Kuzul

Some 25 years after he retired from the game, I saw the Great One enter a baseball locker room and like an apparition, dissolve and disappear behind a shuttered door. When he reemerged—looking nearly the same as he did when he threw his last pitch for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1966—Sandy Koufax glided resplendently onto a baseball field, his iconic number 32 majestically emblazoned on his back, like righteous wings.

On that late February day in 1991, I was part of a throng of boomer worshippers attending a Dodgers Adult Camp in Vero Beach, Fla. When Koufax appeared we bowed, gathered around, and reverently gawked as he mingled and posed for photos. He gave a brief talk on the fine points of pitching—something akin to Da Vinci giving a brief talk on the fine points of painting—and then was gone, vanishing back behind the shuttered door and back to his Salingeresque-reclusive ways.

Through the years little has changed in the debate as to who was—or is—the supreme left handed pitcher in the game; for most of us, it has always been Koufax, then and now.

But the paradigm may be shifting a bit as of late; there may be small, growing fissures in the argument as to who is better, who is the greatest, and which southpaw would you rather have on your team: Sandy Koufax or the newcomer—a stylish, soon-to-be 26-year-old with watertight mechanics named Clayton Kershaw.

Armed at an early age with a prodigious curveball and this spring with the largest contract ever awarded a pitcher, for now Kershaw is the freshly anointed one. And as blasphemous as it may be, there are whispers by some who dare say he will eclipse the memory of Sandy Koufax as the greatest pitcher—left-hander or right-hander—in the history of the Los Angeles Dodgers, if not all of baseball.

A cursory glance at statistics—baseball’s omnipresent life thread of measurement and information—will show that Kershaw is indeed far ahead of Koufax at this stage of their careers after just six years in the major leagues. Entering the 2014 season, Kershaw’s overall record is 77-46, a sterling, eye-popping winning percentage of .626.

Koufax? After six seasons he was barely hanging on, languishing as a reliever and infrequent spot starter. When he was signed as a “bonus baby” in 1954 by the Brooklyn Dodgers and following the team’s move west, Koufax’s overall record was a derisory 37-42 with an ERA that ballooned to 4.48 in 1958. But he had shown flashes of brilliance, flashes of something incredibly electrifying and the team’s manager Walter Alston and general manager Buzzie Bavasi stuck with him, believing if his untamed left arm could ever find the strike zone, they would have something very special.

Kershaw? There have never been doubts or hesitations. Starting with the remark prominently attributed to former manager Joe Torre back in 2008 that the then-19-year-old fireballer “reminds me of Koufax,” Kershaw has had—fairly or unfairly—the shroud of greatness hanging around his neck like a noose.

Not so with the young Koufax, who didn’t begin his ascension until his breakout 1961 season when he went 18-13 with a league-leading and major league record of 269 strikeouts. Overall he fashioned a remarkable winning percentage of .655, in spite of his poor record prior to ’61. For six seasons—1961 through 1966—baseball had seen nothing like him, nothing close to the magic of his curve or the brilliance blaze of his fastball. His numbers during that stretch are beyond extraordinary, beyond incredible. Simply put, Koufax grew from below mediocre at best early in his career, to possibly the most overpowering pitcher, ever.

When he was forced to retire at the zenith of achievement because of his hexed arthritic left elbow—at just age 31—Koufax left a legacy few thought could ever be matched. Significantly, too, he left a frustrating, arcane question: what if? What if he had been able to pitch one, two, three or more seasons and put up similar incomparable numbers?

No one knows what could have been. We’re left only with a meteoric glimpse at genuine greatness, a baseball deity that has been unequaled. But this, we do know: very few pitchers dodge the injury plague—including, obviously, Koufax. And that brings us back to Clayton Kershaw.

Baseball’s history confirms how dicey it is for pitching phenoms to continue awe-inspiring success trajectories when just starting out; the list of once-heralded hurlers forced from the game early because of injury is frightening in its totality, scary in its reality. So the stormy, dark cloud of injury always hovers and Kershaw’s growing legion of admirers are faced with ominous questions:

• With his extraordinary mechanics, described by many pitching gurus as “nearly flawless,” can Kershaw sustain his astonishing early success and avoid injury, long-term?
• Can he add to his already impressive career that includes two Cy Young awards (and a second place in 2012), just one shy of Koufax himself?
• Can he stay focused and maintain a strict discipline?

Here’s the kicker for those jumping on the Kershaw band wagon: No matter how glittering his numbers, no matter how many Cy Young plaques may hang on his wall, until Clayton Kershaw wins a World Series he will always lag behind the three rings Sandy Koufax can boast.

Mythical or not, the Koufax aura sets an almost impossible standard. But if the conjectural heir apparent can match or surpass Koufax in championship wins and maintain a semblance of his early success, then the coronation and crowning of a new Great One can begin.

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It’s no secret that the Los Angeles Dodgers have made the cash-strapped days of the Frank McCourt era a distant memory. As if the baseball world needed another reminder, the team recently made its superstar pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, the highest-paid player in the history of the sport.

His seven-year, $250 million contract extension, first reported by ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne, even includes an opt-out clause after five years. This means that Kershaw could potentially be in line for an even richer deal if he decides to opt out as a 30-year-old in 2018.

Of course, a deal this lengthy and this expensive does not come without risk. The Dodgers are taking a big gamble, but for a soon-to-be 26-year-old pitcher who has won two out of the last three Cy Young Awards and has never landed on the disabled list, it’s a move they had to make.

As the dust settles and the 2014 season approaches, here are three bold predictions for Kershaw’s record-setting deal:

1. Clayton Kershaw will win at least two more Cy Young Awards

Baseball teams only hand out seven-year, $250 million extensions to the best pitchers on the planet, and Kershaw happens to be the best pitcher on the planet. 

The 2011 and 2013 Cy Young Award winner should have also received the honor in 2012, but the baseball world decided to champion the R.A. Dickey feel-good story, despite Kershaw compiling a lower ERA and WHIP than Dickey. Perhaps Dickey received the award because his knuckleball was able to strike out 230 batters, while Kershaw only fanned 229.

In any event, Kershaw responded to his snub by posting a 1.83 ERA in 2013, the league’s lowest since Pedro Martinez’s 1.74 in 2000.

Besides a nonexistent injury history, the scary part is that Kershaw won’t turn 26 until March.

Most pitchers are only entering their prime at this age. Kershaw is already there.

And with so much money invested in their prized southpaw, the Dodgers will be sure to continue their responsible usage of Kershaw. He has just five career starts of 120 or more pitches.

If Kershaw progresses at this rate, it won’t be a question of whether or not he wins multiple Cy Young Awards during the next few seasons. It will be a question of how many.

2. Clayton Kershaw will help the Dodgers win the World Series

Every Dodgers fan remembers how last season ended.

Kershaw, the team’s most reliable pitcher, shockingly imploded in the biggest game of his life. If Dodgers fans thought it was rough, imagine how Kershaw has felt these past few months.

His last memory of the 2013 season was walking off the field as the St. Louis Cardinals were piling onto what would end up being a 9-0 shellacking to end the Dodgers’ playoff run.

Albeit $250 million probably washed some of the bad taste from his mouth, but a competitor like Kershaw doesn’t forget the bad. (See: Dickey 2012)

He knows the deep-pocketed Guggenheim ownership group has gone all in to put a legitimate contender on the field. And with most of the key pieces locked in for the next few seasons, a championship is well within reach. The team proved its potential last season, coming within two wins of its first World Series appearance in 25 years.

If the Dodgers find themselves in another win-or-go-home game come October, you can bet Kershaw will be on the mound, eager to live up to the hefty expectations placed upon his shoulders with the new extension.

And you can bet he won’t let the season end prematurely on his watch again. Instead of sitting in the dugout watching another team celebrate at his expense, it will be Kershaw doing the dancing with his teammates sooner rather than later.

3. Kershaw will opt out in 2018

Assuming the first two predictions come true, Kershaw will enter the 2018 season with at least four Cy Young Awards and at least one World Series ring by the age of 30.

That’s the kind of resume that launches pitchers into the Hall of Fame at the end of their careers.

For Kershaw, it’ll be the kind of resume that he can use to to test the free-agent market, which would almost certainly assure him an even richer contract—if that’s even possible.

The opt-out clause after five years was an essential part of the deal for Kershaw, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

The Dodgers, fresh off finalizing a multi-billion-dollar television deal, should have no problem outbidding other suitors for the Texas native’s prized left arm in the event that he opts out in 2018.

For Kershaw, it’s a win-win situation.

For the Dodgers, it’s a win-win intuition. 

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With the candidates for the American League MVP Award essentially determined already (Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera), let’s turn our attention to the National League. The award is wide open this year with no clear favorite standing out.

Who will claim 2014’s National League Most Valuable Player Award? You can be sure it will be one of these players.

All statistics are courtesy of baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com, unless otherwise noted.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers might be big spenders, but they haven’t made any major signings so far this offseason.

The four-year, $28 million pact with Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero still stands as the Dodgers’ biggest signing this winter, while the team has also inked right-hander Dan Haren to a one-year, $10 million deal.

So that’s $38 million spent on free agents, just a drop in the bucket for the new ownership group led by Magic Johnson and Stan Kasten, who bought the team for a record $2 billion in 2012.

With the team also listening to offers to unload the big contracts of one of their veteran outfielders like Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, via Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times, are the Dodgers saving up to re-sign Clayton Kershaw?

The southpaw already has two Cy Young Awards to his name at the age of 25 and looks like he’s only getting better. He’s led the National League in ERA and WHIP each of the past three seasons, including his dominant 2013 campaign when he finished 16-9 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and an NL-best 232 strikeouts.

This marks the final offseason that Kershaw is eligible for arbitration, as he is set to hit free agency following the 2014 campaign. That is, of course, if the Dodgers cannot ink him to an extension first.

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, the Dodgers approached Kershaw about a long-term deal in the neighborhood of $300 million that would be the biggest in MLB history, barring an unprecedented contract for free-agent Robinson Cano this offseason.

Olney also reported that Kershaw wasn’t keen on negotiating a deal during the season, but that there was enough discussion to believe that an extension could be agreed upon this winter.

In early November, though, Kershaw sounded like a man who wanted to test his value on the open market when Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times asked him about the prospect of free agency.

“I think any player, that’s the reward of baseball, to make it to that point,” Kershaw told Hernandez. “I think any player gets curious when you get close, for sure.”

It would be wise for Kershaw to start a bidding war for his services, but it would also be hard for anyone to turn down $300 million.

As Matthew Pouliot of NBC’s Hardball Talk noted, the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees would be two teams that have spending room next winter and would be willing to top $30 million annually to sign Kershaw.

So what exactly is he worth?

Spotrac.com did a contract comparison of four of Kershaw‘s contemporaries that have recently signed big deals: Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels and CC Sabathia. According to Spotrac, the average deal between that quartet was eight years, $195 million.

But with baseball revenues at record levels and Kershaw having such unprecedented success at a young age, this seems like a perfect storm for the $300 million contract barrier to be broken.

The Dodgers have already made sizeable commitments to their rotation, signing Zack Greinke to a six-year, $147 million deal last year and then making a $61 million commitment to Hyun-Jin Ryu shortly after. Not to mention the team was listed as a front-runner to sign Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka, according to Hernandez, who would command upwards of $125 million if MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball can agree to a posting-fee system this offseason.

When you take those things into consideration, it doesn’t look like the Dodgers have any reservations about continuing to shell out the big bucks going forward. While Los Angeles hasn’t made any groundbreaking moves so far this winter, there is still plenty of time to make it happen.

Money doesn’t seem to be an object to this ownership group, who can seemingly consider throwing $400 million to Tanaka and Kershaw without blinking an eye. Market values for pitching are going up and Kershaw is peaking at the right time.

The Dodgers would hate to see Kershaw leave via free agency, and they have the financial wherewithal to keep him around. But will they be able to sign him before he has a chance to talk with other teams as a free agent?

Stay tuned.

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Starting pitching is the most precious commodity in Major League Baseball. Finding consistent dominance on the mound is something all 30 teams want but so few are able to get because there aren’t that many great arms available. 

Among the field of candidates for the 2013 Cy Young awards listed by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, to be handed out Wednesday, there are two standouts who should walk away with hardware. 

Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw and Detroit Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer are the overwhelming favorites, and the voting will likely reflect that. 

None of that is meant to denigrate the work of the other four finalists, but their resumes fall short Kershaw and Scherzer‘s.

Rather than continue to wax poetic about the job they did without showing you, here’s what the numbers say about the aces for the Dodgers and Tigers. 

Kershaw vs. The Field

It sounds strange to say given that he led the NL in ERA and WHIP in 2011 and 2012, but Kershaw‘s ascent to the throne of best pitcher in baseball didn’t take full effect until this season, when Justin Verlander relinquished the crown. 

It also didn’t hurt that Kershaw, as great as he has been throughout his career, had his best year as a professional in 2013. He led or tied for the league lead in ERA (1.83), shutouts (two), strikeouts (232), WHIP (0.915) and ERA+ (194). 

Here’s how Kershaw‘s season stats compare to Miami’s Jose Fernandez and St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright: 

By those numbers, you would have to combine different parts of Wainwright’s and Fernandez’s season to match what Kershaw did by himself. 

The most telling stat in that group is WHIP. Admittedly, it’s a flawed stat to judge a pitcher by because it does factor in defense, but it’s a good jumping-off point for how superior Kershaw was. 

We saw what Fernandez and Wainwright were able to do this year, especially when it comes to limiting the number of baserunners per inning. Yet Kershaw dwarfs what they were able to do, having the lowest WHIP by a starting pitcher since Randy Johnson in 2004 (0.8996). 

Now I want to dive deeper into advanced metrics, which appears to make the race close, but I will explain afterward why Kershaw‘s numbers here actually make him a stronger candidate. 

As much as I like expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP), which favors Wainwright, it actually punishes Kershaw more than the other two candidates because it normalizes the home run rate. 

Kershaw had the second-lowest home run rate in 2013 at 0.42 per nine innings, trailing only New York’s Matt Harvey (0.35). While that number may not be sustainable in future years, we can’t punish a pitcher for his single-season dominance. 

Fernandez topped Kershaw in opponents’ runs scored per nine innings pitched (RA9opp), but the margin is so small that Kershaw‘s significant edge in innings pitched (63.1) makes up the difference. 

Another factor that puts Kershaw over the top is his performance relative to number of batters faced. 

Kershaw faced 908 hitters in 2013; Wainwright led the NL with 956 batters faced, while Fernandez’s total was well behind at 681. 

Of the 908 hitters Kershaw faced, 221 (24.3 percent) reached base. That means Kershaw got rid of 687 opponents, with 232 coming via strikeout (25.5 percent). 

Wainwright allowed more hits (223, most in the NL) to his opponents than Kershaw let reach base. All told, the Cardinals’ ace allowed 266 opponents (27.8 percent) to reach base and struck out 219 (22.9 percent). 

Fernandez allowed 179 opponents (26.3 percent) to reach base with 187 strikeouts (27.5 percent). 

No NL pitcher in 2013 was better at his job than Kershaw. All the numbers support it. He’s widely regarded as the best pitcher in the sport and should be rewarded with his second Cy Young award. 

Scherzer vs. The Field

Unlike the NL race, where things are set up for Clayton Kershaw to destroy the field, the AL race is much closer than you might think. The pitcher I would have had in the No. 1 spot (Felix Hernandez) didn’t even make the final cut. 

Given Max Scherzer‘s incredible performance, it’s going to take a miracle for him not to win the Cy Young award, though there is a strong, valid argument for Hisashi Iwakuma. 

Scherzer‘s win-loss record should have nothing to do with winning this award, though that will be the narrative when he does. A lot of things have to happen for a pitcher to go 21-3, including great run support and luck. 

The Tigers scored 5.59 runs per game in Scherzer‘s starts, third best in baseball. He won or got a no-decision in three games when he allowed four or more earned runs. 

That’s the last you will hear about wins and losses in the Cy Young race from me. Let’s now focus on things that pitchers have more control over. 

While I don’t use WAR as a be-all, end-all stat, it does a great deal to inform what a player did. In this case, Scherzer‘s total is so much greater than Yu Darvish or Iwakuma‘s that you can see how much better/more valuable he was. 

Darvish had the advantage of missing bats at an alarming rate, 11.89 strikeouts per nine innings, but he also had a worse home run rate (1.12 per nine innings) and significantly higher walk rate (3.43 per nine innings) than his opponents. 

There is also the matter of competition. Darvish faced the Astros five times this year, which is an easy way to pad your strikeout stats. He did lead the league with 12 double-digit strikeout games, though his six starts of less than six innings were more than Iwakuma (five) and Scherzer (four). 

Iwakuma finished outside the top 10 of American League pitchers in fWAR. He was No. 12, behind Boston Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester. His case is interesting because it’s largely built around innings pitched, which leads the AL Cy Young field but not by a wide enough margin to matter, and Seattle’s porous defense. 

The Mariners were, by defensive runs saved (minus-99) and UZR (minus-73.0), the worst defensive team in the American League by a significant margin. Yet Iwakuma was able to overcome that by striking out a solid 7.6 hitters per nine innings and limiting walks (1.7 per nine innings). 

Going by competition, Iwakuma had the toughest task of the three AL Cy Young finalists. He made 20 starts against teams that finished among the top 10 in runs scored; Darvish made 13 starts against those teams, while Scherzer made just 12. 

In those games, Scherzer had 90 strikeouts and 27 earned runs allowed (3.02 ERA) in 80.1 innings. Iwakuma recorded 104 strikeouts and allowed 43 earned runs (3.01 ERA) in 128.2 innings. 

Even with Iwakuma‘s larger sample size, he wasn’t as dominant in those games as Scherzer. The Tigers starter had a superior strikeout rate, despite an ERA just a pinch above Seattle’s hurler. 

Going by ERA+, Scherzer and Darvish (both at 145, tied for second in the AL) were the superior pitchers; Iwakuma was a distant sixth at 138. 

Scherzer also blew Darvish and Iwakuma out of the water when it comes to fielding independent ERA. 

There are arguments to be made for all three finalists, though Darvish has the weakest of the bunch. Iwakuma has the advantage of taking on a tougher schedule, but his dominance overall was less impressive because it relied more on the defense behind him even though it wasn’t a good group. 

Scherzer‘s schedule wasn’t as top-heavy as Iwakuma‘s, not to mention eight starts made against the White Sox and Twins. But when Scherzer did face top offensive teams, he dominated more than the other finalists did.

The voting won’t be close because Scherzer‘s record will weigh heavily with a lot of voters, but there is also nothing substantial in favor of Iwakuma or Darvish to push them ahead of the Tigers right-hander. 

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. 

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. 

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Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, and one way or another, he’s going to be paid as such soon. Just ask his team’s owner.

The Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander had a season for the ages in 2013, leading the majors for the third straight year with a 1.83 ERA and topping the National League in strikeouts for the second time in three seasons. After winning this year’s Players Choice Award as the NL’s Outstanding Pitcher on Monday, it’s a mere formality that Kershaw will be taking home his second Cy Young Award this month.

He’s done all of this, by the way, at the tender age of 25.

And yet, Kershaw is now less than 12 months from reaching free agency after the 2014 season. At that point, all 30 teams would be able to bid on the top arm in baseball, who not only is among the most decorated and accomplished pitchers in the game, but also smack dab in the middle of his prime.

No wonder he’s intrigued by the possibilities.

“I think [for] any player, that’s the reward of baseball, to make it to that point,” Kershaw said of the prospect of reaching free agency, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. “I think any player gets curious when you get close, for sure.”

From a business standpoint, that’s a smart line from a guy who has a heck of a lot of leverage at the moment, even if he did let this slip to Hernandez about the city of Los Angeles: “I love it here.”

You see, in addition to all of the awards and accolades and his pending free agency, Kershaw has even more stacked in his corner.

For one, Dodgers part owner Magic Johnson told Buster Olney of ESPN (via Cork Gaines of Business Insider) before Opening Day that Kershaw is an invaluable asset to any team:

He’s our Sandy Koufax of today. That’s how important he is. We feel he is the best pitcher in all of baseball. And when you are the best, you gotta be paid the best. We understand that.

To put things in context, the largest contract ever given to a pitcher belongs to Justin Verlander of the Tigers, who signed a seven-year, $180 million contract last March that could turn into an eight-year, $202 million deal if he finishes among the top five in the 2019 Cy Young Award voting.

That contract topped the seven-year, $175 million deal signed a little more than a month earlier by Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez.

The largest amount ever handed out to a left-hander? Well, that goes to CC Sabathia, who landed $161 million over seven years from the New York Yankees after the 2008 season.

There’s also the fact that the Dodgers tried to do just what Johnson said—pay Kershaw like he’s the best pitcher around.

Kershaw had a contract worth upward of $300 million presented to him over the summer, according to an October report by Olney in ESPN The Magazine. And yet, the deal was never completed, with Kershaw apparently hesitant over the length of such a commitment and reluctant to negotiate during the season.

Whatever the reason, it’s a bit worrisome—for both sides—that such a massive number wasn’t able to get it done right then and there, no?

From the Dodgers’ point of view, if $300 million was actually on the table, what more could Kershaw want? From the pitcher’s perspective, it would be foolish to have walked away from an amount that could have made him the highest-paid hurler—and player—in baseball history.

In the end, this could wind up being one costly game of chicken if the Dodgers have to raise the bar they’ve already set, or if Kershaw has any performance- or health-related struggles in 2014.

But Kershaw is the one with most of the power here, given how well he’s pitched and how close he is to hitting the market. The Dodgers, who will more than likely have baseball’s biggest-ever payroll next season, even if they don’t lock him up long term. might actually not be able to afford something for once—in this case, calling the curious Kershaw‘s let’s-play-the-free-agency-game bluff.

To be clear, no one is blaming either side for this reported proposed deal not already being done, since it’s not often that teams or players put finances at the forefront during the season. But now that the offseason has begun, the clock is ticking and the Dodgers would be wise to hammer things out if, in fact, they want to keep Kershaw in Los Angeles for, oh, the next decade, as opposed to only one more year.

The alternative, of course, is to give 29 other teams a chance to talk to Kershaw, which would only drive up a price that is already astronomical.

“We already know we’ve got to give him a lot of money,” Johnson said in October, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. “What’s a few more zeroes?”

A few more zeroes are enough to potentially prevent Kershaw‘s curiosity from getting the best of the Dodgers.

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Clayton Kershaw isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2015 season, but the Dodgers don’t want to waste any time locking up their ace southpaw.

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported on Saturday that the Dodgers offered Kershaw a contract in the $300 million range during the season:

The Los Angeles Dodgers offered what was essentially a lifetime contract to pitcher Clayton Kershaw earlier this season, for a deal of in the range $300 million — “an A-Rod deal,” according to one source with knowledge of the scope and structure.

The two sides were unable to finish negotiations on that arrangement, sources say, because Kershaw was initially uncertain about committing to a deal so encompassing, and about having contract talks during the season.

Even though the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement, Olney does note that “the negotiations progressed enough that there is confidence among some with knowledge of the talks that a long-term deal will be concluded this winter.”

Despite a lackluster start against the Cardinals in Game 6 of the NLCS to close the Dodgers’ 2013 postseason run, there is little doubt that Kershaw is worth the money.

He took home the National League Cy Young award in 2011 and was the runner-up for the prestigious award in 2012. He’s considered the front-runner to take home the coveted trophy again this season after going 16-9 with a 1.83 ERA and 232 strikeouts in 33 starts this season. 

Kershaw’s production speaks for itself, but offering that kind of money for any arm, regardless of skill or reputation, is dangerous.

Johan Santana was the best pitcher in baseball when he signed a six-year, $137.5 million contract with the Mets in 2008. However, injuries have kept Santana from starting 30 games in all but his first season in the Big Apple. 

At 25 years old, Kershaw is cut from a rare cloth. His lethal repertoire, durability and youth make him a candidate to be the game’s leading arm for years to come.

As Olney notes, “the Dodgers nearly tripled their payroll in the span of a year” after Stan Kasten, Mark Walter and Magic Johnson took over the team’s reins. 

It’s hard to tell what number Kershaw and the Dodgers will eventually settle on, if they settle at all, but it’s pretty clear that this ownership group has the aggressive attitude to lock the game’s premier left-hander up for the long haul.

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The Dodgers‘ magical season ended with an ugly 9-0 loss versus the Cardinals at the hands of rookie pitcher and NLCS MVP Michael Wacha, who tossed 13.2 scoreless innings while defeating ace Clayton Kershaw for the second time in the series. 

While there is plenty of disappointment that they fell short of their ultimate goal of winning a World Championship, the loss could result in an even more exciting offseason if it results in ownership pursuing one or two more star players. 

In reality, they’re still a very good team. They won 67 of their last 100 games, and none of their best players are eligible for free agency. Ownership has extremely deep pockets. The team had the best home attendance in baseball. And they have a lot of money coming off of the books after the season.

So, keep your heads up, Dodgers fans. The window of contention is still wide open for this group. 

If general manager Ned Colletti can avoid another Brandon League-like debacle—League was a bust after being re-signed to a three-year, $22.5 million deal at the beginning of last offseason—he has a chance to put together the finishing pieces to what could be the most talented roster in baseball… on paper. 

Here’s everything you’ll need to know before Colletti and the front office get started.

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One of the greatest regular-season pitching performances in recent memory has come to a close.

Ace lefty Clayton Kershaw fired six innings of shutout ball against the Colorado Rockies on Friday night to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to an easy 11-0 win. He allowed four hits and no walks with eight strikeouts. Factoring these numbers in, his final regular-season numbers look like this: 33 starts, 236.0 innings, 232 strikeouts, 52 walks, .195 BAA and a 1.83 ERA.

He’s the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 2005 to finish with an ERA under 2.00, and he’s only the 11th since 1981 to do so.

A season for the books if there ever was one, but it’s not over quite yet. If Kershaw wants to make his season one for the ages, there’s one dragon left for him to slay: October.

The Dodgers are rolling into the postseason with weapons galore, from Hanley Ramirez to Yasiel Puig to Adrian Gonzalez to Carl Crawford to Zack Greinke to Kenley Jansen and to what might be a reinvigorated Matt Kemp. No opposing players look at names like these and have an easy feeling.

But Kershaw? He’s the guy. His golden left arm could be an automatic win machine for the Dodgers in October. Put enough of those in the bag, and the Dodgers may soon be celebrating their first World Series victory since 1988.

And try as I might, I couldn’t come up with any good reasons for why Kershaw might not be up to it. 

It crossed my mind for, oh, maybe two-and-a-half seconds to make something of Kershaw’s postseason track record. He pitched in October in 2008 and 2009, posting a 5.87 ERA in five appearances. Hardly the sort of performance befitting of an ace!

But yeah. Two problems. One is the ol’ small sample size thing, as Kershaw compiled that 5.87 ERA in five appearances that spanned only 15.1 innings. Three of those five appearances came in relief. 

Then there’s the second problem with daring to make anything of Kershaw’s postseason track record: It was made at a time when Clayton Kershaw wasn’t yet Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw was 20 years old in 2008 and 21 in 2009. He was a real-life answer to Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn both years, walking 4.3 batters per nine in ’08 and 4.8 batters per nine in ’09. The latter was a largely successful season due to Kershaw’s keen abilities to miss bats and limit hits, but stressful times were always just around the corner when he was on the hill.

In the past four seasons, Kershaw owns a mere 2.5 BB/9. He’s effectively cut his old walk habit in half, which my basic knowledge of baseball tells me is a “positive” trend.

It must also be noted that Kershaw was still getting to know a good friend of his the last time he pitched in the postseason.

As Grantland’s Jonah Keri told the tale, it wasn’t until June of 2009 that Kershaw started using a slider in games. His use of his slider has ballooned in the four years since, and I’d wager it’s a pitch that’s now just as feared as his curveball. Per Brooks Baseball, hitters own just a .152 average against Kershaw’s slider since the start of the 2010 season.

There’s another part of that Keri story that stands out, and it has to do with Kershaw’s, shall we say, intensity. The key bits read:

Talk to Ellis, other Dodgers teammates, beat writers, and everyone else around the team, and they’ll all describe Kershaw as pathologically determined to win.

[Snip]

In his mind, it makes sense to be a beloved, happy-go-lucky teammate four days out of five, only to bite teammates’ heads off on days when he’s starting if they bring up anything — movies, dinner plans, anything — that doesn’t relate to that night’s start.

Let’s go ahead and draw up a list of qualities you want in a guy who’s poised to lead your pitching staff in a quest for a World Series title. The idea guy would:

• Not be prone to getting himself in trouble.
• Have an arsenal of overpowering stuff.
• Have a burning desire to smite everything and everyone in his path.

So basically, Clayton Kershaw. Maybe he had the intensity before back in 2008 and 2009, but he didn’t have a complete arsenal yet, and he certainly didn’t have the ability to keep himself out of trouble by keeping his wildness in check. He wasn’t well-equipped for postseason duty. He is now.

With this avenue sealed off, I had to resort to turning my game of “Find Reasons to Doubt Clayton Kershaw” into a matter of nitpickery. Sure, he ended the season on a high note with his performance against the Rockies, but maybe he’s developed a weakness in recent days/weeks/months that could bite him in October. There’s gotta be something, right?

I’ll spare you from having to take a wild guess: Not really, no.

The first thing I did was draw Kershaw’s monthly splits on FanGraphs and focus on the top indicators of pitching quality. You know, things like strikeouts, walks, ground balls and home runs. All things that a pitcher can influence to some degree or another.

Here are those key numbers by month for Kershaw, with FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and ERA thrown in for good measure.

One thing that stands out is that Kershaw has been better in every category except for HR/FB rate in the second half of the season. And while his ERA for September is not his best, it’s also not his worst. September was also one of his best months for FIP, and he did just fine in the strikeout and walk departments.

With yet another avenue to doubt Kershaw sealed off, I said to myself, “OK, well, maybe his stuff has lost something. Maybe he’s not packing the same ammunition that he was packing earlier in the year.”

Um, no.

I went to Brooks Baseball and checked out Kershaw’s velocity numbers. Then I made another table:

Throughout the season, there’s been very little fluctuation in the speed of any of Kershaw’s pitches. On the contrary, he’s gained velocity. He’s been throwing harder in September than he was in April, and he’s been throwing harder in the second half than he was in the first half. He’s set a new career high for innings this season, but his arm wouldn’t appear to be losing any of its strength.

This would be yet another avenue to doubt Kershaw sealed off. So I then said to myself, “OK, so his arm is fine, but is his stuff fooling hitters as effectively as it has been all season?”

Here’s where, somewhat relieved, I finally found a nit to pick.

Momentarily, anyway.

What I wanted to do was see if any of Kershaw’s pitches have been finding bats more often in recent days. For that, I went to Brooks Baseball and dug up some whiff/swing numbers.

We didn’t see a whole lot of fluctuation in the other two tables. Here, we see all sorts of fluctuation, but only one red flag. Do you see it? 

It’s the whiff/swing rate on Kershaw’s slider this month. The lowest it had dropped before September was into the mid-30s. It’s been in the mid-20s this month, and the extra bats finding it have done some damage.

Before September, opponents hit .176 against Kershaw’s slider with a .114 ISO (Isolated Power) and four home runs. In September, opponents have hit .333 against it with a .292 ISO and two home runs. Before September, the horizontal movement on Kershaw’s slider was well over three inches. In September, it’s been under three inches.

…And it’s all thanks to a couple of bad games.

Here’s some September slider info:

Against the Rockies and Reds, Kershaw had a flat slider, and it wasn’t fooling anyone. Against the Giants and Padres, his slider was less flat and fooled a few more hitters. If it was the other way around—i.e., if Kershaw’s slider was getting flatter rather than sharper—there’d be a reason to worry. But, well, that’s not the way it is.

Another thing worth noting: Both of the homers hit off Kershaw’s slider this month were by the same guy several innings apart. Jay Bruce did the honors, first on a flat slider down in the lefty hitter’s happy zone, and again on another flat slider that was right over the heart of the plate.

Yet another thing worth noting: Kershaw’s slider continued to look good against the Rockies. Brooks Baseball) has the average horizontal movement of Kershaw’s slider on Friday night at 3.53 inches. That’s the best horizontal movement on it he’s had all month, and it’s even better than his season average of 3.34 inches.

Here’s where I abandoned my search for reasons to doubt Kershaw. I didn’t see everything, but I figured I’d seen enough.

What I knew at the beginning was that Kershaw had just put together one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory. What I then figured was that he’s much more cut out to excel in October than he was the last time he dipped his toes in. And outside of a brief lapse with one of his key pitches earlier this month, it’s scary how much of a model of consistency Kershaw has been over the past six months.

He ought to be able to keep doing his thing for one more month. If the Dodgers fail to win the World Series this year, something tells me it won’t be because of their ace.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Friday night’s scolding of the Colorado Rockies marked the end of Clayton Kershaw‘s 2013 regular season. The southpaw has now completed six sensational years at the major league level, and over the past half-century, few other pitchers have realized comparable success at such a young age.

Not yet 26 years old, the All-Star left-hander has led the National League in earned run average for three consecutive summers. According to FanGraphs, he also boasts the lowest earned run average in the majors since debuting in 2008 (min. 400 IP). His 1.83 ERA this year is the best posted by any qualified starter since Pedro Martinez in 2000.

We’ll look at how Kershaw‘s first half-dozen MLB campaigns stack up against those of all others who have debuted since 1964. More specifically, we’re intrigued by those who reached the The Show early—Kershaw was called up to the Los Angeles Dodgers as a 20-year-old—and quickly proved themselves to be both dominant and durable.

Identifying Legitimate Challengers

Let’s begin with a list that includes all pitchers of the past 50 years who amassed at least 1,000 innings through their age-25 campaigns. Check it out on either the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index or FanGraphs (whichever color scheme is easier on your eyes).

There are only 44 names, including a handful of Hall of Famers and a few strong candidates for future induction, as well as plenty of former stars who couldn’t make the necessary adjustments as they matured.

Using either source of Wins Above Replacement, Kershaw cracks the top 10. He’s just as impressive in terms of adjusted earned run average, batting average against, OPS against, quality start percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Indeed, it’s at least worth discussing whether or not the start of his career is the best of these past several generations.

The following pitchers contended with Kershaw for the top spot in all of the aforementioned categories, and therefore received serious consideration: Bert Blyleven, Roger Clemens, Doc Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, Tom Seaver and Fernando Valenzuela.

(Sam McDowell was on par with those guys from 1964 to 1968, but actually debuted back in 1961. He struggled during his first couple of seasons and never really solved his command issues.)

Kershaw Isn’t No. 1

Sorry for spoiling the suspense, but Kershaw frankly doesn’t belong in the same sentence as the young versions of Blyleven or Seaver.

Here’s a comparison of their rookie campaigns. Keep in mind that for IP, ERA+ and K/BB, higher is better:

Blyleven was actually the youngest player in the entire American League during his debut season. Thanks to that early call-up, he has posted by far the highest 25-and-under career WAR of any pitcher over the past 50 years.

Breaking through in the 1970s deprived Blyleven of the major award recognition that he sorely deserved. Sportswriters overlooked him because of a pedestrian win-loss record. He was 108-101 overall through age 25 and never better than five games above .500 in a season. Nonetheless, he had a virtually identical quality start percentage to Kershaw at those ages, not to mention 115 complete games and 30 shutouts.

Meanwhile, Seaver kicked off his career with several more years of life experience, and his immediate excellence reflected that. He earned National League Rookie of the Year honors in 1967 and the NL Cy Young Award in 1969. Tom Terrific logged at least 250 innings in each of his first six seasons, whereas Kershaw has never reached that milestone.

The adjusted earned run average and batting average against of 2008 to 2013 Kershaw and 1967 to 1972 Seaver practically match, but remember that Seaver was frequently pushed into the later innings or used on three days’ rest (often both).

Valenzuela Peaked Early, Saberhagen Wasn’t Steady

On the other hand, Kershaw belongs ahead of both Fernandomania and Sabes considering their inconsistencies.

Valenzuela was unstoppable for much of the strike-shortened 1981 season. He led the National League in innings pitched and strikeouts at age 20 en route to the NL Cy Young Award.

Unfortunately, the Mexican lefty couldn’t sustain that excellence. Although nearly as effective in 1982, his WHIP bloated to 1.34 the following season. Then in 1984 and 1985, walks became somewhat of a concern (3.66 BB/9 and 3.34 BB/9, respectively).

Of course, Valenzuela was still a great pitcher in his mid-20s, just not on par with what Kershaw has been for the Dodgers the past several years.

This coming offseason, Kershaw will join Saberhagen in an elite fraternity of pitchers to hoist two Cy Young Awards prior to turning 26. The difference is that Kershaw was more productive in his non-award-winning campaigns.

L.A.’s present-day ace didn’t take home the hardware in 2009, 2010 or 2012, but he still posted adjusted earned run averages of 143, 133 and 150, respectively. Saberhagen pales in comparison, as he only totaled 156 innings and a 102 ERA+ in 1986 (following his first award). After an outstanding ’87 season, he regressed again in 1988. In that era, it wasn’t acceptable for a rotation leader to go a full year without recording a complete-game shutout, yet that’s exactly what happened.

Deciding No. 3, No. 4 and No. 5

Kershaw, Gooden and Clemens. Kershaw, Clemens and Gooden. Gooden, Clemens and Kershaw. Gooden, Kershaw and Clemens. Clemens, Kershaw and Gooden. Clemens, Gooden and Kershaw.

Those are our six options.

Actually, we can narrow them down to three. Clemens had the obvious early career edge over Kershaw.

Their MLB debuts were eerily similar—Clemens had a 97 ERA+ and 8.5 K/9 in 1984, much like Kershaw‘s 98 ERA+ and 8.4 K/9 in 2008.

They diverged, however, after Clemens’ rotator cuff surgery in ’85. With a little help from Dr. James Andrews, the Rocket came back better than ever. Comparing their third, fourth and fifth years, he beat Kershaw in ERA+ (154 to 148) and K/BB (3.70 to 3.48) while averaging about an extra inning per start.

So…Kershaw, Gooden and Clemens. Kershaw, Clemens and Gooden, Gooden, Clemens and Kershaw. Gooden, Kershaw and Clemens, Clemens, Kershaw and Gooden. Clemens, Gooden and Kershaw.

Gooden was initially far superior to Clemens and Kershaw. He made 66 regular-season starts through age 20, unbelievably maintaining a 176 ERA+, 1.01 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. Then again, being less than stellar from ages 21 to 25 negates that (110 ERA+, 1.20 WHIP, 7.4 K/9). He ranks last among this trio as a result.

In other words, relative to other pitchers from the past five decades who were moved into MLB starting duty so early in life, Kershaw has bolted to the fourth-best start. He’s only looking up at two Hall of Famers and a third icon who’s a G.O.A.T. candidate (albeit with an asterisk).

Kershaw‘s agents, Casey Close and J.D. Smart, would be wise to quote that paragraph when they negotiate a long-term contract with the Dodgers this winter.

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