Rain, rain, go away. Come again when baseball season is over, because you’re ruining everything right now.
Inclement weather has wreaked havoc across MLB this week, forcing three Friday postponements. As a result, all three makeup games will take place on Saturday as part of doubleheaders. As DraftKings players know by now, those are messy endeavors for daily fantasy.
The site will clear one of two games for any given slate. Players must therefore conduct extra lineup research considering most position players won’t play both contests. Before tossing any of these value plays in the lineup, be sure they’re confirmed to go in Saturday’s final season slate.
Early
SP Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants ($8,900)
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Whereas the later games revolve around aces Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer, the early slate lacks any pitching studs. Rookie Noah Syndergaard shouldn’t go deep into his final start before the playoffs, and high-upside arms like Gio Gonzalez and Yordano Ventura each come with concerning command.
While Jake Peavy is far from cheap at $8,900, he’s the safest early cash-contest selection. The San Francisco Giants veteran has uncovered a second wind down the stretch, registering a 1.99 ERA and .174 opposing batting average in September:
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Having pitched the fewest innings (105.2) since his rookie campaign 13 years ago, the 34-year-old righty has no restrictions attached to young and/or playoff-bound hurlers. The matchup also adds to his case. Away from Coors Field, the Colorado Rockies rank last in weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Chris Rusin, on the other hand, doesn’t improve away from the hitter’s park. The southpaw has a 5.46 road ERA compared to a 5.29 ERA at home. If he closes 2015 with his fifth straight strong start, Peavy should receive enough run support to earn a victory.
1B Justin Bour ($3,900) and OF Marcell Ozuna ($3,500), Miami Marlins
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Aaron Harang may tempt some people as a punt play. The veteran righty has allowed two runs over seven frames in each of his last two starts against the Miami Marlins, most recently on Sept. 22.
The change of venue, however, should quickly squash those thoughts. He twirled both of those outings inside Marlins Park, which ranks as the third-least conducive to home runs, per ESPN.com’s Park Factors. Citizens Bank Park, the sixth-most homer-prone park this season, hosts Saturday’s doubleheader.
Justin Bour has needed only 423 plate appearances to belt 23 dingers, all against righties. Since Sept. 1, the late-blooming lefty has belted nine deep flies with a .567 slugging percentage. Marcell Ozuna can’t match those lofty power numbers, but he’s slugging .480 since the Marlins called him up from a lengthy demotion.
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For a little more money, Bour ($3,900) and Ozuna ($3,500) could instead derive value in the evening slate against Alec Asher. Wait for an official lineup before clicking submit.
OF Chris Young, New York Yankees ($2,700)
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For a second, it appeared DraftKings had caught on to Chris Young’s tremendous success against lefties, inflating his price to $4,500 so gamers can no longer steal him for pennies.
Nevermind. That was the pitcher Chris Young. The New York Yankees outfielder only costs $2,700 for the early slate. According to ESPN Deportes‘ Marly Rivera, Wei-Yin Chen will open the doubleheader for the Baltimore Orioles:
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Both Young and Chen carry extreme splits this season. Righties are slugging .505 against Chen on the strength of 25 of his 28 home runs relinquished. Despite regressing after a torrid start, Young still holds a .405 wOBA versus lefties.
He hasn’t homered since Aug. 28, but Young is in great position to start to inflict some damage inside Yankee Stadium.
Evening
SP Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs ($7,400)
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The Chicago Cubs already know they’re facing the Pittsburgh Pirates in Wednesday’s single-elimination playoff game. The location, however, is not yet engraved.
That at least gives them some motivation to close the season strong against the Milwaukee Brewers, who will conclude the weekend without Ryan Braun. Scooter Gennett (.298 on-base percentage) and Logan Schafer (.306 OBP) have recently led off their lineup.
Hendricks’ 4.09 ERA doesn’t reflect his stellar work this season. During his first full year in Chicago’s rotation, the 25-year-old righty has recorded 8.22 strikeouts and 2.22 walks per nine innings with a 51.0 ground-ball percentage. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) and skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) both reside at a sturdier 3.46, and Milwaukee has mustered four runs through three starts against him.
The opposing Tyler Wagner has struggled mightily in two spot starts, allowing five runs in each turn with five walks and two strikeouts. Along with targeting Cubs bats, Hendricks makes a fine No. 2 complement to Greinke.
1B/OF Darin Ruf, Philadelphia Phillies ($2,700)
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Darin Ruf demolishes lefties, hitting .376/.444/.677 with eight homers in 106 plate appearances. The Philadelphia Phillies first baseman is also raking down the stretch, belting five long balls since Sept. 15.
Be careful to only target Ruf in evening slates. Scheduled to pitch on Friday night, Justin Nicolino will now start the second game, according to the Palm Beach Post‘s Joe Capozzi:
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The left-handed rookie has notched a microscopic 21 strikeouts through 67 innings, leading to a 5.66 SIERA. With Tom Koehler getting the earlier nod, Ryan Howard will take the early shift while his younger teammate handles the night duties. Ruf is a golden bargain buy at $2,700.
2B/SS Enrique “Kike” Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,800)
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Nobody tell DraftKings about Enrique “Kike” Hernandez. The overlooked 24-year-old holds a .949 OPS since the All-Star break and a ridiculous 1.236 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Defying his reputation as a scrappy utility man, he made a premier southpaw pay earlier this week, per ESPN Stats & Info:
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With Yasiel Puig hurt, Joc Pederson struggling and Andre Ethier serving a platoon role, there is plenty of room for him in the outfield. As the Los Angeles Dodgers fight for home-field advantage to start their postseason, Hernandez should start against lefty Robbie Erlin, who holds a career 8.24 ERA outside of Petco Park.
While Hernandez has benefited from an outlandish .509 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against lefties, he deserves some credit for creating his good fortune. All but 3.4 percent of his batted balls are classified as either medium (57.6) or hard (39.0) contact. Possessing eligibility at second base and shortstop for $2,800 only sweetens the pot to ride his hot bat.
Note: All advanced stats are courtesy of FanGraphs. Pricing info obtained from DraftKings.com.
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