Kuzul

While baseball award predictions are usually thwarted by hot Septembers, cold Septembers and injuries, one cannot deny the fun of it.

The 2013 NL Cy Young race is a particularly interesting debate, since they are a few very good hurlers taking the mound every fifth day, but no clear-cut favorite.

There are so many good NL pitchers this season that I knew I would insult a couple candidates by narrowing the field down down to five contestants.

Jordan Zimmerman, Jason Grilli, and Cliff Lee were my final cuts.

So, without further adieu, the 2013 NL Cy Young race, according to Phil…

Begin Slideshow

The trade deadline is less than two weeks away and there is no doubt that several high-profile players will be changing teams before it passes. Players like Matt Garza, Cliff Lee and Chase Utley could all be dealt soon and may end up having huge impacts on playoff races.

Even the teams in first place coming out of the All-Star break know they have holes to fill, and now that there are two Wild Card spots, more teams feel they can make a run, and you can bet that the players on this list will be pursued heavily.

The following players are ranked according to the impact they can have if traded.

Present and past statistics, as well as present ability, are the best ways to judge the impact a player might have if traded.

It is also important to note how a player’s current environment factors into their statistics. A power hitter who plays in a big park might not have great numbers, but could do a lot for a contending team that plays in a hitters’ park.

Begin Slideshow

Cliff Lee was not happy with his reception at the 2013 MLB All-Star Game.

The Philadelphia Phillies pitcher was booed by New York Mets fans (as expected), and he responded with a death stare that would make even Kobe Bryant jealous.

Scary stuff.

Other players might be happy (or at least show some emotion) at hearing their name called before an All-Star Game, but not Lee. He didn’t move a muscle when his name was announced before his fourth Midsummer Classic.

Lee’s look didn’t go unnoticed, and Twitter loved his stare.

Pictures and screen grabs of Lee’s face exploded like a bomb on Twitter, and everyone had to show just how angry he looked.

Cliff Lee is not impressed pic.twitter.com/eDa1YDTLRY

— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) July 16, 2013

Maybe Lee really doesn’t like the city of New York. After all, he chose not to sign with the New York Yankees during his free agency in 2010.

Clearly, Cliff Lee does not — Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) July 16, 2013

Amy Nelson clearly loved Lee’s reaction.

Cliff Lee, best moment in All-Star game history. Ever.

— Amy K. Nelson (@AmyKNelson) July 16, 2013

Lee’s face will go down in history as one of the most unique reactions to an introduction at an All-Star Game.

Cliff Lee’s stone face during introductions was classic…

— Troy Renck (@TroyRenck) July 16, 2013

Lee looks like he was just called for jury duty, not introduced for a game for which it is an honor to be selected.

Perhaps the thrill of being named to the All-Star Game has worn off for him. Perhaps he didn’t appreciate his welcome. Perhaps he ate some bad sushi earlier that day and was regretting it.

Any way you look at it, Lee simply didn’t look like Citi Field was where he wanted to be on Tuesday night, and nothing said that better than the evil eye he gave.

Follow @JoshSchoch

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

In recent days, much has been ballyhooed about the Philadelphia Phillies standing in the National League East division. At five games below .500 and nine-and-a-half games from the division leading Atlanta Braves, fans are clamoring for the Phillies to sell their most esteemed pieces in order to gain in the future with highly regarded prospects.

However, the Phillies are right where they were expected to be. Only those with blinders on would have expected more. With Ruben Amaro Jr. at the helm of arranging this roster, only more of the same can be expected so long as he’s the general manager.

For instance, the starting rotation leads Major League Baseball with 55 quality starts (QS). For comparison’s sake, the Washington Nationals have 46 QS while the Pittsburgh Pirates have tallied 38 QS. 

The Earned Run Average (ERA) of the starting pitchers for Philadelphia is 4.03. Compared to the rest of MLB, this is average. However, the Phillies’ starters Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.75 is near the top in MLB. According to FanGraphs, FIP “measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average.”

FIP suggests we should take a look at the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) which measures “the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out.” A strong indicator of defensive performance beyond the pitching, RZR is indicative of the woes that can plague a good pitching staff backed by inadequate defense in the field.

Philadelphia ranks 24th in MLB in RZR (.826). Aside from the New York Yankees (ranked 25th), the other five teams worse in this category sit with sub-.500 win-loss records. They include the Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers.

Defense hasn’t been the only liability for the Phillies.

The relievers bode a 4.60 ERA, slotted in as the second worst in all of MLB. Unlike the Phillies starting rotation though, this high ERA cannot be hitched to poor defense. After all, the bullpen’s FIP is third worst in baseball at 4.39. They also have the third worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at -0.8.

The Phillies hitting has been abysmal as well. Despite a power surge from Domonic Brown, the lineup ranks 22nd in WAR (7.2). Comparatively speaking, the Chicago Cubs (8.8), Kansas City Royals (9.5) and San Diego Padres (13.0) all fare better in this metric.

The team’s batting average of .255 is near the league median and their strikeout rate is average. However, the Phillies sluggers have showed little patience at the plate, boasting one of the league’s worst walk rates (6.9 percent).

Simply put, the current makeup of the roster is not working out. Chase Utley, Michael Young and Carlos Ruiz are all set to be free agents following the season. It would make sense for Amaro Jr. to deal these players. Since they are not helping place the Phillies in serious contention, why not give the likes of Cesar Hernandez, Cody Asche and Tommy Joseph extended looks as we crawl through the summer?

On top of that, it would behoove the Phillies to unload the contract of closer Jonathan Papelbon. The 32-year-old is set to earn $13 million per annum through 2015 with a vesting option for 2016. At the same time, Pirates closer Jason Grilli will earn $2.5 million this year and $4 million next. Yes, the same Grilli that Amaro Jr. cut in 2011 has gone on to become one of the best closers in baseball.

For now, it would seem that any team willing to take Papelbon off of the Phillies would be reluctant to do so unless the Phils are willing to eat some of the salary owed to the closer. This might be a significant hurdler to overcome.

In regard to ace Cliff Lee, it would be foolish to deal him now. Despite the $25 million per year he will be owed through 2015 (with a club option for 2016), Lee is more valuable to the Phillies than he would be should they attain prospects via trade. 

Why?

In reality, the Phillies are still not stuck between a rock and a hard place. Sure, they have no hope of winning the World Series in 2013 but a looming television deal could increase their potential to bring in better talent in the very near future.

The trust factor is nonexistent with general manager Amaro Jr., though. Remember, he was the same GM that thought bringing Jim Thome into a NL ballpark was a good idea (skipper Charlie Manuel signed off on that, too).

Amaro Jr. is also the one who orchestrated the $50 million contract for Papelbon. In regard to this, the average 2013 salary of the top eight closers (aside from Mariano Rivera) in terms of saves is $3.98 million. The list includes Grilli, Craig Kimbrel, Edward Mujica, Ernesto Frieri and Addison Reed.

Quite frankly, paying a reliever not named Mo Rivera is asinine since the Grillis and Mujicas of the baseball world continue to prove over and over again inflated valuation of the closer role is nonsensical.

Speaking of sense, the only way to make any of the Phillies 2013 campaign is to point the finger at Amaro Jr. He engineered the roster his way and it has simply not worked. As many have been saying since last season, it is time to change course–not only with the roster but with the management as well.

Statistics and metrics sourced from Fangraphs.

Salary information sourced from SpoTrac.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Earlier today, I named seven players guaranteed to be traded by the July 31st deadline. Not surprisingly, all seven will be free agents after the season and play on teams that aren’t in playoff contention now and aren’t expected to be a month from now. 

On the flip side, there is an entire different group of players that might become available if their teams either fall out of the playoff race or fail to make a run to get back to within striking distance. Then there are the rebuilding teams, such as the Astros and Marlins, with valuable trade chips who are under team control for a few more seasons. Trading them could make sense if a particular organization feels that the return will help expedite the rebuilding process. 

Which teams will be left standing as playoff contenders in late July is still to be determined, but it’s likely that many of them will be asking about the availability of these six players in hopes of acquiring them for the stretch run and beyond. 

Begin Slideshow

Starting pitcher Cliff Lee and general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. of the Philadelphia Phillies both want to win, but they might soon do it on different teams.

The Phillies have come to a fork in the road, and the club has to decide whether to blow up the remaining pieces from the last few years of success or build around aging stars.

On Thursday, Lee told Ryan Lawrence of the Daily News that he just wants to win and he doesn’t mind leaving Philly to do so:

“I definitely want to win—there’s no doubt about that,” Lee said when asked if he wanted to remain in Philly.

And what if the team is still going nowhere fast a month from now?

“I want to win,” Lee repeated. ‘I don’t know how else to say it besides that. I want to win.”

Lee has been rumored to be on the trade block all season. The Phillies aren’t contending for a playoff spot at 32-35, and he would be a valuable asset to a contending team.

Cliff Lee prefers Philly, but he just wants to win somewhere. http://t.co/53lSmgSy6o

— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) June 14, 2013

In an article from ESPN’s Jayson Stark, Amaro responded to Lee’s comments on Friday, but he didn’t seem nearly as open to a trade as Lee is.

They’re all rumors, and we don’t comment on rumors. But I don’t see what the benefit would be to our organization to trade [Lee]. They’re players we’ve got who can help us win, and we’re better off with them than without them.

People would like us to improve our club, but at what cost? You have to have replacement pieces if you’re going to trade someone like that.

If we have [guys like Lee] at the top of our rotation, we’re a better club. … It starts and ends with pitching, as far as I’m concerned. So the more quality pitching you have, the better chance you have to build around that to win.

He doesn’t have a “trade-me” clause. So while I understand that he wants to play for a winner, I think we can provide that for him in Philadelphia.

Amaro and Lee are clearly not on the same page right now, and the Phillies GM is making a big mistake by not trading the 34-year-old ace.

Lee has been on fire this year, going 8-2 with a 2.55 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, despite getting just 3.57 runs of support per start this year. There is a market for Lee, but Amaro appears to be ignoring it.

Mike Axisa of CBS Sports reported that the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals have expressed interest in Lee, and at least one of those clubs has to be willing to make an interesting offer.

However, as Axisa also said, Lee’s hefty contract will be weighing on the minds of those GMs interested in him and will limit the market:

The Phillies owe Lee roughly $17 million the rest of this year, and he’s under contract for another $62.5 million through 2015 if his option for 2016 doesn’t vest. If it does—he needs to throw 200 innings in 2015 or 400 total innings from 2014-2015 to lock it in—he’s owed $77.5 million from 2014-2016. That’s a lot of money for an aging pitcher who is showing at least small signs of decline. Now is as good a time as any to move him and kick-start a rebuild.

Despite the financial costs to bring in Lee, the benefit to a contender could outweigh the price.

With an ace like Lee, a team like the Red Sox or Cardinals would become the front-runner for the World Series. That could be worth an extra $40 million or so, depending on how much the Phillies kick in.

What’s the benefit to the Phillies? They could bring in a few top prospects for their bona fide ace.

If Lee goes to the Orioles, top pitching prospects Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausman might be part of the trade.

If the Red Sox pick up Lee, young pitchers such as Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo and Matt Barnes might be up for grabs.

If Lee is traded to the Cardinals, Lance Lynn might wind up in Philly, or Michael Wacha and Tyler Lyons could join the pitching staff.

Any team interested in Lee would have to put together a substantial package that would bolster Philadelphia’s farm system and prepare the team for the future. Amaro’s only choice is to rebuild the Phillies by exchanging Lee for young prospects.

What’s the alternative? Building a team that is already 7.5 games out of a playoff spot around a 34-year-old pitcher who is declining? That’s insane. While Lee might have two good years left, fresh young talent could help the Phillies for the next decade.

The Phillies have an aging roster that needs to be blown up, and the team should be trying to rebuild around young guns like outfielders Domonic Brown and Ben Revere and ace Cole Hamels, who is five years younger than Lee.

Lee could be the biggest prize on the trade market, and he would warrant two, three or even four talented prospects in return. If Amaro passes up the chance to rebuild the Phillies with youth, he would be making a big mistake.

Follow @JoshSchoch

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It is about that time of the Major League Baseball season.

Despite having played only a little over a third of their season, the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders. And with that separation comes speculation of whether certain teams will be buyers or sellers come the MLB trade deadline at the end of July.

One team that faces a particularly tough decision this year is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Currently sitting seven-and-a-half games back of the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves and seven games back of the second wild-card spot, the Phils are slowly starting to see their season get out of hand.

Now, this is not to say that the Phillies are totally out of the playoff hunt. After all, it is only the beginning of June. And of course, it was less than six years ago when the “Fightins” erased a seven-game deficit with 17 games remaining to snatch the division crown from the New York Mets.

However, this is a completely different team than what we saw back in that memorable fall of 2007. Gone are the days of seeing a healthy Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins take the field on a daily basis. The core of this team is six years older, and while they may still have some gas left in the tank, it is safe to say that the best years of their careers are behind them.

Before I go on, I must say that it is simply too early to say that Philadelphia will definitely be sellers come the July 31 trade deadline. Only the next six weeks will tell us whether the Phillies will look to start building for the future or add big-name talent in hopes of a last-gasp playoff run. 

However, the obvious must be stated: The Phillies are a team on the decline. Howard, Utley and Rollins are all on the wrong side of 30 years old. None of the three can be guaranteed to stay healthy or contribute regularly. Formerly the core of this franchise, the heart and soul of Philadelphia’s beloved baseball team, these three can no longer be counted on to lead the Phillies to the playoffs and beyond.

Even the starting pitching, which was said to be the bright spot on this Phillies roster, can no longer be trusted. Roy Halladay cannot seem to stay healthy, Cole Hamels is having one of the worst years of his career and the back end of this rotation simply does not have the experience to take over the reigns just yet.

Despite positive performances this season by Cliff Lee, Kyle Kendrick and Jonathan Pettibone, the Phillies are simply not getting consistent outings from their starting rotation.

All in all, the outlook is not bright for Philadelphia.

So, what does this mean for the team’s trade deadline plans?

Although Philadelphia may not have the best chance to make the playoffs this season, this does not silence the fact that this team still has plenty of talent on its roster.

Namely, Cliff Lee, who has been having an outstanding season compiling a 7-2 record with a 2.45 Earned Runs Average, may in fact be one of the players that Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. decides to deal by the July 31 deadline. 

At age 34 and set to earn $75 million over the next three seasons, the time is winding down for Lee to win a championship in Philadelphia. Amaro Jr. may well decide that if Lee’s age and money is too much for him to stay in the City of Brotherly Love, then it could be his time to go. Apparently, even Lee is preparing himself to be in another deadline trade.

However, Lee is not the only one who could find himself out of Philadelphia before the end of the summer. Chase Utley, the beloved second baseman for the Phillies, may be playing in another uniform later this season.

At 34, Utley is in the final year of a seven-year, $85 million contract and is set to become a free agent at the end of the season. While Utley has been cursed with injuries throughout his career, he is still producing at a level that may interest teams who are looking to be contenders later this season.

With seven home runs and 25 RBI to go along with a .272 BA so far this season, Utley may be the missing piece for some teams who are looking for depth come the postseason. Moreover, Amaro Jr. may feel that he might not be able to re-sign Utley to the terms he may be looking for in the offseason. This might force Amaro Jr. to try and get some value for Utley while he still can.

However, the single biggest reason why the Phillies will turn out to be sellers come this year’s MLB trade deadline is their farm system. Or, shall I say, lack thereof.

According to Baseball America, the Phillies have the seventh-worst farm system in all of the major leagues. While fans love to see the big-name players such as Lee, Utley and Howard play at Citizens Bank Park on a regular basis, most would probably agree that it is time to restock the farm. 

It is clear that the Phillies’ window of opportunity is closing quickly. After a run of success from 2007-2011, Philadelphia’s record has tailed off significantly over the past year-and-a-half. One way to regain this success may well be to start from scratch and build for the future.

Becoming sellers at the trade deadline and dealing the likes of Lee, Utley and Rollins may be the best way to do so. 

Only time will tell whether or not the Phillies become buyers or sellers in late-July. If, six weeks from now, the Phillies were to be right in the midst of the playoff hunt, then you can put money on this team staying together. 

However, as the age and the health of this roster is undoubtedly on the decline, the chances of this happening certainly seem bleak. While it is unlikely that the entire core of the Phillies roster will be traded, it is safe to expect that certain ballplayers will find themselves cleaning their lockers at Citizens Bank Park come later this summer.    

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Boston Red Sox may need an additional starting pitcher down the stretch, and Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cliff Lee is one name that could come up in conversation.

Lee is a name that the Red Sox have considered in the past but have never been able to acquire. This past December, Boston offered to send center field Jacoby Ellsbury to the Phillies in exchange for Lee, but the Phillies rejected it, according to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly (h/t WEEI):

According to multiple sources, the Red Sox approached the Phillies about a Jacoby Ellsbury for Cliff Lee deal and were told that Lee was not available, … The Phils won’t break up their Lee-Cole Hamels-Roy Halladay trio. (Check back in July if the team is not in contention.

It’s not July yet, but it’s not too early to start thinking about what could happen over the next two months. The Phillies currently sit in third place of the NL East at 13-16 and don’t seem to be playing their best baseball right now.

While Lee has been fine, for lack of a better term, through six starts, that trio that Philadelphia didn’t want to break up yet has been a bit of a disaster.

The Red Sox could become interested in the left-hander should the current rotation start to falter as the season drags on. Sure, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester have both been outstanding, and Ryan Dempster has looked good so far, but will Felix Doubront or John Lackey hold up the rest of the way?

Lackey has already dealt with biceps problems just a couple of starts since undergoing Tommy John surgery, and Doubront continues to have pitch-count issues—averaging less than six innings per start despite throwing over 100 pitches.

Boston could have Alfredo Aceves and/or Franklin Morales ready to go in an emergency situation, but having Lee on the mound instead gives the Red Sox a much better opportunity to win.

All Boston has to do is keep winning and hope that the Phillies continue to lose, and the Red Sox may have a decent shot at acquiring him. Salisbury wrote Friday:

The Red Sox inquired about Lee before the winter meetings and were told he was not available because the Phillies believed they needed him to make a run in 2013 … If that run fails the Phils will likely change their mindset and Lee will become the prize of July trade market. Lee has a limited no-trade clause, but these things have a way of being resolved.

Salisbury also talks about how, although Lee is a very expensive option—owed $25 million this season and $62.5 million the next three seasons—teams would be interested for one reason: “To win the World Series.”

Lee has veteran leadership and has been a good postseason pitcher over the course of his career, despite only a handful of trips to the playoffs.

The question remains as to what the Phillies are going to want in exchange for a player of Lee’s caliber. Philadelphia said no to Ellsbury, one of Boston’s best trade chips, last season, but the price could drop depending on whether the Phillies are ready to restart the rebuilding process.

The main idea of Salisbury’s article is to talk about how the Phillies have inquired about Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton, but they don’t have a great farm system in order to acquire him. As Salisbury puts it, “Close-to-major-league-ready pitching is the Phillies’ strength, but the team could be reluctant to move too much of that supply as the core of its big-league pitching staff gets older.”

So what if Boston offered Philadelphia some prospects that would allow the Phillies to keep their top pitching prospects and still enhance the likelihood that they’d acquire Stanton?

Now we’re talking.

In a sense, the Phillies need to acquire talent that would interest the Marlins. Boston has that type of talent. In my estimation, Miami should be all set in the outfield, at catcher and somewhat on the mound. The Marlins could use a middle infielder and probably a corner infielder as well.

Hypothetically speaking, Boston would receive Lee, Philadelphia would receive Stanton, and Miami would receive a bunch of top-to-mid-level prospects that would likely include the likes of Rubby De La Rosa, Bryce Brentz, Garin Cecchini and maybe even Jose Iglesias. But hey, maybe the Marlins want even more than that.

The point here is that the Red Sox need to provide the Phillies with the assets to potentially acquire Stanton down the road—or at least convince them they’ll have enough to do so by dealing Lee to Boston.

If the Red Sox are going to win the World Series this season, they’ll likely need to add at least one “big” piece at or before the trade deadline. Lee could end up being the guy who helps bring another title to Boston.

*All statistics in this article were obtained via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All contract information was obtained via Cot’s Contracts.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Who’s the hottest pitcher in the majors? There’s Yu Darvish, the Texas Rangers right-hander who nearly threw a perfect game his first time out. Or maybe it’s Atlanta Braves lefty Paul Maholm, who is 3-0 and has thrown 20.1 scoreless innings.

But we can’t forget about Matt Harvey, the New York Mets righty who’s the first pitcher since 1900 to win each of his first three starts while notching 25 strikeouts and allowing six or fewer hits, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Indeed, no pitcher in baseball is off to a hotter start right now—or maybe ever—than Harvey.

Each of those three hurlers has been Cy Young-worthy so far, but frankly, it seems way too early for any award discussion. Or is it?

Which brings us to the question: Do Cy Young winners always get off to hot starts?

When we explored whether Most Valuable Players always get off to hot starts, the answer was a resounding yes. But let’s analyze the arms and see what we can find out.

First, let’s refresh your memory with a list of the Cy Young winners since 2000:

*For the purposes of this research, we’ll ignore Eric Gagne’s 2003 because comparing starters to relievers is more or less futile. For the record, though, Gagne did pitch extremely well that April: In 14.1 innings, the Dodgers closer allowed no runs on six hits and three walks with 24 whiffs. Oh, and he tallied eight saves.

From 2000 through 2012, there were 25 individual Cy Young seasons by starting pitchers, and here are their average stats for the month of April:

That translates to a 3-1 record with a 2.85 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and a 37-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 37 innings in the season’s first month.

Pretty nasty.

But what’s interesting is that not all Cy Young winners are created equal when it comes to April performances.

Focusing on ERA and WHIP, 11 of the 25 individual seasons (or nearly half) actually have been worse than “Cy Young average”—again, a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP—in both stats through April:

Granted, neither stat provides a perfect measure of just how good—or in this case, ungood—a pitcher has been, but taken together, ERA and WHIP give us at least some indication.

What do you notice about the table above? How ’bout the fact that in just about every season since 2000, at least one eventual Cy Young winner has had a so-so (or worse) first month? In fact, 10 of the past 12 seasons featured an award-winning arm who got off on the wrong foot.

But if that’s the case—if a hot start isn’t necessary—then how do these Cy Young winners manage to, well, win the Cy Young exactly?

By getting better as the season progresses, silly.

Let’s shift gears to another statistic: OPS allowed (on base-plus-slugging percentage). You may recall our old metric friends, sOPS+ and tOPS+, from the MVP study. In short…

• sOPS+ is a version of OPS that is weighted to league average, which is 100; for pitchers, an sOPS+ below 100 is better than league average (i.e., good)
• tOPS+ is a version of OPS that is weighted to compare a pitcher’s OPS allowed in a given period of time against his OPS allowed for the entirety of that same season; similarly, a tOPS+ below 100 means a pitcher’s OPS allowed was better in that time frame than it was compared to the season as a whole.

If your eyes just glazed over, these tables will make it easier to digest. This one shows the April sOPS+ for each Cy Young winner over the past 13 seasons:

Basically, the boxes that are shaded green indicate that the pitcher’s OPS allowed in April was better than league average, whereas any boxes shaded red indicate worse than league average. While only four eventual Cy Young winners posted a below-average OPS allowed in April, there also were a handful of others that were only slightly above-average (i.e., Johan Santana in 2004).

In other words, on the whole, these pitchers were very good compared to the league, but they weren’t immune to slow starts.

By the way: What Cliff Lee did in April of 2008 (.361 OPS against), as well as what Pedro Martinez (.475) and Randy Johnson did in April of 2000 (.431), should be illegal.

This next table shows their tOPS+ in April:

Same story: Green is good (above-average), but red is bad (below-average). Except this time, we’re comparing each pitcher’s April OPS allowed to his OPS allowed for the full season in which he won the Cy Young.

You’ll notice a lot more red. In fact, 16 of the 25 Aprils are crimson, meaning a majority of the Cy Young winners since 2000 actually were below-average—for them—as far as OPS allowed in the first month of their award-winning campaign.

What does this all mean? Well, for one thing, it proves that just because Yu Darvish, Paul Maholm and Matt Harvey are in line for crazy-good Aprils, it doesn’t guarantee that some slower-starting ace isn’t lying in wait to pitch his way to the 2013 Cy Young Award.

Because for starters, it’s not always how you start.

All stats come from Baseball Reference.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

If it became a movie, Cliff Lee‘s Philadelphia story would be a romantic comedy with scenes of brilliant light and unbearable darkness.

The first time the Phillies dealt for Lee, in 2009, the deal was viewed as “adding another top starter to join Cole Hamels,” per ESPN.com.

No one could have known, though, that it would be Lee and not Hamels who would be the unhittable one in the 2009 playoffs.

In five postseason starts, Lee went 4-0 in 40.1 innings pitched. He gave up seven earned runs in that entire postseason.

So, naturally, the Phillies did what any sensible club would do with a pitcher who had done what Lee just did.

They traded him to Seattle.

History has proven this trade to be as dumb as it seemed at the time. None of the pieces the Phillies received in return (right-hander Phillippe Aumont, outfielder Tyson Gillies and right-hander Juan Ramirez) have the look of big-time major league contributors.

In fact, only Aumont seems to have a future in the big leagues at all.

The Phillies righted the wrong by signing Lee to a long-term contract in December 2010.

When the Phillies signed Cliff Lee to that five-year, $120 million deal, the prevailing narrative was that the fans never wanted Lee to leave Philadelphia in the first place. 

At Lee’s December 2010 press conference announcing his return to Philadelphia, Lee said things that Phillies fans always wanted to hear. 

“I don’t know what the fans do to create that much more volume and excitement in the stadium, but it’s definitely something extra here,” Lee said. “They’re passionate fans. They understand what’s going on. They don’t need a teleprompter to tell them to get up and cheer.”

It was a feel-good story and a feel-good time for both Lee and the Phillies.

Since that day, though, the good times have been fewer and further between.

Lee’s fingerprints were all over the Phillies’ loss in the 2011 National League Division Series to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Staked to a four-run lead in Game 2 with his team already leading the best-of-five series 1-0, Lee gave it all back and the Phillies’ stranglehold on the series was gone.

It never returned.

And then last season, Lee posted his first losing record (6-9) since going 5-8 in 20 starts for the 2007 Cleveland Indians.

All of the peripheral numbers were fine. Lee’s earned run average of 3.16 was easily among the top 10 in the National League. He struck out 207 hitters in 211 innings. His WHIP was 1.11.

Which leads, ultimately, to the moral of the story.

One way or another, Lee accepted a discounted rate to sign his one-time-only mega-free-agent deal with the Phillies.

Only two years of the five guaranteed are gone, and in that short time, the Phillies have gone from perennial favorite in the National League East to the division’s consensus third-place team behind the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves.

And if the 2013 Phillies cannot improve on last season’s 81-81 and get back to the postseason, significant personnel changes are very likely.

In fact, even if the Phillies do find their way back into the October championship tournament, the likes of Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Michael Young (all on expiring contracts) are probably going to leave.

Which brings us to the big question.

If Cliff Lee knew in December 2010 what he knows now, would he have come back to Philadelphia?

And if he had the chance to leave now, would he?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com