Kuzul

The Chicago Cubs were already on the short list of MLB heavyweights.

Now that they’ve acquired flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman, they’ll tip the scales.

The Cubs official twitter account confirmed the deal:

Gleyber Torres, a 19-year-old shortstop, is the Cubs’ No. 2 prospect and OF Billy McKinney is ranked 8th, according to Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter. Reliever Adam Warren has a 5.91 ERA in 29 appearances for the Cubs this year after spending the last four seasons with the Yankees. Rashad Crawford is a 22-year-old outfielder currently slashing .255/.327/.386 in High-A.

For now, though, let’s focus on what this deal would mean for the Cubs.

Yes, Chapman is merely a rental, as he’s set to hit free agency after the season. And yes, he opened the 2016 campaign by serving a 30-game domestic violence suspension.

But with his triple-digit heat, the Cuban southpaw sits in the upper echelon of big league closers. His arrival on the North Side would instantly transform Chicago’s bullpen.

The Cubs have already been hard at work on that front, having acquired left-hander Mike Montgomery from the Seattle Mariners on July 20. They also activated 41-year-old Joe Nathan on Sunday and watched him pick up a win against the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Those are incremental moves, though, the equivalent of rearranging the silverware drawer. A Chapman acquisition would be a full kitchen remodel, replete with granite countertops. 

Even after serving his suspension, Chapman has more saves (20) than any member of the current Cubs bullpen. His 12.64 strikeouts per nine innings would outpace any current Chicago reliever. 

Add right-handers Hector Rondon (1.95 ERA, 48 SO, 37 IP) and Pedro Strop (2.87 ERA, 49 SO, 37.2 IP) and the Cubs could replicate the shutdown late-inning formula that won the Kansas City Royals an AL pennant in 2014 and a title in 2015, as Mark Schanowski of CSN Chicago noted:

That wouldn’t be the Cubs’ only strength, though. Their offense, laden with burgeoning young bats from Kris Bryant to Anthony Rizzo, ranks among the game’s top five in runs scored and OPS. Their starting rotation, fronted by reigning NL Cy Young Award-winner Jake Arrieta and veteran left-hander Jon Lester, leads MLB in ERA. And their plus-150 run differential remains the toast of MLB.

Chapman, though, could be that missing piece. A ninth-inning arm that singes radar guns and instills fear in the hearts of opposing hitters isn’t a prerequisite for October glory, but it doesn’t hurt.

The St. Louis Cardinals, the Cubs’ archrivals and the team currently closest to Chicago in the NL Central, also own an .053 average against Chapman in their present incarnation. Chapman spent the bulk of his career with the Cincinnati Reds, so he’s intimately familiar with the division. 

There are plenty of reasons why he makes sense for the Cubs, assuming they’re going all-in on a curse-busting run. Which, considering where they sit, they clearly should be.

On July 19, Chicago president of baseball operations Theo Epstein suggested on 670 AM The Score’s Spiegel and Goff Show (via WGNTV.com) that the Cubs were prepared to listen to any and all offers (with certain qualifications):

There are core, foundational guys that we believe in their talent, we believe in their make-up, we believe in everything they’ve done to get us to this point, and everything they’re going to do for us over the next many years. We’d be really foolish to be shortsighted and break that up just so we could incrementally improve our chances of winning the whole thing this year. We’re going to do everything we can to win this year, but as [general manager] Jed [Hoyer] said earlier, we want to get there every year. We want to do it with guys you believe in, guys we believe in and we’re lucky enough to have that group. So, to break it up, we’d be really foolish.

Fair enough. That’s why Epstein was the architect of the Boston Red Sox‘s long-awaited parade, and it’s why he has the Cubs on the doorstep of history.

But with the even-year San Francisco Giants, resurgent Washington Nationals and pesky contenders such as the Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins and New York Mets lurking, Chicago can’t rest on its early results.

The Cubs have an opportunity to separate themselves from the pack. To play the unfamiliar role of favorites. To gild the lily.

They should seize it, whatever the cost.

All statistics current as of July 24 and courtesy of MLB.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise noted. 

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Chicago Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler has surfaced as a potential name on the move heading toward the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.   

Continue for updates.

Soler Not Part of Potential Chapman Trade

Monday, July 25

Soler reportedly drew the interest of the New York Yankees, per Julie DiCaro of 670 The Score on Sunday, though it appears he won’t be headed to New York.  

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi and the New York Post‘s Joel Sherman reported on Monday morning that Soler is not part of the potential package the Cubs are expected to send to New York for relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman. 

DiCaro reported the Soler news after Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball noted the Cubs were “working” on a possible trade for Chapman that included prospect Gleyber Torres. 

Soler Must Stay Healthy to Meet Expectations

Soler is working his way back from a stint on the disabled list for a hamstring strain and hasn’t played at the major league level since June 6. He was one of the left field replacements for the North Siders when slugger Kyle Schwarber went down with a torn ACL and LCL early in the season.

Through 50 games this year, Soler slashed .223/.322/.377 with five home runs and 13 RBI. He dealt with injuries in 2015 as well and appeared in only 101 games and slashed .262/.324/.399 with 10 home runs and 47 RBI.

While the overall numbers aren’t particularly impressive, Soler did hit .455 in a small sample size in June before suffering the injury. What’s more, he was an overwhelming force for the Cubs in their run to last year’s National League Championship Series with a .474 batting average, a 1.705 OPS and three home runs in seven postseason games, per ESPN.com.

He provided a glimpse of his potential if he can ever stay fully healthy and didn’t shy away from the moment on the October stage.

Soler is also only 24 years old and under team control through the 2020 campaign, per Spotrac. 

As for the Cubs, they would still have plenty of firepower in their lineup if they decided to deal Soler, with the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler and Addison Russell currently on their roster and Schwarber set to return next season. But losing the outfielder would be a blow.

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The Chicago Cubs announced shortstop Addison Russell suffered a left heel contusion Sunday against the Milwaukee Brewers. It is uncertain when he will return to action.

Continue for updates.

Russell Leaves Game, Replaced by Baez 

Sunday, July 24

According to MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, Russell’s removal from Sunday’s game was for precautionary purposes. Muskat also noted he had fouled a ball off the same heel Saturday.

Javier Baez took Russell’s place at shortstop to finish out the game.

Russell’s Injury a Major Scare for Cubs

This would be a significant blow to one of the league’s best teams if Russell misses extended time. 

He played 142 games in his rookie season and finished with a .242 batting average, 13 home runs and 54 RBI. Thus far in 2016, he has 11 homers, 56 RBI and a .417 slugging percentage. His batting average has also improved slightly, climbing to .251.

Russell gives the Cubs some pop lower in the order and helps turn the lineup over for sluggers such as Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. According to ESPN.com, the shortstop finished with an impressive 3.4 offensive WAR in his rookie campaign.

While he is valuable for his bat, his excellent fielding ability stands out as well. According to FanGraphs, Russell was responsible for nine total defensive runs saved above average at second base and 10 at shortstop in 2015 as Chicago’s anchor in the middle of the infield. While he has been locked in as the primary shortstop this year, he has still flashed the same formidable leather in the field.  

Baez will likely fill in as the starting shortstop while Russell is out. Baez started the 2016 campaign on the disabled list with a thumb injury, but he is arguably Chicago’s most versatile player and can fill in at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield when needed.

Second baseman Ben Zobrist can also play shortstop. Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune noted Zobrist was Russell’s immediate backup at the start of the season when Baez was on the disabled list, and the former Tampa Bay Ray has made a career of filling in at various spots across the field.

Tommy La Stella is another infielder who can serve as an emergency starter when necessary, even though he is more of a third or second baseman.

While the Cubs have enough depth to survive a short-term setback, they need Russell’s stellar glove and promising bat if they plan to deliver on elevated expectations in 2016.

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The Chicago Cubs (53-35) lost 15 of their last 21 games heading into the MLB All-Star break, including nine of 11, but they are still +375 favorites (bet $100 to win $375) to end their championship drought at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

The Cubs own a seven-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals (46-42) in the National League Central and are 7.5 games ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates (46-43), two teams that finished with better records a year ago but ended up losing to Chicago in the playoffs.

The Cardinals (+3300 to win the World Series) are at their lowest point of the season from a betting perspective after sitting at +1800 back on April 29.

Meanwhile, the Pirates (+5000) are even lower and were +2000 on April 29, when the Cubs were +500.

The division’s Milwaukee Brewers (38-49) and Cincinnati Reds (32-57) have virtually no shot to win the World Series right now at +50000 and +200000, respectively.

Two other division leaders in the league look to be Chicago’s top competition for the pennant. The NL West-leading San Francisco Giants (57-33) are the second choice to win the World Series at +550, and the NL East-leading Washington Nationals (54-36) are +900.

The Giants have won the World Series in the past three even-numbered years and were as high as +1400 to win it this year on April 29.

The Nationals opened the season at +1800 on April 6 and were the +750 second choice on April 29.

The American League won home-field advantage in the World Series for the fourth consecutive year on Tuesday with a 4-2 victory in the 87th MLB All-Star Game. That worked out well last season for the Kansas City Royals (45-43), who won the World Series after taking the AL Central with a 95-67 mark.

The Royals are +2000 to repeat on the World Series odds and will likely need to overtake the Cleveland Indians (52-36) to make the playoffs this year. The Indians went 81-80 a year ago, and they are the +750 fourth choice to win the World Series behind another division leader from the AL in the Texas Rangers (54-36).

The Rangers are +700 to win the World Series and have appeared in it twice in the previous six seasons. They lost both times, though, falling to San Francisco in 2010 and St. Louis in 2011.

The Toronto Blue Jays (51-40) beat Texas in last year’s AL Divisional Series, and they are among three teams in the AL East that are more than 10 games over .500.

The Blue Jays are +1000 to win the World Series, ahead of both the division-leading Baltimore Orioles (51-36) and Boston Red Sox (49-38), who are each +1400. The Orioles have been one of the biggest movers on those odds since the season started.

Betting information courtesy of Odds Shark.

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Twenty years ago, there was a team with two young stars batting in the middle of the lineup. The way Baseball-Reference.com calculates wins above replacement, Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez of the 1996 Seattle Mariners finished first and second in the American League, and nobody else was close.

Either one of them could have been the AL’s Most Valuable Player that year. Neither of them won it.

Rodriguez finished second. Griffey finished fourth.

Nothing against Juan Gonzalez, the Texas Rangers outfielder who won the MVP that year, but it’s easy to believe some voters picked between Griffey and Rodriguez and ended up costing both of them the award.

Had Griffey’s four first-place votes gone to Rodriguez, A-Rod would have won. Instead, he finished second in one of the closest MVP votes ever.

So yes, if you’re wondering whether Chicago Cubs friends and teammates Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo could cost each other the MVP this year, it is possible. History and logic say it’s highly unlikely, but it is possible.

It happened before, and it seems A-Rod never forgot it.

“To this day, he’s never really forgiven me,” said Jim Street, who covered the A-Rod/Junior Mariners for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer and put Griffey ahead of Rodriguez on his ballot (but voted Gonzalez ahead of both of them). “Five years later, he saw me in the Texas Rangers clubhouse and introduced me to Michael Young and Ivan Rodriguez as ‘the guy who cost me the MVP in ’96.'”

It’s hard to imagine either Bryant or Rizzo doing that. It may never come to it, anyway, because there’s half a season to go and there’s every chance that by the end of September their numbers won’t be similar. There’s every chance that one of them, or someone else entirely, will be an obvious MVP choice.

For now, they both should be near the top of the list. Bryant has a few more home runs (25-20), a few more RBI (64-61) and a slightly higher slugging percentage (.574-.560). Rizzo leads in batting average (.282-.278) and on-base percentage (.402-.369).

Cubs players and staff say Rizzo is more of a team leader, but Bryant gets credit for starting games at four different positions.

“One guy drives the bus one day, the other guy drives the bus the other,” catcher David Ross said. “I can’t choose. It’s a good problem to have.”

It’s good for the Cubs—potentially bad for the writers who follow them and may need to choose. The consensus among Cubs beat writers seems to be Bryant would be the pick right now, but obviously that could change.

“It’s a great debate,” said Jim Deshaies, the Cubs television analyst. “You can make a compelling argument for both of them. I might go 51-49 for Bryant right now.”

There’s no guarantee that either of them will win, or even that either should win.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports put Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Matt Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals ahead of both Cubs candidates on his hypothetical midseason ballot (although both are now on the disabled list). Joel Sherman of the New York Post picked Bryant, but with Kershaw, Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies, Carpenter and Daniel Murphy of the Washington Nationals behind him.

The ultimate choice won’t be announced until November, and it will belong to 30 writers selected by the Baseball Writers Association of America, which gives out the MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year. In theory, that means two writers from every National League city, although with newspaper consolidation and restrictions on voting, it doesn’t always work that way.

Even so, the MVP panel has enough balance to overcome regional biases that can affect awards like the Heisman Trophy. History shows that in most cases, teammates don’t take votes from each other, or if they do, it doesn’t swing the election.

Over the last 50 years, 50 teams have had multiple players receive first-place votes in the same year. In 25 of those cases, one of those multiple players receiving votes won the award. In six, players from the same team finished first and second.

In almost all the other cases, even adding all the first-place votes for players from one team together wouldn’t have changed the outcome.

The ’96 Mariners were the exception, but there were also exceptional circumstances that season. Significantly, the Mariners didn’t make the playoffs, finishing 4.5 games behind Gonzalez’s Rangers.

Street, who had one of the votes assigned to Seattle (Bob Finnigan of the Seattle Times had the other), said he would have voted Griffey first had the Mariners won, but switched to Gonzalez when the Rangers held on.

Street said he voted Griffey second and Rodriguez fourth because he believed Griffey had a bigger impact on the team, and because others were telling him the same thing.

“We had a three-city trip in September, and I went to each opposing manager and asked, ‘Who do you most fear in this lineup?'” Street said. “I talked to Mike Hargrove in Cleveland, Bob Boone in Kansas City and Tom Kelly in Minnesota. They all said Griffey was the MVP on that team.”

In a 2013 retrospective for the Times, Finnigan wrote that he went to Mariners manager Lou Piniella with the same question. Piniella, he said, chose Griffey.

“I’m not going to say Lou swayed me,” Finnigan wrote. “He only confirmed what I thought I saw, what I truly believed: When it came to most valuable, Griffey was the only choice.”

Finnigan also went to A-Rod, who told him Griffey was the Mariners’ MVP.

Rodriguez, though, had slightly better numbers. Outside Seattle, most writers voted him ahead of Griffey. An exception was John Hickey of the Oakland Tribune, who voted Alex Rodriguez seventh and Ivan Rodriguez of the Rangers third.

Had Hickey reversed those votes, A-Rod would have been the MVP. But he didn’t, and it was Street and Finnigan who felt the most heat.

“The columnist at my own paper [Laura Vecsey] came out and said the Seattle writers didn’t have the guts to vote against Griffey,” Street said. “Our newspaper had a Star of the Year banquet, and when Alex won, he said, ‘It’s a good thing Street and Finnigan didn’t vote for this.'”

Twenty years later, the arguments go on. Gonzalez often makes lists of the most undeserving MVPs (including this 2011 Bleacher Report list by Arad Markowitz). A-Rod should have won, Markowitz wrote.

Twenty years from now, you wonder if someone will say the same about Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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Jake Arrieta is trying to author a worthy follow-up to a Cy Young-winning season, and he’s doing it on a Chicago Cubs team that’s trying to end a 108-year championship drought.

Nobody ever said accomplishing either task would be easy.

After losing the first two games of a four-game series against the New York Mets, the Cubs turned to Arrieta on Saturday hoping he would at least give them a chance to escape Citi Field with a split. Instead, Arrieta kicked things off with a 35-pitch first inning that included a two-run homer by Neil Walker, and ultimately lasted just five and one-third in a 4-3 loss.

With that, Arrieta turned a meager two-start skid into a slightly more concerning three-start skid:

A 5.96 ERA over three starts doesn’t constitute a disaster, but it’s still jarring once you remember this is the same guy who posted a 1.77 ERA last season. And for any pitcher, a 14-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over three starts is…not good.

The Cubs have other problems—and we’ll get to those—but this is one they particularly don’t want to deal with. It’s supposed to be Easy Win Day when Arrieta pitches. It hasn’t been recently, and that obviously raises the question of what’s wrong.

Arrieta appears to be OK physically. Brooks Baseball can show his arm slot has been reasonably consistent all year. The same goes for his velocity. And though he didn’t have his best stuff against the Mets, he did sit around 94 mph with his sinker and climbed as high as 95.6 mph

As that K/BB ratio suggests, Arrieta’s bigger problem has been execution. To an extent, this isn’t just a blip on the radar.

Arrieta’s overall strike percentage is down from 65.2 in 2015 to 63.2 in 2016. A primary issue has been his command of his sinker. Going into Saturday, he was putting a smaller percentage of his sinkers in the strike zone than he was in 2015:

• 2015: 55.1 percent
• 2016: 51.2 percent

These aren’t perfectly clear windows into what’s up with Arrieta’s command. But they back up what the eye test has been saying all along: relative to last year’s overwhelmingly great performance, Arrieta hasn’t been as sharp in 2016.

But before we go turning a molehill into a mountain, here’s a good point from Ryan M. Spaeder:

Arrieta’s ERA was 1.74 before he hit this rough patch, but a 2.33 ERA is still pretty darn good. And with 115 strikeouts in 108.1 innings pitched, he hasn’t needed a ton of help from the baseball gods to get his ERA low. He’s still slinging some nasty stuff.

As for Arrieta’s command of that stuff, at least he’s aware he can’t keep doing the same things and expect different results.

“It’s a game of adjustments,” Arrieta said after the St. Louis Cardinals beat him June 22, per Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. “I have to take it in stride and learn from it and go back to work tomorrow and combat the things that teams have done against me recently. It’s an easy fix. I think the byproduct will be very positive.”

So far, it hasn’t been an easy fix. But in light of what Arrieta did last season and what he’s done this season even despite some issues, he’s more than deserving of the benefit of the doubt.

In the realm of Cubs-related issues, the big picture is more concerning than what’s going on with Arrieta. They’ve won only four of their last 13 games, with three of those wins coming against the lowly Cincinnati Reds. Go back even further, and they’re now just 26-23 since getting out to that incredible 25-6 start.

Such is life when flaws begin to show themselves. And right now, the skipper is well aware of the one that’s plaguing his offense.

“For the most part, we were really good this April at making contact,” Joe Maddon said after Thursday’s 4-3 loss, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. “May was not as kind, June we’re falling backwards. We have to get back to where we were in April. That’s my biggest concern.”

Making contact was a problem last year, as the Cubs offense led baseball with a 24.5 strikeout percentage. This year, that problem has indeed caught up to them after hiding in April. From April to May to June, the Cubs’ strikeout rate has risen from 19.0 to 21.8 to 24.3. They now already have 23 whiffs in two games in July.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are also having issues with their bullpen. Its ERA has gone from 2.72 in April to 3.80 in May to 3.96 in June. They may be getting more antsy about this, as George A. King III of the New York Post recently reported the Cubs had dispatched three scouts to observe the New York Yankees‘ trio of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.

Things have certainly changed since that 25-6 start. Around then, it was hard to argue with FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron’s notion that the Cubs looked like a perfect baseball team. But looking back now, it was obviously too good to be true.

However, a state of panic is not advised.

The Cubs offense may be racking up the whiffs, but whiffs didn’t stop it from being dangerous last year. So it goes in 2016. As of this moment, the Cubs still sit atop the National League with 420 runs scored. With an OPS in June (.792) that was much like their OPS in April (.796), they’re also not necessarily trending backward. And if Jason Heyward gets going (and he should), this offense will find another gear.

The Cubs’ pitching could also be in worse shape. This is mainly because their starters have yet to post an ERA over 3.00 in any month. With Arrieta likely to be fine in the long run, only Jason Hammel’s history of slow finishes is worth worrying about.

And as much as everyone is freaking out about the club’s bullpen, the last month could have been worse. Remove Adam Warren, Justin Grimm and Joel Peralta from the equation, and Cubs relievers pitched to a 2.66 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 61 innings. Thanks mainly to strong work from Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and Trevor Cahill, the core of the bullpen held strong.

The Cubs may no longer be perfect, but their downfall hasn’t taken them from “perfect” to “bad.” They’re still a formidable team. In the parlance of our times, all that’s happening now is them going through some [stuff].

It’s not pretty, but it probably won’t be permanent.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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This season, there’s a euphoria that has consumed Chicago Cubs fans unlike anything the city’s North Side has seen for, say, a little over 100 years.

The lovable losers finally have their World Series contender. Heck, let’s just come right out and say it: This team is the favorite to win it all. In case you haven’t heard, there’s a summer-long party raging at Wrigley Field. The team hasn’t won anything yet except a whole bunch of regular-season games. But can you blame its fans for enjoying the ride?

As lifelong Cubs fans party like it’s 1908, one of the team’s newcomers has to be quietly thanking baseball’s higher power (his name in Chicago is team president of baseball operations Theo Epstein) more than anyone for the Cubs’ incredible success.

Cubs right fielder Jason Heyward signed an eight-year, $184 million contract this offseason, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. In his first year with the Cubs, Heyward has thus far posted an awful slash line of .235/.326/.325.

It’s inarguable that Heyward has been inept offensively. For those who want to try, the sky is blue and water is wet, in case that isn’t apparent either.

Chicago’s success this season has camouflaged Heyward’s failures.

The right fielder’s struggles haven’t been as prominent because the Cubs have been so good. Any discussion about a player’s success or failure is predicated on the idea that fans want the team to win.

The Cubs have done so this season, holding MLB’s best record at 51-27. Heyward playing better wouldn’t do much for the Cubs as far as the standings are concerned. And in the regular season, there’s no higher to go than baseball’s best record.

But the condensed nature of the playoffs—short series relative to a 162-game schedule—magnify a player’s struggles or successes. Come October, Heyward’s reeling bat in the No. 2 spot in the lineup could negatively impact a series for the Cubs.

And beyond this season, if he continues to struggle offensively, his contract could become an albatross.

Yes, Heyward has been the defensive stalwart the Cubs expected when they signed him to a long-term deal. He is third amongst outfielders with an ultimate zone rating of 10.3 and fourth with a defensive WAR of 7.6, according to FanGraphs.

But his total WAR, the ultimate calculation of a player’s value, is only 1.1 (per FanGraphs)—an extremely low number for someone making Heyward money. And he wouldn’t have gotten such a lucrative contract had he not hit .293/.359/.439 with the St. Louis Cardinals last season.

The fact is that Heyward may be known best for his defense. But his contract suggests an expectation that he help the team at the plate as well. He does, after all, hit second for the Cubs.

It’s not just the totality of his struggles, either.

Heyward seems to come up short in the biggest moments of a game. With runners on base, he is only hitting .205 and has just six extra-base hits on the year in those situations.

Thought by everyone in baseball to be the prize of last winter’s free-agent class of position players, Heyward has more strikeouts (27) than hits (25) with runners on base. And when runners are in scoring position, he is hitting only .227/.311/.318.

Come playoff time, starting rotations shrink. A team’s best pitchers play more. And opportunities to score runs are fewer. They can’t be squandered.

So Heyward’s struggles in those situations will only come into focus more.

Don’t expect his offensive woes to keep him out of the lineup. His defensive value will still make him better than any alternative on the Cubs bench when the playoffs come around. Runs saved defensively count just the same as runs generated on offense.

But Heyward could continue to play himself into a situation where Cubs manager Joe Maddon may have to consider a pinch hitter when the team finds itself down late in playoff games.

In fairness, Heyward’s June has been better than the first two months of the season. He is hitting .257/.336/.386. But those numbers are still below his career averages of .265/.351/.422.

He still could easily climb out of this season-long slump.

It’s a credit to Heyward that he hasn’t taken his offensive struggles into the outfield. His accomplishments as an outfielder certainly impacted the high demand for his services this offseason.

Analytics quantify a player’s defensive value more than ever. Heyward is a beneficiary.

But the size of his contract suggests that he cannot be a one-way player. Hitting in an important spot in the lineup, ahead of sluggers Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, it’s important Heyward gets on base.

He hasn’t done so enough this season.

As the Cubs continue to win, destined for October, Heyward’s struggles won’t be reflected in the standings. Discussion about them won’t even matter.

Come the playoffs, though, there are fewer games and fewer at-bats. Each play means exponentially more.

And if he continues to swing the bat poorly, Heyward could end up the party pooper on Chicago’s North Side.

Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Talk baseball with Seth by following him on Twitter @SethGruen.

All stats are accurate through the completion of Thursday’s games.

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Fact: On Monday, Kris Bryant became the youngest Chicago Cubs player since at least 1913* to hit three or more home runs in a game.

*Available data only goes back to 1913.

Bleacher Report will be bringing sports fans the most interesting and engaging Cold Hard Fact of the day, presented by Coors Light.

Source: B/R Insights

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Kris Bryant was the College Player of the Year in 2013, the Minor League Player of the Year in 2014 and the National League Rookie of the Year in 2015.

Clearly, the guy likes to outdo himself. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised about what he’s doing in 2016.

The Chicago Cubs entered Monday in a funk, having lost six out of seven. But their young third baseman helped them snap out of it in a big way with an 11-8 win over the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Bryant went 5-for-5 with not one but two doubles and not one, not two but three home runs.

You are now formally invited to slack your jaw and gawk at all three of Bryant’s dingers, each of which was a mighty clout:

Immediately after Bryant sent that third baseball into the Cincinnati night, the tidbits started rolling in. Here’s a sampling:

• Per ESPN Stats and Info, Bryant’s 16 total bases were four more than any other hitter has accumulated in a game this season.
• Also per ESPN Stats and Info, Bryant was the first Cub to tally 16 total bases in the modern era.
• Per MLB, Bryant was the first player since 1913 to hit three homers and two doubles in a game.

“It’s the best game of my whole life,” the 24-year-old said, via Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com.

And with it now over, it’s apparent the general awesomeness of Bryant’s 2016 season is well ahead of his star turn as a rookie in 2015:

Bryant isn’t just outpacing his 2015 self. As of this moment, FanGraphs has him leading all National League position players in WAR. After coming into the year as one of the league’s best everyday players, he’s now arguably the best.

Granted, you could have seen that as the next logical step for him. And if it’s a step he was going to take, it would certainly be his bat that would help him take it. This is, after all, the same guy who hit 10 more homers than any other player in the country during his final collegiate season and slashed .327/.426/.667 in the minors before getting the call to the majors. Hitting is kinda-sorta Bryant’s thing.

However, the big upgrade we’re seeing hasn’t come simply from gaining experience in 2015 and then showing up for 2016. Bryant wasn’t content with the swing he had last year, so he got a new one.

“I feel [my swing is] a little flatter, and that’s what I wanted to be,” Bryant said in February, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. “It was at too steep of an angle at times. That was my downfall last year, but I think it can only get better from here.”

By the logic of the ol’ “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” argument, Bryant risked much by tinkering with his swing. But he had a good excuse to give it a whirl.

His big weakness as a rookie was a tendency to swing and miss. A flatter swing would hypothetically allow him to be more direct to the ball, and thus better at making contact. And sure enough, Bryant’s strikeout percentage has dropped from 30.6 to 22.6.

That’s Benefit No. 1 of his new swing, but Benefit No. 2 is just as important: better contact. Courtesy of Baseball Savant, here’s how Bryant’s average launch angle, exit velocity and batted ball distance compared to last year entering Monday’s game:

A slight downward shift in Bryant’s average launch angle has translated to a higher rate of batted balls in the 25- to 30-degree sweet spot for power highlighted by FiveThirtyEight’s Rob Arthur in April. As such, it makes sense that Bryant’s exit velocity and distance have improved.

And remember, this was before Monday’s outburst. On Tuesday, those numbers will look even better.

Fewer strikeouts and better batted balls may not be the only benefits of Bryant’s new swing. More plate coverage could be yet another, as his batting average against pitches in the outer third of the strike zone and beyond has improved like so:

• 2015: .181
• 2016: .239

Pitchers seemed to have noticed this, as Bryant told Gonzales last week that they’ve taken to “pounding me in.” It can’t be said they’ve found a solution in doing so, however. Bryant’s slugging percentage against pitches in the inner third of the zone and beyond is yet another thing that’s improved:

• 2015: .577
• 2016: .676

This doesn’t mean Bryant is completely devoid of shortcomings. His strikeout rate is low by his own standards, but not by everyone else’s. And per Brooks Baseball, any pitcher who can make Bryant reach for an offering stands a pretty good chance of getting him out.

But relative to what Bryant did in his debut season, these are mere nitpicks. His list of weaknesses at the plate has shrunk considerably. So, too, has the list of ways to contain him.

It may just have been a matter of time before a team failed to stop him at least once on a given night. The Reds were the ones to fall on that sword, which leaves just one question going forward:

How will Bryant outdo himself next?

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Chicago Cubs slugger Kris Bryant is one of baseball’s brightest young hitters, and he demolished Dan Straily and the Cincinnati Reds in an 11-8 Cubs victory Monday.

Bryant finished 5-for-5 with three home runs, six RBI and four runs scored, which etched his name into the baseball record book, per MLB‘s Twitter account:

Normally, that would be plenty of run support for the Cubs and their major league-leading 2.83 team ERA. Yet Bryant still needed some help from his teammates.

Ace Jake Arrieta pitched poorly, allowing five earned runs on four hits and five walks in five innings, but he still earned a win—thanks in part to a homer of his own.

Bryant started the night with a run-scoring double off Straily in the first inning and later scored on Miguel Montero’s sacrifice fly. In his next at-bat, Bryant smashed his first home run to left-center field in the third inning.

He hit a three-run jack halfway up the second deck in left in the fourth to give Chicago a 7-3 lead, as Statcast showed:

That was his last at-bat against Straily, who allowed seven earned runs on nine hits and three walks in 3.2 innings.

In the sixth, Bryant doubled off Michael Lorenzen, and in the eighth, he hit a solo shot off Ross Ohlendorf.

ESPN Stats & Info noted the 24-year-old set a Cubs record—and an offensive standard for the season:

Bryant’s season totals also received a nice boost, per CSN Chicago’s Christopher Kamka:

Per Ryan M. Spaeder of Sporting News, Bryant has been on a hot streak of late:

Spaeder also noted Bryant’s performance put him in the most exclusive of categories:

CBS Chicago’s Joe Ostrowski found a way to compare Bryant to Bryant’s childhood teammate, Bryce Harper:

While Bryant may not be in line for that type of money yet, he showed how dangerous he can be with his dominant performance Monday.

He is already among baseball’s elite sluggers in only his second big league season. And with a Cubs lineup that ranks fourth in the majors in runs around him, Bryant should have an ample number of opportunities to crush the ball the rest of the year.

Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

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