Ruben Amaro Jr., Phillies General Manager, is a man of mystery.
Citing the team’s policy against discussing negotiations with players, he often leaves much of the fan base and baseball writers alike wondering about the state of the Phillies’ off-season.
So when rumors of a third team, after the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees, were becoming involved in the battle for Cliff Lee, baseball minds immediately began to gravitate towards the ever-secretive Philadelphia Phillies.
But how involved are they?
According to Jim Salisbury of CSNphilly.com, who spoke to the Phillies General Manager at the annual Winter Meetings last week, the Phillies were trying to “shoot for the moon” with potential deals, which Salisbury interpreted to mean the Phillies were laying the groundwork with Kansas City for a potential acquisition of the Royals’ ace, Zack Greinke.
However, a recent report from ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick suggests that the Phillies and Royals haven’t talked about Greinke, making a trade unlikely.
So if not Greinke, then who?
As the Yankees and Rangers await an answer from the free agent class’ top talent, baseball writers have been speculating over news of a third interested team, one that would offer fewer guaranteed years than Lee’s known suitors, but would be a serious threat to the Yankees’ and Rangers’ chances regardless.
That is a hefty assumption, since the Yankees are rumored to have offered the left hander a seven year deal worth about $160 million.
The Rangers, who remain wary of offering the 32-year-old Lee a guaranteed seven years, offered an equally absurd amount of money.
So why would Lee seriously consider another destination?
Though Lee himself has come out to state that the incident may have been blown out of proportion, it is worth noting that his wife, Kristen Lee, had an unpleasant experience at Yankee Stadium in 2010.
While Lee took the mound on the road in New York, Kristen sat beneath a group of disrespectful Yankees fans, who would go on to throw their garbage at and spit on her. While there are going to be rowdy fans in any ballpark, it is worth noting.
The Rangers, on the other hand, do not have anything of the sort worth mentioning.
In fact, new Rangers’ President, Hall of Fame pitcher, Nolan Ryan, is in an excellent position to offer Lee a huge contract.
The Rangers, who just signed a large deal with a local TV-network, are helped by the backing of a new ownership group, headed by Chuck Greenberg, who has made his interest in Lee noticeable after flying to the lefty’s home in Arkansas twice.
While it is noted that both Cliff and his wife enjoyed their time in Philadelphia, how likely is it that the ace could rejoin the Phillies?
Well, that remains to be seen.
The Phillies are a team very reluctant to offer free agents a seven year deal. Outside of Chase Utley’s seven-year contract extension, the team has found comfort in giving its players three-year deals, a la Brad Lidge, Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Placido Polanco, Roy Halladay, and Carlos Ruiz.
So while Jayson Stark of ESPN believes that the Phillies are the third team in the Lee sweepstakes, he also notes that Lee will have to take less then seven guaranteed years.
Guaranteed is the key word.
Lee, who will be 32 on Opening Day, has faced skepticism about his health, and whether or not he’ll be able to endure a seven-year contract.
The Yankees, who are the only team known to have offered seven years, probably only did so because they are desperate for starting pitching.
The Rangers remain firm at six years, while this elusive “mystery team” is offering less guaranteed years than both.
That’s the Phillies’ motive.
The Phillies, who were unwilling to offer Jayson Werth four guaranteed years, made him a very similar contract offer—three years with a vesting option for a fourth year based on performance.
Who is to say that they can’t offer Lee the same type of deal?
Envision, for a moment, the Phillies offering Cliff Lee a guaranteed four-year deal worth $23 million a year.
A four-year, $69 million deal is not a bad haul for a 32-year-old late bloomer.
Add to that some interesting contractual language, such as vesting options over the next three years, which become club options if the left hander fails to reach the quota, for games started, number of innings pitched, etc., and the Phillies and Cliff Lee could each reach a valuable agreement—a seven-year contract totaling $161 million.
The Phillies have a lot of valuable offers to make Lee, outside of money.
They will enter the 2011 season with the greatest “top three” in baseball, and arguably the best rotation in baseball.
If he were to join fellow aces Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt in red-pinstripes, the Phillies would have a perfectly balanced rotation—Halladay (R) / Lee (L) / Oswalt (R) / Hamels (L) / Blanton (R).
There are no guarantees in baseball, but the Phillies are early World Series favorites, and have assembled the greatest rotation in the history of baseball.
Bringing his family back to a city that showed him great respect and endured months of devastation after he left—all of these are points of interest for the 32-year-old family man, who has now appeared in the World Series twice and has yet to walk away with a ring.
Can the Phillies land Cliff Lee?—Absolutely.
However, it is going to take a bit of compromise from both sides.
The Phillies will undoubtedly be forced to move Joe Blanton or Raul Ibanez to make room on the 2011 payroll, and Lee will have to leave a large amount of money on the table to go to a place he is familiar with.
Any way you slice it, Cliff Lee makes any rotation better, regardless of his price tag.
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