Kuzul

Baseball Hall of Fame Voters are a notoriously fickle group who are difficult to understand. They often find ways to overlook players who are seemingly statistical locks for the Hall, most notably in the case of poor Bert Blyleven, who has appeared on the ballot 13 times without getting the nod.

When the rumor that Chipper Jones’ season was over became a reality, his status as a sure-fire Hall of Famer came into question.

Jones, who announced this would be his last season in June, is 38 years-old and might never be healthy enough to play again.

Ironically, the same injury that ended his rookie season in 1994 could end his career.

Will Chipper Jones follow in the footsteps of Ron Santo or Eddie Mathews?

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ESPN and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution are reporting that Atlanta Braves third baseman Chipper Jones has torn the ACL in his left knee and that it is a potentially season-ending injury.

Being that the Philadelphia Phillies are only 2.5 games back, this injury could affect the division race as well as the Wild Card.

If the Phillies were to catch Atlanta, then the Braves would have to try and hold off the San Francisco Giants to even make the postseason.

Here are some of the potential ways this major injury to the future Hall-of-Famer might affect things the rest of the way.

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Despite being home to the all-time home run king, the Atlanta Braves have never been known for their ability to hit the ball out of the park. They are somewhat better known as the “Anti-Yankees,” if you will. They have country accents, less money, and very little power, but they have still found ways to to win.

However, the recent surge of power from the Atlanta Braves’ offense has proven that this team can hit the long ball just as well as the next squad and, with Atlanta’s dominating pitching staff, sometimes the Braves only need one or two of these home runs to win ball games. 

Braves hitters have combined for 11 homers in their last six games, while the pitching staff has limited opponents to one homer in that same span. All of a sudden, the Braves have found that power that they have been searching for the whole season.

Jason Heyward finally reminded us that he can hit the ball over the fence while veterans Chipper Jones and Brian McCann have finally returned to their true form. Alex Gonzalez has three home runs as an Atlanta Brave and 20 for the the whole season. Meanwhile, Troy Glaus is once again showing signs of life, and hitting-machine Martin Prado will be returning from the DL any day now.

Suddenly, the Braves are looking powerful.

The Braves will be an even harder team to beat if they can continue to successfully combine great pitching and explosive offense. This month of August is a crucial month. The Braves must keep on finding ways to win baseball games and separate themselves from Philadelphia. This will be no easy task, but if Atlanta can continue to hit the ball well and shut down opposing offenses, they will be virtually unstoppable.

The long ball is an aspect of the Braves game that has seemed to be lacking for many years. If the Braves batters can stay healthy, that ball will continue to fly out of the park and the Braves will continue to win series.

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“I don’t know which is more discouraging, [the Braves’ defense] or Chickens.”
—EB White

Okay.

Maybe I took some creative liberties with that EB White quote (he was really talking about literature).

And maybe that wasn’t as funny as I thought it would be when I googled “discouraging quotes.”

And maybe I am just too lazy to get rid of what is becoming an introduction full of incessant rambling.

But one thing that is definitely not a “maybe” is that the Atlanta Braves’ defense has entrenched itself in a deeper rut than their sometimes anemic offense has ever found itself in 2010.

With the boot-fest that was the opening game of a three-game set against the Astros, I decided to take the initiative to check out the box scores of the Braves’ month of August (nine games).

What I found wasn’t pretty.

In those games the Braves have committed no errors only twice and have seen the following totals from the other games: one, two, one, two, two, two, and three errors. Add that up, and it’s 13 errors in nine August contests.

Overall, the boys from Hotlanta are—in newspaper-box-score-style—(5-4) for the month. In games with no errors, they are (2-0)—I’m continuing this theme throughout for the sake of “prettiness.” With one error, they are (0-2). And with two or more, miraculously, the Braves are (3-2).

Now, that might indicate that the Braves are alright with this shoddy, at best, defense.

But, eventually, as with what happened in a 10-to-4 route at the hands of the Astros, the E’s are going to start catching up with the playoff-hopeful Braves.

Those one-run decisions are going to start swaying in favor of opponents more and more (for the record, the Braves are (16-17) in those types of games).

And these now-familiar comeback kids will have fewer and fewer opportunities to work their magic.

There’s no one individual to point at, either. Troy Glaus has made his share of blunders. Alex Gonzalez, despite quite a few spectacular efforts, has booted a grounder here and there. Brian McCann has thrown a ball or two away. And Chipper Jones has mishandled a few hops at the hot corner.

And the other four regulars on the field haven’t exactly been flawless, themselves.

Now, that’s not to say it’s time to leap off the Braves’ bandwagon just yet (even with the surging Phillies lurking).

After all, they have found a way to win a majority of these games—no matter how tiny that majority may be.

But some work has to be done with the leather if the Braves hope to win the “close ones” and surge at least somewhat comfortably into the postseason. 

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That Braves offense that led the charge to the top of the standings during a 20-win month of May has seemingly been relieved of command.

Going back to the All-Star break, the Braves are 7-9 since Brian McCann roped a bases-clearing double in the NL’s 3-1 win in the Mid-summer Classic.

News flash—the Braves only have won one series since then.

These are not the Braves that many Atlanta fans came to recognize during a two-month span that took them from last place to a 7.0 game lead in the NL East.

The offense was at one time atop the NL in runs scored. Now, the Braves sit seventh out of 16 teams. While holding the best team on-base percentage, they’re still only seventh in on-base plus slugging.

What this means: They’re still getting on base, but not with quality or timely at-bats.

Let’s just look at this most recent road trip.

The Braves’ three wins came one in each series. Jason Heyward had a big part in two of those wins, as he stole home against the Nationals, and doubled in the winning runs against the Reds on Friday.

Brooks Conrad delivered the big blow with a pinch-hit grand slam against the Marlins a week ago.

Brian McCann had two big games on the trip, and has generally been pretty consistent since the break. Matt Diaz’s bat has been somewhat inexplicably relegated to part-time duty.

Oh, Melky, Alex, Chipper, Troy, Eric. Care to give these guys a hand now that Prado’s out for a week or two???

Let’s go player by player and analyze (OBP/SLG/OPS) the peaks (and valleys) of the recent past.

Brian McCann

The All-Star has looked the part, as July was his best month of the season. He hit .321 for the month with five HRs and 20 RBI for a line that reads .409/.543/.952. His passed ball might have cost the Braves a win, but he was the only one to drive in runs that game for the Braves it seemed, so it’s hard to complain too much.

Troy Glaus

When Glaus hit a walk-off HR against Kansas City on June 19, he was hitting .280 with a .372/.496/.868 line, with 14 HR and 55 RBI. As of today, his averaged has dropped to .244 with a line that now reads .354/.410/.764 and upped his RBI total to 61.

Six weeks has produced six RBI. Yes, you read that right.

The month of July was “highlighted” with one multi-hit game, and an average of .182. His OPS line reads something that Tim Hudson would be embarrassed with:  .310/.234/.546.

He’s done nothing for six weeks, and somehow Bobby Cox still puts him in the four or five slot. It’s likely time to bench him, and call up Freddie Freeman.

Eric Hinske

Hinske’s July swoon hasn’t been as sharp as that of Troy Glaus. Three HRs and nine RBI in 52 at-bats doesn’t seem too bad, but he’s been inconsistent. After hitting above .300 in both April and July, Hinske’s average dipped to .260 in June and .212 in July. His .300/.442/.742 line for July means that he’s been clutch at times, cold at others.

Martin Prado

Fans all over Braves country cringed when they saw Prado slide home on Friday and immediately scream in pain as his right wrist got caught underneath him.

He’s come down after being well above .330 for most of the season. He powered six HRs during July, but for the month, only hit .257. When men were on base, he couldn’t come through for the big hit—if they were on base for him. Of his nine RBI in July, six of those times he drove in himself. Leadoff homeruns are great, but he can produce more RBI with some baserunners in front of him. His 22 RBI in May demonstrated that.

Omar Infante

Prado’s likely fill-in until the pinky is healed, Infante hit .429 during the month of July in 63 at-bats. His one HR and eight RBI during that span doesn’t jump out, but the .455/.492/.947 numbers probably should. The Braves need him to minimize the loss of Prado for a while, and maintain a hot bat in the middle infield to get the Braves on track.

Alex Gonzalez

Gonzo has been feeling under the weather the past few days, and that followed a five-game stretch where he didn’t get a hit. He hasn’t really been the run producer the Braves had hoped since coming over from Toronto. Perhaps that’s because no one’s on base for him to drive in. Nevertheless, the first 10 games after coming over—hitting .360 is something the Braves would love. Even .280 with some more clutch RBI the Atlanta fans and players would be thrilled with.

Chipper Jones

Chipper’s been consistent most of the season. Consistently not producing enough for a No. 3 hitter. His high RBI month is 15 (May), and he’s yet to hit more than two HRs in any month this season, or more than .270. Sorry, but a .329/.378/.708 line for the month of July for your “best” hitter is not going to cut it.

This is the one position the Braves don’t have an answer for. Based on his numbers, Jones should be hitting seventh in the lineup. Perhaps whatever retirement talk was going on earlier this season wasn’t exactly premature. I’m sure Jones, who’s as intelligent and studious a hitter as there ever will be, is not satisfied with what he’s been doing at the plate. I know Braves fans—like him or not—aren’t happy with the performance either.

Melky Cabrera

A lot of people stated the Braves didn’t get much for Javier Vazquez. Pretty sad when you consider the best part of the trade is a minor leaguer who might be dominant in the majors in a few years (Arodys Vizcaino).

July was Melky’s best month of the season. You might be laughing, but it was. Sort of.

Hitting .289 with a line of .353/.461/.813 is pretty respectable from a lower in the order guy. It was the first month this year the Melk Man had an OPS over .750

One HR and three RBI and looking slow in the outfield is not.

Matt Diaz

I have one request for Bobby Cox. Please put this man in the lineup just about every day?

Since Diaz came off the DL in late June, he’s arguably been the best run-producer for the Braves. In only 53 AB in July, Diaz smacked five HRs and knocked in 14 runs, while hitting .340.

Bobby, he’s healthy, and he can hit. Please let him do that. If you need any more information please look at the next line.

.364/.736/1.099.

Guys with a month-long OPS of over 1.000 should not be playing half the time.

Yes, he’s a lefty-killer, hitting .369 over the previous three seasons against lefties. But .265 with 10 HR and 59 RBI over the same period against righties isn’t that bad. If he played against all lefties and a good number of righties, he’d project to be a .300+ hitter and smack 15-20 HR.

OK. Enough said.

Jason Heyward

Heyward’s not in the right spot in the lineup. Since his return from the DL, he’s hit .356 with a line that reads .457/.458/.915. But he hasn’t homered since I saw him blast one off James Shields in mid-June and only has six RBI.

The first six weeks of the season, when Heyward was healthy, he was driving the ball all over the place and driving in runs. He and McCann are the most dangerous hitters in the Braves lineup right now. Diaz has been more productive, but still isn’t quite in the category of Heyward and McCann.

So with the recent addition of Rick Ankiel (who could be good, and could be so-so), here’s how I would make out the Braves lineup (once Prado returns)

Against Lefties

• 2B – Prado
• 3B – Jones
• RF – Heyward
• LF – Diaz
• C – McCann
• SS – Gonzalez
• 1B – Glaus
• CF – Cabrera/Infante

Against Righties

• 2B – Prado
• 3B – Jones
• RF – Heyward
• C – McCann
• LF – Diaz
• CF – Ankiel
• SS – Gonzalez
• 1B – Glaus (or Freeman?)

Looking ahead a bit. There are two potential moves the Braves should make later this season or in the offseason to balance their lineup.

If Troy Glaus’ slump continues, perhaps calling up Freddie Freeman, or trading (again) for Adam LaRoche if the Diamondbacks wouldn’t want too much in return, might be necessary. Glaus has become a major hole in that lineup.

Right now, the Braves’ lineup is a bit left-heavy. They’re looking for a power bat, a right-handed one who would play the outfield, center if possible.

The free-agent market this year expects to include Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth. I can completely understand why the Braves couldn’t or wouldn’t get him in a trade (the Phillies aren’t going to trade a bat like that against their main competitor in the same division). However, next year, the Phillies seem to think that Domonic Brown will be manning right field, with Ibanez again in left and Victorino in center.

The Braves would be wise to give serious consideration to bringing in Werth to play between Diaz and Heyward and hit right before or after Brian McCann in the lineup.

Unless the Braves snap out of their offensive funk, the 2010 season may be over sooner than expected.

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The Jay-Hey Kid came through again tonight.  Jason Heyward, a favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year, hit a double, moved to third on a Chipper Jones sac fly, and stole home on the next pitch.  He’s stealing more than bases these days, however.  He is stealing the thunder right out of the Phillies and Mets.

It couldn’t come at a better time.

The Braves, atop the NL East and poised to take their first divisional crown since 2002, are cruising with the help of Heyward, 2010 All-Star Game MVP Brian McCann, Troy Glaus, Martin Prado, Matt Diaz, and the crew.  The Braves possess the depth and talent likened to many of the pennant winners in the 1990s.

With a rotation that features Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and a surprise in Kris Medlen, the pitching is as solid as the days of Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz-Mercker-Avery.  The bullpen is good, too, with guys like Peter Moylan, Eric O’Flaherty, Johnny Venters, and, of course, the venerable Billy Wagner.

Many of those names made impacts tonight.

Tim Hudson pitched 7 2/3 innings of one run, seven hit baseball, striking out seven in the process and walking just one.  Out of 96 pitches, 63 were strikes, including 18 first-pitch strikes.  Venters struck out Adam Dunn to end the eighth.  Wagner, as is often the case, pitched a perfect ninth to pick up his 23rd save on the year.

Prado continued to flourish in his leadoff role, going 3-5 with a double and two runs scored.  Chipper was 1-4 with 2 RBI.  Brian McCann also stole a base, his fourth of the year. 

The Braves improved their record to 58-42, 16 games above .500 and 3.5 games ahead of Philadelphia.  Philadelphia has been hot of late, riding a seven-game win streak.  Atlanta is fighting to stay atop the NL East, and they are getting contributions from everyone.

This Atlanta team is going to be seeing October for the first time in nearly 10 years, and I couldn’t be happier.

NOTES

• Stephen Strasburg was scratched from what was to be his 10th ML start with shoulder soreness.  He isn’t expected to miss any time and should make his next start.

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The Texas Rangers trade for ace left-hander Cliff Lee is expected to make the Rangers a team to fear this 2010 postseason.

Yes, the Rangers will win the AL West, even with the Los Angeles Angels obtaining Dan Haren in a recent trade.

In that trade for Lee, the Seattle Mariners received major league first baseman Justin Smoak and three highly-rated minor leaguers including durable 21-year-old, Double A right-handed starting pitcher Blake Beavan.  

There is one major difference in each teams trade for another ace pitcher: the Rangers are going to lose Lee to free agency while the Angels are able to keep Haren for another tow (or three) seasons.

And that poses a unique question. Should teams trade their wanted stars in the final years of their contracts or keep them and obtain draft picks?

Most of the times yes, and there are many reasons why.

With draft picks, teams do not yet know how recently drafted players will adjust to the wooden bats as hitters, or how pitchers will fact an entire lineup of solid hitters.

For example, Billy Rowell was a “can’t miss” left-handed high school power hitter from New Jersey. After being selected ninth overall by the Baltimore Orioles in 2006, it is safe to say Rowell “can miss,” and it is usually the breaking pitches thrown his way.

Rowell is in his THIRD full season of High A ball, and will strike out about 150 times this year. The Orioles swung and missed, too, as Tim Lincecum was the next selection in that draft by the San Francisco Giants.

Think the O’s would make that trade straight up now? They might even throw in their first round pick in 2009 for another shot at Mike Leake, drafted four picks later.

I broke down the drafts of 2002-2005 into three sections: Top 10 picks, picks from 11-20 and picks from 21-30.

Of the 50 selections in that (Denard) time Span, there were 39 players who made the majors thus far from being selected in the top 10 of those seasons. In the 11-20 group, 309 players also have made it to the major leagues. The bottom third (21-30) contributed only 29 major leaguers thus far.

I also counted those players who were “impact” guys. Those players who I felt were bona fide stars, or were productive major league starters. The top 10’s produced 19 impact players, the second group of ten selections produced 14 impact guys, while the final ten selections in each round produced 11 impact guys.

The further down the ladder in selections within the first round, the less likely a team will draft someone who will make and impact on their major league roster.

The draft is a crap shoot, and puts even more emphasis on the amateur scouts which roam the countryside.

Lets “for example” a situation where the Mariners kept Lee. Maybe Jack Z thinks this 2011 draft is very deep and wants the draft picks. So the season ends and Lee files for free agency.

As is probable, the Yankees then sign Lee to a multi-year contract and the Mariners get the draft picks. What kind of player will they get? Well, the Yankees are definitely making the playoffs, and have a good chance to get to (and win) the World Series.

The Mariners would then have the Yankees first round pick near the end of the round plus one of the last supplemental picks. Picks 28-30 do not produce as major leaguers as Top 10 picks produce.

It is easier to produce major league stars when you pick in the upper levels of the draft. Just ask Jack Z. He had two top ten picks as draft guru for the Milwaukee Brewers and he picked Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Much easier when you have so many better players amongst to choose.

For example, when Braun was selected fifth overall in 2005, the Brewers still could have skipped him and taken Troy Tulowitzki two picks later. Or the Brew Crew could have selected Andrew McCutchen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza or Colby Rasmus and received good value, too.

Another factor in determining whether to keep of trade your potential free agent is to analyze where his potential free agent might land. It rarely happens, but if a top 15 draft position team signs your free agent, you do not get their first round pick. They are immune to the compensation rules, and they relinquish their second round pick instead.

Another indication of not getting value for the draft picks is when a team signs two Type A free agents. The higher ranked free agent’s former team gets the first round pick and the lower ranked Type A free agent gets the signing teams second round selection.

This happened in the 2009 draft after the New York Yankees signed Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. All three were Type A free agents but Burnett was ranked third behind highest ranked Type A Teixeira and second ranked Type A Sabathia.

The Angels received the Yankees first round selection (No. 25 overall), the Brewers received the Yankees second round selection (No. 73 overall) and the Blue Jays received the Yankees third round pick (No. 104 overall).

Combined with the supplemental pick, that 104th selection in any draft is not adequate compensation for losing that type A free agent. Especially when you could have traded him for a package of prospects you already know how they can play.

When a team has a highly rated player coveted by many teams willing to pay up for his services, the best action to take is trade, trade, trade .

Get as many players as you can, but key in on impact players . When in doubt, quality is much better than quantity.  

The Mariners did just that and reaped a huge gain from the Rangers, better than they could have hoped for from the two draft picks as compensation.

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Matt Diaz deserves to be the every day starting left fielder for the Atlanta Braves.  His batting skills have earned it for him.  If he plays everyday in left, the Braves have a better chance to win the NL East. 

The Braves haven’t had a regular left fielder since the days of Ryan Klesko.  That’s so long ago Jason Heyward was in the second grade. Being a left fielder in Atlanta is about as safe as being the defense against the dark arts teacher at Hogwarts. No player has held down the starting position in left for 13 seasons. 

The one-and-done fill-ins have included the immortal likes of Garrett Anderson, Gregor Blanco, Ryan Langerhans, Kelly Johnson, Charles Thomas, B.J. Surhoff, Reggie Sanders, and Gerald Williams.  The only pseudo-stability occurred when they put a third baseman, Chipper Jones, in left from 2002-2003.  This was a complete disater, not only because of Chipper’s fielding but because Vinny Castilla provided nothing in his stead at third base.

Matt Diaz had the job for a spell in 2007, but injury prevented him form securing it again in 2008.  He deserves a second chance. 

The Braves acquired Diaz from the Royals in December 2005. Up to that point, Diaz had only played in 58 career games.  No one really knew what he could do.  Bobby Cox gave him a chance as a platoon player in the outfield.  Since then Diaz has done nothing but hit. 

In 470 games as a Brave, Diaz has produced a .314/.361/.466 batting line.  This includes two seasons in which he was injured and his production severely decreased.

In his three full seasons, Diaz produced an OPS+ of 114, 123 and 133 (OPS+ is a measure of how far above the league average OPS—set at 100—a player is). 

Diaz is clearly an improving, above average hitter.  He is certainly better than the Braves’ other left field prospects at this time, Melky Cabrera (.259/.319/.355) and Nate McLouth (.169/.282/.268).  Putting these two players in the lineup is not much better than having another pitcher hitting in the eighth spot. 

Since returning form the disabled listed on June 29th, Diaz has hit .378 with an OPS of 1.182.  He hit home runs in three straight games and has a hit in every game he’s started since returning. 

One knock against Diaz has been his fielding.  But Diaz has actually shown improvement in his fielding for four straight years. 

Baseball-Reference uses a formula to calculate the number of runs a player is better or worse than an average fielder.  Diaz’s last four years (staring in 2007) are -5, -2, 0 and 2.  The evidence suggests Diaz has worked diligently to improve his defense.

Bobby Cox uses Diaz in a platoon split, only allowing him to start against left-handed pitchers.  But in 2007, when Diaz got to play more in left because of injuries, he hit .318 against righties.  Diaz simply hasn’t had enough of a chance to establish himself against right-handers.  If given a chance to face them and adapt, he may well increase his batting prowess against right-handed pitching.

The same thing happened to Ryan Klesko in Atlanta.  He platooned and never started against lefties.  Then he was traded to San Diego, started everyday, hit just fine against lefties, and became an All-Star.

Allowing Matt Diaz to start everyday in left field gives the Braves the best chance to win.  He is much better than the current versions of Cabrera and McLouth.  Over his five seasons in Atlanta he has proven himself to be an accomplished hitter and an improving fielder.  He has earned the opportunity to provide Atlanta with some stability in left field.

I appreciate all feeback in the comments section or on “The Twitter” at twitter.com/ryanvooris.

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The Atlanta Braves are having a championship caliber season and looking for their first World Series title since 1995. This slideshow will compare the current Atlanta Braves to the 1995 team to see if today’s team is the best Braves team that the world has ever seen.

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With five All-Stars and 50-plus wins before the break, the Atlanta Braves look very strong going into the second half of the 2010 season.

They’ve combined their stellar pitching staff with timely hitting (16 wins in their last at-bat before the All-Star Break) and have steered clear of the Phillies and Mets to jump out to a 4-game lead in the NL East.

The Braves have certainly given Bobby Cox a season to remember in his last campaign, but let’s take a quick look on where the team is headed to try to predict if its second half can match up to their first.

First we’ll start with a positional breakdown on this Braves’ squad.

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