Amidst a failing 2010 campaign, a messy divorce between owners, and uncertainty regarding funds for next season, the Los Angeles Dodgers have several key players that will be eligible for free agency next season.
Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti has said that, given a likely lack of funds stemming from the McCourt divorce, he is uncertain regarding the approaching free agency period.
Given the circumstances, here are possible outcomes for all of the possible 2011 Dodgers free agents.
Fantasy Baseball’s Pitching Line of the Week:
C.J. Wilson (SP-TEX) 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, W
C.J. Wilson chucked eight innings of four-hit baseball, striking out three batters and failed to surrender a walk in a 1-0 victory over the Los Angeles Angels on Friday. Wilson retired 17 of the last 18 batters he faced before giving way to young Neftali Feliz, who saved his 27th game for the Rangers and helped Wilson improve to 9-5 on the season.
See Win Probability Game Graph of C.J.’s Win Courtesy of FanGraphs
Prior to the 1-0 victory over the Angels, Wilson was 8-5 with a 3.23 ERA and had accumulated a string of nine consecutive quality starts.
Wilson, the pride of Fountain Valley High School, attended Santa Ana Junior College, where he was named MVP of Orange Empire Conference and California’s Junior College Player of the Year Award in 2000. The following year, he was drafted in the fifth round (121st overall) by the Texas Rangers out of Loyola Marymount University.
While cruising through the minor leagues in 2003, Wilson suffered an elbow injury which required “Tommy John” surgery. C.J. needed the entire 2004 season to recover and returned to AA action in 2005.
Wilson debuted for the Texas Rangers on June 10, 2005 at 24 years of age. He went 1-7 in 24 appearances, finished with a 6.94 ERA and a 1.67 K:BB ratio.
From 2006-2009, C.J. primarily worked out of the bullpen. Following the Rangers trade of Eric Gagne in 2007, Wilson was asked to step into the closers role. He successfully converted his first 11 save opportunities for Texas. Wilson was once again named the Rangers closer in 2008 and converted in 24 of 28 attempts. Despite not being named the closer in 2009, Wilson still earned 14 saves.
Wilson features a fastball, sinker, slider and change-up in his repertoire. Wilson is currently owned in 63 percent of Y! leagues.
The “Double Dipper” is a starting pitcher who will get two starts in the same week. Each Sunday we will preview top three options in each league and highlight streaming options for players owned in less than 50% of Y! leagues.
The No Brainers in the NL:
Josh Johnson/FLA (@ SF, @ SD) – CY front runner. That’s enough.
Stephen Strasburg/WAS (vs. ATL, vs. PHI) – Tough match-ups, cap on IP, but take his K’s to the bank.
Chad Billingsley/LAD (@ SD, @ SF) – 2-0 in three starts against SD & SF this year.
The No Brainers in the AL:
Felix Hernandez/SEA (@ CHW, @ MIN) – 63:10 K:BB & 8 QS in last 8.
Francisco Liriano/MIN (@ KC, vs. SEA) – The “Mona Lisa” of match-ups..wait..she’s ugly?
CC Sabathia/NYY (@ CLE, @ TB) – Hasn’t lost since 5/23. 10 straight QS.
Warning: Streaming can be lethal. The following are owned in 50% or less of Y! leagues.
Jorge De La Rosa/COL (vs. PIT, vs. CHC) – Last start looked like the JDL of old
Brandon Morrow/TOR (vs. BAL, vs. CLE) – 10.01 K/9 will get him the nod
Jon Niese/NYM (vs. STL, vs. ARI) – Three ER or less in last five outings
Joel Pineiro/LAA (vs. BOS, vs. TEX) – The Russian Roulette of “streaming”
Bronson Arroyo/CIN (@ MIL, vs. ATK) – Six QS in last nine.
Don’t Touch ‘Em
Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brad Bergeson, Zach Duke, Wesley Wright
Week 17 One Start Stars Owned in 50% or Less
Tommy Hunter/TEX 49% Y! – Saturday @ LAA (TBD) – 8-0 in 10 starts
Brett Cecil/TOR 30% Y! – Friday vs. CLE (Masterson) – Last three were QS. Daniel Hudson/CWS 5% Y! – Friday @ OAK (Mazzaro) – Tons of K potential
Who will win the pitching duel of the week: Josh Johnson or Matt Cain?
Who will be the best 2-Start Pitcher owned in 50 percent or less in week 17?
Leave a comment, or reply to us on Twitter @TheFantasyFix
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More Good Reads from the Fix Fellas!
Fantasy Baseball’s First Half Awards: MCab, Pujols & More!
MLB Records Are Meant To Be Broken! A Fantasy Fix Roundtable Adventure
What a Bunch of Dicks: Baseball’s Funniest Names
Will Matt Kemp & Ryan Braun Go 30/30 in 2010?
MiLB articles
The Fantasy Fix’s AAA Farm Report: June 30, 2010
The Fantasy Fix’s AA Farm Report: Kyle Drabek’s No-Hitter & More!
The Fantasy Fix’s A-Ball Report: Big Numbers but who’s the real deal?
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
The MLB trade deadline is just two weeks away and talks are beginning to heat up around the league.
This year’s deadline is sure to be filled with sellers as a lot of teams are looking to free up cap room in an ever-struggling economy. Despite a meager bank account and not many prospects for improvement, the Dodgers view themselves as buyers.
The lack of a solid starting rotation has prompted the Dodgers to reach out to several teams regarding pitching, but the Dodgers seem unwilling to part with core talent. However, with pressure mounting and GM Ned Colletti sweating, those “No’s” might just be “Not yet’s.”
Here are a few possibilities for Dodger trades, although any talks of the Dodgers making moves may be like panning for gold in a tar pit.
It’s finally over for right handed knuckleballer Charlie Haeger. The Dodgers designated Haeger for assignment on Friday, effectively ending Haeger’s days as a Dodger.
The 26-year-old holds a 1-5 record as a Dodger while allowing 35 earned runs in just 30 innings pitched.
Haeger never really got on track in two abbreviated seasons for L.A., and spent several days on the DL in two separate stints with Planter Fasciitis in 2010. During both minor league rehabs, Haeger was impressive and earned a promotion back to the major league roster.
However, following his second activation from the DL, Haeger was pulled one out away from qualifying for a win with a four run lead. The surprise move raised eyebrows and confused the knuckleballer. Less than 24 hours later, he was DFA’d.
The Dodgers now have ten days to trade Haeger, release him, or after clearing waivers, assign him to Triple-A Albuquerque.
It is not likely Haeger will garner much attention on the trade market. However, he is young and has plenty of time to perfect the dancing pitch that is so rare in baseball.
With Vicente Padilla resuming his spot in the rotation, and Chad Billingsley on the disabled list, the Dodgers have four set starters: Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Hiroki Kuroda and John Ely.
Expect relievers such as Jeff Weaver and Carlos Monasterios to make spot starts during Billingsley’s rehab. Once Billingsley returns, Ely will most likely continue filling the fifth starter position.
To fill the newly vacated roster spot, the Dodgers have called up reliever Jon Link, one of two pitchers (John Ely) acquired in the trade that sent Juan Pierre to the White Sox.
The call-up is Link’s fourth already this season, but he has a combined 4.1 innings pitched in four games.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
If you didn’t see this coming, you truly know what it means to be a fan and love blindly.
The Dodgers stumbled into interleague play with a pitching staff turning out one brilliant performance after another, while the offense provided just enough of a pulse to keep the team alive.
Minus a couple of run-scoring outbursts, one against the Cardinals and a week later against the Reds, the Dodgers have scored five runs or fewer in 14 of 18 games in June, including back-to-back 1-0 wins against the hapless Diamondbacks.
It was only a matter of time before the thin starting rotation began to falter and the bullpen was exposed for its lack of effectiveness.
The routine goes something like this: The starting pitchers sharpen up and therefore go deeper into games. The bullpen, therefore, doesn’t have to participate in extended inning appearances and can get by while being effective in short relief.
The offense then simply has to cover the gap. A small number of runs will be held up by the opposition’s lack of offense during superb Dodgers pitching.
The Dodgers experienced success with Hiroki Kuroda remaining healthy, a young pitcher not preceded by a scouting report, and a 22-year-old work horse fronting a veteran staff.
However, more injuries to the starting rotation and bullpen, along with borrowed time catching up to John Ely and the Dodgers who are finding themselves dropping to third place in the N.L. West.
The offense that went previously undetected now looks like a watermelon on the radar screen, having been swept by the Angels and the Red Sox.
American League teams specialize in hitting while having no pitcher spot to account for, and the comparison between American League offensive production and the lack of Dodgers production was made glaringly obvious.
Andre Ethier’s batting average has steadily dropped to .318 since returning from the Disabled List. Matt Kemp went through a 0-16 slump and saw his batting average plummet to .258 with just a small handful of RBI in June.
The Dodgers continue to struggle to produce with runners in scoring position and have their hands full this week. The Dodgers are set to take on the Angels for a three-game series in Anaheim.
So where do the Dodgers go from here? They have signed Kiko Calero and Claudio Vargas, figures on the horizon that Los Angeles hopes are not a mirage.
The veteran pitchers will come in with low expectations; they simply have to stay healthy and will already be faring better than current Dodgers pitchers. Their assignment, if called upon, will be to eat up innings and provide spot starts while rotation starters Chad Billingsley and Carlos Monasterios lick their wounds.
Vicente Padilla is back just in time, as his start Saturday bridged a gap and bailed out manager Joe Torre, who was relieved to be out of a pickle. Padilla wasn’t overly impressive, but kept the team in the neighborhood before the bullpen gave it away.
If the current trend holds up, fans can expect some serious shuffling of names on the active roster, with notable names and new faces adorning the blue and red.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
A very thin starting LA rotation is about to get thinner. The Los Angeles Dodgers placed RHP Chad Billingsley on the 15-day DL because of a groin strain—the move is retroactive to June 12th.
Billingsley has had a real up and down season in 2010. In his first six starts the Dodger righty was 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA. Then, in his next 5 starts, Billingsley went 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA. Over his last two starts, Billingsley is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA.
So as you can see, not everything has been roses for Billingsley in 2010.
With Billingsley hurt, the Dodgers will now have a rotation that features Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, John Ely, Ronald Belisario, and Vincente Padilla (back on Saturday). That is mediocre at best.
Of course, the Dodgers will survive this because that is the way things go for ball clubs led by Joe Torre. Even if the Dodgers lose their entire pitching staff to injury, Torre will find someone to plug in who will go 10-0 with a 2.55 ERA down the stretch.
You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @theghostofmlg
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Just when it seemed as if things were getting brighter for the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching staff, the team was dealt another blow on Tuesday afternoon, when they announced that Chad Billingsley would be placed on the 15-day disabled list with a groin injury.
According to team reports, Billingsley suffered the injury sometime during his start in Friday’s 10-1 loss against the Los Angeles Angels.
The results of an MRI revealed nothing, but Billingsley still showed signs of strain in a throwing session on Tuesday. Dodgers manager Joe Torre quickly determined that the disabled list would be a wise precaution.
“It’s [a groin injury], the one you can predict the least, because you can warm up, you can have a simulated game, but until you get on the mound and push off in a regular game, you’re never sure,” Torre said. “So we’re going to take the safe route.”
Depending on the exact nature of the injury, groin problems can be very serious; the best medicine, in most cases, is just plain rest.
After Friday’s defeat to the Angels, Billingsley’s season record was 6-4 with a 4.34 earned run average. His next scheduled start was set for the series finale on Thursday against the Cincinnati Reds.
John Ely (3-3, 3.38 ERA) will be moved up in the rotation to start in Billingsley’s place, while Carlos Monasterios will start on Friday to fill the void in the rotation.
Monasterios (3-1, 2.98 ERA) assumed he was headed to the bullpen with the return of starter Vicente Padilla, who is scheduled to pitch Saturday at Boston.
Padilla’s start will mark only his fifth of the season and his first since going on the DL with a wrist injury in late April.
Critics around the majors are already saying that this is an “injury of convenience” for the Dodgers, because otherwise, Los Angeles would have been forced to reassign someone on the roster to make room for Padilla.
Many thought the player likely for re-assignment was Justin Miller, who has no options left on his contract. Miller was 0-0 with a 3.48 ERA in seven appearances and 10.1 innings pitched for the Dodgers this season.
It was doubtful that Miller would have cleared waivers. Several teams already showed interest in Miller as middle relievers are at a premium this time of the year for many squads throughout MLB.
Middle relief is plentiful for the Dodgers right now, both on the big league roster and throughout the farm system.
However, questions are still circulating in Dodgerland about acquiring another starter, but any trade talks being made in the front office are unknown at this time.
Dodgers owner and chairman Frank McCourt is still insisting that money is not a factor in the daily operation of the baseball club.
Whether or not Los Angeles will make any moves in terms of obtaining a starting pitcher before the trade deadline on July 31 remains to be seen.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
The Fantasy Fix (www.thefantasyfix.com) asked five of the top up-and-coming Fantasy Experts out there the following question:
As we approach the 2010 All-Star Break, who will you be targeting to trade for as a buy-low candidate or sleeper? Name one batter and one pitcher that will make a big 180 for the 2nd half.
Let’s hear some realistic and unique options.
Batter: Carlos Pena, 1B, TB
My, what a disaster Pena’s season has been, at least up until his barrage of home runs last week. Trend or slight uptick? I say it should be more trend than mirage.
If you’ve been paying attention, you already know he is streaky (see last week for example). But what you might not see is that he can’t possibly continue to be as horrible as he was in the early going. Let’s look at some numbers to date (valid through Wednesday June 9, 2010):
BABIP = .200 (.250 in 2009, .283 in career)
Walk Rate = 13.4% (15.3% in 2009, 13.3% in career)
GB% = 44.1% (29.0% in 2009, 36.2% in career)
FB% = 44.9% (54.1% in 2009, 45.7% in career)
LD% = 11.0% (16.8% in 2009, 18.0% in career)
What does this all mean?
Well, since his strikeout rate is right on par with previous performances, it explains a lot. First, his BABIP indicates that he has been very unlucky on batted balls into play. As compared to career numbers, he could be batting up to 50 points above his current .184 on luck alone.
A deeper look at his GB/FB/LD split shows that he is hitting the ball weakly into the infield a ton this year (GB percent is a career high and LD percent is a career low for him in seasons of 100+ AB). Even a speed demon, like Juan Pierre, would have trouble getting on base with those splits.
The root cause of those symptoms is his Chase Percentage (O-Swing percent), or how many pitches outside of the strike zone he is hacking at, which sits at 31.2 percent (also a career high for seasons of 100+AB). That may be a result of pitchers trying to keep him off balance by throwing more changeups and cutters, rather than fastballs, which he can lace into the stands.
Since his walk rate is holding steady as compared to career averages, I say it is only a matter of time before Pena settles down and adjusts to the pitching mix. Buy now and get the good part of his season stats on your roster.
Pitcher: Jason Hammel, SP, COL
The Rockies have really improved their rotation over the past few years, and the most under-appreciated member of the starting cast is Jason Hammel. Ignore the ERA he has posted to date, because much of that damage was done back when he was battling a nagging groin injury, the same one that sent him to the DL for a couple of weeks in early May.
Now that he is back and healthy, I see nothing but sunny skies ahead.
Hammel actually pitched very well in 2009, despite finishing with a 4.33 ERA. If you look deeper at FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), or what he would have done with even luck and quality fielding across the board, he should have finished with an ERA of 3.71.
Curiously enough, his FIP to date is 3.73, almost identical to what he posted last season. Since the start of the 2009 season, he has also fixed problems with gopheritis (0.87 HR/9 over that span, 1.07 in career) and free passes (BB/9 in the 2.55 range, 3.14 in career).
For the third stright year, Hammel is forcing groundballs at least 46 percent of the time a batter makes contact, and he has kept his FB percentage right around 30 percent. You can attribute some of this to experience and the rest to his move away from changeups (11.2%, 9.5%, and 5.6% in 2008/2009/2010 to date) to more of a focus on curveballs (10.0%, 15.6%, 16.9%).
Whatever the reason, Jason Hammel has been pitching like a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher for 39 starts now, so it’s time to give the kid his due. The best part is that he can be had for a waiver claim in the majority of leagues, so the price is most certainly right!
Tommy Landry, co-founder of RotoExperts.com, has a long track record of success in entrepreneurship, marketing, and the fantasy sports business. You can also join in the conversation with him on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/Tommy_Landry
Batter: Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR
Hill was a guy I earned a lot of money on last year. The problem is that I got him for $1 in keeper leagues, so there was no way I could let him go. Knowing this, I knew he was a classic stay-away guy in 2010 because of the over-achievement.
What killed Hill was the hamstring injury right off the bat. Some of Hill’s fantasy numbers are very ugly and scream stay away.
But if you dig deeper and look at why Hill has been so bad this year, here is what you will find:
• Contact Rate is 83 percent (only a matter of time before they become base hits)
• Walk rate is up from 5.7 percent to 11.7 percent (very good indicator of improved patience)
• BABIP is .178 vs. .288 last year (terrible luck)
• BA is .188 vs. .286 last year (BABIP and BA correlation)
• FB percentage up to 49 percent vs. 41 percent last year
2B is very deep in the American League and in the majors overall. Hill could be a guy you use at UTIL/MI and get great insurance.
I think right now is the perfect time to get Hill and you can still get him very cheap. Buy now and speculate that his second half numbers will turn around.
Pitcher: Brandon Morrow, SP, TOR
It feels like Morrow has been around for 10 years and every year, we wait for the breakout.
He never got a true shot to settle into a rotation spot with Seattle and then was dealt to Toronto in the Cliff Lee/Roy Halladay deal. Going with pitchers in the AL East is always a tough choice, but again, like Hill, there are some underliers that show me Morrow could be on his way to truly developing into that fantasy relevant pitcher.
• K/9 10.41 – always love guys who get the k’s
• .341 BABIP – this number is bound to settle in at .290.-.300
• June has a .254 BABIP
• 5.48 ERA but XERA 3.53
• 4.52 BB/9—this number has to come down for Morrow to start being a good pitcher
• June has a 1.29 BB/9
I recently added Morrow in two leagues that have deep pitching requirements and I love the upside. In the past, guys, like Jonathan Sanchez and Jorge De La Rosa, have had similar profiles and finally broke through.
Michael Rathburn: Fantasy Baseball writer for MidWestSportsFans.com and www.aroundthecooler.com
Follow Michael at http://twitter.com/cooler_guy
Batter: Adam Lind, OF, TOR
Highly-touted coming into this year (average draft position, third or fourth round) and coming off a monster season that finally saw him put his potential to good use, Lind has so far had a horrendous start to 2010. .209 average, eight home runs, a paltry 26 runs, and 31 RBI — all this for the team leading the majors in home runs — and just 49 hits.
Yet, if you look deeper, some of his stats echo how atrocious he has been. Yes, he is chasing more pitches outside the strike zone than last year. Yes, he is striking out a slightly higher rate than last year. Yes, he has shown an alarming drop in power to center field.
BUT, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .247, or nearly 60 points below his career BABIP of .305. That’s right — SIXTY points. Aside from his stint with the Jays in 2007, when he proved he was not yet ready for the big time, he has never had a BABIP lower than .317.
In the minors, his BABIP routinely reached the .360s and higher.
I don’t expect Lind to hit 25 home runs the rest of the season, but from this point forward, I expect that as his luck changes, so do his stats, and for the better.
Pitcher: Jake Peavy, SP, CHW
People forget that he’s still not so far removed from major arm surgery and had to deal with switching leagues, going from a great pitcher’s park to one that’s horrible, and learn a whole new set of hitters.
I think he’ll improve because we’ve seen flashes—his K/9, BB/9 and GB (ground ball) percentage have improved month-by-month this season, and he is still averaging 7.5 K’s per 9 innings this year.
Plus, his LOB percent is the lowest of his career and his BABIP is close to the highest — not a good combination to have.
I expect, though, that as his luck starts changing and he leaves more runners on, his K rate will continue to rise, his ERA will fall, and he will pitch deeper into games and help himself to more wins.
Jesse Mendelson is Partner and Senior Writer for www.fantasybaseball101.com
For more up-to-the-minute analysis, trade mediation, roster evaluation, weekly tip, chats, and more, make sure to check out www.fantasybaseball101.com and follow us on Twitter on @fb101.
Batter: Gordon Beckham, 2B, CHW
Gordon Beckham has basically played like garbage and polluted the fantasy landscape thus far.
His .206 Batting Average and one home run have left a single tear welling in the eye of his owners. Some people have a deep abiding respect for the natural beauty that was once this highly touted prospect; and some people don’t.
Gordo is currently owned in only 38 percent of Yahoo! leagues. If he isn’t a free agent in your league, his recent 102 At Bat streak without an Extra Base Hit should make him a cheap buy.
What many people don’t realize is that Beckham has been plagued a .250 BABIP. His 15.5 percet Line Drive and 51 percent Ground Ball Percentages suggest this number should be higher. The league average for BABIP is .298.
Beckham has also been unlucky with a 1.9 Home Run to Fly Ball Percentage. The league average for HR/FB percentage is around 10-11 percent. The eighth-overall pick in the 2008 draft is much too talented to continue hitting this poorly.
The White Sox GM, Kenny Williams, sat down with Gordon and told him to go back to his aggressive approach at the plate and he has responded well. Since the two had a pow-wow, Beckham has strung together a four-game hit streak, going 4-for-13 with three doubles in the process.
Last season, Beckham hit 14 HR and stole seven bases in 103 games, his price won’t be any lower than it is now. If you need some cheap, productive help at the 2B position, look no further.
Pitcher: Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD
Chad Billingsley is a well-known gunslinger. Tickets to Buffalo Billingsley’s Wild NL West Show could be expensive, unless you can find an owner who is fed up with his 1.40 WHIP.
Billingsley currently ranks 84th among all SP eligible pitchers on Yahoo! and his overall rank of 289 may help you acquire his services at a reasonable price. Chad’s ugly WHIP is not the result of him walking too many batters; he has actually reduced his walk rate from 3.94 BB/9 down to 3.17 BB/9.
The issue is his .332 BABIP. He has a career BABIP of .308 and he is actually giving up less line drives this year than he has in the past (17.4 LD percentage). His 1.40 WHIP should be considered bad luck, not bad pitching.
He is still striking out eight batters per nine and inducing a good number of ground balls (47.8 percent, 1.38 GB/FB), so I would also consider his 69.2 percent Strand Rate to be unlucky.
His career average for LOB percentage is 75.4 percent. His owners may believe that Billingsley is pitching his worst ball in the past four years, but all this adds up for me to believe that he should be posting the best numbers of his career when it comes to ERA and WHIP.
Look for a big turnaround in the second half of the season.
Andrew Holm (aka MDS) is the brainchild behind http://milliondollarsleeper.com. Follow Andrew on twitter at http://twitter.com/andrewakamds
Batter: Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC
Aramis Ramirez’s season has been a disaster of epic proportions. The once-mighty run producer has seen his numbers washed away by a tsunami of strikeouts and lazy fly balls. By some measures, he’s been the worst regular position player in all of baseball.
Now on the 15-day DL due to a strained thumb, he also hasn’t done much to shed the “injury-prone” label that he’s earned over the past few years.
Since A-Ram has never had a stretch this bad, I’m willing to assume that the thumb problem has exacerbated his usual slow start. Sure, he’s on the downside of his career, but he’s about to turn 32, not 37.
Just last year, he put up a .317 BA with 15 HR and 65 RBI, despite playing in just 82 games. A-Ram has always been a second-half hitter (second half OPS of .870 vs. .807 in the first half), and has always thrived at Wrigley Field (career .918 OPS).
If he comes back healthy for the hot summer months at Wrigley, he should put up a .285+ BA and approach 15 HR and 50 RBI in the second half. That should be enough to outperform popular third-sackers, like Jose Bautista, Scott Rolen, Casey McGeehee, Chase Headley, Placido Polanco, Alberto Callaspo, Juan Uribe, Ty Wigginton, and David Freese.
See if you can lowball his frustrated owner and reap the benefits.
Pitcher: Ricky Nolasco, SP, FLA
After Saturday night’s shelling in Tampa Bay, Ricky Nolasco’s ERA stands at 5.05 and his strikeout rate is down to 6.6 per nine innings. That’s a bitter pill to swallow for fantasy owners who looked past his bloated 2009 ERA and drafted him 20th among starting pitchers in ESPN leagues.
Maybe this is déjà vu all over again as Ricky was awful in the first part of 2009, when he was rocked over his first nine starts to the tune of a 9.07 ERA. He turned his season around after a two-week stint in the minors and was a true ace over his last 22 starts, with a 3.82 ERA and an elite 10.5 strikeouts per 9 innings.
Unless there’s a secret injury, we might just be seeing a mini-repeat of 2009. He’s still in his prime and has shown the ability to lose his mechanics for a stretch and then bounce back.
Perhaps he’s turning out to be a second-half pitcher (he also pitched better in the second half of 2008). See if you can pry him loose from a frustrated owner and hope that history repeats itself.
Follow Alex Shear on Twitter (@rotosleeperz) and check out his rarely updated blog at http://rotosleeperz.blogspot.com
Batter: Chone Figgins, 2B, SEA
2009 was Chone’s BIG contract year, and boy, did he not disappoint. Figgins finished the year with 114 Runs, 101 Walks, 42 SBs, and .298 BA from the leadoff spot. Getting himself a four-year, $36 million contract, and a new city (Seattle) to boot.
Now, you’d expect an All-Star caliber player like Figgins to handle a move to a new team like a pro, but after a forgeable first half, we are left with some questions. Let’s take a look at where we are and where it has gone wrong:
In his first 6 full seasons (2004-2009) Chone averaged: 44 SBs, 92.7 Runs, 52.2 RBIs, 162 Hits, .291 AVG
Now, for a prototypical leadoff hitter, these numbers are some of the tops in the sport. One of the things I preach the most is that baseball is a game of averages.
If you look back over five years, certain trends will appear for the better players. Now I understand that Chone is facing some different circumstances than before; Figgins is now batting in the two-hole (behind Ichiro), and becoming an everyday second baseman. But you can expect a monster second half as he becomes more comfortable with his roles, teammates, and city.
Bottom Line 2nd Half Expectations
Current 2010 1st Half: ABs- 220, BA -.227, Hits – 50, RBIs -16 Runs – 26, SB – 13
Projected 2nd Half: ABs – 400, BA – .300, Hits – 120, RBIs – 30, Runs – 75, SB – 25
Pitcher: Gavin Floyd, SP, CHW
It’s been a rough and, altogether, puzzling first half for White Sox starter Gavin Floyd. His staggering 6.18 ERA is the second highest in MLB among pitchers with at least 50 IP. In 206 1/3 innings in 2008, he allowed 190 hits. In 193 innings in 2009, he allowed 178 hits.
Through 67 innings of work in 2010, he’s allowed 84 hits. The usually tough to square up Floyd is finding too many barrels.
What’s gone wrong: Right-handed hitters are batting .306 against Floyd. The same RHH he held to a .256 clip in ’09 and .226 in ’08. When he gets himself into a jam, he’s not escaping free of harm. He’s allowed 26 ER in RISP w/2-out situations through 12 starts, compared to 35 ER all of last season.
His LOB percentage is a dismal 62.6 percent. His BAA on balls put in play (BABIP) is .369, an obscenely high frequency of success for opposing hitters. Compare that figure to .268 in ’08 and .292 in ’09. Floyd is throwing more changeups and less curveballs, a recipe that doesn’t seem to be paying dividends.
Why things just don’t add up: He’s averaging 7.66 K/9 innings, the highest figure of his career. He’s only allowed 7 HR, or 0.94 HR/9, his lowest gopher ball rate at the major league level. His ground ball rate of 46.6% is also the highest he’s ever produced. His average fastball velocity has been 92.1 MPH, over a mile per hour higher (90.9) than he threw in his 17-win campaign in 2008.
Despite his abysmal numbers, there is reason for optimism. Floyd has delivered only four quality starts all season, and three of those starts came in his last four outings. In those three quality starts, he K’d 20 against only five BB in 19 1/3 innings. He did throw in a 2 2/3 inning, 6 ER disaster in between those starts, but we’re trying to accentuate the positive.
His line-drive percentage is down, so eventually, those groundballs with eyes will find some gloves. With a bit of good fortune and improved run prevention in RISP situations, Floyd’s numbers should slowly creep back towards his traditional pitching line. He makes for a great buy low option (if he’s not on the waiver wire) and should be solid piece for fantasy rotations in the second half.
Pitcher written by Adam Ganeles for The Fantasy Fix (www.thefantasyfix.com). Follow Adam here weekly or on twitter http://twitter.com/adamganeles. Batter written by DP (aka Fantasy Mechanic) for The Fantasy Fix, there’s a reason why he wins championships every year. Follow all our tweets @thefantasyfix
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This late in the season, it is rare to see bona fide stars sucking, but that’s what you get from Nate McLouth , Aramis Ramirez , Chone Figgins ,or Jake Peavy . All of these guys were drafted with expectations of big fantasy numbers, but all have floundered this season. These are the types of guys who are too good to suck for an entire season, so stick with them or trade for them and expect things to get a lot better very quickly. They all have way too much talent to continue down their current paths.
Now, the projected two-start pitchers for this week. For those of you in leagues that require you to set your lineup at the beginning of the week, these are guys you should strongly consider:
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Rick’s Picks
Five best bets for double-start pitchers this week:
1. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball not named Roy Halladay . He gets the Rockies at home and the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Gotta get me a double scoop of this guy this week and hope he’s not hopped up on dope during the season.
2. Chad Billingsley gets two home games (vs ARZ, vs ATL) and has won four in a row, striking out at least five in each of those contests. Jump in and hang on for the week.
3. Justin Verlander will get two weak opponents (vs CLE, at KC) just as he’s turning around his slow start. Verlander will be big this week, so be a part of the action.
4. Roy Oswalt is trying to build his resume. By pitching his best for the next month, he is more likely to find a few suitors who are willing to meet Houston’s high price for his talents. Two home games against Washington and the Chicago Cubs will be great opportunities for you to enjoy those resume building stats.
5. Hisanori Takahashi isn’t likely to continue this torrid pace, but ride him while he’s hot. A road game in San Diego and a home game versus Florida will provide ample opportunities to keep it up.
Rick Milleman is the head fantasy baseball contributor at DraftBuddy.com . Check his annual player projections included in the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy to help draft your championship team.
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Interleague baseball has been the source of many good and bad feelings within the baseball community. Fans love it, fans hate it.
What interleague brings to a stadium near you is the ability to see teams you normally would not get to see (unless your team sees them in the World Series, or you travel to other ballparks a lot).
There is also the inter-city rivalries, (New York, Chicago, L.A.), and inter-state rivalries (California, Missouri, Florida) that fans will pay to see.
I, personally, do not pay much attention to interleague play because to me it is just another day and another game. Despite that, there are always some added bonuses, like good pitching match-ups and hot teams looking to stay on fire against another team in the same situation.
This weekend poses of few of the aforementioned.
(All stats courtesy of Yahoo! Sports)