Kuzul

Picking out quality starting pitching for your fantasy baseball team can be a fickle enterprise, given how difficult it is to project how well any given MLB hurler will fare from year to year.

Not to mention how few and far between aces tend to be.

Now, I could easily tell you to go out and drop your auction dollars/draft picks on guys like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver and James Shields, but those guys are stuck in tough divisions amidst offenses that could blast them on any given night.

Instead, stick with these four guys, who should be comfortable cranking up the heat—and racking up quality starts—against weak competition this season.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

Yeah, okay, so maybe recommending that you pick up the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner and MVP isn’t much of a stretch, especially since he led the majors in quality starts with 28.

And sure, there’s a fair risk that after such a spectacular season in 2011 Justin Verlander could regress toward the mean of his career, as most projections suggest he will.

Even so, at the age of 29, Verlander should still have some elite years left in his electric arm and should find himself pitching comfortably from ahead more often than not in a so-so AL Central, with the likes of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder providing him ample run support every time out. 

Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians

If you’re looking for a bit of a risky value pick in the AL Central, I offer you Justin Masterson.

The 26-year-old righty had a breakout year for the Indians in 2011, piling up 22 quality starts and career bests in earned-run average (3.21), fielding-independent pitching (3.28) and wins (12).

Of course, there’s reason to worry that Masterson might fall to the back of the pack, considering his low strikeout rate (7.11 K/9 career) and penchant for free passes (3.49 BB/9 career), along with his lack of a prior track record.

But, then again, Masterson might just be a late bloomer and at his age he should be approaching his pitching prime. Hence, if you can master Masterson for a reasonable sum, you’d be well advised to do so.

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

The only place in baseball better for pitchers than the AL Central is the National League West, a division in which the only half-decent offense—that of the Arizona Diamondbacks—happens to be replete with free swingers.

So it should come as no surprise that a power pitcher like San Francisco’s Matt Cain should be atop your fantasy wish list. Cain finished the 2011 season with an NL-best 26 quality starts, even though his strikeout rate (7.27 K/9) wasn’t exactly anything to write home about.

Cain’s secret to success? Limiting home runs—he gave up just 0.37 of ’em per nine innings.

It certainly helps Cain’s case that he plays in the cavernous AT&T Park and will be playing the season as a 27-year-old continuing to dominate alongside Tim Lincecum in the Giants’ rotation. Of course, the wins may be hard to come by behind San Fran’s so-so offense.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Why not bring this bit full circle with Cain’s most able challenger in the NL West, Clayton Kershaw?

What’s not to like about Kersh? He just turned 24, won the NL Cy Young last season after claiming the league’s Triple Crown of pitching, and he picked up 25 quality starts in 2011.

Oh, and he’s fanned better than nine betters per nine innings during his career.

And like Cain, he pitches in the NL West, the most offensively inept division in all of baseball, and in one of the great pitchers’ parks in the Big Leagues.

True, the Dodgers offense is little more than Matt Kemp and the Kempettes, but that shouldn’t affect Clay’s performance on the mound too much.

Not after picking up 21 wins with middling run support last year.

Follow @J0shMart1n

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Baseball perfection is one of the most exciting, rare and unpredictable feats in all of sports. Yet here I am trying to predict who will hurl the next ultimate gem.

The last time we saw one, Roy Halladay pulled it off in a 1-0 victory over the then Florida Marlins in May of 2010. The fact that Halladay has done it so recently makes him an automatic candidate to pull it again, never mind the postseason no-no he threw that same year.

If Halladay does indeed throw another perfect game, he would make history in more than one way. He would become the only man in baseball history to be perfect more than once.

That puts into perspective just how rare this is. Since 1922, there have only been 15 thrown, and only 20 in the game’s history.

I did some deep digging, because that is just what I love to do, and I found a few interesting trends. The average age of the past 15 pitchers to throw a perfect game is 30. They have had an average of nine years MLB experience and a WHIP of 1.272 the previous season.

The most common season for a pitcher to throw a perfect game has been a player’s fourth season. Four players threw their masterpiece in their fourth year—most recently Dallas Braden of the Oakland A’s.

Older pitchers haven’t been shut out either, as four pitchers at 35 years old or older have accomplished the feat. Randy Johnson threw his at 40, in his 18th season.

While there aren’t any players that hit each of those numbers and categories exactly, there are a few players that come fairly close.

In light of these findings, as well as a few other fruits of my research, I’ve compiled a list of 20 pitchers that have the best shot at throwing the next perfect game.

I’ve grouped the players into four different categories. Behold the slideshow:

Begin Slideshow

Clayton Kershaw won the 2012 NL Cy Young Award on Wednesday, a fact you surely know unless you’ve been on the moon or taking a Rip Van Winkle-like nap for the last couple of days. 

But there are things about Clayton Kershaw that you may have thought you knew, or never knew at all.

1. Kershaw attended high school with Detroit Lions Quarterback Matthew Stafford at Highland Park High School in Dallas, Texas. Other famous alumni from the school include Angie Harmon, Jayne Mansfield, Morgan Fairchild, Aaron Spelling, Doak Walker, Bobby Layne, Kyle Rote, Jr. and Chris Young.

Oh, and because every school seems to have one, would-be President Reagan assassin, John Hinckley, Jr.

2. In a high school playoff game against Arlington Martin High School, Kershaw threw an all-strikeout perfect game.

3. Following a Christian mission trip to Africa, Kershaw and his wife, Ellen, are building an orphanage in Zambia. The couple will also release a children’s book in January 2012 about their life since middle school and the effect the trip to Africa has had on their lives.

4. In high school Kershaw played on a traveling baseball team, the Dallas Tigers, with Los Angeles Angels Closer Jordan Walden, Dodgers top relief prospect Shawn Tolleson and the aforementioned Matthew Stafford.

5. Kershaw is the great-nephew of the astronomer that discovered Pluto, Clyde Tombaugh. Tombaugh was also keenly interested in UFOs, which would seem to make him a better uncle for former MLB player Bill “Spaceman” Lee. 

Clayton Kershaw is as talented a young pitcher as the Dodgers have had in their rotation in a generation. It also appears from his accomplishments to date that Kershaw is not only an accomplished athlete, he’s a remarkable young man.

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Keeper leagues add an entirely new element to fantasy baseball.

They put you even deeper into the position of a major league GM, forcing you to balance risk and reward. Anyone who has been successful in these leagues will tell you that there are three major factors in gauging the value of a player as a keeper—production, age and potential.  

These five guys give you all that and more.

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Marro

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Each year, the talent that enters Major League Baseball seems to get younger.  After all, we are on the verge of seeing a player break into the majors who is barely old enough to vote for the President of the United States.

This is great news for the fans who get to see a young talent pool of players who should be around for a very long time.

Here is a list of the top 25 pitchers under age 25 who should anchor major league pitching staffs for the next 10 to 15 years.

Begin Slideshow

Before the 2011 season began in LA, there were many questions about this year’s Dodger squad. The 2010 campaign was a forgettable season in many ways, and there was surely reason to think that this year’s team may not be any better.

But for the optimistic fan, there was the hope that 2011 would be a rebound year if a couple of guys could build on their potential. So far Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp have been doing just that, and actually exceeding expectations early on in this young season.

Matt Kemp won the Gold Glove in 2009 and was widely praised as one of the biggest up-and-coming superstars in the National League.

Then in 2010, he had a much-publicized dating relationship with megastar Rihanna, and a perceived lack of focus on baseball. His batting average dropped tremendously, his power numbers came in spurts, but couldn’t be counted on with any kind of consistency. He was publicly called out for his effort by GM Ned Colletti. Nobody knew quite what to expect out of him coming into this new season.

Clayton Kershaw, on the other hand, really started to fulfill his potential last year. After an April in which he walked 22 batters in 29 innings, he would go on to only walk another 59 over his final 175 innings. In September of 2010 he had an ERA of 2.38 with a WHIP of 0.85. He finished the season with 13 wins and considered the ace of the staff. Kershaw entered this year as the Opening Day starter.

With the departure of recently shamed and retired Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers’ inability to land a slugger in the offseason, most people figured that Kemp would have to regain his 2009 form for the Dodgers to succeed.

Early on, Kemp is looking like a much better player that the one fans were expecting (thank you, Davey Lopes). He is hitting over .400 and creating havoc on the base paths like no Dodger in recent history. 

After Monday’s win against the Giants, he is up to a perfect seven-for-seven stealing bases. He has scored in seven of the team’s 10 games. The team seems to be following Matt Kemp’s lead more than anyone else and he seems to be thriving in the spotlight, rather than trying to shy away.

Kershaw, meanwhile, went out on Monday and threw another great game against the Giants. He had to throw a lot of pitches (117, to be exact), but walked only two batters and did not surrender a run to earn his second win against the rivals from the bay.

In a game in which he battled against the count, he showed a rare maturity for a young pitcher. He showed once again why he is considered the ace despite the fact that he is the team’s youngest starter.

The season is still very young. Ten games do not necessarily provide the best gauge for how a club will perform all year. And a record of 6-4 is nothing to get all that excited about, but with the leadership of two maturing players the Dodgers have plenty of reason to be optimistic.

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The Giants did not expect to start their trek to a repeat title like this.

The Giants hit a road block on Thursday’s opening day at Dodger Stadium, kicking the ball around in the sixth inning.

Miguel Tejada botched a throw to second with a runner at first with one out, followed by a rare Posey throwing error with the bases loaded. Just nanoseconds before, Posey made a great save on a pitch by Lincecum in the dirt.

The Dodgers drew first blood in the game on the error.

As Posey threw the ball, the runner at third, Matt Kemp, appeared to already be back on the base.

“I thought he was off the base,” Posey said after the game. “I would not have thrown it if I thought he wasn’t.”

To complicate matters further for the Giants, Clayton Kershaw was dominant for the Dodgers. In seven shutout innings of work, Kershaw held the Giants to four hits and one walk, including nine strikeouts.

Cleanup hitter Buster Posey was one of the few to get something going against Kershaw, finishing the night one for four, but with two strikeouts.

“He did a good job of moving the ball around and mixing up some off-speed pitches,” Posey said of Kershaw.

The Giants seemed to struggle in all facets of the game in their three-error debacle—except for pitching. Tim Lincecum was nearly as fantastic as Kershaw, but earned a tough loss, pitching seven strong innings of unearned one-run ball.

The Dodgers tacked on another run in the eighth inning on a James Loney RBI double.

The Giants avoided embarrassment by scoring in the ninth off Jonathan Broxton. Burrell lined a screamer over the left field wall, reminiscent to his game-winning home run off Jonathan Broxton last July.

Brandon Belt had a game to remember. In his first at bat, he accomplished an important milestone—his first major league hit, an infield single.

Belt had impressive at-bats throughout his 1-for-3 night, including a walk off Clayton Kershaw.

Although he made the last out of the game on a soft line drive to Uribe, Belt battled Broxton till the end.

Starter Tim Lincecum shrugged the loss off as best he could.

“Games like this are going to happen,” Lincecum said. “Hopefully, we’ll get them tomorrow.”

One noticeable improvement was the defensive play of Pablo Sandoval. During the sloppy sixth inning, Sandoval shined, as he saved two runs with a diving play on a line drive to his left. Runners were on second and third at the time.

The good news for the Giants? Tomorrow is a new month.

WP: Clayton Kershaw (1-0), LP: Tim Lincecum (0-1), Broxton (S, 1)

HR: Pat Burrell (1, 9th inning off Broxton)

My Thoughts

Aside from the errors in the sixth inning, the Giants cannot expect to win many games by scoring two runs. Clayton Kershaw is a great pitcher, but some questionable at-bats hindered their chance at mounting a rally.

An at-bat of note was Andres Torres’ eighth inning plate appearance. Hong-Chih Kuo threw six straight balls to start the eighth inning, but Torres swung at what appeared to be ball three.

Torres would go on to have a good, long at-bat and line out to Andre Ethier in right field, but Torres probably should have taken a strike there with Kuo struggling with his control. If he takes the 2-0 pitch, the count might be 3-0 (the pitch was borderline) and who knows what happens?

Although Belt did not get the ball out of the infield, his approach was good. In the fifth inning, Belt somehow laid off Kershaw’s two-strike off-speed pitches and worked out a walk. Even his last at-bat off Broxton was a two-strike battle, although it was a line drive out to third base.

A questionable defensive miscue came from Buster Posey in the defensive nightmare sixth inning.

After Posey made an amazing block to keep the runner at third, there was no reason to throw the ball. The runner at third, Kemp, was standing on the base as Posey fired an errant throw to third.

The bottom line is the Giants did not get it done offensively or defensively. Scoring one run will not win many ball games.

Regardless of the errors, the Giants gave up few enough runs to win. Every team makes mistakes, but the good teams make up for those errors and pick up their teammates who caused the blunders.

The Giants have to do what they did last year to win. That is to catch the balls they could get to, get timely hits, and have fun.

The Giants will try to rebound tomorrow against the Dodgers at 7:10 p.m. from Dodger Stadium. Jonathan Sanchez will make his 2011 debut against Chad Billingsley.

Follow me on twitter @vintalkingiants

This article was featured on the blog Talking Giants Baseball

Questions or comments? E-mail my blog mailbag at vc4re@yahoo.com. Your questions may be answered on my blog.

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After an amazing 2010 season last year, which included unforgettable moments like Armando Gallaraga’s near perfect game, Jose Bautista ripping a league-high 54 Homers, Roy Halladay’s playoff no-hitter and a perfect Mother’s Day for Dallas Braden, fans everywhere are anxiously awaiting 2011, which they hope will be even more special.  

Begin Slideshow

Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers 2006 first-round draft pick, has slowly been gaining steam since making his Major League debut in 2008.  He’s been highly regarded since the day he first donned a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform, but his 2010 campaign showed us just how good he could be:

13 Wins
204.1 Innings
2.91 ERA
1.18 WHIP
212 Strikeouts (9.34 K/9)
81 Walks (3.57 BB/9)
.275 BABIP

There really is little not to like from those numbers, isn’t there?  There also is nothing overly unrealistic about them either.  The BABIP is not overly lucky.  He posted a strand rate of 76.2 percent, right along the lines of his career mark of 76.5 percent. 

Where he has vastly improved since making his debut is in his walk rate:

• 2008 – 4.35 BB/9
• 2009 – 4.79 BB/9
• 2010 – 3.57 BB/9

Is he able to replicate, if not better, that number is what will ultimately determine his overall success in 2011.  First of all, by limiting the walks, he was able to work deeper into games.  In 2009 he threw 5.63 innings per start, leading to just eight wins.  In 2010 he threw 6.38 innings per start, and you could see the increase in his wins from the statistics above.

The deeper a starting pitcher can go into games, the more opportunity he is going to have for wins.  There just is no way around that, because you never know exactly what your bullpen is going to do.  One would have thought Jonathan Broxton would’ve been able to hold on to just about every lead he was handed, but that wasn’t the case in ’10.  The more outs you can get yourself, the more you put your fate into your own hands.

The drop in the walk rate also allows him to post a potentially elite WHIP.  He was just outside the Top 20 in 2010 and, with his strikeout rate, there is no reason to think that he can’t repeat that type of performance again as long as he maintains the walk rate.  If he can take a step forward, he is going to be among the best in the league.

What is interesting to note is that as his strikeouts fell during the year, his walk rate improved.  In the first half of the season he had a K/9 of 10.28, but a BB/9 of 4.01.  In the second half he had a K/9 of 8.22, but a BB/9 of 3.03.

Is there any conclusion we can draw from this?  Do we think Kershaw is going to focus on pounding the strike zone, lowering his strikeout rate in favor of walking fewer batters? 

It’s something to watch, but it is hard to imagine Kershaw not being among the elite strikeout artists in the game.  If he can maintain that, along with the impeccable second half control, the sky truly is the limit.

Let’s take a look at what I am projecting for him in 2011:

200.0 IP, 16 W, 2.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 211 K (9.50 K/9), 80 BB (3.60 BB/9)

He’s already proven that he has the stuff to be a Top 10 pitcher, making him a tremendous selection on draft day.

What are your thoughts of Kershaw?  Can he be a Top 10 pitcher in 2011?  What are the chances of that happening?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Barmes, Clint
• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Drew, Stephen
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hudson, Tim
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Uggla, Dan
• Morrow, Brandon
• Phillips, Brandon
• Reyes, Jose
• Reynolds, Mark
• Rios, Alex
• Sanchez, Gaby
• Stanton, Mike
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Wieters, Matt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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In our newest debate we compare 2009 stud Zack Greinke (ranked 7 in our 2011 Fantasy Baseball Kit) vs the Los Angeles strikeout machine Clayton Kershaw (ranked 12).

The case for drafting Greinke

In 2010 Zack Greinke hit a speed bump on his rise as one of the top pitchers in the game.  A new park, new league, and run support will all add up to fantasy fortune.  Look for Greinke to regain his composure this season and get back on track with his Cy Young capabilities.

When analyzing Greinke’s 2010 season you can see he suffered partially from his own mistakes.  However, the majority of his misfortune stems from poor defense, and poor run support.  

Last year, Greinke’s DIPS (Defense Independent ERA) was 3.45, a large drop from his ERA of 4.17.  By judging him based on his DIPS, taking into account his poor defensive supporting cast, Greinke would rank seventh overall, yet he ranked 28th.  

Greinke’s change of scenery this season won’t move him to the best fielding team in the league, but it will move him to a team ranked ten spots higher than the 25th ranked Kansas City defense.  This is a good jump but doesn’t come close to the offensive threat that will be on his side for a change.

Last season Greinke was given average runs per game in RS (Runs Support) by the anemic Royals offense.  Those numbers were bad enough to rank fifth lowest per start in the league.  Greinke’s horrible run support has nowhere to go but up when he has batters like Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Richie Weeks supporting him.

Making a decision between Greinke and Clayton Kershaw could at first seem like splitting hairs.  However, there are a few caveats that should be noted when considering picking Kershaw.  

First, Kerhsaw has a history of a high walk-rate and low innings-per start rate.  Throughout his career he has averaged 4.2 BB per 9 innings and a paltry 5.9 innings per game started.  

Kershaw can put up good numbers but one of his weaknesses is his inefficiency in pitch count.  For his career he averages 99 pitches per started games, in other words 99 pitches per 5.9 innings.  This puts him at a disadvantage for wins and for Quality Starts if your league measures that statistic.  

Clayton also got somewhat lucky last year, maintaining a substantially low .279 BABIP for the season. 

When it comes down to it, either pitcher is worthy of playing on my fantasy team.  Both pitchers on my team would be a dream come true honestly.  Nevertheless, if it’s time to make a decision with a minute on the clock, knowing this might be the difference between fantasy gold and bust.

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by James Bryce

The case for drafting Kershaw

In the past three seasons, Clayton Kershaw went from stud prospect to ace quicker than anyone in recent memory.  Last season Kershaw really seemed to figure out pitching in the big leagues. Kershaw added a slider to his arsenal, to complement his powerful fastball and his monster curve that has been given the marquee “Public Enemy Number One” by Hall of Fame Dodger announcer Vin Scully. The results were impressive with 13 wins and 212 strikeouts. 

Kershaw is still young and in today’s Major League Baseball that means limitations for young pitchers. An encouraging sign for Kershaw has been his increase in workload over his young career. 

In his first season in Chavez Ravine he only pitched 107.2 innings but tallied an impressive 8.4 K/9. His second season in the show generated even better numbers with Kershaw logging 171 innings pitched with a 9.7 K/9. Last season was Kershaw’s first as the ace of the Dodgers and he stepped up by pitching 204.1 innings with a 9.3 K/9.  

Many fantasy baseball pitchers are selected solely based on strikeouts, and wins. Fantasy owners tend to forget the less sexy but all important WHIP category. 

Kershaw has been an axe man chopping his WHIP bit by bit each season. In his first season in Dodger blue Kershaw’s WHIP was a respectable 1.495. In his second season Kershaw saw his BB/9 jump from 4.3 in 2008 to 4.8 in 2009. This would seem like bad news for a young pitchers WHIP. however, it actually decreased to 1.228.  

In 2010 Kershaw set career highs in wins, strikeouts, games started, innings pitched, and WHIP. His 1.179 WHIP was good enough for 24th in MLB. Kershaw was one of three pitchers under 24 to be in the top 25 in WHIP in the league. The others are Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and San Diego’s Mat Latos.  

The Dodger flamethrower will be all of 23 years of age this season, his fourth in the big leagues. Clayton is coming in the clear ace of the Dodger rotation and pitching his home games in a pitcher friendly ballpark makes him a safe bet to improve the numbers on the back of his baseball card. Fantasy owners will be happy taking a pitcher of Kershaw’s caliber. 

Written exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com by JJ Omar

See original article here

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