Kuzul

Like most people, as soon as the season ended, I made my free agent predictions for the top free agents from Cliff Lee, to Aubrey Huff.

My predictions are not wild, or bold, but were based on which teams needed key players, and which teams would retain some of these players.

Throughout the 2011 Off Season, we’ve seen big free agent acquisitions from teams we would never guess would be in the running, and some teams who seemed to have been hibernating through the Winter Meetings, and beyond that.

The season hasn’t started, but the main part of free agency is pretty much over, so I decided I’d look back at my Free Agent Predictions, my justifications, and what actually happened.

Also, as a bonus, I’ll give my projection for that player, along with a grade for the acquisition.

Some top free agents are not on this list, as I couldn’t make predictions for everyone at the time.

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Spring Training is less than a month away and with that comes the start of many fantasy baseball leagues.  Owners, if your looking to put together that unstoppable team, don’t stress about who are steals and who are busts.  Here is a preview of the top 100 fantasy players for the 2011 season.     

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Ever wonder how you could spend close to a quarter billion dollars on a baseball team (assuming of course that you are not the New York Yankees)?

Try filling your roster with these players and you would have an excellent start.

Here’s a quick run down of the highest paid player at each position entering the 2011 season.

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Heading into the 2011 season, the Philadelphia Phillies are widely believed to be the favorite in the National League East, and maybe even the National League. 

However, to say that a team is without holes is unreasonable; in the case of the 2011 Phillies, there are indeed many questions that remain as they head to Clearwater to begin training.  On Friday, the Phillies packed up their trucks and sent the team’s gear down I-95 to Florida.

Here are the top 17 questions that remain going into Spring Training.

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The Phillies have pulled off some trades for some top pitching talent over the past few seasons. 

In 2008, the Phillies traded Josh Outman, Adrian Cardenas and one other to acquire Joe Blanton. 

In 2009, the Phillies traded Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Jason Knapp to acquire Cliff Lee. Then, in the offseason that year, the Phillies traded Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis D’Arnaud for Roy Halladay.  

During the 2010 season, the Phillies traded J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose and another player for Roy Oswalt.

As you can tell, the Phillies system has been decimated by trades and therefore there is very little talent at the AA and AAA levels that can come up to the major league club and help fill specific needs.

Here are some ways the Phillies can strategically replenish the farm system.

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The Philadelphia Phillies shocked the entire baseball world when they signed Cliff Lee last month to a $120 million contract. Ever since the fans in Philadelphia have been anxiously awaiting the start of the season. With the addition of Cliff Lee to their already-stellar rotation consisting of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, the Phillies will be unstoppable and their opposition has the daunting task of facing two of the four aces every series.

Although the Phillies have seen the departure of fan favorite Jayson Werth, who signed a huge $126 million contract with division rival Washington, they have Domonic Brown and Ben Francisco to fill the void successfully. While the Phillies’ outfield has less depth with the departure of Werth, fans will be eager to see what Brown and Francisco can do.

The Phillies fans are ready to watch their team start the 2011 season and potentially make it to the World Series once again. After losing to the San Francisco Giants in the NLCS this past October, the Phillies have much to prove to themselves: one with their rotation, and two by avenging their NLCS loss.

Expectations could not be higher for the Phillies and I believe they will live up to them.

These are the reasons why 2011 will be a magical year to remember.

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Now that the Cliff and Andy questions have both been answered and put to rest, the biggest immediate concern across Yankee Universe going into spring training appears to be the two big question marks in the back end of our starting rotation.

How crucial is the back end of the rotation to a successful season for us?

Not as much as some might think. Certainly not as crucial as a kevlar bullpen, which we now have.

Hard as it may be for some to recollect it, the 2009 world champion Yankees wound up running their back end rotation by committee to a great extent, much as this year’s team appears about to do.

And it worked beautifully.

Just compare the contributions of the team’s pitching staffs over the last two seasons to see exactly where our wins came from—throwing out the games pitched by the rosters’ No. 4 and 5 starters—and you may take  greater comfort from the moves our Bombers made and didn’t make this offseason.

In 2009, a championship season, the Yankees’ top three starters—Sabathia, Pettitte and Burnett—combined for 46 wins while our bullpen accounted for 40 wins, the most in MLB.

In 2010, a year the team fell a little short of their objective, the team’s top three starters—Sabathia, Hughes and Pettitte—combined for 50 wins while our bullpen, though improving its ERA by nearly a half run, produced just 23 wins.

Since the Yankees led all MLB teams in scoring both years, run support can be safely ruled out as a variable.

So, to summarize, our 2009 front-end arms and bullpen combined for 86 wins without the help of our No. 4 and 5 starters. 

Our 2010 front-end arms—with four more victories to their credit—combined with our bullpen to produce just 73.

That’s a 13-loss differential year over year right there.

The impact of those 2009 bullpen wins becomes even more pronounced when you consider 2009’s championship-winning rotation back-enders Joba Chamberlain and Sergio Mitre combined for a mere 12 wins while last season’s backenders  AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez combined for 20.

Those eight additional victories by 2010’s No. 4 and 5 starters still didn’t make up for the sharp reduction in our bullpen wins.

Put another way, bullpen wins could have easily been the difference between the Yankees winning the AL East or losing it last season—and, consequently, home field advantage in the playoffs.

The point?

Cliff Lee and his maybe 12 to 15 wins would’ve been helpful, no question. And Andy’s return would maybe have provided 11 to 14 wins. 

Maybe, that is, if both managed to stay healthy; hardly a lock for either of them.

No, what we truly needed a whole lot more than either of them this winter was to bulk up our bullpen into a bona fide scary no-man’s land for opposing hitters.

Mission accomplished.

Consider the Yankees’ penchant for long early inning at-bats and late scoring outbreaks, so much so they led MLB  in comeback wins last season with 48.

How many more of those late rallies came up just short due to that shaky bridge from the sixth inning to the ninth?

Now, that’s a bridge to nowhere for our opponents.

Am I saying back-end starters are a nonfactor? Of course not.

I am saying, however, that they’re just not as big a factor as a nasty shutdown door-slamming pen; especially in the case of the Yankees and their present configuration.

By the numbers, at least over the past two seasons, the Yankee bullpen has proved to be a more significant  force in putting up W’s—and not just saving or holding leads—than our back end starters.

Certainly in 2009 it was the difference between winning a championship and just coming close, and possibly the difference between just coming close and no championship this past season.

Of course, I’d love to see Brian Cashman and the Boss’s boys pull off a blockbuster trade for a Type-A starter in the coming weeks and months. And there’s no reason to believe they won’t.

When they do, it’ll be Christmas in July.

In the meantime, though, there are plenty of young and old committee members coming to camp to fill the back end rotation picture out, and plenty to celebrate and anticipate come Opening Day.

You’ve got to believe the Yankees’ front office was thinking about more than just shortening tough outings for a couple of mystery guests in the rotation when they snapped up Rafael Soriano and lefty Pedro Feliciano this offseason. 

The way the former’s contract is structured with opt-outs, it sure wasn’t designed to lock up Big Mo’s successor.

These guys aren’t consolation prizes. They’re key pieces in a proven strategy to win now.

Their additions leverage virtually every member of our relief corps into specific roles in which they can excel, and provide Joe Girardi with multiple options and a path to a win through any lineup, as long as our own lineup keeps scoring like it has.

We may be shy a couple of name brand back-end starters at the moment.

But no serious evaluation of the coming season should allow those relatively minor vacancies to overshadow the direct and major impact this bullpen is going to make in our win column this year with the rotation and lineup we’ve already got.

The pen is truly mightier.

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You will never see it on CNN or Fox News.

It will never appear on the front page of any newspaper across the globe.

You will never see it in a documentary on Discovery or the History Channel.

It will never be spoken of in any church on any given Sunday.

Yet according to many Yankee fans and sports media alike,  Andy Pettitte seemingly walks on water.  He is apparently the Yankees own personal second coming and the only one that can salvage their upcoming season.

Andy Pettitte, all by himself at the ripe old age of 38 and coming off his best statistical season cut short by injury, can save the entire Yankee season single-handedly.  

Apparently.

Andy Pettitte, the man that left the pinstripes for the uniform of the Houston Astros (for whatever reason you want to believe), can single-handedly save the season for Derek Jeter and company just by showing up it seems.  It was apparently because he left that the Yankees never won during his absence and only when he came back did they win again.  Yes, I get it. Right.

Apparently his mojo went on strike last season.

Andy Pettitte, the man who puts everyone through the same “will he or won’t he” dance every off season—the one who needs to decide every off season if he wants to play for the team that put him on the map—has, and he alone, the mojo that can fix what’s wrong with the Yankees of 2011.

Oh YES! Testify my brother!

Imagine that—Andy. Pettitte. Is. A. Super.Hero.

Newsflash.  If the Yankees landed Cliff Lee, you know the other dude that apparently walks on water, the Yankees would not be calling Pettitte and the fans would not be clamoring for his return so much.

If WE GOT LEEEE!!!!!, it would be nice to have Andy too.

Now—WE DID NOT GET #%&^$ LEE!!! WE NEED #^z*(^&$ PETTITTE!

If the Yankees landed Lee, Pettitte would be playing because the pressure would be off.  Without Lee, Pettitte knows he will be looked upon to be a savior.  It’s not a role he wants, never has.

Who the heck wants to come back for the grind with a sketchy back at age 38 if you are expected to hoist the team on it?

Andy Pettitte is many things but stupid is not one of them.

As a Yankee fan, Andy Pettitte will always hold a special place in my heart—but Andy was the one Yankee that taught me to not get used to Yankees staying Yankees.

The Yankees “Desperately Need” Andy Pettitte?

He would be nice to have, he surely could help, but “Desperately Needed”?

Sorry but this Yankee fan refuses to drink the Kool-aid so many of you are apparently drunk on.

One can argue that Andy Pettitte is a borderline Hall of Fame pitcher right now but we know he won’t get in. He is a Yankee and well there is that lil’ PED thing.  No one can argue that he is now, and will always be a legendary Yankee.  No one can argue (except the BBWA and the Elitist Brethren of the H.O.F), that he has been one of the best left handed pitchers in the history of the game.

However, and with all due respect to the many columnist out there including some of my fellow Bleacher Report columnists, stating that the ‘Yankees Desperately Need Andy Pettitte” is quite frankly a joke.

Could they use him?  Absolutely.

Could he help them?  Sure if he stays healthy.

Will he all by his awsome-ness save the season?  Umm…no.

Listen folks, I have been a Yankee fan since 1976.  Andy Pettitte is one of my all-time favorite Yankees, but he is neither the saving grace or nail in the coffin of this team.

It’s time to get real.

Yes I get the fact that he not only knows how to pitch in New York, but he knows how to win in New York.  I get that.

Yes I get that he is a big game pitcher and his presence on the mound motivates the players behind him.

I also understand that he is but one man.  He is 38 years old.  He is prone to injury.  His heart is not 100 percent committed to the game or the team.

Did you get that last part? His heart is not 100 percent committed to pitching.  I don’t think that when he came back from injury last year he was fully committed either.  I think the injury was a wake up call that he just did not want or need to do this anymore—or at least for a whole season.  I think before the season was over last year he knew that was it—or that was it for an entire season.

See where I am going? (Hint…repeated references to “entire season”…hint, hint).

The Yankees missed out on Cliff Lee, whom by the way also does not walk on water despite what the media and some fans believe, and all the sudden the Yankee Universe is coming to an end and Andy Pettitte is the only one with pinstripe tights and cape?

Shoot, why even play the season, just hand the trophy to Philly for the next five years and send everyone on vacation.

There is a reason the games are played on the field and not paper.

Come on people, this is nothing new in the world of the Yankees.  Pettitte would be nice to have but the Yankees are hardly desperate here.

Let’s look at this realistically.  How many games do the starters need to win the East or the Wild card and make it to the playoffs?

In a very strong East and in an improved American League in general, the Yankees, or any team for that matter, will not get into the post with anything less than 90 wins, in my opinion of course.

With a very good staff, okay we will use the Philadelphia Phillies dammit—a team can only hope for 63-65 wins max (18, 15, 12, 10, 8= 63) and that is really pushing the envelope.  Most team only get 40-48 wins per starting rotation but most teams don’t make the playoffs.  A good chance to dance requires a minimum of 55 wins out of the rotation with a decent bullpen backing it up.

The Yankees have, arguably, one of the best pens in the game (on paper). So what about the starters?

What can we expect given the rotation New York is fielding this year WITHOUT Pettitte?

The 2010 San Francisco “World Champions” top three starters won 43 games. They had a rotation of six and their “regular” top five starters won a total of 58 games.

More relative, if slightly less recent, we can look to the 2009 World Champion Yankees who went with a 4 man rotation most of the year and their 4 starters won a total of 55 games. 

Sabathia won 19, Pettitte won 14, Burnett, yes that guy, won 13 and Joba Chamberlain (I just threw up a little in my mouth), won nine.

C.C is still around.  Anyone think he can’t win, oh say 18 games in 2011?

Hughes chipped in eight wins in relief that championship season and turned in 18 wins a year later despite stamina problems the second half which should be corrected come this season.  He may not win 18 games again this year but is anyone doubting he cannot win oh say 14, like Pettitte did in 2009?

Can anyone on the Yankees current Staff win 12?  Yes, A.J Burnett, who averages 12 wins per season, and won 13 in 2009 when the Yankees won it all.  Yes he is coming off a poor season of 10 wins but they Yankees pitching staff is focusing heavily on his mechanics and I believe he can win 12 games this season, simply because he won 13 for New York in 2009.

That’s 44 wins among three starters right there people.

 “Desperate”?

How many wins will Ivan Nova notch?  No one ones but I would not be scared to bet the house on eight wins.

Freddy Garcia has a decent chance to make the Roster.  He rebounded last year and won 12 games for Chicago. I am not fool, so I am not expecting that so let’s be reasonable and give him eight.

Okay.  Of those five starters, if that is how it falls (and who the heck knows), without Pettitte the Yankees starting rotation would notch 60 wins…

“Desperate”?

Garcia does not make it and Sergio Mitre is there? Okay—five wins for him, that’s still 57 wins by starters.

That is still two more than the 2009 World Champion Yankees and one less than the pretenders to the throne last season.

Hell, Sabathia could go down on injury in his first game and everyone else wins less than 10 games and the Yankees finish last.  What would Andy’s presence do then?

There is a reason they play the game one out and one inning at a time people.  No team wins games in the off season.  Calm your doom engine down.

The 2011 Yankee Bull pen, on paper, is a lot stronger than the 2009 version so excuse me if I actually seem hopeful. 

Pettitte, at best, would contribute maybe 14 wins, his yearly average, if healthy and playing a full season which it appears he won’t do.  At age 38,  the chances he works the entire season anyway given his health issues is a huge risk without enough reward for him, his family or the club.

Even if he returned and won 11 games, it is possible that Nova or Garcia can equal that total.

STOP before you go there—no way shape or form am I suggesting Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia are equal to Andy Pettitte.  I am using realistic reasoning here (hopeful is another word), to get everyone off the “we need Andy or Armageddon is a coming’” bandwagon of doom.

Oh and btw, before you start on the “Andy is a big game pitcher and we will need him for the playoffs!”  He is.  I cannot argue with that however, no one knew when he pitched his first post season game that he would be the post season stud he has become.  Another in pinstripes can be born this season, who knows.

Andy Pettitte is a big game pitcher.  Andy Pettitte is one of the greatest Yankees and left handed pitchers in the history of the game.

Andy Pettitte is also one man, aged 38, coming off a great season that fell far short due to injury.

Andy Pettitte is not the answer folks.  He is a cog in the machine—he is not the machine itself.

However, have faith though my friends, all is not totally lost.

Andy Pettitte is also a business man and a smart one at that.  He learned something of value from Roger Clemens, his former mentor.  No, I am not talking about using PEDs.

Pettitte has learned to earn a full season’s salary for half a season of work so if the Yankees are somehow still in the show at the half way mark, rest assured the call to Deer Park Texas will be made and Pettitte will once again don the pinstripes in yet another quest for Glory.

However, it would only happen under certain conditions.

The rotation the Yankees have, as rag tag as it is, is not far off from the cluster mess that showed up in 2008.  If each performs up to expectations or level of talent, the Yankees will be in position to make that call for Mr. Big Game at the mid mark.

Before he answers the call, it must be right for Pettitte. 

In order for that to happen the Yankees must be healthy.  They need Sabathia at his ultimate Cy Young best, Hughes to live up to his hype, Burnett to get his head from out his backside and just pitch and Nova, Garcia or someone else to step up and do the unexpected .

Pettitte will be back for the stretch run is there is one and if and only if it’s almost a certainty they will get in.  Andy wants to be along for the ride.

He just does not want to drive the bus.

Like I said earlier—the man is not stupid.

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If there’s one time of the sports year that everyone watches like a hawk, it’s MLB free agency.  From November until late January (sometimes longer), fans lose sleep over which teams top free agent players will sign with.

Some of these decisions pay great dividends, like C.C. Sabathia when he signed with the New York Yankees.  Other times, players regret locking themselves into long-term deals, like when Adrian Beltre signed with the Mariners.

Thus, let’s take a look at this past season’s free agency class.  Specifically, the players that picked the wrong teams.

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In the 2010 season, the first basemen of the Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Howard, spent a great deal of time on the disabled list.  When doing the math by analyzing the innings played, it shows that Howard played in about seventeen fewer games in 2010 than he did in 2009. 

Of 162 games, missing seventeen games does not sound like that much. Howard usually plays well over 150 games per year.  In 2008, Howard started 156 games and 155 in 2009.  With the injury, Howard only started 139 games in 2010.

Even with missing so much time during the 2010 season, he still produced numbers better than most other players in baseball.  Of 1000+ baseball players, Howard produced numbers good enough for him being tied at 14th rank with the number of home runs. He was 11th in the number of runs batted-in. 

Howard was also ranked 49th for on-base percentage, 25th in slugging percentage and 29th in OPS.

Howard had a very productive season in 2010, although it was certainly not his peak year, that we can blame on the time he missed from injury. 

He did hit for an average of .276 with 31 home runs and 108 runs batted-in.  His on-base percentage was .353 and his slugging percentage was .505 with 152 hits and 59 walks.  He also had 157 strikeouts, which is at a ratio of about a two-percent improvement.

Howard’s numbers were good enough, even with missing all of the time from injury, to be the best and most productive first basemen in the NL East Division.  When comparing Howard to the other first basemen in the NL East, the only player that can actually challenge Howard’s numbers, according to the stats of 2010, is Adam LaRoche.

LaRoche, who was not in the NL East in 2010, batted for an average of .261 with 25 home runs and 100 runs batted-in.  His on-base percentage was .320 with a slugging percentage of .468.

However, LaRoche was still lagging behind the numbers of Howard even though Howard started about 17 less games than usual and less games than LaRoche had played. 

When comparing Howard to LaRoche, it is easy to see that Howard will provide more offense to the team.  Howard beats LaRoche in batting average, home runs, RBIs, on base percentage, slugging percentage and stolen bases. Although neither are particularly a threat to run. 

On the defensive side of the field, they were both credited with the same number of double plays.  LaRoche had a few less errors, but you can expect the same from these two players defensively.

Howard and LaRoche produced similar numbers in 2010.  Although Howard did not beat LaRoche’s numbers all that significantly, that wouldn’t have been true if we were talking about a season that Howard played the entirety of. 

Either way, Howard is the most productive first basemen of the NL East, followed by LaRoche.  The other three first basemen follow these two further down the line.

The New York Mets have Ike Davis and the Florida Marlins have Gaby Sanchez for their role in first base.  These two players are coming off of productive 2010 seasons, but they cannot compare to the top, Howard or LaRoche. 

The Atlanta Braves have Freddie Freeman for first base, but it is hard to speculate how he will fair in 2011 since he is only 21-years-old and has only had 24 major league at bats. 

In those at bats, he had four hits including a double and home run, but only an average of .167. Seeing how Freeman will fare in 2011 will be interesting, but as of right now, I will predict that he will not produce numbers that can compare to Howard, which I think is a pretty safe prediction.

Davis batted for an average of .264 with 19 home runs and 71 RBIs.  He had an on-base percentage of .351 and a slugging average of .440.  Sanchez had an average of .273 with 19 home runs and 85 RBIs.  He had an on-base percentage of .341 and a slugging average of .448.

As these numbers show and Howard continues to prove, he is one of the best offensive producers in baseball, and he is, undoubtedly, the best first basemen that will be found in the NL East for at least the 2011 MLB season. 

If Howard stays healthy, which would be safe to presume about this season, he will certainly shine above the rest of the NL East at first base and most other players in baseball like he has in seasons past.  Howard can afford to play less then 15 games than usual, and still reign towards the top of offensive productivity.

Not only is Howard the most productive first basemen, but he is also the top producer of those who remain in the NL East Division. With the rosters currently set the way they are in the NL East, with all players included, Howard was second with the number of home runs and first with RBIs.

In the NL East, Howard is one of only three players with over 100 RBIs, where the rest of the RBI leaders did not cross 85 RBIs last season.

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