Kuzul

I love the Chicago Cubs. I have always loved the Chicago Cubs. Every summer, I take my sons to a game at Wrigley where they make fun of me for loving the Chicago Cubs.

And every summer the Cubs break my heart—year after year after year.

When I watch some other team lift the World Series Trophy, I promise to cheer for another team. Any other team. Except, the White Sox.

I hide my Cubs gear, and I put away all my memorabilia.

Then, in the winter, it starts.

I start to miss baseball. I start to look at free agent signings. I sneak glances at the Baseball section on the Bleacher Report. I look, then I quickly click away. I follow the team, but furtively. It’s like baseball porn.

I’m ashamed. I feel like I’m doing something wrong.

And then pitchers and catchers report. And I start to follow the Cubs, and my hate for them melts like the snow.

And in the fall, they break my heart again.

Not this year.

This year, I’ve resigned myself to another season without a title. Here’s why.

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While most of his friends call him Carl, perhaps a change back to Carlos (along with a change of scenery) will help him forget about his 2k10 campaign. 

Carl’s season was a miserable one for him. He played through a heel injury without bemoaning his condition or making excuses for his .196 average. He was the leader of the Rays and a major clubhouse presence for the winningest team in the AL, but to say it was a down year is an understatement.

His jacks dropped from 39 to 28, his OBP dropped from .356 to .325 and his OPS was a full 100 points under his career average. To all of that he added a minuscule 1 WAR, which, for a power-hitting corner infielder in the AL, is pretty abysmal (to put that in perspective, Lyle Overbay had a 1.5 WAR and Daric Barton had a 4.9).

Perhaps equally distressing as his batting average was his defense, normally an area of strength for Carl. His -2.8 UZR and, according to fangraphs, -1 DRS ranked him in the middle of the pack, far from acceptable for a guy who is a dynamite fielder when healthy.

So now Pena moves to the Windy City and the Cubbies, a team coming off of an equally awful season, but a team with renewed hope and optimism under manager Mike Quade and stud hitting coach Rudolfo Jaramillo. Gone is Derrek Lee (and thankfully Ryan Theriot), and into the middle of the order slides Pena.

The NL Central has quickly gone from a garbage division with 1-2 good teams to possibly the most competitive in baseball, with four playoff caliber squads. The Cubs have as good a shot as any of winning the division, and if they do, Pena will be a major reason why.

I fully expect him to get back to his career averages, hitting at least .250 with 35-plus jacks. Questions surround the Cubs, from the health of third baseman Aramis Ramirez to the sanity of Carlos Zambrano. If Pena is healthy again, and he says he is, there is no reason to expect anything less than a major bounceback year from one of baseball’s good dudes.

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If anybody has got it made in the game of baseball today, it’s Albert Pujols.  He is currently the hot topic of debate in the newspapers, on websites, on television, and even in conversation.  He’s currently entering the final year of his current contra – as if you all didn’t already know that – and he’s contemplating on taking his unmatched skill elsewhere.

Pujols has declared that he will not negotiate a contract extension with the Cardinals after the onset of Spring Training, and has said that he will use his no-trade clause to veto any potential trades that may be executed midseason.

Even if the Cardinals don’t entice Pujols with what he feels is a respectable offer prior to the season, they are far from out of the hunt.  Frequent big money spenders like the Yankees and Red Sox are currently not in the market for a heavy hitting first basemen, as they have Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez, respectively.

Although Gonzalez is not currently under contract for more than this 2011 season, it is assumed around the league that the Sox will retain him for most of the near future.

The Cardinals would most likely have to compete with the Cubs (Carlos Pena is only under contract for this season), Blue Jays (you never know with Alex Anthopolous), Dodgers (if they part with James Loney), and Angels (if Kendry Morales shifts to the DH position). 

Pure speculation on my part, as other teams will surely be in the mix.  From the teams mentioned above, I see the Angels with the most legitimate shot at Pujols, but again, pure speculation.

If Pujols was smart, though, he’d stay right where he is in St. Louis. 

He has that city in the palm of his hand.  Albert Pujols is a baseball god to Cardinals fans, fans who are very educated about their past baseball heroes.  If he continues his career in St. Louis, he could realistically lead the franchise in just about every career offensive category.

That’s saying something.  There have been tons of great players in Cardinals history, and to be considered amongst them is a true honor.

Even though they may be expecting somewhat of a home town discount, the Cardinals will stay pay Pujols a large chunk of change.  Although he’s never had a reason to be hated, accepting a smaller contract to play for his current team would only boost his popularity.

Baseball needs another one-team superstar, and being one of them would enhance his popularity even more.  Players today just don’t stay with one team anymore, as they are always interested in “testing the market.”  Money speaks in today’s game and hopefully Pujols chooses not to listen.

As good as Pujols is, and he’s really good, there is always an adjustment period when playing for a new club.  Optimistically, he’d love for those new team jitters to get played out in Spring Training, but you never know what could happen. 

Realistically, it won’t lead to that much of a drop in his production because, well, he’s Albert Pujols, but fans love to see newly acquired players produce.  If he stumbles out of the gate, he may be in for one heck of a tenure with his new team.

Do I want Pujols to stay? Yes, I most certainly do.

Do I think he will?  It’s very tough to gauge it at this point.

He seems very serious at this point, and a serious player is a dangerous player.  Look out for Albert this season, as he’s motivated and playing for that next contract.

As if pitchers needed to worry any more about him.

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The Red Sox are my sleeper pick.

This prediction comes in spite of their heavy losses in sluggers Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre.

The Red Sox, though, offset those losses by adding power hitting 1B Adrian Gonzalez, filling their gaping hole at the position, as Kevin Youkilis was not getting the job done.  Now Youkilis has been kicked over to the other side of the diamond where he will have a difficult time adjusting to a position he’s played at for only 1,606 innings his career.

In addition, Boston lured Carl Crawford over with the promise that he can play in a place without the fear of being overshadowed.  He will fit in nicely in left field.

Never has an underdog had such an established roster. 

A big issue with the 2010 team was their amount of injuries, spread nicely over the course of the season so as not to look suspicious.

Furthermore, the Red Sox starting rotation, looking for a boost, will get one when John Lackey is encouraged by the organization to wear Curt Schilling’s bloody sock, but not the famous one. 

Thanks to David Ortiz’s terrific second half of the season (after hitting .054 through June), the Red Sox will overcome their demons and end the curse, reaching the playoffs for the first time in two years. 

Finally, sensing their similarities to their rivals in New York, the Red Sox will decide to find a new rival, and it will be BP oil.  Now aren’t you back on their side? 

The Toronto Blue Jays will finally reach their potential and finish second. 

With their mighty sluggers, the Jays will fight for the wild card.  They will be led by Jose Bautista, who was consistent in 2010 and consistently mediocre every year before that. 

Based on Bautista’s incredible performance last season, the Jays will bank on the same happening in 2011 to one of their other mediocre hitters with at least moderate power, or all of them.  My pick is Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, and Travis Snider.  And Jose Bautista, who will prove that last season was the true baseline of his stardom.  He will hit 73.1 home runs next season, breaking Barry Bonds’ single season mark by 0.1 after the league simply decides to give it to him because “it’s the right thing to do.” 

Behind the budding strength of their starting rotation, the Blue Jays will thrive, breaking the .500 barrier for the first time since—wait, they’ve been over .500 four of the last five years. 

Correction, behind their young starting pitchers, the Blue Jays will develop higher expectations, sure to come back to bite them in the long run. 

Also, their bullpen will learn to be more apathetic.  Blown saves will follow.

The outlook for the 2010 Toronto Blue Jays is a bright one, for the first time since whenever they will become relevant (or whatever).

Behind a new youth movement and a commitment to not spending money they don’t have, the Tampa Bay Rays will ride a wave of success to third place

Their imminent third place finish will be a drop from last year’s second place finish, but it will be seen as a vast improvement to their predicted sixth place finish.

The departure of Carlos Pena, who will be considered by many to be the “missing piece,” will open up a spot for Dan Johnson, who will wow fans with his .198 batting average. 

He will depart the next season with a $10 million deal with the Cubs. 

During the home opener, the Rays’ organization will retire number 13.  Nothing will ever be the same. 

With the other departures of, hold on let me get ready: Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, and most likely the increasingly desperate Rafael Soriano, spots will be opened up for future Jason Bartlett, future Matt Garza, Lance Cormier, Mike Ekstrom, Chad Qualls, and Kyle Farnsworth. 

Lastly, you may remember 3B Evan Longoria’s claim that the fans did not show up to Tampa Bay home games.  What you may not have heard is when the fans responded, “Sure we don’t attend” as they put their masks back on. 

The 2011 slogan for the Baltimore Orioles is “Success In Imports.” 

“Nick Markakis and the Mercenaries” will take the field next season unfamiliar with each other’s playing styles.  They may not even know each other’s names.

Mark Reynolds will be known as “one two three,” Derrek Lee as “that one guy who fought Chris Young,” and Brian Roberts, an Oriole veteran, will become “that guy who’s just sort of been here.” 

Younger players like Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold will sit cross-legged in front of Roberts as he tells tales of what the roster used to look like in his “hay day.”

“We had a man by the name of Rafael Palmeiro and a guy named Surhoff.”  “Woooooowww,” the youngsters will say in awe, “Did you have cleats back then?”

Manager Buck Showalter, most well known for guiding the Texas Rangers to three consecutive third place finishes in ’04-’06, will channel his inner “True Grit.”  In the process, he will take advantage of the Coen Brothers’ new film and model himself more after Jeff Bridges’, Rooster Cogburn. 

The players, not knowing how to respond to this, simply will ignore him. 

After a few weeks and becoming tired of the Rooster Cogburn character, Showalter will go onto compare himself to Jeff Bridges’ character in Seabiscuit.  Because of this, he will compare his pitchers to workhorses…then race horses. Then he’ll treat them like true race horses. 

The young Oriole staff must hope they don’t wear down. 

The New York Yankees will hire a new GM who looks eerily like the Sith Lord. 

Along the way, they will finish in last place after their makeshift rotation fails down the stretch, and by stretch, I mean June onward. 

CC Sabathia will dominate opponents for the first few innings of the year. Then he will get tired. 

AJ Burnett will become the new staff ace after all the pressure of New York baseball is lifted off his shoulders. After a few quality starts, the pressure will return tenfold.  He will never recover.

Phil Hughes will become the Phil Hughes of 2010.  He will continually be overlooked by everyone who cannot take their eyes off of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez’s receding hair-line. 

Andy Pettitte will come back for 2011, retiring from baseball only between his starts.  For this reason, he will not be in great shape.  The Yankees, used to Clemens antics, will not mind as long as Pettitte makes more than he’s worth. 

As far as the lineup goes, Derek Jeter will act as though nothing weird happened this offseason and it will be totally awkward.  Alex Rodriguez will gossip around the clubhouse to make sure the attention is not on his own declining average and OBP.

Brett Gardner, seeing Jeter’s success, will dive into the crowd, make unwarranted jump throws (from the outfield), make a flip play, win multiple undeserved gold gloves, and demand an outrageous contract for his worth. He will be loved in the city of New York. 

Robinson Cano will hit the cover off the ball like the stud that he is, then receive a cover article on Sports Illustrated, and then promptly be overlooked again.

Nick Swisher is awesome. 

Welcome to 2011, the A-Rod and Jeter show.  Is Mariano Rivera even still around?  

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The Tampa Bay Rays have gone through baseball’s version of a liquidation sale in the 2010 offseason. It is almost as if any player with any value has left the team or has been rumored to be traded with few exceptions.

Starting with the expected departure of Carl Crawford to the Boston Red Sox and the subsequent departures of players including Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett the team will look very different in 2011.

When a fan asked David Price on twitter about how the team will be different in 2011, he responded jokingly by saying, “the field will still look the same.”

Here is an examination of the impact the departed players will have on the Rays in 2011.

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The Cubs have suffered some disappointing seasons lately. I’m not sarcastically commenting on the last 100 years; rather, I am talking about the problems they have had since 2003. They were 5 outs away from the World Series, and they have not neared that feat since. I’m not going wallow in pity, especially now that Carlos Pena is on the way. He has been a leader for the Rays, a previously horrible franchise, and helped in their run to the World Series 2 years ago. I’m not saying his arrival will deliver the Cubs to the World Series (although that would be wonderful), but I do have 5 reasons why he will be able to help the Cubs win the division.

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You don’t need to tell Chicago Cubs fans how long it’s been since they won the World Series. The 2010 season was another forgettable summer for the Cubs, but there are players available that can help them improve for 2011.

One of those players is Carlos Pena, who the Cubs signed on Tuesday. The Cubs need more power in their lineup and a better infield defense, and Pena will help them in both areas.

The Cubs could also use help in their pitching rotation, especially in their bullpen. The Cubs have had a respectable payroll the last decade, but they need to start spending money more wisely.

Now let’s look at five free agents who could help the Cubs return to the postseason in 2011.

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Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee are still available in Major League Baseball Free Agency. Some of the major names have already landed with new teams including Jayson Werth and Victor Martinez.

That leads to the question of who are the best remaining free agents. While it is a simpler process to measure these players from a numbers standpoint, who are the best value players remaining. In other words, who provides the most “bang for the buck”.

Let’s take a look at the 50 most valuable players still available on the market.

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While Day 2 of the Winter Meetings were not as busy as the first (at least in terms of action), let’s take a look at the potential fallout from the moves that were made:

The Cubs signed 1B Carlos Pena.

Pena had a terrible 2010 campaign, hitting .196 with 28 HR and 84 RBI in 484 AB.  The fall in power (he had hit 46, 31 and 39 over the previous three seasons) was not due to the number of AB, as he has never had more than 500 AB in a season. 

Part of that is due to his stellar walk rate (he’s been at 14.9 percent or better each of the past four years).  The problem was that his fly ball rate was down to 40.6 percent, after being over 50 percent the previous two years.  A rebound there will certainly lead to another 30+ HR campaign, especially as he takes advantage of the wind blowing out in the summer months at Wrigley.

His average struggled due to a poor BABIP (.222), something you would have to expect him to rebound from.  While he’s never going to be a “good” average hitter, due to a career 31.2 percent strikeout rate, he’s definitely better than he showed last season.

Moving to the NL and the middle of the Cubs lineup, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him hit around .250 with 35 HR and 100 RBI.  That’s not an elite option at a deep position, but it certainly will have value.  Don’t ignore him over his poor 2010.

The Rockies signed INF Ty Wigginton.

With Todd Helton and Ian Stewart starting at the corners, Wigginton appears to be coming in to serve a reserve role.  However, that always seems to be the intention of teams, yet Wigginton always manages to earn regular playing time.  He’s coming off a year where he hit 22 HR with 76 RBI.  Yes, he struggled to a .248 average, but an improvement to his .270 BABIP will help to offset that (he has a career .287 mark).

He spent over 20 games at 1B, 2B and 3B in 2010, meaning he has eligibility at all three positions in the majority of formats.  It would not be a surprise to see him playing four or five times a week as a super utility, spending time across the infield (and at DH when they are playing in AL ballparks). 

With no one having a clear-cut lead in the 2B race, it’s possible he ultimately claims that job.  The bottom line is, in deeper formats, he’s going to be worth owning as a depth option.  Since 2003 he’s had under 400 AB just twice (once was in 2005 when he played in just 57 games).  Somehow he just manages to find at bats and is a source of power at a position you don’t allows find it (2B), stash him away.

The Mets signed P D.J. Carrasco.

When he was traded from Pittsburgh to Arizona, I thought that he could be given a chance to close considering how pathetic the Diamondbacks bullpen was.  While that didn’t happen, he posted another solid season overall, with a 3.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  He’s not going to have fantasy viability, barring something dramatic in New York, as Francisco Rodriguez is currently looking like the closer and Bobby Parnell next in line.

The Mets signed C Ronny Paulino.

He’s being brought in to face left-handed pitching as part of a platoon with Josh Thole.  That’s a perfect role for him, but it doesn’t bring much fantasy appeal.  Thole is the better catcher to own, but even he is going to be restricted to two-catcher formats.  He offers little power and figures to get ample days of rest now that Paulino is in the mix.

The Pirates signed OF Matt Diaz.

It will be interesting to see if he gets regular playing time or not, but Diaz figures to be a platoon player.  He does a solid job against left-handed pitching, but if that’s all he’s used for he’s not going to have value.  At this point in time, it’s better to leave him on the waiver wire unless the plans change.

The Dodgers signed OF Tony Gwynn Jr.

He brings speed, but has hit just .244 in 924 career at bats.  The Dodgers have Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier locked in as starting outfielders and while Gwynn could challenge for the left field job, chances are he serves a reserve role.  Even if he earns a starting job (an unlikely event), he’s only going to have value for those in need of stolen bases.

What are your thoughts on these moves?  Who is the biggest winner?  Who are you now targeting?

Make sure to check out our early 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 20 Starting Pitchers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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It’s official: The Chicago Cubs have signed left-handed first baseman Carlos Pena to a one-year, $10 million deal, something that will likely make a lot of Cubs fans happy and confused at the same time.

While this certainly isn’t a long-term fix, considering that Pena is 33, the Cubs could really benefit from his services for the year.

For one, he easily tops the other two true first basemen on the roster (Micah Hoffpauir and Xavier Nady) with 28 home runs and 84 RBI in 484 at-bats, a fairly impressive mark. Pena is also still a Gold Glove-caliber fielder. The Cubs really needed the defensive help.

Pena also gives the Cubs a valued asset in that he adds another left-handed power-hitting presence alongside third baseman Aramis Ramirez. While their ability to score has been decent, adding another lefty presence in the lineup simply adds another dimension to their game.

In spite of all of this, though, there are still some scary knocks against Pena.

For one, his injury situation from last year may cause some to question this pickup. Pena sat for a good while last year due to a torn plantar fascia, and while that doesn’t tend to be a recurring problem (given the proper time to heal), the fact that he is 33 and showing signs of injury issues should be a little intimidating for the Cubs brass.

Pena also had a tough year statistically last season. Sure, he may have put 28 over the wall and brought 84 players home, but he ended up with a career low .196 batting average and he struck out 158 times in 484 at bats.

It’s hard to know how this one will turn out.

For the price they are paying for him, the Cubs may be getting a deal. He adds a lot of dimensions to their game that will play well for Chicago. However, it seems to me that the risks may outweigh the benefits here.

Should Pena go down with another injury, he becomes useless. Should he slug another sub-.200 season, he will only hamper the Cubs offensively.

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