Kuzul

A pitching rotation as hellacious as the one the Philadelphia Phillies are currently possessing rarely happens in baseball. Many of us are still wondering how the negotiating process went down. And why Cliff Lee didn’t announce his decision on a one-hour special.

Everything about this negotiation suggested that Lee and Braunecker were playing perfectly in terms of maximizing the money. Now it appears money was never really a factor.

The Yankees have now found themselves in a real bind, a position that they are unaccustomed to being in. They now need to be careful and not overpay for relief pitchers or trade their top prospects.

But, the problem is the Red Sox have just positioned themselves to be AL East Champs in the future. The Yankees’ championship window was already slightly cracked with aging stars Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. With the moves that the Red Sox have made, they may have slammed that window shut.

The Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Lee and Cole Hamels combination has already drawn comparisons to the 1990s Atlanta Braves.

Last season, Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Lee and Joe Blanton posted a overall 3.17 ERA. More than likely this will be a sign of things to come next year.

Lee’s 10.82 K/BB ratio was the best in baseball. The second best mark at 7.30 K/BB is held by Lee’s new teammate Halladay. Hamels was ranked 13th at 3.46 K/BB.

Now the 2008 World Series MVP, Hamels, will move down to the No. 4 spot in the rotation. Last season, Hamels posted a 3.53 ERA with a 1.179 WHIP.  

During certain times next season, it will be almost unfair to trot out such a rotation and the Phillies will certainly be in the World Series discussion. Somewhere out there in Washington, DC, Jason Werth is crying into his pillowcase stuffed with money.

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The Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the most successful baseball teams in the MLB the past three seasons. Recently, as most of you have heard, the Phillies lost their all-star left fielder, Jayson Werth, to the Washington Nationals for a ridiculous amount of money, but also gained the most coveted free agent in the 2010 class, Cliff Lee. Also, they are looking to shop Raul Ibanez, which would mean they would not have a stable outfield. However, this is no reason why the Phillies should not still be an elite team.

1)    Starting Pitching

Pitching wins championships, and the Phillies have plenty of it. Their Big Three, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, all return next season. Now the Phantastic Phour after the HUGE signing of Cliff Lee, the Phillies can almost not even dress any relievers.

Halladay is coming off a career season, winning 21 games and striking out 219 batters, both career highs. He also added another Cy Young Award to his collection, a perfect game and a no-hitter in the postseason. Cole Hamels had a great season to bounce back from a terrible 2009 campaign. He posted a 3.06 ERA after an abysmal 4.32 ERA in 2009. After the Phillies acquired Oswalt, he was un-hittable. His record did not show it at 13-13, but he had a 2.76 ERA, and after losing his first game as a Phillie he won seven straight.

Oh, not to mention, they now have Cliff Lee. Lee is coming off another spectacular postseason. He played in his second World Series, one with the Phillies and one with the Texas Rangers. Last season he posted a very good 3.19 ERA, but for the first half of the season he played on a terrible Seattle Mariners team. He was 12-9, and was injury-plagued in the begging of the season.

This prized free agent signing gives the Phillies the most feared starting rotation in the MLB, if they didn’t have it already. Also, Joe Blanton (who they are also looking to shop) and Kyle Kendrick are pretty good options for fifth starters, winning a combined 20 games in 2010.

2)    Charlie Manuel

As much as I hate Charlie’s in-game strategy, the players love him. He can get any player to play hard. He’s led the team to four straight division titles, back-to-back National League crowns in 2008 and 2009, and another three straight NLCS berths from 2008-2010. The players will always listen to him, and respect him.

For example, Jimmy Rollins did not run a ball out to first base on a ground ball last year. Charlie immediately pulled him from the game, and benched him the next game. He sent a message to the team, to make sure this did not happen again. The Phillies will continue to win under Charlie Manuel. One thing he needs to work on if his public speaking ability in post-game press conferences, but that’s irrelevant at this time.

3)    Howard, Utley, and Rollins

Despite losing Werth, the Phillies return their core players Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. All had injury problems last season, so they’re bound for bounce-back seasons.

Jimmy has not been the same after his 2007 MVP season. His stats and games played have taken a very noticeable drop since the 2007 season. Howard, despite being on the DL twice last season, still hit for 31 HRs and 108 RBIs. Utley has been debatably the best second basemen in the league, but also had an injury-plagued season.

All these players will pick up the team, and fill Werth’s RBIs and HRs. In the postseason, the Phillies looked like a Little League team at the plate. Especially Ryan Howard looking at strike three to end the season. That is just inexcusable, and the Phillies will have to be better from the plate this season.

4)    Fielding

The Phillies are one of the best-fielding teams in the Majors. As a team they only had 83 errors, which was sixth-best in the league. They also were sixth in fielding percentage, and eighth in total assists. Yes, they lose Werth’s big arm in right field, but Carlos “Chooch” Ruiz is one of the better-fielding catchers in the game, and Shane Victorino just won his second Gold Glove in two years.

To wrap things up I will admit the Phillies are losing a big part of their team in Werth, but they will continue to have success like in recent years. A point I did not address in the article is their bullpen. Brad Lidge has to be the Brad Lidge of 2008 for them to be a World Series team again. Without Werth it will be a struggle, but the veteran Phillies will survive and still have great success. 

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Everyday on the way to school, I pick up a copy of AM New York, a local newspaper in New York City. While sifting through the pages, I see an article entitled “Yankees wait on Cliff Lee.” Just then, my phone vibrated. It was an e-mail from my fellow writer Steve Lenox. “I was right,” he said, and went on discussing the Cliff Lee deal.

Startled and confused, I started looking around for an answer. The subway conductor then walked through the doors of the train and saw I was reading about Lee and the Yankees. “Don’t read that junk,” he said. “He signed with Philly.” Relieved, I leaned back in my seat, and went on with my ride.

Bad reporting on behalf of AM New York is part of it, but things happened extremely fast. Within a few hours of us even finding out that the Phillies were involved, Lee was gone. And the newspapers couldn’t even keep up.

I got to school only to be approached by five or six people all screaming. “It’s over,” they all said. “The Yanks are done.” Disgusted, I calmly explained to them how ridiculous they sounded.

Account for all free-agent signings so far this offseason, and the Yankees still have a payroll of $190 million. That is the highest in the Majors, and the Yankees expectations have not changed whatsoever.

Now, it is true that the Yankees could use some pitching help. But here is how I see it: If Andy Pettitte returns, the Yankees will have the same rotation they had two years ago when they won the World Series, with the addition of Phil Hughes, who won 18 games last season. Cliff Lee happened to be on the team they beat.

“A.J. Burnett? Really?” I heard that a lot today. It is borderline criminal to talk positively about Burnett in New York.

But why can’t he have a comeback season? Why can’t a veteran pitcher who led the league in strikeouts three seasons ago, and led the Yankees to a championship two seasons ago have a comeback season?

Another bright spot is the signing of Russell Martin to a one-year deal today, according to MLB.com. He may not be Lee, but having 28-year-old, two-time All-Star and Gold Glove winner behind the plate can’t hurt. Especially considering the backups are Francisco Cervelli and Jesus Montero.

Furthermore, the Phillies are not done dealing. Phillies beat reporter Todd Zolecki points out that the Phillies are going to need to clear some payroll space to compensate for Lee’s massive deal. Joe Blanton is someone the Phillies are looking to move, and it wouldn’t hurt for the Yankees to add a 30-year-old with plenty of experience in a big city. He would only cost $17 million over the next two seasons.

And, make no mistake, bringing Lee aboard for seven years was not something the Yankees were particularly thrilled about. If they were, they would have thrown a lot more money at him—and, trust me, they could have. In the end, the Yankees realized it wouldn’t be too smart to sign a pitcher through age 39 and up to age 40, especially considering he has only had three good seasons in a nine-season career.

Having a payroll below $200 million is not such a terrible notion either. The Yankees will have a lot more flexibility in the future to make big deals, and still have a great chance to win in the short-run. 

Nevertheless, the sun will rise tomorrow. The Yankees are still a great team, and still have very high expectations. They won with this team in 2009, and they can win with it in 2011.

If you told me the Yankees would go into the 2011 season with CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Joba Chamberlain, Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin, and possibly Andy Pettitte, I don’t think I would be very worried.

What a day. And I never even got to remind people that there are two months left in the offseason.

Listen to Jess on What’s on Second: The Seamheads.com Radio Hour Monday nights at 9 p.m. ET. Follow him on Twitter   @jesskcoleman or send him an e-mail at jess@jesskcoleman.com.

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Late Monday night, word came out that not only was there a mystery team in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, but that they had won his services.

The Phillies got back the piece they sorely missed last post-season, and in the process put another 500 pounds of pain on the Yankees off-season.

While they re-signed Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera as expected, the Yankees real top target all along was Cliff Lee. Now that they’ve missed out on him, and rival Boston added Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, the Bronx Bombers may be scrambling to get their rotation improved.

You’ve heard Zack Greinke’s name tossed out there, but its believed that he wouldn’t accept a trade to New York, or that new York doesn’t think Greinke can handle the pressure. Both theories produce the same result.

So, aside from Brian Cashman’s public statements of patience, what could be the next plan for the Yankees? Well, one name that surely will be kicked around is 2010 Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners.

However, here are 10 reasons they won’t be able to make that deal happen.

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Cliff Lee is a happy man.

Forget the fact he swindled himself out of more than $30 million to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies. Okay, maybe not swindled, because Lee voluntarily left that money on the table.

He knew what he was doing. He knew he’d be the most at peace in Philadelphia. His trial run there in 2009 — despite the fact the Phillies failed to sign him that time around — was nothing short of magical.

So, it is with shallower pockets but a lighter heart that Lee comes to Philadelphia, providing an already intimidating gang of starters with an additional bully.

Watch out, National League East: Lee’s signing may have been the ultimate kill shot. Sorry, Atlanta Braves: the division was previously a table for two, and you’ve just been asked to leave.

Not only are the Phillies unanimous favorites to win the East, odds makers in Vegas have been influenced by the Lee deal, adjusting Philadelphia’s chances of winning it all from 5-1 to 5-2 overnight — the best in baseball ahead of the Yankees.

The quartet of Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt is unrivaled in baseball: Thirteen All-Star appearances. A combined record of 481-275 and an aggregate ERA of 3.47. Two World Series titles. One perfect game. One no-hitter.

All that and at an average age of 30 — not exactly youthful in baseball years, but not yet geriatric.

The Phillies should be dominant on the mound, just as they should be proficient at the plate — even sans Jayson Werth. Though, it appears, they won’t have to score very much.

On paper, Philadelphia has the look of a 100-win team — easy. By locking up Lee, the Phillies have made the unrealistic prospect of winning four out of every five games somewhat realistic. Based on preseason projections and expectations alone, their backs will be fitted for targets before a pitch is even thrown.

Maybe that’s why the Phillies will disappoint in 2011.

Suppose they win 106 games during the regular season, breeze through the NLDS and NLCS, but come one run short of a world title. Is that, then, considered a disappointment? Some would say yes.

What if Halladay doesn’t even sniff either a perfect game or a no-hitter in 2011, and both Hamels and Oswalt, who has the best career ERA (3.18) of the four, perform like your average third and fourth starters? Does that constitute an underachieving staff?

And assume Lee finishes a hair below his numbers from a season ago (12-9, 3.18), or even those from his first go-around in Philly (3.39 in 12 starts). Will the Phillies’ shrewdness and $120 million sneak attack against the Yankees and Rangers be for naught?

No, but the goals that were set the moment Lee signed on the dotted line say otherwise.

The Phillies now have upwards of $170 million dedicated to the 2011 payroll, including more than $60 million tied up in the Big Four of Lee, Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt. Even if starter Joe Blanton, as rumors suggest, is dealt to create space, they would still leapfrog the Red Sox for the second-highest payroll in the majors.

With that sort of cash flying around, isn’t it only reasonable to expect big, big things from Philadelphia this season, much like we do annually from the Yankees, who hand out the game’s most exorbitant paychecks?

Again, most people would say yes.

And what of the offense? There’s a good chance the lineup won’t operate on auto-pilot as often as it did with Werth, who at times was like Robin to Ryan Howard’s Batman, leading the team in games played, runs, walks, doubles, and on-base percentage, and finishing second in home runs, RBI, and hits.

Already under the microscope, much like the pitching staff, how much pressure will be applied to the Phillies’ hitters if they fail to perform consistently? After all, you can’t hold down the opposition’s offense every night.

Philadelphia has the ingredients available for a dream season. But if things don’t go exactly according to plan, which will likely be nothing less than a World Series title, the 2011 campaign may be a recipe for disaster.

How will Lee feel then?

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Philadelphia has just acquired another ace in Cliff Lee. The lefty has arguably been one of the best postseason pitchers of all time. Lee will be joining a rotation that already consists of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. 

All of these pitchers are guys managers would be confident tossing on the mound in Games 1 or 7 of the World Series. The weakest of the four is Cole Hamels, who was the team’s ace when they won the World Series a few years back. The sports world should no longer be surprised seeing more than one superstar on each team. This past NBA offseason, fans around the league saw LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh “take their talents to South Beach.” 

Are the Phillies the Miami Heat of the MLB? 

Both teams have undeniable star power. The Phillies have the best rotation the MLB has seen since Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz were together in Atlanta. The Heat compiled three out of the five Eastern Conference all stars from last season. Both teams have enough talent on their rosters to where it’s almost impossible to miss the playoffs, but can both these teams achieve their goals of winning the championships of their respective sports?

Both teams have one very similar problem. The talent around them may not be enough. The Heat this season have been getting very little help outside of their “Big 3”. The bench hasn’t been scoring enough and the role players haven’t been helping out. Sure, the team is hot right now, but they haven’t really been tested since their winning streak has started. The three of these guys might not be enough to bring the championship to Miami…and the Phillies face a similar problem.

The pitching of the Phillies will be incredible this season. There is no denying that. They have the type of rotation where you wouldn’t be surprised to see back to back No Hitters or Perfect Games. Halladay and Lee are capable of doing both those things and they will be pitching on back to back nights. Oswalt and Hamels have both been aces for their teams in the last couple of years as well. The problem is the team around them…can they hit?

The Phils just lost outfielder Jayson Werth to the Nationals via Free Agency. He has been one of their bigger bats the last couple of seasons. The team was the oldest team in baseball last year and adding Lee doesn’t exactly make them younger. Jimmy Rollins has been irrelevant for almost two years now. Utley was injured for a quarter of the season and Ryan Howard experienced a significant decline in his OPS from seasons before. The team is going to struggle to provide run support for their star studded rotation. 

When you look at it closely, the teams are actually very similar. They might be playing different sports, but they both have the same problem. The talent on their rosters might not be enough to get them to the promised land, no matter how many superstars each team has. It certainly will be interesting to see how the Heat finish out the NBA season and playoffs, and how the Phillies fare next season through a grueling 162 game season and playoffs. 

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While we were all waiting to see if Cliff Lee would choose to be in Texas or the Bronx in 2011, he went out and LeBron-d us.

Lee will be taking his talents to the city of brotherly love and join Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt to create one of the, if not the, greatest starting rotations that the world has ever seen.

Lee’s decision hurts three teams in the MLB the most: The New York Yankees, the Texas Rangers, and the Atlanta Braves.

The Yankees should be just fine. All though Lee’s decision may cause them to lose the division to the Red Sox, they have just enough money and prospects to go out and get the next best option and make the postseason.

The Rangers are cooked. Even if they do make it into the playoffs, which they most likely will due to the horrible division that they reside in, they will not make it very far without their former ace. Without Lee, their rotation is just mediocre.

The Braves, however, went from being the favorites to win the National League East to just one of the front runners to win the National League Wild card overnight.

Now how does Atlanta counter Philadelphia‘s move? Sure, Dan Uggla was a step in the right direction for the Braves, but their starting rotation is just average compared to the Phillies’ big four. Atlanta only has about $1 million left to spend, meaning they need to make a couple of trades if they want to contend for the NL East title in 2011.

For financial purposes, trading away veteran starter Derek Lowe would make the most sense, but since Lowe performed so well down the stretch in 2010, that likely won’t happen. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been very interested in starter-turned-disappointment Kenshin Kawakami and have stated that a deal involving Paul Maholm is a possibility. Sure, Maholm is not Cliff Lee, but he then gives Atlanta one extra starting pitcher to trade in exchange for the centerfielder that they have been missing since the departure of Andruw Jones.

I wonder….Who is desperate for starting pitching after the Cliff Lee deal and has an expendable centerfielder with the great speed and defense that the Atlanta Braves lack…? 

The New York Yankees.

Brett Gardner, the fastest man in baseball, will likely take a back seat to the rejuvenated Curtis Granderson in 2011 and the fact that the Braves and Yankees both fit each other’s needs makes them a trading match made in heaven.

If Atlanta were to trade one of their starting pitchers, it would be young Jair Jurjens.

Jurjens had somewhat of an off year last year due to injury, but he got it together at the end of the year and in his three previous seasons with the Braves, JJ has shown flashes of brilliance.

Say the Braves trade Jurjens to the Yankees, Kawakami to the Bucs, and acquire Gardner and Maholm. Even though Maholm had an off-year in 2010, his ERA was not much higher than Jurjens and he started twelve more games than JJ. Mahlom has had a couple of good seasons and who knows how good he could be for a team actually in contention. It is obviously still a downgrade from Jurjens, but the acquisition of Gardner and the incredible pitching depth in Atlanta’s farm system would far outweigh that.

With a good hitting coach and more game experience, Gardner has the potential to bat .300 and become the Braves’ true leadoff man that they have lacked for so many years. When the College of Charleston graduate gets on base, he is the biggest distraction in baseball for pitchers and almost a guarantee to steal.

Do not expect the Braves to go out and sign Zack Greinke or Adrian Beltre. They do not have the finances or the trading chips to acquire a superstar-type player like Uggla again and there is no way that Frank Wren can match what the Phillies did.

However, if the GM can give the Braves their key missing components on offense, most importantly center field, they should be in the NL East race the entire year. Philadelphia obviously has the advantage in pitching, but with their loss of star outfielder Jayson Werth and the Braves’ acquisition of slugger Dan Uggla, the Braves should be the better offensive team.

Remember, Atlanta still has one of the best rotations in baseball and all of the Philadelphia starters are human….except Halladay…so this is certainly not the end of the world for the Atlanta Braves.

Don’t stop choppin’, Braves fans and don’t stop dealin’, Frank Wren.

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The Cliff Lee signing has put together one of the greatest pitching staffs in recent memory.

The last staff that looked this dominant on paper was the 1993 Atlanta Braves.

Like the Phillies, the Braves had recently signed the best free agent pitcher on the market in Greg Maddux. Maddux had just come off a 20 win season for the Chicago Cubs, and won his first of four consecutive NL Cy Young awards.

Maddux led a staff of four dominating pitchers in Atlanta in 1993. In addition to Maddux, there were also future Hall of Famers in Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. Steve Avery rounded out the four-headed monster in Atlanta that dominated the NL that year with a record of 105-57.

Greg Maddux/ Cliff Lee

The pitching staff comparison starts with Lee and Maddux. Maddux was perhaps the best pitcher of his era. He was a “pitcher’s pitcher,” nicknamed the “Professor.” Maddux would paint the black of the plate consistently. Maddux was known for his control of the strike zone, and craftiness to get hitters out.

Lee has been the best control pitcher in baseball over the last three years. His K/BB ratio of 10.26 in 2010 was the second best of all time, falling only behind Bret Saberhagen in 1994. Fifth and ninth on the all time best K/BB seasons was none other than Maddux.

Maddux in 1993 won his second NL Cy Young. He went 20-10 on the year. He had an ERA of 2.36, with 197 strikeouts over 267.0 innings.

Lee went 12-9 last season, despite missing some time early in the season, and playing the majority of the season for one of the worst offensive teams in the American League.

Given the fact that Philadelphia scored 4.76 runs per game last season, compared to the Mariners 3.16 per game, the win total for Lee should obviously trend upward. 

Season Prediction for Lee: 18-9, 3.05 ERA, 175 K’s over 215.0 innings.

John Smoltz/ Roy Halladay

John Smoltz compares most favorably with Roy Halladay.

Smoltz was the Robin to Maddux’s Batman on the 1993 Atlanta Braves. Gifted with great talent, and a devastating split finger fastball, Smoltz was the strikeout pitcher in the rotation.

After being plucked out of the Detroit Tigers organization in 1987, for then 36-year-old Doyle Alexander, Smoltz dominated for the Braves. He made his debut for the Braves in 1988 and proceeded to put together a Hall of Fame career.

During the 1993 season, Smoltz went 15-11. He had an ERA of 3.62 over 243.2 innings, and struck out 208 batters.

Halladay came to the Phillies last season, after spending 12 seasons in Toronto with the Blue Jays.

In his first season in Philadelphia, Roy “The Doc” Halladay, made an immediate impact.

Going 21-10 and winning the NL Cy Young would be enough for some pitchers to be happy, Halladay went a few steps further.

On May 29th, 2010, Halladay pitched a perfect game against the Florida Marlins. In his first ever playoff appearance, Halladay went on to pitch the second-ever postseason no-hitter, while facing the Cincinnati Reds.

Season Prediction for Halladay: 19-10, 2.65 ERA, 220 K’s over 230.0 innings.

Tom Glavine/ Cole Hamels

Tom Glavine was a crafty left-handed pitcher for the Atlanta Braves in 1993.

Glavine was a two sport star, being drafted early in the 1984 NHL Draft. Glavine was also drafted by the Atlanta Braves that year in the second round. He eventually decided on baseball, making his MLB Debut in 1987, marking the first season of the future 300 game winner.

Glavine, the 1995 World Series MVP and two time NL Cy Young winner, relied on location of an average fastball mixed in with great breaking pitches, most notably a circle changeup on the outside of the plate.

Glavine had his third straight 20 win season in 1993, going 22-6 that season. He had a 3.20 ERA over 239.1 innings to go along with his 120 K’s.

Cole Hamels, 26, was drafted by the Phillies in 2002 and made his debut in 2006.

He has been instrumental in turning the Phillies into a National League powerhouse. His most notable accomplishment was winning the 2008 World Series MVP, while pitching the Phillies to the title.

Hamels, like Glavine, is a left-handed pitcher who spots a good fastball, and relies on a dominating circle changeup to get batters out.

Over the second half of 2010, Hamels may have been the best pitcher in the NL. Despite an underwhelming 12-11 record, this was not indicative of his season. He also sported only a 3.06 ERA over 208.2 innings with 211 K’s.

Season Prediction for Hamels: 16-10, 3.30 ERA, 210 K’s over 200.0 innings.

Steve Avery/ Roy Oswalt

Steve Avery, though many forget, was one of the best starting pitchers in the National League from 1991-1993. His unexpected and quick decline from dominance after the 1993 season tends to overshadow his accomplishments in the early 90s.

Avery, a left-hander, was the 1991 ALCS MVP. He had a great 1993 season, which was his best as a pro. He went 18-6 with a 2.94 ERA over 223.1 innings to go with his 125 K’s.

Oswalt came to Philadelphia last season from the Houston Astros, after being one of the more dominant pitchers in the NL over the last decade.

The right-handed Oswalt still has electric stuff and could be one of the best fourth starters in MLB history. The 2005 NLCS MVP had another great season in 2010. He went a combined 13-13 between the Phillies and Astros. He had a 2.76 ERA over 211.2 innings with 193 K’s.

Season Prediction for Oswalt: 17-8, 2.90 ERA, 190 K’s over 210.0 innings.

Overall

The Phillies now have, with all respect to San Francisco, the best starting staff in all of baseball. Given the top five offense that they can also field, the Phillies should role through the NL East in 2011.

The Phillies in 2010 won the NL East with a ML best record of 97-65. This was quite impressive, due to the extended time missed by Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and others throughout the season.

The Phillies, if healthy, have one of the better lineups in the NL, despite losing Jason Werth to the Nationals this offseason.

If the rotation stays healthy, the top four pitchers could win 70-75 games all by themselves. Not to mention, Joe Blanton, as a fifth starter, won 9 games last season. Add that to the bullpen wins and you have a team that could potentially win 110 games next season.

2011 Philadelphia Phillies season prediction: Since we are doing a 1993 Atlanta Braves comparison, I think 105-57 season is a good barometer for the the 2011 Phillies.

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Isn’t it ironic that both Cliff Lee and LeBron James got their careers started in Cleveland?

Isn’t it also ironic that both men are considered to be at the top of their respective sports in terms of talent and ability, and left via free agency to join teams that have a wealth of top tier talent?

Let’s just tap the breaks on that last part for a minute.

Cliff Lee threw another one right by Major League Baseball on Monday night, as the southpaw from Arkansas agreed to terms on a contract from the Philadelphia Phillies.

The offer from the Phillies came seemingly out of nowhere, as the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers both appeared to be the leaders in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

As a result, Lee will now join a rotation that features the likes of Cy Young winners Roy Oswalt and Roy Halladay, as well as World Series MVP Cole Hamels and a not-too-shabby Joe Blanton. Further, Lee will backed by a lineup featuring sluggers Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, with a supporting cast that features Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez.

And we thought Bosh, Wade and James made for a formidable opponent.

But before the jilted mass of Yankee and Ranger fans begin to conjure up conspiracy theories or develop negative reasons for why Lee opted to go to Philly at the eleventh hour, perhaps it we should take a look at why Lee chose the Phillies.

Must be the money

In a sports world where egregious contracts exist—like the $250 million dollars Alex Rodriguez due to A-Rod, or the outlandish $100 million that Albert Haynesworth—its refreshing that Cliff Lee opted for less years and less dollars than the Yankees or Rangers were offering.

Throughout the entire process, Lee had said time-and-again that he was looking for a place that felt like home. Knowing that, is it too ridiculous to think he actually enjoyed his time in Philadelphia the way he did his time in Texas?

Lest we forget, Lee went to the World Series in 2009 with the Phils.

I, for one, think Lee’s decision to go to Philadelphia is a breath of fresh air in time where the lead peanut vendor is going to arbitration.

Jaxon

For those of you who don’t know, Cliff Lee’s son Jaxon was stricken with myeloid leukemia when he was four months-old. During Lee’s time in Philadelphia, Lee and his family found a hospital that they were quite comfortable with in treating their son.

Reports say that Jaxon Lee was only given about a 30 percent chance of survival, but after finding a bone marrow match and receiving treatment, that the boy is in remission and doing well.

While I’m sure there are a plethora of renowned hospitals in both the DFW and NYC areas, I’m sure it serves as great comfort to the Lee family that should they need immediate care, they are in close proximity to their preferred hospital.

Put a ring on it

This is where things could get a little LeBron-ish.

Cliff Lee has pitched in the last two Fall Classics in 2009 (Phillies) and 2010 (Rangers). Both times, however, Cliff Lee walked away as the bridesmaid. 

Given the now intimidating nature of the Phillies starting rotation, as well as a lineup that could be the envy of almost any team in baseball, Lee has an ideal opportunity to achieve his ultimate goal.

Much like LeBron James, Lee has done most everything a pitcher can do—except win a World Series or toss a no hitter. But, unlike LeBron, Lee never gave the fans of the cities he has pitched in a reason to believe that he wasn’t going to leave.

After the 2009 World Series, Lee likely had every intention of pitching in Philly the following season, but was eventually traded.

In 2010, Lee made it clear that he was going to test the free agency waters and that the ability to win would be a determining factor. If nothing else, Lee was adamant about not making promises to anyone.

Further, for a man as well traveled as Lee (four teams in three years), it was likely that he was going to have friends all over the league, and I highly doubt he colluded with any of them about where to sign a la the Miami triumvirate.

There’s no place like home

As previously stated, Lee wanted a place that felt like home after essentially becoming a hired gun; and while Lee had hoped to land in a place close to his home in Benton, AR, Philadelphia wound up feeling like a place where he could put down some roots.

Lee is a soft spoken guy, who likely would rather share the spotlight than be in it. And while Philadelphia is known for being quite critical and unforgiving, Lee felt like that was the best decision for him and his family.

Emphasis on family.

Too often in professional sports we see athletes looking to market themselves, hoping to land in places like Chicago, New York or LA in hopes to make the most money and gain as much exposure as possible.

Don’t believe me? Look no further than A-Rod or Texeira in baseball—is it any surprise they both play for the Yankees?

What about the NBA, why else would Amar’e Stoudemire walk away from a perennial winner in Phoenix? Why would Carmelo Anthony or Chris Paul be so adamant about only signing with the “doormat of the last decade” Knicks?

All Lee wants to do is pitch and win. Whether that took place in New York, D.C., Dallas or Philadelphia, that’s all the man wanted.

Will the Phillies wind up playing for the World Series in 2011? Will Lee’s back hold up for the duration his contract (Lee will be 37 when it expires)?

There are too many unknown variables for anyone to know.

But, in a world where money talks and hand shakes walk, Cliff Lee proved to be the man he said he was: a family man looking to play for a winner.

And if that isn’t consolation enough to the populations of New York and Dallas, perhaps a quote from Ranger manager Ron Washington is. . .

“That’s the way baseball go.”

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I certainly didn’t see this coming.

There was no way that the Phillies could sign Cliff Lee.  While a lot of Phillies fans may have had it in the back of their minds as a wonderful fantasy scenario, most of us were sure that it wasn’t going to happen. 

As I’ve said before, the only team that would make a move like this is the Yankees, and the Phillies are not the Yankees.  Sure, they’ve spent a lot of money in recent years, but you kept hearing their front office talk about payroll limits and financial flexibility, which are terms you never hear  in the Bronx.

But then you wake up one morning, turn on SportsCenter to see that the Phillies have signed Cliff Lee, and you joyously realize that your team will not let money stand in the way of obtaining a player that they want.

To be fair, they did sign Lee for below market value.  He is passing up higher offers from the Yankees and the Rangers.  One rumored offer from the Yankees is said to be worth $30 million more than what the Phillies offered him.  So it isn’t like they simply outpriced the competition as the Yankees were attempting to do.

This does re-raise the question as to why the Phillies traded him in the first place.

The main reason the Phillies gave for trading him was a desire to re-stock their farm system.  On recent years, they had traded away several top prospects in various deals.  Due to this, their system was a bit depleted, and they saw trading Lee as an easy way to remedy that.

Most people didn’t fully believe this explanation, mostly because the prospects they received in exchange for Lee were underwhelming. 

The Mariners gave up pitchers Phillippe Aumont and Juan Ramirez, along with outfielder Tyson Gillies.  None of them appeared to be a can’t-miss prospect, and they all had disappointing 2010 seasons.

Since the prospect haul wasn’t overwhelming, most people figured that the deal had to be about money.  Lee would be a free agent after the 2010 season, and reports were that he was looking to get the biggest deal that he could.

The Phillies—who up until yesterday had an informal policy of never giving a pitcher a contract longer than four years—didn’t think that they’d be able to match what Lee would get on the open market.  Supposedly, they had offered Lee a hefty extension last year (although reportedly less than what he eventually received), and they were rejected.

They were then faced with the prospect of both Lee and outfielder Jayson Werth hitting freee agency after the 2010 season.  Both would be among the most coveted free agents, and both would be sure to receive large new contracts.  (And as we’ve seen, this did indeed happen.) 

The Phillies would then have holes in both their pitching rotation and lineup.  So they decided to preemptively address one of the issues by trading for Roy Halladay and dealing away Lee.  Halladay had expressed a desire to come to Philadelphia, and to prove it, he signed a contract extension for significantly less than he would have been expected to get in free agency.

After the trade, Lee expressed disappointment.  He had hoped to remain in Philadelphia and thought that there was significant progress being made towards a contract extension.  Most people believed that he did want to stay in Philadelphia, but not to the point where he’d take a below market deal similar to Halladay’s. 

As it turns out, Lee was telling the truth.  He really did want to stay in Philadelphia. 

While I’m happy about the signing, there are a few concerns with the deal.

While Lee isn’t seen as an injury risk, they are paying him a lot of money into his 30s.  Even the best conditioned pitchers can have injury problems as they get older. 

Look at the contract the Mets gave Johan Santana a few years ago.  Like Lee, he was considered one of the best pitchers in baseball and seemed like a good risk.  But he has suffered from injuries the past couple of seasons, and his contract now seems like a tremendous burden on the Mets payroll.

Of course, the fact that the Phillies have four ace-level pitchers on their staff mitigates the injury risk of each one, somewhat.  Even if Lee gets hurt, they can still rely on Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.

Signing Lee also doesn’t help the fact that the Phillies are an aging team.  Their core is all in their 30s, and some of their players are showing signs of decline.  Most people thought that the Phillies would look to get younger, not older.

On the other hand, since the team is aging, and the window for contention is supposedly closing, it makes sense to sign Lee and try to win a championship now.  As the Phillies well know, championship-caliber talent doesn’t come around that often, so you’d better try to win when you have the chance.

I’m also slightly worried that Phillies fans have mythologized Lee a bit.  His 2009 postseason was excellent, but he also was a bit shaky in September of that season.  And as the Yankees showed in the most recent World Series, he can be beaten in the postseason.  His presence alone does not guarantee a title.

So now that Lee is once again a Phillie, what have we learned?

1. When it comes to baseball rumors, don’t believe anything until it is official

Oftentimes, rumors are started by agents or team officials just to put pressure on the other party in negotiations.  Until you hear an official announcement, it’s almost impossible to know just what to believe.

Up until yesterday, everyone thought that Lee would sign with either the Yankees or Rangers.  The Phillies weren’t even thought of as a possibility.  And remember that nobody seemed to have any clue that Werth would sign with the Nationals, either.

2. Sometimes it really isn’t all about the money

Obviously Lee is not being underpaid.  He’s still going to be one of the highest paid players in baseball.  But he didn’t take the highest contract available, either.  Lee wanted to play for the Phillies, so that’s where he signed.

As the phrase goes, money talks and bulls**t walks.  Many times players say they want to stay somewhere but end up following the money.  It’s nice to see that Lee actually stuck by what he said.

He certainly didn’t seem to want to go to the Yankees, despite the money they were willing to pay him.  I’m sure the fact that Yankees fans spit on his wife during a playoff game didn’t exactly endear the New York fanbase to him.

And for whatever reason, he didn’t seem to want to stay with the Rangers, either, despite making it to the World Series with them. 

I’m sure his agent isn’t as happy as he could be.  There are rumors that his agent was the one pushing the idea that Lee wanted to be the highest-paid pitcher in baseball.  But maybe if the agent hadn’t pushed that idea, Lee never would have left Philadelphia to begin with.

3. It’s good to be a fan of a big market team. 

You can’t simply buy a World Series title, but having a lot of money to spend is a huge help.

Baseball teams are divided into several financial classes.  There are some small-market teams with very limited financial resources.  These teams can’t afford to pay for expensive free agents, and they expect to lose their stars once they hit free agency. 

Teams like this can only hope to contend by developing good young players and hope that they all mature around the same time.  Unfortunately for them, this is rare, and the small market teams will often go long stretches between playoff seasons. 

Even when it happens, the window for contention is limited for the poor teams.  Those young players eventually become free agents and go looking for a large contract which their team can not match.  The team must either trade them for prospects before that happens or risk losing them for nothing.

For an example, see the recent Tampa Bay Rays teams.  Their young core matured to the point where they were contenders for a few seasons, but now they are starting to lose players.  Outfielder Carl Crawford recently signed with the Red Sox, and they may have to trade pitcher Matt Garza as well.  Will the Rays still be contenders without them?  It is possible, but their chances are diminished.

On the other end of the spectrum are the rich teams.  These teams typically play in the country’s biggest markets, have stadiums that make a lot of money and have expensive television contracts.  Money is usually not an obstacle for these teams when acquiring players.

A common misconception is that the rich teams go out and simply outspend everyone else for the best free agents.  But, that is not always the case.  Oftentimes, the biggest contracts are given out by middle-class teams looking to make an impact, similar to what the Nationals did with Jayson Werth.

The biggest difference is that the rich teams can afford multiple stars as well as expensive complementary players.  A small-market team like the Twins can sign star catcher Joe Mauer to a big deal.  But as a result, they can’t really afford other expensive players to go with him.  They have to surround him with either young players or fringe free agents and hope that they overperform.

On the other hand, even though the Phillies are paying a lot of money to stars like Halladay, Lee, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley (and most teams couldn’t afford those four players alone), they can still afford higher priced supporting players like Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco.

Another advantage held by rich teams is that they can afford to make mistakes.  The Red Sox spent a fortune to acquire Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, and he has been a disappointment.  But that didn’t stop them from signing Crawford to a huge deal. 

If a smaller market team made that kind of mistake, their payroll would be crippled, and they’d probably be forced to trade some people away.  They certainly wouldn’t be able to sign yet another high priced free agent.

Ten years ago, this economic disparity bothered me greatly.  The Phillies were part of the lower-middle class, and the Yankees were coming off another championship, thanks in part to their large payroll.  It felt like the Phillies would never be serious contenders simply because they couldn’t match the financial resources of the rich teams. 

Much has changed in 10 years.  The Phillies built a new stadium, which has been a huge source of revenue for the team.  They are also experiencing an unprecedented surge in popularity.  As a result, ticket sales are maxing out, they sell a ton of merchandise, and television ratings are up—meaning they receive even more money from the broadcast rights.

Now, the Phillies are clearly part of baseball’s upper class.  They spend a lot of money and are seen as a desired destination for free agents.

Baseball’s financial system clearly has some problems.  But when dealing with an imperfect system, it’s always better to be on the good side.  I’ve seen it from both sides, and this is much better.

I’m sure fans of other teams will complain about the Phillies trying to buy a championship.  I’ve already heard a lot of “Yankees of the National League” talk.  I can understand people’s anger.  If I was a fan of the Rays or Pittsburgh Pirates, I would probably feel the same way.  If it’s any consolation, Phillies fans had to endure many years of suffering before we got to this point.

4. The Phillies could have re-signed Jayson Werth if they wanted to

Obviously, despite their earlier claims of maxing out their payroll, there was still money available.  And they did in fact offer Werth a sizable deal.  But they weren’t going to give him the money—and perhaps more importantly, the number of years—that the Nationals did.

Unlike Lee, Werth didn’t want to stay in Philadelphia enough to take a below-market deal, and I don’t really blame him.  Werth’s early career was derailed by injuries, and he never received a big contract.  He had already won a World Series as a complimentary player, so why not take the money and see if he can help another team win as one of the main stars?

It seems that the Phillies felt that if they were going to pay someone that much money, they’d be better off spending it on a top pitcher like Lee.  Werth has been a very good player for the Phillies, but they seem to feel the same way that I do.  The lineup is based around Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.  Werth is a very good compliment to them, but ultimately he can be replaced.

5. The Phillies will be good in 2011

As I said earlier, you can’t buy a World Series title.  But you can certainly put yourself in good position to win one, and that’s what the Phillies have done.

The Phillies lineup does have some questions considering how they underperformed last year.  But despite all their problems, they still managed to score the second-most runs in the National League and win 97 games.

Barring a severe decline in performance by their stars (doubtful based on everyone’s track record) or injury problems (much more likely due to past injury history and advancing age), the Phillies should make the playoffs. 

Predicting a playoff winner is much more difficult, as playoff victories seem to be more due to matchups and which team gets hot at the right time.  Still, being able to send out an ace-caliber pitcher every game will give the Phillies a huge advantage in the postseason as well.

So for Phillies fans, everything should seem great this morning.  Cliff Lee is back, and the Phillies once again look like favorites for the World Series.

Originally published on my blog: Stranger in a Strange Land

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