Kuzul

Most of the Hot Stove headlines in Major League Baseball will go to the big-ticket free agents that have landed on the open market. Prudent teams, however, can often make major improvements to their rosters by targeting less-heralded players in free agency.

Given the big-money nature of MLB salaries in the 21st century, it’s hard to argue that any free agent signing is a true bargain, but when looking at players from a cost-to-production perspective, second-tier free agents can frequently pay big dividends.

While the focus will undoubtedly be on the negotiations teams hold with Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth and Adam Dunn, there are a myriad of other options more cost-conscious teams should explore during this 2010 free agent season.

Here I’ll go through 20 players who will fly under the Hot Stove radar, but could be bargain producers for teams in the 2011 season. This only covers a subjective sampling on my part, but be sure to chime in if you think a potential bargain signing was overlooked.

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When the Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez was announced as the winner of the 2010 American League Cy Young Award, it was hailed as a victory for statheads. And in a sense, it was—by selecting Hernandez over New York Yankees ace CC Sabathia, the Baseball Writers Association of America did not make the mistake of judging the best pitchers in the game by their win-and-loss records.

But while the BBWAA avoided the logical fallacy of holding hurlers accountable for the performance of their supporting offenses, they failed to distinguish the Cy Young candidates’ performances from those of their backing fielders.

While King Felix led the Junior Circuit with his 249.2 innings pitched and his 232 strikeouts were just one whiff away from Jeff Weaver for tops in the league, the main reason for his victory was his 2.27 Earned Run Average—the best in baseball.

But was Hernandez really the best pitcher in the league? Strikeouts and walks are the two things over which the guy on the mound has the most control; Hernandez’s 8.4 K/9 rate and 2.5 BB/9 were very good, no doubt, but they were good for just seventh and 14th in the league, respectively.

In fact, Hernandez’s 3.3 K:BB ratio was less than a third of the mark posted by the rightful AL Cy Young: Cliff Lee.

How can Lee have been better than Hernandez? King Felix had the edge in ERA (2.27 to 3.18), IP (249.2 to 212.1), strikeouts (232 to 185), BAA (.216 to .246), and yes, even wins (13 to 12).

But while there’s no denying Hernandez’s superiority in the cumulative categories, his advantages in the rate stats are simply the result of luck.

Fielding-Independent Pitching is an estimator of ERA that ignores the issue of defense—it’s based solely on strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. Lee’s 2.58 FIP was the best in the game; Hernandez’s 3.04 mark was over three-quarters of a run worse than his real ERA.

The most common counterargument to using FIP to judge performance is that it’s a measure of what should have happened, rather than what did happen. But to say this is to exhibit a fundamental misunderstanding of the statistic—think of it as the measure of how well a pitcher performed, superimposed into a neutral context.

What’s the cause of the discrepancy? The culprit was Batting Average on Balls in Play—the proportion of balls hit inside the stadium that fall for hits. The average BABIP is around .300, and major departures from the norm are usually due to luck.

Lee’s BABIP: an even .302. Hernandez’s: a fluky .273.

Of course, not all batted balls are equal; a line drive is much more likely to fall for a hit than an infield fly. Using Hernandez’s batted-ball profile, his true-talent BABIP is .287—so his edge over Lee isn’t all luck, right?

Wrong. Lee’s xBABIP is .283, meaning that, with a .302 BABIP, he’s had a fair bit of misfortune.

Still not convinced that Hernandez’s batted-ball profile doesn’t absolve him? His tERA (like FIP, but it takes into account the types of hits he gave up) was 2.95—68 points above his ERA. Meanwhile, Lee’s tERA was 2.65.

The more balls get through the hole, the more hits are allowed. The more hits are allowed, the more runs score. It’s a domino effect that ripples through all the rest of a player’s numbers.

So we’ve established that Lee pitched better than Hernandez, but Felix still did pretty well for himself, and he did it through 37.1 more innings than his former teammate. Doesn’t that count for something?

Of course it does. But Lee’s talent more than made up for the innings discrepancy.

According to FanGraphs’ Runs Above Replacement calculations, Hernandez saved 57.1 runs compared to a replacement-level pitcher. That’s great, until you see that Lee was worth 61.6.

In spite of his early-season injury, Lee was worth 7.1 wins—the best mark of any pitcher in baseball—while Hernandez was worth 6.2. That means his lack of innings shouldn’t be a major detriment to his case; if anything, the fact that Lee was able to achieve that kind of production in limited time makes his numbers even more impressive.

And yet, Lee finished a distant sixth in the Cy Young voting. He was named on only six of the 28 ballots, and the highest he was named was third.

So forget what they say in the press releases, or whose name they engrave on the trophy. Cliff Lee is the real AL Cy Young.

For more of Lewie’s work, visit WahooBlues.com.

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The free agency class of the 2011 season is not something worth getting too excited about. There are no real game-changing faces coming onto the market, and this means that I hope you enjoyed last season.

Without a talent-heavy market, except for Cliff Lee, of course, there is no reason to believe that the results of last season will be any different this year. The Yankees or the Rangers will most likely sign Lee, and Crawford is also looking to be wearing pinstripes with bulging pockets.

This means the top prospects are: Jayson Werth, most notably a doubles hitter who has only once topped 30 home runs; Victor Martinez, who will most likely re-sign with the Red Sox; and Paul Konerko, typically, a DH who will not be able to find work in the National League.

Unless one team goes out and signs a combination of talent including Garland, Berkman and maybe outbids the Yankees or Red Sox on the Lee or Crawford deal, we will see a repeat of last year’s playoffs. Thankfully, there is no salary cap to keep things a bit more level.

The Yankees have already stated that their current salary will be the same as last year, which makes me wonder what moves they plan on making to their current roster to make room for Crawford and Lee.

I assume they believe someone may be dumb enough to take Burnett, possibly a small-market NL team looking to rehash an old arm that had success there once before. The other play would be Granderson, a lot simpler to move and currently a road block for the Crawford deal.

This of course is in the assumption that they wouldn’t move Granderson around the outfield with Crawford comfortably in center field. Either way, a similar salary is hugely unlikely for a pitching staff that runs a three-man staff when successful.

If they do lose the Lee deal, they may make a play for Garland who will be looking for about $6 million this year. Not exactly a small contract.

Pavano will come off the books, which will free up about $1.5 million. Either way, the players who are rumored to be moving are from small teams, such as Greinke from the Royals, Gonzalez from the Padres and Carmona from the Indians, who have already provided the rest of the league with talent like Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Victor Martinez and Manny Ramirez.

One glaring truth that makes me believe my prediction will be correct was the signing of David Ortiz by the Red Sox. This will be the worst signing of the offseason, and we’re one month in.

They are going to pay him over $12 million, I assume because they believe they will stay with the $12 million devil they know rather than the $8 million they don’t. Ortiz jerseys will after all sell a hell of a lot better than a Konerko or Thome jersey.

This season, smaller teams will look to strengthen their farm leagues while squeezing out the rest of the revenue from their remaining big names. I hope Royal fans didn’t go nuts on those Greinke jerseys, but don’t worry, there might be a Pavano run in your future.

All this truly means is that barring injury, the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Rangers and Twins will all be fighting it out once again for their respective seedings in the AL, while the Cardinals, Phillies, Braves and pitching-reliant Giants will dominate the NL.

Although it was nice to have a different World Series champ almost every year it seems lately, things are about to go full circle again from a legit pool of about seven teams. I wouldn’t go to Vegas to place a bet on the Mariners or Astros just yet, but a continuation of your Yankee bet from last year sounds about right.

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Although some of the more committed fans won’t acknowledge it, the 2010 American League Cy Young Award is a two-horse race between CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez.

The New York Yankees’ and Seattle Mariners’ aces opened up a considerable window between themselves and the rest of the field as the season wore through its 162-game slate. Though the ratios and most of the stats tell a muddled story—with chapters of decent length devoted to Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, Francisco Liriano, David Price, Justin Verlander, Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill and Jon Lester— there is one key number that separates Carsten Charles and King Felix.

That would be the number in the innings-pitched category.

The Stallions Were Also Work Horses

Hernandez led the American League with 249.2 innings pitched while Sabathia came in second with 237.2. Those two were head-and-shoulders above the other elite starters in the Junior Circuit, who wallowed between 224 and 200 (give or take a few outs).

That’s not a huge lead, but considering how similar the totality of the other circumstances are, the difference becomes hugely significant.

Compare the two front-runners’ numbers, complete with ranking in the AL, along with a couple of the second tier of contenders:

Hernandez: 249.2 IP (1st), 2.27 ERA (1st), 1.06 WHIP (2nd), .212 BAA (1st), .585 OPSA (1st), 3.31 K/BB (7th), 3.04 FIP (4th), 3.26 xFIP (3rd), 6.2 WAR (3rd)

Sabathia: 237.2 IP (2nd), 3.18 ERA (T-6th), 1.19 WHIP (T-2nd), .239 BAA (12th), .656 OPSA (11th), 2.66 K/BB (14th), 3.54 FIP (10th), 3.78 xFIP (10th), 5.1 WAR (8th)

Weaver: 224.1 IP (T-3rd), 3.01 ERA (5th), 1.07 WHIP (3rd), .228 BAA (7th),  .622 OPSA (T-5th), 4.31 K/BB (2nd), 3.06 FIP (5th), 3.51 xFIP (5th), 5.9 WAR (5th)

Lee: 212.1 (10th), 3.18 ERA (T-6th), 1.00 WHIP (1st), .246 BAA (T-16th), .618 OPSA (3rd), 10.28 K/BB (1st), 2.58 FIP (1st), 3.23 xFIP (2nd), 7.1 WAR (1st)

Clearly both men were amongst the best in hurlers in baseball, regardless of which assortment of metrics you choose. Neither case is unassailable, but take one of the other studs and you can poke holes in their arguments as well.

Weaver was excellent across the board, but he was also behind Felix across the board (except for strikeout-to-walk ratio).

Lee, on the other hand, was statistically phenomenal, but he was a hired gun who switched allegiances midseason. Additionally, his innings-pitched total, earned run average and batting average against are considerable vulnerabilities.

The same exercise can be repeated for all the top dawgs.

The Rub

Of course, the obvious two elephants in the room are the record and the degree of difficulty.

CC blows King Felix away in both regards…on the surface.

That’s only half true—the keystone of the Bronx Bombers’ rotation obliterated his counterpart in Seattle as far as wins and losses were concerned. The big fella boasted a record of 21-7 while Hernandez went 13-12, but that’s more a function of the two teams involved.

New York finished with its customarily gaudy body of work, 95-67 to be exact.

Meanwhile, the Mariners limped to the second-worst record in Major League Baseball at 61-101. Only the tragically inept Pittsburgh Pirates were worse. Combine that with the current state of baseball—in which even the best and most durable starters average seven innings or less per start—and the win-loss record ceases to have much relevance.

But degree of difficulty isn’t quite what it seems.

Context Is Everything, But It’s Not Enough

Let’s deal with an unpopular truth—performing in New York City, especially in pinstripes, is more difficult for 99 percent of human beings, with nutters like David Wells being the possible exceptions.

ESPN riled everyone up against the axis of sporting on the East Coast, so that many deny that obvious truth. But it is the truth and demonstrably so: Javier Vazquez and Randy Johnson aren’t the only individuals who have wilted to some degree (or completely) under the unreasonable bright lights of the Big Apple.

Consequently, Sabathia’s otherwise rickety numbers get a rather large bump, as they do for tossing his days away in the AL East—unquestionably the hardest division in baseball. Even though he didn’t have to throw against the Yankees’ juggernaut. CC still faced the unpleasant task of staring down barrels aimed by the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays.

And he had to do a lot of that work in the New Yankee Stadium, not the most flattering place for pitchers.

So the Vallejo native’s season must be viewed through that jagged lens and only then can it be seen as potentially Felix Hernandez’ equal.

The Anti-Rub

Potentially.

But not actually.

Take arguably the top six 2010 AL offenses—the Yanks, Red Sox, Rays, Jays, Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins. Here’s how each Cy Young candidate fared against the biggest boppers:

Hernandez

BOS—7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K

MIN—15 IP, 4 ER, 12 H, 2 BB, 13 K

NYY—26 IP, 1 ER, 16 H, 8 BB, 31 K

TB—DID NOT FACE 

TEX—40 IP, 19 ER, 39 H, 12 BB, 31 K

TOR—8 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 5 K

TOTAL—96.1 IP, 26 ER, 73 H, 27 BB, 89 K

Sabathia

BOS—25 IP, 11 ER, 20 H, 8 BB, 17 K

MIN—DID NOT FACE 

NYY—DID NOT FACE 

TAM—34.2 IP, 13 ER, 29 H, 14 BB, 29 K

TEX—6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 9 K

TOR—8.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K

TOTAL—74 IP, 26 ER, 55 H, 24 BB, 63 K

When the curtain gets pulled back, you can see it was Felix Hernandez who actually saw more of the premiere offenses in baseball. What’s more, he outperformed CC Sabathia against those offenses.

Conclusion

When you look at the landscape of professional pitching this season, it’s clear that the second “Year of the Pitcher” extended to both leagues.

The Junior Circuit, like the National League, had aces come out of the woodwork and twirl unhittable frame after unhittable frame. There were at least 10 extraordinary seasons, but there is only one AL Cy Young Award, and it’s reserved for the absolute best.

Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke showed in 2009 that wins and losses are on the brink of obsolescence, but they weren’t up against a rep from the Evil Empire with his black-robed media cabal in tow. So it remains to be seen whether the glint of 21 wins in New York City will be enough to distract the voters.

Hopefully not.

Because, in 2010, the best was Felix Hernandez.

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Cliff Lee, the ace who recently led the Texas Rangers to the World Series, is once again a free agent and the biggest dog on the block is looking to get him.  The Yankees are after Lee because of his success and his ability to lead teams to great runs in the playoffs.

By adding Lee to their roster, they will gain a great asset and have one of the best lineups in baseball from a pitching standpoint. 

Having a one-two punch of Lee and Sabathia would mean great things for the Yankees and, once again, allow them to become World Series Champions. 

If the Yankees know what is right for them, they will pursue Lee with a vengeance, or else he could end up somewhere they would have to face him, such as Boston.

If the Yankees are able to land Lee and sign him to a multiyear deal, it will be a great moment for their franchise and would almost guarantee a trip to the World Series.  Sometimes money can’t buy a World Series, but in this case it can. 

Having Lee and Sabathia as the first two guys on your rotation would be devastating to any team in baseball and cause everyone—who is not a Yankees fan—to cringe.

Lee has had great numbers over his career, with a record of 102-61 and an ERA of 3.85.

If Lee agrees to go to the Yankees, it would be a win-win situation for him. His wallet would get fatter, and his chances of winning a ring would greatly increase.

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While baseball won’t have a free agent summit quite like the NBA did this past offseason, there is still one hefty prize still on the market.  Most teams won’t have pockets deep enough to contend for the big fish in this year’s free agent class, Cliff Lee.

Aside from Lee, the next best player (arguably) looking for a big payday is left fielder, Carl Crawford.

Where Will Crawford End Up?

Every team in baseball could use a guy like Carl Crawford.  For his career he is batting .296 and just recorded his best slugging percentage in a season.  His worth extends well beyond the plate, however, as he won the 2010 Gold Glove (and the Silver Slugger).

While everybody could use a guy like Crawford, very few teams can actually afford him.  All the usual suspects, the Yankees and the Red Sox could look to acquire him.  Additionally, the Angels, Tigers, Rangers and really the Nationals might also look to make noise to acquire him.

By all accounts, the Angels appear to be the front runner.  They have signaled their willingness to spend money this offseason and need to re-tool to keep pace with division foes.  The Tigers have a lot of money coming off their books and might look to make a play but the Angels have the added bonus of having Crawford’s friend, Tori Hunter on the roster. 

Ultimately, while the Red Sox may pursue Crawford, early reports indicate that Jayson Werth might be the favored option. I think Crawford will end up with the Angels.

The Cliff Lee Summit

Cliff Lee is easily the best pitcher on the market right now.  As with Carl Crawford, very few teams have the cash available to sign a guy like Lee. 

The Rangers, Yankees, Nationals, Phillies, Red Sox and Cubs have all indicated some level of interest, but the early front runners are the Rangers and Yankees.

The Rangers front office recently met with Lee in Arkansas but have not made an offer.  Reportedly, this meeting focused less on compensation but on quality of life.  The Rangers know they can’t outbid the Yankees and are hoping to sell Arlington’s proximity to Lee’s Arkansas home.

The Yankees have stated that pitching is their top priority in the offseason.  Lee would certainly solidify their rotation.  CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee played together in Cleveland and are reportedly good friends.  Whether that has any impact on Lee’s decision remains to be seen. 

Ultimately, however, Lee will demand a contract like Sabathia’s seven-year, $161 million contract.  I think in all likelihood, the Yankees will win the bidding war and end up with Lee on their roster next year.

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In this year’s rather modest free agent market, two names stick out; Carl Crawford of the Rays, and Cliff Lee of the Rangers. Lee in particular is the gem of the starting pitcher class, a one-time Cy Young winner, and a key piece of two straight World Series appearances.

Only three years ago, Lee was a hot and cold pitcher, who had some great years, but also had bad years. Since then, he has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the game, complete with multiple complete games and very few walks. Likewise, it took Roy Halladay a few years to get going, but now he’s perhaps the best pitcher in the league.

Cliff Lee’s contract is expected to be very expensive for either the Yankees or the Rangers over the next few years. Is it justified giving Lee perhaps 20 million a year, given how long it took him to get going, or given his struggles in Texas? Absolutely. Here’s why:

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Three weeks ago, Bleacher Report’s Featured Columnists began to unveil the results of our end-of-season wards poll. We’ve looked at Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, Comeback Players of the Year, Relief Men of the Year, Rookies of the Year, and Managers of the year.

Now, in our last week, we get to the good part: Cy Youngs and MVPs.

Today, as the BBWAA announces its choices for Rookies of the Year (too bad we already beat them to it!), we turn our attention to the American League Cy Young race.

As always the top five vote-getters are featured here, with commentary from the writers who chose them. The full list of results is at the end.

So read on, see how we did, and be sure to tell us what we got wrong!

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It’s finally time for free agency in Major League baseball. Fans are excited to see what major players their teams may land this year. And players are excited to see how large their contracts will be.

I have attempted to summon my inner Nostradamus and make predictions about where the Top 50 free agents will be playing next season.

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According to Fox Sports’ South West Division, Brian Cashman has spoken to the media saying the New York Yankees have interest in the Rangers’ southpaw pitcher, but they are not “desperate.” Cliff Lee is the most talented free agent pitcher on the market this Winter and the New York Yankees are always the most aggressive on the free-agent fronts. 

The Yankees have the money and interest to sign Cliff Lee. The cards just have to fall right and Lee accept an offer. 

A lot has been made about the disrespect received by Cliff Lee’s wife at a postseason game at Yankee Stadium. Brian Cashman made a trip out to Cliff Lee’s home to meet with the lefty’s agent, the pitcher himself and his wife. 

The direct quote from Fox Sports’ conversation with Cashman has him saying: “I don’t feel like we are in a desperate situation here. I think we have a lot of quality players on this team that won 95 games and fell two games short of a World Series…That’s when you have to be willing to roll with the punches and have Plan Bs, Cs, Ds and Fs up there.”

The Yankees believe themselves to be the front-runners in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes due to their money and possible contract length. They could be underestimating Nolan Ryan and the Texas Rangers’ front-office. The Angels are also in the game for a pitcher and Lee looks attractive. 

It’s pretty clear that the Yankees are not alone and will have some big competition for Cliff Lee and at some point they may have to change their stance from not desperate to absolutely necessary to sign. The Yankees are on the clock to make a move. 

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