Kuzul

Flukes—it’s a funny word to say, sounding more like a cereal than a sports reference, but it has a much deeper impact on sports than Wheaties.

There has been a lot of talk about the Texas Rangers world series run last year being a fluke; not even Cliff Lee could take the Rangers seriously when he signed with the Philadelphia Phillies.

It’s not hard to believe—after all there is reason to be skeptical.

With only three previous AL West division titles, they were always seen as the ugly stepchild by a dominant Anaheim Angels squad, a Billy Beane Oakland A’s team and even the Seattle Mariners have had some great years thrown in there.

This is the old AL West.

This year’s division is almost a complete turnaround from last year’s; that’s why it’s imperative C.J. Wilson of the Texas Rangers has to step up his game and dominate nearly every outing if the Rangers want to content for a second division title in as many years.

Can he do it? Yes.

Many people want to attribute Cliff Lee to the spectacular season the Rangers had. While he did help the Rangers in the playoffs, the real crutch the Rangers leaned on after the All Star Game was Wilson.

If you compare stats on the second half of the season, you’ll see that Wilson went 8-3 compared to Lee’s 4-5, he posted an ERA of 3.36 to Lee’s 3.79 and also gave up 19 less hits and 12 less runs.

Wilson is the type of ballplayer that doesn’t come around too often. We’ve seen so many tirades after an outing and even mid-inning, pitchers can crack under pressure.

Wilson is one of the most, if not the most, cool, calm and collected pitcher in baseball. If he gets in a jam, he can surely find a way out of it.

Wilson started the year last year with seven consecutive quality starts and no home runs in 87 2/3 IP. He gave up only 10 HR last year, none of which were hit by a left-handed batter and although he lead the league in walks at 93, he countered by inducing 21 double-plays, 12th highest in the AL. Wilson also ranked 14th with a 1.01 ground-out to fly-out ratio.

Wilson has the demeanor to dominate. He is too laid back to get stressed out over a bad call or a bad night on the bump. This is what will make him an “Ace.”

While Lee was on the team, the knowledge hungry Wilson picked his brain on a daily basis. He has learned so much in his one year of starting, that he can only get better.

There are only two things separating Lee from Wilson, only one of which he can control—Lee hits spots perfectly; Wilson hits spots, but there is a reason he walked 93 batters.

The other factor is Lee has been dominating for years now and umpires give him calls; he has earned a few more inches off the plate.

Once Wilson establishes himself and proves he can do this for a second year, and then a third year, he will get black and a little more.

That’s when Texas will have its ace.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Well, now that most of our NCAA brackets resemble the Libyan Air Force, we can move onto something that can provide some much needed optimism: fantasy baseball. What would the start of the season be without a rankings list?

There will be some familiar faces, but also some surprises. In the interest of brevity and fairness, the list will include just 20 players, (10 position, 10 pitchers) in rank order. That will probably only account for the first two rounds in most leagues, but this list will aim to help you avoid becoming message board fodder.

(Those dismayed by the absence of their favorite players on the, please contact your state legislator or Devan McClaine at devo1d@yahoo.com. We can talk/hug this thing out…) On to the list.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B St. Louis Cardinals

Shocker. I’m sure collective minds have just been blown. It isn’t a sexy pick, but how can you go wrong with the three-time N.L. MVP? Not only is he durable, but remarkably consistent. Take a look at Pujols’ stats over his career. He has had an OPS over 1.000 in all but two of his 10 major league seasons, (when he managed a woeful .955 and .997 in 2002 and 2007 respectively), has averaged 40 home runs and 123 RBI over that span.

If that isn’t enough, we’re talking about a guy who has never missed more than 20 games in a season, had 30 steals over the last two years, is in a contract year, and just turned 31 years old.

Again, sexy like Will Ferrell’s body, but easily the most reliable and consistent player available. The Machine is a bona fide number one pick. Don’t downplay the contract year. We have never seen Pujols in this situation and weird things (like 50 bombs and 140-plus RBIs) happen when people feel like they have something to prove. I wonder what Charlie Sheen would do in a contract year? Wait…

2. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B Boston Red Sox

Gonzalez moves from cavernous Petco to a park that is tailored for his opposite field power. Gonzalez relied on the likes of Will Venable and Scott Hairston to drive in and Yorvit Torrealba to protect him. In 2011, those names will be replaced by Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford, Kevin Youiklis in front of him and a revitalized David Ortiz protecting him. This should add up to a monstrous 2011 for Gonzalez.

In his five-year career, Gonzalez has never missed more than six games in a full season and, despite playing home games in a park that could host a NASCAR race, managed more than 100 HRs over his last three seasons. The 27-year-old’s patient approach (93 BBs, .393 OBP in 2010) is a perfect fit for the Sox and could spell trouble for A.L. pitching staffs. While he is an unproven commodity in his new league, moving from Petco to Fenway and the surrounding talent should pay dividends for fantasy owners.

3. Hanley Ramirez, SS Florida Marlins

Probably the most gifted of any player in the top 10, Ramirez can do anything on the field. Although he ran into questions about his attitude and desire last season, the 27-year-old has a 30-30 season and a batting title in his five year career.

Ramirez will be asked to carry the offensive load in Miami, the fish lost slugging double-play partner Dan Uggla to division rival Atlanta. It remains to be seen how much help phenom Mike Stanton will provide in the middle of the order. In any case, the only thing stopping Ramirez is himself. Despite the questions, Ramirez is good for an average above .300, 25-30 HRs, 100-plus RBIs, 100 runs and 25-30 steals. Nothing wrong with that.

4. Joey Votto, 1B Cincinnati Reds

Votto realized his full potential last year, capturing the NL MVP with a fantastic season. The Reds first baseman posted a .324 BA, 37 HRs, 113 RBIs, 1.024 OPS and a surprising 16 stolen bases at first base. While Votto plays in a hitter-friendly park, some may be surprised to find that the Canadian hit 52 points higher and slugged 19 of his 37 home runs on the road in 2010.

Votto still has protection in the lineup, and could receive more if talented Jay Bruce continues the pace he set after the break last year. If Votto can maintain the stolen bases and improve his already impressive patience at the plate, he could vault even higher on the list. The 27-year-old has entered his prime and should stay there for a while. Draft high and enjoy.

5. Carlos Gonzalez, OF Colorado Rockies

Gonzalez exploded last year, much like the head of every Oakland A’s fan after reviewing the trade that brought him to Colorado. Whether it is Coors Field or not, Gonzalez flirted with the N.L. Triple Crown last year with a .336 BA, .974 OPS, 34 HRs, and 113 RBI. Oh, he also swiped 26 bases, all while missing 17 games.

Some prospective owners may be scared off by Cargo’s road splits, which would be totally understandable, if he didn’t hit .380 with 26 HRs with a 1.161 OPS at Coors, where he still plays 81 games. Well, hopefully.

The biggest concern for Cargo may not be his record away from Coors, but his all-out style of play, which cost him some time last year. That said, Cargo’s massive upside still makes him a top 10 pick.

6. Miguel Cabrera, 1B Detroit Tigers

You drink, you drive, you lose…unless you can hit 30-plus bombs and drive in 100-plus runs perennially. Despite a Lohanian spring training, Cabrera still ranks in the top 10 because of his age (27, there seems to be a theme developing…) and consistency.

Let’s get real, it’s not like Cabrera’s drinking problem has hindered him in the past. Since breaking into the bigs in 2003 and helping the Marlins to a World Series, Cabrera has averaged 30 HRs, 109 RBIs and a .939 OPS. In 2010, Cabrera posted career highs in HRs (38), RBI (126), BBs (89), OBP (an A.L. leading .420) and OPS (1.042).

Cabrera is still the main cog in Detroit’s lineup, which now features Victor Martinez and uber-talented Austin Jackson in his second season.  If he continues to produce the way he did last year, Cabrera will have fantasy owners volunteering as designated drivers. It’s a win-win for everyone!

7. Troy Tulowitzki, SS Colorado Rockies

Tulo is a reluctant addition to the list. Like his teammate in Colorado, Tulo is a streaky hitter, injury prone, and has limitless potential. A notoriously slow starter, Tulowitzki caught fire in September, mashing 15 of his 27 HRs in the last month of the season. The downside? He also missed 40 games. However, it’s that September performance, and his second half splits in general that will keep the former Long Beach State star in the top 10 of most drafts.

If he can stay healthy, and that’s a big if, who knows what Tulo is capable of. In 2009, one of two seasons he has played at least 150 games, the 26-year-old shortstop had 32 HRs and 20 SBs with a .930 OPS. If anything, try to trade for him in the second half, he can be invaluable to a championship push. If you can stomach the streakiness, injury risk and propensity for mullets (for the kids), Tulo is the man for you.

8. Carl Crawford, OF Boston Red Sox

Crawford isn’t exactly a stranger to most fantasy owners, but his new perch at the top of the Sox lineup will undoubtedly raise his profile and fantasy value. Crawford has always been a speed demon and should continue that role in Boston’s stacked lineup.

In addition to stealing 45-plus bases in seven of his eight full major league seasons, Crawford has managed over 200 doubles, 100 triples and 100 HRs over that span. Expect Crawford’s power numbers to rise in Fenway. Couple the power surge with his stolen bases, and you have a premium player batting second in one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

As stated before, Crawford’s new teammates will help him anchor a spot on this list. No disrespect to Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton, but I will take the likes of Youkilis, Gonzalez and Big Papi behind the 29-year-old left fielder. Barring injury, you can sign Crawford up for a .300-plus BA, 120-plus runs, 45-50 SBs and an OPS in the .850 range. 

9. David Wright, 3B New York Mets

The face of the franchise adjusted nicely to the dimensions of Citi Field last year. After a punchless 2009, in which Wright hit 10 home runs in 144 games, the 29-year-old third baseman matched his age in dingers last year. Add to the fact that Wright is usually good for about 20-25 stolen bases as a corner infielder, and there is no reason this side of Jason Bay missing 57 games, to keep Wright out of the top 10.

If Wright can get any help his teammates, particularly the overpaid Bay, he should have similar numbers this year. If not, Wright may press like he did in 2009, when he posted career lows in slugging (.447) and OPS (.837). Jose Reyes’ return to health should also spell more RBI opportunities for Wright. In any event, the fact that Wright hit more home runs (12) at home last year than he did in all of 2009 is encouraging.

10. Ryan Braun, OF Milwaukee Brewers

Braun gets the nod over Rays‘ third baseman Evan Longoria and Yanks’ second baseman Robinson Cano because a) his track record, b) we already have a mullet aficionado on the list and, c) anytime you can take a swipe at the Yankees, you do it.

The Hebrew Hammer has had a DiMaggio-like beginning to his career. In four seasons, the 27-year-old (there it is again!) has hit 128 home runs with a .918 OPS. Braun will also be locked in because he knows friend and celebratory sparring partner Prince Fielder may be gone at the break.

There is an incentive for both to keep the train rolling as long as possible. Fielder is looking for a big contract before he eats his way out of baseball and Braun wants to keep the only help he has around until he can ditch Milwaukee in 2016. Isn’t it weird how 2016 still looks like it belongs in Blade Runner or a Terminator sequel? I digress…

Bottom line, Braun had an “off year” last year and still managed a .304 BA, 25 HRs, 14 SBs, 100-plus RBIs and an OPS of .866. Expect him to return to 2007-2009 form. His patience at the plate has steadily improved and he has cut down his strikeout rate in each of his four seasons.

1. Roy Halladay, SP Philadelphia Phillies

If you like pitchers that throw 220-plus innings with 200 Ks and an ERA below 3.00, then Doc is your Huckleberry. After a stellar 2010, in which Halladay captured the NL Cy Young and threw a perfect game, Halladay anchors the best rotation ever put on paper in 2011.

Although Halladay is entering his 14th season, he is only 33. Despite the wear and tear of nearly 2300 innings, Doc appeared to be getting stronger last season, posting an otherworldly 8-to1 K/BB ratio and a WHIP just above 1.0. Halladay had the best season of his career despite playing in Philly. His approach has remained the same; dominating hitters with pinpoint control of a nasty two-seam sinker, four-seamer, cutter and knuckle-curve.

It’s no secret that Halladay doesn’t beat himself (30 BBs in 33 starts), however, his win total could be hurt by the Phillies offense, which is past its prime and struggled last year. Needless to say, we know Doc will be among the league leaders in nearly every peripheral stat across the board.

2. Tim Lincecum, SP San Francisco Giants

After the first rough spell of his career last year, The Freak was lights out in October, helping the Giants to their first World Series title in 56 years. Although his velocity has dropped, Lincecum has learned how to pitch. When he entered the league in 2007, Lincecum relied heavily on a 95-plus mph fastball and power curve. Since, he has added a lethal changeup, (maybe the best out pitch in baseball), and an above average slider that vacillates between mimicking a slurve and a cutter.

He still throws the curve to keep hitters off balance, which he has done well, leading the league in strikeouts the last three seasons. The 26-year-old righty can throw four legitimate pitches in any count and get you out with all of them.

While some may point to Lincecum’s regression last year as a true indication of where his abilities lie. Let’s keep in mind he had half a year with rookie catcher Buster Posey, added a slider and showed up to spring training  this year with some added muscle.

Any pitcher listed at a generous 5’11” and 170 lbs. needs all the bulk he can get. Despite his diminutive stature, Tiny Tim has pitched over 210 innings in each of his three full seasons.

The league finally adjusted to the two-time N.L. Cy Young Award winner last year, and he adjusted right back. We know Lincecum is good for 230-plus Ks, but look for his ERA and WHIP to return to 2008-2009 form, when he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball.

3. Felix Hernandez, SP Seattle Mariners

While there was some debate (Read: MLB Network) about handing the 2010 AL Cy Young to a pitcher with 13 wins, there was no argument about the season King Felix had last year. The 24-year-old right hander led the league in ERA (2.24), innings pitched (249.2), while finishing second in WHIP (1.05) and one strikeout (232) from the American League lead.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Harold Reynolds, but if you have a season like Hernandez’ 2010 campaign, I don’t care if you go winless, you still deserve the Cy Young. I can actually feel myself digressing…gross.

Everyone knew that Hernandez had great stuff; an electric fastball in the 94-96 mph range, a plus curve, slider and changeup. What people forget is that The King is only 24. He could claim the number one spot on the list if “he learns how to win,” or if his team “learns” how to put up more than 0-2 runs in nearly half of his starts, as the sagging M’s did last year. Remember that this is a guy who went 19-5 in 2009, maybe he forgot how to win, Harold.

Hernandez is as durable as he is nasty, making at least 30 starts in each of his five complete campaigns. King Felix is hopeful that the M’s offense won’t be as bad as they were last year. One thing you can count on is the strength of Hernandez’ peripherals, along with the statistical ineptitude of a former Seattle second baseman.

4. Jon Lester, SP Boston Red Sox

While pitchers are as comfortable at Fenway as Newt Gingrich at a transgender cabaret, Lester managed an excellent 2010. The 6’4″ 240-pounder matched his career best in strikeouts (225), WHIP (1.20) and led the A.L. in K/9 (9.7). Lester also surrendered a paltry 14 bombs to opposing batters. We know his win total will be bolstered by a speedy outfield and solid infield who are equally capable at the plate, making him an early favorite for the 2011 Harol…A.L. Cy Young.

The 27-year-old southpaw has already overcome lymphoma, endearing him to The Nation forever, but he came into his own as a dominant frontline starter last year. The scary thing is he could get even better. Lester improved his K/9 ratio and WHIP in the past couple of seasons. The only concern may be Lester’s increased walk total (83) compared to the previous two seasons (130 combined). Lester works off his four-seam fastball and features a plus curve and cutter, all of which can be swing-and-miss type pitches.

5. Cliff Lee, SP Philadelphia Phillies

Lee was dominant in the 2010 postseason until his ERA ballooned to nearly seven in the Fall Classic. Prospective owners should not be scared off by the postseason performance. Keep in mind that Lee surrendered a total of 18 walks between Seattle and Texas last season. The strike throwing machine also led the A.L. in WHIP (1.00), BB/9 (0.8) and K/BB per 9 (10.28). The latter stat may be more indicative of Lee’s control than strikeout ability, but the 32-year-old lefty also set a career high with 185 stakeouts last year.

Lee joins Roy Halladay at the top of The Phils’ formidable rotation, but the concerns are the same for both: support from the Phillies position players, both at the plate and in the field. Lee attacks the strike zone with an array of six pitches, but works predominately off his two-seam fastball. He also has a filthy cutter, and mixes in a curve and changeup, a plethora that even El Guapo would appreciate.

6. Clayton Kershaw, SP Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw is coming off breakout season, in which the 23-year-old lefty posted career bests in innings pitched (204.1), strikeouts (212) and WHIP (1.17).  Kershaw’s walk total remained relatively high (81), but opposing batters only managed to hit .214, while he surrendered only 13 home runs.

The Claw will again seek to grab the spotlight in the pitching-heavy N.L. West and will do so with a repertoire that features a fastball in the mid-90s and a devastating 1-to-7 curve. Kershaw lived up to the hype last year and there is no reason he can’t build on it this year.

7. Josh Johnson, SP Florida Marlins

Johnson just looks like a pitcher. Last year, he acted like one. Johnson missed the last month of the season due to back problems, but finished with an N.L. best 2.30 ERA. Johnson also compiled 186 strikeouts, a 1.10 WHIP and allowed just seven home runs. The 6’7″ 250-pound horse has improved his ERA and WHIP each of the last four seasons.

The primary concern for the 27-year-old righty has always been health. Johnson has only made 30 starts twice (28 last year) in the last five seasons. However, it’s Johnson’s upside and overpowering four-seamer, (94.9 mph on average), improving slider and changeup make him worth the gamble. If you can bolster a staff with other reliable starters in later rounds, Johnson may be worth the reach.

8. C.C. Sabathia, SP New York Yankees

If Johnson presents an injury risk, then Heavy-C is anything but. Both are 6’7″ (with slightly different dimensions), but the similarities end there. The 30-year-old lefty has made at least 30 starts in nine of his ten seasons, his career-low is 28.

While C.C. may never recapture the strikeout form he had in 2008, when he had 251, he will log innings and give you around 200 punch outs every year. Sabathia can also help you in the Harold Reynolds Win Metric (the best around for judging the true performance of pitchers). Sabathia is backed up by a lineup that puts runs on the board, so 20-plus wins are never out of the question.

Sabathia tied his career-high in home runs allowed (20) last year, but that may be due more to Yankee Stadium and the A.L. East than a decline in stuff. C.C.’s durability and consistency make him worthy of a top spot on any fantasy staff.

9. Justin Verlander, SP Detroit Tigers

Although Verlander wasn’t as strong as he was in his previous season, 219 strikeouts and a 1.16 WHIP are nothing to sneeze at. Verlander is one of the game’s true power arms, throwing a four-seam fastball that can reach triple digits and averages 95 mph. The return to form erased all concerns of arm trouble when Verlander’s velocity dropped in 2008.

Despite the overwhelming fastball, Verlander has remained remarkably healthy, logging at least 30 starts in every one of his five complete seasons. Despite the dip in strikeouts, Verlander lowered his home run total and improved his WHIP over 2009, when he finished third in the A.L. Cy Young vote.

Verlander works primarily off the four-seamer, but can also come at hitters with a solid curveball and changeup. Verlander also added a slider in 2009.

10. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP Colorado Rockies

There is no denying that Jimenez’ second-half regression last year is a concern. But if you start the season 15-1, with a 2.20 ERA and, most importantly, a .252 BABIP, there is nowhere to go but down. Jimenez fell in love with his fastball in after the break, which is understandable, anything that reaches 100 mph and averages 96.1 is very likeable. You could easily be “more than friends” with such a fastball.

As a result, Jimenez actually upped his K/9 (8.0 to 9.6), but became more predictable in the process. The return to the league norm in BABIP didn’t help either. However, it’s that strikeout rate and velocity that kept the likes of David Price, Chris Carpenter and Roy Oswalt from this spot.

The truth is that Jimenez is probably somewhere in between his pre and post-break performances last year, and that’s fine. If he trusts his secondary stuff, he could resemble the guy we saw in the first half of 2010. Those secondary pitches include a splitter that falls off the table and a changeup that resembles most pitchers’ fastball. The guy has no-hit stuff, literally.  If he can mix his pitches better, Jimenez could easily rise on this list.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The countdown is on to Opening Day. Expectations have never been higher in the entire 121 year history of Philadelphia professional baseball. Behind four of the top pitchers in the game in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels and a lineup that features two former MVPs and perennial and potential All-Stars.

The Phightin’s have won four straight National League East titles. They have appeared in three straight National League Championship Series, (NLCS) winning two of them, had the best record in the entire Major Leagues last year at 97-65 and won the World Series in 2008.

The most anticipated season ever is set to begin, and Philadelphia finally has the team to beat. We are now (finally) the Yankees (WITHOUT selling our souls to the devil.)

Then why has the attitude in Philadelphia gone from excited to anxiety? Whether it is the injuries to Dominick Brown or Brad Lidge or the potential ineffectiveness of the lineup, Philly Nation’s confidence has grown into a legitimate concern.

Then there is Chase Utley, one of the most beloved Philadelphia athletes of all time. He has been battling patellar tendinitis, chondromalacia and bone inflammation in his right knee and he will begin the season on the DL. Many pundits believe that this is a smoke-screen and he will require surgery that may sideline him for the majority of the year.

Utley said on Monday, “Over the past few weeks I think we have made some progress for obviously the good and we’re going to stay on top of what we’ve been doing. So I’m optimistic at this point and we’ll continue to do what we’re doing and go from there.”

Utley said he has consulted with several doctors, and the opinions they have offered have varied. This is extremely good news for fans, as they want Utley to exhaust every possible option he has in the hope of their best player being able to be a part of what could be a historic season.

The best thing about all of this is that many of the doctors suggestions were in the best interest of Philadelphia and its fans.

Here is what the top doctors in America have suggested that Utley should do for his knee.

1. “Chase, I would recommend you have the leg amputated and play second base with a peg-leg, thus increasing your longevity and the likelihood of taking out middle-infielders on potential double play balls.”

2. “Chase, you should take some of Joe Blanton’s excess (you know) and insert it right into the knee cap to increase comfort.”

3. “Chase should borrow Carlos Ruiz’s knee-savers, because he can wear them in the field as well as at the plate. They will not only help him “save” his knees, but also may become a fashion trend in baseball.”

4. “Chase actually should play second base while sitting on a stool, as he has done in Spring Training.

5. “Chase, the Phillies should invest in a Tempurpedic mattress for you to lay on at second base during games started by Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt or Lee as they will continue to dominate as they always have. Leg elevation would be best as well.”  

The same doctor called back this morning and was reported as saying:

6. “Upon further review Chase, the mattress idea would work for Blanton as well. You should be as comfortable as possible watching balls sail over the fence.”

7. “Chase, the peg-leg idea is the way to go as it can double as a leg and a baseball bat.”

8. “Do whatever Jamie Moyer is doing.”

9. “Stop crying, Philadelphia loves warriors.”

10. “Retire and let Brian Dawkins play second base, as he has been tweeting daily about his desire  to return to Philly.”

There you have it folks, some of the best doctors in America when it comes to knees and their suggestions for how Utley’s injury should be handled.

Soon to come, Joe Blanton and two dozen donuts are rumored to be on the move to the Yankees for a danish to be named later.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Everybody has their list.

They get a ton of attention and for this group, unwarranted. They’re overrated.

Which stats are the best indicators of being overrated?

OPS? WAR? Should an eye test be taken?

Potential sometimes cannot be judged on stats.

Let’s take a look at the 10 most overrated players in baseball.

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Before the start of the season, I wanted to see which pitchers statistically had the best fastballs, curveballs, sliders, cutters, changeups and splitters of the 2010 season.

Here are a look at the top fastballs of the 2010 season. A few notes:

The Pitch Value data was created by Fangraphs.com. I will be using the statistic, wFA, which denotes the runs above average for a particular pitch—in this case a fastball.  

The “wFA” stat benefits starting pitchers and pitchers who throw a certain pitch more often. Because the more often you throw a pitch, the better the chances are of it being successful.

Sometimes, PITCH/FX does not sort pitches into the right category. For example, Brandon Morrow’s splitter was categorized as a fastball.

Both two and four-seam fastballs are lumped together.

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With Opening Day nearly a week away, the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff is still the top topic of preseason predictions. On paper, the Phils should easily pitch their way to the World Series, but so many things can happen over the course of the season that nothing is certain.

Roy Oswalt’s frightening experience on the hill on Wednesday proved that seasons can be altered in the swing of a bat.

Oswalt took a line drive to the back of the neck in the fourth inning of a Spring Training matchup with the Rays. Manny Ramirez‘s blast sent him to the dirt, but fortunately he only ended up with a nasty bruise and was able to walk off on his own without losing consciousness.

His X-rays were negative, but one thing is positive in Philadelphia, things could have been much worse for the most talked up rotation in the MLB.

Oswalt is lucky he didn’t end up with a serious injury. The Phils have yet to rule out a concussion, but Charlie Manuel expects him to make his next start. Nevertheless, Oswalt took a scary shot and it showed how vulnerable pitchers are on the mound.

Chances are the Phillies’ rotation will be the best around, but fans can only hope that freak accidents and injuries don’t send their stars to the DL.

Baseball may not seem as dangerous as football or hockey, but promising players can be sidelined quicker than a fastball passes over the plate. The ability to stay healthy and consistent over 162 games will determine if the Phillies will live up to their great expectations.

Such factors can cause the downfall of credible preseason predictions. Analysts can only guess. Sports are simply unpredictable. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This is the final installment if a seven-part series predicting the records of each team, and now the playoffs.  The teams that make the postseason in this installment are based off of previous ones.

Now that the 2011 season is closer than ever, and Opening Day is only eight days away, we writers are giving our preseason predictions, and these are mine.  Through careful analysis of records, schedules, transactions, and more I have compiled my postseason picks.

Now, it’s time to break them down.

Matchups in the postseason are incredible, and they always provide fireworks.  The ability to play five or seven games against your opponent is what makes baseball great.  The best teams usually come out on top, but sometimes we have surprises, like the 2008 Phillies or 2010 Giants.

These next slides are my predictions of each postseason series, and breakdowns of each series.  Sure, the postseason is over seven months away, but it’s never too early.

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Well, it looks like it may be a reality: Luis Castillo is reported close to signing a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. Quite frankly, I am not sure how I feel about this. One would assume that there are some pros and some cons so let’s take a look at some of them

One major pro is that he is most likely going to be very, very cheap. He is already guaranteed $6M from the NY Mets, so the Phillies would be able to sign him for his qualifying league minimum, approximately $485,000. Cheap labor of this caliber is always a good thing and of course it makes it a very low risk/high reward proposition for the Phillies. Added Bonus: how great would it be to watch Castillo play against the Mets while they are paying him? Does it get any better than that?

Another pro would be that Castillo was, at one point, a very good hitter. His last full uninjured season was as recent as 2009 and he managed a very respectable .302 avg, .387 OBP and 77 runs scored. He has a very low strike out rate which would help what is currently a very K-prone lineup. His ability to put the ball in play could come in handy on a team like the Phillies who put a lot of runners on base and often only need a ground ball out or sacrifice fly to score a run. Also, he can still run, swiping 23 bags in 2009. Whether or not he can regain that form remains to be seen, but for $485K, don’t you almost have to take that shot?

He was hurt most of 2010 so any numbers from that year may be skewed but I assure you they are not good. Also, you have to take into account he was a Met and quite frankly it really seems as though most of those guys, especially the veterans, just flat out gave up.  

Let’s throw in a con: Wilson Valdez won’t get the much-deserved shot he has earned at second base. Valdez has been on fire this spring playing nearly every day and hitting over .400. He is playing several positions defensively and has been really impressive at all of them. He has even played some outfield this spring and done a very fine job at it. I personally would be slightly upset if Valdez didn’t at least get the opportunity at the job. The only thing that scares me about Valdez is his propensity to hit into the double play.

Another con is no one really knows his clubhouse attitude. The Phillies are known to have one of the best clubhouses in all of baseball; just ask Cliff Lee. They have taken tremendous care in achieving this chemistry. When Pat Gillick took over the team in 2005 he made it a point of contention to trade away great talents that were disruptive clubhouse members and it’s a philosophy that appears to have really worked. There is a rumor that the Phillies grade clubhouse attitude in their scouting reports and very seriously consider that grade when deciding on a player. There are many who believe, myself among them, that this is the reason the Philles are as successful as they are, despite injuries, despite slumps, despite poor outings–the Phillies always endure.

How about a pro: he hits from both sides of the plate. He could offer a right-handed bat in what is considered a very heavily weighted left handed lineup. Similar to Shane Victorino, he hits about equally from both sides; with a career .298 as a right-handed batter and .294 as a left-handed batter. Given the fact that most of the teams in the NL East have adjusted their bullpens to deal with the Phillies left-handed attack, this could prove extremely valuable.

All in all I would have to say it’s a good move for the Phillies however it is totally dependent on what they will pay him. As Ruben Amaro has recently been quoted as saying the team is completely tapped out financially, my guess would be the only way he becomes a Phillie is at the bare minimum price. I would further assume that Castillo would take that. He is, after all, still earning his $6M from the Mets this season and he would be playing for a contender. So if it happens: Good for you Luis Castillo, and welcome to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Let me know what you think. Is signing Luis Castillo a good move? Do you have another pro or con? Leave a comment and let me know.

UPDATE:  It’s a done deal.  Minor league contract which minimizes financial damage if t doesn’t  work out.  Good move by Ruben Amaro as he has managed to put the team in a win/win situation.

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For the last few years, the Philadelphia Phillies have made their name as an offense-heavy team that occasionally pitched well.

That’s not to say they had no good pitching—they just didn’t have very much of it. Cole Hamels carried the team in both 2007 and 2008, and Cliff Lee was lights-out down the stretch in 2009, but beyond that, Philadelphia’s rotation didn’t scare anyone.

Even in 2010, manager Charlie Manuel sent Roy Halladay to the mound every fifth day (not “every fifth game”) because he didn’t trust anyone else to take the ball.

But by the end of last season, something had changed. The Phillies were the near-unanimous favorites to win the National League pennant not for their bats, but for their arms.

While assertions that the Phillies’ tremendous trio would be unbeatable in a playoff series were quickly proven false, this was a clear shift in the composition of their roster.

Philadelphia still had the offensive prowess to win in a slugfest, but opposing teams were more worried about scoring enough runs than allowing too many.

Now with Lee back in the fold, Philadelphia’s 2011 rotation is undoubtedly the best in the game, and may end up among the greatest of all time. In the minds of baseball’s talking heads, the Phillies have already wrapped up the NL pennant.

But it’s too soon to crown them the champions. The Phillies have a problem that could end up costing them a playoff berth: the lineup.

The Phillies managed just 772 runs in 2010, down from 820 in 2009 and 890 in 2007. Part of that can be blamed on the league-wide drop in offense last season, but the team’s 99 wRC+ shows Philadelphia’s bats to have been slightly below average.

Surprised? Check the stat sheets. Jimmy Rollins battled injuries and continued his descent into mediocrity, tying or setting career lows in nearly every offensive category as his OPS dropped to .694.

Thirty-eight-year-old Raul Ibanez slumped through his worst offensive season in a decade, finishing with an OPS below .800 for the first time since 2005 and missing the 20-homer mark he had cleared the previous five years.

Even Shane Victorino’s game took a turn for the worse; he hit just .259 and posted the worst full-season OPS (.756) of his career.

Even the mighty Ryan Howard looks like he may be past his prime. After averaging 50 homers and 143 RBI from 2006-09 (never dropping below 45 and 136, respectively), he managed just 31 homers and plated only 108 runs last season. His .859 OPS was the worst he’s ever posted.

Throw in his abysmal defense and his premium offensive position, and he finished the 2010 campaign with 2.0 WAR. That’s right, folks—Ryan Howard was a league-average player.

The outlook is even worse for 2011. The Phillies already lost their second-best position player, Jayson Werth, to free agency, and his replacement, young right fielder Domonic Brown, is out for at least a month with a broken wrist.

But now, Philadelphia faces an even bigger problem. Face of the franchise Chase Utley’s knee problems are turning out to be worse than we’d thought.

They are understandably hesitant to let Utley undergo surgery for his tendinitis, but with the non-surgical treatments failing this far, things don’t look good for the five-time All-Star.

Utley is almost assuredly going to miss Opening Day, and while the front office doesn’t expect him to miss the whole season, there is no timetable for his return. If he ends up needing surgery, it could take him months to recover fully.

The salient question is: are they still the favorites without their keystone man? Thanks to some sabermetric projection systems, we can get a good idea of the answer.

The easiest system to use for measuring players’ projected impacts on their teams is FanGraphs.com’s FAN Projections.

Here, the Phillies hold a five-game lead in the NL East over the second-place Florida Marlins; a six-win drop would put them in a four-way tie for the Wild Card.

The fans project 7.9 WAR per 162 games for Utley and -0.2 WAR/162 for his chief replacement last year, Wilson Valdez. In other words, for every 20 games Utley misses, the Phillies lose a win.

By that standard, if Utley misses a month or two, the Phillies are still the favorites in the NL East, but it’ll be closer than they’d like.

If he’s back at 100 percent capacity after the All-Star Break, the Phillies will be in the thick of it, but a playoff berth is far from guaranteed.

And if he misses the whole season or comes back before he’s fully recovered and plays poorly, the Phillies will be lucky to win a Wild Card spot.

What of the more advanced projection systems? CAIRO’s latest projections have the Phillies 6.5 games ahead of the second-place Braves, while PECOTA has them ahead by four.

Using a 5-4-3 weighting system for the last three years, we get a projection of 7.9 WAR/162 games for Utley; making the generous assumption that whoever replaces him will be worth 1.0 WAR/162, the Phillies here lose a little more than a win each month Utley is out.

By CAIRO’s standards, the Phillies still win the division as long Utley comes back by September, Meanwhile, PECOTA says the Phillies will fall to second unless he’s back by the trade deadline.

And that’s assuming the rotation stays healthy, Rollins and Howard don’t slip any further, and Utley is feeling comfortable upon his return—far from a given with this kind of problem.

There’s no way to know how Philadelphia will fare in 2011 until we know more about how serious Utley’s injury is, how it can be fixed, and how long he’ll be out.

Barring a complete disaster elsewhere on the roster, the Phillies should be serious contenders, but in spite of their amazing starting pitching, a less threatening offense and the loss of their best player mean they are far from clear favorites for the pennant.

For more of Lewie’s work, visit WahooBlues.com. Follow him on Twitter @LewsOnFirst or @WahooBlues.

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We’re well into spring training, and some story lines with the Philadelphia Phillies have emerged. 

Ben Francisco has been stellar and is ready to replace Jayson Werth in right.  We may even see Francisco in Werth’s 5-hole slot by season’s end.

Domonic Brown broke his hand at the wrong time.  He’s been in free fall in camp, and he needed as much spring training as possible.  He needs to regain his confidence.

Chase Utley’s knee has raised some concerns.

Other than that, everything’s just dandy.

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