Kuzul

Jon Lester is a name known throughout Major League Baseball as much for his battle with cancer as his pitching ability.

Lester had solid 2008 and 2009 seasons for the Red Sox before a serious coming out party in 2010. With a 19-9 record and a 3.25 ERA, Lester attended his first All Star Game and finished fourth in Cy Young voting.

All signs point to Lester, 27, continuing to improve in 2011. With a revamped roster and loftier expectations he is due for a stellar season.

Here are ten reasons that Jon Lester will add some hardware to his name as the 2011 American League Cy Young Award Winner.

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With shocking free agent signings, blockbuster deals, and no shortage of clear-cut winners and losers, the 2010 off-season certainly hasn’t lacked intrigue.

With most of the big-name free agents off the board and the trade market slowing down, now is a good time to take a look at the best moves of the off season up to this point.

In evaluating these moves, I gave as much consideration to the impact of the move on the team’s chances as I did that player’s cost in either dollars or players.

In other words, I won’t dwell on a team overpaying for a player if it greatly improves their chances next season. Likewise, I’ll be sure to recognize bargain signings even by teams that figure to have a hard time competing next season.

As Jayson Werth’s deal with Washington does not put the Nationals over the top and was a severe overpay, that is one move you won’t find on this list.

Please leave me some feedback and check out my other articles if you like this piece. Enjoy!

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The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will have their work cut out for them in 2011. Fierce competition looms ahead, but not from the defending AL West Champion Texas Rangers or improved Oakland A’s.

This season, the Angels’ greatest challenge will be overtaking the Seattle Mariners—for third place in the division.

Hope for more optimistic aspirations dried up yesterday along with the ink from Adrian Beltre‘s signature when he finalized a six-year, $96 million deal with the Rangers. He joins Carl Crawford in a long, previously reported list of free agent failures for the Angels.

Once again, they offered a contract just big enough to feign an interest, but small enough to minimize the risk of bidding for his services.

Losing Beltre is actually a double-punch to the gut for the Angels. Not only are they left with a massive power outage at third base and no source of alternative energy to fix it, but their division rivals now shine that much brighter.

Like everything in Texas, Beltre’s offensive influence will be bigger. A lot bigger than, say, in Anaheim, where pitchers tend to have the advantage.

He wouldn’t have saved the Angels, but as the last viable third base option on the market, he could have made them competitive again.

Angels General Manager Tony Reagins already missed out on other infield options earlier this offseason while he was busy not signing Crawford, who wound up in Boston. Ty Wigginton, Edwin Encarnacion, Dan Uggla, Juan Uribe—all could have helped the Halos but none ever came close to getting the chance.

Currently, third base is a shared position between Alberto Callaspo and Maicer Izturis, presumably to shift back and forth based on whoever has the hot glove and the fewest injuries.

Brandon Wood still looms on the horizon, but after having the worst season in 90 years among players with at least 200 at-bats, his days as a starting infielder in Anaheim appear to be over.

The Angels outfield is thin as well, but like the Rangers, another divisional foe managed to swipe the remaining options off the table before Reagins had a chance to answer the phone.

Oakland has quietly had one of the best offseasons of any team in baseball. The A’s finished ahead of the Angels last season and with a revamped lineup, they’re now poised to replace them as the Rangers’ biggest threat.

Perhaps the most overlooked move of the offseason came when the A’s stole David DeJesus away from the Kansas City Royals. Last July, DeJesus was the hottest player not named Cliff Lee on the market before a wrist injury ended his season and his trade prospects.

Now on the mend, the A’s were able to add his productive bat and speedy legs in center field for relatively little: a fifth starter and a minor league pitcher.

The Angels, meanwhile, are banking on the hope that Peter Bourjos will improve his offense enough to lock down the starting center field job. His defense is, quite honestly, unmatched, but his .204 batting average won’t be tolerated for long.

Over in left, where the Angels expected Crawford to be, they’re now looking at a platoon of Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera, two rapidly aging sluggers whose skills on offense are diminishing and on defense, were never there to begin with.

Once Crawford was off the board, Reagins should have turned his sights to the next best left field options, but it was Oakland GM Billy Beane who pulled the trigger first and landed Josh Willingham from the Washington Nationals.

While Willingham is not the type of player to lead his team offensively, he is still a solid bat in the middle of the order. He’ll also provide a fitting complement to another Oakland addition, former Angel Hideki Matsui.

Matsui belted 21 homers and drove in 84 RBI for the Halos, who have made no corresponding moves in the wake of his absence. For those keeping track, that is a 100 percent loss in offense for a team in desperate need of it.

There is still time though, about a month before pitchers and catchers report for warmups, another week or so after that until the rest of the players filter in. In around two months, Spring Training begins and one month later, the regular season finally gets underway.

That’s almost exactly three months for Reagins and the rest of the Angels’ brass to search high and low for a third baseman, an outfielder, a designated hitter. Perhaps a closer. Anything to bring them back to contention in their own division. Or at least something to bring the fans back to the stadium.

Owner Arte Moreno claims he didn’t want to spend big on free agents at the expense of raising ticket prices.

He made tickets affordable for fans, but at what cost to the team?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Since the recent acquisitions of studs Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, there has been much chatter regarding which batting order would best suit the 2011 Boston Red Sox.  If the season started today, the Sox boast arguably the deepest lineup in the A.L., maybe even the majors.  At the very least it should have very little trouble competing with a Yankee lineup that has earned the same accolade numerous times. 

This collection of talent is arguably the greatest that most Sox fans have seen in their lifetimes, but if not used the right way it very well may not bring the best possible results.  Sox fans shouldn’t have too much to worry about though; manager Terry Francona is extremely adept at putting the best nine on the score card every night. 

While the hitters we currently have in Boston can be strung together in a variety of ways (each as imposing as the next), it is important to maximize talent.  It should also be noted that Francona will likely throw out multiple lineups with some movement depending on who is on the bump against the Sox, as he does every season.  But there will be a base lineup, likely the one we will see in Texas to start the season on April 1st. 

The following lineup provides the most bang for the proverbial (and literal) buck, and it benefits everybody in the starting nine:

1. LF Carl Crawford
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia
3. 1B Adrian Gonzalez
4. DH David Ortiz
5. 3B Kevin Youkilis
6. RF J.D. Drew
7. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
8. SS Marco Scutaro
9. CF Jacoby Ellsbury 

Many fans have suggested clustering Crawford with fellow speedster Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of the Sox lineup to provide a potent top three that also includes 2B Dustin Pedroia.  However, the popular phrase “quality over quantity” applies here.  It would behoove the Sox to spread this speed out and put Jacoby at the bottom of the lineup where he will see better pitches to hit.  This will allow him to get on base in front of Crawford, Pedroia and Gonzalez.

It has also been stated that placing Ellsbury in the No. 9-hole would be a waste of his speed.  Quite the contrary, in fact.  All Ellsbury should be expected to do is either hit a single or take a walk.  Anything extra like a double or triple is gravy.  If he can simply manage to get on base, we all know how he can turn a single into a double with a stolen base.  He’ll be encouraged to steal, in fact.  Doing so will set the table for the boppers that follow. 

Crawford has no qualms about batting leadoff.  He said so in his press conference.  Whether or not that was truthful, of course, can’t be known.  But he doesn’t lose anything by hitting there.  Yes, he did bat third in Tampa, but that also resulted in a rise in his strikeout numbers. 

Boston doesn’t need his power in the No. 3-hole, the rest of the lineup can provide that.  It is important for Crawford, like Ellsbury, to get on base so that his speed can be utilized.  Striking out doesn’t allow for that.  He will see better pitches to hit at the top of the lineup than he would batting third; he can leave the RBI to A-Gon, Ortiz and Youk.  Tampa may have needed Carl to hit third, but the lineup that Boston currently boasts does not.

Common knowledge among those who have grown up playing baseball is that the team’s best all-around hitter bats third.  This lineup has just that, with Adrian Gonzalez in this slot.  The trade to Boston immediately makes him the Sox’ best hitter, although the same argument could be made for Youkilis.  But for the purpose of serving the all-around team needs, the lineup is better with Gonzalez here.  

The numbers A-Gon could produce playing at Fenway 81 times a year are jaw-dropping.  Much like Ortiz has learned to do, Gonzalez will be able to use the Monster as a safety blanket, as he is the league’s most feared opposite field hitter.  He could seemingly put one off the wall for a double at will.  His ability to get on base on top of hitting 30 jacks and driving in 100 is what makes him the perfect No. 3 hitter.  He has the ability to create runs almost at will, and the skills to set up runs just as easily.

Many have also stated that they wish to see the same duo I have listed at No. 4 and No. 5, only flip flopped.  However I still think it makes sense to leave Ortiz as the cleanup hitter because of the power he demonstrated that he still has last year. 

Again, most who have played the game know that the No. 4-hole is reserved for the player with the rawest power and who serves as the team’s bopper.  He doesn’t necessarily need to hit for average or have a high OBP.  Ortiz can still be that, if only for one more year. 

The new additions allow Ortiz to focus more on driving in runs and less on getting base hits to set up the offense.  As he has declined in age and somewhat in skills, his ability to get on base at will has diminished.  If he is able to hit doubles and homers, and can take the walks he is given, he should be fine as the cleanup hitter.

Kevin Youkilis is another man who should be drooling just thinking about the opportunities he will get this year.  With Crawford, Pedroia, Gonzalez, Ortiz and possibly Ellsbury on base in front of him, Youk very well may lead the team in RBI.  His annual .300 average only insinuates that Youk will be the beneficiary of such great talent in front of him. 

If he can continue to get on base at such a clip, with the possibility of who will be on base ahead of him, he may have an RBI opportunity a majority of his ABs.  And if not, Youk has shown that he has enough power to create runs on his own.  When a player as talented as Youkilis is on a team that can afford to slot him in the No. 5 spot, it is nothing but scary.  In fact the thought is almost terrorizing and I don’t have the duty of trying to shut this lineup down.

The bottom of the lineup isn’t as talented, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t important.  J.D. Drew should hold down the No. 6 spot, and it may just result in an increase in his RBI as well.  If he can stay healthy, he won’t be asked to do too much, and that may just be exactly what he needs. 

Drew is in a contract year and if he can produce in this lineup, his stock in the free-agent market should rise.  If he can get the average up past .250 and provide some pop, he could also be dangerous.  Many pitchers will certainly overlook him after having to deal with the onslaught at the top of the lineup.

Although it doesn’t really matter which order Saltalamacchia (and Varitek for that matter) and Scutaro bat, I prefer Salty to hit after Drew with Scutaro batting ahead of Ellsbury.  Saltalamacchia should be put in the best situation of his career to fulfill his oft mentioned potential.  Who wouldn’t be benefited by hitting in such a lineup?  But if Salty can get his average and slugging up, he should have some RBI opportunities as well. 

In what might be his first full year as the Sox starter, what better way to take the pressure off of him than putting him in a position to succeed hitting after talented hitters like Youkilis and Drew who can get on base and set the table for him?  Salty has a career slugging percentage of .386.  An increase in this number would go a long way helping the bottom of the order produce runs.  While this is not vital, you can never score enough runs.

Scutaro, along with Ellsbury, just needs to worry about getting on base to set up the top of the lineup.  Walks are fine, but Scutaro should get his fair share of fastballs to hit.  His .333 OBP in 2010 was great, and if he can repeat that he should see a steady increase in the amount of runs he scores in 2011.   

Thinking about the possibilities this Red Sox lineup could create in 2011 is a tremendous thought for a Sox fan.  While there are already talks of this team advancing to the World Series and facing the super rotation of the Philadelphia Phillies, this is of course annoyingly premature.  But it is admittedly fun to think about.  Hell, the season can’t come fast enough.  Pitchers and catchers report February 14th.          

This article can also be seen on SportsHaze.com.  

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As the Patriots and Celtics roll, the snow piles on and the Gonzalez/Crawford acquisitions finally begin to set in as reality, baseball seems a long way away.

But, in just 49 more days, pitchers and catchers report to spring training!

The Sox seemed to have slowed down their offseason moves. While they might be in the mix for some more relief help and/or another right-handed bat, the Sox should be pretty content in the fact that they’ve addressed their offseason needs while the New York Yankees have not.

This seems as good a time as any to publish a complete early season preview, projecting what the opening day roster would look like if the season started tomorrow.

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Rarely is it the case that one baseball player can change the entire fate of his division. But it could happen when a star player leaves one contender for another, as Carl Crawford did, from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Boston Red Sox.

We can start by looking at the 2008 and 2010 Rays. In 2008, the team had a bunch of “stars,” including Crawford, and a few superstars. But just about every everyday player was “league average” or better, except for Ben Zobrist (who has since become a star) and Willy Aybar, still a “utility” player.

It was different with the 2010 contenders. Here, there were two superstars, Crawford and Evan Longoria, and two stars, BJ Upton and Zobrist. Other players, like Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, and Dioner Navarro had declined to league average or worse.

This means that in theory, the Rays really had little to lose with the departures of Pena, Navarro, or Bartlett because they can be easily replaced. (In reality, Bartlett, in particular, will be missed—not because he was objectively good, but because he and the Rays, “punched above their weight” in 2010, meaning that they were lucky to win 96 games, given their level of talent.)

According to FanGraphs, Crawford (and Longoria) are worth 6.9 wins above replacement (WAR) or nearly five wins above league average. Longoria and Zobrist are signed to long-term contracts, and Upton has two more “arb” years to go. Crawford, however, is GONE.

If you start Tampa Ray with a base of 94-96 wins and subtract Crawford’s five extra wins, you get about 90  for the Rays—a good number for only third place in the American League East.

In the meantime, Boston ADDS Crawford’s five extra wins to its 2010 base of 89, meaning that he brings the Red Sox to 94 wins BY HIMSELF.

And Boston traded four prospects for Adrian Gonzalez (about five WAR, three above league average), who probably takes the Red Sox above the Yankees‘ 95 wins in 2010. Assuming that players like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Jacoby Ellsbury have fewer injuries in 2011, Boston could approximate 100 wins.

Once again, it should be a tight race in the American League East in 2011. But next year’s standings will likely flip from 2010 to the order of Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, with Carl Crawford being the single largest factor in that flip.

With some luck the Rays’ best shot could be for the wildcard, if they edge out the Yankees for the number two spot in their division.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Tampa Bay Rays have gone through baseball’s version of a liquidation sale in the 2010 offseason. It is almost as if any player with any value has left the team or has been rumored to be traded with few exceptions.

Starting with the expected departure of Carl Crawford to the Boston Red Sox and the subsequent departures of players including Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett the team will look very different in 2011.

When a fan asked David Price on twitter about how the team will be different in 2011, he responded jokingly by saying, “the field will still look the same.”

Here is an examination of the impact the departed players will have on the Rays in 2011.

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Last year, the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers missed the playoffs entirely.  The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees made the playoffs, but sat the World Series out while the San Francisco Giants met up with the Texas Rangers for baseball’s biggest series.

At the end of the 2010 season, ranking the top teams based on their finish would have looked something like this:

1.  San Francisco Giants
2.  Texas Rangers
3.  New York Yankees
4.  Philadelphia Phillies
5.  Tampa Bay Rays
6.  Atlanta Braves
7.  Minnesota Twins
8.  Cincinnati Reds

The 2011 offseason has changed the landscape of baseball dramatically from the end of last year. 

Theo Epstein, the Red Sox GM, must have despised watching the hated Yankees make it to the ALCS while his ball club sat at home.  The Red Sox offseason, which seemed close to disaster when Victor Martinez jumped ship, suddenly shines as maybe the best offseason a team has ever had. 

The flurry of moves they made started out with the biggest splash of the early offseason (except for Jayson Werth’s $126 million contract with Washington) when the Red Sox acquired Adrian Gonzalez from The San Diego Padres.  Gonzalez is one of baseball’s best hitters, since 2007, he has hit 137 home runs and hit .284. 

While that would be enough for most teams, the Red Sox were not finished.  They then inked Carl Crawford to the second-richest contract ever signed by an outfielder, at $142 million dollars over seven years.  It was also the only nine-figure deal ever handed out to a player who has never hit 20 home runs in a season.  Crawford owns a career .296/.337/.444 line, with an average of 54 stolen bases a season.  He will bring an incredible spark to the top of the line up and surely score many runs behind Gonzalez. 

The Sox also acquired former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks for the next two years on a $12-million deal.  Look for him to replace Jonathan Papelbon as closer in 2012.  Boston also added Matt Albers, Andrew Miller and Dan Wheeler.  The Red Sox are surely baseball’s most improved team for 2011 and might even be the all-out World Series favorite.

The second-most improved team has to be the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers weakness the last couple seasons has been starting pitching.  To start the offseason off they acquired a talented young arm from the Toronto Blue Jays in Shaun Marcum.  Marcum pitched to a 3.64 earned run average and won 13 games in 2010. 

Also, the Brewers went out and made a trade comparable to the Red Sox addition of Gonzalez by acquiring Zack Greinke, one of the best pitchers in all of baseball for a package of prospects and Alcides Escobar.  Greinke won the Cy Young Award in 2009 and in the last two years has thrown 449.1 innings, won 26 games and struck out 423 batters with an ERA of 3.14, not to mention he is only 26 years old.  The Brewers offense was already stacked with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, and now they have a great rotation with the additions of Marcum and Greinke.

The Detroit Tigers started the offseason with a bang by resigning a number of their players; including Jhonny Peralta, Brandon Inge and now Magglio Ordonez.  Also, the Tigers added a number of free agents that should put them over the top of last year’s American League Central division winner the Minnesota Twins. 

First, the Tigers stole catcher/first baseman/designated hitter Victor Martinez from the Red Sox.  Martinez is a great hitter, who is especially valuable when he is behind the plate.  Next, the Tigers got reliever Joaquin Benoit and started a trend of relievers getting three-year contracts.  Benoit pitched 63 games of 1.34 ERA ball in 2010 and, while never being that good before, is going to make the Tigers bullpen that much better.

The next most improved team is the Philadelphia Phillies. They only made one addition for the 2011 season, but it was the most surprising move of the last few years.  They re-signed starting pitcher Cliff Lee, who they traded during the 2009 offseason to the Seattle Mariners.  Lee went on to mow down the Yankees in a Texas Rangers uniform just like he did in the 2009 World Series. 

The reason this signing was so shocking was the fact that it came out of left field. 

All offseason, everyone had expected Lee to sign with either the Yankees or the Rangers, he even expected to pitch for one of those two clubs.  Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Cliff Lee signed with the Philadelphia Phillies for five years and $120 million.  This was also surprising because it is less money and years than the Yankees or Rangers offered. 

The Phillies will go into 2010 with the best rotation of all time because Cliff Lee joined Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have to also be considered among the most improved.  They have re-signed Ted Lilly and Vicente Padilla.  They added starting pitcher Jon Garland (3.47 ERA) and reliever Matt Guerrier (3.17 ERA).  The Dodgers also stole one of the key players from division rival San Francisco’s World Series-winning team in Juan Uribe.  In 2010 Uribe smashed 24 home runs and was solid at three different infield positions (short stop, second base and third base).

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Oakland Athletics are two other ball clubs that are greatly improved.  They both have a lot of ground to cover before they can be considered in the playoff picture for 2011, though. 

On the other hand, the New York Yankees are virtually unimproved from 2010.  They added Russell Martin, but they lost Lance Berkman and Kerry Wood.  It could be worse, though, because the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays are worse off than they were at the conclusion of the 2010 season.  Texas lost Cliff Lee, and the Rays lost almost the entire top of their line up in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena.  That’s not it, either, as the Rays lost the core of their bullpen in Dan Wheeler, Joaquin Benoit, and eventually Grant Balfour.

At the end of the 2011 season, I see the top eight teams looking like this:

1.  Boston Red Sox
2.  Philadelphia Phillies
3.  Milwaukee Brewers
4.  New York Yankees
5.  Detroit Tigers
6.  San Francisco Giants
7.  Los Angeles Dodgers
8.  Texas Rangers

No matter how it turns out, 2011 should be dominated by the all the teams listed above, who have greatly improved.

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As Christmas approaches, fans of the New York Yankees have been left with nothing but coal in their stockings.  This isn’t by any means meant to be a slight on recently acquired catcher Russell Martin whose signing makes for a decent “stocking stuffer.”  It is the big prize though that has so far eluded the Yankees.

Fans of the Bronx Bombers expected their annual free-agent gift to be delivered in the form of Cliff Lee but were left with Ebenezer Scrooge-like feelings when he opted to return to the Philadelphia Phillies.  Now another Yankee target in Kerry Wood follows suit by making his own homecoming.

Around midnight central time, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal broke the news that Wood was returning to the Chicago Cubs.  Wood, 33, has agreed to a two-year pact with the “North Siders” worth $12 million to once again become their closer.  By returning to Wrigley Field, his career has now come full circle, back to a setting in which he made his debut as a 20 year-old rookie phenom.

Winter hopes haven’t come to fruition for Yankees general manager Cashman who has been left out in the cold all offseason.  The rival Boston Red Sox have already delivered two major presents to their fans in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, something that Yankee fans are usually accustomed to.  Acquiring Martin and oft-injured starter Mark Prior wasn’t what most imagined would be the Yanks’ biggest captures thus far.

A growing number of Yankee fans have begun to question Cashman who will need to dip into his farm system to acquire not only one but two talented starting pitchers if Andy Pettitte decides to hang up his spikes.  Speculation that the enigmatic Carlos Zambrano is on his radar isn’t encouraging and anything short of landing Felix Hernandez or Zach Greinke will only make disgruntled fans’ voices louder.

The public handling of Derek Jeter’s new deal hasn’t helped Cashman’s standing as even outside the greater New York area, fans nationwide felt he insulted the revered Yankees captain.  His comment during negotiations infuriated many non-biased hardball addicts: “We’ve encouraged him to test the market and see if there’s something he would prefer other than this. If he can, fine. That’s the way it works.”

Treating Jeter like an over-the-hill utility man in contract talks infuriated baseball fans nationwide and even the classy shortstop admitted his distaste for Cashman’s methods.

“I was pretty angry about it, but I let that be known,” Jeter said.  “I was angry about it because I was the one that said I didn’t want to do it, that I wasn’t going to (test the market).  To hear the organization tell me to go shop it when I just told you I wasn’t going to, if I’m going to be honest, I was angry about it.  I never wanted to be a free agent.”

The pressure will surely increase on Cashman if he is unable to acquire a dominant starter, make due with an unpopular trade or force unproven young arms into the Yankees rotation.  Cashman whose job is “to play Santa for the Yankees” has a long list in front of him if he is to assemble a team capable of challenging the Red Sox for the AL East, let alone a squad capable of making the World Series. 

Besides a top-tier starter or two, New York is in need of a new setup man in Wood’s absence.  David Robertson had an awful postseason, as he gave up vital runs that led to their 2010 playoff elimination at the hands of the Texas Rangers.  Joba Chamberlain can’t be trusted either as the formerly standout reliever is now seen as an unpredictable question mark.

Some baseball analysts feel that Nick Swisher should be moved after the free-spirited outfielder had yet another poor postseason.  In his two seasons as a Yankee, Swisher complied pitiful playoff averages of .128 and .176 in 2009 and 2010 respectively.  His erratic defense and lack of range also add credence to the thought that New York would be better off without the right fielder.

Instead of focusing on speedy outfielder Carl Crawford, Cashman turned his full attention to the pursuit of Lee, who behind the scenes made little indication that he wanted to come to the Bronx.  With Brett Gardner as the Yankees’ only consistent base-stealer in their lineup, Crawford would have been a welcome addition.  He would have given the Bombers two speedsters capable of swiping 50 bases apiece.

Along with Gardner and Curtis Granderson, Crawford would have made the Yankees outfield one of the most athletic in all of baseball and a long-term heir to Jeter’s spot in the top of the order.  With Crawford snapped up by the Red Sox, Cashman should still consider dealing Swisher and finding a younger, more athletic outfielder to improve New York’s flexibility in not relying on the long ball.

All of this being said, Cashman is still a very shrewd businessman.  He has stockpiled coveted minor league talents to deal away to reshape the Yankees roster into one that is worthy of returning to the Fall Classic.  It will be interesting to see how he goes about addressing his club’s needs as he definitely has his work cut out for him.

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In the middle of the night, while many East Coast baseball fans were sleeping, possibly dreaming of the glorious news that the Yankees had finalized a deal to bring Cliff Lee to the Bronx, the unthinkable occurred: somehow, the Yankees didn’t get their man.

With the shocking revelation that the Philadelphia Phillies had undercut both the Yankees and the Texas Rangers in a surprise move to bring Lee back to the City of Brotherly Love, many Yankee fans are cursing Lee, Brian Cashman, Ruben Amaro Jr., and anyone else who can be blamed for this calamity.

Surely, someone must be to blame. This was preordained, written in the stars; Lee was already almost a Yankee once. He was trying to decide where to live in New York before being suddenly traded to the Rangers in July.

With his former Cleveland rotation mate, CC Sabathia, already in the Bronx fold, Lee surely would follow the money trail and join up with his old buddy to lead the Yankees to multiple World Series titles over the next seven years.

Wait….what? Are you kidding?

Philadelphia, the team that traded Lee away so that they could obtain Roy Halladay, signed Cliff Lee to a reported five year, $100 million deal? He left $50 million on the negotiating table?

Does that even possibly make sense? What about the hastily added seventh year? That was supposed to seal the deal after Boston created significant waves by signing Carl Crawford and trading for Adrian Gonzalez.

The assumption floating around baseball for the last two years was that Lee was determined to cash in during his only free-agent extravaganza of his Major League career. Philly unloaded him because he would be nearly impossible to re-sign. Seattle gave up after only a few months. The Rangers enjoyed their time with him greatly, but seemed almost resigned to the fact that the Lee would be tempted by more years and more dollars to join the pinstriped party in the Bronx.

Suddenly, Philadelphia boasts a rotation that is terrifying in the short-term. With Lee joining Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, the Phillies suddenly have a potentially dominant foursome leading their starting staff. The window of opportunity may be small, since Lee will be 33 during the 2011 season, and both Halladay and Oswalt will turn 34 during the year, but the Phillies will take their chances for now.

The Yankees, having missed out on their most coveted free-agent target, as well as Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, suddenly seem vulnerable.

Cliff Lee was the plan. Brian Cashman spoke of not being desperate, and of course the Yankees won 95 games last year and were only two wins from a World Series appearance. However, that was accomplished with a frayed and battered rotation, one that could have greatly benefited from the presence of Cliff Lee.

Cashman has spoken of Plan B’s and C’s, i.e. contingency plans, in case the unthinkable occurred, and someone outbid the Yankees for the player that they most desired. As outlandish as that seems, the Yankees must at least consider the possibility.

Well, hopefully they did, because that unthinkable scenario is now staring them directly in the face.

Boston has been strengthened significantly through their dealings at the winter meetings. Not wanting to admit it, the Yankees needed to land Lee to counter the dramatic moves of Theo and Co. A general uneasiness has crept up around New York in the wake of Boston’s maneuvering. Bringing Cliff Lee on board could surely help ease the tension.

But what now? Rumors have circulated around highly capable hurlers like Kansas City’s Zack Greinke and Tampa’s Matt Garza. Greinke, a year removed from an AL Cy Young Award, is incredibly gifted, but a previous anxiety disorder would seem to make him a long-shot to succeed in the Bronx. 

Garza, also very talented, happens to have a combustible personality of a different sort, and the likelihood of the Rays trading him within the division seems low. Carlos Zambrano? A headcase, though talented, could prove to be a disaster.

Is it possible that the Yankees may be forced to retool from within? Does Joba Chamberlain get one more opportunity to prove that he can start games for the Yankees? Ivan Nova impressed in short stints with the team last year, so could he be given a legitimate shot?

As crazy as it may sound right now, it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise that the Yankees were unable to lure Cliff Lee to the Bronx.

Sure, he likely would have been fantastic for the Yankees, for at least a few seasons. Over the last three seasons, he is among the very best hurlers in the game. His dramatic post-season performances have helped carve him a place in baseball history usually reserved for more illustrious names like Koufax and Gibson.

There is no doubting Cliff Lee’s ability or his recent track record.

However, has he done enough to feel comfortable committing a minimum of $20 million a year to him…for seven years?

Yes, he has been great. Yes, he has turned in splendid performances against the Yankees for various teams over the last few years. He would have undoubtedly strengthened the New York rotation considerably for the next few years.

But, seven years?

That’s where the Yankees may have just been saved from themselves. In what could be seen as a knee-jerk reaction to Boston’s marquee acquisitions, the Yankees were willing to move beyond their stated threshold of a six year offer to Lee. Almost immediately following the announcement of the Crawford deal, the Yankees let it be known that they were willing to go to a seventh year in order to entice the left-handed Lee to Yankee Stadium.

At that point, many around the league viewed Lee’s eventual unveiling as the newest Yankee as a foregone conclusion. Not many franchises possess the financial wherewithal to hand out bloated, overly long contracts like the Yankees can. The willingness to go the seventh year seemingly propelled the Bombers into the driver’s seat in the race to land Cliff Lee’s signature.

But something was amiss. The weekend passed, and there was no news from the Lee camp. Surely, the seven year offer was enough. Barring another surprise raid by the Nationals, the likelihood of another team outbidding the Yankees in this case seemed absurd. There wasn’t someone else willing to challenge the financial recklessness of the Yankees in the free agent market, was there?

Well, apparently that wouldn’t even be necessary. Despite reports of a seven year offer hovering in the $150 million range, Lee spurned the Yankees for a chance to return to Philadelphia, instead signing his name to a five year deal worth a guaranteed $120 million dollars. Additionally, the deal contains incentive clauses for a sixth year option.

Cliff Lee bucked conventional thought on the matter, shocking those who presumed he would simply agree to the richest deal. He may have left money on the table, but he went where he was comfortable, and who can argue with that?

As far as the Yankees are concerned, there is certainly an aura of failure surrounding the franchise right now, after watching their arch-nemesis in Boston make two stunning player acquisitions and failing to land their own premier off-season target. Of course, those who live to hate the Yankees will have a field day, reveling in the perceived failure of the “Evil Empire.”

While it may be terribly disappointing when viewed in the context of the short-term, the Yankees very well may have gotten lucky to lose out in the Lee sweepstakes.

In the limited history of pitchers who have signed contracts of seven years or more, such a bold move has rarely paid the expected dividends. Throughout the history of the game, such a long-term commitment to a hurler has only occurred seven times, with only Wayne Garland, Mike Torrez, Dave Stieb, Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and CC Sabathia inking deals of at least seven years. Aside from Sabathia’s thus far productive tenure with the Yankees, not a single other deal of that magnitude can be considered a success. Of course, we still have several years to gauge the overall value of the Zito and Sabathia deals, but prior to those the signing team has never completed one of these deals without significant regret.

Though Cliff Lee has been a stellar pitcher from 2008-2010, one has to remember that he will turn 32 during this upcoming season. By the time a potential 7 year deal would have concluded, he would have surpassed his 38th birthday.

Regardless of his current status as one of the game’s  greatest pitchers, one has to reasonably ask how many of those years would Cliff Lee be good enough to warrant in excess of $20 million per season?

Surely, it could be three years, possibly four, but beyond that, the future gets hazy.

If Lee had signed on with the Yankees, not only would they be tied to another mid-thirties pitcher making huge  money, but they remain committed to A.J. Burnett for another three years and around $50 million, CC for another five years, A-Rod through 2017 at almost $30 million per year, and Teixeira for another six years and $135 million.

Just a rough estimate tells you that if Lee were included, the Yankees would have approximately $116 million per season tied up in just six players for at least the next three years. Does that sound like a desirable position for a club to place itself in? That amount of money doesn’t even include the Jeter deal, Pettitte, Mo or Robinson Cano.

While many assume the Yankees have free reign to spend as much as they are willing, even they would have to balk at having that much money committed to only a handful of players. They have to have noticed that the “buy every top free agent possible” strategy has only yielded one championship in a decade. It has to be painfully obvious that a smaller market team just won the World Series with a rotation full of homegrown talent. That same team had their own massive free agent blunder sitting idly while the exciting young arms pitched their way to baseball’s promised land.

Of course, being the Yankees, they will probably now author a blockbuster trade to combat the improvements of their rivals, picking up yet another high-priced star to add to their already bloated salary ledger and continue the prevailing trend of the decade.

The Yankees may feel stunned, the mood lingering around New York may be that of a city spurned, disappointment following what many felt was a closed case.

This time though, while it may be difficult in the short term, the Yankees may have just been saved from themselves.

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