The Major League Baseball season is coming to an end, with only two weeks left. With that, it’s time to take a look at who the best players in the game have been in 2010.
This slideshow will focus on the top players at each position in the National League for this season. Stay updated for other slideshows concerning the American League, including the top pitchers of the year.
The 2010 MLB season has been the year of the pitcher. But that doesn’t mean there haven’t been plenty of elite performances on offense.
Home run totals may be down across the board, but there have been plenty of players that have a legitimate argument for MVP.
The list is very exclusive—all of these players should receive at least a few MVP votes. Some of these players have carried their respective mediocre team for the majority of the season. Others are leading the way into the postseason.
In no particular order…the top sluggers in 2010.
Ever since I first seriously considered the concept, I have taken home/road splits seriously. If you are a Boston Red Sox fan, don’t talk to me about Jim Rice or Wade Boggs. Are you are a Chicago Cubs fan? Well, you probably don’t want to hear what I have to say about Ron Santo and Billy Williams. And if you want to hear good things about Sandy Koufax, I suggest you look somewhere else.
But if you are a fan of Carlos Gonzalez, you may just want to stop reading right here. Good news, though, Mike Stanton fans, you’re gonna love every minute of this.
Indeed, it has often been suggested that I take home/road splits a little bit too seriously. Maybe.
The most common refrain I hear from my critics is “Hey, you know that home games count too, right?”
My feeling about home/road splits, though, is that home ballparks are an impediment to truth. When we’re comparing players, we don’t want to know which players put up better numbers; we want to know who the better player actually was.
Thus, if I tell you that in 1995 Dante Bichette had 40 home runs and Mike Piazza had 32 home runs, you might conclude that Bichette was the better player.
But what if I told you Bichette hit 31 of his 40 home runs at home in 1995, leaving only nine for the road, while Piazza actually hit 23 of his 32 home runs on the road, leaving only nine at home.
It should be clear to you that Bichette wasn’t a good home run hitter, but rather that Coors Field was a good home run ballpark, and that Piazza was a way better home run hitter playing in an oppressive ballpark.
Now, consider this: if before the 1995 season the Dodgers and Rockies had traded Bichette and Piazza for one another, straight up, then logic dictates that Piazza would have hit approximately 54 home runs while Bichette would have hit 18 dongs.
Or something like that.
Which brings me to Carlos Gonzalez and Mike Stanton.
Gonzalez, of course, plays for the Rockies and is on his way to a National League batting title as well as league-leading totals in hits, slugging percentage, and total bases. Stanton, on the other hand, plays for the Florida Marlins and is having an up-and-down season, with 20 home runs and 20 doubles in 82 games, but also a meager .251 batting average, 100 strikeouts and only 28 walks.
To give you an idea of how those numbers look up against each other, have a look:
Now, obviously if this were the end of the story, I wouldn’t have written this article.
There is more. A lot more.
Gonzalez is, of course, a Colorado Rocky, and humidor or not, we have to be skeptical of his numbers. Sure enough, his home/road splits do not paint a pretty picture:
Home runs: 25 at home, seven on the road.
RBI: 67 at home, 34 on the road.
AVG: .385 at home, .288 on the road
OPS: 1.198 at home, .760 on the road.
Suffice to say, if Gonzalez were playing on a different team, in a different home ballpark, he’d be having a considerably different season.
Meanwhile, quite the opposite effect has happened with Mike Stanton, as being victimized by Sun Life Stadium (or whatever they’re calling it these days) has made him the Anti-CarGo:
Home runs: six at home, 14 on the road.
RBI: 16 at home, 33 on the road.
AVG: .172 at home, .305 on the road.
OPS: .586 at home, 1.024 on the road.
Now, to be sure, Stanton is going to need to figure out how to hit in Florida; a .172 batting average with a .586 OPS would be unacceptable even if he were playing his home games at Solder Field.
Nevertheless, look at what a beast he is away from Miami; in other words, look at what a beast he would be if he didn’t have to play his home games at Sun Life Stadium.
And, just for a purely rhetorical, academic exercise, let’s see how Stanton and Gonzalez’s road numbers alone match up with one another:
This is real folks, this is not a drill.
This is happening.
So, tell me: if you were starting from scratch and you were going to build a team that was going to play in, say, Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas, which of these players would you take?
I would take Mike Stanton in a heartbeat, and frankly I think he is the better player.
But I may just be taking this all too seriously.
Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.
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While some division races are winding down, others are just starting to heat up.
The Rockies, dead in the water two weeks ago, have ripped off 10 wins in a row and are now in the mix for both the Wild Card and NL West title.
Carlos Gonzalez continues to remind voters why he should be in the MVP conversation.
Troy Tulowitzki has jut finished a incredibly hot stretch as well. How hot? Well how does eight home-runs and 17 RBI in nine games sound?
The tandem are the reason the Rox find themselves within striking distance.
The Giants have been able to capitalize on the Padres’ massive slump and have tied them for first in the NL West. How will the Padres and their dismal offense respond?
The Reds, losers of seven out of ten, are allowing the Cardinals a chance to get back in the NL Central race. Yet St. Louis hasn’t been able to capitalize a whole lot, going 3-4 in the past week.
The Phillies have taken first place away from the Braves in the NL East. But with six games remaining between the two teams, that race is far from over.
The AL is lacking excitement at this point. The Rangers are in a very comfortable position in the AL West.
The Yanks and Rays have the AL East and Wild Card well in hand. And the Twins have opened up a six-game cushion on the White Sox.
As the season hits the final weeks, all of the questions about who will make the playoffs lie in the NL.
As the baseball season dwindles down to meaningless games, teams start to call up the youngsters or even the long journeymen of the minor leagues. However, the Colorado Rockies are still playing for something. The playoffs.
The Rockies used to be known for the big two: Larry Walker and Todd Helton. While Walker has since retired and Helton is hanging on by a thread, the Rockies have found their new centerpiece, Carlos Gonzalez.
The journey for Gonzalez, who also goes by the nickname “CarGo” has been one for Hollywood. He was originally signed as a skinny 17 year old outfielder by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2002 out of Maracaibo, Venezuela. In 2007, Carlos was traded in probably one of the worst trades in retrospect. The Diamondbacks traded Gonzalez along with Aaron Cunningham, Brett Anderson, Chris Carter, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland to the Oakland Athletics for Dan Haren and Connor Robertson.
While the trade originally favored the Diamondbacks, the A’s made out with the better product, as all of the players traded are now appearing in different ballparks around the country. But none of them have produced like Gonzalez.
The story doesn’t end there. The A’s seemingly gave up on Gonzalez after a so-so season with them, as they traded him along with Huston Street and Greg Smith to the Rockies for Matt Holliday. Since then, Gonzalez has left his mark on the game of baseball. Not only in Colorado but around the Major Leagues.
After being re-called up late in the 2009 season, Carlos Gonzalez made his mark by batting .588 in the NLDS against the Philadelphia Phillies. His hot streak didn’t end there, as the stats have proven thus far in the 2010 season.
An outfielder that went undrafted in most fantasy leagues, Gonzalez is currently leading the National league in batting average (.340), is second in the league for RBI’s (97) and because of a late surge is now 5th for homeruns with 31.
Sure, you can say Joey Votto or Albert Pujols have been the best players this year. That’s because the Cardinals and Reds constantly verse each other in big markets, compared to CarGo hidden in the NL West. Now the reasons why he’s better than them.
1. The protection behind Gonzalez. Votto is granted the protection of all-star third basemen Scott Rolen. Pujols is protected by power swinging Matt Holliday. Now you’re going to say well isn’t Gonzalez protected by Troy Tulowitzki? He sure is, however he wasn’t for the majority of the season because of Tulo’s injury. Gonzalez has been playing in a less stared lineup then Votto and Pujols, as the Rockies are mainly made up of major leaguers who have outlasted their prime.
2. Carlos Gonzalez steals the show in the outfield. Yes, it’s great to see King Albert smack a 450 foot bomb as equal to Joey Votto. However, they both play first base, a position where you don’t always see the most athletic guys play. Gonzalez has played multiple outfield positions this year, making fantastic catches over and over again. Not only that, but the outfielder even has a hose in his arsenal.
If you say Josh Hamilton is the best player in baseball, I disagree. Sure, he’s an outstanding player with a great backstory to go along with it. But there hasn’t been a player that I’ve seen since the debut of Seattle Mariner outfielder Ichiro Suzuki first burst onto the scene in 2001 as exciting as Carlos Gonzalez.
When I say Ichiro, Carlos Gonzalez brings the same excitement that he did. Both are extremely gifted in the field, both hit for average, both are speed burners and both currently don’t present problems in their clubhouses. The one tool that Gonzalez has that Ichiro doesn’t have is the power, which makes him a real five-tool player.
And as the season sizzles down, the Triple Crown race will heat up. And for whoever wins the majority of those three categories (since receiving the Triple Crown is nearly impossible), will win the MVP. I just answered your question. Carlos Gonzalez will win the MVP of the National League and will be known as the most exciting and best player in the MLB.
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What appeared a few weeks ago as a two-man race for a potential Triple Crown has now become a three-man competition.
Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has been hitting the ball like he was mad at it lately. He is now comfortably ahead of Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds in batting average with a .340 mark. Votto is batting .321.
In his last nine games Gonzalez has had three hits in six of them, and is in the midst of a 14 game hitting streak. During those nine games he is batting a cool .553/.571/1.053 with 4 HR and 11 RBI while scoring nine runs.
Gonzalez is also first in H, SLG and second to Votto in OPS.
St. Louis first baseman Albert Pujols is fading fast from the batting title scene. In his last seven games Pujols is hitting a miserable .087/.179/.130 going 2-28, setting his own personal streak of hitless AB. During that span he has dropped his average from .320 to .309. He has 0 HR and only 2 RBI with three runs scored.
He still leads the league in homers with 35, leading Washington National’s Adam Dunn by one. Votto is three off the pace and Gonzalez is four back. He is also setting the pace in runs scored with 95.
Votto leads the league in RBI with 98, while Pujols and Gonzalez are both tied for second with 97.
In his last five games Votto is batting a paltry .176/.364/.294 with only 3 H in his last 28 AB. During that span he has 0 HR and 1 RBI with two runs scored.
So at this juncture Gonzalez is red-hot. The other two are as cold as a couple of mackerels.
If the season ended today we would have a different winner in all three Triple Crown categories. In fact, I will go out on the proverbial limb and predict that it will end that way as well.
It looks like Gonzalez is going to walk away with the batting crown, regardless of what Atlanta’s Omar Infante does.
Pujols will probably win the HR crown and I think Votto will probably lead the league in RBI.
As many people wonder who will win the Triple Crown, I for one say that nobody will this year (in the National League). Ducky Medwick of the Cardinals was the last TC winner in the Senior Circuit in 1937.
He won it that year by hitting .374, with 31 HR and 154 RBI. Nobody has won it in that league for 72 years and it looks as though it will be stretched to 73.
In contrast the American League has had five Triple Crown winners in that stretch, with the last one being Carl Yastrzemski of the Red Sox in 1967.
In summation any of the three could still win it, but in my opinion nobody will.
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It’s one of the most amazing stories of the 2010 baseball season. Omar Infante, a career utility player, has stepped into a starting role with the Atlanta Braves and is threatening to become one of the most unlikely batting title winners in baseball history.
On July 30th, the Braves All-Star second baseman, Martin Prado, broke his finger sliding into home plate. Prado landed on the 15-day DL and Infante was inserted into the starting lineup at second base.
Since that day Infante has hit .363 with a .400 on-base and a .513 slugging percentage.
He’s scored 29 runs, hit five home runs and thrown in three stolen bases to boot. Since July 29th, he’s had 23 multi-hit games and at one point, hit safely in 14 straight.
On August 10th, Chipper Jones was lost for the season when he tore his ACL making a dazzling play at third base. The injury assured that Infante would remain at second base and Prado would play third upon his return.
Infante has been an absolute life-saver for the Braves, playing in every game since that July 29th date. In all but two of those games he’s batted lead-off and helped Atlanta maintain their NL East lead.
Even before Prado and Chipper’s injury, Infante was a valuable asset for the Braves. In the 73 prior games, Infante started 40 of them, playing five different positions: 2B, SS, 3B, LF and RF. He hit .330 in those games, including a .429 mark in July.
With Infante‘s insertion into the starting role and his continued prowess at the plate, his chances of winning the batting title have become a distinct possibility.
In order to qualify for the batting title, a player must record 502 plate appearances. Infante is presently hitting a NL best .343 and stands at 393 PAs with 25 games remaining on the Braves schedule. If he continues his pace of 4.6 plate appearances per game, achieved since he became a full-time starter, Infante will finish with 512 plate appearances. He’ll obviously have to play every game to make this mark, but even if he doesn’t he can still win the batting title.
How you ask?
Well it’s simple. If Infante finishes with say, 490 appearances, Major League Baseball will add 12 at-bats to his total and recalculate his batting average. These at-bats are considered hitless ones.
Tony Gwynn won a batting title in this manner in 1996 when he recorded 498 plate appearances and 451 at-bats. His average of .364 was reduced to .359 and he still led the National League.
Prior to this season, Infante was only a .264 career hitter (though he did hit .305 last year). The important fact to remember with Infante though, is that he is only 28 years old. Players often reach their peak around that age, a fact that’s even more true for Infante, who’s body has less wear than others because of his reduced role in prior seasons.
Carlos Gonzalez, with an assist from Coors field, is Infante’s main competition. He’s hitting .337 to Infante’s .343. Joey Votto is a distant third at .321.
It’s difficult to determine who the most unlikely batting title winner in NL history is.
Al Oliver, a name few know, won the title with Montreal in 1982. But he hit over .300 eleven times in his career. Another Atlanta Brave, Ralph Garr won the title in 1974 (Garr was also 28 when he accomplished the feat). Rico Carty also did it for the Braves in 1970. Very few people outside of Atlanta, remember these names.
In the American League, Bill Mueller hit .326 in 2003. He was a .286 career hitter before that. Mueller was also out of baseball three seasons later.
The only distant comparison for Infante is Snuffy Stirnweiss. Stirnweiss played for the Yankees in 1945 when baseball was severely depleted by the departure of players to World War II. Stirnweiss hit .309 in 1945. He never hit above .256 again and hit only .268 for his career.
With Infante‘s hitting showing no signs of slowing down and a decent shot at 502 plate appearances, he has a very real chance to become one of the most unlikely batting champions in baseball history
I’d love to hear some readers thoughts about whether or not Infante might be the most unlikely batting champ in the long history of baseball and whether or not he has a legitimate chance at the feat.
You can view the history of NL and AL batting champs, going all the way back to when Levi Meyerle hit .492 in 1871, here.
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As the calendar turns to September, baseball races are really starting to heat up.
The NL Wild Card has a few possible candidates: the Phillies lead the Giants by two games and are 5.5 up on the fading Cardinals.
The Rockies find themselves 6.5 games out of the Wild Card lead after a seemingly season-killing, eight-game losing streak at the end of July. They are still 7.5 games out of the NL West, despite the Padres’ continued slide.
Yesterday’s gut-wrenching, 12-11 loss to the Phillies really hurts. Like, soap in both eyes hurt. But with 29 games to play, the Rockies will still be a player down the stretch run.
The Rockies have been able to tread water with injuries to Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa, Manuel Corpas and Huston Street.
They have a Pirate-like road record of 26-42. The offense tends to go into hibernation outside of the friendly confines of Coors Field.
Their ace Ubaldo Jimenez hasn’t won a decision since August 4th despite allowing no more than three earned runs in his past seven starts. The flamethrower has taken it in stride, but people were talking about this guy winning 30 games in July; now he might not even reach 20!
The Rockies have had to deal with the aging of their local legend, Helton, who has been a force for the Rockies for over 10 years. But age is creeping up on him very quickly; Helton hit a paltry .246 before being placed on the DL in early July with a stiff back. The $17.7M dollar man only had two homers to that point.
Since coming off the DL in early August, Helton has improved dramatically.
The re-energized Helton has hit .307 while launching four bombs and knocking in 10 runs, making the offseason choice for Rockies’ management that much harder. Helton’s gargantuan contract runs through the ’11 campaign.
Tulo has returned to All-Star form after being sidelined for 33 games with a broken wrist. He was red hot in August with a .351 average and 16 RBI. His Gold-Glove-caliber defense has shined as well.
But the biggest reason the Rox aren’t completely buried is the one they call CarGo. Carlos Gonzalez has been an absolute monster for the Rockies this season. He is hitting a sizzling .331 with 31 home-runs and 93 ribbies.
He is in the top five of all three major categories in the NL. If it wasn’t for Joey Votto and Albert Pujols, CarGo would be the runaway choice for MVP. The five-tool star plays a magnificent left field and also has some speed, collecting 20 SBs on the year.
The Rockies have a history of late season magic; everybody remembers “Roxtober” of 2007, when they ripped off 14 wins in 15 games to sweep their way into the World Series. In 2009, the Rockies played nine games over .500 in September en route a Wild Card berth.
In both instances, the team struggled mightily throughout the spring and into the summer. But for whatever reason—depth, conditioning, concentration, or something else—the Rockies never give up till the bitter end.
Fast forward to this year and they find themselves in a eerily similar position. World beaters they are not, but the team has refused to fold.
Sure, it looks bleak for the Mile High City, but they are finally healthy again.
They have a set lineup featuring a ton of speed with Dexter Fowler and Eric Young Jr. at the top of the order. The rotation has been solid of late and a healthy Aaron Cook will be back next week. Catching the Phillies won’t be easy, but this team has as good a chance as any to give them all they can handle.
Recent history suggests that the Rockies may not be a team to count out just yet.
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As the final month of the 2010 baseball season gets under way, the imaginations of baseball fans everywhere are alive with the possibility of a triple crown winner in the National League. With statistics and probability we can put hard projections to that amazing possibility.
Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Carlos Gonzalez all have an opportunity to win the first National League triple crown since Joe Medwich of St. Louis did it 1937 (interesting note – three of the four NL Triple Crown winners since 1900 have played for St. Louis).
What this article will attempt to do is examine the probability of each player winning the triple crown. Using past performance as an indicator of future performance, we’ll examine what Pujols, Votto and Gonzalez have done in past Septembers and see if we can project what they will do this September.
We’ll also weight that historical data against their performances this season to give us a better estimate of where they’ll finish the season.
We begin with showing where each player stands on September 1st.
Albert Pujols 35 HR, 95 RBI, .316 AVG
Joey Votto 32 HR, 97 RBI, .327 AVG
Carlos Gonzalez 29 HR, 91 RBI, .326 AVG
ALBERT PUJOLS
After a slow start to the season, for Pujols standards, the great Albert has been on fire since the All-Star break. In the second half he has slammed 12 home runs, driven in 28 base runners and hit .342.
Pujols is first in HR, second in RBI and fourth in batting average.
Pujols is in the midst of his 10th major league season. As a result we have a lot of data showing how he has performed in the month of September.
Here are his last four years, all of them occurring since he and the Cardinals moved into new Busch Stadium.
2009: 30, games, 134 PA (17 walks), 6 HR, 25 RBI, .357 AVG
2008: 25 games, 103 PA (17 walks), 8 HR, 27 RBI, .321 AVG
2007: 28 games, 109 PA (18 walks), 2 HR, 19 RBI, .386 AVG
2006: 29 games, 129 PA (19 walks), 10 HR, 28 RBI, .373 AVG
The average is the most important because it’s the category Pujols has to make up the most in. He can certainly do it. In four of the last six seasons Pujols has hit over .350 in September. For his career he is a .343 hitter in the season’s final month. That’s 10 points higher than his career mark of .333.
Here are his total stats in September and October.
1055 PA 884 AB 51 HR 192 RBI .343 AVG
16.5 AB/HR
5.5 PA/RBI
Now just because Pujols has performed at a certain level in the past doesn’t mean he’ll do the same this year. It’s important to consider how he’s been doing recently in 2010. Since he has 32 games left in 2010, we’ll look at this last 32 games played.
143 PA 129 AB 13 HR 26 RBI .364 BA
9.9 AB/HR
5.5 RBI/PA
If we add in his recent performance with his average performance over the last nine years (giving a little bit more weight towards his recent performance), we get the following projections for the rest of the season:
7.5 HR(+/- 1) 24 RBI(+/- 2) .344 AVG
Which added to his totals as of September 1st, give him a final projection of:
43 HR, 119 RBI, .323 AVG
As indicated above there is a margin of error. However the projections should be 95 percent certain within the margin of error.
JOEY VOTTO
Votto has only been a full-time baseball player for his three years. In 2007 he was a September call-up for Cincinnati. He made his major league debut on September 4th of that year.
Here are his performances in September since 2007:
2009: 30 games, 126 PA (22 walks), 5 HR, 19 RBI, .385 AVG
2008: 25 games, 110 PA (15 walks), 9 HR, 20 RBI, .309 AVG
2007: 24 games, 89 PA (5 walks) 4 HR, 17 RBI, .360 AVG
For Votto we get totals of 325 plate appearances and 298 at-bats. This gives him an AB per HR of 15.6, an PA per RBI of 5.8 and an average of .340. If he can duplicate that line this year, he’ll win the batting title and have an excellent shot at the triple crown.
Votto and the Reds have 30 games left this year.
Based on his history, weighted with his recent performance, Votto is projected to hit seven or eight home runs, produce 24 to 26 RBI and hit around .345. I have weighted his 2009 and 2008 seasons more than his 2007 season in this calculation.
For Votto I have also factored in the increase in walk rate, which could reduce his home run and RBI potential, but help his batting average (as it did in 2009).
This gives him a final line of:
40 HR, 123 RBI, .333 AVG
Like Pujols, Votto’s projection is based on him starting all of the Reds remaining games. Also like Pujols, this is a safe assumption considering the Reds pursuit of a playoff spot. The only difference with Votto is that the Reds have a better chance of wrapping up a playoff spot with a few games remaining. If this happens, Votto might receive some days off before the playoffs.
CARLOS GONZALEZ
Gonzalez is the hardest to predict. Since he only has one season in Colorado, and the National League, there is a large margin of error in estimating his performance over Colorado’s final 31 games.
Here is Gonzalez’s performance over the last month of the season (almost all of this was compiled in 2009):
136 PA 121 AB 5 HR 13 RBI .273 AVG
24.2 AB/HR
10.5 PA/RBI
And more importantly his performance over his last 31 games of 2010:
135 PA 121 AB 12 HR 29 RBI .388 AVG
10 AB/HR
4.65 RBI/PA
Gonzalez really wore down in September and October last year. Like this year he had been scorching hot in August (.317, 6 HR, 13 RBI).
To get an accurate projection for Gonzalez we’ll weight his performance this year more than his performance last year. This gives us a projection for September 2010 of:
8 HR (+/- 3), 19 RBI (+/- 7) and a .342 AVG
Gonzalez’s margin of error is huge because we have so little data to go on. If he sticks to the data in the middle he’ll finish with a line of:
37 HR, 110 RBI, .326 BA
Other Players to Consider
We have to give attention to Adam Dunn’s chances of leading the NL in home runs. Dunn is second in home runs with 33, that’s two behind Pujols.
Here are Adam Dunn’s September homerun totals over the past six years:
2009: 27 games, 3 HR in 99 AB – Played for the Washington Nationals
2008: 26 games, 6 HR in 88 AB – Played for the Arizona Diamondbacks
2007: 20 games, 4 HR in 62 AB
2006: 28 games, 2 HR in 87 AB
2005: 30 games, 5 HR in 104 AB
2004: 31 games, 6 HR in 110 AB – Played for the Cincinnati Reds through 2007
That’s 26 home runs in 550 at-bats or about 21 at-bats per home run. The evidence suggests that Dunn fades as the season wanes. This probably explains why he has never lead the NL in home runs but has finished second twice and third once.
History suggests we can discard Dunn as a threat to overtake the home run lead by season’s end.
The Atlanta Braves have two hitters which could spoil the triple crown pursuit, Martin Prado and Omar Infante. Prado is hitting .317 and Infante is hitting .341.
Infante only has 370 plate appearances this year. He needs 502 to qualify for the batting title. Since being inserted into the Braves everyday staring lineup on July 29th, he has averaged 4.6 PA per game, most of them from the lead-off spot.
The Braves have 31 games left. If he starts everyone of them and maintains this pace, he’ll finish with around 512 PA.
It’s going to be close with Infante. He’ll have to play everyday and keep hitting. Infante is only a .275 career hitter, so how he’s doing it this year is a complicated mystery for another article. It’s hard to predict if he’ll keep it up and stay ahead of Votto and his projected final average of .333
Prado is a career .311 hitter with an career average of .276 in September. There’s little chance he wins the batting title, unless he significantly outperforms his past history.
WRAP-UP
Based on this projection system the final lines for these three players are:
Pujols 43 HR (+/- 1), 119 RBI (+/- 2), .323 AVG
Votto 40 HR (+/- 0.5) 123 RBI (+/- 1) , .333 AVG
Gonzalez 37 HR (+/- 3) , 110 RBI (+/- 7) , .326 AVG
Joey Votto has the best chance to win the NL triple crown. He has a 95 percent chance to win the batting title and the RBI title. He has a 22% chance to win the HR title.
Albert Pujols has a 68 percent chance to win the HR title, about a 40 percent chance to win the RBI title and only a 2.5 percent chance to win the batting crown.
Gonzalez’s chances are lower than 34 percent in each category. His total chances of winning are about 3%. Albert Pujols has a 36 percent chance of winning the National League Triple Crown.
Remember that all of these are a projections based on past performances in the season’s final month and recent performances in 2010. Many other factors will come into play in September (injuries, home/road splits, lineup strength, days of rest or another hitter emerging in one of the three categories).
If the past and present hold true though, Joey Votto has an excellent chance to win the NL Triple Crown.
I’d put Votto’s chances at about 64 percent as of September 1st.
For a look at the data and methodology used in this study click here.
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Moneyball is a baseball film starring Brad Pitt and Oscar winner Philip Seymour Hoffman, and it’s set to open sometime in 2011.
Hoffman will perform as former big league manager Art Howe, and Pitt — one of the most famous people in the universe — will be playing Billy Beane, the “mastermind” general manager of the Oakland A’s.
Can you imagine that? Beane has been so successful in Oakland that a movie is being made about his innovations and triumphs as the A’s leading man. Not only is the film being made, but Beane’s character was given to one of the most recognizable faces in the business — a sex symbol, nonetheless.
And who can blame Hollywood for wanting a piece of this action? Beane has achieved so much during his time in Oakland…wait a second…
Has a Beane-led A’s team ever won anything?
This is Beane’s 13th season as GM of the Athletics, and his club has won the World Series zero times during his reign. Wait, it gets better.
In the previous 12 seasons, the A’s have won zero American League championships.
During that time period, they’ve only appeared in the ALCS once (2006). Beane’s Athletics performed well in that series against the Detroit Tigers…if “well” means getting swept. The Tigers made quick work of the light-hitting boys from Oakland.
Simply put, these results don’t make any sense. They don’t make any sense because Michael Lewis’ Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game is likely the most popular baseball book in publishing history. It may not only be the most popular baseball book of all time, it is arguably the most popular book of all sports.
Lewis’ detailed work elevated Beane to a stratosphere never before occupied by a general manager. As far as media coverage and attention, GM’s are often secondary to the skippers that patrol the dugouts of their respective teams.
Thanks to Lewis and Moneyball, things are quite different in Oakland. Beane is the star. The managers (Howe, Ken Macha, and Bob Geren) are puppets manipulated by the front office’s many strings and hindrances.
The question is: does Beane deserve the stature he has achieved?
Many consider him the best general manager in the game; is he worthy of that distinction?
Well, at the very least, I can’t argue with his ability to evaluate starting pitching. It started with the extremely impressive trio of RHP Tim Hudson (an all-star again this year), LHP Barry Zito (having a bit of a bounce-back season), and LHP Mark Mulder.
Then there was RHP Rich Harden, an incredible but oft-injured talent. RHP Justin Duchscherer has been an all-star, and Beane’s trade for RHP Dan Haren came at exactly the right time in his career.
Today the A’s have a slew of capable young arms, including sinkerballer Trevor Cahill, flame-throwing lefty Gio Gonzalez, workhorse Dallas Braden (of the Perfect Game fame), electric closer Andrew Bailey, and potential long-term ace LHP Brett Anderson.
But the 2010 Oakland Athletics are a mere .500 ballclub. This infusion of impressive arms isn’t leading them to playoff-type success. And why, you ask?
Because Billy Beane teams don’t hit. Not since the steroid star power of 1B Jason Giambi and then-SS Miguel Tejada have the A’s had a lineup for opposing pitchers to fear. Their leading regulars this season are OF Ryan Sweeney (.294 BA) and limited-pop 1B Daric Barton (.279).
Although for Beane, it’s not about batting average; it’s about OBP and OPS. Unfortunately, Oakland’s on-base experts are 25th in the bigs in runs scored. What good is a razor-sharp understanding of the strikezone if you can’t drive in runners in scoring position?
Not much good at all, of course.
While we’re on the topic of offense, I can’t ignore the fact that Beane traded OF Carlos Gonzalez (aka “Cargo”).
Cargo, now an immensely popular member of the Colorado Rockies, is currently leading the National League in batting average at .326. In addition to that impressive average, he has 29 HR, 90 RBI, 20 SB, 86 R, and a .955 OPS.
With those outstanding numbers in mind, Cargo is locked in a nip-and-tuck MVP battle with Reds’ 1B Joey Votto. Both candidates have the statistics to warrant an MVP award, but Cargo is the better all-around player.
If the Rockies find a way into the postseason, in my opinion, Cargo should take home the hardware.
Can you imagine that? Beane, the “mastermind” at the helm of an offensively-starved franchise, traded an all-world talent when he was just 23 years old. Even worse, he traded Cargo for a one-year rental in LF Matt Holliday, who was shipped to the St. Louis Cardinals as soon as the wheels fell off the A’s 2009 season.
Go figure.
And yet, in the end, I know Billy Beane is a talented executive. I completely understand the financial deficiencies of the Oakland A’s franchise. I know that Beane has drafted and developed some excellent major league ballplayers.
But…the best general manager in professional baseball? Really?
Hollywood, a full-length movie, and Brad Pitt? Really?
I’m sorry folks, but I’m not buyin’ it…
Unless Billy Beane is sellin’ it. I’d probably rip him off in a deal.
(John Frascella is the author of “Theo-logy: How a Boy Wonder Led the Red Sox to the Promised Land,” the first and only book centered on Boston ‘s popular GM Theo Epstein. Check it out on Amazon.com or Barnes and Noble online. Follow John on Twitter @RedSoxAuthor.)
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