Kuzul

    As I was getting ready for bed last night, I headed over to B/R to see what type of articles I could come up with for my nightly reading. I browsed through the NFL section and found nothing so I headed over to the MLB section and found a gem of sarcasm that I couldn’t help but scoff at. 

It appears that after the San Francisco Giants won the World Series by what most sports fans would say was a miracle run of good luck (and it was, make no mistake about it), Giants fans began to overvalue Matt Cain, and indeed, the entire rotation that pitched them through that World Series vs. Texas. 

Now, most fans rarely, if ever, will so openly discuss their blatant over-valuations of any one player. However, one Giants fan did just that by writing this article about what he thinks the Giants should receive if they decided to trade Matt Cain in the coming months. That fan’s name: Andrew Brining.

It has come to my attention that most San Francisco Giants fans have become disillusioned following the dream run through the postseason, but I had never thought that any of them had fallen this far, this fast. 

Now, I don’t want to be taken the wrong way. Matt Cain is a good pitcher, possibly even a great pitcher, but he is by no means worth what the majority of Giants fans seem to think. As I read over this article (and it’s rather well written) I couldn’t help thinking to myself “What are they drinking over there in San Francisco?” 

Let me begin by saying that if you haven’t read the article, you should. You’ll see what I’m talking about when you get to the first slide proposing a trade with the Orioles. Throughout the comment section, the author was kind enough to explain his position repeatedly to many people who were also kind enough to inform him that he was out of his mind. The problem with him repeating his position is that his position is incorrect. 

Mr. Brining repeatedly states that because the Giants won the World Series, they are the top team in the league. I don’t think that after the offseason they’ve had, or lack thereof, that the Giants (or their fans) should be touting themselves as top dog. Their offense is bad, their pitching is good. Problem is, several teams have tried the “Pitching Wins Championships” approach, and most of them fail. 

It’s true. Pitching does win championships. Pitching is top dog in the playoffs. If you have two pitchers who could be aces on most of the staffs in the league, and a serviceable 3rd starter, you can probably pitch your way through the postseason and through the world series. But make no mistake, offense (and defense) scoring, (and holding your opponent to fewer runs) are what get you to the postseason. 

Take a look at the 2009 Seattle Mariners. Their pitching was FANTASTIC. Felix Hernandez would have been the AL Cy Young winner in ’09 had there not been a masterpiece of a season by Zack Grienke. Their defense was the best in the league by every measurable statistic. Where were they in October? Sitting at home with the regular folk watching the playoffs on tv. Why? because their offense couldn’t get more runs over the plate than the opponent. Had they reached the playoffs, they probably could have won a series or two, possibly even made it to the World Series. 

Now take a look at the 2011 San Francisco Giants. They’ve got the pitching. They don’t have the offense or the defense. It’s going to be very tough for them to repeat. 

Which brings me back to the aforementioned article. Mr. Brining would like you to believe that, should the Giants get an offer on Matt Cain, and should they need to trade him (which they don’t…he’s young, he’s cheap, and he’s good), they can hold out until they get a trade that is absolutely lopsided in their favor. He’s thinking Cain for Hanley Ramirez or Miguel Cabrera here folks. 

Any rational baseball fan would look at these proposed “trades” and tell you they’re all fantasy. There’s absolutely no way any of the teams mentioned would trade the stars mentioned straight across for Matt Cain. Brining has an answer for that too: look at Cain’s body of work in the playoffs. 20 innings of scoreless baseball. That’s fantastic. That’s two and 2/9ths of a game. When you factor in the fact that the Giants had to play 15 games to win the world series, that’s not even 1/5th of the team’s games in the playoffs. 

Giants fans have become so disillusioned that they believe Matt Cain is worth more in a trade than 2010 Cy Young winners Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez, more than 2008 Cy Young winner Cliff Lee was (in both 2010 trades combined) and Lee’s body of work in the 2009 postseason was even more impressive than Cain’s. 

If Texas were to offer the Seattle Mariners Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler in a trade for Felix Hernandez, I think the Mariners would think about it. If they threw in Neftali Feliz to sweeten the deal, Jack Zduriencek would pick King Felix up, twirl him around his head and throw him in the general direction of Texas. 

Brining says that the Giants wouldn’t even consider trading Cain for Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler. I hate to break it to you bud, but Felix Hernandez has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball for the last two years, and even he could be had for that type of deal. Cain isn’t as valuable as King Felix, not by a long shot. Felix Hernandez is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Cain isn’t even top 10, probably not even top 15. 

The whole point of this article was to say this: Stop thinking a player is God simply because he played well during short run in the Playoffs. If San Fran was to be offered any of the deals mentioned in Mr. Brining’s article, they’d jump on those deals in a heartbeat. 

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Before the times of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt, there used to be an ace in Philadelphia that went by the name of Cole Hamels.

After the 2008 season, World Series MVP trophy and championship ring in tow, Hamels signed a three-year, $20.5 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies that would keep him in red pinstripes through 2011.

A couple of years and three aces later, Hamels now finds himself set to begin the 2011 season as the fourth best starter on a loaded pitching staff that is expected to catapult the team into an automatic spot in the World Series.

Alright, it’s not that easy. What also won’t be easy will be re-signing Hamels to another new contract sometime soon that will keep him with the Phillies for the foreseeable future.

After the 2008 season, with Hamels set to go to arbitration, the Phillies structured a new contract that worked for both sides. The three-year deal did not touch his final year of arbitration or any of his free agent years. The deal was unique, however, in the sense that it provided Hamels with the biggest AAV (average annual value) ever on a multi-year deal for a pitcher in his first year of arbitration. 

Now the Phillies will have to work something out all over again, or take Hamels to arbitration after next season. It’s likely not something they want to have to do, but it is certainly possible. He can become a free agent after the 2012 season.

General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has locked key pieces in, including Lee, Halladay, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley, through at least 2013. Besides Hamels, Amaro will have to make crucial decisions on numerous other players.

Jimmy Rollins is slated to be a free agent after next season. Brad Lidge has a hefty club option lined up for 2012, but the Phillies could buy him out after 2011 for just $1.5 million, which seems likely. Ryan Madson, who could be in line to close in 2012, is a free agent after 2011. Raul Ibanez will also become a free agent after 2011, but that won’t be as tough a decision as the others.

There is no question the Phillies will have money to play with, but they’ll have to use it wisely. Regarding the rotation, Halladay is signed through 2013 with a club option for 2014. Lee, with his new contract, will be here through 2015, potentially 2016, if his option vests.

Oswalt will make $16 million in 2011. The Phillies hold a club option for 2012 at the same number, but can buy Oswalt out for $2 million. Right now, it would seem like a relatively safe bet that the Phillies would do such a thing, leaving Hamels as the only truly undecided member of the 2012 rotation.

Hamels will make $9.5 million in 2011, a far cry from any of the numbers Lee, Halladay, or Oswalt will rake in. It’s pretty safe to assume that had Hamels been on the open market this offseason, he could have gotten a deal very similar to Lee’s, maybe for slightly less on the dollar side.

The Phillies’ philosophy since Pat Gillick joined the organization has been to go no longer than three guaranteed years on a contract with a starting pitcher. They have, for the most part, held to that. Lee was a special case that required the Phillies to open up the checkbook for a deal longer than they might have completed in the past. It did show a bit of a change in philosophy, but it was a special occasion.

Could Hamels be another special occasion? While many players have lauded Philadelphia as a great place to play, and Hamels has embraced the area, he’s going to be looking for money. The Phillies can’t expect to be able to go short-term with Hamels.

After a disappointing 2009, Hamels rebounded nicely in 2010. It wasn’t really a surprise. He threw a lot of innings in 2008, and ran into some bad luck in 2009. It was a bad combination for him to succeed. Last year was different, as Hamels posted a 3.06 ERA. The 12-11 record can be discarded; he received some of the worst run support in the league.

The Phillies will have to decide how to fit Hamels in to the future. It’s likely that a five-year contract could be offered. Three probably won’t be enough to keep him here. There is also no way the Phillies will get close to the same AAV that they got on Hamels’ original extension.

A three-year deal for Hamels in today’s market would, conservatively, cost the Phillies somewhere around $50-52 million. If I were Ruben Amaro, I would offer Hamels a new contract sometime next season, and structure it like so:

2012: $15 million

2013: $16.5 million

2014: $17 million

2015: $17.5 million

2016: $18 million

There, of course, would be various add-ons like Cy Young finishes, All-Star appearances, and the like. But that would be the structure, and it would be fair for both sides. It’s a five-year, $84 million deal in total, without bonuses and such. Hamels would be 33 at the end of the deal.

That deal averages out to $16.8 million in AAV, which doesn’t quite put Hamels in the upper-echelon with guys such as C.C. Sabathia, Lee, and Halladay. Something like this might not even be enough to get it done, which is why the Phillies should communicate early and often with Hamels. The Phillies, realistically, should be willing to go up to about $90 million over five years with Hamels.

If talks break down, there is always the option of trading Hamels next off-season, or even in-season, for a package built around youth. That’s something that should be off in the distance, though. The Phillies need Hamels, and Hamels needs the Philllies.

All signs would point to Hamels sticking around for a long time to come. While the super-rotation may only be in action for one season, the true ace of the Phillies’ future is Hamels.

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In today’s age of professional sports, it’s not too often that you find superstar-caliber players that truly value winning championships over the biggest, most lucrative contract one can get his hands on when testing the free agent waters.

Every pro athlete in every sport claims that their No. 1 goal is to win a championship. They claim that it’s what they come to the ball park every day for, why they practice, why they play the game, however in most cases, it’s not really why they’re in the game.

It’s all about money in today’s generation.

With money taking over as the top priority of all in both sports and reality, it’s rare to find a player or the average folk who would take less money to ensure happiness for their family. Nine times out of 10, the player is going to go where the money is at.

Not Cliff Lee.

Lee turned down about $20 million from the New York Yankees to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies because he loved his short time in Philly, and felt that they gave him the best chance to win a World Series over New York and Texas.

The Yankees reportedly offered the 32-year-old lefty a seven-year, $148 million contract to play in the Bronx. New York’s contract would have guaranteed Lee $132 million. He signed a five-year, $120 million deal with the Phillies.

Another major factor in Lee signing in Philly was that’s where his family would be the most happy. The Phillies fan base embraced Lee, and he became an instant favorite when they acquired him from Cleveland at the trade deadline in 2009.

Lee was 7-4 with a 3.39 earned run average in 12 starts with three complete games for the Phils. He wrote his legacy in Philly during the postseason when he was 4-0 in five games with a 1.56 ERA. He threw 40.1 innings with two complete games.

The name Cliff Lee reached legendary status in the city of brotherly love.

For the Phillies, it’s not the first time a superstar turned down more money to come to Philadelphia. In fact, it’s the second straight winter the top prize took considerably less money to play for the Phightens.

Last offseason, Roy Halladay agreed to waive his no-trade clause to come to Philly and signed a three-year, $60 million extension. It’s a little bit of a different animal in Halladay’s case because he was acquire in a trade, but it’s still the same principal.

Halladay made a name for himself as the game’s top pitcher for more than half a decade. Had he reached free agency, he would have been heavily rewarded with a huge contract. Let’s just say, he would have made at least $60 more million than he did when he signed his extension with Philadelphia.

Doc cited that the reason he wanted to play in Philly was that he made enough money in his career, and at this point in his career, it was more important for him to have an opportunity to win a World Series.

The irony here is that Ruben Amaro Jr. traded Lee to Seattle when he acquired Halladay to replenish the farm system that lost seven players in obtaining Halladay and Lee at the deadline. It was not fully about the money.

That enraged Phillies fans even though they were getting the league’s best arm. The reason was if it wasn’t broke, why fix it?

Lee is the game’s best southpaw, no question. His dominance the last couple years proves the point, and his play in the last two playoffs makes it even stronger. When you had a chance to go into a season with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee atop your rotation, you’re going to be the favorites.

Amaro opted not to do that because he didn’t think he could resign Lee last winter, and wanted to get more prospects lost in getting both pitchers.

In trading Lee, Amaro acquired Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee.

Sounds like one heck of a master plan.

Visit the Broad Street Scoop for more of Tom’s coverage of the Philadelphia Flyers, Phillies, and the NHL and MLB. Follow Tom on Twitter: @Tom_Dougherty. E-mail him at: todougherty@gmail.com

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Shortly after former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke didn’t get traded to the Washington Nationals on Sunday, I wrote a story about the Denny McLain trade back in 1970 and suggested that had Greinke come to Washington, things would have turned out just as bad for the Nationals as it did for the Senators some 40 years earlier.

But reader “Mike K” left a comment on that story yesterday and reminded me that the trade-that-almost-was was less like the Denny Mclain for everyone-good-on-the-Senators-roster and more like a trade from the dark days of the Nationals’ former persona.

Back when they were still the Montreal Expos.

Now, I know that some of you will say that this trade occurred because Bud Selig and Major League Baseball—then the owners of the team—told General Manager Omar Minaya to begin the process of contracting the team. The Expos were to just fade away into baseball history along with the Minnesota Twins.

While that is certainly true, the fact is that the Expos were actually in a pennant race in the summer of 2002 and traded three prospects and a major leaguer to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon. At the time, Colon was 29 and had averaged 15 wins per season since the late ’90s. Halfway through the 2002 season, Colon was 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA and seemed headed for the Cy Young Award.

But he never got the chance. He was traded in late June to Montreal for first baseman Lee Stevens, second baseman Brandon Phillips, outfielder Grady Sizemore and pitcher Cliff Lee.

Yeah.

Though Stevens had averaged 21 homers and 75 RBI over the previous seven seasons, he was 34 and was batting just .190 at the time of the trade. he retired after the 2002 season.

It’s the other three that make you shake your head.

Brandon Phillips was just 21 when he was traded to Cleveland. He had averaged .286-9-62 with 28 stolen bases in three minor league seasons. He was traded to the Reds in 2006 and has since averaged .275-23-87, won two Gold Gloves and was an All Star last season.

Grady Sizemore was even younger, just 19 when the trade occurred. In three seasons, Sizemore averaged .284-5-60 with a .383 on-base percentage in the Expos farm system. He became a major league regular in 2005 and has since then averaged .276-28-85 with 28 steals and a .368 on-base percent. Like Phillips, Sizemore has won two Gold Gloves and has gone to the All Star game.

Cliff Lee averaged 6-4, 3.89 in two seasons in the Expos minor league system. He averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings and looked like a future All Star. He joined Cleveland in 2004 and has since averaged 16-9, 3.88 for the Indians, Phillies, Mariners and Rangers, is an All Star and won the Cy Young Award in 2008.

In his half-season with Montreal, Colon went 10-4 with a 3.31 ERA. He was traded to the Chicago White Sox that winter for Rocky Biddle, Jeff Liefer and Orlando Hernandez.

Over the next three seasons, he continued to pitch well, averaging 18-11, 4.09 for the White Sox and Angels. By 2006, injuries took their toll and Colon has won just 14 games over his last four years.

There may have been more lopsided trades in major league history, but I sure can’t think of them at the moment. For a total of 10 major league wins, the Expos gave up four Gold Gloves, a Cy Young Award and five All-Star appearances.

So replace Cliff Lee with Jordan Zimmermann. Remove Brandon Phillips and insert Danny Espinosa. Forget Grady Sizemore; now it’s Drew Storen. In three or four years, Zack Greinke will be on the downside of his career and those three current Nationals will be solid major league players.

Will they be as good as those three prospects traded by the Expos? It’s hard to tell, but certainly each has the potential to be very bit as good. But really, that’s not the point. Why trade away so much talent for so much uncertainty?

With Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore, this first chapter of Washington Nationals’ history would have been far different.

Let’s make sure that the second chapter isn’t just a rewrite of the first. Keep the kids, Mike. Keep the kids.

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When 2008 AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies to boost an already stacked starting rotation, many people started handing them the 2011 World Series championship.

Not so fast though. Another very good team has also made some huge moves this offseason. Of course, I am speaking of the Boston Red Sox, who traded for All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and signed All-Star outfielder Carl Crawford.

Keep in mind that despite having a very banged up team all year and missing the postseason, Boston still won 89 games. With these additions they are going to be much, much better in 2011. In fact, I think they’re going to be so good that they should easily be the favorites in the MLB.

For starters, they still have a great pitching rotation. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz were both great last year, anchoring the staff. Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka all had their struggles last year, though.

I can almost guarantee that Beckett and Lackey will bounce back next year, and put up very good numbers. You never know what to expect from Daisuke, but he could also deliver a great year.

You could make a very convincing argument that Boston’s rotation is better than Philly’s, and quite frankly, I think it is.

Sure, Halladay and Lee are a better 1-2 punch than Buchholz and Lester, but not by a lot. I do believe that Beckett, Lackey, and Matsuzaka is a better 3-5 part of the rotation than Oswalt, Hamels, and Blanton.

This is partially because I look at Oswalt as a great National League pitcher, but if you put him in a big game against a great American League lineup, I don’t like his chances. After that, Hamels is good, but I think both Beckett and Lackey are better. I also like Matsuzaka over Blanton in the 5 spot, which could be very important.

As far as the bullpen goes, this is obviously in Boston’s favor. The Phillies’ entire pen is shaky. The only guy you can count on to deliver solid numbers is set-up man Ryan Madson. Brad Lidge is one of the most inconsistent closers there is, and the rest of their bullpen is really just a mess.

Boston’s bullpen is anchored of course by Jonathan Papelbon. Sure, Lidge had a better ERA last year, but Papelbon had 37 saves, 10 more than Lidge. I’d much rather hand the ball over to Papelbon in a one run game. Daniel Bard is also an excellent set-up man, posting an ERA under 2 last year, with 32 holds.

Now, to the lineups of these two elite teams. As far as the Phillies lineup goes, I really think they lost a huge piece of the puzzle when Jayson Werth decided to sign with the Nationals.

Sure, they still have Utley and Howard as power presences in their lineup, but they no longer have a big power threat right handed bat. This means they’ll either have to slide Polanco up to fifth or will be forced to bat three consecutive left handed hitters in the middle of the order, which will be much easier for a bullpen to manage.

The Phillies still have Rollins, Victorino, Howard, and Utley, but I think the loss of Werth could be very costly.

The Red Sox lineup, however, is very balanced.

They now have great speed in their order with Crawford and Ellsbury, and will be running all over teams next year. The middle of their lineup is also going to be stacked, with power threats Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youikilis, J.D. Drew, and David Ortiz.

You also can’t forget about possibly the best all around player on the team in second basemen Dustin Pedroia, who should be able to hit well over .300 and drive in a good amount of runs.

All this comes from a Yankees fan. While most people will consider Philadelphia favorites, I think it will be Boston holding the trophy come next early November.

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Move over Cliff Lee, because this move will make more of an impact than Lee going back to Philadelphia. Zack Greinke was dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday morning and this shifts the entire outlook of the National League.

The Brewers finished third in the National League Central last year, 14 games back of the Cincinnati Reds. Milwaukee was not light in hitting, but struggled mightily on the mound. They finished 12th in runs scored, but were 26th in ERA.

The ERA number should change drastically.

This move was made with the plan of revamping the starting rotation. Going into next season, the Brewers had Yovanni Gallardo (3.84 ERA, 200 Ks in 2010), Randy Wolf (4.17 ERA in 215 innings) and recently acquired Shaun Marcum (3.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in Toronto).

This makes them an immediate player in the NL Central and the National League as a whole. If you take a look at the divisions and really break down the rosters, there were only a few teams who could have competed.

In the West, it is San Francisco’s division to lose.

The Dodgers are picking up scraps from other teams and are in total dysfunction. Colorado cannot stay healthy and have to hope for another stellar season from Carlos Gonzalez to stay close.

The Diamondbacks and Padres have already mailed it in for 2011.

There is no legitimate contender for Philadelphia in the East.

The Mets are still trying to figure out their offense and have no stand out pitcher except for Johan Santana. Jason Bay needs to stay healthy.

Florida has a solid core of young players, but without Dan Uggla in the middle of the lineup, they are no match for anybody.

I wonder how much Bobby Cox retiring will affect the Braves. The more pressing issue is what they do for a closer.

Billy Wagner is retired and they may need a bullpen by committee at the beginning to figure that part out.

Atlanta’s offense is questionable as well. Sure, they have Brian McCann and Jason Heyward but after that, who?

Chipper Jones is a shell of himself. Matt Diaz is gone. Alex Gonzalez and Troy Glaus are another year older.

The Washington Nationals are not at this stage yet. They have a great deal of young talent, but they are not ready to make the leap yet, especially without Steven Strasburg.

This leaves the Central, which is now wide open.

It looks to be a three team race between the Brewers, Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals.

The young Reds team received their first taste of postseason baseball, only to be swept away by the Phillies. The Cardinals did not have enough gas in the tank to make a September run.

For the Reds, youth is on their side. Their young pitchers, Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez, have another year of experience under their belts and for Volquez, hopefully a healthy season.

Joey Votto is one of the premier players in baseball.

The Cardinals have the best player on the planet in Albert Pujols and one of the best one-two punches in baseball (Carpenter and Wainwright) when healthy.

The Brewers now have front of the line pitchers to be able to matchup with the others in the division.

This is also a more complete team than the one with CC Sabathia in 2008. The rotation is deeper, the lineup is more mature and they have a solid guy at the end of the bullpen with John Axford (24 saves in 27 chances).

They will make a run at the playoffs and, if they get in, could be very dangerous.

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The Milwaukee Brewers pulled the trigger on a big-time trade Sunday, and no it wasn’t the much talked-about Prince Fielder move, as they acquired disgruntled Kansas City Royals ace Zack Greinke.

That begs the question, where does Greinke fall in amongst the best of the National League? Between the St. Louis Cardinals duo of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, the Philadelphia Phillies “Big Four” and the San Francisco Giants duo of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, among others, the NL is not short on great starting pitching.

So here is the list of the NL’s ten best pitchers for 2011 and where Greinke falls into the mix now that he has joined Milwaukee.

Begin Slideshow

Zack Greinke was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers around 9:30 Sunday morning.  Does this announcement make him an automatic favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award?  After all, he did win the award in the American League in 2009.  Here are 10 pitchers who will compete with Greinke for the award in 2011.  

Begin Slideshow

Zack Greinke is finally on the move. The Kansas City Royals ace was traded today to the Milwaukee Brewers for a collection of top prospects, including shortstop Alcides Escobar, center fielder Lorenzo Cain and pitchers Jeffrey Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi. The Brewers will also receive shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt and $2 million in cash.

After two months of debate and speculation, Royals GM Dayton Moore pulled the trigger and sent Greinke to as far away from the AL Central as possible. It’s the second major trade for the Brewers this offseason, who acquired Toronto Blue Jays ace Shawn Marcum for top prospect Brett Lawrie.

But does the combination of Greinke and Marcum suddenly give the Brewers one of the best rotations in the National League? Let’s take a look at where they rank among the top five rotations in the league.

Begin Slideshow

He who hesitates is lost. Or, in my experience, he who sleeps in misses the bus.

The Yankees were looking good. The assumed front-runners to nab Cliff Lee, the Yankees somehow lost him to a late arrival to the party, the Philadelphia Phillies. Apparently, Lee decided on Philly because of the “fans and a great atmosphere” and also hinted that it may have been what his wife wanted.

Whatever the case, Philadelphia is sure to have a “Merry Cliff-mas” and “Happy Hol-Lee-Days” this year, while Cashman and the Yankee front office friends are and will most likely continue to scratch their heads wondering what the hell happened.

When they recover from that, they are faced with some daunting problems.

The first of which is how they will compete with the Red Sox. The day has finally come when the world looks at what has happened so far in this offseason and sees the Red Sox somehow having a more productive bidding season than the Yankees.

(Gasp)

It seems to be true. The Red Sox have made astounding offensive upgrades, adding two of the game’s best—Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford—to an already dangerous lineup. If the season began today, it sure looks like the Red Sox would be the team to beat in the AL East.

Think about it.

The Rays seem to be a third place team at best this year, losing Crawford and others to free agency. The Orioles will go on their usual April run and shut down for the year. The Blue Jays could turn out to be a good team and could possibly compete with the Rays for third place, but with their pitching staff at the moment, they won’t be able to keep up with the Red Sox or Yankees.

That leaves—you guessed it—the Red Sox and Yankees. The lineup already swings in favor of the Sox, and, assuming Josh Beckett stays healthy and Andy Pettitte retires (which the Yankees and Pettitte have hinted at), the starting pitching goes to Boston as well.

That’s not to say all hope is lost for the Yankees. Things happen, and there was no better example of that than the Red Sox in 2010. Plagued by injuries, their third-place finish was excellent considering what that many injuries can do to a team.

My point is, if everything were to go as planned in life, the Yankees would appear to have no shot right now. But, baseball is a crazy game. Keep your fingers crossed New York, and Mr. Cashman, please bring us some holiday cheer (in other words, get us some arms to help our rotation compete)!

Merry Christmas, and Go Yankees!

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