The NL West was arguably one of the best divisions last season thanks in large part to the Giants bullpen and the Padres’ early success.
With young talent running deep, the NL West looks to continue its exciting play and eventually sponsor a squad in a playoff run in October.
Let’s look at 25 guys that could make that a reality, or a repeat.
The Colorado Rockies have played baseball for 18 seasons.
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The world series was won. The parade is over. Now it’s time to look at the division as a whole and really ponder about who is going to come out on top in 2011. Many changes have been made to all teams in the division and fans from Los Angeles, San Diego, Arizona, Colorado and especially San Fransisco all know that their team has a chance to compete. Let’s go down the list of teams in the division and see who has the best shot of coming out on top in the NL West.
As a Dodger fan, I’ve been waiting way too long for another world series to land in Los Angeles. The last world series the Dodgers competed in was in 1988 when they won. The cheers can still be heard in Dodger Stadium from Gibson’s walk off. Since then, the Boys In Blue have yet to make it past the National Championship Series while loosing it recently, two years in a row to the Philadelphia Phillies in ’08 and ’09.
2010 was a bust for the Dodgers while they struggled to win towards the end of the season. Disappointed fans erupted up all over the city while their team subsequently imploded. It was a sad and wasted last season for manager Joe Torre as he left with an under .500 record for the first time in over 10 years. The departed Manny Ramirez was good and bad news for some fans, however his short reign of Mannywood will always be remembered in Chavez Ravine.
This year the Dodgers added some new acquisitions such as Jon Garland, Matt Guerrier and Blake Hawksworth to shore up the pitching in both the rotation and the bullpen. Russel Martin decided his time with the Dodgers was over and in came Dioner Navarro and a starting job for Rod Barajas. Navarro was with the Dodgers in 2005 and half of 2006 before being traded to Tampa Bay.
Overall, the Dodgers really didn’t make any key moves this offseason to show that they really want to compete in the season ahead. Although they added Juan Uribe and Tony Gwynn Jr., it doesn’t look like 2011 will be any different from 2010. However, if key players such as Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw and Jonathon Broxton continue to evolve into their own and reach their full potential this season without injury, then the Dodgers will be an unstoppable force that will easily be able to compete for a title.
The San Diego Padres were left upset by the events towards the end of the 2010 season when all they had to do was win a couple of games and they would have been set to compete in the playoffs. You could hear the cries of agony from Padre fans all across the California coast.
The age of Adrian Gonzalez is over and in come the new look Padres. Their phenomenal pitching got them as far as they did last season winning 90 games however it wasn’t enough to win the division. With Gonzo gone, short stop Jason Bartlett, first baseman Brad Hawpe and comical second baseman Orlando Hudson have found their way into the Padres starting line up.
Also, with Chase Headley still at third, the infield is looking good for 2011. The Padres’ rotation hasn’t changed much except with the addition of Aaron Harang who should eat up some innings to relieve the bullpen of the long gap to Heath Bell. Other than that, the Padres have relatively the same bullpen and outfield as last season with the addition of young Cameron Maybin in center field.
Even without the presence of Gonzalez, the Padres are looking like a young team that is ready to compete and maybe even win more games than last season. Look for them to be a competitor in the hunt for their first world series.
The Colorado Rockies look to throw their hat in the mix as they resigned Carlos Gonzalez to a hefty deal reassuring fans that they are ready to play ball. Todd Helton hasn’t aged a bit and Troy Tulowitzki is as productive as ever as long as he can stay healthy. The Rockies have a bunch of guys who can put the bat on the ball and rack up a lot of hits.
They also have a decent rotation with young phenom Ubaldo Jimenez as the ace. Young Jhoulys Chacin looks like his days in the big leagues may be in stone for 2011 as long as he keeps his swagger. Last year he came up and did very well for the Rockies as a 22-year-old rookie.
This year the Rockies rotation should be pretty decent as long as they all can stay healthy. With the addition of Jose Lopez, they should have even more power in the infield. The outfield is looking pretty good as well with Cargo, Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith. Overall, the Rockies should be putting up numbers on the scoreboard and as long as they don’t get hurt, they shouldn’t have a problem fighting for first in the west.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have a lot of issues to deal with as we move into the 2011 season. With the loss of the two main power producers in Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche, the D-Backs will be looking to their youth as the power supply. Justin Upton and Chris Young look to keep the team in contention although it is going to be very hard to do considering the team is in a rebuilding stage.
New additions such as Xavier Nady, Melvin Mora and Juan Miranda hope to help the team win more than just 65 games. First base should be interesting as youngsters Juan Miranda and Brandon Allen share the duties. Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew have stayed put in the middle infield and hope to contribute some “pop” as well to the lineup.
The rotation for the D-Backs is very young and the only notable veterans were recently added either last season or this offseason such as Zach Duke, the former Pirate, and Joe Saunders, who they received in turn for Dan Haren during the 2010 season. Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy and Barry Enright all show promise as they made their way to the show last season.
The bullpen was also revamped, which was definitely needed, with closer JJ Putz. For 2011, the D-Backs are going to need a positive direction under new manager Kirk Gibson and maybe with some luck, they’ll be able to compete with other teams in the league. If any team would be considered a “sleeper” team in 2011, this would be the team.
Last but certainly not least, the World Champion San Fransisco Giants. They are going to have a hard time protecting their title with all the moves that other teams have made this offseason. The Giants rotation should stack up as still one of the best in baseball. The only question in the rotation remains with Barry Zito. He hasn’t had a winning record since he joined the Giants in 2007.
Although no rotation can match up to the Phillies on paper, the Giants still have an arsenal that will definitely strikeout a ton of helpless batters. With new addition Miguel Tejada at short and the rest of the infield staying the same as 2010, it should be interesting to watch the team bond as they’ve basically kept the same team. It will be interesting to see Buster Posey’s first full season in the big leagues.
In the end, Cody Ross was added to right field, but other than that, there haven’t been any real impacting transactions that stand out. Nonetheless, the Giants have the best shot at winning the division and possibly making it past that in the post season.
Like every season in every sport, the team that can stay healthy and win games will be the victor. It should be an interesting 2011 season. Will there be a version 2.0 to “season of the pitcher”, or will there be home runs left and right? With spring training just around the corner, only time will tell what new and exciting adventures await baseball fans.
The National League West will without a doubt be the toughest division in the league with multiple teams that have shots at being very successful in the near future. You never know what team might come out of no where and sweep everyone off their feet.
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Carlos Gonzalez, one of the best hitters in the game, is reportedly close to signing a $80 million deal with the Colorado Rockies.
It is interesting how many players in their early 30′s are receiving long-term contracts. Relievers in their mid-30′s are getting two year deals, and in some cases three.
Thirty-one-year-old outfielder Jayson Werth signed a seven-year deal worth $126 million with the Nationals, shocking the baseball world.
Thirty-two-year-old Cliff Lee was looking for a seven-year deal this offseason before choosing to sign a five-year pact with the Philadephia Phillies.
Adrian Beltre, who 31 and 32 in early April, is about to sign a contract with the Texas Rangers worth $96 million over six years.
Players thought to be nearing the edge of their prime are being signed as if they are 25, the age of baby-faced Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.
Gonzalez’s teammate Troy Tulowitzki, 26, inked a seven-year contract worth $134 million earlier this offseason, keeping him under team control through the 2020 season. Tulowitzki is one of the best shortstops in baseball and hit .315 with 27 homers and 95 RBIs in only 122 games this past season.
He was especially remarkable during the Rockies playoff push that fell short, but Colorado wouldn’t have been in the position they were in mid-September had CarGo not teamed up with Tulo.
Tulowitzki’s deal may seem like a bit much, but when factoring his age it’s far less risky than some.
And the organization was especially smart signing him longterm for two reasons: first, it keeps him off the market, thereby keeping big spenders like the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees from snagging him for a cool $200 million, and second he will remain at high-altitude, so it’s a relative guarantee, barring injury, that he will produce at a high level given his skill-set.
Colorado smartly kept this reasoning in mind when it came to Gonzalez’s situation. Gonzalez was under team control through 2014, but the Rockies wanted to make sure they had him for longer. Gonzalez, with a powerful stroke from the left side, was their best player in 2010, his first full season.
He hit .336 with 34 homers and 117 RBIs to finish third in the National League MVP voting. The organization, anchored by General Manager Dan O’Dowd, was wowed by his sensational season and knew he could get even better with the Rockies if locked up throughout his prime.
Reports are Gonzalez is close to signing a deal worth $80 million over seven years. Given his agent is Scott Boras, this is a steal. And to think Beltre received $16 more million being nearly seven years older.
Reaction, as can be imagined, was all positive from the Rockies side as documented in the Denver Post by Troy E. Renck.
Tulowitzki: “CarGo’s a five-tool talent and brings it every day he steps on the field. Winning is his No. 1 priority. We complement each other well. If this deal gets done, it just shows the organization and his teammates he’s in this for the long haul. That’s all you can ask for.”
Closer Huston Street: “I don’t believe it. I’m so pumped. I’m driving right now attempting to do cartwheels. Sometimes as a player, you have to follow your heart and do what’s best for you. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Tulo just signed and CarGo decided, ‘This is where I want to be.’ “
Considering Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez will cost the Boston Red Sox approximately $280 million, the Rockies ability to sign Gonzalez and Tulowitzki for a combined $214 million is a coup, especially when taking into account how much they could have commanded on the open market following their previous deals.
Some players don’t need to wait for the biggest bucks, though Tulowitzki’s and Gonzalez’s new contracts are by no means paltry.
In leaving money on the table their motivations were clear. Colorado is where they want to be; to play with enjoyable teammates, to perform for an appreciative front office, to excite faithful fan-base and to take full advantage of hitter-friendly Coors Field.
“Eight years ago, this wouldn’t have happened. Guys would come to Colorado but just use it to go somewhere else after a rebound year,” career-long Rockie Todd Helton said in Renck’s piece. “We have some really good young players. It’s exciting to know they are going to be around for a long time.”
Even after his contract is over, money will still undoubtedly be out there for Gonzalez in particular. With the way deals have been handed out of late to players in their 30′s—like Beltre, for instance—he may be in line for another seven-year deal.
And given his team-first, unselfish attitude and how much he enjoys Colorado, re-signing with the Rockies would be his goal–for a discount, too, of course.
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ESPN.com is reporting that Carlos Gonzalez has signed a seven-year extension with the Rockies worth $80 million. This deal is rather questionable, for several reasons.
There is no question that Gonzalez is young and talented, as evidenced by his .336 batting average, 34 home runs and a .974 OPS. Conventional thinking would seem to say that this is a strong move. However, a deeper look shows this move could have potential downside.
More advanced stats do confirm that CarGo had an excellent season in 2010. He posted an OPS+ of 143; OPS+ adjusts for the park a player plays in to determine how much above average their OPS was. So, Gonzalez was about 43 percent above average. Wins above replacement (WAR) is a stat that accounts for batting, defense, playing time and position to figure out how much better a player is than the average player who could be picked up off waivers. A five WAR player is about All-Star level; Carlos racked up six in 2010. Clearly, he is a good player. Additionally, he will be 25 next season, meaning his contract would run until after his season at age 31, meaning his entire prime should be covered.
There are some worrisome factors, though. For example, Carlos posted a 1.161 OPS at home, but only a .775 OPS on the road. Granted, players don’t usually hit as well away from home; however, he was still only about 18 percent above league average in that situation.
Additionally, and easily more worrisome, is his batting average on balls in play. Basically, BABIP calculates how many balls in play the defense converted into outs while a player was batting. CarGo hit .384 last year once he put the ball in play. This looks to be .030-.045 above what we should expect, based on his career, meaning his average will likely fall next season. Given his low walk values, his offense will likely drop in 2011.
Realistically, he shouldn’t be horrible in the near future, barring bad luck equal to or greater than his luck on balls in play this year. Bill James projects him to finish with a slash line of .308/.357/.545, which is still more than fine. Also, most estimates currently place the value of one WAR at $5 million on the open market. Essentially, Gonzalez will have to produce just over two WAR per year over the contract, which should be more than manageable.
Really, the only confusing thing about this deal is why the Rockies jumped this early on the topic. Gonzalez just finished a career year, with just over two years of service time. He was due major league minimum for this year, and had three years of arbitration before he would even be a free agent. Really, the Rockies only gained three years.
Wouldn’t it have made more sense to wait a year (or even two) to see how he does in his third season and beyond? If he regressed (as he seems likely to do), they might have been able to strike this same deal next year or the year after, when it would get the Rockies an extra year or two and save them money by not buying out a year of CarGo at major league minimum and possibly arbitration. Really, though, this is a fairly realistic, if somewhat premature, deal.
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Carlos Gonzalez had a breakout season last year, and Colorado Rockies fans are drooling all over themselves with the thought of having their young star around until at least 2017.
That became a reality today when the Rockies agreed to sign Gonzalez to a seven-year contract extension in the $80 million range, according to Troy Renck of The Denver Post, via Twitter.
At first glance, it appears as though the Rockies got a great deal on a premium player, but don’t be fooled.
The Rockies haven’t had much success with long-term contracts, and Carlos Gonzalez has hardly proved that he is a premium major league talent. This could get, well, rocky.
Gonzalez, 25, came into his own in the outfield for the Colorado Rockies last season. The young left-handed hitter exceeded all expectations, posting an incredible slash line of .336 / .376 / .598, belting 34 home runs and driving in 117 runs.
Praised as a “five-tool outfielder” throughout his career in the minor leagues, he utilized all five of those tools in 2010, hitting for average, hitting for power, stealing 26 bases while being caught stealing just eight times and collecting eight outfield assists.
An impressive season, without a doubt, and at first glance, you can see why the Rockies have no problem paying “CarGo” over $11 million a year over the next seven seasons—but did they have to?
Acquired in the deal that sent former Rockies star outfielder Matt Holliday to the Oakland Athletics, Gonzalez played his first full season in 2010, appearing in 145 games in the Rockies’ outfield. In years prior, he played in just 89 games for the Rockies in 2009 and 85 for the Athletics in 2008 before he was traded.
Interestingly enough, Gonzalez has bounced around the minor leagues, even at a young age. After signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela, the D-Backs sent him to Oakland in the mega-deal that landed Arizona Dan Haren, and the A’s later sent him to Colorado for half a season of Holliday.
Don’t get it twisted—the Rockies are happy to have him.
With that being said, however, the young outfielder has accrued just over a year of major league service time. That means that without his extension, he wouldn’t have been eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season. Even more interestingly, the Rockies could have had Gonzalez for at least one more cheap season. The outfielder isn’t even eligible for arbitration until 2012.
By most people’s standards, the Rockies jumped the gun on this one. Buying out a talented player’s arbitration years before they actually reach arbitration isn’t all that uncommon. What is rather surprising is that the Rockies are paying him $11 million a season without even fully knowing what they are getting themselves into.
If anything, you would think that the Rockies would have learned from their mistakes in the past, offering free agents long-term contracts without being fully aware of what they’re getting in return.
The first mistake came in the form of one of the worst free agent signings in the history of baseball, when the Colorado Rockies inked starting pitcher Mike Hampton to an eight-year, $121 million deal after the 2000 season, one of the most lucrative sports contracts of all time. (According to Wikipedia, it is now the 29th largest contract of all time.)
The deal, which would pay Hampton more than $15 million annually, was signed after he posted a record of 15-10 with the New York Mets the year prior to go with an ERA of 3.14. Though SABRmetrics weren’t used much back in 2000, if they had been, the Rockies may have avoided this fatal flaw, as Hampton’s 3.82 FIP may have raised a few eyebrows.
Regardless, the deal was signed, and Hampton disappointed more than a few people in the first year of his contract. He posted a record of 14-13 in his first full season with the Rockies, and his 5.41 ERA was among the worst of qualifying pitchers.
In recent years, the Rockies organization has made several adjustments to their ballpark to limit pitchers struggling like this, including adding the humidor, but in terms of performance, Hampton wouldn’t have been much better. His command was sporadic and his psyche took a nasty hit in Colorado.
The following year was even worse. He posted a losing record of 7-15 with the Rockies and an ERA over six in 30 starts. Just two seasons into their eight-year pact, the Rockies had seen enough. They would go on to eat a large portion of his contract and trade him to the Florida Marlins, along with Juan Pierre, for four players, including Charles Johnson and Preston Wilson.
The second long-term commitment the Rockies made was to longtime first baseman and face of the Rockies franchise Todd Helton. After a 2002 season that saw Helton post a slash line of .329 / .429 / .577, along with 30 home runs, the Rockies signed Helton to a nine-year, $141.5 million contract.
Unlike Hampton, Helton performed well over the course of his contract. He batted over .300 during the first five years of the deal, with his lowest home run total being 15, as he resorted to being more of a contact first baseman. He played above average defense and compiled 31.8 WAR through 2010.
The biggest flaw in Helton’s game has always been injuries. He missed significant time in 2008 with back problems and has missed time in every year since. It worried the Rockies enough to rework the back end of his contract, which would extend him two years at a lower salary and defer $13.1 million.
As time passes by, however, this seems to be the way the Rockies franchise likes to operate. In the 2010 offseason, they locked up the new face of their franchise, All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, to a 10-year, $157.75 million extension. Though it is unfair to judge an extension that has not taken effect yet, it is worth noting that the Rockies extended a player that they already had under contract until after the 2014 season.
So why was it unwise to agree to an extension with Carlos Gonzalez so prematurely?
The Rockies had time to wait on Gonzalez. Since he was not eligible for arbitration until after the 2011 season, they could have waited to see how he performed following his breakout year. If he regressed to normal, which seems likely at this point, judging from his astronomical highs in 2010, they may have been unable to extend him at a friendlier rate.
Scott Boras, Gonzalez’s agent, must have been thinking the same thing. Known for taking his players all the way through arbitration and into free agency, Boras jumped at the opportunity to get his client, an unknown talent in the outfield with great potential, security for the rest of his life.
In fact, if Gonzalez is able to maintain his success, he’ll be eligible for another huge deal when he reaches free agency again at age 32—a year older than fellow Boras client Jayson Werth, who just inked a seven-year, $126 million deal with the Washington Nationals.
Now that the Rockies and Gonzalez have agreed to an extension, they are in it for the long haul. Bill James projects Gonzalez to post a slash line of .308 / .357 / .545 with 28 home runs. However, to most baseball experts, James’ projections are compared to “best case scenarios,” and Gonzalez might not even perform that well.
He doesn’t have great speed but can steal bases, and he isn’t a great defender but isn’t a slouch in the outfield either. He could work on lowering his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate; patience at the plate has never been his forte.
When the ink dries on Gonzalez’ contract, the Rockies will have a large chunk of money tied up in a select group of players—Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Jorge De La Rosa, Aaron Cook, Huston Street and Gonzalez, with another potential huge contract on the way for young ace Ubaldo Jimenez. It wouldn’t have hurt the Rockies to wait Gonzalez out for a few seasons to see how he performs.
So even though Rockies fans should be glad to have a talent like Carlos Gonzalez around for the foreseeable future, you have to wonder whether he’ll ever be able to have another season like he did in 2010, and if waiting a few years would have saved the Rockies a few dollars. Only time will tell.
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The Colorado Rockies appear to be set to lock up one of the NL MVP candidates from last season.
The Rockies will extend Carlos Gonzalez’ contract for seven years, worth up to $80 million pending a physical, according to CarGo Media on Twitter.
The do-it-all, 25-year-old 2010 Gold Glove winning outfielder, Carlos Gonzalez, emerged as one of the top players in baseball last season for the Colorado Rockies.
You name it, “CarGo” did it.
From diving catches to stolen bases to clutch walk-off home runs, CarGo was the one consistent driving force in Colorado.
You could call him the Rockies’ Swiss army knife, perhaps?
Anyways…
Gonzalez showed potential in 2009 when he hit 13 home runs and stole 16 bases in 89 games. He was projected to have a breakout season. It would be interesting to find out if Rockies management had any idea what they would get from their emerging superstar.
In 145 games played, CarGo had a .336 average and .974 OPS. He hit 34 HR and 117 RBI on 197 hits. He scored 111 runs and stole 26 bases.
Even when Troy Tulowitzki was injured for a lengthy time in the middle of the season, Gonzalez continued to thrive for the Rockies. With Tulowitzki and Gonzalez on board, the Rockies appear set for the future.
At only 25 years old and heading into his fourth season in the majors, the sky is truly the limit for Carlos Gonzalez. He has all of the talent in the world and could very well once again stay in the running for the NL MVP award in 2011.
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Colorado Rockies fans everywhere are currently pinching themselves.
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I know what you’re thinking: How can Indians first baseman Matt LaPorta, a player who hit .221 last season, become the same type of power hitter as Colorado Rockies outfielder and NL MVP candidate, Carlos Gonzalez?
Well, the answer to this question can be seen easier when breaking down both ballplayers.
When the Tribe traded ace C.C. Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2008, they received four prospects: RHP Rob Bryson, LHP Zach Jackson, OF Michael Brantley and 1B/OF LaPorta.
Of all four players, LaPorta was deemed by far as the key and deal breaker to the blockbuster trade.
The former seventh overall pick by the Brewers in the 2007 MLB draft though has been anything but the type of player the Indians thought they were getting two seasons ago.
In 376 AB’s in 2010, LaPorta hit a dismal .221 with 12 HR and 41 RBI in 110 games. This came was after he soared at the AAA level in the 2008 and 2009 seasons, hitting a combined .289 with 39 HR and 134 RBI in 194 games.
Gonzalez, like LaPorta, was also a part of a blockbuster trade in 2008, being traded to the Rockies along with RHP Huston Street and LHP Greg Smith for All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday.
He, unlike LaPorta, was one of the most productive hitters in 2010. In 587 AB’s, Gonzalez hit an NL leading .336 with 34 HR and 117 RBI in 145 games.
What if I told you 2011 could be different for LaPorta?
Different in the fact that LaPorta’s numbers would be similar to that of Gonzalez’s. That he would indeed become the type of power hitter the Tribe has been searching for since the departure of fan favorites Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome.
Let’s start by comparing the stats of both ballplayers.
LaPorta has just two big league seasons under his belt while Gonzalez has three seasons. Both players though were named by Baseball America in 2008 as the top prospects in their respective organizations (LaPorta with the Brewers and Gonzalez with the Athletics).
In order to see the comparison between both hitters, here are LaPorta and Gonzalez’s career stats through their first two MLB seasons:
Gonzalez
174 G, 580 ABs, 84 R, 152 H, 36 2B, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 41 BB, 151 SO, .263 AVG, .313 OBP.
LaPorta
162 G, 557 ABs, 70 R, 129 H, 28 2B, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 58 BB, 119 SO, .232 AVG, .307 OBP.
When comparing both players through their first two seasons in the big leagues, one can easily see that LaPorta is not far off the track of Gonzalez, as he has even hit more home runs and drove in more RBI in less plate appearances.
Does this automatically mean that LaPorta will become the type of hitter that has Gonzalez turned into? No. But one has to wonder when looking at these numbers, if 2011 will in fact be a breakout year for LaPorta and the Indians.
Now I am not saying LaPorta will be a .336 hitter and be in the running for the AL MVP, what I am saying is maybe we haven’t simply given LaPorta his time to fully develop.
Power hitters aren’t born as soon as they reach the big leagues. Baseball fans have seen this through many players over the last few seasons, with Gonzalez and Toronto‘s Jose Bautista being just two of them.
Baseball is a game based on numbers and stats. Sure, anyone can say a .221 AVG is below average, or driving in just 41 runs in over 100 games is not productive when just glancing at a few baseball statistics.
It is when you actually go behind the numbers that one really get a sense of what a player may or may not become. Comparing LaPorta to Gonzalez does show a different side of what many fans do not see.
It should be interesting to see if LaPorta does in fact breakout in 2011, as there are just 97 days until we find out what the 2011 season holds for LaPorta and the Indians.
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The Rockies will have all three of their superstars next season—and that’s all that matters to Colorado fans right now. But, as we inch closer to the dreaded winter of 2014, when Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez are eligible to become free agents, the upcoming decisions are weighing heavy on GM Dan O’Dowd’s mind.
O’Dowd has begun talks with Gonzalez’s agent, Scott Boras, on a seven-year deal, worth something less than $100 million according to mlbtraderumors.com. Even though CarGo has only had one season worthy of this type of contract, it makes sense for the Rockies to go after a player who has not yet proved himself as an elite outfielder.
If Gonzalez keeps up his numbers for the next couple years, which is most likely, he will be worth at least $20 million per year when he becomes eligible for free agency in 2014.
If they can lock Gonzalez up now, his contract would probably give him somewhere between $8 million and $14 million per year.
On the flip side, Gonzalez could fizzle out with the comfort of a huge contract. If he for some reason can’t produce similar numbers again, it would be a real shame for Colorado if O’Dowd invests something over $60 million on the outfielder this winter.
Unlike with Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado fans aren’t quite sure how badly Gonzalez wants to remain on the Rockies. The biggest clue we have is this statement by owner Dick Monfort:
“Well, I haven’t talked directly with Carlos, but I know he likes it here. And as a player, I would like to know that Troy Tulowitzki is going to be hitting behind me forever.”
Not too convincing, since Monfort’s only speculating. But as a player, it would be nice to have Tulo behind you in the order. However, Gonzalez is represented by Scott Boras, notorious for getting his clients every last penny.
O’Dowd is uncertain about CarGo wanting to stay in the Mile High City. On denverpost.com, he said, “CarGo is under out control through 2014 and we do have a desire to keep him here for the long term. So we will have to address that at some point and time. But it is a two-way street. There needs to be a strong desire on both sides to work something out. We certainly hope there is.” (Click here for the full story)
If CarGo is that serious about staying in Colorado and doesn’t necessarily need the highest salary possible, he probably would have a different agent.
Dan O’Dowd will no doubt go hard to sign this high-risk, high-reward contract. He understands that this current team gives Colorado the better chance of winning than any other team in Rockies’ history (he’s added pieces like Ty Wiggington and Jose Lopez, players he normally wouldn’t sign if he didn’t think the Rockies had a good chance the next season).
However, this current window of opportunity can be extended much further if CarGo signs with the team long-term. The farm system is chalk-full of elite pitching prospects, and it includes a few decent infielders. However, the outfield talent in the system is lacking. Kyle Parker is the standout, but he hasn’t played a professional game yet. Charles Blackmon is good, as is Tim Wheeler, but they don’t posses Gonzalez-caliber numbers or even Seth Smith-esque potential.
With Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzalez possibly cashing in big time in the next few years, this winter will be a critical time for the future of the ballclub. We all know they can be good until 2014 (when Jimenez and Gonzalez are eligible for free agency), but CarGo will be 29 and still in the prime of his career by then (weird to think we have at least four more seasons with this guy. I’m looking forward to it). Ubaldo will be 30, still capable of producing Cy Young numbers. Those two contracts could cost the team close to $200 million by that time.
For now, the main goal for the front office should be putting on a playoff team for 2011. However, if O’Dowd can’t lock up Gonzalez and Jimenez soon, the Monforts may have to cough up an extra $100 million later, or worse, say goodbye to one or both come 2014.
You can follow me on twitter at http://twitter.com/#!/charlie123517
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