Kuzul

While players like Andrew McCutchen, David Wright and Paul Goldschmidt are getting all the MVP buzz in the National League, Clayton Kershaw is the dark-horse candidate in the field who might end up grabbing the honor. 

There has always been a (ridiculous) stigma against giving pitchers the MVP award because, as Boston Globe writer Bob Ryan wrote in 2011, comparing an everyday player against someone who only participates in 33-35 games in a given season is “a clear apples-vs.-oranges issue.”

Of course, someone as astute as Ryan (and others who don’t believe a pitcher should win the MVP) would know that even though they are only playing in a fraction of the games a position player does, starting pitchers have much more control over the outcome of their games than anyone else. 

It should also be pointed out that the actual ballot that the Baseball Writers’ Association of America fills out specifically says “keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, including pitchers and designated hitters.”

Justin Verlander broke through the stigma two years ago by winning the AL MVP award when he was the best and most dominant pitcher in baseball, so why shouldn’t the game’s current best and most dominant pitcher be able to reap the same rewards?

Granted, Verlander had 24 wins in 2011 and Kershaw isn’t going to approach that number with just 11 so far this season. Voters love rewarding high win totals for pitchers.

But as Dave Schoenfield of ESPN.com wrote, if you think wins are the measuring stick of a pitcher’s performance, Kershaw has had seven games this year giving up two or fewer runs allowed without earning the win and has not won a game in which he allowed three or more runs. 

(Schoenfield notes that Max Scherzer, arguably the favorite for the AL Cy Young award, has gotten five wins this season giving up three or more runs.)

It’s not like Kershaw doesn’t have the numbers to support his case, as shown in the following section:

The Standard Stuff

It doesn’t take much to see Kershaw is great at what he does. Whether you are a casual fan who doesn’t like all of the new stats used to analyze players or a hardcore sabermetric lover, Kershaw passes any test you throw at him. 

Looking at the most basic stats you will see on a television broadcast (innings, ERA, hits allowed strikeouts, walks), Kershaw ranks first or second in three of the five categories among NL pitchers. He ranks eighth in hits allowed, and 20th in walks with 39, hardly a concerning number when you have thrown 182.1 innings. 

But what does that tell us about Kershaw’s performance compared to the average pitcher in the National League? Here are his numbers put side by side against a league-average NL starter in 2013:

As you can see, Kershaw is significantly better than the rest of the NL starters.

In fact, going by percentages, he is dwarfing the field. He has thrown 18 percent more innings, walked 14 percent less batters, stuck out 32 percent more, has a WHIP 68 percent lower and an ERA 105 percent smaller than the typical starter. 

But we can’t just compare Kershaw to another starting pitcher in the NL. We want to show how much better he has been at his job than any other player in the National League this season.

To provide more context, then, here is how McCutchen, who I consider the leading MVP candidate among position players in the NL, compared to the rest of the league using some basic statistical analysis:

McCutchen has been stellar this season, just as he was in 2012 when he had a very strong MVP case but wound up losing to Buster Posey. 

The Pirates outfielder has a 19 percent edge over the mean in average, 18 percent in on-base percentage, 23 percent in slugging, 24 percent more home runs and a nearly 400 percent edge in stolen bases. 

Scientific Evidence

Since we don’t get a clear separation between Kershaw and McCutchen in the usual numbers, we have to dive deeper into what the advanced metrics are telling us. 

First, the easiest stat to point out is wins above replacement (WAR). It is not the be-all, end-all stat, but it does provide a good, solid jumping off point. 

Going by Baseball Reference WAR (rWAR), Kershaw’s 6.1 leads all starting pitchers in both leagues. His lead over the No. 2 pitcher in the National League, Matt Harvey (5.3), is fairly substantial. He also gets an extra 0.2 WAR boost from hitting, putting his full total at 6.3. 

I know there are going to be Harvey supporters pointing out that his Fangraphs WAR is greater than Kershaw’s (5.7 to 5.0), but that is based more on fielding independent pitching than anything else. 

Baseball Reference’s version of WAR accounts for a pitcher’s runs allowed and adjusts to account for their opponents, team defense, park, and role (h/t Fangraphs). That strikes me as a better way to determine pitcher value because the opponents you are playing, ball park effects and the defense behind you are important parts of how good or bad a pitcher is. 

In the National League, there are only three players with an rWAR over 6.0—Kershaw (6.3), McCutchen (6.3) and Carlos Gomez (6.4). 

Gomez is the one outlier in that group because he gets such a huge boost from his defense. There is tremendous value to being an elite glove in center field, but his offensive numbers have dropped the last two months with an .801 OPS in July and .570 in August. 

McCutchen is having his best defensive season ever, based on defensive runs saved (eight) and UZR (5.5). He has always had the tools to be a plus defender in center, but the math never lined up because PNC Park’s measurements didn’t help him out. 

Kershaw and McCutchen have provided roughly the same amount of value this season, but there are some separators that push Kershaw over the top. 

Examining ERA+ and OPS+, two stats that show how much better or worse than average a player is on a scale starting at 100 (more than 100 is above average, under 100 is below average), we see that Kershaw’s ERA+ is 189 and McCutchen’s OPS+ is 153. 

What that tells us is that McCutchen is 53 percent better than the league-average position player in 2013 and Kershaw is 89 percent better than the league-average starter in 2013. 

It’s an apples-to-oranges comparison because there is no way to use exact stats as a way to separate a pitcher from a position player, but it doesn’t take a mathematician to see that being 89-percent better than a league-average starter is better than a 53-percent edge over the league-average position player. 

No Bad Days

Since starting pitchers only have a fraction of the games to make an impression on the voting populace—but if you factor the total number of outs/plays they are directly involved in compared to a position player, those numbers actually even out—it is important that they be at the top of their game every time they step on the mound. 

You would be hard pressed to say that Kershaw has had a bad outing this season. His two shortest starts came in the middle of April when he threw 5.1 innings against San Diego giving up five runs (three earned), seven hits, four walks and recording five strikeouts. He followed that up with a five-inning start against the Mets walking four, striking out five and giving up two earned runs. 

Since then, Kershaw’s worst start was against St. Louis on May 26 when he gave up four runs (all earned) on seven hits, three walks and five strikeouts in seven innings. He hasn’t gone less than six innings in a start since the end of April, has thrown at least seven innings in 20 of 25 starts and at least eight innings six times in his last nine starts.

Position players, because they are on the field everyday, are going to have more “bad” days, but they also don’t have as much direct control over the outcome of a game as a starting pitcher. 

Kershaw has been masterful this season, leading the NL in ERA, WHIP, ERA+, shutouts, hits per nine innings and only trailing Adam Wainwright in innings pitched by one out (182.2 to 182.1). He has a very real shot to win the award and at the very least deserves serious consideration alongside McCutchen and Wright (who has no shot to win because the Mets are terrible). 

If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with questions or comments. 

Follow @adamwells1985

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

While baseball award predictions are usually thwarted by hot Septembers, cold Septembers and injuries, one cannot deny the fun of it.

The 2013 NL Cy Young race is a particularly interesting debate, since they are a few very good hurlers taking the mound every fifth day, but no clear-cut favorite.

There are so many good NL pitchers this season that I knew I would insult a couple candidates by narrowing the field down down to five contestants.

Jordan Zimmerman, Jason Grilli, and Cliff Lee were my final cuts.

So, without further adieu, the 2013 NL Cy Young race, according to Phil…

Begin Slideshow

The starting pitchers for the 2013 All-Star game have not yet been announced, but it’s clear that there are a few pitchers who deserve to start.

Pitchers who deserve to start are not only having great years, but stand out in one or more particular categories.

Which pitchers deserve to start? Read on to find out. 

Patrick Corbin

Corbin is not a household name, but he still deserves a chance to start. The 23-year-old has a 10-1 record, with a 2.40 ERA and a dazzling 0.98 WHIP.

He has the best winning percentage in the NL, while also boasting the fifth-best ERA. 

He’s unheralded to be sure, and he made his debut a little over a year ago. But he has four elite pitches and has been the most consistent pitcher in the NL.

The country needs to be introduced to Corbin, and there is no better place than on the mound in the first inning of the All-Star game.

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw is leading the NL in most major pitching categories. He has the best ERA at 1.89, and has pitched the most innings, at 138.1.

He is second in the league in strikeouts with 129 and has the best WHIP, at 0.90.

The 8-5 record isn’t pretty, but that’s mostly due to a lack of run support.

On pure numbers, Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. That fact alone is enough to give him the starting gig.

Kershaw has said all the right things about the starting job, including telling FoxSports.com that Matt Harvey deserves the start: “There’s no reason, especially if it’s in New York, that he shouldn’t start. That’s what the fans will want. I’ve got no problem with that.”

While the humility is endearing, Kershaw is the one who deserves the start. He simply has the best numbers. 

Max Scherzer

Scherzer is putting up terrific numbers this year. He has a 13-0 record, with a 3.06 ERA, 146 strikeouts and a batting average against of .200.

The fact that he hasn’t lost all year makes him worthy of taking the hill as the starter. It also doesn’t hurt that his every day manager, Jim Leyland, will be coaching the AL squad.

Scherzer‘s fantastic start deserves to be rewarded. It’s not often that a pitcher logs so many important innings for a contender and simply does not lose.

He’s one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball and should be rewarded with the start. 

Mariano Rivera

Yes, choosing Mariano Rivera would be an unconventional choice. The legendary closer is used to starting the ninth inning, not the first.

But Rivera is retiring at the end of the season, and the greatest closer who ever lived deserves a fitting send-off. 

If he is installed as the AL closer, there is no guarantee that he pitches in the bottom of the ninth. Jim Leyland will give him every chance to pitch, but if the American League is losing badly in the eighth, his appearance will lose its luster. 

Starting him is undoubtedly sentimental, but it ensures the legend can end his All-Star career with the pomp and circumstance it deserves. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Clayton Kershaw is not happy with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

According to The Los Angeles Times, Kershaw was displeased that contract discussions were leaked to the media, saying it’s now a distraction.

“I think the reason we’ve been able to continue discussions for this long is that it’s not been talked about,” Kershaw said. “And now that I’m having to talk about it, it’s a distraction because people are talking about it. I guess you’ll have to talk to the Dodgers as to why it came out now. I don’t love the fact that I have to talk about it.”

Kershaw felt he had a gentleman’s agreement with the Dodgers to not talk speak about the contract publicly.

“It didn’t come from our side,” Kershaw said. “I’m going to still hold up my end of the bargain and not talk about it.”

The question now is does this hurt the Dodgers’ future? Could it possibly lead Kershaw to hold off talks until the offseason and possibly until he’s a free agent?

Hurt Feelings

Kershaw may have had his feelings hurt just a little because someone leaked this to the media, but it’s not like contract extension talks were a secret.

Multiple media outlets, including Bleacher Report, have long considered Kershaw and the Dodgers to be working on an extension. Most have tried to guess how much he’ll make.

The fact that they’re making progress shouldn’t hurt Kershaw‘s feelings. The fact that it leaked shouldn’t, either. In today’s social-media world, that kind of stuff happens.

It’s hard for anything to be done in secret. Just look at the country’s political scene from the IRS scandal to the Edward Snowden situation. Even when sworn to secrecy at the highest levels of government, stuff still gets leaked.

So, what would make Kershaw think progress on contract talks wouldn’t be leaked?

Welcome to the good ole USA.

He’s Going to Get Paid

No matter what happens, Kershaw is going to get paid.

Being that he’s just 25, he’s likely going to become the highest-paid pitcher in baseball.

Justin Verlander’s contract extension that could pay him $202 million over seven years would just be a starting point for the Dodgers (or any team if Kershaw goes to free agency).

Verlander’s highest-paid years are from 2015 to 2019, in which he’ll make $28 million a season.

As far as Kershaw, he’ll likely be the first pitcher to reach $30 million in a year. His total contract will likely exceed $210-215 million.

And there aren’t too many teams that can afford that. In fact, outside of the Dodgers, I don’t see anyone paying that kind of money.

The New York Yankees are looking to be more frugal with their spending, while the Philadelphia Phillies have a lot of money they still owe their top pitchers.

The Dodgers are currently the only team that can afford to open their checkbook and pay multiple players absurd amounts of money.

This is just a small hiccup and both parties will get past it.

Kershaw wants to stay with the Dodgers over the course of his career, and the Dodgers want to keep him in town.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In a year that has featured a couple of blockbuster deals for pitchers, it appears that Clayton Kershaw may very well be the next pitcher to land a megadeal.

According to a report by Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, the Los Angeles Dodgers are currently in talks with Kershaw about a contract extension.  The extension would likely be for seven years and over $180 million, which means it would top the deal Justin Verlander got back in March.  Felix Hernandez was able to sign a seven-year deal worth $175 million back in February. 

That means that if this deal goes over the $180 million mark, Kershaw will be the highest-paid pitcher in baseball.

Apparently, the two sides also talked about a few other deals, including a deal that would be for 12 years and worth $300 million.

The 2011 NL Cy Young Award winner has a 66-41 record and 2.71 ERA to go along with 1,070 strikeouts over his career. In 2011, he went 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts.

This season has been just as impressive for Kershaw.  Although his team has been struggling, he has an ERA of only 1.84 paired with a microscopic 0.97 WHIP.  He leads the National League with the best ERA and most strikeouts with 104.

At only 25 years old, the two-time All-Star certainly appears to deserve a big contract.  He’s been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing season for the Dodgers, who are currently last in the NL West division.

Although nothing has been decided as of yet, the two sides appear to be working hard at getting this deal done. Once it is finalized, expect yet another huge contract for a fantastic pitcher.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

When Clayton Kershaw steps on the mound Tuesday night, he’ll be after career win No. 64. If the Dodgers lefty, still just 25 years old, is ever going to have a chance to step on the mound to achieve his 300th win, when might that be and how will he get there?

Even though Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson each won their 300th game within the past 10 seasons (see chart below), 300 wins seems like an impossibility these days, a figment of the imagination from decades past, when pitchers would make more starts and throw more innings than they do in today’s game.

But given Kershaw’s age and success to this point of his still-young career, let’s map out a scenario in which he joins the club. 

Fellow MLB Lead Writer Zach Rymer recently considered Kershaw’s chances to crack the 4,000-strikeout club. Now let’s see how Kershaw’s trek to 300 wins might look in a fanciful world where we control his fate.

THE 300-WIN CLUB

Before anything else, here’s a reminder of the 24 pitchers who have won 300 or more games in MLB history, so we know what Kershaw is up against.

To provide further context on what Kershaw needs to do, here are the ages at which each pitcher won his 100th, 200th and 300th game:

*Denotes a player who debuted prior to 1900 (the modern era). Of the 24 300-game winners, 17 started their careers in 1900 or later.

**Spahn missed three full seasons in the middle of his career (1943-45) due to military service.

***Wynn missed one full season in the middle of his career (1945) due to military service.

The most important part of that chart is the last column, “Average Age.” That provides the benchmarks we should aim for with Kershaw. In short, if 300 wins is a realistic goal—we’re using “realistic” here in the loosest possible way—then Kershaw should shoot to have win No. 100 by age 27, win No. 200 by 32 and No. 300 by 38 or so.

That’s what we’ll use to guide us along Kershaw’s quest.

KERSHAW THROUGH AGE 25

Here’s where we apply this to Kershaw, who already has two wins in this, his age-25 season. If we conservatively project that he’ll win 12 more in 2013—to match his total from last year’s 14—then he’ll have exactly 75 wins through age 25.

(Quick aside: That has been done by 53 pitchers in the modern era of baseball, and of those 53, only five went on to win 300 for their career. Not exactly promising odds, huh?)

While we’re on the topic of the 2013 season, since we’re taking liberties with Kershaw’s career path, let’s just get the whole contract extension out of the way right here. While he is in line to hit free agency after 2014, for the purposes of this piece, Kershaw will be signing a 10-year extension with the Dodgers at some point in the near future. This will dwarft the recent extension Justin Verlander signed to stay with the Tigers at upward of $202 million.

Such a contract makes sense for both sides—and helps our perfect-world scenario move along—as the Dodgers have the dough and Kershaw would be able to stay in one of baseball’s best pitcher’s parks around, which of course, helps him toward his ultimate goal of 300 wins. Plus, being on a team whose owners are willing to spend big to acquire premium talent will only help Kershaw’s chances to keep piling up wins.

Okay, back to the task at hand—winning 300 games.

If Kershaw finishes 2013 with 75 career wins. That means he’ll have two seasons, at ages 26 and 27, to accrue at least 25 more wins to reach the 100-win mark to keep him on pace for 300 “W”s. Certainly do-able, right? In fact, forget our little world of make-believe, Kershaw might even do better than that in real life.

But what will he have to do to stay on that pace?

KERSHAW IN HIS PRIME

Since Kershaw will turn 26 just before the start of 2014 and the average age of our 300-game winners at No. 300 is almost 38, that gives him 13 seasons or so to rack up those 225 wins—or 17.3 wins per year.

Obviously, Kershaw could pitch a few years beyond his 38th birthday, but by that point, he’s going to need to be within, say, 25 wins of 300 to have any sort of realistic shot of getting there in his late-30s or early-40s.

That means Kershaw will need to use the first portion of his prime years to get well on his way to 200 wins by the time he hits the big three-oh, as the chart above reminds us.

In fact, Kershaw will have to be at his most productive from 26 through 32 if he wants to make a run at 300. That seems like common sense, since those years typically encompass a pitcher’s prime.

Plus, as the chart shows, it took the average 300-game winner fewer than five years to go from win No. 100 to No. 200; whereas it took nearly six years to go from No. 200 to No. 300. Simply put, a pitcher typically has to win the second hundred faster than the third hundred.

Let’s paint an optimistic picture here and say Kershaw wins an average of 18 games a year in his prime from ages 26 through 32 (2014-2020). That’s 126 wins over those seven seasons, which when added to the 75 we’re giving him through 2013, allows Kershaw to cross the 200-win barrier at 201 career double-yoos through age 32.

Whaddaya know? That keeps him right on pace with our chart. So far, so good.

KERSHAW VERSUS THE LAST 100

We’ve made it here by adopting an optimistic point of view (and perhaps by donning a pair of rose-colored glasses), but this is where a leap of faith is required.

Remember, Kershaw has crossed the 200-win line through age 32, but he’s done so by the skin of his teeth at 201, so he’ll need to make that up on the back end.

Only 54 pitchers have won at least 99 games after turning age 33, which is the exact win total to get Kershaw to No. 300 and the exact age Kershaw would be at this stage in his mythical career arc.

Now, if we limit the parameters to only since 1969, when MLB adopted divisions, to help make things a little more current, that number is cut in half to 27.

And if we go from 1980 on, well, it’s almost lopped in half again: only 14 pitchers have won at least 99 from age 33 on.

Here’s how it looks in graph form:

So it can be—and has been—done. In fact, of the 14 to do so since 1980, five have gone on to win 300. Pretty good odds at 36 percent, actually, and in our scenario, Kershaw is going to have to mae it six out of 15.

Now, of those five—the five most-recent 300-game winners—Maddux was the youngest to reach No. 300 at 38, whereas Clemens was 40, Glavine was 41, Ryan was 43 and Johnson was 45.

In all likelihood, then, Kershaw won’t hit 300 until he’s an age that begins with a “4.”

Remember, Kershaw is starting with 201 wins entering his age-33 season, so to get 99 wins before he turns 40, that would mean he averages just over 14 wins a year. Probably not happening, right?

But over 10 years, at which point Kershaw would be 42, he would have to average only 10 wins a year, which actually sounds possible, especially if he starts out that post-prime stretch with a 20-win season or two, or at least a few high-teen win-total campaigns.

KERSHAW REINVENTING HIMSELF

As Kershaw ages and loses velocity—both of which are inevitable—there will be the question of whether he can reinvent himself to stay afloat in his mid-to-late-30s and even into his 40s.

Based on what he’s done to this point in his career, signs point to yes. Kershaw broke into the majors at 20 years old, throwing primarily a mid-90s fastball and a knee-buckling curve, which is backed up by FanGraphs’ pitch types.

He’s since advanced that repertoire to also include one of the game’s best sliders and a changeup that’s not half-bad, per FanGraphs’ pitch type values since 2010.

Given his aptitude for learning and perfecting pitches, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kershaw morph himself from a hard-thrower into a crafty lefty who gets by on poise, guile and an ability to exploit hitters’ weaknesses.

A HEALTHY KERSHAW

Of course, this whole script doesn’t take into account much in the way of injury, which is an obvious concern for a pitcher. But again, we’re trying to get Kershaw to 3-0-0, and if he suffers any sort of severe injury at any point along the way, well, it’s not going to happen. So we’ll just pretend it won’t.

KERSHAW AT 300

So that’s how Kershaw gets to 300…

• Win 12 more games in 2013
• Average 18 wins a season in his prime from 2014 through 2020
• Reinvent himself as he enters his mid-30s
• Close out his career with by a 10-year run of 10 wins on average
• Stay healthy the entire time

If the real Kershaw can follow the formula drawn up for our fantasy version, that gives him 301 victories at age 42.

At which point, Kershaw may be the last 300-game winner. Even in our imaginary world.

All statistics come from Baseball Reference, except when otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

FINAL

Los Angeles Dodgers 7 – 2 New York Mets

Home Runs

LAD: Mark Ellis 2 (1,2)

NYM: none

WP: R. Belisario (1-2)

LP: B. Lyon (1-1)

Jon Niese leaves game with lower leg injury. X-rays negative, being called bone contusion. (day-to-day)

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Who’s the hottest pitcher in the majors? There’s Yu Darvish, the Texas Rangers right-hander who nearly threw a perfect game his first time out. Or maybe it’s Atlanta Braves lefty Paul Maholm, who is 3-0 and has thrown 20.1 scoreless innings.

But we can’t forget about Matt Harvey, the New York Mets righty who’s the first pitcher since 1900 to win each of his first three starts while notching 25 strikeouts and allowing six or fewer hits, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Indeed, no pitcher in baseball is off to a hotter start right now—or maybe ever—than Harvey.

Each of those three hurlers has been Cy Young-worthy so far, but frankly, it seems way too early for any award discussion. Or is it?

Which brings us to the question: Do Cy Young winners always get off to hot starts?

When we explored whether Most Valuable Players always get off to hot starts, the answer was a resounding yes. But let’s analyze the arms and see what we can find out.

First, let’s refresh your memory with a list of the Cy Young winners since 2000:

*For the purposes of this research, we’ll ignore Eric Gagne’s 2003 because comparing starters to relievers is more or less futile. For the record, though, Gagne did pitch extremely well that April: In 14.1 innings, the Dodgers closer allowed no runs on six hits and three walks with 24 whiffs. Oh, and he tallied eight saves.

From 2000 through 2012, there were 25 individual Cy Young seasons by starting pitchers, and here are their average stats for the month of April:

That translates to a 3-1 record with a 2.85 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and a 37-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 37 innings in the season’s first month.

Pretty nasty.

But what’s interesting is that not all Cy Young winners are created equal when it comes to April performances.

Focusing on ERA and WHIP, 11 of the 25 individual seasons (or nearly half) actually have been worse than “Cy Young average”—again, a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP—in both stats through April:

Granted, neither stat provides a perfect measure of just how good—or in this case, ungood—a pitcher has been, but taken together, ERA and WHIP give us at least some indication.

What do you notice about the table above? How ’bout the fact that in just about every season since 2000, at least one eventual Cy Young winner has had a so-so (or worse) first month? In fact, 10 of the past 12 seasons featured an award-winning arm who got off on the wrong foot.

But if that’s the case—if a hot start isn’t necessary—then how do these Cy Young winners manage to, well, win the Cy Young exactly?

By getting better as the season progresses, silly.

Let’s shift gears to another statistic: OPS allowed (on base-plus-slugging percentage). You may recall our old metric friends, sOPS+ and tOPS+, from the MVP study. In short…

• sOPS+ is a version of OPS that is weighted to league average, which is 100; for pitchers, an sOPS+ below 100 is better than league average (i.e., good)
• tOPS+ is a version of OPS that is weighted to compare a pitcher’s OPS allowed in a given period of time against his OPS allowed for the entirety of that same season; similarly, a tOPS+ below 100 means a pitcher’s OPS allowed was better in that time frame than it was compared to the season as a whole.

If your eyes just glazed over, these tables will make it easier to digest. This one shows the April sOPS+ for each Cy Young winner over the past 13 seasons:

Basically, the boxes that are shaded green indicate that the pitcher’s OPS allowed in April was better than league average, whereas any boxes shaded red indicate worse than league average. While only four eventual Cy Young winners posted a below-average OPS allowed in April, there also were a handful of others that were only slightly above-average (i.e., Johan Santana in 2004).

In other words, on the whole, these pitchers were very good compared to the league, but they weren’t immune to slow starts.

By the way: What Cliff Lee did in April of 2008 (.361 OPS against), as well as what Pedro Martinez (.475) and Randy Johnson did in April of 2000 (.431), should be illegal.

This next table shows their tOPS+ in April:

Same story: Green is good (above-average), but red is bad (below-average). Except this time, we’re comparing each pitcher’s April OPS allowed to his OPS allowed for the full season in which he won the Cy Young.

You’ll notice a lot more red. In fact, 16 of the 25 Aprils are crimson, meaning a majority of the Cy Young winners since 2000 actually were below-average—for them—as far as OPS allowed in the first month of their award-winning campaign.

What does this all mean? Well, for one thing, it proves that just because Yu Darvish, Paul Maholm and Matt Harvey are in line for crazy-good Aprils, it doesn’t guarantee that some slower-starting ace isn’t lying in wait to pitch his way to the 2013 Cy Young Award.

Because for starters, it’s not always how you start.

All stats come from Baseball Reference.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Clayton Kershaw has picked a great time to enter into contract re-negotiations with the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Actually, the negotiations started back in spring training but, despite Kershaw originally saying he didn’t want them to continue once the regular season started if no deal was struck, they appear to be ongoing. 

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, there is already a strong sense that Kershaw will be the first pitcher to get a contract worth at least $200 million and a baseball official is quoted as saying “I hear they’re already over $200 million.”

It should be pointed out that Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Tmes wrote on April 2 that there was no deal imminent between Kershaw and the Dodgers. Of course, these things can turn in a hurry, so all we can really say is stay tuned. 

Let’s just start with the $200 million mark and what that would mean. The two biggest contracts signed by pitchers happened this offseason. 

First, Felix Hernandez agreed to an extension with the Seattle Mariners in February for seven years and $175 million. 

Just a few weeks later, Justin Verlander signed a five-year extension with the Detroit Tigers that will be tacked on to the two years he has left on a deal he agreed to before the 2010 season. The total value of those contracts guarantees the 2011 Cy Young winner and AL MVP $180 million over the next seven years, with a $22 million option for 2020. 

Any long-term extension for a pitcher is risky due to the nature of the position, but if anyone in baseball has earned the right to be called the richest starter in history, it would be Justin Verlander. 

Even at 30 years old, Verlander has proven himself to be incredibly durable—he has thrown at least 200 innings and made at least 32 starts in six consecutive seasons—and consistent with an ERA of 3.45 or lower and more than 200 strikeouts in the last four years. 

Using Verlander’s extension as the barometer, it is easy to see why Kershaw would have a great case to be the highest paid pitcher in baseball if/when he signs an extension with the Dodgers. 

It also helps that we know the Dodgers are going to spend any amount of money if they feel it will improve their chances to win a World Series. In the last 12 months, they have added $111 million to the payroll with the additions of Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Brandon League and Zack Greinke. 

Magic Johnson, who is part of the ownership group that bought the Dodgers last year, said during the team’s season opener against San Francisco, in which Kershaw threw a complete game shutout and hit a go-ahead home run in the eighth inning, the left-hander will be the highest paid pitcher in baseball. 

It is a terrible negotiating tactic, made worse by the fact that Johnson actually called Kershaw their “Sandy Koufax of today.”

There are two key factors that have to be considered when looking at a long-term extension for a baseball player, especially a pitcher: Age and durability. 

Kershaw was brought to the big leagues in 2008 at the age of 20, so even though he has been around for a long time, he just turned 25 on March 19. It is remarkable what the southpaw has accomplished already despite being just one year older than Chicago’s Chris Sale. 

Certainly, if you were banking on one of these three pitchers (Verlander, Hernandez, Kershaw) to hold their value through an entire length of a contract, you would have to say Kershaw just because he has age on his side. Verlander is the oldest of the group at 30, with Hernandez second at 27 years old. 

The resumes for Verlander, Kershaw and Hernandez are remarkably similar. All three have won a Cy Young award, though Verlander is the only one with an MVP award. All three have proven to be incredibly reliable, making at least 30 starts every full season of their careers. (Verlander debuted late in the 2005 season and made two starts.) All three have consecutive seasons of at least 200 strikeouts—Verlander and Hernandez are at four, while Kershaw is at three entering 2013.

Looking at durability throughout his career so far, Kershaw has been as safe as any pitcher in baseball since his first full season in 2009. He has made at least 30 starts in four straight years, including 98 over the last three years, and thrown at least 200 innings with over 200 strikeouts every year since 2010. 

But the point of a new contract—or at least what the point should be–is to pay for future value, not what a player has already done. That is where baseball is different from a sport like, say, football. 

The NFL, aside from having contracts that are terrible for the players since they can be released on a dime and are always forced to re-negotiate due to the salary cap, tends to pay for what a player will do in the future. 

Major League Baseball teams tend to pay players based on what they have already done. There is no rational argument for the Yankees giving Alex Rodriguez, heading into his age-32 season, a new 10-year, $275 million deal in December 2007, or the Angels giving Albert Pujols his own 10-year contract heading into his age-32 season before 2012. 

Kershaw is one of the rare exceptions where the team giving the extension—in this case, the Dodgers—would be paying for a lot of peak years and a few declining years. 

You do worry about mileage on Kershaw‘s arm at such a young age. Through his first two starts in 2013, the Dodgers’ ace has thrown 15,408 pitches in his career (via Fangraphs). 

While you have to take every case differently, there are a limited number of pitches in an arm before the wear and tear starts to settle in. Throwing a baseball is an unusual act because of all the stress and torque put on an arm, and it is being done 100 times every five days by the typical starting pitcher. 

But until you have some physical evidence that Kershaw is slowing down, the risk of a long-term extension is much lower than it would be for a pitcher older than he is with the same amount of mileage on his arm. 

Kershaw‘s fastball velocity is down a tick this year compared to where it was in 2012 (93.2 to 92.6), via Fangraphs, but he has just made two starts and it can take time for a pitcher to build his arm back up to where it usually is. 

So yes, there is a very strong, very real case to be made that Kershaw‘s extension, whenever he signs it, is more than justified at being over the $200 million mark that Heyman‘s source is hearing. 

That is not a slap in the face of Verlander, who is still regarded as the best pitcher in baseball and will be until he shows he isn’t. It is a testament to how well timed Kershaw‘s negotiations are, how much money the Dodgers are willing to spend and the ever-expanding market for starting pitchers in baseball. 

For more analysis on pitcher contracts, or anything else baseball related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter. 

Follow @adamwells1985

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

A number of players enjoyed big games on Opening Day, but Clayton Kershaw bested them all in his first start of the new season for the Dodgers.

The left-hander shut out the Giants on Monday, allowing just four hits and no walks while striking out seven. If that wasn’t enough, he also hit a solo home run off of Giants reliever George Kontos in the bottom of the eighth to give the Dodgers a 1-0 lead. L.A. went on to win 4-0.

It was another dominant performance in what has been a dominant career to this point for the 25-year-old. He currently sits at 62-37 with a 2.77 ERA and 9.3 K/9 for his career, and he’s captured the NL ERA title each of the past two seasons.

A member of the Dodgers’ rotation at the age of 20, it’s scary to think Kershaw is just entering his prime with what he has already accomplished.

A number of marquee pitchers have received massive contract extensions the past few years, and Kershaw may very well be next. Here’s a look at the notable deals that have been signed recently.

All contract info via Baseball Prospectus.

The one thing that stands out here, aside from what a ridiculous amount of money these guys are making, is the fact that Kershaw is younger than any of them were at the time of their extensions. 

In fact, he’s at least three years younger than everyone besides Hernandez, and those two have a lot in common.

Both already have a Cy Young under their belt, both were in the rotation full-time by the age of 20 and both turned in dynamite performances on Opening Day.

It’s safe to assume Kershaw will eclipse Hamels as the highest-paid left-hander of all time once he does come to terms on an extension, and you have to think Verlander has helped set the market with his extension.

Kershaw will make $11 million this coming season and is under team control through 2014, but the Dodgers will no doubt move to buy out his final year of arbitration and lock him into a long-term deal before he ever nears free agency.

Given what Verlander has accomplished to this point, he deserves to be the highest-paid pitcher in the game, but given the fact that Kershaw is a full five years younger certainly works in his favor.

In all reality, Kershaw has a real shot at being the first $200 million pitcher, and a seven-year, $200 million deal would give him an annual salary of $28.6 million.

He’s likely not going to get any cheaper, as the price of pitching is at an all-time high (see Sanchez, Anibal). If the Dodgers were wise, they’d move quickly to lock up their young ace, as another Cy Young-caliber season will only push his value higher.

My guess is something gets done here within the next couple weeks, and Kershaw falls just short of the $200 million plateau. A seven-year, $182 million deal would give him a nice, round annual salary of $26 million and still make him the highest-paid pitcher ever.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com