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Despite a tough, injury-plagued spring training, today’s Philadelphia Phillies are about to break camp surrounded by the type of lofty expectations that are attached to very few ballclubs.

Yes, injuries to Chase Utley and Brad Lidge have scaled down some of the unchecked optimism about the regular season (okay, they won’t win 115 or so games), but they are still the odds-on choice to advance to the World Series for the third time in the last four years.

Charlie Manuel’s bunch has won the last four National League East pennants, and No. 5 is but a formality. The Phillies always win. Don’t they?

If you cut your baseball teeth in 2007, it’s hard to think otherwise. But it hasn’t always been this way, and one does not have to conjure up images of the horrid choke of 1964— featuring Jim Bunning, Chris Short, Chico Ruiz and Gene Mauch—to appreciate how special the last four seasons have been.

Please travel with me all the way back to the year 2006 for a reminder of the way it used to be.

The Phillies of 2006

In the early spring of 2006, the average price of a gallon of gas was $1.23, stadium hot dogs cost a dollar, and the Atlanta Braves were coming off their zillionth straight NL East title.

I’m just kidding about the price of gas, but stadium hot dogs did cost you a buck—on Dollar Dog Days.

The Phillies had finished the season with a quite respectable 88-74 record under first-year manager Charlie Manuel. Although 88 wins wasn’t bad, it was yet another season—their 12th consecutive—without a playoff berth.

For the glass-half-full fans, there was consolation to be found in finishing only two games out of first and one game behind the Astros for the wild card.

For most Phillies fans, it seemed like Groundhog Day. And who exactly was this glorified hitting coach with the strange accent who was mismanaging our team?

As the Phils geared up for Opening Day, nobody was comparing their starting rotation to the 1971 Baltimore Orioles or the 1990s Atlanta Braves. R2C2? The Four Aces? Mound Rushmore? Please.

The 2006 Phillies started the season with this rotation: Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Cory Lidle, Gavin Floyd and Ryan Madson. Maybe they should have been called Five Guys, if a certain burger joint wouldn’t have sued. This wasn’t Mound Rushmore. It was more the case of Mount NeedMore.

By the way, the Phillies opened the 2006 season with four straight losses, and one win out of their first six. All six games were played in front of their ever-patient fans. Their first victory was earned by reliever Tom Gordon.

To reassure you that I’m not describing some alternate universe played outside of Citizens Bank Park, I will add that a certain Cardinals player named Albert Pujols left Philly with a .500 batting average, three homers and six RBI after the first three games. Some things stay the same.

The Phillies did have a pretty good hitting team back then, if in a bit of transition from an offense led by Bobby Abreu, Jim Thome, Pat Burrell and Mike Lieberthal to one sparked by the young emerging corp of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins.

In 2005, Jim Thome battled injuries, which finally gave Howard his long-awaited shot. He capitalized with 22 homers and 63 RBI in only 88 games, winning Rookie of the Year honors.

Utley got his chance to play everyday in 2005, posting a slash line of .291/28/105 and Rollins, just 26, was coming off his first All-Star season.

The Phillies cut ties with Thome prior to the 2006 season, and Manuel presented the following lineup card to home plate umpire Gerry Crawford:

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS

2. Abraham Nunez, 3B

3. Bobby Abreu, RF

4. Chase Utley, 2B

5. Pat Burrell, LF

6. Ryan Howard, 1B

7. Aaron Rowand, CF

8. Mike Liebertahal, C

9. Jon Lieber, P

Even the most fervent Phillies fans may be surprised to see that Utley was hitting hitting cleanup, and Ryan Howard (who would slug his way to the NL MVP award with 58 homers and 149 RBI) was in the six-hole.

The lineup would soon see more changes. Bobby Abreu, who always struck me as both the most overrated and most unappreciated Phillies player, was traded to the Yankees in midseason.

Shane Victorino would emerge as an important outfielder before season’s end. Mike Lieberthal (starting to show signs of wear and tear) would finish 2006 and 2007 as a Phillie, but was losing playing time to Chris Coste and Carlos Ruiz.

Even Aaron Rowand, a fan favorite just acquired in 2006, would leave after the 2007 season. Third base? Don’t ask. David Bell, never a Philly fan favorite, saw the majority of the playing time.

The 2006 Phillies, despite big years from Howard, Utley, Rollins and Burrell, dropped to 85-77 and—check the record books—12 games behind a talented New York Mets team. They did not even make it as a wild card, extending that Groundhog Day scenario to 13 seasons.

Unlike the Phils of last year and for the foreseeable future, the starting pitching was never strong enough. Lefty phenom Cole Hamels came up midseason and posted a 9-8 record with a 4.08 ERA. Only Myers (12) and Madson (11) had more wins than Cole.

In the final analysis, that long, lost season of 2006 yielded a 2007 spring training of equal parts optimistic and uncertainty. That spring training gave birth to a 2007 team that nipped a collapsing Mets team by one game at the wire.

The rest, as baseball fans and archivists alike tend to say, is history.

For more information on Matt Goldberg’s new books, other writings and public appearances, please e-mail: matt@tipofthegoldberg.com or contact him via his Bleacher Report homepage.

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An injured player that returns can be like making a one-sided trade for your fantasy team. You can add a star player to your lineup while dropping your worst player. Sometimes the strategy pays off. Sometimes it blows up in your face. You have to take risks to win fantasy championships though.

Here are some injured players that you can store in your “bank” in hopes that they will pay dividends down the road.

Kendrys Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Morales is a little scary right now because he seems to be getting worse, rather than better. You probably remember he broke his leg celebrating a walk off grand slam on May 29th last year. He has been experiencing soreness in his toe. Mark Trumbo, who has been dealing with an injury (groin) of his own, will keep first base warm for Morales. Kendrys hit 34 home runs in 2009 and had 11 in 51 games before going down. Unfortunately you’re going to have to still take him fairly early (64 average draft position) because of his potential. Hopefully he won’t spend too much time in your DL slot.

Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Yankees
Granderson strained his oblique, which could cause him to miss the start of the season. While that is disappointing news to fantasy owners, it could give you better value than his ADP (73) before the injury. Granderson hit 17 home runs and carried a .861 OPS after the All-Star break last year.

Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies 
Utley is another guy that comes with a risk thanks to a knee injury that will likely keep him out on Opening Day. Anytime a knee is involved, it’s a pretty sticky situation. Best case scenario is it heals fast and it doesn’t hinder his production. The likely scenario is Utley playing through the injury, but his numbers will be affected. The worst case scenario is Utley being shut down. We don’t really know what is going to happen with him. That’s what makes drafting Utley so scary. His ADP is 18, but sinking fast.

Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians
Sizemore won’t play on Opening Day, as he recovers from a knee injury. When he returns, he will probably be limited initially. He isn’t a 30-30 threat this year, but he could post a 20 HR/20 SB season. His ADP is 99, which makes him a little bit of a risk. The payday could be great though.

Carlos Beltran, OF, New York Mets
Beltran is shooting for Opening Day, but given his injury history, I wouldn’t hold my breath. The main reason I like Beltran is his value. His ADP is 228, meaning you can get him around the 19th round of fantasy drafts. I don’t think he’ll ever post the numbers he did, as recently as 2008, but he could be a solid power/speed combo.
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Brian Wilson, RP, San Francisco Giants
Like Granderson, Wilson is dealing with a strained oblique. It is an injury that can be aggravated, but it’s not alarming at this point. Wilson remains one of the game’s elite closers.
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Johan Santana, SP, New York Mets
It’s gambling time. Johan won’t like pitch until the All-Star break, if he pitches at all in 2011. He’s an excellent second half pitcher, but will he be productive without having the first half to get warmed up?  With an ADP of 208, he is certainly worth the risk. If he is 75 percent of what he’s been after the break (65-23, 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), you could get a huge boost for the stretch run.
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Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox
Peavy’s return from lat reattachment surgery is dealing with rotator cuff tendinitis. It’s only expected to keep him out a few weeks of the season. He struggled a bit last year going 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA. I think he’ll be closer to the pitcher that went 9-6 with a 3.45 ERA with the White Sox in 2009.

Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Cueto’s shoulder will sideline him for the start of the year. He still should have plenty of value for fantasy owners. His ERA and WHIP have gone down in each of the past two years. He’s worth considering towards the end of your draft.

Also check out:

• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Value Picks
• 2011 Fantasy Baseball Profiles
• 2011 Fantasy First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only First Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Second Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Third Basemen Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Shortstop Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Catcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Outfielder Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Starting Pitcher Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy Closer Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy A.L. Only Closer Rankings
• 2011 Fantasy N.L. Only Closer Rankings

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When Cliff Lee decided to re-join the Philadelphia Phillies in mid-December, the first thought racing through the mind of every Phils’ fan rotated around a star studded rotation that would help the team get the revenge they declared they would seek following a bitter ending to the National League Championship Series.

As the initial shock wore off, some of us baseball scribes posed a more interesting question—How many pitchers are too many for the Phillies?

The addition of Lee shored up a mediocre bullpen an interesting way. He would now join Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels to form a front four that averaged at least seven innings a start in 2010. Even the fifth starter, Joe Blanton, averaged more than six innings a start last season. In large part thanks to Halladay and Lee, the Phillies’ lead the league in complete games with 14, and the bullpen threw a National League low 421 innings—without Lee.

An incredibly durable rotation helped what was once a mediocre bullpen become much more reliable late in games. Of course, a lot of that had to do with health and performance. Former starter Jose Contreras settled into his seventh inning role nicely, while over the final months of the seasons, set-up man Ryan Madson and closer Brad Lidge were nearly untouchable.

For that reason alone, heading into the 2011 season, the Phils’ have to feel pretty good about the state of their bullpen, because they certainly feel good about the strength of their starting pitching. The bullpen’s only loss was middle innings guy Chad Durbin, while JC Romero looks to rebound from an injury plagued 2010 season.

It really isn’t a difficult observation to make—the starting rotation, barring injury, is going to log a ton of innings in front of a bullpen that has the potential to be very strong at the back end. With a core of relievers virtually guaranteed roster spots, the need for the “last man out of the bullpen,” or the 12th pitcher on the roster, is growing incredibly slim.

Excluding the five guys that will compose the starting rotation, we know that six more pitchers are virtual locks for the bullpen. Lidge, Madson, Contreras and Romero will all be heading north for Opening Day. Another pair of relievers, Danys Baez and Kyle Kendrick, are near locks to make the club thanks to the guaranteed dollars on their contracts and spring performances that can’t be used as an excuse to leave them behind.

Looking over that group of six though, you have more than just a few good single inning relievers. You also have more than one guy that is capable of logging several innings per outing. Kendrick, who will most likely break camp as the team’s long man thanks to the depth of the starting rotation. Though he may not have been very effective as a starter last season, he did log 180 innings for the Phils’.

The same case can be argued for several other relievers on the roster. Outside of Lidge and Romero, who will be used primarily against left handed hitters, Contreras, Madson and Baez could all throw more than one inning for the Phillies, though, keeping those guys to one inning a piece may be the better option.

In short, the need for yet another reliever is obsolete behind a starting rotation that will probably be sapping innings from the six guys that are almost guaranteed to make the roster. The question now becomes, “What do the Phils’ do with that last spot on the 25-man roster?”

Obviously, it should go to another utility player, giving the Phillies more options both in the field and on the bench.

While I’m the ultimate optimist in regards to the health of Chase Utley‘s knee (which by the way, he tested out with pivot drills on the second base bag today) and will not concede that claims that he won’t play this season are flat out ludicrous, (I know, I know. I can’t help myself.) he will, at the very least, open the season on the 15-day disabled list.

That virtually guarantees a replacement second baseman a job, which in this case, we’ll award to Wilson Valdez.

With that out of the way, we know eight guys will be playing every day for the Phillies: Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard, Valdez, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez and Ben Francisco. Love it or hate it, that’s the lineup.

The bench is shaping up as well with just under two weeks of Spring Training left to play. Lefties Brian Schneider and Ross Gload will make the team without question, and with Francisco having played his way into the right field job, John Mayberry Jr. has played his way on to the bench (and has garnered some serious consideration for the starting job from this baseball scribe.)

So where does that leave the bench? Schneider, as he did last season, will serve as Ruiz’s understudy. Back-up catcher—check. While Charlie Manuel has gone on the record stating that Gload can win some playing time in right field, I’m not buying. He’s too valuable a late-inning pinch hitter to start on a regular basis. He’ll play some back-up first base, as well as right field. Primary left handed pinch hitter—check. Mayberry has been impressive this spring. I can’t see him not making the roster, and he upped his versatility by playing some first base as well as the corner outfield positions. Fourth outfielder / first baseman—check.

Not carrying that 12th pitcher gives the Phillies some options to fill out their bench, where the competition has been very heated this spring. While some fans may cringe at his name, I’m under the impression that Luis Castillo is a virtual lock to make this team, and the Phils’ could use him.

While a lot of people believe that Valdez is the better choice at second base to replace Utley, I like to go against the grain. As I argued in this piece earlier in the week, giving Valdez an everyday job takes away from his overall value.

Let’s face the music—the Phillies are an older team. While I’m not going to give you the “they are old and decrepit” speech, they are the type of team that can and will have to avoid injuries by giving their starters adequate rest. In that instance, a player with Valdez’s versatility is key. Having played just about every position on the diamond this spring, the Phils’ will find Valdez plenty of playing time, regardless of whether he’s the starting second baseman or not.

In the long run, he makes a much better utility player than Castillo, who believe it or not, could still benefit a lineup. He’s a switch hitter, which would give Manuel options in the lineup, and even in a down year, proved that he can still get on base to a good extent. Basically, this scenario guarantees both Valdez and Castillo spots on the bench.

That leaves one spot on the 25-man roster for a few guys that have played exceptionally well this spring: Delwyn Young, Josh Barfield, Pete Orr and Michael Martinez.

In my personal opinion, Barfield and Orr aren’t likely to make the team, and you won’t catch me crying over that decision. Both of these guys have played well this spring, but they’ve done little outside of it to show that they can be viable options for a Major League club. With both guys having Minor League options, it makes much more sense to stash them at AAA in the event of an injury.

There are benefits to having a guy like Young on your bench. Offensively, he could provide a spark off of the bench. Last season, he was among the league leaders in pinch hits—right in front of Gload—and as a switch hitter, gives Manuel some versatility later in the game. If the team is comfortable with Valdez playing center-field in the event Victorino needs time off, Young could make the team.

Personally, I’d like to see Martinez earn that final spot though. The Phillies have done very well in the Rule 5 Draft in recent years. Well all know the story of Victorino, but even guys like David Herndon have played well in the roles the Phils’ drafted them to fill.

Martinez is an interesting blend of talent. He plays every position in the middle of the field, including center field, and provides an actual defensive option should the Phils’ need to rest both Castillo and Valdez. He’s shown some power and average this spring, and is probably worth keeping around, if for nothing more than keeping him away from the Washington Nationals.

In this scenario, the Phillies essentially have a player for each role they’ll need to fill off of the bench. Along with those listed above, Castillo gives the Phils’ an option at second base, Young gives the Phils’ a threat from both sides of the plate off of the bench and Martinez can play multiple positions with upside. For a team that has suffered multiple injuries at multiple positions, having that sixth man on the bench is a luxury that many teams can’t afford.

At the very least, it beats holding on to a pitcher the team will never use.

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Well, it looks like it may be a reality: Luis Castillo is reported close to signing a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. Quite frankly, I am not sure how I feel about this. One would assume that there are some pros and some cons so let’s take a look at some of them

One major pro is that he is most likely going to be very, very cheap. He is already guaranteed $6M from the NY Mets, so the Phillies would be able to sign him for his qualifying league minimum, approximately $485,000. Cheap labor of this caliber is always a good thing and of course it makes it a very low risk/high reward proposition for the Phillies. Added Bonus: how great would it be to watch Castillo play against the Mets while they are paying him? Does it get any better than that?

Another pro would be that Castillo was, at one point, a very good hitter. His last full uninjured season was as recent as 2009 and he managed a very respectable .302 avg, .387 OBP and 77 runs scored. He has a very low strike out rate which would help what is currently a very K-prone lineup. His ability to put the ball in play could come in handy on a team like the Phillies who put a lot of runners on base and often only need a ground ball out or sacrifice fly to score a run. Also, he can still run, swiping 23 bags in 2009. Whether or not he can regain that form remains to be seen, but for $485K, don’t you almost have to take that shot?

He was hurt most of 2010 so any numbers from that year may be skewed but I assure you they are not good. Also, you have to take into account he was a Met and quite frankly it really seems as though most of those guys, especially the veterans, just flat out gave up.  

Let’s throw in a con: Wilson Valdez won’t get the much-deserved shot he has earned at second base. Valdez has been on fire this spring playing nearly every day and hitting over .400. He is playing several positions defensively and has been really impressive at all of them. He has even played some outfield this spring and done a very fine job at it. I personally would be slightly upset if Valdez didn’t at least get the opportunity at the job. The only thing that scares me about Valdez is his propensity to hit into the double play.

Another con is no one really knows his clubhouse attitude. The Phillies are known to have one of the best clubhouses in all of baseball; just ask Cliff Lee. They have taken tremendous care in achieving this chemistry. When Pat Gillick took over the team in 2005 he made it a point of contention to trade away great talents that were disruptive clubhouse members and it’s a philosophy that appears to have really worked. There is a rumor that the Phillies grade clubhouse attitude in their scouting reports and very seriously consider that grade when deciding on a player. There are many who believe, myself among them, that this is the reason the Philles are as successful as they are, despite injuries, despite slumps, despite poor outings–the Phillies always endure.

How about a pro: he hits from both sides of the plate. He could offer a right-handed bat in what is considered a very heavily weighted left handed lineup. Similar to Shane Victorino, he hits about equally from both sides; with a career .298 as a right-handed batter and .294 as a left-handed batter. Given the fact that most of the teams in the NL East have adjusted their bullpens to deal with the Phillies left-handed attack, this could prove extremely valuable.

All in all I would have to say it’s a good move for the Phillies however it is totally dependent on what they will pay him. As Ruben Amaro has recently been quoted as saying the team is completely tapped out financially, my guess would be the only way he becomes a Phillie is at the bare minimum price. I would further assume that Castillo would take that. He is, after all, still earning his $6M from the Mets this season and he would be playing for a contender. So if it happens: Good for you Luis Castillo, and welcome to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Let me know what you think. Is signing Luis Castillo a good move? Do you have another pro or con? Leave a comment and let me know.

UPDATE:  It’s a done deal.  Minor league contract which minimizes financial damage if t doesn’t  work out.  Good move by Ruben Amaro as he has managed to put the team in a win/win situation.

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News of Chase Utley’s tendinitis in his right knee has spread around the baseball world over the past week. While Utley doesn’t look like he’ll need any serious treatment, he’s already received a cortisone shot in the knee, but it didn’t have any effect. He’s rested and stayed off the knee as much as possible, but that was to no avail. He’s even suggested that he could receive either a steroid injection or lubricant injection to speed up the process, but neither are certain as of yet.

Regardless of whether it’s been because of being hit by a pitch or simply overworking himself, Chase Utley has definitely felt the impact of an injury on playing time. Over the last few seasons, Utley has been riddled with injuries, from the broken hand to the torn thumb ligament last season, and now the tendinitis.

ESPN’s SportsCenter recently showed a statistic about second basemen that displayed the amount of additional wins a team has when a second baseman plays every day over his replacement. Chase Utley led this statistic with roughly 21 wins. Boston’s Dustin Pedroia came in second, but by a long shot, only providing roughly 14 wins.

Even though this statistic is both astounding and heartbreaking to Phillies fans, it’s not like they’ve seen replacements at second base in the past. If Utley won’t be ready for Opening Day or even beyond, someone will have to replace him temporarily.

Utley is doing all he can to avoid surgery to help his tendinitis, chondromalacia (cartilage deterioration), and bone inflammation.

But if surgery becomes inevitable in the future, which is still extremely rare, who would fill his shoes?

In no particular order, here are five players who are the most likely to fill in for Chase Utley if needed. 

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Everyone is gunning for the Phillies. 

A quick look at any sports news outlet and you will see a myriad of “doom and gloom” scenarios all pointing to why the Phillies won’t contend in 2011. 

You’ll read about Chase Utley’s injury and how the Phillies are doomed without him; how age will be their undoing and you’ll read a lot about Jimmy Rollins and how he has “seen better days” and that without him there is no way they can win. 

Well, I‘m here to tell you, don’t believe any of it.

The Philadelphia Phillies will win the NL East; they will win the National League Championship and they have the best chance of winning the World Series. In fact, they will have a better chance than who ever happens to win the American League Pennant (insert Boston Red Sox-sounding cough here).

Utley is an amazing player but he does not hold the fate of the Philadelphia Phillies in his hands…or his knees for that matter. He missed almost half of the 2010 season with a broken hand and yet the Phillies managed to finish with the best record in Major League Baseball. 

You can also add Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and catcher Carlos Ruiz to the list of players who missed significant playing time in 2010. 

While backup catcher Brian Schneider managed to avoid the DL, he was virtually unplayable for a good two weeks when Ruiz was out, leaving the Phillies to rely on Dane Sardinha, a call-up from the minor leagues. All those injuries to all those players and still, the best record in baseball.

They were able to overcome these injuries for a very simple reason: the bench, and in particular, Wilson Valdez—who was a New York Mets throwaway picked up by the Phillies in the offseason prior to the start of the 2010 season. 

Valdez didn’t make the team initially, but when Rollins got hurt early in the season he was called up to replace him. Oddly, he was soon designated for assignment and after clearing waivers landed back on the Phillies’ minor-league affiliate. He was soon brought back and filled a huge void for the team for the remainder of the season. 

So far this spring Valdez is on fire, playing every day and hitting well above .300. He is the main reason the Phillies are not looking elsewhere to fill the void of an injured Utley. 

The main knock on Valdez is his propensity to hit into the double play. If he can manage to improve that aspect of his game he might qualify as one of the best bench players in baseball.

Yes, the Phillies are the oldest team in baseball. If you add the age of every player on the major-league roster and then divide that sum by 25 (number of roster spots) you will in fact have a higher number than any other team in baseball. 

Why? 

Most of these guys have proven that they can perform and there was no need to call up young talent from the system. 

Does that make their combined average age a negative or a positive? 

Well, you figure it out. Is the fact that they have a 31-year-old first basemen who is so good he manages to be among the league leaders in production every year a good thing or a bad thing? Sure, once these guys start to decline the age will become a factor, but at this particular juncture in time, this has not really happened.

Which brings us to Jimmy Rollins. 

There is no doubt about it, his numbers are falling rapidly. 

But why? Is it because of his age? 

I don’t think so and I watch every Phillies game, all year long.

What I see in Rollins is extremely poor decision making at the plate with poor at-bats. He swings at bad pitches, he swings early in the count, he seems to always be trying to hit the long ball and he flat-out refuses to walk. Pitchers aren’t getting him out, he’s getting himself out. 

Rollins actually started last season off on a tear, hitting over .350 when he injured himself. When he returned to the lineup it seemed as if he was trying to get all his production back at one time, typically on the first pitch. Unfortunately, this is only a problem Jimmy can fix. 

From what I have seen of him in spring training, it doesn’t look as though he is on the right path. I really don’t know how long he will last in 2011 if he cannot become a more disciplined, smarter hitter. The bright side is the team was without him for a majority of 2010 and, as mentioned above, they still managed the best record in all of baseball.

Another adage you’ll hear from the naysayers’ mouths refers to the loss of Jayson Werth and how ultimately he was the glue that held the team together and he was the key to the Phillies success and other nonsense. 

I guess no one bothered to look at Mr. Werth’s average with runners in scoring position (RISP). 

I did. It was .186. Werth came through with the all-important hit with a runner on second or third 19 times out of 100. 

As we know these hits almost always result in the true objective of the game—scoring runs—and .186 is a miserable number. 

The biggest factor in the Phillies’ offensive woes of 2010, besides the injuries, can be attributed to Werths’ poor RISP percentage. While he may be missed defensively, his production on offense should be fairly easy to make up. 

Despite Werth’s inability to come through with a run-scoring hit, the Phillies still had the best record in all of baseball? 

Most likely the Phillies will replace Werth with a platoon consisting of Ben Francisco, Ross Gload and John Mayberry. All three have had fantastic springs and should easily be able to adequately replace the .186 avg. with RISP brought to you by the good folks at Jayson Werth. Enjoy D.C. and your $126 million, Jay.

The addition of Cliff Lee clearly makes them a better team than they were last year.  And they only had ace Roy Oswalt for half of the season in 2010. No other team in the National League has made improvements as significant as the Phillies did by adding Lee. 

The mainstream media is pandering with their knocks on the Phiillies, but can you blame them?  

We all read the stories and ultimately that is their goal. I usually just think about last year when they had the…you know. So, if you’re still worried or if you still don’t believe the Phillies will have a more than successful year, I welcome your explanations of how and why.

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Every baseball season, there are injuries around the league.  Some are so bad that a few can never rebound and make the same impact as they did before—i.e. Carlos Beltran of the New York Mets, who has now been forced to change positions due to injury.

Depending on the situation, whether it’s Tommy John surgery, a shoulder operation, elbow tendinitis or a broken foot, baseball is a very tough sport to recover in.  This can be due to the fact that “Americas pastime,” puts a high demand on muscles that aren’t used in everyday life. 

Not to mention that those muscles and ligaments are used in an unusual fashion.

The throwing motion, for one, is a prime example of overuse of certain shoulder and arm muscles.

With constant force on the knee joints, whether it be getting in a fielding position or moving side to side, the ligaments eventually began to fall apart like tread on a tire. 

Baseball players bodies’ are like tires.  They can ride great when they’re fresh and new, however, once they start to wear down from the overuse, bad things can happen.

Now that the steroid era has come and gone—at least it looks that way—more superstars are coming up with injuries.  Why? Because of the constant grind on their rubber-like bodies.

A few players may never be the same again this season.  

So who are they?

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We still don’t know exactly what the situation is with Chase Utley.  It appears that he could miss some time, though how much is anyone’s guess. 

Will it be a week?  Will it be a month? 

Even if he is somehow able to be ready to start on Opening Day, at this point we all know that this is a potentially chronic knee problem.  Who’s to say that it doesn’t creep up in May or June or, even worse, September when your fantasy title is on the line?

Obviously, he still offers as much upside as anyone at 2B, so that makes the decision on where to rank him all the more difficult.  He has to be moved down, but exactly how far?  These rankings are going off the assumption that he’s going to get between 400 and 450 AB in 2011, meaning I’m projecting him to miss about a month (as well as lose the majority of the benefits he once had to steal a few bases).

If he misses more?  Well, that’s a different story all together.  For now, he has too much upside to drop too far and too much downside not to drop significantly:

1. Robinson Cano – New York Yankees
2. Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox
3. Ian Kinsler – Texas Rangers
4. Dan Uggla – Atlanta Braves
5. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds
6. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
7. Rickie Weeks – Milwaukee Brewers
8. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies
9. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
10. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays
11. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles
12. Kelly Johnson – Arizona Diamondbacks
13. Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox
14. Howie Kendrick – Los Angeles Angels
15. Chone Figgins – Seattle Mariners

Thoughts:

• Until we know more about Utley’s situation, the risk far outweighs the reward.  Yes, you could get a prototypical performance from him, but at this point I’d put the chances at under 10%.  It is far more likely that you could nothing out of your early round pick, making it impossible to call his name.  If he falls to the middle rounds, then absolutely.  He still could be one of the most dynamic options at the position.
• Are potential rebounds from Ben Zobrist and Aaron Hill worth more than Utley?  That certainly is debatable, though they are far from locks in their own right.  As we’ve said with Hill, he got very homer happy, but can we be sure that he rectifies it?  (click here for more on Hill)
• Without Utley, do you think fantasy owners will finally realize just how valuable Dan Uggla is?  You know people who once targeted Utley have to turn their attention somewhere, so maybe he will finally get the respect he deserves.  For more on Uggla, check out my projection for 2011 by clicking here.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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For the last few years, the Philadelphia Phillies have made their name as an offense-heavy team that occasionally pitched well.

That’s not to say they had no good pitching—they just didn’t have very much of it. Cole Hamels carried the team in both 2007 and 2008, and Cliff Lee was lights-out down the stretch in 2009, but beyond that, Philadelphia’s rotation didn’t scare anyone.

Even in 2010, manager Charlie Manuel sent Roy Halladay to the mound every fifth day (not “every fifth game”) because he didn’t trust anyone else to take the ball.

But by the end of last season, something had changed. The Phillies were the near-unanimous favorites to win the National League pennant not for their bats, but for their arms.

While assertions that the Phillies’ tremendous trio would be unbeatable in a playoff series were quickly proven false, this was a clear shift in the composition of their roster.

Philadelphia still had the offensive prowess to win in a slugfest, but opposing teams were more worried about scoring enough runs than allowing too many.

Now with Lee back in the fold, Philadelphia’s 2011 rotation is undoubtedly the best in the game, and may end up among the greatest of all time. In the minds of baseball’s talking heads, the Phillies have already wrapped up the NL pennant.

But it’s too soon to crown them the champions. The Phillies have a problem that could end up costing them a playoff berth: the lineup.

The Phillies managed just 772 runs in 2010, down from 820 in 2009 and 890 in 2007. Part of that can be blamed on the league-wide drop in offense last season, but the team’s 99 wRC+ shows Philadelphia’s bats to have been slightly below average.

Surprised? Check the stat sheets. Jimmy Rollins battled injuries and continued his descent into mediocrity, tying or setting career lows in nearly every offensive category as his OPS dropped to .694.

Thirty-eight-year-old Raul Ibanez slumped through his worst offensive season in a decade, finishing with an OPS below .800 for the first time since 2005 and missing the 20-homer mark he had cleared the previous five years.

Even Shane Victorino’s game took a turn for the worse; he hit just .259 and posted the worst full-season OPS (.756) of his career.

Even the mighty Ryan Howard looks like he may be past his prime. After averaging 50 homers and 143 RBI from 2006-09 (never dropping below 45 and 136, respectively), he managed just 31 homers and plated only 108 runs last season. His .859 OPS was the worst he’s ever posted.

Throw in his abysmal defense and his premium offensive position, and he finished the 2010 campaign with 2.0 WAR. That’s right, folks—Ryan Howard was a league-average player.

The outlook is even worse for 2011. The Phillies already lost their second-best position player, Jayson Werth, to free agency, and his replacement, young right fielder Domonic Brown, is out for at least a month with a broken wrist.

But now, Philadelphia faces an even bigger problem. Face of the franchise Chase Utley’s knee problems are turning out to be worse than we’d thought.

They are understandably hesitant to let Utley undergo surgery for his tendinitis, but with the non-surgical treatments failing this far, things don’t look good for the five-time All-Star.

Utley is almost assuredly going to miss Opening Day, and while the front office doesn’t expect him to miss the whole season, there is no timetable for his return. If he ends up needing surgery, it could take him months to recover fully.

The salient question is: are they still the favorites without their keystone man? Thanks to some sabermetric projection systems, we can get a good idea of the answer.

The easiest system to use for measuring players’ projected impacts on their teams is FanGraphs.com’s FAN Projections.

Here, the Phillies hold a five-game lead in the NL East over the second-place Florida Marlins; a six-win drop would put them in a four-way tie for the Wild Card.

The fans project 7.9 WAR per 162 games for Utley and -0.2 WAR/162 for his chief replacement last year, Wilson Valdez. In other words, for every 20 games Utley misses, the Phillies lose a win.

By that standard, if Utley misses a month or two, the Phillies are still the favorites in the NL East, but it’ll be closer than they’d like.

If he’s back at 100 percent capacity after the All-Star Break, the Phillies will be in the thick of it, but a playoff berth is far from guaranteed.

And if he misses the whole season or comes back before he’s fully recovered and plays poorly, the Phillies will be lucky to win a Wild Card spot.

What of the more advanced projection systems? CAIRO’s latest projections have the Phillies 6.5 games ahead of the second-place Braves, while PECOTA has them ahead by four.

Using a 5-4-3 weighting system for the last three years, we get a projection of 7.9 WAR/162 games for Utley; making the generous assumption that whoever replaces him will be worth 1.0 WAR/162, the Phillies here lose a little more than a win each month Utley is out.

By CAIRO’s standards, the Phillies still win the division as long Utley comes back by September, Meanwhile, PECOTA says the Phillies will fall to second unless he’s back by the trade deadline.

And that’s assuming the rotation stays healthy, Rollins and Howard don’t slip any further, and Utley is feeling comfortable upon his return—far from a given with this kind of problem.

There’s no way to know how Philadelphia will fare in 2011 until we know more about how serious Utley’s injury is, how it can be fixed, and how long he’ll be out.

Barring a complete disaster elsewhere on the roster, the Phillies should be serious contenders, but in spite of their amazing starting pitching, a less threatening offense and the loss of their best player mean they are far from clear favorites for the pennant.

For more of Lewie’s work, visit WahooBlues.com. Follow him on Twitter @LewsOnFirst or @WahooBlues.

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Chase Utley is a ballplayer who should at the very least be respected and admired—even in the eyes of opposing fan bases.

A tireless worker, Utley is a rare breed of middle-infielder with the ability to hit for both power and average.  Additionally, he is a very reliable defender and is known to raise his level of play at the largest of moments.

Unfortunately for the city of Philadelphia, this battler has another fight on his hands—though this one is not taking place between the white lines of Citizen’s Bank Park. It is instead an internal war with cartilage, bone and tendons in his balky right knee.

The Phillies already have lost promising rookie Domonic Brown, and are looking for ways to compensate for the loss of clutch slugger Jayson Werth.

Add in uncertainties over Raul Ibanez’ age and Jimmy Rollins’ injury history, and question marks have suddenly been placed next to one of baseball’s most imposing offensive attacks.

Utley is a tough man, and one who would refuse to let down his teammates under any circumstances. As such, let us assume he attempts to tough it out with injections and rehabilitation over the season’s opening months.

Here we are now in the middle of June, and the situation has simply deteriorated too far for Utley to ignore further. Doctors recommend a procedure that could have him ready for the postseason, but he is otherwise lost for the regular season.

Simultaneously, a struggling Chicago Cubs team is mired in fourth place in the NL Central and looking for a way to shed salary in a season lacking playoff contention.

Needing some added pop in a solid but inconsistent lineup, would the Phillies make a call to Jim Hendry for third base slugger Aramis Ramirez?

Current Phillies third baseman Placido Polanco is truly a second baseman by trade—earning two Gold Gloves in his time at the position in Detroit. He could very easily transition back to his old home to leave room for a power hitter at a traditional power position.

Philadelphia is far from a small-market team, and they will have virtually no issue taking on the then $7-8 million left on his deal (one that can be bought out for $two million after the season). They would essentially be renting a quality hitter who can handle big cities in a risk-free scenario.

A team that has previously been exposed in the heart of their lineup by left-handers (Howard and Ibanez vs. Pettitte, Sabathia, Marte) would now have replenished the righty power they lost in Werth’s defection to Washington.

Their lineup would be more balanced, and they would have some added firepower to knock out a stubborn Giants team likewise loaded with pitching talent.

While the Phillies could potentially boast the best pitching staff since the 90s Atlanta Braves, there is nothing wrong with ensuring a few more runs will be thrown up on the scoreboard in postseason action.

Another option in this midseason scenario would be Texas Rangers infielder Michael Young, but the $32 million left on his deal beyond 2011 makes him an unrealistic and irresponsible trade target for Philadelphia.

The deal would also make sense for the other franchise involved, as the Cubs are looking to get younger and cheaper in some areas to entertain making a push for Albert Pujols’ services at first base.

Chicago could request a quality but unproven arm like Kyle Kendrick from an already crowded and star-studded rotation—while also discussing the inclusion of supplementary prospects.

An expiring contract attached to an aging player would not provide a large haul in return, but grabbing a back-end starter like Kendrick while receiving added payroll relief would be a solid move for the Cubs if in fourth place come June.

Hopefully this will not come into the equation for the Phillies in 2011, and perhaps Utley will make it through 140 plus games with consistent production in the middle of the lineup.

Vegas odds would likely not lean in favor of that scenario, however, and it is not unreasonable to expect a risk-free splash like this one to take place midseason.

Fans in Philadelphia should keep a very close eye on the standings in the NL Central throughout the early months of the season, as a dangerous veteran like Ramirez could be re-energized by a change of scenery and World Series contention.

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