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Despite news that Billy Hamilton—otherwise known as the second coming of Billy Hamilton—is invited to the Reds‘ Spring Training activities in Goodyear, there is even less chance that he will make the major league club in April than there was when this offseason began. More than anything, Hamilton’s first Spring Training with Cincinnati will serve as his preliminary introduction to major league-caliber pitching, a huge jump in competition for a player who played at the AA level for the first time in the latter part of 2012.

After lighting up the base paths of the California and Southern Leagues, Hamilton shot to the top of the list of trendy prospects for the 2013 season. Expectations for an imminent Trout-esque debut should be heavily tempered. The 22-year-old had a pretty smooth transition from high-A to AA, but he still has plenty of adjustments to make. His numbers at Pensacola are too small of a sample size—especially for his first promotion to that level—but the Reds hope his bat can keep up with his legs as he ascends. 

Considering Billy Hamilton didn’t set the world on fire in the Arizona Fall League and this being his first season transitioning to center field, he is still far from major league-ready. Obviously power isn’t expected from him, but for him to succeed further Hamilton must cultivate an ability to lash liners to the power alleys to give him a chance to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples (or inside-the-park homers). 

Additionally, the Reds already have a great deal of depth for the major league squad. Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce, Ryan Ludwick, and Chris Heisey are locked in as the first four outfielders with Xavier Paul and Denis Phipps probably having the inside track to land the last outfield slot. It would be counterproductive to have Hamilton on the big club and play him as infrequently as a fifth outfielder usually is. 

Consistent play is a big factor in Hamilton’s development this year. The most beneficial thing for him is a full year starting for Louisville with a sneak preview for the Reds in September if the division is wrapped up or the worst-case scenario has become reality in Cincinnati. All this being said, fans should still be very excited about Hamilton’s arrival, just not in a large role this year. Patience is a virtue, especially with regards to baseball prospects and even more so for ones undertaking a position change. 

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The Cincinnati Reds have made strides this offseason to ensure their chances for yet another NL Central title. Though those strides may have filled some holes, such as that at leadoff, some of them have also weakened the team in other areas.

These may not be considered major deficiencies in the Reds’ lineup, but they will still create challenges that the team must overcome during the 2013 season.

Let’s take a look at some of these newly developed “weaknesses” as well as some that may hang around from the 2012 season.

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The recent signing of Jonathan Broxton seems to have shed some light on the Reds‘ intentions for the 2013 season. Not only does it look as though Broxton will be taking over the closer’s role, but all signs point to Aroldis Chapman joining the starting rotation.

With Chapman assuming a new role outside of the bullpen, Cincinnati is left with a gaping hole in its relief corps. It’s a hole that the Reds must fill before next season.

So why should the Reds trade for a reliever rather than sign one from the field of free agents?

Simple. Why overpay when you have the assets to acquire the help you need via trade. The best free-agent reliever still available is Rafael Soriano, who already opted out of a huge payday with the Yankees in order to test the market.

Kyuji Fujikawa will be testing the U.S. market after a long career in Japan. The 32-year-old has potential. But, can that potential and his 1.32 ERA (for the Hanshin Tigers in 2012) translate to Major League Baseball?

Then there is Joakim Soria. He is another free agent that is closer material. But, the fact that he sat out all of 2012 injured could hamper his ability to gain a closer role. He may have to settle for a setup role. Soria will probably request a similar contract to that which Ryan Madson just signed. With the signing of Broxton to such a large deal, the Reds can’t afford that large of a risk with no guarantees.

The point I am making here is that free-agent help is not going to be cost effective to fill this need. So why not look to trade? They have the bodies to do so.

Who would be potential trade candidates that could bring solid relief help in return? 

Lets start with Mike Leake. He is going to be the odd-man out. If the Reds believe that Tony Cingrani is the real deal then he becomes Bronson Arroyo’s replacement once his contract is up. Cingrani also becomes your sixth starter in 2013.

Leake actually holds some very good value. Don’t forget about his 2011 performance (12-9 with 3.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP), the fact that he is only 25 years old and is a former first-round draft pick.

Everybody’s favorite man, Drew Stubbs, will most likely find himself on the trade block this offseason. Will it be for outfield help or for relief help? Look at it this way. Stubbs is only going to bring you someone of equal value in the outfield unless you pair him with significant other talent. But, his “potential” talent could net you a top-of-the-line reliever.

Chris Heisey. Yes, I said it. Many readers will balk at the thought, but the truth is that Heisey and Stubbs are very similar. Don’t believe me? Check out the stats.

Bet you didn’t know that Drew Stubbs’ -0.2 WAR in 2012 was actually better than Chris Heisey, who produced a -0.3 WAR. Both maintain the same 0.25 BB/K ratio. It’s time to move on, and someone will throw in a pretty good reliever for Heisey and a minor leaguer.

So I guess you’re probably asking who the Reds should go after in a trade? Well, lets leave that up to Walt Jocketty (or the fans to speculate). 

I would recommend some potential trading partners, though. There are teams out there that could benefit from players like Leake, Subbs and Heisey. The Oakland A’s (Ryan Cook and/or Grant Balfour) come to mind, as do the Kansas City Royals (Tim Collins and/or Greg Holland). Both teams are full of young and talented relievers and could be a great swap for Mike Leake and/or an outfielder that can cover a lot of ground.

What about Seattle or even Cleveland? Those two teams are a little thin in the outfield. 

The teams with needs are there. Now it’s up to the scouts and brain trust to find the talent on those teams that can benefit the Reds.

You can follow Josh Ramsey on Twitter @JRamCincy

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The Cincinnati Reds are full of youth and homegrown talent. Many may forget that budding stars Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey are but 25 and 26 years old (respectively), though it seems as though they have been around since the turn of the century.

Then there is Johnny Cueto—yep, he is only 26. Aroldis Chapman is only 24 years old. Mat Latos is but 24 as well. We also shouldn’t forget MVP Joey Votto. He may not be as young as the others, but as you will see, he is still progressing with age.

Not only do the Cincinnati Reds have talent, but if development trends continue, they may be overflowing with flat-out scary talent in the next couple of years.

Lets take a look at these trends, starting with Jay Bruce.

The 25-year-old Bruce just completed his fifth year in the big leagues (2008-12). Throughout this time his home-run totals have increased each year: 21, 22, 25, 32 and 34 respectively. His RBI totals, well, they have followed suit: 52, 58, 70, 97 and 99. Total extra-base hits: 39, 39, 53, 61 and 74. There are stats that have not followed the same trend, though, such as his BA: .254, .223, .281, .256 and .252. With more consistency (which, believe it or not, Bruce showed this year), he could surprise us all in the near future.

So what’s the conclusion on Bruce? If trends continue, Jay Bruce is actually due for a breakout year—and a breakout year on top of what he has already posted could be absolutely monstrous.

Next, we visit the trends of one of the most frustrating prospects in Reds history—Homer Bailey.

The 26-year-old Bailey has been strutting his stuff around GABP since 2007. Take a look at these ERA/WHIP splits since then:

5.46/1.57, 7.93/2.09, 4.53/1.47, 4.46/1.37, 4.43/1.28 and 3.68/1.24—impressive.

Homer Bailey’s trends have lead him to become Cincinnati’s key breakout player in 2013. As you will see, Johnny Cueto had similar trends before break(ing) on though to the other side (as Jim Morrison would have said).

Bailey closed out the year with the ace stuff that we all expected of him six years ago. He threw 55.2 innings through September and October (including the postseason). During that time he gave up only 28 hits and 10 walks while striking out 58 and giving up only 11 runs. That equates to a 1.78 ERA folks. Look for this ace-like material to continue in 2013.

Mr. Johnny Cueto is 26 years old himself. In five years his ERA/WHIP combos look like this:

4.81/1.41, 4.41/1.36, 3.64/1.28, 2.31/1.09, 2.78/1.17—can you say bona fide ace?

Though his ERA and WHIP totals increased slightly from 2011 to 2012, what was very impressive was how his K/9 improved from 6.00 to 7.05 and his K/BB ratio went from 2.21 to 3.47. Plus, you can’t expect a 2.31 ERA every year out of anyone.

So should you expect improvements from Johnny Cueto next season? Yes, expect more innings, an improved WHIP and more strikeouts—this is where Cueto is now trending.

Oh, Aroldis Chapman. To start or not to start, this is the question. Let’s clear that up now—he will start. Chapman made obvious strides in 2012 when he posted a 1.51 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP. His 15.32 K/9 is simply off the wall. But, what many forget is that Chapman posted a 2.12 ERA in four spring starts with a WHIP of 1.12.

He can do it folks, and he will. Chapman mastered his one major flaw in 2012—locating the strike zone. That is one improvement that can not go understated.

This brings us to the other two players that I first mentioned, Mat Latos and Joey Votto. On the surface, these two may not seem to have improved.

After all, Latos‘ ERA has gone from 2.92, to 3.47, to 3.48 the last three seasons. But, let’s not forget that Latos went from playing in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in Petco Park to playing in the GABP, one of the most hitter-friendly parks. Maintaining his numbers during such a drastic change should not go understated. 

Last but not least, we have Joey Votto. Folks, he led the league with a .474 OBP. Aside from admitted and convicted PED users Jason Giambi and Barry Bonds, only Edgar Martinez (.479 OBP in 1995) and Wade Boggs (.476 OBP in 1988) have recorded higher on-base percentages since Norm Cash cashed in with a .487 OBP in 1961. 

Votto may have only produced 14 home runs in 2012, but much of that was due to his knee injury. Despite playing in 50 fewer games than in 2011, he produced a career high in doubles with 44 and a 5.6 WAR compared to a 6.2 WAR in 2011. He also set career highs with a .337 BA, that .474 OBP and 1.041 OPS.

To keep a long story short, the young talent that fills Cincinnati’s roster is impressive already, but the trends and signs should lead us to believe that the best is still yet to be seen.

What are your thoughts? Be sure to chime in with them and leave your comments below.

You can follow Josh Ramsey on Twitter: @JRamCincy

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The title of this article says it all—Could David Wright pack his bags and take over third base for the Cincinnati Reds? Well, it just may be possible. 

Assuming that the New York Mets are unable to re-sign (or just decide not to re-sign) David Wright, a trade could be in the foreseeable future. A recent article by Mark Simon on ESPN.com suggests that the Cincinnati Reds could be one of five possible suitors for Wright if such a circumstance arises. 

Not only does the article suggest a possible trade, but it also suggests that Cincy may have the means to sign Wright to an extended contract. If you still don’t believe the Cincinnati Reds are suddenly into the money, you need to think again.

Cincinnati committed $250 million to Joey Votto and also gave Brandon Phillips (aka @DatDudeBP) a six-year, $72.5 million contract before the start of the 2012 season. Not only are the Reds convinced they have the ability to spend, but it seems as though the national media is beginning to believe as well—Mr. Simon’s article states just as much.

The Reds reworked their radio deal in recent years and are due to receive a lucrative new TV deal in the very near future. The Reds maintained the top radio listener-ship and were in the top two in TV ratings among all MLB teams in 2012—both equal money.

But back to David Wright.

Where does he fit, you ask? Well, at third base of course. What does that mean for Todd Frazier? Left field, my friends. He has proven that he is much more than a body in the field. He played very well at first base, third base, and yes, left field in 2012.

David Wright is a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman. He is also a .301 career hitter—he hit .306 with 21 home runs and 93 RBI in 2012. Wright did all of this in a pitcher’s ball park. Just imagine what he could do at GABP.

Simon’s article suggests using Mike Leake and/or Drew Stubbs in such a trade. I am sure that this appeals to many. It also suggests that the Reds may need to use catching prospect Devin Mesoraco—a much more realistic option.

Just think for a minute, though, a lineup that consists of Joey Votto, David Wright and Jay Bruce? Now that is appealing. Very appealing.

You can follow Josh Ramsey on Twitter @JRamCincy

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The 2012 Major League Baseball season came, and has now gone. Gone with it is another disappointing Cincinnati Reds postseason appearance. But remember Reds fans, dwelling on the past is what losers do. Winners move forward.

Though it may not yet feel like it yet, the 2013 season looks very bright for the Cincinnati Reds. Why is that you may ask? Let’s review a few key facts about the season past.

The Cincinnati Reds had the second best record in baseball this season. They finished 2012 with a 97-65 record.

It takes a culmination of things going right for any team to win 97 games. It flat out takes talent to win 97 games despite a few major things going very wrong wrong. In order to find out what went right, let’s take look at what went wrong.

The leadoff position was well, horrid to say the least. Reds leadoff hitters compiled a measly .208 BA with an even more palatable .254 OBP. But, in spite of coming in last (by a long shot) with these two stats, the Reds still managed to finish at least 21 of 30 in runs scored. Maybe not impressive, but more than adequate given those numbers, wouldn’t you say? When your table setters aren’t setting the table you can only do so much.

Let’s also not forget that Cincinnati lost Joey Votto in the midst of an MVP campaign. Yet they still scored enough (key word here is “enough”) runs to manage an even better record without Votto in the lineup. They went 38-16 in his absence vs. 59-49 with him in the lineup.

So what are we getting at here? Simple, espite major offensive handicaps, the Cincinnati Reds were one run and three outs away from a sweep of the eventual Word Series Champions and a chance to take their place in the NLCS.

How did the Reds manage to win with such handicaps? Pitching and defense, that’s how.

Returning to the team, intact, will be a defense that has produced six Gold Glove finalists (Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Zack Cozart, Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce, and Bronson Arroyo) along with a pitching staff that allowed the fewest runs in the NL while producing the seond-best team ERA at 3.34.

I must remind you, Reds pitchers did this while pitching in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Let’s tie what we have so far, all of this together. It’s like a domino-effect. The Reds play brilliant defense. That brilliant defense backs up a pitching staff that is above average and who often pitches to contact. Such pitching staffs thrive off of strong defense.

It is this combination that allows for some inadequacies in the Cincinnati offense. When your team is allowing opponents to score the fewest runs in the league, being 21st of 30 teams in offensive runs scored isn’t quite as bad as it could be otherwise.

All six of the Gold Glove finalists are due to return in 2013. Todd Frazier, who arguably played as good a third-base as Scott Rolen did, will be taking over at third. The only true unknown is in left field. Let’s just say that the club seems to have learned their lesson with Adam Dunn and the Yonder Alonso experiments. Defense does matter.

What about the pitching staff in 2013? The Reds will return Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, a strong and formidable one-two punch, to the top of their rotation. 2013 will be the year that Homer Bailey doubters disappear. Look for Homer to take over the third spot in the rotation.

The reenergized Bronson Arroyo will hold down the fourth spot while Mike Leake and newcomer Tony Cingrani will battle it out for the fifth rotation spot.

All of this leaves Aroldis Chapman to anchor the best bullpen in all of baseball.

So, let’s review again, what all we have covered means? It means, that for the first time in a long time, the Cincinnati Reds really have only one need – help at the top of their batting lineup.

They can fill this need with a slick hitting left fielder, or center fielder, or both. The Cincinnati Reds are that close to becoming the best team in baseball.

The best thing for Cincinnati Reds fans is that they have a GM and an owner that understand this need and will fix it. Folks, Bob Castellini has already put his money where his mouth is. He did that after getting a taste of championship baseball that was foiled by standing pat in 2011.

In 2012 he invested heavily, then was given a glass of fine whiskey that was yanked from him just after he had taken a few sips. Do you think he is going to let 2011 repeat itself? I think not.

The 2013 season looks bright my friends and it will only get brighter as pitchers and catchers prepare to report. Do not dwell fellow fans, do not dwell.

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The San Francisco Giants walk into the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati today facing an 0-2 deficit in their best-of-five series with the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker, who spent 14 years with the Giants, acknowledges that a 2-0 lead isn’t everything, saying:

“[Leading] 2-0 doesn’t mean anything unless you’re up 3-0, which is what counts in this series.” 

Historially, the odds of winning the series are stacked against the Giants. Only four of 42 teams have ever overcome an 0-2 deficit to win a five-game series. That is a success rate of only 9.5 percent. Add to this the fact that the remainder of the series is on the road, and suddenly hope may become bleak.

While the chances of winning the series may be steep, the Giants can start by saving face with a win tonight behind the arm of Ryan Vogelsong.

Ryan comes into the game tonight with a 3.87 ERA this season. Even though his ERA has been a paltry 5.11 since the All-Star break, he still managed half of his 14 wins during that stretch. 

Vogelsong has been noted by MLB writer Chris Haft for running “deep counts out of his abhorrence for throwing pitches that a hitter might find remotely enticing.” This may prove to be a useful quality against a team that has racked up 14 total runs in two games.

Beyond pitching, the Giants will need run support.

Look for timely contributions from leadoff man Angel Pagan and near the bottom of the order from first baseman Brandon Belt. Both have had success against Reds pitcher Homer Bailey.

While only a small sample size, Pagan has a .429 batting average against Bailey, striking for three hits in seven at-bats. Belt has been successful to the tune of a .667 average, hitting twice in three tries.

If the Giants can get contributions from their big bats—Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval—in addition to timely hits from Pagan and Belt, they could give Vogelsong the help he needs to keep the series alive.

With Barry Zito on deck to pitch Game 4, if needed, expect the Giants to step up their production at the plate tonight.

If you follow @MLBJesus, you may be looking forward to a magical performance tonight.

The Sword of Vogelsong shall deliver thy Franciscans to Victory on Tuesday.

— MLB Jesus (@MLBJesus) October 8, 2012

——UPDATE——

San Francisco wins 2-1 in the 10th inning.

While Brandon Belt did nothing offensively to assist in the victory, Angel Pagan contributed the RBI that gave the Giants one run in the third inning. Without that, the game doesn’t go to extra innings and San Francisco goes home for the offseason.

Ryan Vogelsong had a solid outing, pitching 5 innings and allowing only one run for a 1.80 ERA.

Buster Posey was big in the 10th, getting on base with a hit and scoring the winning run on a ground ball error by Reds third baseman Scott Rolen.

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The Cincinnati Reds bring their 97-65 regular season record and the No. 2 seed in the NLDS to the bay shores of San Francisco. It is here that they begin a five-game series against Buster Posey and the Giants. With two teams that are so evenly matched battling it out, every last advantage or disadvantage could mean the difference between a win or a loss.

It’s in this type of environment that questions are bound to arise. So let’s look at five key questions surrounding the Cincinnati Reds and their success during this upcoming showdown.

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Holy moly, the Cincinnati Reds‘ Homer Bailey tossed a no-hitter Friday night against the Pittsburgh Pirates. You read that right folks. Mr. No-No Bailey’s no-hitter is proof that you NEVER give up on a top arm too early.

Homer Bailey began his professional career as the seventh-overall pick in the 2004 MLB draft. The young phenom would progress quickly and be named Cincinnati’s top overall prospect by Baseball America andBaseball Prospectus prior to the 2007 season. Baseball America billed him as “the next great Texas fireballer in the tradition of Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens,” while also naming him as one of Major League Baseball’s top five prospects.

But my oh my how one can fall from glory at lightning speeds.

Homer Bailey’s second professional season of 2006 saw him post a 2.47 ERA with 156 K’s in 138.2 innings pitched at Single-A and Double-A. Fans and media alike, clamored for the then 20 year old kid to make his debut.

As the start of the 2007 approached and Baseball America, scouts and fans where all singing their praise of the young right-hander. Little did they know that the next six years would be a roller coaster ride full of ups, downs, trade declarations and disappointments. 

As the 2007 season approached fans and media alike clamored for his Major League debut. But when Homer Bailey finally hit the scene, he did so with a thud that would have knocked King Kong on his backside. He would post a 5.76 ERA in nine starts during the ’07 campaign and follow that up with a 7.93 ERA in eights starts during the ’08 season. These not-so Ryan and Clemens like stats brought out the pessimistic personalities of many.

Bailey would continue to show slight progression for the next three seasons. He posted ERA’s of 4.53, 4.47, and 4.43 from 2009 to 2011. He would even improve his WHIP by nearly 10 points in each successive season. But the hype and buzz that he had created as a young prospect had long dissipated—the fans had grown impatient, the media had grown impatient, and it even seemed as though the Cincinnati Reds had grown impatient.

Rumors surfaced on Fox Sports in 2011 when Ken Rosenthal reported that Bailey was being shopped for Ubaldo Jimenez. Before the 2012 season began, Reds beat writer John Fay speculated that Bailey could be moved in order to make room for a possible Roy Oswalt signing. Let’s also not forget that Homer Bailey was not even guaranteed a spot in the Reds’ starting rotation this year. He, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman, Brett Tomko and Jeff Francis were all battling it out for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation.

But in the end the Reds stuck with him and it has paid off in 2012. Bailey has been amazingly consistent this year. He ranks second on the club with 21 quality starts. Johnny Cueto leads the pack with 22 and ace-in-the-making Mat Latos ranks behind Bailey with 18.

We should also not forget that Homer Bailey is but 26 years old. It can sometimes be easy to get frustrated and give up on top arms that do not develop quickly. You need look no further than the top of the NL ERA leader board at examples of arms that were thrown to the curb only to pay dividends to the next team waiting in line.

R.A. Dickey didn’t hit his stride until the age of 34. The Rangers, Mariners, and Twins had all given up on him. Now at 36 he owns a 20-6 record with a 2.69 ERA for the New York Mets. Kyle Lohse would spend seven years frustrating the Twins, Reds, and Phillies. Then at 29 years old, the Cardinals took a shot on him in 2008. Lohse has not looked back since. He owns a 16-3 record with a 2.77 ERA this season.

Homer Bailey is having his breakout season. He owns a 13-10 record with a 3.75 ERA as well as that always elusive no-hitter. Bailey dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday night. On September 28 of 2012, Homer Bailey lived up to the hype—he was Nolan Ryan-like—he was Roger Clemens-like.

The patience of the Cincinnati Reds paved the way for Bailey to produce one of only 15 no-hitters in team history—the first since Tom Browning’s perfect game in 1988.

Homer Bailey’s no-hitter is proof to NEVER give up on a top arm too early. This career defining moment may just be the spark that sets off career full of highlights. Bailey’s next stop—playoff dominance? We will see.

You can follow Josh Ramsey on Twitter @JRamCincy

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The Cincinnati Reds have clinched the NL Central and are now battling it out for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs—who would have thought this is where they would find themselves after losing Joey Votto for most of the second half of the season? Not many, I can assure you.

Now October draws near, and it’s time to begin thinking about October play. With so many possibilities still ahead, let’s take a look at the potential playoff opponents Cincinnati could find themselves facing. While we are at it, let’s also check out how the Reds match up against each possible opponent. 

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