In Boston the weather has been a tease this week.
Two days ago the temps were in the mid 50’s. Yesterday, it snowed. The Fenway Faithful are starting to salivate for the start of the 2012 season. The team was disgraced last year. Hopefully that means there is a chip on the shoulder of many men on this roster.
Most of all, the pitchers.
With a lot to prove and a fanbase anxious for baseball, here is a look at what we can expect from the starting pitchers in 2012.
1. Josh Beckett
Josh Beckett has been a fantastic pitcher for the Boston Red Sox since joining the team in 2006.
Unfortunately, he’s also been somewhat of an enigma. He has almost ritualistically followed up a stellar season with a lackluster one (often due to injury). Since his first season in Boston, his stats have resembled a typical roller-coaster ride:
2006: 16-11, 5.01 ERA
2007: 20-7, 3.27 ERA
2008: 12-10, 4.03 ERA
2009: 17-6, 3.86 ERA
2010: 6-6, 5.78 ERA
2011: 13-7, 2.89 ERA
So in 2012, will Beckett have another 17- to 20-win season? Or regress and have one of his notorious off years? Only time will tell, but he has been a staple for this Red Sox rotation for a long time, and it’s safe to say he’ll be one the Red Sox’s top starters next season.
Beckett also made an effort to address last season’s issues of drinking in the clubhouse, which can be taken as a good omen.
I’ll look for Beckett to have a bounce-back season and play with a bit of a chip on his shoulder after all of the negative attention he garnered last season.
Is he a lock to be the Opening Day starter? No. But it will likely be either Beckett or Jon Lester.
2. Jon Lester
One of the most consistent pitchers in all of baseball, Lester will once again anchor the Red Sox rotation during the 2012 season.
Consistently good for over 200 innings, an ERA under 4.00 and double-digit wins, Lester is as close to a sure thing next season as the Red Sox are likely to see.
3. Clay Buchholz
Buchholz pitched well last season before going down with a stress fracture in his back, which ended his 2011 season.
The Red Sox will rely heavily on Buchholz next season if they want to compete with the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.
His injury last season was a major reason why the Red Sox collapsed in September and missed the playoffs. Their starting pitchers slumped in a big way (and to be honest, the entire team did as well).
If they still had Buchholz making starts late last season, maybe they would have made the playoffs. He had been one of the best pitchers in the majors up until his injury, sporting a 17-7 record to go with an astounding 2.33 ERA.
Hindsight aside, Buchholz will be a huge X-factor regarding Boston’s success moving forward.
4. Daniel Bard
All signs seem to point to Bard converting to a starter this season.
With the bulk of the moves this offseason going toward fixing the bullpen, adding Mark Melancon and Andrew Bailey, it seems that Bard’s move to the starting rotation is evident.
There’s always a chance that Bard could revert back to his role as setup man (or even switch to closer), but I don’t see that happening barring an injury or setback. If the Red Sox can get Bobby Jenks back to full strength this season as well (after the disastrous injury-ridden season last year, followed by news of a pulmonary embolism), that would further improve their already deep bullpen.
It will be very interesting to see how Bard’s talents translate into becoming a starting pitcher, especially when you think about how his arm will hold up with a huge increase in innings.
5. Bring on the Competition
I use the term “competition” loosely here. The fifth starter spot for the Red Sox is a giant question mark. The only positive Red Sox fans should find with this slot is that it won’t be filled by John Lackey’s underbite next season.
Moving Alfredo Aceves from the bullpen to the fifth starter spot I think hurts the team’s great bullpen depth too much to be considered an option. Also, I think if the Red Sox had plans to move Aceves into the rotation, they would have done it last year in an attempt to right the ship.
Andrew Miller could be seen as an option, but after a solid start to his 2011 campaign, Miller was very inconsistent and struggled with command.
At 45 years old, Tim Wakefield may opt to retire instead of sticking around as the Red Sox’s security blanket for another season, but could still be a viable option.
As for Daisuke Matsuzaka, well, I’ll leave that explanation up to Peter Gammons. It’s hard to believe that this is the same pitcher who went 18-3 with a 2.80 ERA for the Red Sox in 2008. Injuries have derailed Dice-K’s MLB career, which showed so much promise just three years ago. I’d be surprised if Matsuzaka made any appearances this year even if he gets healthy before the end of the season.
There’s also what my friend Asher and I refer to sarcastically as “The Trifecta”—also known as the trio of pitchers the Sox acquired in the offseason to compete for this final slot (or even a spot on the roster): Vicente Padilla, Carlos Silva and Aaron Cook.
I suppose now with the signing of John Maine, fans can switch this to “The Quad.” Regardless of what fans call it, the pitcher who makes this slot will likely need a lot of run support to be successful.
There’s still an off chance that the Red Sox will sign free-agent starter Roy Oswalt, but I honestly don’t think it will happen.
The Sox were also rumored to have offered Edwin Jackson a contract, but the Washington Nationals signed him for $11 million for next season. Personally, I think that $11 million is an absurd amount of money to pay a pitcher who has a career ERA of 4.46, but the Nationals have gained a reputation for overpaying players.
Point being, if Jackson can get $11 million for one season, I bet Oswalt’s agent is watching. He may not get that kind of money, but he’ll probably hold out for more money than the Red Sox can offer.
So again, let the competition for the fifth starter position begin. Maybe spring training will lend itself to stiff competition between a group of guys vying for an important spot on Boston’s roster.
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It’s not that there aren’t some legitimate questions about the Red Sox and their rotation heading into the 2012 season.
It’s not that the two pitchers who eventually end up getting the bulk of the starts out of the number four and number five slots in the rotation won’t have a dramatic impact on how the upcoming season pans out.
It’s just that it’s also important to remember that the first three slots in the starting pitching rotation otherwise known as “the heart of the rotation” for the bulk of major league teams is or could be pretty darned good.
Yes, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka are hurt, and no, the Sox never did land any of the high profile starting pitchers that dotted the free-agent landscape for just over three months.
John Maine, Vicente Padilla and Aaron Cook are on the list of potential back-of-the-rotation starters. It’s the type of list that might elicit one of those “Who the heck are these guys??” types of statements as seen in the movie Major League.
There are three guys who will definitely start this season. In fact they’re going to be called the “number one, number two and number three starters.” They’re pretty good too. Who are they? Well in case you forgot….
Country music singer Kevin Fowler released a music video for his single “Hell Yeah, I Like Beer” back on July 22.
The entire Red Sox starting rotation makes cameos in the video.
Yup…Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey and Tim Wakefield—all five of them sing their praises to booze.
Fowler’s video created a little buzz in Red Sox Nation when it was released.
However, it’s really now over two months down the road that Fowler’s video is really gaining press and momentum.
Look here. And here. And here. And here.
“I Like Beer” is getting all of the press it’s getting now, of course, with the infamous and now well documented revelation that all of these guys, save Wakefield, routinely retreated to the clubhouse during games in off days to throw back beers, chow down on fried chicken and play video games.
The irony is terrible and also way too easy.
How can any Red Sox journalist resist the urge to reference Fowler’s video in any column about the alcohol-aided shortcomings of Boston’s starting pitching?
That Lackey and Beckett get the bulk of the screen time among the pitchers just adds fuel to the fire.
It’s truly all too perfect.
That said, I, and probably many other Sox fans, do think the beer-chicken-video-games story has become more than a bit overblown.
That said, Lackey, Beckett and Lester going lax on their conditioning probably did contribute to their personal and the team’s overall September shortcomings.
Point is, these guys’ clubhouse antics is just too good of a story to pass up.
And any good story needs a good name.
A buddy and I have decided to forever call this incident “The Curse of the KFC.”
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After struggling through a brutal month of April, the Red Sox began playing up to their potential during the month of May, going 19-10 and temporarily pulling into first place before slumping as the month came to a close.
The month included a seven-game winning streak, an 11-0 drubbing at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels and back-to-back wins in which the offense scored a pair of touchdowns.
The offense hit .287 in May and produced 156 runs (5.38 runs per game), but the pitching staff wasn’t quite as successful, posting a 4.01 ERA in the month.
The starting rotation won more games in May than it had in April (13, as opposed to 10), but saw its ERA increase by more than a quarter of a run (4.14, as opposed to 3.83 in April).
On the other hand, the bullpen was dramatically better…posting a much better record (6-4, as opposed to 1-5 in April) and lower its ERA by nearly a run-and-a-half (3.76, down from 5.13).
With the first weekend of June upon us, it is time for me to distribute my report card for the first two months of the 2011 campaign.
Over the course of the next two days, I will present my report card for the ballclub through the first two months of the 2011 season. Today, I start with the pitching staff… tomorrow I’ll examine the hitters:
The Starting Rotation
Josh Beckett: A-
He was surprisingly strong in April, and somehow managed to be even better during May despite not having a lot to show for it (thanks to paltry run support).
Last month, he went 2-1, with an exceptional 1.00 ERA (4 ER in 36 IP) and 1.17 WHIP (up from April, when it was just 0.85).
I am not saying he is the pitcher he was back in 2007-08, he is not—his strikeout-rate is three-quarters of a point lower and his walk-rate is nearly double what it was back in the day—and according to fangraphs.com, less than half of his pitches are in the strike zone (his zone rating is just 48.8% thus far in 2011).
Plus, his ground ball to fly ball ratio is nearly 1-to-1 thus far in 2011. These are harbingers of potential problems for later in the season…but all things being equal, the ballclub will take it. He seems to have reinvented himself on the mound.
He is pitching more to contact. He is relying less on his fastball (52% in 2011) and curve (17%) while using his cutter (17%) and changeup (14%) far more often.
He only averaged six innings per start throughout the month of May, but when the results are as good as they were it is hard to complain about length of outings… still, there is enough to be concerned about here that he doesn’t get an “A.”
Clay Buchholz: B
After sleepwalking through the month of April, Clay flipped the switch in May… it truly was a Tale of Two Pitchers. After going 1-3, 5.33 in April, he went 3-0, 2.08 in May.
But it is the peripherals that really underscore how well he pitched in May: opponents hit just .204 against him, his WHIP was 0.95, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio was an outstanding 3.63-to-1 over 39 IP (he walked 8 batters all month).
His grade lags due to his slow start, and while I am cautiously optimistic moving forward, I see warning signs on the horizon: most notably, he has thrown just 44% of his pitches for strikes in 2011.
If hitters start to lay off his offerings, he’ll either issue more walks or have to give them better pitches to swing at…and then what happens?
John Lackey: F
A rough April turned into an unbelievably horrific May for Lackey, and after two starts early in the month he was shut down with a tender elbow, but the widespread conjecture is that his struggles have had nothing to do with any physical discomfort in his right arm.
Most pundits believe his struggles are a direct result of issues in his personal life—that is to say, his focus is lacking (no pun intended) when he is at the ballpark as a result of his wife’s battle with cancer.
While his dilemma is understandable and we can all sympathize with his plight, his manager and teammates need him to do a better job of blocking those issues from his mind when he toes the rubber.
It’s a lot to ask, but if he leans how to do it he may be able to use baseball as an escape from those things in life that really matter…
Jon Lester: B
Lester has got it all backwards. He is a usually slow starter who gets better as the weather heats up before faltering in the intense heat of August, but the 2011 season thus far hasn’t followed form.
He was strong in April (3-1, 2.52), raising Red Sox Nation’s expectations this would develop into his first Cy Young campaign… but those hopes were dashed by a brutal May—during which he posted a 5.50 ERA over 36 IP (though his record was 4-1).
He pitched well in Cleveland 10 days ago and it appeared he had turned things around, but the White Sox hammered him on Monday night (5.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 4 BB), so we are again left to wonder what is going on with our would-be ace.
Thanks to his offense, he was 2-0, with 1 No Decision, in three games in which he allowed 14 earned runs in just 17.1 IP; otherwise, he would be a .500 pitcher with nearly a 4.00 ERA through the first two months of the season.
Tim Wakefield: C+
With Matsuzaka’s career in Boston apparently concluded (or close to being finished), his regular spot in the rotation will reportedly be handed off to knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, though I think it should go to Alfredo Aceves.
I know I am beating a dead horse here, but Wakefield is getting older and he has a chronic bad back. Taking a regular turn in the rotation will not benefit either the pitcher or the ballclub… but we all know that he wants to set the mark for most wins in team history.
He threatens to be a sullen influence in the corner of the clubhouse (a la Nomar Garciaparra, in ‘03 and ‘04) if he doesn’t get his way, so it seems the manager is going to appease him by letting him have Dice-K’s slot at the back end of the rotation.
He is 2-1, 4.25, in sporadic starts in the rotation thus far in 2011, so it’s not like he’s been a disaster up to this point, but it remains to be seen what those numbers will look like after the grind of taking a start every fifth day wears on him throughout the summer.
Incomplete: Daisuke Matsuzaka
With his Red Sox career prematurely ended by an elbow injury and his impending Tommy John surgery, I will resist the temptation to dance on his grave.
He made eight appearances (seven starts) in 2011 and posted a 3-3 record, with a 5.30 ERA. It’s possible the elbow injury caused his ineffectiveness… let’s just leave it at that.
The Bullpen
Alfredo Aceves: B+
Aceves has been everything he promised to be when the Red Sox signed him away from the NY Yankees as a free agent back in February. He has appeared in 14 games (3 as the starting pitcher) and has posted a 2-1 record, with a 3.51 ERA.
He is 1-1, 4.50, as a starter (he should have had another win except for a Matt Albers meltdown against the Cubs)… he provided the club with two outstanding starts before getting battered in his last outing.
He has a career mark of 16-2, with a 3.28 ERA, so it would seem we will be in for more of the same from him throughout the summer.
Matt Albers: B-
I am a BIG fan of Aceves, but not of Albers… sorry, Albers fans. It seems that whenever there is an implosion in the Sox bullpen, he’s in the middle of it.
Frankly, I am not sure what the front office saw in a guy that posted an ERA of 4.50+ in four of his five seasons prior to coming to Boston—while playing for non-contending teams in Houston and Baltimore.
I don’t think he has the stuff to pitch meaningful innings for a team that has championship aspirations.
Daniel Bard: B+
In spite of decent results and a B+ grade, Bard has been a disappointment for me through the first two months of 2011.
I gave him a pass after posting a 0-3 mark in April owing to some bad luck he had, but May (1-1, 3.38) was only marginally better and not what I had expected from the guy who is Jonathan Papelbon’s heir apparent.
In my opinion, the next closer needs to post an ERA under 2.00, a WHIP significantly lower than 1.00, and a K-rate that is substantially north of 1.0 / 9 IP… Bard’s ERA is 3.29 (as opposed to the 1.93 mark he posted last season), his WHIP is in the vicinity of 1.00 and his K-rate is barely 1.0.
Maybe he is hampered by heightened (or unrealistic) expectations, but at this point he doesn’t seem ready to be the club’s closer in 2012.
If his performance remains the same throughout the rest of the season, could it set the stage for Pappy to return to the organization next season?
Bobby Jenks: F
He has been brutal up to this point of the season, posting a 7.59 ERA in 13 games. When he went on the DL in early-May, I wondered whether his early-season struggles could be explained by an injury.
But he has allowed four base runners in two innings of work since coming off the DL, so now I am left to wonder whether his ineffectiveness is an indicia that ChiSox manager Ozzie Guillen and ChiSox GM Kenny Williams were on to something when they cut him loose.
It seems plausible the Red Sox front office brought Jenks on board as an insurance policy for 2012, assuming Papelbon would leave via free agency at the end of this year and in case Bard proves incapable of assuming the closer’s duties by next season.
But with Bard struggling to become a lock-down closer and Jenks proving to be completely ineffective, it seems the Red Sox should (at least) entertain the possibility or bringing their resurgent closer back for the next three or four years.
Hideki Okajima: C-
Okajima’s ERA has increased in every season since he first became a member of the Red Sox (from 2.22 in 2007 to 4.50 last season). While his 4.32 ERA thus far was marginally better than last year, it isn’t what you want from your lefty specialist.
His ineffectiveness stems from lack of control (5 BB in 8.1 IP) and bought him a demotion to Pawtucket. He has watched as the Red Sox turned to Rich Hill, traded for Franklin Morales and has now promoted 29-year-old Tommy Hottovy.
Yesterday, he declared he wants to be traded—as opposed to being re-promoted to Boston. Sayonara, Okaji!
Jonathan Papelbon: B+
Pappy had been cruising along pretty well until about a week ago, then he allowed runs in three of four appearances (four runs in 4 IP)… as a result, his ERA increase by more than a run (from 2.29 to 3.42).
Last night, he came into a save situation against Oakland and he was overpowering in registering his 11th save of the season.
While it is a bit disconcerting that he has allowed runs in seven of his 24 appearances, the fact of the matter is that he is 2-0, with 11 saves and only one blown save… and at times he’s looked like the dominant closer you want at the back end of the bullpen.
While it has been assumed this year would be his last season in a Red Sox uniform, his performance (combined with the struggles of Bard and Jenks) makes it likely the front office will have to kick the tires on bringing him back in 2012.
Dan Wheeler: B
Wheeler is another reliever the ballclub signed in the off-season in the hope of improving a bad bullpen, and he is another guy who has been a HUGE disappointment.
Like Jenks, he went on the DL in early-May, raising the possibility his early-season struggles were in part linked to an injury.
He has made four appearances since being reactivated and hasn’t allowed a run… lowering his ERA by more than three-and-a-half runs in the process.
His performance since his return (4.2 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K) leaves me hopeful that he will prove to be highly effective moving forward.
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One of those vaunted New York and Boston rivalries comes to the forefront for New England fans who are reeling over the loss of the Celtics.
We began to wonder what exactly we are likely to see this weekend at the House Next Door to the House That Ruth Built.
If a visitor arrived all the way from Uranus to see what all the space chatter is about, he’d be perplexed to find two normal teams, playing typical baseball.
Well, they are as normal as baseball allows.
An interloper from space would surely notice that Yankee pitchers are fat. Bartolo Colon and Joba the Chamberlain look like Pizza the Hutt from a bad Mel Brooks movie.
And the Red Sox pitchers, like Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard, seem to be married to Jack Spratt’s former wife. They don’t look like they ever had a chance to lick the platter clean.
The splendid splinters on the Red Sox all seem to be pitchers.
Late arriving radio waves to the outer planet may have not told the visitor that Derek Jeter, erstwhile hero of the Yankees for a generation, seems to have fallen and can’t seem to get up.
Home runs seem to come from Mickey Mantle’s grandson, someone named Granderson, no less.
Our extraterrestrial visitor would have heard about the great catchers of the past, like Thurman Munson and Carleton Fisk, but now a couple of guys named Martin and Saltalamacchia seem unable to catch much of anything, not even a break.
Our friendly visitor from another world may have heard reports how in the past every one in the starting lineup on the Red Sox was batting near .300, and now nearly every starter is barely hitting .250.
In the past, all those great hitters meant the team was mired in fifth place. Now, so-so hitting means the team is mired in fifth place.
Einstein was right about space travel, but he had no idea how it might affect a baseball fan. Better to sit on Uranus and think about those champion-caliber Big Bad Bruins.
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Clay Buchholz will take to the mound tonight against the Minnesota Twins and their lethargic offense. Last season, one would have expected him to mow down their lineup, go eight innings and allow just two hits.
This season, however, it is different.
In six starts, he is 2-3 with a 4.81 ERA. Almost every stat is worse than last year and many are the worst of his career. Despite his wonderful 2010 season—which saw him lead the league in ERA-plus, make his first All-Star team and finish sixth in Cy Young voting—there were concerns of a huge regression in 2011.
The main reason was the fact Buchholz had the greatest ERA-xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) differential in the majors last season.
In short, xFIP is used to calculate a pitcher’s future performance, and Clay’s was so much better, it might be difficult for him to replicate it. He is only six starts in, but so far, those fears appear to have been justified.
Unfortunately, the more one looks at Buchholz’s stats, the more worrisome it gets.
His K/9 has fallen each year of his career and is now just 4.54. That will not be helped by the fact his swing-and-miss percentage is 7.2; his previous low was 9.4.
It can be explained by the fact he is less afraid to pitch to contact now (his contact percentage is 83.5, well above the league average) but he is giving up more fly balls than groundouts. Coupled with an above-average 12.2 fly ball/home run percentage, it paints a worrisome picture.
He has already just three home runs shy of last year’s total and is on pace for around 30, which would be more than double the number he has given up in a single season. It is better to not try and strike out 27 batters a game, though, so he is doing the right thing, just not very well.
It’s not just the long ball he is giving up; his WHIP has risen from 1.20 last year to a career-high 1.78. A .313 BABIP (BA on balls in play, which always averages out at .300) indicates that it is not bad luck which is causing his poor performance.
His command is another concern. He is getting first pitch strikes on only 54.5 of batters and is on pace for a career-high in walks.
It is still very early, though, and he will almost certainly turn it around. Look at his last start and you will see a dramatic difference between that and his first five. He may have given up eight hits in 6.2 IP, but that can be chalked up to a blister which clearly bothered him all night.
The impressive thing was that his command and velocity were much improved.
Buchholz will improve. There is no chance he is going to finish the season with an ERA touching 5.00 and a WHIP approaching 2.00.
So far, though, it appears those fears of a step back were justified and perhaps he will not be in the Cy Young running again this year.
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The 2011 Boston Red Sox were supposed to bring balance to the Force, not destroy it. Sadly after a 0-5 start, people are beginning to doubt whether or not this team is the powerhouse that ESPN spent all winter screaming about. Luckily it’s only April, there is still a lot of baseball left to be played. The Sox need help though, help that only one man can provide.
Charlie Sheen
That’s right. When you are losing, who better to turn to than a man who knows all about winning? Duh.
Charlie Sheen is bi winning. He wins here and he wins there. Where do the Red Sox win? Currently nowhere.
Critics call Charlie Sheen an addict. Many may doubt an addict’s ability to help a professional ballclub. But all Charlie Sheen is addicted to winning. The Sox seem to have gone cold turkey on winning.
Last time I checked, tiger blood was not on Major League Baseball’s list of banned substances. Even if it was, there won’t be a Mitchell Report to expose the Sox. George Mitchell had the Sox back the last go around, there’s no doubt he’ll turn a blind eye again.
Give Lester some tiger blood and he’ll be throwing no hitters every fifth day. I dare Ian Kinsler to try and swing at Lester’s fastball after he’s got some winning injected into him. The only bombs he’ll be dropping will be f-bombs in the locker room. Duh.
Tiger blood might help Jason Varitek remember the rules of baseball.
You’re either in Charlie Sheen’s corner or you’re with the trolls. Where do the Sox stand right now? 0-5. Looks like they’re with the trolls right now. The Baltimore Orioles are 4-1, looking much more Sheenish than the Sox. Is Red Sox Nation okay with that?
It is not too late for the Sox to get out of the troll’s corner. As Charlie Sheen said, “I’m so tired of pretending my life isn’t perfect and bitching and just winning every second and I’m not perfect and bitchin’.” I for one am tired of pretending the Red Sox aren’t perfect and winning every game. Enough’s enough.
Let the Red Sox and Charlie Sheen sit at the same dinner table and together embrace and feast on the bones of trolls.
One word can save the Sox and their savior Sheen has been saying it for weeks. Winning.
Duh.
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The “Texas Red Sox Massacre” of this past weekend was not the opening series that Red Sox fans had dreamed about since December. Buchholz surrendered almost half as many home runs as he did all of last season, Lester made it clear that he knows which month this is and Lackey’s ERA is now sitting just north of 22. The bullpen wasn’t much better, as every reliever pitched and only Reyes, Albers, and Jenks failed to surrender a run. Still, serious concerns at this point are unnecessary- the team is bound to win at least a game before the season is out.
In all seriousness, though (opening series notwithstanding) the Red Sox look loaded. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez make the lineup borderline ridiculous, and GM Theo Epstein also significantly improved on last season’s greatest weakness, the bullpen. But, as with any team, some questions linger. Here are five entities on whom the team is, to one degree or another, crossing its fingers.
When Josh Beckett was traded to the Boston Red Sox in 2006, it was assumed he would be an Cy Young candidate and an ace for years to come. He was 25, an absolute hoss, and seemingly the reincarnation of Roger Clemens: a hard-throwing intimidator and strikeout king without fear.
And for the most part, he’s worked out for the BoSox just fine. He has pitched well—maybe not as consistently as Boston wanted—but he did lead the Red Sox to a Series victory in 2007, where he pitched lights out. His 2007 postseason: 4-0 with an ERA around 1.6.
Fast forward to now. Josh Beckett is no longer the ace of the Red Sox staff—Jon Lester is. He’s not the No. 2 pitcher either—Clay Buchholz is. In fact, Beckett is the No. 4 pitcher in the Red Sox rotation and is being jiggered by Terry Francona to make sure he starts the season against the Indians and not against the Yankees and Rangers.
Whoa…what’s happened to Beckett? Can he not even pitch to the Rangers without Red Sox Nation quaking in their caps? What’s wrong?
Well, checking the Fangraphs.com site, we see that Beckett has only lost only a touch off his mph, so arm strength is not the issue. No, looking further at the numbers, what the trouble seems to be is Beckett’s inability to spot his pitches like he used to. His curveball, once rock-reliable has lost movement and has earned a -2.1 wCB. His fastball, formerly his bread-and-butter pitch, has seemingly abandoned the lower half of the zone. Now up in the strike zone, Beckett’s wFB has plummeted and as a result, Beckett is relying more on his two-seamer and cutter to try to get better movement on his pitches.
It hasn’t worked. Contact against his pitches (not down in the zone anymore) is way up from where it used to be. Walks are also up to a career high for Beckett. Most telling, perhaps, is his swStrk (strikes swung on and missed) which is an all-time low. In short, he’s putting fatter pitches nice and up in the zone.
What’s also interesting to note is his change-up has actually gained almost three mph. So not only is his fastball slowing a bit, his change is speeding up. What the heck? How does that happen?
Well, last May, Red Sox manager Terry Francona expressed a concern with Beckett’s repeatable mechanics. According to the massblog.com of last May 29th:
“Josh Beckett’s return from the disabled list hit a roadblock yesterday after the Red Sox became concerned with the pitcher’s inability to repeat his delivery in a side session where he threw 20-25 pitches. Manager Terry Francona…said that Beckett was changing arm angles on his deliveries and that his inability to remain consistent is a cause for concern.”
Also, early last season, in the Boston Globe, (former) pitching coach John Farrell said:
“An additional side with Josh to reinforce, particularly out of the stretch, him getting back to a proper balance point and not getting his delivery too spread out to where he loses a downhill plane to his fastball. When he gets into a proper position, his curveball is less readable by an opposing hitter. Part of this is a constant use of the slide step that can cause some of the habits that we’re trying to recorrect here.”
If Beckett’s fastball isn’t really losing all that much mph, but batters are hitting him harder and he’s walking more per nine IP, logic would dictate that Farrell and Francona are right and that Beckett’s mechanics are fried, and he can’t locate like he used to. Seemingly this started somewhere in late 2009, when Beckett’s ERA ballooned from a mid-August low of 3.10 to a season’s end of 3.86 with a number of bad performances. Former pitching coach Farrell is quoted as saying on seacoastonline.com in late August after Beckett gave up 15 runs in 13.1 IP in 2 starts:
“(Poor) location of his pitches has caused the numbers to be where they are. It’s been a matter of missing with some fastballs up in the strike zone or a curveball that hasn’t had the same finish.” … And, Farrell added, that is easily correctable.
“For the majority of the season, he’s been so dominant in the bottom of the strike zone,” Farrell said. “Now, every effort is being made to get him down in the zone again. … But a little tidying of Beckett’s mechanics could produce a dramatic turnaround.
“There may be some times when maybe some added effort or an attempt to get some added velocity has caused him to get a little spread out (with his delivery) and caused him to throw the baseball on a little bit more of a flat plane rather than the downward angle that all pitchers need.”
For Yankee fans, the question is clearly, “Can Josh Beckett return to dominance?” Early signs are…not yet. Despite even more work on mechanics (new pitching coach Curt Young is shortening Beckett’s stride in an effort to get him to repeat his delivery more easily), spring training has been a repeat of last year, with nice flashes of hard heat and a sharp curve, then a terrible inning where he can’t seemingly get anyone out. So far, Beckett has the 5.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.4.
Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are an awesome No. 1 and 2. John Lackey had a so-so 2010 and at age 32, it’s possible, but not guaranteed that he will be better in 2011, though most projections figure he will be somewhat better. In any event it’s questionable that Lackey will be as dominant as he used to be pitching to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in tiny Fenway Park. And Dice-K, minus a great 2008 season, has been a disappointment.
The key is Beckett. If he returns to form, the Red Sox have a dominant starting three. And a dominant starting three pretty much ensures you’ll win a short playoff series. If Beckett doesn’t return to form, however…well then, the Red Sox blew a sack full of money on a pitcher who’s busted.
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