Kuzul

Probably not, but I figured someone owed Paul Konerko some publicity since ESPN often either forgets to do actual reporting and research or simply forgets to be logical.

As of Wednesday, Miguel Cabrera is out for the season due to a sprained ankle, so his numbers are concrete at .328 BA, .420 OBP, .622 SLG, and a 1.042 OPS to go along with 38 home runs, 126 RBI, 111 runs, and three stolen bases in 150 games played.

On the other side, Josh Hamilton is set to return Friday, meaning he will finish with, at most, 133 games played. He is currently hitting .361 with a .414 OBP, a .635 SLG, and a 1.049 OPS to go along with 31 home runs, 97 RBI, 94 runs, and eight stolen bases.

Let us not forget we ran Carlos Quentin out of the MVP race two seasons ago because he missed the final month of the season after punching his bat when the Chicago White Sox were in the heat of a pennant race, thus handing the award to Dustin Pedroia, although Kevin Youkilis deserved it. Quentin finished with 130 games played.

Are we going to judge the MVP by an injury or when it occurs? If Quentin was hurt in the first month of the season rather than the last month, would he have been MVP?

Konerko being a top MVP candidate is no laughing matter.

Konerko currently is hitting .310 with a .390 OBP, a .581 SLG, and a .971 OPS to go along with 38 home runs, 107 RBI, and 88 runs.

Konerko has Hamilton in all the eye-appealing stats and one could point to the 16 more games played and 32 more at-bats as reason for the massive difference in the percentage numbers. 

But then again, one could point to the more at-bats as being the reason for the difference in home runs and RBI.

Robinson Cano is a dark horse in this whole thing, only because the above players have played on a different planet.

Cano is hitting .316, with a .376 OBP, a 528 SLG, and a .904 OPS to go along with 28 home runs, 106 RBI, 100 runs, and two stolen bases.

It looks as though, unless something drastic changes, Cabrera’s numbers hold up for the MVP. But with Cabrera being done for the year and Hamilton having three games tops to add to his resume, a hot streak for Konerko or Cano could completely change the race.

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With back-to-back wins against the San Diego Padres this week, the Chicago Cubs are now 21-11 under interim manager Mike Quade.

The impetus for this resurgence has been the team’s much-improved starting rotation: Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Randy Wells have combined to win 13 times during the span, and Zambrano is 6-0 under Quade.

Despite the success of that trio, however, much about the Cubs‘ rotation for 2011 remains shrouded in mystery.

Wells’ future may still be in doubt after a dreadful middle third of the season, leaving either two or three spots in next year’s rotation vacant.

Carlos Silva, who had a stellar season going through the end of June, made just five appearances after early July and posted a 14.21 ERA with eight walks in 12.2 innings during those games. Southpaw Tom Gorzelanny has a 4.98 ERA and 1.50 WHIP since returning to the starting rotation in June and struggled Friday after missing three weeks with a badly bruised left pinkie finger.

Right-hander Casey Coleman has muddied the waters still more by throwing six innings or more in six straight starts, needing 100 or more pitches to do so just twice.

If the Cubs hope to contend in 2011, they will need to shore up the rotation with one or two new faces next season. Coleman has been largely unimpressive, though consistent, and Jeff Samardzija has made it painfully clear that he will never blossom into the fire-balling ace for whom GM Jim Hendry hoped when he signed the former Notre Dame standout.

By all accounts, the Cubs will prioritize improving the offense this winter, which makes it difficult to envision the team adding a substantial free-agent starter. Cliff Lee, the market’s lone elite hurler, is well beyond their budgetary range.

There are a few in-house candidates to make the jump from either the big-league bullpen or the minors to the rotation, as well as some second-tier options on the open market. What follows is a full breakdown of the possibilities.

Free Agents

1. Jorge De La Rosa, LHP

De La Rosa is the least heralded of the offseason’s upside risks, and a recent quote by an unnamed executive comparing him to the infamous Oliver Perez could suppress his value. Still, it will take a contract approaching three years and $25 million to lure the Rockies hurler away, and he would cost the Cubs a second-round draft pick as well. This would be a highly intriguing move, but it isn’t very likely.

2. Justin Duchscherer, RHP

After two seasons virtually lost to injuries, Duchscherer will hit the market in search of almost anyone willing to give him a guaranteed big-league deal.

At 33 years old and having pitched just 28 innings over the past two years, he may have trouble finding it, but the Cubs might at least take a look: Duchscherer pitched 141.1 innings in 2008 for Oakland, posting a 2.54 ERA and walking narrowly more than a third as many batters as he whiffed.

3. Ted Lilly, LHP

Never say never to a return by Lilly, but it seems as though the team’s protracted payroll for next year and Lilly’s strong finish to the season with Los Angeles puts him outside the Cubs’ range. Still, the fans would flip for such a move, and Lilly had three-and-a-half great seasons as Chicago’s No. 2 starter.

Homegrown Talent

1. Andrew Cashner, RHP

Cashner is probably better suited to the role he has now, coming out of the team’s bullpen. The Cubs need him there, anyway, given the miserable performance of their relief corps this season. Because of his electric stuff and the 2008 first-round pick Hendry spent on Cashner, however, there will always be whispers of stretching him out when the rotation has holes to fill.

2. Jay Jackson, RHP

It was an up-and-down season for Jackson at Triple-A Iowa, but he entered the season as Baseball America’s fifth-best prospect in the Cubs system, and the second-best pitcher. He showed the best command of his pro career this year, striking out 119 and walking only 48 in 157.1 innings. Jackson will likely get a chance to win at least a bullpen role on next year’s team.

3. Chris Carpenter, RHP

He may need to change his name, but Carpenter is a good back-end prospect who could progress very quickly in what will be his third full pro season in 2011. He struck out 112 and walked 57 on the way to a 3.45 ERA in 143.2 innings at Double- and Triple-A this season.

4. Chris Archer, RHP

Almost no one would say Archer has even a chance at reaching the big leagues next spring. Then again, almost no one would have predicted that Archer would go 15-3 with 149 strikeouts in 144.1 innings this year at High-A Daytona and Double-A Tennessee. Although only 22, Archer will enter his sixth pro season in 2011 and could arrive in Chicago by midseason.

Matt Trueblood is a student at Loyola University Chicago and a B/R College Writing Intern. Follow him on Twitter.

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The Padres have quite a bit on their minds right now as they are making a playoff push into the postseason. But it seems like Adrian Gonzalez wants to bring more attention to the team as he announces that he wouldn’t mind listening to what the Cubs have to offer when he becomes a free agent after 2011. 

Gonzalez noted to the Chicago Sun Times the upside and positives in Chicago right now, that wouldn’t make it a bad place to play. Maybe the thought that they have not won a World Series in over 100 years skipped his mind. 

The Cubs are going to have to flash the big bucks in order to reel him out of San Diego. But the market for the power hitting first-baseman will always include big- name teams like the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox front office were rumored to have made several attempts at trading for the slugger in the past.

The Red Sox have to be the front runners for Adrian Gonzalez’s services after the 2011 season. They have the money and interest, the offer will be on the table for Gonzalez. It’s deal or no deal for them.

The Padres pulled him off the trading block when they were at the top of the National League West standings. If Gonzales is already on a contending team and things keep going upward in San Diego, why wouldn’the want to stay?

The Padres’ first-baseman started to sound like he was ready to leave town as he noted how great the ballpark in the Windy City would be for him and how his wife loves Chicago’s shopping. 

Hey, baseball wives have a lot of say in the destination that their husbands choose during free agency. Leigh Teixeira had her husband choose the Yankees in the eleventh hour, and one year later he has a championship ring. 

If that’s the case with Mrs. Gonzalez and the Cubs finally win big, she could be put into the Cubs Hall of Fame in an instant. 

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Who says you can’t go home?

Kerry Wood, the sometime Cub who remains beloved of the team’s fanbase, will be a free agent this winter.

After signing a two-year contract in December 2008 with the Cleveland Indians, Wood struggled to stay healthy and effective. He posted a 4.80 ERA in 81 games with Cleveland before a July trade to the New York Yankees.

Since reaching the Bronx, however, Wood’s career has come back from the brink. He has a stunning (if inevitably lucky) 0.39 ERA in 21 appearances as a Yankee and has struck out 26 in 23 innings. He will not get a multi-year deal this offseason but could command $5 million or more on the open market.

A number of teams could take an interest at Wood at that price range, but one dark horse candidate would be by far the most interesting destination for Wood: the Chicago Cubs.

Wood loved Chicago during his original 10-year tenure, making it his permanent home and remaining there with his family even after signing with Cleveland. The city embraced him, and many Cubs fans still consider Wood the greatest Cub of his generation.

If that old mutual admiration between the Cubs and their former prodigy still exists, it could be the perfect time for a reunion. Wood is just 33 years old, despite his extreme veteran status, and still leads all active players in strikeouts per nine innings.

His command—which was at its best during Wood’s last season in Chicago—has abandoned him since his move to the junior circuit, but a return to the Cubs could help cure that malady.

On the Cubs’ side, Wood would be a good fit on a 2011 team that needs at least one more effective reliever. On a one-year deal, the team need not feel overly committed to Wood, especially if prospects like Jay Jackson and Tyrelle Harris prove big-league ready. If not, though, Wood would be a good seventh- and even eighth-inning pitcher, allowing the team to stretch out Andrew Cashner or Jeff Samardzija and start them if need be.

The experiment may or may not work and seems unlikely even to be attempted. If it were to be successful, though, it could go a long way toward shoring up the Cubs’ pitching staff in 2011—and it would make for a satisfying homecoming for Wood.

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The Chicago Cubs will be among four teams most eager to sign free agent-to-be Carl Crawford this offseason, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter).

If true, this is a stunning development for a team with a bloated payroll to which owner Tom Ricketts has thus far seemed unwilling to add substantial amounts.

Crawford is certainly the winter’s big catch: He has speed beyond anything seen in Chicago since the failed Juan Pierre experiment of 2006 and plays his position (left field) better than anyone since Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Crawford has also put together his best all-around offensive season in 2010, batting .306/.358/.492 with 16 home runs.

There is no question, then, why GM Jim Hendry and the Cubs would have interest in Crawford. Even with their crowded outfield, Crawford would be a huge addition both in the field and at the top of the lineup.

However, there is ample reason to believe that Crawford and the Cubs are no match.

First of all, the team’s finances could stand in the way. Crawford should command at least $75 million on a four-year deal, and given the level of interest, both figures could be higher.

The Cubs already have Alfonso Soriano (to be discussed more very soon), Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Dempster, and Kosuke Fukudome on the books for over $14 million each in 2011, and big raises are due to Geovany Soto, Carlos Marmol, and Sean Marshall. Unless Ricketts is willing to allow the team to spend in excess of $143 million again next season, the budget may not be big enough for Crawford.

Even if the team can find room on its books for Crawford, they would have a troublesome logjam in the outfield. Marlon Byrd has presumably played well enough to keep his place in center field, and Crawford is unlikely to want to switch out of his comfortable domain in left field anyway. To make way for him, then, the team would need to move Soriano to first base, where there is no apparent incumbent.

This idea isn’t altogether unpalatable: Soriano’s fielding has improved on the order of leaps and bounds since 2009, but he remains an unsteady fielder in left and has the lithe build of a first baseman. His rejuvenation at the plate in 2010 (after a miserable 2009) makes the thought even more plausible.

Still, it seems unlikely that the Cubs are ready to add Crawford and risk moving their worst defensive player to a more prominent spot on the diamond. Crawford will probably get better offers elsewhere, and thus the point may be moot. If the Cubs can afford and accommodate the four-time All Star, however, it may make for a fast track back to prominence in the NL Central.

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On August 17, 2007, it was difficult to see exactly how stable the Chicago Cubs would be in the long-term.

There were still seven years left on Alfonso Soriano’s contract, four left on Aramis Ramirez’s, and three on Derrek Lee’s and Ted Lilly’s, but Soriano, Lee, and Lilly were all heading into their age 32 seasons. Young players like Rich Hill, Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol, Angel Guzman, and Ryan Theriot had shown some promise but weren’t far enough into their careers to even approach status as a known quantity.

Michael Barrett, who was eventually traded, and Jacque Jones were having much worse offensive seasons than expected. Mark Prior, who was later released, had season-ending shoulder surgery before the season, and Kerry Wood was only 5.2 innings into his comeback as a full-time reliever.

And then there was the ownership situation.

Back in April of that year, all shares of the Tribune Co., the parent company of the Cubs at the time, were bought out by Sam Zell. The new owner immediately announced his plans to sell the team, Wrigley Field, and possibly even the naming rights to Wrigley Field.

So when the Cubs announced that they had reached a five-year, $91.5 million agreement with 26-year-old ace Carlos Zambrano, buying out his first five years of free agency, it was clear that they were trying to lock up someone that North Siders could count on for years to come.

The talent was clearly there and he had already put up some impressive numbers for a young pitcher. Between 2003 and 2007, Zambrano struck out 7.9 batters per nine innings, held batters to a .224/.315/.346 batting line, kept up a 3.30 ERA, and averaged 215 innings pitched every year.

But Zambrano’s temper had already become a topic for discussion after his altercation with Barrett in June of 2007. Meanwhile, his velocity had already begun to drop. Also, in his five seasons of being a full-time major league starter, 2007 was easily the worst up to that point.

His 2008 campaign would have set a new low point for Carlos (relatively speaking) if not for his September 14 no-hitter against the displaced Astros with an arm fresh off of 11 days rest. Rather than bouncing back the following year, 2009 followed the same trend as the previous two and was the second straight season below 200 innings with only 169.1 on the year due to two stints on the disabled list.

Coming into this season, Zambrano had dropped 15 pounds, his cutter, and, supposedly, his attitude. Expectations were high, including from manager Lou Piniella, but Z’s strong performance in spring training was followed by an ugly season opener against the Braves, three sub-par outings, and a switch to the bullpen.

He had his ups and downs in his five weeks as a reliever, returned to the rotation with three more sub-par starts, and had a very solid outing against the Angels on June 20.

Then all hell broke loose.

In the first inning of an interleague game against the White Sox, Zambrano gave up four runs on four hits. He then had a now-infamous tirade in the dugout directed towards his teammates’ effort on the field, was removed from the game, and was suspended indefinitely.

Opinions flew about what the Cubs should do with the big right-hander, but the vast majority stayed within the same theme: get rid of him however you can.

The Cubs put Zambrano on the restricted list on June 29, announced that he was going to be evaluated by professionals and undergo treatment for his anger issues, and made it clear that he would return to the bullpen when he eventually did come back.

After four minor league outings in late July, he finally returned to the big league team for three unimpressive outings from the bullpen before returning to the rotation once again.

So what has he done since then?

Well, he’s averaged 6.1 innings per game in nine starts, posted a 1.42 ERA, racked up 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings, and held opposing batters to a .194/.315/.235 batting line.

His walk totals have been less-than-stellar, leading to the .315 opponent on-base percentage I just mentioned, but he has otherwise been the sort of pitcher Cubs fans had hoped for when he signed his deal just over three years ago.

Now the Cubs might have their ace back after a three-year hiatus. And he’s still just 29 years old.

The fact that he’s performing at this level with his velocity near the lowest levels it has ever been is very encouraging for the simple reason that it might very well signal his maturation as a pitcher. If he has also matured as a person, then all the backlash towards his tirade earlier this season might be an overreaction in hindsight.

Rather than being the impetus for his departure from the only organization he’s ever known, his tantrum might have been the wake-up call he needed to get his career back on track for its final two or three years.

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I would imagine there is a lot of pressure on a rookie to get his first major league hit right away. The more AB’s that go by without getting a hit, the more the pressure mounts.

In the case of Oakland A’s OF Chris Carter, the pressure must have been tremendous. The top prospect started his major league career 0-for-33. That’s right. He went zero for his first 33. That must have been brutal for Carter.

Carter finally broke through last night against the Chicago White Sox. In the bottom of the seventh, Carter singled to left off of Scott Linebrink. Carter is now officially 1-for-34.

The A’s have built themselves a young, solid rotation with Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden, and Brett Anderson. Now they need some guys who can hit the ball and drive in runs on a consistent basis. Billy Beane and company are hoping Carter becomes one of those guys.

The A’s desperately need some power at the major league level and Carter has hit 25 plus HR’s the last four years in the minors. The A’s only have three guys who have hit more than 10 HR’s this season.

Once Carter learns the strike zone (striking out over 38 percent of the time) and learns the pitchers of the American League West, I believe he will be a major and much needed power source for the A’s.

Here are some other facts about Chris Carter…

Age: 23

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

College: None. Went to Sierra Vista High School in Las Vegas, NV

Drafted: 15th round of the 2005 Draft by the Chicago White Sox

Minor League Stats:

2005 Rookie: .283/.350/.485 with 10 HR’s and 17 doubles in 65 games

2006 Rookie & High Single A: .273/.373/.522 with 16 HR’s and 24 doubles in 82 games

2007 Single A: .291/.383/.522 with 25 HR’s and 27 doubles in 126 games

2008 High Single A: .259/.361/.569 with 39 HR’s and 32 doubles in 137 games

2009 Double A & Triple A: .329/.422/.570 with 28 HR’s and 43 doubles in 138 games

2010 Triple A: .258/.365/.529 with 31 HR’s and 29 doubles in 125 games

Keith Law Ranking and Analysis

Ranking: No. 33 out of 100 best prospects in baseball in 2010

Analysis: “Carter has made impressive strides since his arrival in the Oakland organization as a power-or-nothing hitter with a long swing and no defensive value, and while he’s still probably a solid DH with thump, he has a chance to contribute in a few different ways. He made a concerted effort to improve his walks without increasing his strikeouts, becoming more selective while cutting down on his normal swing as part of the process.

If he gets a pitch to drive, he’ll load his hands a little deeper to give him more leverage and bring his plus power back out of storage. Carter is limited defensively and will probably max out as a fringe-average first baseman, although the positional logjam in Oakland may make him a DH by default.

Even in Oakland’s ballpark he should be good for 30 homers a year and a solid on-base percentage by his peak.”

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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The Chicago Cubs proved on Tuesday night that Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright is beatable.

They managed to get five runs off him to set up their second victory in as many nights in Busch Stadium. They beat the St. Louis Cardinals by a final score of 7-2.

At the same time, they prevented Wainwright from becoming the National League pitcher with the most wins this season.

Randy Wells pitched a gem to snap his personal two-game winless streak. He gave up only one run and five hits in eight innings, fanning five Cardinals without issuing a walk. The right-hander (7-13) also contributed offensively with two singles and two RBI in four at-bats.

The Cubs scored their first two runs in the second inning.

With one out, Xavier Nady singled off Wainwright. After Geovany Soto’s strikeout, Tyler Colvin walked on four pitches. The Cardinals starter then gave up back-to-back RBI singles to Darwin Barney and Wells that sent Nady and Colvin home.

In the third, Marlon Byrd hit a deep one-out double to right field. Another out later, Nady’s second single of the night tallied Byrd from second.

The Cubs added a couple more runs in the fourth.

Colvin led off with a single, and Barney followed with a double to left field. With runners in scoring position, Wells helped himself to the win again with his second RBI of the night, a single that drove in Colvin from third. After Kosuke Fukudome’s strikeout, Blake DeWitt scored Barney from third with an RBI single.

The Cardinals replied in the bottom of the fourth with their first run of the night. Wells handed a single to leadoff hitter Colby Rasmus, who scored on Matt Holliday’s double to left field. But there was no further damage, as Wells retired the next three batters in a row.

The score remained intact until both teams added runs in the ninth inning. Facing reliever Fernando Salas, Nady singled for the third time to add two more runs for the Cubs.

Rasmus hit his 22nd home run of the season off Cubs reliever James Russell for the Cardinals’ final run. Rasmus, filling in at the No. 3 spot for the injured Albert Pujols, responded well by scoring two runs with two hits tonight.

The Cubs totaled 15 hits tonight, and five different players had multi-hit game. Barney’s three-hit game was the first in his major league career. Nady also had three singles and produced three runs. Besides Wells, Colvin and Byrd also had two-hit nights.

Wainwright (18-11) had faced the Cubs for the first time this season on May 30 in Wrigley Field to help his team win 9-1. But his line tonight was very different; he completed eight innings, giving up five runs on 12 hits, the most he has given up all season long. He also struck out seven, walking only one Cub.

The Cubs will attempt to sweep the Cardinals tomorrow to wrap up their last visit to Busch Stadium in 2010. Manager Mike Quade will send their ace Carlos Zambrano (8-6, 3.88) to the mound to face Chris Carpenter (15-6, 3.09).

This article is also featured on www.sportshaze.com.

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October can’t come any sooner for fans of the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, and Texas Rangers. The American League has little to no excitement on the postseason hunt in September with teams like the Red Sox and White Sox playing for any realistic hope that just isn’t there to be had. 

Major League Baseball is in a difficult spot when it comes down to September every year. The National Football League opens play in September and if a team such as the Red Sox or White Sox is out of the hunt you pretty much forget baseball to focus on your Patriots or Bears. 

Personally to play 162 games in the regular season and only have four teams from each league pass through to the next round of the season makes it impossible for teams to end playoff droughts. Teams like the Washington Nationals or Kansas City Royals will never make it to the playoffs in this system. Not with the wealthier teams dominating in their divisions with no space for them to make any ground up. 

Now with Major League Baseball taking the initiative to end the postseason before Halloween, any such fix to the playoffs would have to be relatively short. So what can be done to fix up a leaking faucet of a playoff system? MLB could start by adding a pair of teams into the mix giving 6 teams a shot at the playoffs from each league. 

American League/National League

Team #1 (Best Record); Bye                                                 Team #1 (Best Record); Bye

Team #2 (Second Best Record); Bye                                     Team #2 (Second Best Record); Bye

Team #3 (Winner advances to LDS)                                       Team #3 (Winner advances to LDS)

Team #4 (Loser goes home)                                                  Team #4 (Loser goes home)

Team #5 (Winner advances to LDS)                                       Team #5 (Winner advances to LDS)

Team #6 (Loser goes home)                                                  Team #6 (Loser goes home) 

Italics: Teams play in Wild Card Series (best-of-three) 

Essentially you would have your usual three division winners and now three wild card winners instead of a solo wild card team from each league. The top two teams from each league, if you were translating to this season, Rays and Yankees in the American League and let’s say Phillies and Reds in the National League would get a “bye” for the first round of the playoffs. 

This extra rest adds incentive to play well in the regular season and finish with a better record. This can be seen as one reason teams rarely reach 100 wins in a season mainly because the All-Star game awarding home-field advantage to the winner. Teams usually rest their players down the stretch once they clinch a spot and that’s what eliminates the triple-digit wins from the standings. 

Beyond the top two teams from each league, you have a pair of “Wild Card Series” games in each league. In order to keep the postseason within the month of October, the “Wild Card Series” should only be a best-of-three format. After it’s said and done, the best team from both leagues faces the lowest seeded team (team with lowest record) and vice-versa with the other two teams in both leagues.

In other words, the postseason would revert back to its original format with the LDS (League Division Series) in a best-of-five and a LCS (League Championship Series) in a best-of-seven. The World Series would be the grand finale to a baseball season in its usual best-of-seven format. 

In using this formula for the National League we would see the likes of the Braves, Reds, Padres, Phillies, Rockies, and Giants all in the playoffs this season. Now this would certainly take away from the luster of making it into the playoffs but it would make for an exciting run to see who can avoid the “Wild Card Series” and have a bye to start off instead. Additionally, more teams would be involved in the playoff mix such as the Cardinals or Marlins although both are further back than the rest of the pack this season. 

In the American League, in addition to the Red Sox and White Sox, a team like the Blue Jays or Athletics could be in the mix. They’re records may not be approximate to Boston and Chicago but it would be better if they knew there were more spots up for grabs. 

The reality is that September is seen a trial period for the grand majority of Major League teams. Rosters expand to 40 players and you have an array of players make their debut or essentially try out for a spot next season. It takes away from having teams go all out at the end versus just laying low and parking your season in. Baseball needs more markets involved while it tries to stay afloat against the National Football League in its final weeks. Having six teams in each league make it to the postseason would give more teams hope they can be in the Fall Classic. Since the league doesn’t have a salary cap it makes it hard for low market franchises to ever dream about October, yes, Pirates, Royals, and Nationals I’m talking to you and I hope Major League Baseball is listening too. 

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This might be hard to believe, but Sean Marshall has probably been better than most Chicago Cubs fans think this season.

Marshall, who turned 28 last month, has had a marvelous season in the Cubs’ bullpen in 2010.

His 6-5 record reflects the confidence both Lou Piniella and Mike Quade have shown in Marshall, using him in tie games 21 times and on back-to-back days 25 times.

Yet there are numbers in Marshall’s stat line this season that leap off the page unexpectedly.

He has nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings, good for 13th in baseball. Largely because of that newfound whiff ability, Marshall also boasts a 2.37 FIP—tied for ninth in the league. 

The strikeouts are well documented: a career-high 85 of them, despite having thrown fewer than 70 frames so far this year. Many fans, however, have not yet taken note of Marshall’s much-improved ground-ball rate.

Until 2010, Marshall had been susceptible to the long ball, allowing 1.2 of them per nine innings in his first four big-league seasons.

This season, that number is 0.39 per nine frames, mostly because Marshall has induced ground balls on over 50 percent of his batted balls. It is the first time in his career that has been true.

Part of the reason is that Marshall’s curveball use is at an all-time high; Marshall gets tremendous tilt and keeps his curve down well, forcing ground balls.

Marshall’s slider had long been a problem, often flattening out and staying up in the zone to left-handed hitters. He has used the slider much less this season, with great results.

To make up the difference, Marshall has ratcheted up his fastball use and has found some velocity on that heat for the first time in his major league career. He now averages over 90 miles per hour on the fastball this year, after averaging scarcely 87 the season before.

That has helped him become such a strikeout force, and he has gotten misses on 10.3 percent of opponents’ swings this year after averaging narrowly more than eight percent whiffs in his career before this season.

If we accept—and it seems fair to do so—that Marshall will be the kind of pitcher he has been this season for the foreseeable future (meaning not that his numbers will always be this pretty, but that he now seems to have two plus pitches and enough command to use them to their full effect), it is time to ask an urgent question: Should the Cubs lock him up now?

In a word, yes.

Marshall will be eligible for arbitration in both 2011 and 2012, and if Chicago is unable to tie him up for the next two years this Winter, he could cost them serious money next year.

Right now, Marshall is not a closer, which immediately mitigates his arbitration value. To illustrate the point, compare Marshall to Dodgers southpaw hurler George Sherrill.

Like Marshall, Sherrill got less than $1 million in his first arbitration-eligible season.

After one year of full-time closing duty, however, Sherrill received $2.75 million, and that number shot up to $4.5 million the next year with Los Angeles.

If the Cubs can lock up Marshall for the next three seasons at $2.5 million per year, they will have successfully avoided the Sherrill pitfall.

Marshall still has good years ahead of him, especially as a left-handed pitcher. In a tandem with Carlos Marmol at the back of Chicago’s bullpen, Marshall could be a strong contributor for the long-term at Wrigley Field.

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