Kuzul

Courtesy of Yankees ‘n More

It has been widely reported that the New York Yankees have engaged in talks with free agent Carl Crawford because they consider him a potential “plan B” should they fail to sign the apple of their eye, pitcher Cliff Lee.

What has not been mentioned at all, however, is the possibility that New York might also be considering the speedy outfielder as a “plan B” should Andy Pettitte decide to retire.

And why wouldn’t they?

If Crawford really is considered a backup plan in the event that Lee doesn’t sign on, why on earth wouldn’t he be just as good a backup plan—if not better—in the event that Pettitte decides to retire?—And by the way, it’s sounding more and more as if that is exactly what Andy Pettitte intends to do.

Think about it.

The thought behind Crawford serving as a “plan B” for Lee was that the Yankees would take the majority of the money set aside for the lefty ace and give it to Crawford, then use one of their current outfielders—most likely Nick Swisher or Curtis Granderson—to acquire a starting pitcher.

If Pettitte calls it a career, the Yankees are still one pitcher short of a rotation even IF they sign Lee.

However, they would be in better shape—who wouldn’t rather have Lee than Pettitte next year, given the option?

The Yankees could then deal one of their outfielders—we’re betting on Swisher—for a starting pitcher to fill in at the 4-hole behind CC Sabathia, Lee and Phil Hughes.

The money the team was ready to pay to Pettitte—at least $12 million—combined with Swisher’s 2011 salary—$9.1 million—would easily cover the salary for Crawford.

And don’t forget, Crawford is a guy the Yankees—especially Cashman—have pined over for YEARS now, and he’s EXACTLY the type of player—super athletic, fast, great defense—the Yankees GM has been targeting in the post-PED era.

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The rumors are flying in the already steaming Major League Baseball hot stove.  With the Winter Meetings starting today, many free agents are sure to find new homes in the upcoming days and weeks.

But where will they end up? The answer is not as sure for some as it is for others. 

With the outlandish deal given to Jayson Werth, the uncertainty of this offseason has dramatically increased. After more major players sign, the dominoes are sure to fall. Here are 10 of the most coveted prizes of this offseason, their possible suitors and where they will end up. 

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My upcoming articles will look at each free agent this season, signed or unsigned, and try to analyze what the player can be expected to do over the coming years, what the player will probably get (or has gotten) on the free agent market, and what I would want to pay the player if I was in charge. I’ll go in the order of Jeff Passan’s free-agent tracker (here), starting with his top-ranked player: Cliff Lee.

Deal he will get: 7 years, 20 million/year

Deal he should get: 4 years, 15 million/year

Lot’s to say about Cliff Lee, but first let’s look at this:

2002-2007: 741.2 innings pitched, 9.3 H/9, 3.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 2.15 K/BB.

2008-2010: 667.1 innings pitched, 8.8 H/9, 1.3 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 5.64 K/BB

There’s a widespread consensus that Cliff Lee is the best pitcher on the market right now, and I don’t think that’s unreasonable. There are, however, worthwhile questions to be asked about whether he’s going to come at the best value. Estimates for his signing are in the neighborhood of 6 to 7 years for 20+ million annually. My concern is not with the 33-year old Cliff Lee of 2011, but the 38 year old Cliff Lee that looms ahead. If someone wants to be paying 20 million for the 33 and 34 year old Lees, they’re going to have to pay at least that for the 37-38 year old version.

A couple of things are being said in Lee’s favor, one of which is that he “started late.” Well, we don’t really know how much that means. It isn’t as though he never threw a pitch until his 27^th birthday. He had logged over 700 innings before 2008. He only became really good around age 28. He wasn’t overused before that, but he did pitch. I don’t like this “late-bloomer” argument. I acknowledge that he has some good years in his future, but we cannot assume he’s going to be as brilliant as he approaches his fortieth birthday. He has thrown 667.1 innings over the last three years (plus another 76 IP in the playoffs). He was not used to that sort of workload prior. He isn’t a Roy Halladay or a CC Sabathia, injuries are a distinct possibility.

Enough of the bad. Cliff Lee is a pitcher who gets guys out with control, and that’s a relatively rare thing when coupled with such great results. He could stand to lose a few mph on his fastball and still get guys out with his brilliant breaking ball and pinpoint control, so there may be reason to believe that the years won’t hurt him too badly.

There is something special about Cliff Lee’s walk rate. He was a pretty dominant strikeout guy in 2010, with 7.8 per nine innings. Though he faced some weak lineups, to walk 18 guys in 212.1 innings requires some serious talent. Most pitchers probably couldn’t do it even if they tried to throw every pitch right down the middle. Cliff Lee lives on the corners though, so his pitches are not especially hittable, which makes his walk total that much more impressive. His delivery is deceptive (and a joy to watch). His mechanics are sharp, and his success in this respect is not a fluke.

Lee’s average fastball was 91.3 mph in 2010. That’s his highest mark for any season of his career. His curveball was 15 mph slower, with outstanding movement. His best pitch was his fastball, though all of his pitches were effective according to fangraphs’ pitch type values. 69.8% first-pitch strikes led the league (one of only 5 guys north of 65%). 72% of pitches out of the zone were hit, which is interesting. You could say he’s getting ahead early and getting guys to reach for balls they cant square up on. Or you could say guys have spared him a dozen or so walks. It’s clear he has good control; what is unclear is the rate at which this will change over coming years. His 56.6% in-the-zone rate lead all of baseball in 2010.

I love the high strikeout, low walk combination. He had 10.28 strikeouts for every walk in 2010. That’s the third-highest mark ever. Only Bret Saberhagen in 1994 and Candy Cummings in 1875 posted better marks. Baseball was different in Mr. Cummings’ day; he threw 416 innings that year, and struck out 1.8 per nine. He allowed four walks (one per 104 innings).

Back to the injury thing, now. It’s bad resource allocation to tie up 15 to 25 or more percent of your payroll for a guy who is as likely to be hurt as I think Cliff Lee is. I know he isn’t Mark Prior, but Cliff Lee makes sense for a team like the Yankees who bleed dollar bills, and not a whole lot of sense for most other teams.

At the end of the day, I think Cliff Lee is going to be a Yankee. I expect the Yankees to tack one additional year onto whatever Texas offers and up the ante by at least 30 million. His friendship with CC Sabathia will probably overpower any forced smile Nolan Ryan can squeeze out of his stiff face. Going forward, the Yankees will probably give him a better chance of winning, and they’ll employ him until he’s 38.

Make no mistake, Cliff Lee will be good. I wouldn’t want to pay him for seven years though. It’s unfortunate that players tend to be paid for what they have done, rather than what they can be expected to do in the future. We know these two things are rarely congruous.

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Cliff Lee is, as expected, the most coveted free agent as the MLB Winter Meetings open this week in Florida. Despite the Boston Red Sox’ acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez and the mega-deal between Jayson Werth and the Nationals, Lee remains at the forefront of the rumor mill as proceedings begin.

Lee and agent Derek Braunecker have begun visiting with teams and will undertake more serious meetings as the week progresses, according to Braunecker. The New York Yankees and Texas Rangers remain the favorites to sign Lee, but Lee and Braunecker insist there are other teams in play. Read on for the inside scoop on Lee’s free-agent posturing and the clamor of his would-be suitors.

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Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford would love to give you a hug or at least send you a thank you card because what you did for his new contract isn’t something he can put into words.

Although, the stupidity of the Washington Nationals should be worth something to Crawford as well because if it wasn’t for the team in the nation’s capital, Crawford wouldn’t be looking at nearly the amount of money that he’ll command now.

We found out over the weekend that tIhe Nationals had signed the former Philadelphia Phillies’ outfielder to a seven-year $126 million contract. The most surprising thing about this deal was the fact that it was kept almost silent. With the social media available these days, that’s almost impossible and unheard of.

Before you look at Werth’s deal as the standard bearer, there’s a rumor floating around that the Red Sox and Adrian Gonzalez have agreed to an eight-year $161 million extension. But, there’s another story out that says the extension for Gonzalez will be seven-years for $154 million.

Money has gone crazy and baseball’s winter meetings are less than a few hours old. Werth gets $126 million, Gonzalez looks to be getting $161 million and Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford are still out there and available.

We are still yet to see two of the biggest contracts get signed.

But let’s stick with the deal the Nationals signed. I honestly didn’t think the Nationals would do something like this. Why sign a guy for that many years who is 1) over 30 and 2) end the contract two years shy of his 40th birthday?

Didn’t they learn anything from the Chicago Cubs and outfielder Alfonso Soriano? Anything at all?

Let’s not forget, this is the same Washington Nationals team that rushed pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg up to the big leagues so the fans would have something to look forward to.

Sure, he shined in his debut, and sure, there were plenty of sportswriters who were a blubbering mess when they talked about him, almost in the same way as teenage girls do when they talk about teeny bopper Justin Bieber.

It’s all well and good if you want to show off a little and boast that you have a guy who can throw 103 miles per hour consistently. I’m happy for the Nationals that they have a kid like that.

However, when it was time to shut him down, the Nationals didn’t want to do it. They were selling tickets and making money. He was their cash cow, no way were they going to do the right thing and shut him down for the season.

They were playing for nothing. Not a playoff spot, not a wild card spot, nothing. Yet they continued to run him out every fifth day until, surprise, Strasburg succumbed to the work load and had to undergo Tommy John surgery which will force him to miss the entire 2011 season.

Congratulations Washington. Was that worth it?

Let’s talk about former Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Carl Crawford who might get the biggest offseason contract of any player out there.

The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and a few other teams have big-time interest in this young outfielder, and for good reason. In 2009, he hit .307 with 19 home runs and 90 runs batted in. Not only that, but he’s a solid defender for any team looking to fill a hole in their outfield.

So if Werth gets $126 million, Gonzalez is apparently at $154 million, could Crawford be looking at a contract worth upwards of $170-$180 million or more? The other question is, who is really ready to pony up that kind of dough and for how many years?

Last, but certainly not least, is the Cliff Lee sweepstakes.

The top two teams that are involved in trying to lure Lee to their team are the New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers. There are going to be other teams in the running, but none that can match the two that I previously mentioned.

For the Rangers, it’s the draw of enjoying the guys he played with and has already been on the record of saying that he would love to be a part of the team next year. Not only that, but he’s within driving distance of his home in Arkansas.

As far as the Yankees go, it’s all about money and championships with them. If he signs with New York, it will be because they offered him either more years or more money per year than the Rangers.

If you’re either team, how much is this left hander, with plenty of playoff experience, worth to you?

We’re only through one day of the winter meetings with more moving pieces still to come over this week. I’m curious to see what kind of stupid money is thrown around this week, or will we not see two of the bigger contracts signed until after the holidays?

I won’t take anything away from Jayson Werth, I’ll just say congratulations and I hope you can live up to what they expect from you for the next seven years.

If not, most people will forget all about it. At least those outside of Washington D.C. Besides, there’s more pressure on a young teammate of yours than there is on you. 

I doubt very highly that Nationals’ general manager Mike Rizzo came to the winter meetings hoping to be mocked. But, he accomplished just that. Congratulations to you as well Mr. Rizzo.

The winter meetings are something that all of us baseball fans look forward to. We want to know when our teams are making a move and who they are interested in.

But, even the biggest Nationals fan said the following after hearing of the Jayson Werth deal. “Wait, we gave how much to who?!”

So now that Werth is a member of the $100-million club, I may as well send members-only jackets to Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. It’s just a matter of time before they join it as well.

Salary cap anyone?

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Tomorrow will begin an extremely important event for the baseball community, the Baseball Winter Meetings.

All eyes will be on Orlando, Florida at the Swan and Dolphin Resort in Walt Disney World as the meetings will take place from December 6 until December 9 (Monday until Thursday.)

Representatives from all 30 teams will be down in Florida, along with minor league baseball representatives and officials from the Major League Baseball offices as well.

While things like a Job Fair, a Trading Show and Seminars are going on, the General Managers will be looking to possibly make deals.

For Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman, he’s got one target in mind now.

Now, give Cashman credit, he did take care of his own players first this past week by re-signing Mariano Rivera to a two-year, $30 million deal and Derek Jeter to a three-year, $51 million deal.

Both Rivera and Jeter are locked up and good to go for 2011.

Now, Cashman can focus all his efforts into signing Cliff Lee.

This has been the rumored week where Lee and his agent Darek Braunecker are expected to hear offers and proposals from teams interested in him.

The Rangers are rumored to be offering Lee a possible five-year deal, probably around $20-22 million per season.

The Nationals are also interested in Lee, but who knows what kind of money they would be willing to give out.

The Yankees have their massive and steep checkbook ready for Lee.

The number of years shouldn’t be a problem, many have predicted six years.

The dollars will be no problem at all for the Yankees, which could be anywhere from $21-$24 million per season.

Rangers president Nolan Ryan thinks that the negotiations for Lee could take a while, but the Yankees have been known in the past to make quick offers that might be hard for other teams to counter.

If that is the case this week, and the Yankees make their offer to Lee and Braunecker, their offer might knock the Rangers and anyone else interested right out of the process altogether.

Getting Lee would certainly be the big splash of the 2010 Winter Meetings.

Back in the 2009 Winter Meetings, which were in Indianapolis, the Yankees made their big splash through a trade.

On December 9, 2009, The Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks made a three-team, seven-player deal that sent Curtis Granderson to New York.

Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy were sent to Arizona.

Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Austin Jackson and Phil Coke were sent to Detroit.

What was called a bust of a trade for the Yankees ended up working out, as Granderson started to pick up after a slow start in 2010, which included a one-month stint on the disabled list.

In the playoffs, Granderson was one of the hottest hitters for the Yankees, hitting .455 in the ALDS against the Twins and .294 in the ALCS against the Rangers.

With most of the main roster set for 2011, the Yankees may be only looking to make the one big move in Orlando.

Now, surely they could always look to add additional bullpen help, especially if Kerry Wood decides to play elsewhere next season. The Yankees also have Alfredo Aceves out for an extended period of time with a broken clavicle, and Damaso Marte isn’t expected back until after the All-Star Game in July.

But they will probably address the bullpen at a later time in the winter.

Because right now, the Yankees are all in on Lee, and from the statement made by Hank Steinbrenner last week, Yankees fans have to feel good about their chances of acquiring him.

Steinbrenner’s quote of “We want (Lee) and we’ll do whatever it takes to get him and to get it done,” leads you to believe that whatever Lee wants in a contract, the chances are, Lee will get it from the Yankees.

So tomorrow will mark the real beginning of the major part of the offseason for baseball.

For the Yankees, it begins their quest for Lee.

Stay tuned, Yankees Universe.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Courtesy of Yankees ‘n More

Everybody knows the New York Yankees have their hearts set on adding lefty ace Cliff Lee this offseason, perhaps as early as the winter meetings next week. Of late, however, there has been a lot of talk about the interest being shown by the Bronx Bombers in free agent outfielder Carl Crawford.

Much of that talk has centered around the legitimacy of New York’s interest. Specifically, does New York really want to sign him, or are they just driving up the price for Boston—assumed to be one of the teams most interested in Crawford— while also paying that team back for their interest shown in Mariano Rivera?

We might have the answer to that question. The Boston Red Sox are on the verge of completing a trade that would bring them first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Part of that deal will be a massive contract extension, which likely takes Boston all but out of the bidding for Crawford.

The Yankees, however, appear to remain, which could be the strongest sign yet of their desire to add the speedy outfielder. And New York might have found a clever way to add both Cliff Lee AND Carl Crawford while sticking to their word on “holding the payroll to about the same level as 2010.”

Deferred money. New deals for both Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter, which are all but done, BOTH include deferred money, and both are thought to be worth in the neighborhood of $15 million per year. We don’t know how much of the money is deferred, but $5 million per year on each doesn’t seem like a stretch.

But let’s be conservative. Let’s say the new deal for Jeter, not counting deferred money, pays him $15 million this year and the Rivera deal, after deferred money, pays the closer $12 million. $27 million this year for those two players would represent a decrease of $10.5 million from what New York paid those players in 2010.

If you then trade either Curtis Granderson or Nick Swisher—something that will absolutely happen if the Yankees sign Crawford, and we’re betting on Swisher—you EASILY have the money to sign Crawford without touching the money you’ve set aside for Lee.

All of the talk about the deferred money in the Jeter and Rivera contracts has dealt with saving the Yankees money on the luxury tax. We don’t believe it’s about that at all. We believe it’s about the Yankees getting the pitcher they love AND the outfielder for whom they have held a deep and longstanding infatuation.

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Derek Jeter, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, and Jayson Werth have the Hot Stove burning up and the MLB landscape is bound to look different, with Jeter the only one likely to end up back with the same team.

Rumors are flying around like mosquitoes in the summer time. The non-stop talk about Jeter can also be related to mosquitoes because they both do one thing to people: annoy them.  

Enough about mosquitoes, it’s time to get back to Hot Stove talk and address everything worth talking about right now in baseball.

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Once upon a time, a long, long time ago, there was a left-handed pitcher named Walter William Pierce. His friends called him “Billy.”

At the age of 31, Billy had pitched for 11 seasons. He averaged 16 wins, 13 defeats, a 3.14 ERA and a 126 ERA+ over a 162-game season, but in those days, a season was 154 games.

Twenty-one-year-old Billy worked only 55.1 innings for the 1948 Detroit Tigers, with a horrible 6.34 ERA. The Tigers had seen enough and traded him to the Chicago White Sox. It was one of the best trades the Sox ever made.

In his first season with the Pale Hose, Billy won only seven games but lost 15. Of greater significance, as modern statistics have demonstrated, was the fact that in 171.2 innings, Billy allowed only 145 hits. The potential was there.

Billy won 18 games in 1953 but became a really big winner with back-to-back 20-win seasons in 1956 and 1957.

Today, there is a left-handed pitcher named Cliff Lee. His friends call him Cliff.

At the age of 31, Cliff has pitched for 10 seasons. Just like Billy Pierce, Cliff has averaged 16 wins over a 162-game season. He has averaged 10 defeats, or three less than Billy, but Cliff has averaged an ERA of 3.87, compared to Billy’s 3.14, and an ERA+ of 111 compared to Billy’s 126.

Billy averaged 239 innings over a 162-game season, while Cliff averages 219 innings.

Since Billy pitched for the White Sox most of his career, he didn’t have many opportunities to pitch in the World Series, but in 1959, the Go-Go Sox won the pennant. Facing the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, Billy worked in relief, appearing in three games and allowing only two hits in four innings.

In 1962, Billy was a member of the pennant-winning San Francisco Giants. Billy started two games against the New York Yankees in the World Series. He was 1-1, allowing the World Champions only eight hits in 15 innings. He had a 2.40 ERA.

In his two World Series, Billy was 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA.

Cliff Lee appeared in the 2009 World Series with the Philadelphia Phillies. Cliff baffled the New York Yankees, as he won the only two games the Yankees lost to the Phils. Cliff’s ERA was 2.81, as he allowed 13 hits in 16 innings.

In 2010, Cliff faced the San Francisco Giants as a Texas Ranger. He started two games, lost two games and pitched to an ERA of 6.94 as the Giants became world champions for the first time since 1954.

In his two World Series, Cliff is 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA.

Billy Pierce’s highest salary was $41,000.

In 2010, Cliff Lee’s salary was $9 million, and the free agent will probably receive a minimum of $20 million a season for a minimum of five seasons.

Pierce’s $41,000 salary in 1958 would be worth about $310,000 today. The major league minimum is $400,000. Why isn’t Marvin Miller in the Hall of Fame?

Lee’s anticipated $20 million today would have the equivalent of $2.6 million in 1958.

At the age of 31, Billy Pierce and Cliff Lee had comparable careers. Cliff Lee is a solid pitcher, but if he had played in 1958, he would not have been in the same class as Warren Spahn, Whitey Ford, Robin Roberts (right-hander) or Jim Bunning (right-hander).

As Jimmy Jones used to sing,

“Timing a tick a tick a tick a
Good timing a tick a tick a tick a tick a
Timing is the thing
It’s true good timing brought me to you.”

References

Chicago Land

Good Timing

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There has been a lot of talk surrounding the New York Yankees this off-season like usual. Does Derek Jeter return? Does Andy Pettitte give it one more? Do they acquire Cliff Lee?

It boils down to a bunch of different scenarios this off-season. The Yankees can do any number of moves this year and have already started changing up their team for next season. I decided to jump in and take a look at who will possibly be in pinstripes next season.

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