Kuzul

Sunblock, infield dust and…scorpions? Pitchers and catchers have barely unpacked, and we’ve already got the best and the worst of camp openings.

1. Best Use of Weights

It ain’t the heavyweight division it once was, but with Yankees ace CC Sabathia making it a point to add weight for 2015 and early photos of Boston’s Pablo Sandoval already sending him into a defensive crouch, it does make you wonder whether the AL East will need to hold weekly weigh-ins.

Sabathia told reporters in Tampa that he thinks he came in a little too light last spring, and before you start your calorie counting, allow, for just a pinstriped moment, that Sabathia may be onto something.

The late Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett didn’t exactly have a model figure, nor did old Detroit starter Mickey Lolich, who threw 300-plus innings over four consecutive seasons from 1971-74.

No telling whether Sabathia will follow in Lolich‘s footsteps and open a doughnut shop after he retires (no joke, Lolich did), but the big lefty did pitch at a Cy Young level for many years without limitations, weight or otherwise.

The 6’7″ Sabathia says he’s planning to pitch between 295 and 305 pounds this season after checking into spring camp last year at 275. He thinks that his significant weight loss before the 2013 season resulted in a so-so summer: 14-13, 4.78 ERA.

So far this spring, he’s checked out fine following right knee surgery last season. The knee will bear watching, of course, because a heavier Sabathia means more wear and tear on the legs.

As for Sandoval, a tweeted picture raised his ire during his first few hours with the Red Sox. It was unflattering, with his belly sticking out.

Panda’s response was to quickly challenge the tweeting reporter to work out with him. His best response, though, is to ignore it. As late Baltimore manager Earl Weaver, a Hall of Famer, once said about Boog Powell (and recounted here in this excellent Dan Shaughnessy column in The Boston Globe), “He don’t look fat to me when he’s running around the bases after hitting those homers.”

Look, not all sluggers fit the mold. Sometimes, in the cases of Jell-O, they’ll eat the mold. So what? As long as they can hit.

Why do you think they call the weighted rings placed on bats in the on-deck circle doughnuts anyway?

(And see, we got through all that without any reference to Alex Rodriguez being dead weight in Yankees camp).

2. Best Updated Reference to U.S. Steel

No-nonsense Yankees manager Joe Girardi quickly brushed off the expected spring circus around A-Rod, basically saying that it’s always a circus around the Yankees. Or, as former reliever Sparky Lyle famously called it, it’s a Bronx Zoo.

“One of the things I learned in 1996 when I came here is that this is a different place,” Girardi told reporters. “It’s different when you put on a New York Yankee uniform.

“You’re on one of the most recognizable companies in the world.”

So if rooting for the Yankees, as Red Smith, Jimmy Cannon, Bill Veeck and whomever else said, once was “like rooting for U.S. Steel,” what’s the modern equivalent?

We’ll go with this, while taking requests, for now: Rooting for the Yankees is like rooting for Apple.

3. Best Dodge

Whew, what a media session for Cole Hamels on Saturday at Bright House Field in Clearwater, Florida. The Phillies ace did everything but go all Bill Clinton and say that his desire to stay in Philadelphia or to be traded “depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.”

He says he wants to win, and he told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that “I know it’s not going to happen here.”

He’s right.

Except, now Hamels is in the uncomfortable situation of basically preparing for the season in a clubhouse surrounded by teammates who know Hamels doesn’t think they can win. And when he addressed the media, several Phillies officials, including club president David Montgomery, were in the room. So what is an ace lefty still owed $90 million to do?

“At this given moment, I’m a Phillie,” Hamels said carefully.

For how long, it’s difficult to say. The Red Sox have the prospects to deal for him, and who knows, Monday’s signing of Yoan Moncada may send them even more aggressively toward the Phillies.

One team that was interested over the winter, San Diego, is out. When the Padres signed free agent James Shields, sources tell Bleacher Report that effectively ended their pursuit of Hamels, a San Diego native.

4. Best Quote

The Dodgers acquired Yasmani Grandal from the Padres in the Matt Kemp deal over the winter, and largely because of his stick, Grandal is expected to eat into A.J. Ellis’ playing time behind the plate.

Ellis’ take?

“You know, in all honesty, I don’t need a title of starting catcher or a title of backup catcher,” Ellis told reporters. “I want to have the title of World Series champion catcher.”

5. Best Sight in Arizona

Easy: San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy back in uniform Sunday following a procedure to have two stents placed in his heart.

These spring training physical exams not only are wake-up calls, sometimes, for the players and managers themselves, but they also can be lessons to all of us. You see how a visit to the doctor might have saved Bochy‘s life. It is a good example to all of us that we should regularly see the doctor.

So, the man who employs one of the most delightful expressions in the game, “buzzard’s luck,” when the breaks don’t go the Giants’ way, starts 2015 with some excellent good fortune.

And his sense of humor wasn’t harmed, either. He promises, “I’ve got another 200,000 miles on me,” and he described his condition as not being “a widow-maker.”

6. Best Sight in Florida

Matt Harvey back in a New York Mets uniform and actually, you know, pitching from a mound.

He left us far too soon, for Tommy John surgery, not long after starting for the National League in the 2013 All-Star Game at Citi Field. He went 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA in 26 starts in ’13, then the elbow blew.

Between him and the Marlins’ Jose Fernandez blowing out last May, the game lost two sensational young starting pitchers. Now, at least, Harvey should be back. The Mets are talking about him pitching between 180 and 200 innings this summer, including beginning in their Opening Day rotation.

What a treat that would be for all of us. But especially for Mets fans, whose team is very close to blowing past the Yankees as the best club in town.

 7. Worst Development

Josh Hamilton could be out a month longer than expected following surgery to repair his right shoulder, and now it’s fair to wonder whether the five-year, $125 million deal the Angels bestowed on him will wind up being one of the worst of all time.

He’s 33, and in his final season in Texas (2012), he hit more home runs (43) than he has in his first two seasons combined in Anaheim (31). Battling the sore shoulder, he looked badly overmatched last September and in October, as the Angels were getting swept out of the playoffs by the Royals. (He was 0-for-13 with two strikeouts, and most of his swings were painful to watch.)

As of now, he likely won’t be back until at least May. And because he’s rehabbing at home in Texas, the Angels don’t even have a locker for him this spring.

8. Worst Spring Visitors

Did you hear the one about the scorpions in the White Sox camp?

It’s reminiscent of the time an alligator decided to visit the pool at the Detroit Tigers’ team hotel in Lakeland, Florida, back in the 1970s—or the time Torii Hunter “kissed” one there last March.

Not sure which is worse, but I may take the alligator before the scorpions.

9. Best Use of Time

The new Pace of Game rules, which I wrote about Friday, are sensible and, best of all, unobtrusive. Batters should be required to stay in the box during an at-bat. Pitchers and hitters absolutely, positively should be ready to go the moment the between-innings commercials are finished. If we’ve already waited more than two minutes for the commercial break, why wait another 30 to 60 seconds while players aren’t ready?

Maybe these changes will not shorten games significantly, but I’m not sure anybody is looking for that. Just tighten things up and remove some of the dead time. Play ball.

9(a). Best Backstage Visitor

At a concert earlier this month in Tampa, whom did Bob Seger see backstage but…Hall of Famer Al Kaline.

Kaline has a winter place in Lakeland, about 40 minutes east of Tampa, and the two Michiganders obviously share a connection. Seger told the crowd in Tampa how happy he was to see the Tigers’ Hall of Famer.

This reminded me of one of my favorite baseball stories involving Seger.

In the late 1960s, Ted Simmons was looking to get home to his family for a weekend with his then-girlfriend from the University of Michigan.

This being the ’60s, they did what lots of other folks did: hitchhiked.

Simmons was a first-round pick—10th overall—by the Cardinals in 1967, and he was working toward his degree during the offseasons. As Simmons told me two springs ago, it was November or December, it was cold, and snow flurries were making conditions even worse.

As Ted and Maryanne (now his wife) hitchhiked out of Ann Arbor alongside U.S. 23 North, a van pulled over to pick them up.

After Ted helped Maryanne into the front seat, he hopped into the back.

“I get in, all the seats had been removed, and there was a full drum set in the back,” Simmons told me.

As they drove away, Simmons thanked the driver profusely for picking them up.

“Where ya goin‘?” the driver asked.

“Detroit,” Simmons answered.

The van was headed toward Interstate 96, where Ted and Maryanne wanted to go, but the driver explained that he was heading west toward Lansing instead of east toward Detroit.

“He said, ‘I’ll drop you, and you can pick up another ride from there,'” Simmons said.

Simmons noted the drum set and asked whether the driver was a musician.

“What’s your name?” Simmons asked.

“Bob Seger,” came the response.

“I remember it like it was bigger than life,” Simmons told me. “He was just starting out back then.”

A local legend in the ’60s, Seger was known for playing hundreds of nights a year throughout Michigan and the Midwest. Then came 1976, when the release of Live Bullet in April and Night Moves in October catapulted him to superstardom.

As Simmons recalled, Seger had played the famous Canterbury House in Ann Arbor that evening and had another date scheduled in Lansing.

“He wasn’t huge yet,” Simmons said. “Then he got huge. It was just super for anybody to stop.

“He could have been a serial killer.”

Instead, he soon would be singing “Night Moves,” “Against the Wind” and many other beloved hits.

Simmons? Today, he’s a senior advisor to Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik. And when his playing days were finished, Simmons, a physical education and speech major, went back and earned his degree from Michigan in 1996.

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl. 

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Baseball season is finally underway, and Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee has already run out of answers for the media.

Following the pitchers and catchers’ first workout of the season, Lee used a Magic 8 Ball to field questions from reporters. 

Teammate Cole Hamels recently voiced his displeasure with the way the Phillies are headed into the 2015 season, so maybe Lee used the Magic 8 Ball to distract from the sticky situation.

[CSN Philly, h/t Next Impulse Sports]

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“Pitchers and catchers report” may be the most magical words in sports, but there are still some trade rumors to work out before MLB spring training officially gets underway. 

The Philadelphia Phillies are prominent in many of those, but their division rivals, the New York Mets, are as well. Read on for the latest speculation surrounding these National League East teams before spring training begins.

Jonathan Papelbon

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports passed along an unfortunate update for the Phillies regarding their efforts to trade Jonathan Papelbon:

To illustrate the difficulty that the Phillies are experiencing in trying to trade Jonathan Papelbon, consider a recent turn in their discussions with the Brewers.

The Phillies only were willing to pay a significant part of Papelbon’s contract if the Brewers parted with a top prospect, according to major-league sources.

The Brewers, unwilling to make such an exchange, instead proposed sending reliever Jonathan Broxton to the Phillies as a way to balance the finances.

Given the nature of that update, it really shouldn’t come as much surprise that Rosenthal also noted any talks between the Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers are currently dormant.

Papelbon may be 34 years old, but he turned in an excellent 2014 campaign for Philadelphia. He finished with an impressive 2.04 ERA and 39 saves in 66.1 innings and could certainly help a team on the fringe of contention, be it the Brewers or someone else. However, he is due to earn $13 million this season.

The Brewers were third in the MLB last season in quality starts but finished a disappointing 17th in team ERA. That is not exactly a testament to greatness from the bullpen, which is why they are likely looking to upgrade the back end with a potential trade or free-agent signing. 

It just doesn’t look like that trade will be for Papelbon.

Cole Hamels

Rosenthal also had an update on Cole Hamels in a separate piece and noted the San Diego Padres made an offer for the left-hander before ultimately signing James Shields:

The Phillies, though, are adamant about getting one blue-chip prospect in any trade for Hamels, sources say. It is not known precisely how they view the Padres’ top three prospects — righty Matt Wisler, catcher Austin Hedges and outfielder Hunter Renfroe. But a source last month said that in the Phillies’ view, the Padres might “not have enough.”

Rosenthal pointed out that the Phillies would prefer to trade Hamels to the Boston Red Sox in an effort to get a package back that includes either Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart. Still, Boston hasn’t made that desired offer, and it looks like Philadelphia may have to start the season with Hamels if it doesn’t lower its demands.

Rosenthal touches on this, but keeping Hamels as potential trade bait would put the Phillies in direct competition with other teams looking to unload pitchers at the trade deadline. Whether that is the Cincinnati Reds and Johnny Cueto or someone else remains to be seen, but the Phillies would likely get less back in return if there are other pitchers out there for cheaper.

Still, Hamels finished last season with a 2.46 ERA and is only 31 years old. He is a true ace and could instantly bolster a team’s World Series chances, especially if it was a talented squad such as the Red Sox or Padres that has already made some noise this offseason. 

Interestingly, Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. commented on the Hamels rumors, via Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com: “Eight teams have kicked the tires…If there was an offer commensurate to what we believe is [Hamels’] value we would strongly consider it.” 

Apparently, that offer is yet to come.

New York Mets Pitchers 

Marc Carig of Newsday noted that the New York Mets likely won’t be trading any of their pitchers:

Carig specifically mentions Dillon Gee, which isn’t that surprising since he is 28 years old and there are plenty of young pitchers trying to make the team this season. Among those pitching prospects are Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Rafael Montero, but cracking the rotation could be difficult for any of the three.

Montero at least has major league experience, which could help his cause in terms of making the roster (at least as a bullpen option).

The bottom line is the Mets have plenty of depth in the pitching department but an offense that was 28th in batting average and 21st in runs scored in 2014. It would make sense on paper if they traded a pitcher or two for more offense, but it appears that won’t be in the works before the season. 

New York better hope for better offense this time around if that strategy is going to pay off.

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The offseason has been a blur, one blockbuster move after another changing the landscape as we knew it just hours before.

Brash and fearless front offices shuttling out superstars, bringing in others and changing the complexion of divisions has been the norm since before Thanksgiving. In what has become one of the most active and maybe surprising fall-winter seasons in recent memory, the balance of power has shifted in every division in both leagues over the course of three-and-a-half months.

All pitchers and catchers should be reported to their spring training camps by the end of next week—barring any odd happenings, of course—and optimism will run rampant at all of them. The reality of any club’s situation never really hits until around late June, when party lines are clearly drawn and the best teams start to distinguish themselves.

In the world of prognostication and prediction, we don’t have the luxury of waiting for things to play out. In this world, we play the games on paper because we want answers, and we need them now.

So, with about all of the roster shuffling complete and spring training a few sleeps away, let’s get to predicting what things will look like come Oct. 4.

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The Boston Red Sox have had an eventful offseason, but without a true ace, they can’t expect to seriously contend for a World Series.

After losing out on the Jon Lester sweepstakes, the Red Sox currently plan to start the year with Clay Buchholz atop the rotation. Buchholz has had flashes of dominance, but he’s lacked consistency. In his eight-year career, Buchholz has never started over 30 games.

Along with Buchholz, the Red Sox enter 2015 with Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly filling out the rest of the rotation.

General manager Ben Cherington seems content with this solid rotation. In an interview with The Boston Globe‘s Peter Abraham, Cherington said, “We think we have enough pitching talent to put together a good pitching staff, one that can help us contend in the division.”

James Shields still remains on the market, and according to USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale (h/t CSNWashington‘s Chase Hughes), Cole Hamels could be available. If the Red Sox aspire for more than just a division title, they must add one of those two players.

In all three of their championships, the Red Sox have relied on at least one ace. In 2004, they had Curt Schilling and Pedro Martinez. Josh Beckett led the 2007 staff, winning 20 games and posting a 3.27 ERA. And in 2013, Jon Lester had a 3.75 ERA, including a 1.56 ERA in the postseason.

While Boston’s pitching is lacking, they have an embarrassment of riches on offense.

With the additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, the Red Sox have a potent lineup. But they still have some important decisions to make, especially in the outfield.

MLB.com’s Ian Browne predicts that Cherington will have to make a trade or two by the end of spring training to clear up the outfield.

Hanley Ramirez will start in left, and Rusney Castillo looks to be the everyday center fielder. Right field will be much more competitive, with Mookie Betts and Shane Victorino vying for the job. Victorino battled through a back injury most of last year, while Mookie Betts proved he belongs in the big leagues, hitting .291 through 52 games.

Regardless of who earns the spot, the Red Sox will end up with a great fourth outfielder. Boston also has Daniel Nava and Allen Craig, who can both play the outfield and first base. Craig struggled in his time in Boston, and after a slow start, Nava had a strong second half of the season.

There’s no need for the Red Sox to have both Nava and Craig, and Craig seems like the probable trade candidate since the Marlins are reportedly interested in him, according to The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo (h/t NBC Sports’ Drew Silva).

The Red Sox are built to bounce back from their disappointing season last year, but to return to championship form, they still have a few more moves to make. Whether that’s before Opening Day or around the trade deadline, don’t expect the Red Sox to be playing deep into October if they refuse to address the rotation. 

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The Philadelphia Phillies continue to shop two prominent pitchers whose names will festoon the MLB rumor mill until a resolution is reached.

It’s no secret that the 2008 World Series champions are trending southward. Following a string of five consecutive National League East titles, the Phillies have not finished above .500 in the last three years, stamping 73 wins in each of the past two seasons.

Many projection models anticipate an even worse 2015 from the elderly club. Baseball Prospectus‘ PECOTA and FanGraphs each forecast Philadelphia landing MLB’s worst record. There’s no relief in sight either, as ESPN’s Keith Law gave its farm system a No. 25 overall ranking. 

Given the bleak situation, general manger Ruben Amaro Jr. must dangle the few valuable assets remaining in his arsenal. That includes ace Cole Hamels, the team’s best player, and Jonathan Papelbon, a highly regarded closer with one year left on his contract.

These two pitchers have frequented trade discussions for months, but nothing has materialized. Let’s see if the latest chatter stands any chance at changing that stagnancy.  

Cole Hamels

Other than Papelbon, Chase Utley and Cliff Lee—who made just 13 starts last season due to an ankle injury—the Phillies are running out of currency to cash out for young talent. Perhaps some fans take that as reasoning to retain the 31-year-old righty, but that would mean wasting the remnants of Hamels’ peak years on a bottom-dwelling club.

He would certainly heat up the hot stove after notching a career-low 2.46 ERA last season. As stable as they come, he has amassed over 200 innings through each of the past five seasons.

A popular talking point during the winter meetings, possible deals have largely subsided in recent weeks. Yet Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal welcomed back an old speculated suitor, even if it remains a long shot.

Pitching is rarely a problem for the San Diego Padres, who registered a 3.27 team ERA last season. They can plug a decent hurler in there and watch Petco Park morph him into an ace.

So what would an actual ace in Hamels accomplish inside the pitcher-friendly park? Last season, he twirled an 1.82 ERA outside Citizens Bank Park, but his career home/road splits don’t reflect a significant difference.

He has dominated in eight career starts at Petco, albeit against weak Padres lineups. 

San Diego has a solid rotation nucleus in Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy, but there are no certainties after that. Odrisamer Despaigne held his own but posted a 5.31 ERA away from Petco. A.J. Preller rolled the dice on Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow in hopes of receiving healthy innings from one or the other. Don’t hold your breath. 

Young arms Robbie Erlin and Matt Wisler are also waiting their turn for a permanent promotion. San Diego is hardly bereft of options, but one can see why it would consider an upgrade after making several high-impact splashes on offense.

Chances are Preller already used up too much capital to repaint his batting order, but don’t say never on a guy who landed three big-name outfielders in one offseason.

Jonathan Papelbon

On paper, trading Papelbon is a slam dunk. Last-place teams have no need for 34-year-old relief pitchers set to earn $13 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A team on the edge of contention, however, will derive more use from his services.

Two suitors have emerged in the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers. While negotiations are believed to have hit a wall, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki assured that the Phillies “are still talking” to both squads:

The Blue Jays don’t have last year’s closer as a fallback option. Casey Janssen already moved on, agreeing to a one-year contract with the Washington Nationals. In order to finally climb the American League East ladder, Toronto will need to bolster a bullpen that touted a 4.09 team ERA in 2014.

Papelbon does not come without his flaws. Once a lights-out stopper, his strikeouts per nine innings declined to a modest 8.55 last season. A steady dip in velocity, via FanGraphs, explains the decreasing punchouts for a man with a 10.34 career K/9 rate.

Yet he still managed a 2.04 ERA last year, and that tally has only veered over 3.00 once during 10 MLB seasons. Regression concerns will make some clubs a tad reticent, but Papelbon’s salary is a larger concern.

It wouldn’t be a major problem with a deal guaranteed to end after 2015. He also, however, carries a $13 million 2016 vesting option that will activate if he finishes 48 games this season. Last year, he completed 52.

If the Phillies can’t find a taker, expect an uncomfortable scenario where they monitor his appearances in hopes of avoiding that mark. If he could help Milwaukee or Toronto play October baseball, the looming option becomes less of a problem.

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Sometimes, baseball’s rumor mill spins furiously, spitting out juicy tidbits with the speed of an Aroldis Chapman fastball and leaving us with more potential trade scenarios to dissect and speculate about than we know what to do with.

Other times, the rumor mill resembles David Ortiz rounding the bases, taking a slower, plodding approach that forces us to dig deep in finding worthwhile trade scenarios to banter about. For a weekly series such as this, it’s those other times that prove to be the most difficult.

As luck would have it, this week finds us in the midst of a lull.

That doesn’t mean that there’s nothing to talk about and debate, however, and we present to you five trade scenarios that potentially make sense for all parties involved. Keep in mind that these deals are pure speculation—there’s no indication that any of them have actually been discussed.

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Of the attractive trade chips in the Philadelphia Phillies‘ collection, Cole Hamels is the Action Comics No. 1 of the bunch. He’s the prized possession, and the one available for the highest price. 

Or so they think. But in reality, his trade value is…well, complicated.

Granted, we don’t actually know what Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is demanding for Hamels. But some hints have appeared on the rumor mill, with two reports in particular standing out.

In early November, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reported that the Phillies want “at least three top prospects” for their ace left-hander. More recently, Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News wrote that the team had discussed a deal with the San Diego Padres centered on 2013 American League Rookie of the Year Wil Myers.

Again, these are just rumors. But they do fit with the team’s new rebuilding direction, as well as with recent remarks from manager Ryne Sandberg.

“There’s no way that Ruben’s going to just give away a player,” he said at the winter meetings, via Alex Speier of WEEI.com. “I mean, we’d have to be wowed to give up a guy like Cole Hamels, which would be a wow that would help us with the process and go in the direction that we want to go.”

Getting three top prospects for Hamels? Yeah, that would qualify as a “wow” trade. So would acquiring a guy with Myers’ talent and controllability. (He’s a free agent after 2019.) 

But regarding what Hamels is actually worth, we have to start with the elephant in the room: his contract.

The six-year, $144 million extension Hamels signed in 2012 has four years remaining on it at $23.5 million per year, plus a $6 million buyout on a $20 million option for 2019. As such, he’s owed between $100 million over four years and $114 million over five years.

For the Phillies, the ideal scenario involves moving all of that money and getting the young pieces they desire. But because young players are probably more valuable now than ever before, the Phillies’ best hope of pulling that off lies in convincing buyers that Hamels’ remaining contract is a bargain.

To this end, there’s an obvious target Amaro can point at to sell teams on the idea: Jon Lester.

A couple weeks ago, Lester signed with the Chicago Cubs for six years and $155 million. Amaro can point to that as the going rate for ace left-handers on Lester’s level.

And you know who matches that description as well as anyone? Yup. Hamels.

That Hamels and Lester were born barely a week apart 30 years ago (Lester turns 31 on January 7) helps the comparison, but it goes further. Courtesy of Baseball–Reference.com and FanGraphs, check out how Hamels and Lester stack up throughout their careers and in more recent history:

If you don’t know ERA+, that’s a version of ERA that’s adjusted for ballparks and leagues and placed on a scale of 100. Anything over 100 is above average.

So, in a nutshell: Hamels has been a slightly better pitcher throughout his career and was more or less on par with Lester in 2014. Plain old ERA says he was exactly on par, in fact, as the two southpaws pitched to 2.46 ERAs in 2014.

If you’re Amaro, this is an excuse to point out that Hamels at $23-25 million per year over the next four or five years doesn’t look so bad compared to Lester at around $26 million over the next six years. The money on Hamels’ contract represents a slight discount, with the years representing less overall risk.

However, there’s a problem. While Lester’s contract may be there as an excuse for Amaro to push for what he wants, it’s not hard for prospective buyers to push back. 

Maybe you’ve already spotted one issue with the idea of Hamels’ remaining contract being a discount next to Lester’s deal. But even if it is a discount, it’s not a very big one.

Another way to frame the conversation would be to look at the surplus value Hamels should offer over what he’s due to be paid. FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan did that recently, concluding that he projects to offer $23.5 million at most in surplus value. More realistically, his surplus value is in the $10-20 million range.

That’s not a lot of surplus value. Certainly not enough for three top prospects. Maybe not enough for just Myers either. Remember, these are guys who, hypothetically, are going to be really good and really cheap for several years.

So that’s one way we can knock the Hamels-Lester comparison down a peg. We can take things even further by gazing into what the future may hold.

If the Phillies do trade Hamels, his future will more than likely contain different competition. That wouldn’t necessarily be a good thing.

We once again turn to Sullivan, who looped Hamels in with Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields and found he’s faced by far the weakest hitting opposition since 2012:

On average, since 2012, Cole Hamels has faced a bunch of Everth Cabreras. James Shields has faced a bunch of Eric Hosmers. There’s little difference between the AL guys, but Hamels is far removed. You have to assume this has worked to Hamels’ benefit.

Knowing this, the money remaining on Hamels’ contract suddenly looks like less of a bargain.

Beyond that, there’s also the matter of how Hamels is going to age. That’s where Lester once again works as a helpful comparison point, though not in a flattering way.

Though Hamels has pitched more career innings than Lester, more innings mean more mileage. Also, Baseball Prospectus’ injury records can show that Hamels has more of a history of arm and shoulder trouble than Lester. Pitchers are largely known for being injury risks, but Hamels appears to be more of one than Lester.

As for Hamels’ stuff, the above MLB Network segment trumpets his recent velocity increase in recent years as a good sign going forward. But it’s really as much of a curse as it is a blessing.

We have plenty of history that says velocity becomes harder to muster as pitchers age. Hamels’ new-found velocity should follow the trend eventually. And though he’ll still have his all-world changeup, solid curveball and cutter, he’ll have to alter his pitching style to accommodate his lost velocity.

Lester has already done that.

Whereas Hamels enjoyed a superb season with career-best velocity in 2014, Lester enjoyed his own superb season with his worst velocity since 2007. Grantland’s Shane Ryan did a fine job of breaking down how Lester did that with sudden mastery of location, movement and sequencing. 

All these things are bearing in my mind if I’m a GM eyeing Hamels. While the best-case scenario for the Phillies involves selling him as something of a Lester clone, it’s too easy to debunk the idea.

Now, one thing that could lead prospective buyers to match the Phillies’ lofty demands is leverage.

Amaro seems to think he has a lot of that. He told Bob Nightengale of USA Today in November that he feels “no pressure” and “no necessity” to move Hamels, and he’s right to a certain extent. 

Hamels is under contract for several more years, and the Phillies have more than enough funds to afford his contract. If they can’t get what they want for him this winter, they can tell teams to try again over the summer or next winter.

And yet there is risk involved with the idea of holding on to Hamels.

Beyond the usual risk of his value being hurt by an injury and/or a poor performance in 2015, there’s the specter of how many options there are going to be outside of Hamels next winter. Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, David Price, Doug Fister and assorted others are set to be free agents. 

In the meantime, clubs in need of an ace this winter have the option of spending money on Scherzer or Shields rather than giving the Phillies money and talent for Hamels. To boot, the list of teams with the money and young talent required to be in the mix for Hamels is pretty short.

To make a long story short: the idea of Hamels being worth a big haul of young talent on top of his remaining contract is a stretch, and the Phillies lack the leverage to make teams meet their price. If they mean to move his entire contract and get talent back, one top prospect is a more realistic price than three top prospects or an established youngster like Myers.

Mind you, this doesn’t mean the Phillies flat-out can’t get what they want for Hamels this winter.

Because the Phillies do indeed have a lot of money, they can make like the Los Angeles Dodgers did with Matt Kemp and eat a chunk of money to enhance their return for Hamels. If they were to cover, say, $30-40 million of his remaining contract, it’s not hard to imagine them getting what they want.

We’ll see if the Phillies are willing to do that. If they are, we’ll be talking about a fair deal all around.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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Sports fans may have their attention firmly turned toward football and basketball around the holidays, but pitchers and catchers report to spring training in less than two months. That means MLB teams are running out of time to make any corresponding roster moves. 

Naturally, there are rumors circulating around the league regarding the futures of some players who could potentially switch teams before late February.

Here is a look at some of those rumors.

Cole Hamels and the San Diego Padres

Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego passed along the latest on any potential interest between the San Diego Padres and Cole Hamels:

The Padres are believed to have at least some interest in Phillies ace Cole Hamels, a left-hander and native San Diegan who could put their rotation over the top. …

According to a Philadelphia Daily News report, the Padres have had discussions about Hamels and could use Myers as trade bait.

Indications from sources within the organization, however, are that the Padres intend on playing all three of their newest outfielders, including Myers.

Wil Myers won the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year award and was a major part of an outfield overhaul for the Padres that also included Matt Kemp and Justin Upton. Considering how much noise came with those three additions, it would be somewhat surprising if San Diego moved one before the season started.

Manager Bud Black discussed his new outfield and where everyone potentially fits, via Lin: “Upton, I think, is maybe best in left (field). We’re going to continue to look at Wil Myers in center field as a possibility. These are things that we’ll talk about as the winter continues and we get into spring.”

Myers is certainly an intriguing piece at 24 years old with plenty of upside, but Hamels is a proven ace. What’s more, Myers regressed during the 2014 season from his impressive 2013 campaign, with his batting average dropping 71 points, his home runs falling from 13 to six, his on-base plus slugging falling from .832 to .614 and his wins above replacement going from two to minus-0.9, per ESPN.com.

Perhaps it was nothing more than a sophomore slump for someone in his second season, but there is at least some reason for concern there.

Still, the Padres would have to give up more than just Myers to land Hamels, so it is understandable that a team that has already lost many of its young pieces (including Joe Ross and Trea Turner in the effort to land Myers) this offseason would be hesitant. 

San Diego certainly hopes Myers reverts back to his 2013 form.

Dan Haren 

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports passed along an update on Dan Haren:

Haren has spent the majority of his career out West with the Oakland Athletics, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers, so it is no wonder, then, that he would like to head back there, especially when family ties are considered.

For now, though, the 34-year-old righty appears set to start the season with the Miami Marlins, barring that potential trade he hopes unfolds. He turned in his best season since 2011 ERA-wise last year for the Dodgers when he finished with a 4.02 ERA, 13-11 record and 1.18 WHIP, and Miami would be more than pleased with a repeat performance.

Haren’s best days may be behind him, but he is still a valuable innings-eater who has pitched at least 169 innings the past 10 seasons, including seven years of more than 200 innings. 

Whether it is with the Marlins or a team out West, Haren should be a reliable middle-of-the-rotation option this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Looking for Closer 

Heyman noted that the busy Toronto Blue Jays may not be done this offseason:

It is interesting that Toronto will apparently look to trade first considering there are still some options available via free agency. Rafael Soriano, Francisco Rodriguez, John Axford and Brian Wilson are all familiar names who could be available for significantly less money than they would have been in past years.

Sometimes buy-low options are the best bets, especially if they bounce back with something to prove after receiving a contract smaller than in their prime.

However, there are some options on the trade market as well. Perhaps Toronto can pry someone like Jonathan Papelbon or Tyler Clippard away from the Philadelphia Phillies or the Washington Nationals before pitchers and catchers report, although anytime there is a trade it means giving something up in return. 

For the win-now Blue Jays that have already acquired Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson and Michael Saunders, that probably won’t be an issue.

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The beauty of the MLB offseason is that you never know if the biggest move of the winter has been made.

Each day brings the potential for a move that’s bigger than the moves from days prior. Such is the case now. While the trades of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Jimmy Rollins, Wil Myers and Jeff Samardzija could be categorized as the top deals so far, the potential for even bigger things is on the horizon.

Cole Hamels and Troy Tulowitzki have found themselves the focus of trade rumors for longer than just the past few months, but this offseason has featured the most serious talks for both players.

Where will each superstar play in 2015? They’re members of the Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies, respectively, for now, but that could change in an instant. Read below to find out the most recent buzz.

Cole Hamels

The San Diego Padres are in the midst of a roster overhaul, having acquired Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Derek Norris in the past few weeks. They might not be done dealing.

Hamels, a native San Diegan, can be had for the right price. Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News reported Sunday that the Padres were interested in making a deal: “The Padres have had discussions about trading for San Diego native Cole Hamels with new outfielder Wil Myers as potential bait, according to a baseball source.”

Trading Myers would be bold. Even though he wasn’t all that productive last season, the 24-year-old outfielder has untapped potential and could become one of the best right-handed hitters in the division as soon as next season.

A conflicting report from Dennis Lin of U-T San Diego suggests the Padres recognize that and aren’t willing to trade him: “Indications from sources within the organization, however, are that the Padres intend on playing all three of their newest outfielders, including Myers. The early plan is for the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year to start in center field.”

Trading Myers in a deal for Hamels isn’t a far-fetched idea, though.

For one, Hamels would approve a trade to the Padres, reports USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale:

The Padres have a wealth of capable outfielders. Myers, Upton and Kemp are slated to start, but Cameron Maybin, Seth Smith, Will Venable, Abraham Almonte, Carlos Quentin and Rymer Liriano are also worthy of playing time. Obviously, it is impossible for a team to play nine outfielders.

Philly should be interested in bringing in outfield help. Marlon Byrd could be dealt, but he and Ben Revere are the only capable players they have to roam Citizens Bank Park. Myers and someone such as Liriano could pique the interest of general manager Ruben Amaro.

Hamels has been successful in San Diego, owning a 1.78 ERA and a 5-1 record in eight starts at PetCo Park. But that’s not the only reason he’s worth acquiring.

The Padres have a budding young rotation, headlined by Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross. Ian Kennedy, Odrisamer Despaigne and Robbie Erlin round out the group. The latter two pitchers could easily be replaced by Hamels, giving San Diego one of the top staffs in the National League.

It makes a ton of sense for these two clubs to strike a deal. Padres general manager A.J. Preller isn’t messing around in his first offseason with the team, and a move for Hamels would represent the icing on the cake.

Troy Tulowitzki

Tulowitzki is the top shortstop in baseball when healthy, though that’s the operative word here. He’s rehabbing as you read this, but he could also be scouring the rumor mill for his name.

He told MLB.com’s Thomas Harding that he’s aware of the recent trade rumors: “I’m keeping up but I’m not worrying about it. I’m just doing my rehab and want to get back on the field. That’s my main focus.”

Those rumors involve the New York Mets, who are in desperate need of someone not named Ruben Tejada or Wilmer Flores to play shortstop.

CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman has the latest: “The Mets maintain interest in Rockies star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, but it’s clear there’s a major gap to bridge in negotiations between the teams, with differences in ideas of player compensation and financial considerations, as well.”

It’s easy to see how player compensation could be a potential snag in talks. The Rockies likely want multiple top prospects for Tulo. Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero and other young players are must-haves for Colorado.

Of course, the Mets probably recognize the shortstop’s extensive injury history. Newsday‘s David Lennon opines that his history with the disabled list should convince the Mets to stay away:

The reality, however, suggests the short-term benefit of Tulowitzki would not outweigh the lasting fallout from the huge price for an aging, injury-prone star at a high-impact position.

Tulowitzki is rehabbing from hip surgery, which is something that’s expected for your grandma but alarming when it happens to a 30-year-old shortstop. He played only 91 games last season and has averaged 88 since 2011, when he made it all the way to 143.

He was phenomenal in 91 games last season, though, slashing .340/.432/.603 with 21 home runs and 52 RBI. The thought of plugging that into the lineup is certainly intriguing.

It might be safer for the Mets to avoid dealing for Tulowitzki, but it’d be hard to justify not bringing him in if the Mets can get him at their price. They are not far from contention. The only thing holding them back is their offense.

Pairing Tulowitzki with Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson in the middle of the lineup could be what finally brings the Amazins back to the postseason.

A deal doesn’t appear likely at this point, but no one should be surprised if it happens.

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