Kuzul

BY: ANTHONY BARATTA

December 14^th, 2010

“Start spreading the news….

 I’m leaving today….

I want to be a part of it….

In old….??Philadelphia??”

“The stars at night…

Are big and bright…

Deep in the heart of?? PHILLY??”

By now everyone’s heard it.  In a surprise move, Cliff Lee, has snubbed his Pinstriped and Lone Star suitors, in favor of his former team, the Philadelphia Phillies.  Reports surfaced last night, that the Yankees deal had bottomed out (Hard to believe huh? The Yankees not getting a big name player they coveted in the off-season… since when?).

The deal, worth $120 million over five years, is a sharp decline from the lucrative 7 year offers from Texas and New York, which were thought enough to land the hot-commodity left-hander. 

Bringing Lee to Philadelphia sets up one of the most dominating rotations in the history of Major League Baseball.  Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt, on paper, certainly look to be enough to land the Phillies back in the World Series after they were derailed by the white hot San Francisco Giants last year. 

That is, at least on paper. 

The baseball season is still approximately two months away, and there are still names out on the market to be signed.  Obviously, none of them compare to the names already signed/traded (Gonzalez, Crawford, and now Lee), but it should be interesting to see how the rest of the offseason shapes up. 

Yankees and Rangers fans, dismayed at losing out on Lee, now are looking to their respective front offices for a swift maneuver to somehow counteract losing Lee. Looking at both teams, plenty of questions arise after losing out on such a big name.

THE YANKEES:

They seem to have a lot more to be concerned with than Texas now that they have  fallen out of the Lee chase.  More than likely, their first move will be to try convincing Andy Pettitte to come back for one more season. 

Obviously after Pettitte, the pitching cupboard is pretty bare in free agency.  Even so, assuming Pettitte returns for one last year in Pinstripes, expect the Yankees to look into the trade market for another starter. 

The question though, is who? Zack Greinke? Josh Johnson? Mark Buehrle? Felix Hernandez? Carlos Zambrano? 

Out of those four, it seems likely Zambrano or Buehrle could be headed for the Bronx if the price is right for the Yankees.  Greinke, Johnson, and Hernandez all would command a hefty price for the Yankees one that General Manager Brian Cashman would be unwilling to pay. 

If, in fact the Yankees cannot find a trade partner, they will turn to AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes to put in the best years of their careers in 2011.  Both starters are enigmas, so can they really be trusted? Only time will tell, but don’t expect the Yankees to have to answer that question, because I’m fairly certain they will make a trade in the coming weeks.

THE RANGERS:

The addition of Lee last season propelled this team into the post season.  Lee gave them the ace they desired for so many years. 

Now, the subtraction of Lee gives them SLIGHTLY less to worry about than the Yankees.  I say slightly because, unlike the Yankees, the Rangers are a younger team.  However, without Lee’s return, the Rangers are left to ponder many questions as well.

Can C.J. Wilson step into the shoes of an ace and fill them out as the organization expects him to? 

Will the youngsters, Tommy Hunter, and Derek Holland, be able to repeat strong 2010 campaigns?

Will Neftali Feliz continue to dominate in the closer role?  

Can Colby Lewis slide in behind Wilson and maintain his attempt at career resurgence? 

All of these are valid questions that Ranger fans are sure to be asking.

One pitcher who is likely to find his way to Arlington now that Lee has left is Carl Pavano.  Pavano has also found a fresh start to his career after suffering multiple injuries during his stint with the New York Yankees. 

Winning 17 games last season, and 14 in 2009, Pavano looks to get a solid contract from teams searching for decent starting pitching.  Expect the Rangers to jump at him and even sign him away from the Twins by January.  That should give the Rangers at least a decent shot at repeating as AL West champs. 

The answers to all these questions and more will begin to unfold more clearly as the off-season comes to a close. The story of the 2011 Major League Baseball season begins to be written.  As it stands right now, the Phillies are holding the pen.  

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When the Mariners traded Cliff Lee to Texas last July, the focus was on having Justin Smoak as part of that package.

Unfortunately, much of the talk from that trade has not been the potential of Smoak, but the issues that come with one of he other pieces of that deal.

Josh Lueke.

In 2008, Lueke faced a rape charge that was later reduced to false imprisonment with violence, which to he plead no contest. Neither crime should be taken lightly, obviously. The original charge is the one that the court of public opinion will always charge him with and he’ll face lots of negative press and fan reaction for that.

The Mariners and Rangers had a public spat about how this information was disclosed and what happened after the Mariners fully knew what was going on. Carmen Fusco, pro scouting director, was fired. Jack Zduriencik uncomfortable read from a script as explained the situation to the media. The “Refuse to Abuse” program grew a collective look of befuddlement.

Here’s the real problem in all of this:

Josh Lueke has major league talent.

If this were some minor league fodder, we can probably safely assume the Mariners would have just sent him back or cut him loose. But, because he has a big arm and projects as a late inning strikeout machine, here we are facing an uncomfortable situation.

The Mariners had been quiet on the situation since. When talking about prospects, Lueke was left out. When talking about Arizona Fall League success stories, Lueke was left out.

Then came a piece on the Mariners official website where Jack Zduriencik was quoted as saying “We view Smoak as a middle-of-the-lineup bat and Lueke as a late-inning guy. Both should be with us in 2011.””

Josh Lueke was not left out. Zduriencik has become known as someone who chooses his words wisely. I’ve gone to events to see him speak candidly a couple times. When he’s asked a question, it’s as if you can see the wheels turning before he answers. He’s an intelligent man who knows about perception and how things can take off if that perception isn’t reality.

So, to have Zduriencik change course probably means the Mariners are having serious thoughts about putting Lueke on the active roster at some point in 2011. That might not be opening day and it probably won’t be the home opener either. My guess would be he gets added during a road trip in the first couple months of the season.

Of course, this also could be very careful plotting by Zduriencik. The Seattle community wasn’t willing to hear about the greatness of this guy with such a bad label, especially during a tumultuous season. However, essentially removing Lueke from existence almost certainly diminished any remaining trade value he had. So, did Jack possibly wait for the dust to settle to start slowly reintroducing the thought of Lueke playing in Seattle, while also trying to raise his trade value?

This is a subject that pulls hard at a lot of baseball fans. How do you root for a convicted criminal? Does the fact that the charges were lessened change your mind at all? Do you believe in giving people second chances? Where do you draw the line in wanting your team to have the best chance to win or having the most trade leverage? Why should this man be permitted to be a role model for children?

There are a lot of questions here that I cannot answer. We all have extremely strong opinions on this, especially those of us who have been touched personally by the crime he was originally charged with.

Whether we agree with Lueke’s inclusion on the team or not, there are 59 days until pitchers and catchers report, and the looming issue has started to be addressed.

Discussion on this subject is welcome in the comments section below. Please, though, keep them civil. I’d like to point out that I’ve tried to not show an opinion in this piece, but only lay out the facts.

Alex Carson is a Seattle Mariners writer and blogger. You can follow him on Twitter @AlexCarson or email him comments, questions or concerns at alexcarson.br@gmail.com

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Perhaps it’s the beard.

He just didn’t want to shave it on someone else’s terms. Not even for all the extras the pinstripes were throwing at his wife…I mean him. Can you blame the guy?

Was Cliff Lee scared of New York? He says no, according to the New York Post. 

The New York Post quotes Lee: 

“There wasn’t anything that scared me away from New York,” 

“I wasn’t scared to play there. I wasn’t any of that. It was just I wanted to have all my options in front of me. Once the Phillies were there, it was relatively close to everything, it was a no-brainer for me.”

Plus, he was quoted on WFAN NY stating that Philly fans “don’t need a teleprompter to tell them to cheer.” This was probably more of a dig at the Ranger fans than the Yankees, but still. Lee has returned home. 

So where does that leave Philly? Well, let’s see. Roy, squared. Hollywood Hamels. Now Cliff Lee? It’s certainly going to be tough to be the number 5 in Philadelphia. 

As for NL East competition? Go ahead Metsies. Terry Collins, keep rebuilding. Maybe one day your Lego pieces will turn into big boy buildings. Until then, the Phillies architectural genius is dwarfing your childish abode. Perhaps it’s time to lose the “re” and just start building. And imitation is not offensive at this point. After all, the Mets built Citi Field in the shadow of Citizens Bank Park. Perhaps it’s time to take some lessons on how to build a team. 

Also, how is it that both Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay prefer Philadelphia over New York? And both accept LESS money to come to the cheesesteak capital? Move over Miami, there’s a new Heater trilogy in town. The only problem is, there are four guys capable of the top three spots. Yikes.

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Four aces is almost a guaranteed win in poker. However, the Phillies’ “four aces” will not guarantee them any more World Series rings…yet.

Even with the addition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies are not on a plateau above the rest of the MLB.

As an avid Phillies fan, I consider myself to be unbiased on this subject, and though I wish it were not true, I believe that the Phillies are going to be knocked out in the NLCS or World Series.

The Phillies have an amazing starting rotation now; however, they will not be able to finish games with their bullpen. The Phillies seemed to be fixing their bullpen late in the season, but they do not have the shutdown bullpen they had during their 2008 World Series run.

In ’08, the Phillies had a perfect Brad Lidge (41-of-41 in the regular season and seven more saves in the postseason), whose only blown save was in the All-Star Game, and a shutdown “Bridge to Lidge” in Ryan Madson. Besides Lidge and Madson having career seasons, the rest of the bullpen was clutch, and the entire team pitched well when it mattered, having a 3.07 ERA in the postseason.

The bullpen was the backbone of the ’08 team, and even though they only had a few good starters, the bullpen held the opposing team whenever they had to.

The Phillies had great starting pitching last year too, with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt (acquired via trade with Houston) making up H2O, and they doused many teams whose offenses were on fire. The Phillies also proved that starters are not enough for a winning team.

H2O pitched well, and Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick and the rest of the starters weren’t too shabby either. However, you can shut out every team, but you won’t win without an offense. The Phillies offense is just too inconsistent to pull off a postseason run, especially when the best pitchers are still around. The Phillies’ starters did reasonably well against the Giants in 2010, but the offense just couldn’t help them out.

An offense that struggled last year will be worse this year if not addressed. The Phillies lost Jayson Werth to the Nationals, and though Werth did not have a great 2010 season, his All-Star production is to be replaced by second-year player Domonic Brown.

Brown had a decent start in the majors, but he is still young and inexperienced and cannot be relied upon to be as cool in the postseason as All-Star Jayson Werth, who has already been there three times with the Phillies.

Losing Werth was a big loss, and in an aging lineup like Philadelphia’s, which includes seven of eight batters who are 30-plus years of age (and have been riddled with injuries), the Phillies need to acquire a more consistent bat that that of 31-year-old Ryan Howard. Howard struggled mightily in the playoffs, and his strikeouts are a major area of concern.

If the Phillies lineup can stay healthy or add another bat, they will manage, but asking such an old lineup to stay healthy is asking a lot.

If the Phillies do not acquire a good bat and/or stay healthy, as well as a decent bullpen arm (perhaps Chan Ho Park again), then they will most likely lose in the playoffs.

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TV show co-host LuAnn Cahn is “Pitching for Cliff Lee”. This is Cahn’s attempt to get the newly-signed pitcher to appear as a guest on The 10! Show.

Cahn plans on having a new attention-getting gimmick each day until Lee appears on The 10! Show. She has also started a petition to help make this happen.

The idea was sparked when Lee returned to Philadelphia, after turning down offers from the Yankees and Rangers.

Cahn’s initial interest peaked, when she noticed that her co-host Bill Henley was very vocal about Lee’s 2009 departure. He like many Philadelphian’s could not understand why they traded Lee.

Henley also made several remarks about Lee being in the World Series, while the Phillies sat at home.

Needless to say this would be a treat for them both.

In closing, it would be great to see a national sports figure come on a local show that supports his team. So, if you live in the Philadelphia area and would like to help sign the petition below.

In the past, Phillie’s stars such as Cole Hamels, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have appeared on the local show. All were promoting outside projects so this would be the first time a player came on this show just because he can.

The 10! Show is a talk show similar to Regis and Kelly, just localized for the Philly area. It can be seen weekdays at 11 AM on NBC 10.

WATCH THE CLIP:

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/shows/10-show/Campaigning_for_Cliff_Lee_Philadelphia-112014409.html

SIGN THE PETITION:

http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/pitchingforclifflee/

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The New York Yankees are once again the center of the baseball world this off-season.

Drama tends to shadow any sports teams that exist in New York, but the Yankees manage to draw the most.

Blame it on the team’s history of success or the owner’s outlandishly deep pockets. Whatever the reasoning, it becomes irrelevant.

Fact is that people love to hear about what the Yankees are up to, lovers and haters alike. With emotions running so high whether you are playing or watching sports, untrue and over-exaggerated stories start to sound factual.

Here are a few off-season fictions and facts that New Yorkers are immersed in:

1. “And they just had him slip away in free agency despite outbidding the winning Phillies by about $50 million” – Joel Sherman, NY Post.

From my “non-sports fan” girlfriend, to my mom and even my doorman, all have stated that Cliff Lee taught the Yankees a lesson, as if the Universe should be very concerned for the future. Walking away from $30-50 million to NOT have to wear the pinstripes should speak volumes about the business approach the Yankees take.

Problem is this number was so overly exaggerated, as the Phillies will be paying Lee $18 million in 2011, $25 million for the next four and, if goals are fulfilled, Lee will pocket $27.5 million in 2016.

The Yankee offer was $138 for seven years. You do the math, because I can’t seem to find where the $30+ million dollars are hiding out?

THE FACT is Lee wanted to be a Philly, loves to hit and enjoys playing in the NL. The money had no weight because the offers were all in the same league. So, Yankee fans can stop worrying, but it is time for Philly fans to welcome their team into the “Evil Empire.”

1. “Brian Cashman may believe he has a championship-caliber team, but the oddsmakers no longer view the Yankees as World Series favorites.” – Mark Feinsand, New York Daily News

Not getting Lee has somehow made the 2011 Yankees into non-contenders. Words like “desperate”, “trouble” and “finished” have been the theme, along with the Red Sox making the World Series without question.

This theory is ludicrous, as the Yankees are still a competitive team.

Taking no credit away from Boston’s GM Theo Epstein, who did his job superbly this off-season by acquiring Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Boston also lost Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, who were the glue that held Boston together in 2010 when more starters were on the DL than on Coach Terry Francona’s roaster.

Yes, the Red Sox improved by getting faster on the bases, an area which was never strong to begin with, so it will make some difference.

This is a free country, and everyone is entitled to an opinion, but predicating unreasonably only makes the source lose complete creditability. For anyone to say the Yankees team is screwed next season is so off base it’s preposterous.

1. “While the New York Yankees’ 2010 season came to a disappointing close, it would still appear inevitable that the team will want to re-sign Derek Jeter, its franchise shortstop. But it appears just as inevitable that his on-field performance isn’t worth nearly as much as he will likely want to be paid.” – Tephen J. Dubner, New York Times.

The performance of Yankees shortstop, and Captain, Derek Jeter has always had its critics, but he continually proved them wrong up until 2010 when Jeter’s slump seemed to be never-ending and the media said he was finished.

Yes, Jeter is 36 and age does eventually catch up to everyone, but to say he will never see productive days again is just stupid.

One out of seventeen seasons is pretty good and surely gives creditability in Jeter’s favor that it was a fluke. To pounce on Jeter like wolves and state that a retirement home seems a better fit than Yankee Stadium is just pure jealousy rearing its ugly head.

Players like Jeter should be praised no matter what because the sports world is now filled with celebrities who take their talents for granted.

Athlete’s respect for the game, whether it is football, baseball or basketball is becoming extinct. It’s all about “getting mine”, and “what did I accomplish”.

Kids everywhere idolize athletes and to be so quick to dismiss a man like Jeter is embarrassing. I can promise you that Derek Jeter will have a great year next season, if only just to prove everyone wrong is good enough for me. Still, Jeter did win the Gold Glove again so that ship has not nearly sunk at all and who’s to say attitude is not valued even more than talent.

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Now that Cliff Lee has finally made his decision, spurning superior offers from both the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers, we can move on.

Lee has joined a starting rotation that already includes last season’s Cy Young winner, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.

The addition of Lee gives the Phillies arguably the best rotation in baseball; fans of NL East teams are seeing flashbacks of the Atlanta Braves‘ rotations of the 1990s.

The Phillies signed Lee to a five-year, $120 million deal which could grow to $135 million over six seasons.

After looking over how the deal breaks down in terms of dollars, it is a very risky contract for the Phillies.

The bidding for Lee’s services began at six years. The initial offer from the Yankees was a six-year deal and the Rangers started at five years but quickly added a sixth.

While Lee is one of the best pitchers in baseball and easily the best available free agent pitcher this offseason, most people felt that a commitment of that length to a 32-year-old pitcher with back problems was too risky to justify the amount of money.

Shortly after Carl Crawford signed with the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees added a seventh year to the deal and brought it up to as much as $150 million; that’s seven guaranteed years, not six with an option.

But the Phillies were able to get Lee for less years and less money. Great deal for them, right?

Not so fast.

Under the new deal, Lee will make just $11 million next season, but after that it goes up and up.

It breaks down as follows: $21.5 million in 2012; $25 million in 2013; $25 million in 2014; $25 million in 2015.

Lee will turn 33 years old in August. So, for those who said devoting such money into an aging pitcher was a bad idea, consider that the Phillies will be paying Lee $25 million in 2015 when Lee will be 37 years old.

But now on to the sixth year option. In 2016, Lee’s option year will be guaranteed for $27.5 million should Lee pitch 200 innings in 2015 or a combined 400 innings in 2014 and 2015. Also, Lee must not finish the 2015 season on the DL because of a left shoulder or elbow injury.

Should Lee not complete those provisions, he has a $12.5 million buyout.

Sound like a good deal?

Nevermind the fact that the Phillies will be paying Lee $25 million at ages 35-37.

But with the exception of the 2007 season, Lee has thrown at least 200 innings in each of the last five seasons. Over the last three seasons, Lee has averaged 221.1 innings pitched.

It’s a bit of a double-edged sword for the Phillies. Should Lee throw his required 200 innings in 2015 to guarantee his sixth year, he’ll be making $27.5 million at the age of 38. And while you can assume that Lee would have been healthy and effective in order to reach 200 innings, that’s not a fair assumption.

Just because he reached 200 innings, doesn’t mean he was effective.

At the age of 38, in a pitcher friendly park like Citizens Bank Park, it’s not hard to imagine Lee having a hard time.

So even if he hits the 200 innings mark in 2015, it’s no guarantee he’ll be worth the $27.5 million the Phillies would have to pay him.

The stipulation concerning Lee’s status on the DL at the end of the 2015 season is even more confusing. To review, Lee cannot end the season on the DL because of a left shoulder injury or elbow injury.

Okay, but when Lee missed time last season due to injury, where was the injury? That’s right, his back. So it’s okay if Lee’s back continues to be an issue over the next few years in Philly because even if it lands him on the DL at the end of the 2015 season, he’ll still get his $27.5 million.

Or what if it’s an ankle injury? Or maybe an injury to his quad muscle? What if he takes one off the head and goes down with a concussion? No problem! $27.5 million in his pocket.

So to put it this way—if Lee pitches 200 innings with a 4.25 ERA in 2015 and ends the season with a broken ankle, his contract is guaranteed at $27.5 million for the 2016 season, when Lee will be 38 years old at the start of the season and turn 39 years old that August.

So the Phillies were able to steal the best pitcher in baseball this offseason. They stole him for less years and less money than the team that always seems to land that big free agent they want, the New York Yankees.

And if the Phillies win the World Series next season, hell, let’s say they win two straight, they’ll still be paying Lee a ridiculous amount of money which only increases as he gets older and could find themselves paying a so-so pitcher, able to suffer from any injury except to his shoulder or elbow, $27.5 million at the age of 39.

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Let me just start by saying that I do not want to be writing this article. 

Not just because Cliff Lee did not sign with my Rangers, but because of the way it went down.  Throughout the whole process Ranger fans were led to believe Lee might stay in Texas and take (slightly) less money than what the Yankees were offering because he liked his time in Texas.  In the end he takes substantially less money in order to play in a place he likes, and that place is not Texas.  He did not take the money, and he did not pick us.  That sucks.  Now that I am done editorializing, maybe we should move on to the fantasy impact.

Ultimately, is there a significant fantasy impact of Lee going back to Philadelphia?  We are talking about a guy who has posted stud-caliber numbers in four different cities over the past three years.  His ERA was somewhat higher in his stops at hitter’s parks (3.39 in Philly, 3.98 in Texas), but his strikeout rate was consistently around seven to eight K/9, and his walk rate was consistently around one walk per nine innings or lower.  That is not going to change wherever he pitches.  

So we are talking about strikeouts and WHIP remaining relatively similar and a probable uptick in ERA which should be offset by an increased number of wins thanks to a solid Philly lineup.

The point is this: Continue Reading>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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It’s no question that the best rotation in the MLB belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.  They started this offseason with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.  Now, the Phillies have lured Cliff Lee into their rotation.  Does this give them one of the best rotations of all time?  Let’s take a look at baseball’s greatest rotations, and you can decide for yourself.

Begin Slideshow

Cliff Lee is officially a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. The papers have been signed and sealed. Now it’s up to Lee to deliver.

The organization is counting on him to do just that, to the tune of a cool $120 million.

No pressure though, Mr. Lee. Vegas and baseball enthusiasts everywhere only expect you and Phillies to turn the National League into your own personal playground en route to a World Series appearance.

And if you don’t win a title, don’t sweat it. There will be plenty of blame to travel up and down the payroll, which, as of this moment, exceeds $170 million.

But never mind the Series. Before you or any other of the New Four Horsemen hurls a ball plateward this season, there are some questions to answer.

Do the Phillies Now Own One of the Best Rotations of All Time?

If you believe in the power of sabremetrics, then yes.

According Sports Illustrated’s Cliff Corcoran, who accumulated 2011 statistics for each of Philadelphia’s Big Four using Baseball Prospectus’ Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Above Replacement (SNLVAR) — geez, what a mouthful — the quartet of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt compares favorably with some of history’s best pitching foursomes.

Corcoran’s projections predict that in 2011, the Big Four will be worth 26.6 wins above replacement, a figure that compares favorably to what the numbers indicate are the two best pitching rotations since 1954: the 1966 Dodgers and 1997 Braves.

[Side note: For those not up-to-date on their scientific baseball lexicon, the WAR formula assesses how many wins a player is worth over the course of a season.]

That Dodger rotation, which included three future Hall of Famers among the foursome of Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Claude Osteen, and Don Sutton, registered 32.5 wins above replacement. The Braves rotation, with the unforgettable trio of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine, was fraction behind at 32.4.

You make the call. Does the Phillies rotation deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as some of the best of all time?

My answer is no, at least until they prove the numbers are accurate.

How Many Runs Will Lee and Co. Require?

You would think not many. None of the Big Four has a career ERA over 3.85. In fact, in 37 combined years of major league service, there have been only five instances in which any of them recorded an ERA higher than 4.32 in a given season.

The next logical question is, can the explosive Philadelphia offense, which finished 2009 ranked seventh in runs scored, get the job done more often than not?

When you average together the career ERAs of Lee, Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt, the result is 3.47. In other words, all the Phillies have to do is score four runs a game and they’ll win 130 games in 2011, right?

Easier said than done.

I went into minor detail yesterday about the possible pitfalls that may await the Philadelphia lineup in the absence of Jayson Werth, who was either first or second on the team in nearly every major statistical category last season.

Who picks up the slack? Maybe Domonic Brown, but the 23-year-old only has 62 career at-bats and may not be ready to provide the Phillies with a legitimate threat either in front of or behind Ryan Howard.

Another thing to keep in mind: assuming Brown becomes a mainstay in the place of Werth, the average age of the Phillies lineup this season is nearly 32 years of age. As many teams are trending younger to save cash, Philadelphia will be one of baseball’s older teams. Can they support the pitching staff on a consistent basis over a 162-game season?

Is the Contract Too Long?

Lee signed a deal that guarantees him $120 million over the next five seasons. It also includes a vesting option worth an additional $27.5 million for 2016. Of the three teams lobbying for Lee, Philadelphia was the only one whose offer didn’t include guaranteed money for six seasons; the Yankees offered two deals, one of which guaranteed seven years, while Rangers offered a seventh year as a vesting option.

Lee took the shortest deal. Still, is his new contract too lengthy? Assuming Lee pitches either 200 innings in 2010 or 400 innings over the course of the 2014-15 seasons, and his option vests, he’ll be pitching during the back end of his final season at age 38.

True, left handers generally last longer than right handers, but what kind of production justifies paying that sort of money to a 38 year old Lee, who would be in his 15^th season in 2016?

I suppose that’s why the deal also includes a buyout, valued at a slightly smaller $12.5 million.

Also consider that of the 52 free agent pitchers that have signed deals of four years or more since 1990, only five have averaged 30-plus starts and posted an ERA 20 percent better than the league average, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

If Not No. 1, Then Where?

There’s more than one numbers game involving Lee in Philadelphia, the first of which has to do with the terms of his contract. The other is which slot of the rotation he fills: No. 1 or No. 2?

In all fairness to Roy Halladay and his recent historical heroics last season, he should be the undisputed ace of the staff. He has proven more consistently over the course of his career that he is deserving of that role. But disregarding the whole right-left-right-left setup, wouldn’t Oswalt, whose career ERA of 3.18 trumps Lee’s 3.85, have just as much a right to that second spot? And what about Hamels, whose 3.53 career ERA would fit nicely in the No. 3 hole?

I suppose in the grand scheme of things it really doesn’t matter, but isn’t $20 million just a tad too much to be paying a pitcher that, statistically, is only your rotation’s fourth-best performer?

Does Lee Really Make the Phillies Better?

There’s something to be said for team chemistry. It doesn’t necessarily come in the form of dollars and cents or home runs and on-base percentage. And some managers will tell you they’d rather have a second-tier player who meshes well with the remainder of the locker room than a superstar whose antics threaten to tear at the fabric of the team.

Often times, camaraderie trumps talent. Just ask the 2008 Yankees, who finished third in the AL East and missed the playoffs despite a payroll that neared $210 million.

I’m not insinuating that Lee has been or will be a destructive force. He clearly made the Phillies better in 2009, and there’s no reason to believe his likeable character won’t gel with his teammates this time around.

But there are no promises. Perhaps more in baseball than in any other professional sport, teams have to coalesce into a single, cohesive unit from season to season in order to be successful.

The Phillies had that make up each of the past three seasons. It was one of the biggest driving forces behind their success, and maybe the main reason why they came so close to becoming the first NL team to win three consecutive pennants since the St. Louis Cardinals of the 1940s.

The Phillies may ultimately win 100-plus games with Lee on the roster for a full season. But as the dog days of August give way to playoff races in September, will the Phillies—who welcome back roughly the same cast of characters as in recent seasons—have the right chemistry to propel them into October?

Or will the addition of one single player, even one of Lee’s modesty, be enough to derail what has been the most successful run in team history?  

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