7-$8 million per season, Jeter’s worth to the team extends far beyond what he does on the baseball field. The 27-time world champions will have to tie in personal benefits galore, lots of incentives and other crafty methods to ensure that the deal gets done, but in the end it’s doubtful to think that these two would divorce from one another.

Prediction: New York Yankees

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As of Sunday, Major League Baseball’s free agent market is open for business.  The most coveted member of this year’s free agent class is Carl Crawford of the Tampa Bay Rays (for now).  It is believed he could command over $20 million a year in the open market.  

Stories are already circulating about how the big market GMs are swarming like vultures around Crawford, Cliff Lee, Jayson Werth, Rafael Soriano and the other prized free agents of 2010.  It is surely only a matter of time now until all of these talents put pen to paper and sign with the richest clubs in baseball.

As a Rays fan, this is the moment that I have feared for years.  It’s the most frequent taunt a fan of a small market team receives:

“________ (your star player) will look great in pinstripes one day.”

Maybe its a testament to the organization’s lack of great players through the majority of its history, but this scenario had fortunately not played itself out previously.  The closest thing to losing one of the team’s stars to a bigger market team was the trade of Scott Kazmir to the Los Angeles Angels in 2009.   Kazmir, up to that point in time had been regarded as the premier pitcher in franchise history.  However, the trade to dump Kazmir’s large salary and acquire highly-regarded prospect Sean Rodriguez is now viewed as an overwhelming victory, as Kazmir had struggled in 2008 and 2009 with the Rays and has continued to struggle during his tenure with the Angels.

Whether its pinstripes, Red Sox white and red, or the colors of the Los Angeles Angels, it is virtually certain that Crawford is going to be wearing another uniform next year. And for the fans of the Rays, it’s going to sting.  Badly.  

Rays fans have grown to love Crawford.  For my money, he’s the most exciting player in baseball.   Nobody else in the game is as electric on the base path as he is, and nobody plays left field like him.   He is a tireless worker and has continually improved every single year as a hitter.   We have watched him make the transition from a leadoff man to a run producer and from a young, quiet kid into a respected clubhouse leader.

Crawford has been the most meaningful player in Rays history.  He is the Rays all-time leader in games played as well as its leader in 15 other offensive categories.

Before the Rays first achieved success in 2008, he was a shining star on some very bad teams.  From 2002 (Crawford’s first season) through 2007, the team finished in last place every year but one (fourth place finish in 2004).  Despite his status as one of the game’s emerging stars and being elected to the All-Star team in 2004, Crawford was excited to sign a long-term deal with the Rays in 2005.  It kept him under club control through 2010.

Since resigning Crawford, he has been everything the Rays hoped for and much more. He has made three more all-star teams, been MVP of one, and was awarded his first gold glove on Tuesday.  

He just turned 29 in August and is already closing in on 1500 hits.  Just entering his prime, Crawford is well on pace to reach 3000 hits, one of the few remaining rites of passage into the Hall of Fame.

As the face of a small market franchise that has been bullied by the Yankees and Red Sox on an unfair playing field for nearly a decade now, it’s hard to imagine that Crawford would join either of these division rivals.  Then again, I will never in my lifetime truly understand the difference between making $10 million a year and $20 million a year.  I usually don’t like it when fans condemn athletes for getting raises.  It’s all relative, and who can say that they wouldn’t go work for their worst enemy if they are willing to double your salary.

I’m watching with my fingers crossed that Crawford will end up in an Angels jersey, or a Dodgers one, or in one of any big market team less repulsive than the Yankees or Red Sox.  I will always cheer for him and be happy for his accomplishments.  But I really don’t want to watch him scorch the Rays on the field 18 times a year and hear some loudmouth Yankees or Sox fan gloat as if they have done absolutely anything to deserve him.

Losing your best players is a sad reality that all fans of small market clubs live with.   And it will be one that the Rays will face again in coming years with David Price, Evan Longoria, and many other members of their talented, young roster.

This is the most devastating loss in Rays history, and Carl Crawford will be sorely missed.  We will miss him next year when tough balls that he would have caught routinely will fall into the gap and bounce to the wall for doubles and triples.  We will miss him when he has his first 25-30 home run season….for somebody else.

However, none of this can take away the appreciation and gratitude Rays fans have for Crawford’s 12 years of service to the Rays organization.  He is the best player we’ve ever had.  

Thanks for the memories, Carl.  Just please, please go anywhere but Boston or New York.

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The debate over the true nature of the Most Valuable Player Award rages every year. What precisely, constitutes “most valuable”? Is it the player with the best statistics at year’s end? Should the winning candidate come from a playoff-bound team?

Further questions cloud the issue even more so. Can pitchers, although they play in less than half their team’s games, be considered for the award? What about designated hitters that only contribute offensive production and are otherwise nearly non-factors?

Throughout the 2010 Major League Baseball season, we have seen fantastic seasons from a wide variety of players across the American League, helping to interject their names in the MVP discussion. Perennial favorites return year-after-year, emerging superstars turn the corner into a new era of greatness, a sudden blast from nowhere out of an unlikely source in Toronto, and even a long-time veteran who only seems to enter this conversation when he’s playing for a new contract.

For the purpose of this discussion, I’m going to exclude pitchers, not because I feel they are undeserving, but because the realistic probability of a pitcher winning the honor is low. Of course, it has happened numerous times throughout the history of the game, but in the last 25 years, we have only witnessed the occurrence twice.

Besides, this is a crowded enough field of potential candidates as it is, we can leave the discussion over the AL’s best pitcher for another day. That figures to be another spirited debate regarding that category.

In this piece, in addition to the familiar statistical analysis, I’ve also incorporated information from Fangraphs, utilizing their estimated WAR(Wins Above Replacement) statistic, in order to help gauge a player’s value to his team. Additionally, I also used their UZR(Ultimate Zone Rating) in order to help understand each player’s general defensive contribution as well. Of course, Fangraphs is not the only authority on such player assessments, but nevertheless, these two tools are useful and when viewed in conjunction with additional analysis, provide critical evaluations of a player’s performance.

Without further adieu, let’s take a look at ten of the leading candidates that will surely garner votes in the election to honor the American League’s Most Valuable Player. If you feel I have made any egregious omissions, please feel free to share your thoughts on the matter.

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