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Through the first six seasons of Clay Buchholz‘s major league career, he profiled as a good pitcher. His career ERA of 3.92 was 13 percent above league average, he struck out nearly two batters for every one he walked and surrendered less than one hit per inning.

If he could stay healthy—no easy task considering his injury history—Boston could look forward to a 28-year-old pitcher coming into his physical prime giving its rotation quality innings through at least 2015, and possibly even longer if contract options were exercised for 2016 and 2017.

Few outside of Buchholz‘s immediate family and closest friends could have imagined what’s happened early on in 2013. The former first-round pick has gone from good to great, on the verge of becoming baseball’s next great superstar ace.

Of course, the early success comes with skepticism and controversy.

While it’s impossible to know for sure if Buchholz is or was doctoring the baseball, this much is clear: His game has changed for the better.

In baseball, small sample sizes can yield inordinate results. For example, take last year’s April sensation for the Cubs, Bryan LaHair. Remember that guy? He hit .390 in April, banged out five home runs and became the coolest fantasy baseball pickup out there.

Today he’s the starting first baseman for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of the Japan Pacific League.

Regardless of whether you believe in Buchholz‘s ascension to ace status, he’s not heading to Japan anytime soon. Instead, he’ll be a hot topic all season as he attempts to sustain a blazing start and lead the Red Sox into contention.

When assessing his early season performance (7 GS, 50.2 IP, 56 K, 18 BB, 1.60 ERA, 2.13 FIP), it’s important to weed out what is sustainable from what isn’t. In other words, the changes in Buchholz‘s game that can help him over a long period of time.

First, let’s rule out what can’t be sustained: LOB (left on base) percentage and HR/FB percentage.

Simply put, Buchholz is stranding baserunners at a mind-boggling rate of 85 percent. On average, pitchers will leave 70-72 percent of baserunners stranded without letting them reach the plate. If Buchholz keeps putting the same amount of men on through hits or walks, eventually more will score.

Through his first seven starts this season, only 2.6 percent of fly balls given up have sailed over the wall for home runs. On average, about 10 percent of fly balls will become home runs. With a ground-ball percentage that is down from his norm, the evening out of Buchholz‘s HR/FB rate will result in more runs.

Now that those are out of the way, here are three reasons why Buchholz actually does look like an ace in Boston: 

1. He’s becoming a strikeout machine

Through the first 636.1 IP of Buchholz‘s career, he struck out 6.7 batters per nine innings through his age-27 season. As far as strikeout ability, that mark put him in the same range as former luminaries such as Jon Lieber and Matt Morris. While both were successful starters, no one confused their careers with Pedro Martinez or Johan Santana’s.

With over 50 innings under his belt in 2013, Buchholz is mowing down hitters via the strikeout like never before.

His 9.9 K/9 has him in the top 10 among starting pitchers. He’s just behind flamethrowers like Max Scherzer, Matt Harvey and Matt Moore. His current mark puts him ahead of legendary strikeout artists like Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum.

Over the course of baseball history, the best pitchers have often struck out the most batters. While some fans and media members talk about “pitching to contact” to avoid high pitch counts and low innings-per-start totals, retiring batters via strikeout is the quickest way to dominance.

With the understanding that LOB percentage and HR/GB ratio will eventually even out, limiting the amount of balls put into play will yield big results for Buchholz. 

2. Batters can’t decipher his offerings due to movement

A quick look at Buchholz‘s pitch data doesn’t divulge any secret about increased velocity. No, he’s not blowing pitches by batters with 99 mph fastballs. Instead, the movement on his pitches has become so deceptive that batters simply aren’t swinging at strikes.

From 2009-12, batters swung at 61 percent of Buchholz pitches that were in the strike zone. This season, they are only swinging at 53.7 percent of those offerings.

What looks like a ball coming out of his hand is actually a strike.

Comparing anyone to Greg Maddux is baseball blasphemy, but Buchholz has his two-seam fastball working at a level that few have achieved since Maddux’s run of dominance.

When opposing left-handed batters think a fastball is headed for their hip, bailing out and taking the pitch becomes second nature.

This season, that ball is darting back along the inside corner for a called strike.

The following is a look (via BrooksBaseball.net) at the horizontal movement on Buchholz‘s pitches during a dominant outing in Toronto last week.

3. Mental approach

Due to recent injury history and an earned run average in the mid-fours last season, it’s easy to forget how much success Buchholz had at an early age. From the no-hitter in his second major league start to a 2.33 ERA in the American League East at the age of 25, success seemed to come very easy for Buchholz.

While his work ethic was rarely publicly questioned by a usually intrusive Boston baseball media, it was natural to expect the success to continue as he aged and got stronger.

Of course, that didn’t happen.

With failure came perspective. With perspective came an increased work ethic (via Ron Chimelis of MassLive.com).

Add in the return of John Farrell, Boston’s former pitching coach turned manager, and you have a pitcher with a mature outlook and confidence to achieve greatness.

Along with co-ace Jon Lester, the Red Sox are rolling out two of the better pitchers in the American League. The path back from a 69-93 season to contention won’t be easy to sustain, but having a pair of under-30 arms like that can change the direction of any franchise.

Is Buchholz on the path to becoming an ace in Boston?

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Boston Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz is the early favorite for the American League Cy Young Award. He’s won each of his first six starts, racking up a major league-best 1.01 ERA along the way.

And he’s doing it all because he’s a no-good cheater.

This according to longtime pitcher and current Toronto Blue Jays TV analyst Jack Morris. Also accusing Buchholz of cheating is former major league pitcher, current Blue Jays radio analyst and fantastic writer, Dirk Hayhurst.

Morris and Hayhurst believe Buchholz is doctoring the baseball, and their accusations should not be written off as mere sour grapes. The two of them actually have a case.

But first let’s hear the arguments.

The accusations stem from Buchholz‘s most recent start against the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre on Wednesday. He went seven innings and allowed only two hits while striking out eight.

As far as Buchholz‘s performances this season go, it was a fairly typical start. But Morris and Hayhurst think Buchholz was so successful because he was spitballing.

“I found out because the guys on the video camera showed it to me right after the game,” Morris told Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. “I didn’t see it during the game. They showed it to me and said, ‘What do you think of this?’ and I said, ‘Well, he’s throwing a spitter. Cause that’s what it is.”

“The guys” may have brought the footage to Morris’ attention because of Hayhurst, who got the ball rolling on the accusations with remarks on Sportsnet‘s Baseball Central and a subsequent tweet:

Morris echoed this remark.

“It was all over his forearm, all over the lower part of his T-shirt, it’s all in his hair,” he said.

But then Morris admitted: “I can’t prove anything. I can’t prove anything.”

Neither could the Blue Jays. They didn’t even think to prove anything while Buchholz was on the mound, in fact, as manager John Gibbons never asked the umpiring crew to inspect Buchholz.

As for the defense in this case, the Red Sox have a pretty decent alibi.

“He’s got rosin on his arm,” Red Sox manager John Farrell said of Buchholz, via ESPNBoston.com. “He’s not loading up; he’s got rosin on his arm. As soon as someone pitches well or does well, they’re cheating.”

Buchholz also played the rosin card:

Loading up with what, rosin? I get wet from my hair. Are they talking about the stains on my shirt? There probably are stains on my shirt, because I’ve been wearing the same shirt for the last three years.

I’m doing the same thing right now as I did in 2008, when I was sent down to Double-A. But I guess something’s got to be wrong, right?

Now, Major League Baseball’s official rules for pitchers state that no “foreign substance” is allowed on the ball. But this is rosin we’re talking about. It’s legal and readily available, and pitchers have been known to use it liberally.

You don’t notice certain things when you watch baseball games on TV, but you’ve probably seen a pitcher walk off the mound, grab the rosin bag and then coat himself in the stuff. It’s not uncommon to see pitchers pat the rosin bag on their hips or—gasp!—their forearms.

Remember when the rosin bag exploded on Pittsburgh Pirates hurler A.J. Burnett earlier this season? You probably do. If you don’t, the video of it is on the right for your viewing pleasure.

Before the funny part happens, watch where Burnett goes with the rosin bag. First he went to his right hip, and then he went for his left forearm.

Technically, Burnett broke the rules the minute he applied rosin anywhere other than his bare right hand.

A pitcher may use the rosin bag for the purpose of applying rosin to his bare hand or hands. Neither the pitcher nor any other player shall dust the ball with the rosin bag; neither shall the pitcher nor any other player be permitted to apply rosin from the bag to his glove or dust any part of his uniform with the rosin bag.

But do pitchers put rosin everywhere anyway? Absolutely.

Do they ever get punished for it? No. This is just one of those rules that isn’t enforced, so Buchholz shouldn’t be admonished any more than any other pitcher for breaking it.

Was it actually rosin that Hayhurst saw on Buchholz‘s left forearm? Even he admitted it could have been:

Here’s a better look at Buchholz‘s left forearm:

You can see the white streak better here. Rosin is white, so yeah, the likely explanation is that that was rosin on Buchholz‘s left arm. Technically against the rules, but nothing out of the ordinary.

It’s the wetness that looks more suspicious. Buchholz‘s left arm was pretty slick on Wednesday night, and that part’s harder to explain.

If Buchholz is to be believed, it was nothing but sweat. He sweats just like any other pitcher, and he told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca that he doesn’t mind using it:

Put rosin on my arm throughout the game. Sweat, water, whatever. … Sometimes I put a little thing of water on my hip just to get moisture on your hands. Cause sometimes the balls that they throw to you feel like cue balls off a pool table. Got to find a way to get grip. But yeah, I mean, definitely no foreign objects or substances on my arm.

There’s a little too much honesty going on here, but this is another case where Buchholz is basically claiming to be like most other pitchers. They all do something to get a grip, and sweat and water can be pretty useful to that end.

But there’s always the possibility that it wasn’t really sweat or water on Buchholz‘s left arm. 

Hayhurst, who admitted in Out of My League that he knows a thing or two about how pitchers doctor the ball, heard it was something else. He wrote on Friday that sources told him it was sunscreen that was on Buchholz‘s left arm despite the fact the roof at Rogers Centre was closed.

Sunscreen doesn’t come from the human body, and it’s one of the stickier substances out there, so it certainly qualifies as a “foreign substance.” If that’s what Buchholz was using, then he was indeed cheating.

The visual evidence doesn’t work in Buchholz‘s favor. We’ve already seen just how slick his left arm was on Wednesday night, and Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated noticed that Buchholz‘s right arm was much drier by comparison. That puts the “sweat” excuse on shaky ground.

So do a couple of images from years past. Take a look at Buchholz‘s left forearm in this shot from 2010:

And this shot from 2011:

And this shot from last season:

There’s some shine going on here, but nothing quite like what Buchholz had going on Wednesday night. His arm looked like it was drenched in something.

Are these images conclusive? No. But they do lend validity to Morris’ and Hayhurst‘s accusations, which is a point for them.

Then there’s the matter of Buchholz‘s pitches. If he was spitballing, the proof would be in the movement, right?

That’s a point Morris made by referencing the kind of movement Buchholz‘s fastball had on Wednesday. Edes recalled the following exchange with Morris:

Asked if he believed the action of Buchholz‘s pitches suggested he was throwing a spitter, Morris said, “What do you think? Look at the pitches. Fastball at 94 that goes like that,” Morris said, his hand darting swiftly down and away. “On a fastball?”

If you go and watch the highlights of Buchholz‘s start over at MLB.com, you’ll see some fastballs with the kind of action Morris was talking about. In particular, check out the movement on the last two fastballs in the clip. It’s insane.

Now, Buchholz has always had plus stuff, and David Schoenfield of ESPN.com noted that the average movement Buchholz has been getting on his fastball this season is about the same as last year. The guy’s stuff moves, plain and simple.

But it may have been moving too much on Wednesday night. Whereas his fastball has generally averaged roughly minus-4.7 inches of horizontal break the last two seasons, Schoenfield noted that Buchholz‘s fastball was averaging minus-5.5 inches of horizontal break on Wednesday night. That’s no small increase.

So Buchholz either had an unusually good feel for his fastball on Wednesday, or he had an unusually good grip on his fastball. Based on what we’ve seen and heard, it very well could have been the latter.

Case closed?

I’m not going that far yet. There are just good reasons to be suspicious, meaning that Morris and Hayhurst should be cut some slack rather than attacked—I’m looking in your general direction, Dennis Eckersley. Their accusations against Buchholz have some legs.

For now, I’m calling a recess in this case. In the meantime, pay close attention to Buchholz in his next start. If his forearm looks drier than it did on Wednesday night, flashing red lights should go off. If his fastball isn’t moving as much, the alarms should sound.

And if a dry forearm and flat stuff lead to him getting crushed for the first time all season, Buchholz may have admitted his own guilt.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter. 

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Boston Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz, the American League Pitcher of the Month for April, has been accused of doctoring baseballs during his victory over the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre on Wednesday night.

Buchholz tossed seven scoreless innings in the series opener and limited the Jays to two hits as Boston won convincingly, 10-1. He improved to 6-0 on the season with a 1.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 47 SO. With this latest dominant performance, the 28-year-old was looking like an early favorite for the 2013 AL Cy Young Award.

But now, Buchholz and Red Sox personnel have some explaining to do.

Former major league pitcher Dirk Hayhurst called attention to a suspicious substance on the pitcher’s left forearm. Hayhurst happens to be a broadcaster for Sportsnet, the Canadian sports channel that carries the Blue Jays games. He compares Buchholz to Eddie Harris, the notorious cheater from the 1989 movie Major League:

Forget the hair, I just saw video of Buchholz loading the ball with some Eddie Harris worthy slick’em painted up his left forearm. Wow.

— Dirk Hayhurst (@TheGarfoose) May 2, 2013

*Warning: This video contains adult language.

The following day, Boston manager John Farrell explained to reporters—including Alex Speier of WEEI.com—that his pitcher had made legal use of the rosin bag that lies behind the mound.

“Rosin was designed to get a grip,” Farrell said. “[Buchholz’s] got it on his arm.”

Buchholz shared his side of the story with MassLive.com’s Evan Drellich. He spoke generally about why he uses rosin and others substances, and reiterated that he wasn’t manipulating balls with anything “foreign”:

Put rosin on my arm throughout the game. Sweat, water, whatever…Sometimes I put a little thing of water on my hip just to get moisture on your hands. Cause sometimes the balls that they throw to you feel like cue balls off a pool table. Got to find a way to get grip. But yeah, I mean, definitely no foreign objects or substances on my arm.

Well, the Toronto media wasn’t buying that. Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi writes that the scoreboard crew at the Rogers Centre uncovered additional video that revealed “a creamy white substance on his left forearm, which he would run through with his index and middle fingers.”

Hayhurst tweeted this Sportsnet screenshot prior to Thursday’s series finale:

Could be rosin, could be something else. Looked awfully fishy, is all.twitter.com/TheGarfoose/st…

— Dirk Hayhurst (@TheGarfoose) May 2, 2013

Then the big guns got involved.

Longtime MLB starter and former World Series hero Jack Morris is also a Blue Jays broadcaster. According to ESPNBoston.com, he believes Buchholz was throwing spitballs. Even though Buchholz’s substance of choice was all over his body, Morris says, this generation of baseball professionals can’t recognize it:

Funny thing, the way the game is played today. In our generation, every player, every coach would have seen it, the umpire would have gone out and made him change, made him stop and that changes everything. Or else they throw him out of the game. So what kind of bugs all of us is nothing is done here.

Dennis Eckersley, a first-ballot Hall of Famer and analyst for the New England Sports Network (NESN), didn’t take kindly to that.

He began an on-air rant, WEEI.com reports, by pointing out that the key to Buchholz’s success is pinpoint location—”the guy paints”—rather than dramatic, unpredictable movement associated with the spitball. “When you throw a spitball,” Eckersley continued, “the ball falls off the table, and you know it right away. The hitters didn’t complain.”

But next, the legendary closer went way out of bounds, belittling Hayhurst by calling him “a career minor leaguer” and dismissing Morris’ opinion because, “He hasn’t even made the Hall of Fame yet!”

After 24 hours of back-and-forth, this whole thing truly went national: the juggernauts at ESPN weighed in. Anticlimactically, studio analysts/former superstars Barry Larkin and Curt Schilling dismissed the notion that Buchholz knowingly cheated.

Update: Saturday, May 4 at 7:39 a.m. ET

Orel Hershiser, the 1988 NL Cy Young Award winner, is the latest retired player to come to Buchholz’s defense.

He made an appearance on The Herd with Colin Cowherd and reminisced about using a similar tactic. Hershiser often wet his hair between innings because the moisture would “activate the rosin” and help him get a better grip.

“It’s not illegal, it’s not even close to illegal,” he insisted.

——–End of Update——-

Their assurances have not discouraged Hayhurst. In a column on Sportsnet.ca, he reiterated that “close-up video” confirmed his suspicions. He concludes by leaning on his baseball experience.

“I was around long enough to know I needed an edge,” Hayhurst writes, “and subsequently learn how to spot others who are finding one.”

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Boston Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz has jumped out to arguably the best start of any pitcher in baseball this season. While it is unlikely he will keep up his current torrid pace, signs indicate that he can continue contributing outstanding production.

The 28-year-old right-hander is off to the finest start of his career, having posted a 5-0 record and 1.19 ERA in his first five starts. In 37.2 innings, he has allowed just 25 hits while striking out 39 and walking 13. Additionally, he has gone at least seven innings in each of his starts and has given up two or fewer runs each time.

Pitching in his seventh major league season, he is 51-32 with a 3.77 ERA in 112 career games (110 starts) but has struggled with health and inconsistency. The only two seasons he had as many as 16 starts in his previous six years in Boston came in 2010 (28 starts) and 2012 (29 starts).

The Providence Journal’s Tim Britton explained in a couple of tweets why what Buchholz is doing this year has been both rare and historic:

Clay Buchholz is the first MLB starter in 11 years to go at least seven innings with 2ER or fewer in his first five starts of the season.

— Tim Britton (@TimBritton) April 26, 2013

Buchholz done. He’s the first Red Sox starter to go at least seven in his first five starts since Pedro in 2000.

— Tim Britton (@TimBritton) April 26, 2013

Buchholz’s connection to the legendary Pedro Martinez goes beyond his stand-out early-season numbers. WEEI’s Alex Speier wrote that Buchholz was a 2005 compensatory first-round draft choice Boston received from Martinez signing as a free agent with the New York Mets.

Few pitchers have or ever will match Martinez’s production with the Red Sox (117-37, 2.52 ERA in seven seasons). However, Buchholz has become a very solid starter, and a number of factors suggest he will continue building upon his outstanding start to the 2013 season.

With a caveat that five games is a small sample size, FanGraphs.com’s data suggests that Buchholz may have harnessed his stuff and matured into a better pitcher.

His average fastball velocity of 91.6 mph is the lowest of his career. Despite the loss of speed, his vFA/C (Fastball Runs Above Average per 100 pitches) of 0.97 is his highest since 2010, when it was 1.14. In addition, his Runs Above Average per 100 pitches value on his cutter (4.04), curveball (2.28) and changeup (2.31) are the highest of his career.

His 9.3 strikeouts, 6.0 hits and 0.2 home runs allowed per nine innings represent career bests, while he has surpassed the 3.0 walks he has allowed per nine innings this year just once before.

Combining those statistics with his pitch values and the fact that there have been no significant changes in how frequently he has thrown his various pitches provides solid proof that he is commanding his stuff better than ever.

The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported that Boston manager John Farrell and pitching coach Juan Nieves mandated that Red Sox pitchers, especially Buchholz, pick up the pace between pitches this season. This was to not only to keep hitters off balance but also to prevent the pitchers from thinking too much.

It appears Buchholz has succeeded in adopting that approach. FanGraphs.com shows that he is averaging 23.3 seconds between pitches, which is the best mark of his career and nearly 2.5 seconds better than last year’s mark of 25.6.

Looking at his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) counters any argument that his success has been due to luck. The .264 average he’s allowed this year is right in line with his career mark of .281. It is also nearly identical to the .261 he permitted in 2010, when he had his best season as a major leaguer, going 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA.

Buchholz has also maintained his success when working with different catchers.

BaseballReference.com shows he has a 1.14 ERA when caught by starter Jarrod Saltalamacchia and a 1.29 ERA when David Ross, who is considered a much better defender, is his receiver.

Buchholz’s dominance has come against diverse competition. Four of his five starts have come at home. He has also faced three teams with winning records, including the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, who both rank in the top four in runs per game in the American League.

It’s highly unlikely that Buchholz will finish with a 1.19 ERA. However, if he remains consistent in the various improvements he appears to have made, there’s no reason why he won’t be one of the best pitchers in baseball at the end of the 2013 season.

Statistics via Baseball-Reference (except where noted) 

Follow @historianandrew

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A week after ending the longest sellout streak in baseball, the Red Sox helped fill their fans’ hearts with pride after one of Boston’s darkest days. Then they continued their own shocking revival.

Nobody could have predicted the horrific events that struck the city on Marathon Monday and few could have anticipated the start that has quickly reestablished the Sox—at least for now—as a viable force in the American League. Timely hitting, near-historic starting pitching and a new attitude infused by new manager John Farrell has resulted in the AL’s best record (13-6, tied with Texas) out of the gate.

Even more surprising than the speed with which Farrell seems to have turned around the clubhouse mojo is how quickly the Red Sox have regained the respect of fans disillusioned by the woeful 2012 season and the calamitous reign of Bobby Valentine.

It is still too early to compare this team to the feel-good squads of 1967 and 1975, but as they did in those memorable summers, the Sox are winning with a roster that has few established superstars but plenty of likable characters for whom it’s easy to cheer.

Here’s a look at the Sox in 6:

Begin Slideshow

The 2013 Boston Red Sox will need a lot of player contributions if they want to rebound from last year’s disappointing 93 losses. In particular, the team needs a big season from pitcher Clay Buchholz. 

The 28-year-old right-hander has struggled to find consistency during his six-year major league career, but he’s become a source of optimism for the upcoming season. 

Buchholz was a supplemental first-round draft choice of the Red Sox in 2005 out of McNeese State University. He debuted with Boston in 2007 and famously no-hit the Baltimore Orioles in just his second major league start. Since then, his results have been a mixed bag. 

Buchholz is a combined 46-32 with a 3.92 ERA in 107 career games (105 starts). His best season came in 2010, when he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA in 28 starts. That season, he was named an All Star and finished sixth in American League Cy Young voting.

There have also been nagging injuries, including a stress fracture in his back that caused Buchholz to miss all but 14 starts in 2011.

He went 11-8 with a 4.76 ERA last year, throwing a career-high 189.1 innings. Buchholz was much better down the stretch, however, as his 3.76 ERA in the second half of the season was nearly two runs better than his 5.53 mark from the first half.

The Red Sox need Buchholz to take the leap to a dependable and durable starter who can log innings and keep the team in games.

These expectations are not lost on the righty, who told the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman that his goal is to become a consistent workhorse:

Yeah, that’s a big thing for me, I want to get to that point and hopefully that will eliminate all the small talk that’s been talked about me in the past. That’s probably the common goal for every starting pitcher. I think the key to that is just being healthy and being able to go out there every fifth day and not missing a span of time during the season, and not being able to make your 30 or so starts.

The Red Sox have already invested in Buchholz’s potential. They agreed to a four-year, $29.9 million extension just after the start of the 2011 season, with two option years that could be worth an additional combined $26.5 million and keep him in Boston through the 2017 season.

If he can be even a league-average pitcher during the remainder of his contract, Buchholz would be extremely valuable. Pitching is the hottest commodity in baseball, with Justin Verlander’s recent record-setting $180 million extension setting the market pace.

Buchholz will be the team’s No. 2 starter this season behind ace Jon Lester. The baby-faced pitcher is no longer a prospect and needs to perform like the well-paid veteran that he is because of questions marks surrounding the team’s rotation.

Lester is trying to bounce back from a career-worst 9-14 record and 4.82 ERA last year. Ryan Dempster, signed to a free-agent contract during the offseason, has just a 4.76 career ERA against American League teams. And John Lackey is returning from Tommy John surgery and hasn’t pitched in a regular season game since 2011.

Felix Doubront, meanwhile, has a lot of potential. He struck out more than a batter per inning last season, his first full year in Boston’s rotation. Although he threw well this spring, though, he did anger the front office by showing up to camp in poor shape.

If Buchholz can turn in a consistent season, it would go a long way in solidifying the rotation that has so few guarantees. If spring training stats are any indication, he is ready to prove himself this season. He made six starts this spring, going 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA while striking out 22 batters in 22.2 innings.

Buchholz is also picking up his pace between pitches in an effort to keep hitters more off-balance. This is a philosophy taught by new Boston pitching coach Juan Nieves and something Buchholz explained to the Boston Herald’s Scott Lauber will be a tool that will really help his game:

The pace of the game is big for me. That does a lot to help me. It’s more just, get the ball and get a pitch and throw it and take all the thinking out of it. It’s been particularly one of my problems that whenever something hits the fan, I slow the game down and make sure I’m doing the right thing, and sometimes that might hurt me more than it’ll help me.

The proof will be in the pudding once the games start to count. Buchholz’s performance this season will not only go a long way in determining the fate of the Red Sox, it will also establish his own legacy. 

Statistics via Baseball-Reference 

Follow @historianandrew

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Clay Buchholz made a triumphant return Saturday (July 14) after being sidelined for almost a month with esophagitis. The bullpen and offense just could not back him up.

Before the illness, Buchholz was on fire. In his four starts prior to going down with esophagitis, he was 4-0, with a 2.40 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 30 innings pitched.

Before Saturday’s game, he was 8-2 with a 5.53 ERA. But it really is his last seven starts that have Red Sox fans excited. 

Tom Caron of NESN summed it best when he tweeted:

Clay Buchholz is proof that performance can’t be gauged by W-L rec. In 1st 7 starts, he was 4-1 w/ a 8.31 ERA. In last 7 he’s 4-1 w/ a 3.23

— Tom Caron (@TomCaron) July 14, 2012

Although his last start against Miami (on June 19) was a little bump in the road (when he allowed five earned runs), his numbers were trending in the right direction.

He continued that trend Saturday. 

Buchholz looked strong and struck out Elliot Johnson to start the night. He got Carlos Pena to fly out to left and struck out Ben Zobrist looking to end the first inning.  

Buchholz started the second inning by striking out B.J. Upton, got Luke Scott to ground out and got Jeff Keppinger to ground out to short. Buchholz was rolling. His control, in particular, was very impressive.

Tom Britton of The Providence Journal tweeted:

Buchholz’s three called strikeouts matches the number he had in the last three starts combined (called, specifically).

— Tim Britton (@TBritton_Projo) July 14, 2012

The only problem was that Tampa Bay ace David Price was having an equally great start to the game as he only allowed one baserunner in three innings. 

Buchholz gave up his first hit of the night to start the third inning as Desmond Jennings lined a shot to right field. Jose Molina followed with a single to right, sending Jennings to third. There were runners at the corners with no outs. Sean Rodriguez lined to center for a sac fly, and Johnson flied to right. Buchholz got Pena to fly to right, and Buchholz limited to damage to only one run.  

Boston responded in the top of the fourth. After Price struck out Pedro Ciriaco, David Ortiz singled to center. After Cody Ross struck out, it seemed Price was simply going to dominate the night. Then, Middlebrooks stepped to the plate and crushed his 11th home run of the season giving Boston a 2-1 lead. 

It was a much-needed boost for Middlebrooks, who has been struggling recently. Before Saturday’s game, Middlbrooks was hitting just .150 with one home run and one RBI in his previous five games. 

In the bottom of the fourth, Buchholz got Zobrist to pop out, struck out Upton and got Scott looking. 

The Red Sox almost blew it open in the fifth. Price walked Kelly Shoppach to start the inning, and Brent Lillibridge followed with a single to the centerfield. Nava followed with a hard shot to right field, but it was right to Zobrist.

Ellsbury hit a single to left field. The Red Sox had the bases loaded with only one out. Ciriaco lined one to right field, and Shoppach, looking impossibly slow, was gunned down at the plate after he tagged up at third. Actually, Shoppach never even touched the plate. 

Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe tweeted:

Jose Molina knows his business at the dish. Shoppach couldn’t get to the plate.

— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) July 15, 2012

Keppinger started the bottom of the fifth with a double, and Jennings placed a perfect sacrifice bunt down the the first base line to send Keppinger to third. Molina was back in the thick of things when he hit a hard grounder to short.

Mike Aviles botched the play, and Tampa Bay tied the game on his error. But Buchholz struck out Rodriguez and Johnson back to back, and once again, limited the damage to only one run. 

Price got Ortiz to pop out to start the sixth. Cody Ross followed with a walk and advanced to second on passed ball by Molina. Ross took third on a Middlebrooks groundout and scored when Price threw a wild ball to third base that sailed over Keppinger’s head. Ross was bluffing down the third base line and would have been out on a clean throw. 

Peter Abraham noted the base running play is a Bobby Valentine move:

The bluff down the third base line is something Bobby V likes that others call bush. But that’s 2 runs it has produced this year.

— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) July 15, 2012

Bush or not (and I’m not sure why it is a bush league move), it gave Boston a 3-2 lead against one of the best pitchers in the league. 

Buchholz picked up where he left off and had an easy 1-2-3 sixth. He only needed eight pitches to get through the inning. 

Price matched Buchholz’s sixth by cruising through the top of the seventh. He made easy work of Shoppach, Lillibridge and Nava. 

Buchholz seemed to lose a little steam to start the seventh as he walked Scott to start the inning. It was his first walk of the night. He followed by hitting Keppinger. Jennings placed yet another perfect sac bunt down the first base line advancing Scott and Keppinger.

With that, Buchholz’s night was over. There will be a debate in the days to come as to whether Buchholz should have been in the seventh inning in the first place. 

Matt Albers entered the game and intentionally walked pinch-hitter Hideki Matsui (Matsui pinch hit for Molina). But the intentional walk backfired as Albers walked pinch-hitter Jose Lobaton with the bases loaded to tie the game 3-3.

Johnson followed with a sac fly to centerfield to give Tampa Bay a 4-3 lead. Buchholz was on the hook for the baserunners, and his nice performance was largely wasted by the ineffective Albers. Andrew Miller replaced Albers with two outs in the seventh. Miller struck out Pena to end the seventh. 

The final line on Buchholz: 6.1IP, 3H, 4ER, BB, 8K, HBP.

It was the low point of the night for the Sox pitching staff as they gave up two runs without the Rays even needing the benefit of a hit. 

Ellsbury started the top of the eighth with a double down the right field line. Ciriaco was unable to to advance Ellsbury when he popped out on a bunt attempt. Ortiz walked, and that ended Price’s night. Joel Peralta came on in relief to face Cody Ross. Peralta made easy work of Ross and Middlebrooks, thus wasting the leadoff double by Ellsbury.

The big debate in the days to come is Valentine’s decision to have Ciriaco try to bunt with Ellsbury on second with no outs. 

Twitter responded immediately:

Peter Abraham tweeted:

6 outs left. Giving one away, even if it gets the runner over, is a mistake. Hated that call.

— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) July 15, 2012

Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com tweeted:

Agreed. Even w/ injuries to lineup, Sox have bunted far too much this year @stataz why bunt in that situation? Play for 1 run on the road?

— Sean McAdam(@Sean_McAdam) July 15, 2012

The bottom of the eighth was no better for the Red Sox as Miller gave up a home run to Upton and a double to Keppinger. Miller was lifted for Melancon. Melancon got Jennings to ground out to end the eighth. 

Fernando Rodney came in to try to close out the game in the ninth. Aviles greeted him with a single up the middle. Jarrod Saltalamacchia pinch hit for Shoppach and struck out. Lillibridge struck out, and Nava popped out to left to end the game.

It was an unfortunate loss for the Red Sox. Buchholz pitched extremely well coming off the DL, and the Red Sox squandered an opportunity to take the first two games of the series. As for Valentine’s decision to have Ciriaco bunt and put Buchholz out there in the seventh—let the debate begin.  

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After being shellacked in his May 21 start at Baltimore, Clay Buchholz looked like a pitcher better suited for the International League than the American League.

Now, after a string of excellent performances, he looks much more like the pitcher who was an All-Star and finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting in 2010. His improvement has also launched the Sox right back into contention.

The right-hander has been on an excellent run of late, rattling off consecutive impressive starts against the Rays, Blue Jays and Orioles, three of the better offensive teams in the American League.

Buchholz has allowed just four earned runs in his last 24.0 innings (an ERA of 1.50), lowering his overall ERA from 7.84 to 5.77. After struggling with his control all season, he has walked just four while striking out 19 over the same period.

Buchholz’s reversal of fortune has come at a pivotal moment for the Sox. With the demotion of Daniel Bard and the inconsistency of Jon Lester, the Sox desperately needed Buchholz to rediscover his form and provide stability for the rotation.

If his recent performance is any indication, he has done just that.

Despite their improved play, the Sox still rank 27th in MLB in ERA (4.47), 28th in runs allowed (278) and 24th in WHIP (1.37). Buchholz has been a huge contributor to these poor numbers, as he ranked last or near last among qualifiers in several categories before his recent hot streak.

There’s no question that Buchholz is a good pitcher, certainly a better one than his early performance indicated. However, his career has been a bit confusing; is he the pitcher of 2010 who stayed healthy and dominated the competition, or is he the erratic, enigmatic pitcher of 2008 and 2009?

Buchholz will turn 28 in August, so his “development” has effectively ended. The time has come for him to show what kind of pitcher he is.

This latest run of success is a great sign for the Sox and their fans. For a pitcher, especially, the recovery from back problems can be a painfully difficult and slow process. It’s fair to wonder if Buchholz’s early season struggles primarily stemmed from his ongoing recuperation from last year’s season-ending back injury, rather than some sort of deep-seated mechanical flaw.

Now that Buchholz is about a year removed from his injury, he’s begun to resemble the pitcher fans remember. He got off to a strong start in 2011 before his injury, so his track record of strong performances does not come solely from one season.

The transformation of the Sox rotation from a weakness to a strength really begins with Buchholz. Josh Beckett and Felix Doubront have been steady performers all season, and though he’s struggled at times Lester’s effort has been at least passable.

Buchholz, though, has been the wild card. Although his record currently stands at 6-2, those numbers belie the absolutely brutal performances he put forth early in the season. He allowed five or more earned runs in each of his first six starts and seven of his first nine.

His turnaround, then, can swing the balance of power in the tightly-contested division race.

With every team at .500 or better and just four games separating the first and last place teams, every hot or cold streak is going to matter in the 2012 AL East. Buchholz’ ability to shut down opposing offenses, especially those within the division, will make a huge impact on the Sox’s chances.

Even an average performance from Buchholz the rest of the way will give the Sox an extra couple wins, and in a race this tight that will likely make all the difference.

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Although the Boston Red Sox have won their last four games, they currently sit in last place in the AL East with a 16-19 record. Many pundits have counted them out for the season and expect they’ll finish around .500 or below.

The reality is that while the Red Sox have gotten off to a slow start this season, they will be competing for the top spot in the division well into September.

The Sox have been carried so far by their championship-level offense, which has scored 194 runs, second in the MLB to only the Texas Rangers led by Josh Hamilton.

David Ortiz has led the way with a .346 batting average and 26 RBIs, both top-five in the league. Dustin Pedroia is his usual self, and the Sox have gotten quality contributions from newcomers Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, and rookie Will Middlebrooks.

But Boston has missed Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford, who have played seven games between them this season due to injury. If either Ellsbury can come back and pick up where he left off last year, or if Crawford can return to his pre-2011 form, the offense will be even better.

This is a team that’s given 56 at-bats so far to expected reserve outfielder Darnell McDonald and his .179 batting average. Having Ellsbury, Crawford or both back and hitting well for Boston should give them an even bigger boost to an already formidable attack.

While their offense is one of the best in the league, the reason the Sox currently sit in last place to start the year is because of their dreadful pitching.

They’ve given up 187 runs, which is the highest figure in the MLB—not something you’d usually associate with a pitching staff led by Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Clay Buchholz.

Lester has been a model of consistency for the Sox the past few years, sporting an ERA between 3.21 and 3.47 for each of the past four seasons. His complete game last night lowered his ERA to 3.71, and he looks to be back on track to another fine campaign.

Beckett has an ERA of 5.97 after his last start when he gave up seven runs in less than three innings, an outing in which manager Bobby Valentine suggested Beckett was tipping his pitches. Beckett had a 4.10 ERA in his career with the Sox, a number that’s inflated by his adjustment year to the AL in 2006 and his injury-filled 2010 campaign.

This is a player who had a 2.89 ERA last season; he should be able to turn it around and finish another solid year with a sub 4.00 ERA.

Buchholz, on the other hand, sports an 8.31 ERA and 1.97 WHIP, both last in the majors by far.

Although he hasn’t looked good all year, he showed signs of improvement in his last start, giving up three runs in six innings. Buchholz has the pitching repertoire to succeed—he’s had seasons of 2.33 and 3.48 ERAs—but just needs to harness his stuff properly.

If he continues to fail, the Red Sox have the pitching depth to replace him. Aaron Cook has looked great in Triple-A ball, and Daisuke Matsuzaka is close to returning from his elbow injury.  

Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard have both been strong at the back end of the rotation, and the first-time starters should continue to improve as the season progresses.

The bullpen started off rocky but has pitched well of late, with Alfredo Aceves looking more and more like an elite closer after each outing.

The pen should get a boost both when Andrew Bailey returns from his thumb injury and when Mark Melancon gets called up from the minors. Although the former Astros closer looked terrible in his work with the Sox earlier this season, Melancon has struck out 19 batters in 11 innings in Triple-A without giving up a run and should be back to being a solid reliever when he gets another shot in Boston.

Poor pitching to start the year is the reason the Sox currently stand at three games under .500. As long as their offense continue to hit, once the pitching stabilizes they should be back in contention for the AL East crown.

Baseball’s a long season, and with only 35 out of 162 games played, the Red Sox surely have a chance to finish first in one of the toughest divisions in baseball.

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The Boston Red Sox (2-5) continue a four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday afternoon inside Fenway Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET.

Las Vegas oddsmakers have established the Red Sox as -130 home favorites after snapping a two-game losing streak, and the total stands at nine.

Boston started the season 0-4 during day games before Friday’s 12-2 matinee victory, but the club also suffered a devastating blow to its starting lineup. Outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is expected to miss six to eight weeks with a shoulder injury after trying to break up a double play at second base.

Clay Buchholz (0-0, 15.75 ERA) may provide a lift for the club due to his career numbers versus Tampa Bay. Bucholz has a 4-2 record and 1.81 ERA in eight starts against the Rays. The right-hander has managed to allow three earned runs or less in each of those outings.

The Red Sox are 11-4 in Buchholz’s last 15 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, while the “under” is 16-5-1 in that situation.

Tampa Bay has dropped three of four games on its recent road trip, which immediately followed a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field. The Rays have managed to score just eight combined runs away from the Sunshine State, with the “under” going 2-1-1 over that span.

Jeremy Hellickson (1-0, 0.00 ERA) is coming off a brilliant performance against the Bronx Bombers, tossing 8.2 shutout innings and scattering just three hits in a 3-0 win on April 8. He will be closely monitored on the mound in this one after throwing 118 pitches in that effort.

In five career appearances (four starts) versus the Red Sox, Hellickson is 2-1 with a 4.21 ERA, including a perfect 2-0 mark and 4.26 ERA in three outings at Fenway Park. Sports bettors will need to be cautious, though as the Rays are 1-4  in his last five starts as a road underdog.

Weather forecasts are calling for mostly cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the mid to upper-60s, with 10-15 mph winds out of the southwest (out to center).

Total players will find that the “over” was 9-3 and games averaged 11.67 runs in those conditions inside this historic ballpark last year.

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