Kuzul

Two weeks after being defeated by a small rebel group called the San Francisco Giants, the sabermetrics empire struck back on Thursday….

“It is a dark time for Sabermetricians.
Although some of their theories have been destroyed,
Imperial pitchers and hitters have driven the
Rebel forces and beat writers from their mother’s basement
and pursued them across
the galaxy.

“Evading the dreaded WHIP, tERA, FIP and WAR,
a group of freedom
fighters led by Bruce Bochy
has established a new secret
way of winning on the remote summer ice world
of San Francisco.

“The evil lord Darth Felix Hernandez,
obsessed with taking over the galaxy,
has dispatched thousands of remote stats into
the far reaches of space….”

Darth Hernandez and the rest of the sabermetric community dispatched all the remote stats they could think of and got some revenge on Thursday, as the Seattle Mariners’ ace won the American League Cy Young Award.

Hernandez received 21 out of 28 first-place votes to become the second Mariner to win the award. Randy Johnson won the award in 1995. Tampa Bay Rays LHP David Price finished second in the voting, and New York Yankees LHP CC Sabathia finished third.

The big story of this voting was whether or not the voters would look at Hernandez’s 13 wins and dismiss his other statistics. As we know, wins aren’t the best way to judge a pitcher’s success, and now that thinking has trickled down to the voters.

Hernandez led the AL in ERA (2.27), H/9 (7.0), Batting Avg. Against (.212) and WAR for Pitchers (6.0). He also finished second in WHIP (1.06) and second in K’s (232). At the age of 24, King Felix has clearly established himself as one of the dominant pitchers in all of baseball.

Hernandez’s 13 wins represent the lowest total for a Cy Young winner in a non-strike-shortened season. Tim Lincecum won the NL Cy Young last year with 15 wins.

My preseason American League Cy Young pick: Jon Lester

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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The results are in!

Felix Hernandez has won the American League Cy Young Award despite winning just 13 games in the 2010 season.

This is an exciting development regardless of what you think of advanced metrics because when you get down to it, this is not about a triumph of advanced metrics over baseball traditionalists.

It’s a triumph of common sense over the absurdity of slavish tendencies toward traditional points of view. It’s the death of wins as a meaningful statistic when judging the value of a pitcher.

You don’t need FIP, WAR or any other advanced metric to realize Felix Hernandez was the best pitcher in baseball. ERA, WHIP, innings pitched and strikeouts told you that. Just like you didn’t need advanced metrics to tell you Zack Greinke was the best pitcher in the American League in 2009 despite only winning 16 games.

Not only did Hernandez win, but he won in a rout. Hernandez received 21 of 28 first place votes.

The “Wins” statistic has dominated the landscape of major league baseball for the better part of the 20th century. Now we know the 21st century is going to feature a new set of rules—a new understanding of what valuable is.

Well, maybe not just yet. The MVP award will still probably be “the best player on a winning team.” That’s OK. One step at a time.

Hernandez beat out both David Price and CC Sabathia. They had fine seasons in their own right playing for the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees respectively. Their teams’ performances helped them post win totals that dwarfed Hernandez’.

But Hernandez was better than both pitchers, even with just 13 wins, which is now the lowest total of wins for a Cy Young winner in a non-interrupted season.

Somewhere Bert Blyleven is cursing himself for not being younger and pitching in a more enlightened era, although hopefully this is the precursor of finally getting one of the best pitchers of that generation into the Hall of Fame.

If Hernandez can win the Cy Young with 13 wins, then maybe Blyleven can make the Hall of Fame with 287 wins.

While this isn’t a victory for advanced metrics (many sabermetricians would tell you Cliff Lee deserved the Cy Young), it is a statement on how the one-time subculture of baseball analysis is slowly but surely getting its footing in the mainstream.

That’s a good thing as far as it means we are starting to base our decisions more on reasonable statistics than wins. Even if you wanted to argue for Price or Sabathia, there were better arguments to be made than pointing at their win totals.

This is not a call to start worshiping the odd acronyms of advanced metrics. It’s a call to accept the fact that wins have always and will always be a team stat and not an accurate gauge of a pitcher’s value.

While we’re at it, let’s recognize that the save is a completely arbitrary stat that tells us absolutely nothing. How else did Wes Littleton get a save in a 30-3 rout?

So congratulations to Felix Hernandez—and congratulations to everybody who has written an article on B/R over the past few months declaring Hernandez’ superiority to CC Sabathia this season (there have been many).

Common sense has won out for the second year in a row. Much credit is due to the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, an organization that many are critical of for their inane voting.

However, don’t get too excited. Derek Jeter still won a Gold Glove. It’s just a reminder that we have a long way to go before all baseball awards are actually given to those who deserve them.

Finally, rest in peace, “wins.” You had a good run, but I can’t say I’m sad to see your reign of silly injustice come to an end.

Next up is saves. You hear that, “saves?” We’re coming for you next.

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My Preseason National League Cy Young Pick: Roy Halladay

2010 National League Cy Young winner: Roy Halladay

At the All Star break, Colorado Rockies’ ace Ubaldo Jimenez was the odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young award. He was 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and even had a no-hitter to his credit.

Halladay, who had a lower ERA than Jimenez (2.19), seemed to be lying in the background. And just like Zenyatta, Halladay made a furious run in the second half to win his second Cy Young.

He received all 32 first-place votes as he joined Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez and Gaylord Perry as the only pitchers to win a Cy Young award in both leagues.

Halladay is really in a league by himself. I always believed Greg Maddux was the best pure pitcher I had ever seen, but what Halladay has been able to do over the last couple years is making me re-think my belief.

My second-guessing comes because Halladay is doing something these days that almost no other pitcher is doing on a consistent basis—throwing complete games. In an era where the complete game is almost nonexistent, Halladay does it without breaking a sweat.

Over the past three years, Halladay has 27 complete games. During that span, no other pitcher has over 20. “Doc” has complete mastery of his craft.

Halladay lead the National League in wins (21), IP (250.2), Complete Games (nine), Shutouts (4), BB/9 (1.1), K’s/BB (7.3), and WAR (6.6). He also finished second in K’s (219) and WHIP (1.04).

Halladay’s two shining moments during the season were his perfect game against the Florida Marlins on May 29th and, of course, his no-hitter in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds. That was a game for the ages.

It’s very rare that an accomplishment in sports captivates non-sports fans. I manage 12 females during my day job (no, I don’t work at a strip club) and trust me when I tell you, sports conversation is not on the agenda during the day.

However, I did have two of the members of my team come up to me the next day and ask me if I watched the Halladay game last night—it was that kind of sports moment.

Congratulations to Halladay on winning the Cy Young. I would say he is the odds on favorite to win the award next year, as well.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @theghostofmlg

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By Mark C. Rinaldi

There are five American League pitchers who are truly deserving of the Cy Young Award. The award is given to the best pitcher, but personally I feel there should be some worth placed on the players value to the team.

For example, Zack Greinke is a great pitcher, but the Royals could have finished in last place without him. Here are my predictions to how the voting will shape out.

But before we get to the top five, lets take a look at the outsiders, in alphabetical order.

Cliff Lee—Lee was less than spectacular with Seattle, and he took his time getting assimilated to the heat in Texas. But the Rangers would have been watching the playoffs from their La-Z-Boys without him.

Carl Pavano—He is the best pitcher on a team that easily won its division. He won 17 games and was among the league leaders in innings pitched, but his success still reminds me of his time in pinstripes.

Rafael Soriano—Soriano was the closer for the best team during the AL regular season. He had more saves then anyone else in the AL, and down the stretch, when he came in the game for the Rays, it was as good as over.

Justin Verlander—Verlander had another impressive season worthy of Cy Young consideration. But overall, his numbers weren’t good enough to get any votes, especially since he played for third-place team. 

Jered Weaver—Weaver pitched well for a team that was below .500, so even though he ate up innings and had an ERA of three, the team’s performance was not good enough to say he had any significant value on any playoff race.

And now, the Big Five:

5. Clay Buchholz—Buchholz finished second in the AL in ERA, and he was among the league leaders in wins. He missed some starts during the season, and never truly established himself as a big-game pitcher.

So though he looked good on a stat sheet, with the Red Sox not making the playoffs, he may be out of the top vote-getters for the Cy Young.

4. Jon Lester—The Red Sox have two postseason heroes in Josh Beckett and John Lackey, but Lester somehow established himself as the best pitcher (and maybe best player) in Boston this year.

His 19 wins finished second to only the Yankees’ CC Sabathia, but Boston finished third in the division. So as good as he was, he wasn’t good enough to crack the league’s elite.

Plus, when two candidates come from the same team, they always tend to split the vote.

3. Felix Hernandez—Without a doubt, Hernandez had the best statistical season of any pitcher in the major leagues.

But thanks to the fact he played on the American League’s worst team, he only went 13-12. So even though he led the league in several categories such as ERA, innings and strikeouts, he only comes away with the bronze.

2. CC Sabathia—For the first time in his career, CC won more than 20 games. His 21 victories tied for the lead in the majors, but he gave up more hits and runs then anyone else on this list.

That being said, the man is a horse. He pitched more innings than just about everyone else, and in most games he threw well over a 100 pitches, giving the Yankees a legitimate chance to win every time he took the ball.

1. David Price—As good as his stats are, Price gets the nod over CC for two reasons. First, the good old “eye test”. If you watched any of the games where CC and Price squared off, Price was a more impressive looking pitcher.

Second, the Rays beat out the Yankees in the division, and if value to the team’s final standing is taken into consideration for the award, then Price’s team’s accomplishment will help him win his first Cy Young.

This article originally appeared on The NY Sports Digest. If its off-beat and it’s about the Mets, Yankees, Knicks, Giants, Jets, Islanders, or Rangers, than The Digest is the spot to get it. Stop with the mega-sites and get a feel for the true pulse of New York at www.NYSportsDigest.com

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Now that the Major League Baseball season is officially over, we need to start thinking about the offseason. Here are some important dates that you may want to mark off on your calendar.

Nov. 7, 2010: Free-agent filing period and exclusive negotiating window ends at 12:01 a.m. ET. Free agents can sign with any team.

Nov. 9, 2010: AL Rawlings Gold Glove Awards

Nov. 10, 2010: NL Rawlings Gold Glove Awards

Nov. 15, 2010: AL, NL Rookie of the Year Awards

Nov. 16, 2010: NL Cy Young

Nov. 16, 2010: AL & NL Manager of the Year

Nov. 16-17, 2010: General Managers Meetings, Orlando, Fla.

Nov. 18, 2010: AL Cy Young

Nov. 22, 2010: NL Most Valuable Player

Nov. 23, 2010: AL Most Valuable Player

Nov. 23, 2010: Last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to free agents in order to preserve their right to draft-pick compensation.

Nov. 30, 2010: Last day for free agents to accept salary-arbitration offers.

Dec. 2, 2010: Last day for teams to tender 2011 contracts to players under reserve.

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In his last 10 starts Felix Hernandez has been nothing short of brilliant, giving up no earned runs in five of those outings and one earned run in four other games during that stretch.

He went eight innings in half of the starts, and if the Mariners didn’t hit like the Bad News Bears, Hernandez would win the AL Cy Young award this year by a landslide.

Blame it on bad luck, mismanagement by the front office, or unfortunate timing, but Felix deserves better. He is the best pitcher in baseball right now, and all the attention has been focused on CC Sabathia and David Price.

Perhaps this is because the Yankees and the Rays are in a slugfest for the best record in baseball. Perhaps this is because Felix plays for a miserable Mariners team.

In my opinion this is just another case of the East Coast bias rearing its ugly head.

Felix pitches in Seattle, which is geographically isolated. There are no major markets between Seattle and San Francisco (these two cities are 800 miles apart), so the Mariners get very little exposure and media coverage.

CC Sabathia pitches for the most storied franchise in professional sports and the media capital of the world, while David Price plays for a team that is considered a fly in the ointment and a source of irritation for the Bronx Bombers.

Seattle will never compare to New York in the amount of attention it receives, nor should it. New York is 18 times bigger with transplants all over the country and an unrivaled fanbase. However, those facts shouldn’t overshadow the season Felix has put together. Felix should be acknowledged for his pitching dominance without bias.

In the end I think his body of work speaks for itself, and he’s made a stronger case for the Cy Young Award than anyone else, but he does pitch in Seattle, WA. We’ll see if the sports writers overlook that fact and do the right thing. Good luck Felix.

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In recent weeks a lot has been made about the American League Cy Young award and the debate has mostly surrounded CC Sabathia vs. Felix Hernandez. Last night the Yankees were blanked by Jon Lester and it was an amazing performance that should put him into that conversation as well.

First, let’s get some stats out of the way:

To me, Felix Hernandez is still out in front, but his 12-12 record really doesn’t sit well with a lot of people (even though a team’s lineup and defense weighs at least as heavily as a pitcher’s performance on the mound, so the “Win” statistic is probably the worst representation of a pitcher’s performance out of all the stats above).

So even though it seems ignorant to blame King Felix’s record for why he shouldn’t win, let’s ignore him for now.

Moving on to Jon Lester. Lester has flown under the Cy Young radar for most of the season. Probably because he really never stood out until a recent hot streak and that there have been so many issues surrounding the Red Sox.

Newly acquired John Lackey has been under a microscope, Josh Beckett has been drawing attention thanks to a new contract, an up-and-down season, and injuries. Also there has been Clay Buchholz and his phenomenal season.

Lester won his 19th game of the season last night, giving him at least one more chance to match Sabathia’s 20. He has a lower ERA than CC, as many complete games, more strikeouts, a lower WHIP, a smaller home run rate, a better strikeout rate, and a superior strikeout to walk rate. Really there are only three things he trails CC in, wins, innings, and he walks more (but again, his strikeout to walk ratio is better).

All along, King Felix has had better numbers when compared to Sabathia, but because of a win total many have thought Sabathia has been superior. Now there is a candidate that might be superior to Sabathia and has the win total to back it up.

Personally, I am a huge Sabathia fan. Ever since he signed on the dotted line and donned the pinstripes, he has been my favorite pitcher. And I think he could win a Cy Young one year and will always root for him. But the bottom line is that I don’t want to see him win one that is undeserved because writers put too much emphasis on a stat that says so little about the way you pitch.

If ignorance has to reign, Lester should probably win the award over Sabathia anyway.

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Even had CC Sabathia pitched well last night, who knows if it would’ve been enough to lock down a second Cy Young Award?

The groundswell for Felix Hernandez is building. The Mariners ace fired eight more brilliant innings in a 1-0 loss earlier Thursday, dropping him to 12-12 on the year.

Nevertheless, it’s hard to shake the feeling this is shaping up as a (big air quotes) statement year by voters—the season they show us how smart they are by discounting the (even bigger air quotes) flawed statistics of wins and losses.

Had that happened, and CC got shut out on a 22-win season for a division winner, I can tell you I’d have Steven Seagal in Hard To Kill levels of vengeance ready to spill out on this site. “I’ll take you to the bank, Senator Trent Baseball Writers Association of America…the BLOOD BANK.”

But you can forget that now. There’s no way in hell Sabathia is going to win the award, and he has nobody to blame but himself. The big man got shelled at home by the Rays, in a game against David Price, the other pitcher thought to be a Cy Young favorite.

It was a disappointing start on several levels for Sabathia, who had a chance to both polish his résumé and keep the Yankees comfortably ahead in first and failed at both. Price was no gem himself, but he did what Sabathia couldn’t by keeping the damage to a minimum without his best stuff.

The Yankees head into the final nine games of the season with a half-game lead on the Rays and nine division games remaining against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. The Rays, meanwhile, have a far easier road, wrapping their season against the Orioles, Royals, and Mariners. Yesterday’s loss gave the Rays a 10-8 win in the season series, meaning that in the case of a tie after 162 games, the Rays win the AL East.

In other words, the division title—which, just 48 hours ago, seemed reasonably secure with a 2.5-game lead and CC on tap—is suddenly inching toward long shot status. We can have a debate at another time how important winning the division actually is, but for now I’ll just lament the loss of Sabathia’s personal glory.

Dan Hanzus writes the Yankees blog River & Sunset and can be reached via e-mail at dhanzus@gmail.com. Follow Dan on Twitter @danhanzus.

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Before I begin, I must state two things: I am a Yankees fan and I fully believe in utilizing advanced metrics to determine who deserves certain awards.

What exactly does that mean? That means I think the individual performance should far outweigh aspects of a player’s profile that are affected by their team’s performance.

For example, I look at Bartolo Colon’s 2005 Cy Young to be a travesty of the greatest magnitude. Why? Because I think Bartolo Colon’s 21 wins should not outweigh the fact that Johan Santana had an ERA 0.61 lower than Colon in nine more innings, not to mention Santana’s 81 more strikeouts and 35 fewer hits allowed (in just nine more innings, mind you!).

So why did Colon win the Cy Young in 2005? Because the Angels offense managed 761 runs (and a 93-69 record) that season compared to the Twins 688 runs (and their 83-79 record).

I’ve seen this argument a thousand times and, despite being right, no stat nerd will ever be able to convince an ignorant individual otherwise. Wins will always hold a ridiculous place in the public’s view of a starting pitcher; it’s why the award is named after Cy Young (the all-time leader in wins) and not Walter Johnson (a better pitcher than Cy Young); even though I think the Johnson Award would be a pretty cool name for the prize.

So why does any of this matter? I mean, Zack Greinke won the Cy Young last season despite the fact that he only finished with 16 wins. But last year the next closest pitchers (Hernandez, Sabathia, and Verlander) only finished with 19 wins. Greinke didn’t have as many wins as his nearest competitors, but 20 wins is looked at as a magic number and nobody reached it.

As CC Sabathia nears 20 wins, the debate between traditionalists and new age sabermatricians has taken to a whole new level.

Why? Because Felix Hernandez is currently the best pitcher in the American League despite the fact that he only has 10 wins—compared to CC Sabathia’s 19.

At the moment, CC Sabathia’s statistics are as follows: 29 GS, 19-5, 3.02 ERA, 202.2 IP, 165 SO, and a 1.20 WHIP.

Correspondingly, Felix Hernandez has posted the following stats: 29 GS, 10-10, 2.38 ERA, 211.1 IP, 200 SO, and a 1.10 WHIP.

Without even getting into advanced metrics (and I’d hardly call what I’m about to use advanced metrics) we can see that Hernandez has vastly outperformed Sabathia in every category except for wins.

As for the “advanced metrics,” I will list them for each pitcher. I believe the reader can discern what each stat means based on their traditional baseball abbreviation and an understanding of grammar school math.

Sabathia: K/9: 7.33; BB/9: 2.89; H/9: 7.90; K/BB: 2.54

Hernandez: K/9: 8.52; BB/9: 2.51; H/9: 7.41; K/BB: 3.39

So what does that mean? That means Felix Hernandez has pitched more innings than CC Sabathia while striking out more batters per nine innings, allowing fewer walks and hits per nine innings, and posting a better K/BB ratio. I won’t even get into statistics such as WAR, VORP, or ERA+ (all of which Hernandez leads Sabathia in).

The only “significant” category Sabathia leads Hernandez in is wins.

Why is that?

Perhaps it’s because Sabathia’s Yankees have scored 740 runs against the Mariners’ 435 runs. If 305 runs on offense doesn’t account for the difference between 19 wins and 10 wins, I don’t know what does.

However, some may say, “if all things were equal than Felix Hernandez would be pitching in the AL East, a much tougher division than the AL West.” That’s true…but there are also stats that make that argument seem foolish.

Here are Sabathia and Hernandez’s numbers against each other’s divisions.

Sabathia vs. AL West: 7 games, 6-1 W-L, 50.2 IP, 37 SO, 1.25 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Hernandez vs. AL East: 6 games, 5-0 W-L, 49.1 IP, 53 SO, 0.55 ERA, 0.79 WHIP

Whoops…so much for that argument. By the way, Hernandez’s record against the AL East includes a 3-0 record against the Yankees—the best offensive team in baseball—with a 0.35 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.

And for those who say Hernandez doesn’t have to face the AL East regularly, remember that CC Sabathia NEVER has to face the Yankees, a team that Hernandez has dominated.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’d love for Carsten Charles to win the Cy Young award. In fact, I don’t think there is a pitcher in the American League—besides Felix Hernandez of course—that deserves the award other than him. In fact, I’d be willing to accept the necessary evil of Sabathia winning the award as long as Clay Buchholz doesn’t win it.

But that is something better saved for another article. However, just for thought—and because it relates to Buchholz’s Cy Young candidacy—consider the fact that Mariano Rivera finished second in the 2005 voting ahead of Johan Santana despite the fact that Santana had 153.1 more innings pitched than Rivera. You look at the stats and figure out the correlation.

Unfortunately, I think that this season Felix Hernandez will have to suffer the same indignity Santana faced when he came in third place in Cy Young voting in 2005, despite clearly deserving to win the award.

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The year 2010 has been the year of the pitcher in Major League Baseball. It is filled with no-hitters and perfect games, from very different pitchers all throughout the league. 

Last year, Zack Greinke surprised us all by having a 3 under ERA, and earning 15 wins even with low run support. 

This year, only two pitching candidates are veterans, and one is only 24 years old (guess who it is)!

This has certainly been a surprising and exciting season thus far, and this discussion gives us another reason to love baseball.

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