In Boston the weather has been a tease this week.
Two days ago the temps were in the mid 50’s. Yesterday, it snowed. The Fenway Faithful are starting to salivate for the start of the 2012 season. The team was disgraced last year. Hopefully that means there is a chip on the shoulder of many men on this roster.
Most of all, the pitchers.
With a lot to prove and a fanbase anxious for baseball, here is a look at what we can expect from the starting pitchers in 2012.
1. Josh Beckett
Josh Beckett has been a fantastic pitcher for the Boston Red Sox since joining the team in 2006.
Unfortunately, he’s also been somewhat of an enigma. He has almost ritualistically followed up a stellar season with a lackluster one (often due to injury). Since his first season in Boston, his stats have resembled a typical roller-coaster ride:
2006: 16-11, 5.01 ERA
2007: 20-7, 3.27 ERA
2008: 12-10, 4.03 ERA
2009: 17-6, 3.86 ERA
2010: 6-6, 5.78 ERA
2011: 13-7, 2.89 ERA
So in 2012, will Beckett have another 17- to 20-win season? Or regress and have one of his notorious off years? Only time will tell, but he has been a staple for this Red Sox rotation for a long time, and it’s safe to say he’ll be one the Red Sox’s top starters next season.
Beckett also made an effort to address last season’s issues of drinking in the clubhouse, which can be taken as a good omen.
I’ll look for Beckett to have a bounce-back season and play with a bit of a chip on his shoulder after all of the negative attention he garnered last season.
Is he a lock to be the Opening Day starter? No. But it will likely be either Beckett or Jon Lester.
2. Jon Lester
One of the most consistent pitchers in all of baseball, Lester will once again anchor the Red Sox rotation during the 2012 season.
Consistently good for over 200 innings, an ERA under 4.00 and double-digit wins, Lester is as close to a sure thing next season as the Red Sox are likely to see.
3. Clay Buchholz
Buchholz pitched well last season before going down with a stress fracture in his back, which ended his 2011 season.
The Red Sox will rely heavily on Buchholz next season if they want to compete with the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.
His injury last season was a major reason why the Red Sox collapsed in September and missed the playoffs. Their starting pitchers slumped in a big way (and to be honest, the entire team did as well).
If they still had Buchholz making starts late last season, maybe they would have made the playoffs. He had been one of the best pitchers in the majors up until his injury, sporting a 17-7 record to go with an astounding 2.33 ERA.
Hindsight aside, Buchholz will be a huge X-factor regarding Boston’s success moving forward.
4. Daniel Bard
All signs seem to point to Bard converting to a starter this season.
With the bulk of the moves this offseason going toward fixing the bullpen, adding Mark Melancon and Andrew Bailey, it seems that Bard’s move to the starting rotation is evident.
There’s always a chance that Bard could revert back to his role as setup man (or even switch to closer), but I don’t see that happening barring an injury or setback. If the Red Sox can get Bobby Jenks back to full strength this season as well (after the disastrous injury-ridden season last year, followed by news of a pulmonary embolism), that would further improve their already deep bullpen.
It will be very interesting to see how Bard’s talents translate into becoming a starting pitcher, especially when you think about how his arm will hold up with a huge increase in innings.
5. Bring on the Competition
I use the term “competition” loosely here. The fifth starter spot for the Red Sox is a giant question mark. The only positive Red Sox fans should find with this slot is that it won’t be filled by John Lackey’s underbite next season.
Moving Alfredo Aceves from the bullpen to the fifth starter spot I think hurts the team’s great bullpen depth too much to be considered an option. Also, I think if the Red Sox had plans to move Aceves into the rotation, they would have done it last year in an attempt to right the ship.
Andrew Miller could be seen as an option, but after a solid start to his 2011 campaign, Miller was very inconsistent and struggled with command.
At 45 years old, Tim Wakefield may opt to retire instead of sticking around as the Red Sox’s security blanket for another season, but could still be a viable option.
As for Daisuke Matsuzaka, well, I’ll leave that explanation up to Peter Gammons. It’s hard to believe that this is the same pitcher who went 18-3 with a 2.80 ERA for the Red Sox in 2008. Injuries have derailed Dice-K’s MLB career, which showed so much promise just three years ago. I’d be surprised if Matsuzaka made any appearances this year even if he gets healthy before the end of the season.
There’s also what my friend Asher and I refer to sarcastically as “The Trifecta”—also known as the trio of pitchers the Sox acquired in the offseason to compete for this final slot (or even a spot on the roster): Vicente Padilla, Carlos Silva and Aaron Cook.
I suppose now with the signing of John Maine, fans can switch this to “The Quad.” Regardless of what fans call it, the pitcher who makes this slot will likely need a lot of run support to be successful.
There’s still an off chance that the Red Sox will sign free-agent starter Roy Oswalt, but I honestly don’t think it will happen.
The Sox were also rumored to have offered Edwin Jackson a contract, but the Washington Nationals signed him for $11 million for next season. Personally, I think that $11 million is an absurd amount of money to pay a pitcher who has a career ERA of 4.46, but the Nationals have gained a reputation for overpaying players.
Point being, if Jackson can get $11 million for one season, I bet Oswalt’s agent is watching. He may not get that kind of money, but he’ll probably hold out for more money than the Red Sox can offer.
So again, let the competition for the fifth starter position begin. Maybe spring training will lend itself to stiff competition between a group of guys vying for an important spot on Boston’s roster.
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If you missed the introductory press conference for new Boston manager Bobby Valentine, you missed quite a show. He said some good things and he said some bad things, noting that it is definitely going to be an interesting season at Fenway Park.
There was one feature of what both Valentine and general manager Ben Cherington confirmed last night, and that’s time. Now I don’t mean how long it will take to win another World Series or anything like that. I mean how long it takes to make a decision or respond to a question.
Bobby Valentine was asked plenty of questions last night and he took a considerable time to think about the “right” answer to each of them. It seemed that he didn’t want to say the wrong thing and he made a lot of interesting points on some of the players.
He made it obvious when asked about his analysis on ESPN that he has some “suggestions” for players such as Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett. The one player that I felt he really didn’t get into enough was Daniel Bard. Valentine was asked what he felt Bard’s role would be going forward, either keeping him in the relief role or converting him into a starting pitcher.
He responded by saying that Bard is a great pitcher, but he doesn’t know what his role is going to be yet.
The basis of the questions directed at Cherington involved what his view of Valentine was during the manager search process and really what took so long to name him the manager. He admitted that his style of making a decision is taking a long period of time to thoroughly think it over.
Well Ben, you’re in the general manager’s chair now and you have to be able to make quick decisions. Now I am a big supporter of Ben getting the GM job, but so far he has disappointed me. Whether or not the Phillies paid too much for Jonathan Papelbon, Cherington didn’t act promptly enough to offer him a deal.
Just hours after the press conference Heath Bell, another big name on the free agent market, signed a three-year deal with the Miami Marlins.
So far that’s two big name closers who will not be pitching in a Boston uniform this season. It’s reasonable to leave majority of your work for the offseason to the upcoming Winter Meetings, but Boston has to get the ball rolling.
Valentine and Cherington will have to decide what Bard’s role is going to be because if he is going to be a starting pitcher, Ben has to go out there and get a closer, and a good one at that. It will be easier if the duo decides to make Bard into the every day closer and find another starting pitcher to fill the spot left by John Lackey.
These Winter Meetings are going to be very interesting for a lot of teams, but for Boston, it’s extremely important to get things done, unless it’s going to be another disappointing season.
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After struggling through a brutal month of April, the Red Sox began playing up to their potential during the month of May, going 19-10 and temporarily pulling into first place before slumping as the month came to a close.
The month included a seven-game winning streak, an 11-0 drubbing at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels and back-to-back wins in which the offense scored a pair of touchdowns.
The offense hit .287 in May and produced 156 runs (5.38 runs per game), but the pitching staff wasn’t quite as successful, posting a 4.01 ERA in the month.
The starting rotation won more games in May than it had in April (13, as opposed to 10), but saw its ERA increase by more than a quarter of a run (4.14, as opposed to 3.83 in April).
On the other hand, the bullpen was dramatically better…posting a much better record (6-4, as opposed to 1-5 in April) and lower its ERA by nearly a run-and-a-half (3.76, down from 5.13).
With the first weekend of June upon us, it is time for me to distribute my report card for the first two months of the 2011 campaign.
Over the course of the next two days, I will present my report card for the ballclub through the first two months of the 2011 season. Today, I start with the pitching staff… tomorrow I’ll examine the hitters:
The Starting Rotation
Josh Beckett: A-
He was surprisingly strong in April, and somehow managed to be even better during May despite not having a lot to show for it (thanks to paltry run support).
Last month, he went 2-1, with an exceptional 1.00 ERA (4 ER in 36 IP) and 1.17 WHIP (up from April, when it was just 0.85).
I am not saying he is the pitcher he was back in 2007-08, he is not—his strikeout-rate is three-quarters of a point lower and his walk-rate is nearly double what it was back in the day—and according to fangraphs.com, less than half of his pitches are in the strike zone (his zone rating is just 48.8% thus far in 2011).
Plus, his ground ball to fly ball ratio is nearly 1-to-1 thus far in 2011. These are harbingers of potential problems for later in the season…but all things being equal, the ballclub will take it. He seems to have reinvented himself on the mound.
He is pitching more to contact. He is relying less on his fastball (52% in 2011) and curve (17%) while using his cutter (17%) and changeup (14%) far more often.
He only averaged six innings per start throughout the month of May, but when the results are as good as they were it is hard to complain about length of outings… still, there is enough to be concerned about here that he doesn’t get an “A.”
Clay Buchholz: B
After sleepwalking through the month of April, Clay flipped the switch in May… it truly was a Tale of Two Pitchers. After going 1-3, 5.33 in April, he went 3-0, 2.08 in May.
But it is the peripherals that really underscore how well he pitched in May: opponents hit just .204 against him, his WHIP was 0.95, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio was an outstanding 3.63-to-1 over 39 IP (he walked 8 batters all month).
His grade lags due to his slow start, and while I am cautiously optimistic moving forward, I see warning signs on the horizon: most notably, he has thrown just 44% of his pitches for strikes in 2011.
If hitters start to lay off his offerings, he’ll either issue more walks or have to give them better pitches to swing at…and then what happens?
John Lackey: F
A rough April turned into an unbelievably horrific May for Lackey, and after two starts early in the month he was shut down with a tender elbow, but the widespread conjecture is that his struggles have had nothing to do with any physical discomfort in his right arm.
Most pundits believe his struggles are a direct result of issues in his personal life—that is to say, his focus is lacking (no pun intended) when he is at the ballpark as a result of his wife’s battle with cancer.
While his dilemma is understandable and we can all sympathize with his plight, his manager and teammates need him to do a better job of blocking those issues from his mind when he toes the rubber.
It’s a lot to ask, but if he leans how to do it he may be able to use baseball as an escape from those things in life that really matter…
Jon Lester: B
Lester has got it all backwards. He is a usually slow starter who gets better as the weather heats up before faltering in the intense heat of August, but the 2011 season thus far hasn’t followed form.
He was strong in April (3-1, 2.52), raising Red Sox Nation’s expectations this would develop into his first Cy Young campaign… but those hopes were dashed by a brutal May—during which he posted a 5.50 ERA over 36 IP (though his record was 4-1).
He pitched well in Cleveland 10 days ago and it appeared he had turned things around, but the White Sox hammered him on Monday night (5.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 4 BB), so we are again left to wonder what is going on with our would-be ace.
Thanks to his offense, he was 2-0, with 1 No Decision, in three games in which he allowed 14 earned runs in just 17.1 IP; otherwise, he would be a .500 pitcher with nearly a 4.00 ERA through the first two months of the season.
Tim Wakefield: C+
With Matsuzaka’s career in Boston apparently concluded (or close to being finished), his regular spot in the rotation will reportedly be handed off to knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, though I think it should go to Alfredo Aceves.
I know I am beating a dead horse here, but Wakefield is getting older and he has a chronic bad back. Taking a regular turn in the rotation will not benefit either the pitcher or the ballclub… but we all know that he wants to set the mark for most wins in team history.
He threatens to be a sullen influence in the corner of the clubhouse (a la Nomar Garciaparra, in ‘03 and ‘04) if he doesn’t get his way, so it seems the manager is going to appease him by letting him have Dice-K’s slot at the back end of the rotation.
He is 2-1, 4.25, in sporadic starts in the rotation thus far in 2011, so it’s not like he’s been a disaster up to this point, but it remains to be seen what those numbers will look like after the grind of taking a start every fifth day wears on him throughout the summer.
Incomplete: Daisuke Matsuzaka
With his Red Sox career prematurely ended by an elbow injury and his impending Tommy John surgery, I will resist the temptation to dance on his grave.
He made eight appearances (seven starts) in 2011 and posted a 3-3 record, with a 5.30 ERA. It’s possible the elbow injury caused his ineffectiveness… let’s just leave it at that.
The Bullpen
Alfredo Aceves: B+
Aceves has been everything he promised to be when the Red Sox signed him away from the NY Yankees as a free agent back in February. He has appeared in 14 games (3 as the starting pitcher) and has posted a 2-1 record, with a 3.51 ERA.
He is 1-1, 4.50, as a starter (he should have had another win except for a Matt Albers meltdown against the Cubs)… he provided the club with two outstanding starts before getting battered in his last outing.
He has a career mark of 16-2, with a 3.28 ERA, so it would seem we will be in for more of the same from him throughout the summer.
Matt Albers: B-
I am a BIG fan of Aceves, but not of Albers… sorry, Albers fans. It seems that whenever there is an implosion in the Sox bullpen, he’s in the middle of it.
Frankly, I am not sure what the front office saw in a guy that posted an ERA of 4.50+ in four of his five seasons prior to coming to Boston—while playing for non-contending teams in Houston and Baltimore.
I don’t think he has the stuff to pitch meaningful innings for a team that has championship aspirations.
Daniel Bard: B+
In spite of decent results and a B+ grade, Bard has been a disappointment for me through the first two months of 2011.
I gave him a pass after posting a 0-3 mark in April owing to some bad luck he had, but May (1-1, 3.38) was only marginally better and not what I had expected from the guy who is Jonathan Papelbon’s heir apparent.
In my opinion, the next closer needs to post an ERA under 2.00, a WHIP significantly lower than 1.00, and a K-rate that is substantially north of 1.0 / 9 IP… Bard’s ERA is 3.29 (as opposed to the 1.93 mark he posted last season), his WHIP is in the vicinity of 1.00 and his K-rate is barely 1.0.
Maybe he is hampered by heightened (or unrealistic) expectations, but at this point he doesn’t seem ready to be the club’s closer in 2012.
If his performance remains the same throughout the rest of the season, could it set the stage for Pappy to return to the organization next season?
Bobby Jenks: F
He has been brutal up to this point of the season, posting a 7.59 ERA in 13 games. When he went on the DL in early-May, I wondered whether his early-season struggles could be explained by an injury.
But he has allowed four base runners in two innings of work since coming off the DL, so now I am left to wonder whether his ineffectiveness is an indicia that ChiSox manager Ozzie Guillen and ChiSox GM Kenny Williams were on to something when they cut him loose.
It seems plausible the Red Sox front office brought Jenks on board as an insurance policy for 2012, assuming Papelbon would leave via free agency at the end of this year and in case Bard proves incapable of assuming the closer’s duties by next season.
But with Bard struggling to become a lock-down closer and Jenks proving to be completely ineffective, it seems the Red Sox should (at least) entertain the possibility or bringing their resurgent closer back for the next three or four years.
Hideki Okajima: C-
Okajima’s ERA has increased in every season since he first became a member of the Red Sox (from 2.22 in 2007 to 4.50 last season). While his 4.32 ERA thus far was marginally better than last year, it isn’t what you want from your lefty specialist.
His ineffectiveness stems from lack of control (5 BB in 8.1 IP) and bought him a demotion to Pawtucket. He has watched as the Red Sox turned to Rich Hill, traded for Franklin Morales and has now promoted 29-year-old Tommy Hottovy.
Yesterday, he declared he wants to be traded—as opposed to being re-promoted to Boston. Sayonara, Okaji!
Jonathan Papelbon: B+
Pappy had been cruising along pretty well until about a week ago, then he allowed runs in three of four appearances (four runs in 4 IP)… as a result, his ERA increase by more than a run (from 2.29 to 3.42).
Last night, he came into a save situation against Oakland and he was overpowering in registering his 11th save of the season.
While it is a bit disconcerting that he has allowed runs in seven of his 24 appearances, the fact of the matter is that he is 2-0, with 11 saves and only one blown save… and at times he’s looked like the dominant closer you want at the back end of the bullpen.
While it has been assumed this year would be his last season in a Red Sox uniform, his performance (combined with the struggles of Bard and Jenks) makes it likely the front office will have to kick the tires on bringing him back in 2012.
Dan Wheeler: B
Wheeler is another reliever the ballclub signed in the off-season in the hope of improving a bad bullpen, and he is another guy who has been a HUGE disappointment.
Like Jenks, he went on the DL in early-May, raising the possibility his early-season struggles were in part linked to an injury.
He has made four appearances since being reactivated and hasn’t allowed a run… lowering his ERA by more than three-and-a-half runs in the process.
His performance since his return (4.2 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K) leaves me hopeful that he will prove to be highly effective moving forward.
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Look at what fantasy baseball has done to us. We pore over pre-season rankings, stalk the Internet for live game box scores, pray for injuries just major enough to open up opportunities for sleepers. All in the hope of compiling enough saves to win the category.
Of course, roto leagues aren’t the only reason for the baseball-loving public’s collective love affair with closers, but they sure do bring out the fanatic in all of us.
Prior to 1969, saves weren’t even and official statistic. Prior to 1960, they didn’t exist at all. For roughly 70 years, the sport got along just fine without having a specific way of quantifying close-game, ninth-inning success, but in the decades since its inception, the save has come to dominate the way managers deploy pitching staffs.
As relievers became more popular in the latter half of the last century, the best arms were used more and more in high-pressure situations. Ultimately, that led to the modern “closer”, usually a bullpen’s most reliable arm that could come in and preserve ties or leads at the end of games.
With teams depending so heavily on closers, it’s not enough to have just one established guy. Each club also needs a closer-in-waiting or two, setup men that, if needed, can step in and get the job done.
So who has staked their claim to the closer-in-waiting spot in 2011? It’s time to review (in no particular order) the 15 best relievers who aren’t closing now, but could be in line for saves before the season is out.
This is sort of like last minute Christmas shopping. Here is one final tip for you before you have your fantasy baseball league draft. Sorry but I can’t stop you from picking a bunch of stiffs. What I can do is give you a few ideas as to which “sleepers” might be able to help your team in spite of your other draft picks.
There have been a ton of injuries this Spring, so some of these sleepers may get an early start. I have my own draft on Sunday, so I’ll be reading this too when I’m done writing it. I’ve heard the phrase, “maybe you should take your own advice” before, so I just may have to do that.
None of these guys are Rumpelstiltskin sleepers, but they will probably go late in your draft and a few maybe not at all. I listed the teams by division starting with the National League. Without further ado, here they are.
Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon is entering the final year of his contract with the team. Last year, Papelbon was not the dominant pitcher he has been in previous years, but was still a top closer.
Since Papelbon became a closer in 2006, he has posted ERAs of 0.92, 1.85, 2.34 and 1.85. Last year his ERA ballooned to 3.90. As the season progressed and Sox relief wunderkid Daniel Bard came into his own, dominating AL hitters, some fans began to call for Bard to replace Papelbon as closer.
Bard is not Papelbon, nor is he an elite closer. He has the potential to one day be great, but he is an unproven commodity on a team of proven players.
How many times does a dominant relief pitcher transition to the closer’s role and all of a sudden lose his dominance? Too many.
Think about Boston’s failed closer-by-committee experiment in the early 2000s: Mike Timlin and Alan Embree were both phenomenal in middle relief, but at that point in their careers, they were blowing far too many saves to reliably close.
The Red Sox are a team built to win this year (and their relative youth should continue the tradition of winning this year for years to come). To rely on Bard would be a gamble, and this is a team that doesn’t need to gamble.
Sox manager Terry Francona has showed loyalty to “his guys” in the past. Think about the David Ortiz slumps to begin the last couple of seasons. It takes a lot for Francona to give up on someone. Papelbon has not yet neared the level of inconsistency warranted for Francona to consider a change.
Despite Papelbon’s struggles last year, he still had 37 saves. And this season, he starts spring training with extra rest.
Papelbon is a pitcher who has worked hard in every postseason for the last few years. Generally, he comes to spring training with one month less to recuperate than other pitchers.
Boston’s failure to make the postseason last year gave Papelbon an extra month of rest, and he said he has noticed a difference in how his body responded.
Papelbon is also in a contract year. He doesn’t seem to be the type of guy who needs motivation beyond simple competition, but it never hurts to have dollar signs in the back of players’ heads.
While the Sox will not trade Papelbon this season, regardless of whether he has a career revival or not, they will almost definitely not re-sign him during the offseason.
Papelbon will demand top-player money, and the Sox already have a payroll near the top of the league. Depending on whether Bard proves himself a worthy heir this season, the Sox will likely give him the opportunity to close next year.
But Papelbon will be the Red Sox closer this season. And if the Sox make the playoffs, Papelbon will be the guy on the mound when the season ends, for better or worse.
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By George Campbell
Red Sox setup man Daniel Bard had his best outing of the spring Tuesday as the Sox beat the Astros 3-2.
Bard was in the unusual position of coming in the inning after closer Jonathan Papelbon. He pitched the sixth inning, getting out all three batters he faced, including two by strikeout.
“I felt good, had some timing issues my first couple games, I kind of figured out what I was doing yesterday and today, and took it out there today,” Bard said after the game. “That’s what I expect of myself. It felt good to get the results matching how you feel.”
His first few outings were not so good, but he feels good and is making the adjustments he needs to be ready for the regular season.
“My arm feels good and my body feels good,” he had said prior to the game. “I’m just trying to find the consistency as early as possible. The results haven’t been that great for me so far, but the arm feels good and the pitches have been good, but I’ve just been falling behind guys early, so I think it’s just the mental approach to each hitter that’s still coming along.”
While his role in the Red Sox bullpen is pretty clearly defined, he does not take anything for granted.
“There’s always competition, and I think competition is a good thing, especially for me. I kind of feed off it. It helps me on the field knowing there’s somebody right there ready to take your job at any given time. It makes you kind of play to your peak.”
The Sox added a number of relievers during the offseason, including former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks and others like Matt Albers, Dan Wheeler and Rich Hill. They still have many of the same guys he worked in the pen with last year too: Papelbon, Hideki Okajima and Scott Atchison. There are several others with the club this spring vying for one of the few available bullpen spots.
“Nothing is guaranteed the next year, especially as relievers,” Daniel explains. “Its consistency, it’s the guys that are consistent that stick around.
“I came out knowing my role last year. I knew that setup role was kind of mine to blow, based on how things had finished up in 2009. I think a lot of relievers are driven by the fear of failure, and I’m no different.”
Bard is not setting any goals as far as numbers go for 2011 but has a clear mindset for what he wants to achieve with the Red Sox.
“Being the same guy every time the phone rings and my name is called, being ready to pitch every day and try to match what I did last year and help us win a championship. Numbers wise, a lot of things are out of my control, but I know if I can take care of the things I can control off the field, things like my preparation, then the on-field things will take care of themselves.”
Some pitchers have intense pregame rituals prior to a game. Bard’s pregame preparation includes doing something relaxing. He was practicing this ritual before Tuesday’s game against the Astros.
“Usually at home games around Fenway there’s a guitar sitting around and I pick it up and play 30 minutes before game time or so. I don’t know if it relaxes me or what, I just enjoy playing it.”
Apparently it works because in 2010 he led the American League with 32 holds and became just the third Red Sox reliever in team history to pitch over 70 innings and have an ERA under 2.00.
Hopefully Daniel will be entertaining his teammates with his guitar well into October this year.
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Terry Francona has been given a Ferrari and is expected to drive it into the winner’s circle. But to maximize the potential, he will need to take good care of it throughout the rigors of a 162-game schedule.
It would be hard to really screw up this lineup, as stacked as it is, but there are some changes that need to be made to make sure the team runs like a well-oiled machine. He’s got the pieces, now its time to put them in the right places.
With the new addition of former Chicago White Sox closer Bobby Jenks and a great 2010 from Daniel Bard, there has been a lot of speculation as to what will happen with Jonathan Papelbon. There has been much talk of a trade, as Paps will likely test the market and walk after the season. While these three arms could each close for the Sox in ’11 and see tremendous results, the team is best served with Papelbon remaining on the roster closing games.
Bobby Jenks didn’t have the most encouraging final season in Chicago. Fellow White Sox relievers Matt Thornton and Chris Sale both saw time at closer after Jenks had been relieved of that duty multiple times. This resulted in heated confrontations between Jenks and manager Ozzie Guillen. However, Jenks removal from the closer position may have been well deserved for the way Jenks was pitching at the time. He saw the highest ERA of his career at 4.44 and the second highest WHIP at 1.367. His 1-3 record was also the worst of his career, although closers aren’t necessarily judged off of stellar records. While Jenks should be motivated coming into a new team and to prove the White Sox wrong, he may also question his ability to close games based on how he was jerked back in forth in Chicago. Jenks serves the Sox best as a set up man in 2011.
In his first full season in a Red Sox uniform in 2010, Bard put up glistening numbers. His 1.93 ERA in 74.2 innings was among the lowest on the team and he struck out 76 batters while recording a 1.004 WHIP. These numbers had many fans feeling that if Bard was to close in 2011, the Sox wouldn’t lose anything if Papelbon was to be moved. While Bard’s off speed pitches developed tremendously last season, one more year as a prime set up man would do Bard a lot of good. Bard’s breaking pitches are still a work in progress. Although his slider and curve were rather devastating in 2010, flying in at 83 MPH after a 99 MPH heater, these pitches will need to be perfected if he is to continue his current dominance as the team’s closer.
While there is no question that he is being groomed as the closer of the future, the addition of Jenks adds some security to Bard’s situation. If he should struggle in his second full season, Bard can be pushed up a little in the bullpen and Jenks can take over as the primary setup man, taking some pressure off of Bard. The same can be said with newly signed Dan Wheeler. These two signings provide depth to the Sox bullpen that wasn’t present in 2010, and it should only help Daniel Bard’s development.
With such viable closing options other than Jonathan Papelbon on the roster, continuity will be the most important thing in 2011. One of the only things that could truly derail this team is a stirrup and inconsistency in the bullpen. Despite a plethora of injuries last season, a shaky bullpen was arguably just as important of a factor in the Sox missing out on October baseball in 2010. That is why it is important that Jonathan Papelbon remains the closer in 2011.
Dealing Papelbon at this point likely wouldn’t bring in a fair enough return to justify dealing him. Paps is coming up on the last year of his contract, and he will likely make upwards of $13 million in his final season. There aren’t many teams that can afford to take a $13 million chance on a one year closer. The teams that can already sport names such as Rivera, Rodriguez, Marmol , and Feliz in their closer slot. Papelbon is among a group of other Sox players who will hopefully perform at their highest level as they are in contract years. If he can revert to his 2009 form and forget about 2010, Papelbon should remain a solid closing option for the Sox in 2011. If it he somehow is worse this season than last, the Sox have padded themselves with the security to have Bard or Jenks close and move Paps to a setup role. But this shift should only take place if it is 100 percent necessary. Hopefully the new, added depth won’t cause manager Terry Francona to make a quicker shift if Paps should struggle.
Papelbon needs to remain the team’s closer for the 2011 season. Shuffling the bullpen and assigning the closer role to a pitcher in Jenks who shaky last season, or a youngster in Bard who has never closed regularly before, is something that the Sox don’t need right now. This team has a chance to make waves and compete for a World Series in 2011, and the bullpen is an integral factor in accomplishing this goal. The Sox have done well to rebuild the pen, and keeping Papelbon as the closer will solidify the pen as one of the best in the A.L.
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