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Distressing as it may be for the Red Sox Nation, the 2010 campaign died months before the season itself concluded. With heavy hearts, skeptical brows and gnawed fingertips, the Nation did its best to stomach a Sox-less October and look toward the 2011 season with growing optimism.

Shaking off the nasty sense of déjà vu 2010 has cast on Beantown will require some serious action at both the personal and franchise levels. Who would have thought the Red Sox could experience more horrific, season-derailing injuries than in 2006?

At least—most sports commentators contend—this should be a busy winter for general manager Theo Epstein as he looks to retool his Red Sox for a more successful “next year.” But will it indeed be a busy off-season brimming with possible mega deals and spotted with excellent free-agent signings?

This writer isn’t so sure.

While the major media outlets will surely keep the Faithful on their hopeful toes with heart-thumping “trade rumors,” a more pragmatic analysis of the Red Sox roster indicates that less flamboyant signings will figure prominently in Boston’s unfortunately long winter.

For what it’s worth, here then are one writer’s views and predictions for the upcoming Red Sox off-season.

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The Boston Red Sox have made undoubtedly the most surprising pre-free-agency move in the league today. They exercised their $12.5 million option on David Ortiz, an option that contained no buyout clause.

Ortiz turns 35 this month, and has an RSL of .257/.356/.498 over the past three seasons, averaging 28 homers and 97 RBI per year. The move was likely made based on Papi’s popularity and the fact that he went .286/.385/.558 this season after April ended.

In a free-agent class that will include Lance Berkman, Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, Troy Glaus, Vladamir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Pat Burrell, Marcus Thames, Aubrey Huff, Russell Branyan, Adam LaRoche, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Pena, Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome among first base/designated hitter types, it is very odd that the Red Sox would pay such a premium to keep a player who is barely in the upper echelon of that group.

There will be some fantastic designated hitter bargains come January, and while the Sox certainly aren’t penny-pinchers, they do need to spend money to fill other voids on their team.

For more on David Ortiz and the 2010-2011 Major League Baseball offseason, check out BaseballEvolution.com.

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When the Red Sox picked up the option for 2011 on David Ortiz, it brought back questions that have been occurring over the last couple of years when it comes to his value and if next year is the year when his on-the-field production falls off the table.

Many times, Ortiz has been compared to former Red Sox All-Star and slugging first baseman Mo Vaughn and rightfully so.

1. Ortiz and Vaughn both, in their own rights, are famed Red Sox slugging first basemen. Check.
2. They both hit left-handed. Check.
3. They are both recognized as players who led their respective teams to American League pennants. Check.
4. Vaughn and Ortiz have finished in the top five in AL MVP voting at least three times. Check.
5. Their career averages are 35 home runs and over 110 RBI. Check.

However, for some reason, everyone remembers how Vaughn’s career ended and puts Ortiz in the same light.

Let’s refresh those on what happened to the “Hit Dog.”

In March 2001, Vaughn was placed on the 60-day DL due to a bicep injury after two seasons with the Anaheim Angels where he collected 69 HR and 225 RBI.

He was traded to the New York Mets and was never the same after the bicep injury.

He missed all of 2003, and that was his age-33 season. He came back in 2004 and hit 26 HR in 558 plate appearances while hitting .259. At age 35, Vaughn played in 27 games for the Mets, and his career was over.

From a statistical perspective, Ortiz is entering a critical year.

He improved last year from a power production perspective in comparison to his two previous years but is still down from his age-31 year, when he hit .332 and the Sox won their second World Series title in four years. Also, his batting average and OPS are down, as he has not had an OPS north of .900 since 2007 as well.

However, let’s keep in mind that he missed more than a month in 2008 and dealt with the “rumor” in 2009, and he still produced pretty well last year and just missed getting an OPS of .900.

Fast-forward to 2011. Ortiz is entering his age-35 season with a $12.5 million deal.

If Ortiz was going to precipitously drop in production, it certainly should have happened following his age-33 year, when he hit .238 and was marred with his mention on a list suggesting that he was not “clean.” Instead, he finished eighth in the American League in slugging percentage and OPS (.529 and .899) and was fourth in at-bats per home runs (16.2).

Vaughn, at his career pinnacle, ranged from 14.1 to 15.2 at-bats per home run, and guess what his salary was during these years? Between 2000-2002, Vaughn’s average salary was $12.166 million.

If you factor in inflation, Ortiz is coming at a cheaper dollar than Vaughn did with more production even at $12.5 million. 

Ortiz showed Red Sox Nation that he was worth the risk of the club picking up his option to see if he can deliver an OPS north of .900 this year during his age-35 season. He almost did it last year, and I am sure that is one of his personal goals this year while playing at least 149 games.

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At least for one more year, the Boston Red will bring back one of the most popular players in franchise history.

The Red Sox picked up David Ortiz’s $12.5 million option for the 2011 season, which will be his ninth in a Red Sox uniform.

Ortiz is all smiles after Boston picked up his 2011 option

For both parties, this deal was a no brainer.

For the Red Sox, they bring back a guy who hit .270/.370/.529 with 32 HR’s in 145 games in 2010. Ortiz, even at 35, is still an integral part of the Red Sox offense. Ortiz led the Red Sox in HR’s and was third on the team in OPS (.899).

I think what gave Boston GM Theo Epstein the confidence to bring Ortiz back was the fact that Big Papi got better as the season progressed. After hitting a pathetic .143 with one HR in April, it looked as if Big Papi was a Post Toastie.

But then, like a Phoenix rising from the ashes (dramatic pause), Ortiz turned into a monster. He hit .363 with 10 HR’s in May and ended the season hitting .306 with five HR’s in September and October.

I think if he started off fast and then faded in the second half, Ortiz wouldn’t be returning to the Red Sox in 2011.

This deal also makes sense for the Red Sox because it’s a one-year deal. Giving a 35-year-old DH a two- or three-year deal wouldn’t have made much sense at all.

For Ortiz, he gets to return to the place that made him a superstar for one more season at a very good salary. Ortiz wanted a multi-year deal, but A) No team was going to give him that and B) No team would come close to giving him the $12.5 million he is going to earn in 2011.

Odds are if Ortiz hit the open market this offseason, he was looking at a $5–$6 million deal. At the end of the day, Ortiz lucked out by having the Red Sox pick up his option.

The Red Sox settled on their DH position on Thursday. Now if they can settle on their third base and catcher situation, they will really be in business in 2011.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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The Boston Red Sox announced today that they will pick up the $12.5 million option on David Ortiz for the 2011 season.

The move gives the Red Sox the premier DH in baseball but at a price likely above what they want to pay.

Ortiz, 34, had a strong 2010 season in which he batted .270 with 32 home runs and 102 RBI. His OPS was an impressive .899, and he was voted to his sixth All-Star team.

It was a great rebound year for Ortiz, who in 2009 was on the verge of being released midseason after struggling to hit his first home run. He still managed to slug 28, but the signs of his decline could not be ignored.

But somehow he’s back in Boston for his 15th season. Are the Red Sox going to regret this?

On the surface, no. Ortiz is still one of the best hitters in the game, as long as he doesn’t have to face left-handed pitching. His career-adjusted OPS of 134 ties him with Mark Teixeira and places him above guys like Jose Canseco, Tony Gwynn and Wade Boggs.

But at his age, how long can he keep it up?

If 2011 is finally the season in which Ortiz hits a wall and isn’t able to climb over it, the Red Sox are going to be in a major hole. Not only will they be out $12.5 million, but they’ll also have to try to contend without a true middle-of-the-order bat.

Boston could have easily found a DH to replace Ortiz for a fraction of the cost. Adam Dunn, still only 30 years old, would’ve been a great option. Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena could also have been had for a reasonable price. 

There is no way a 34-year-old left-handed hitter who can’t play the field is worth $12.5 million. If the Red Sox declined the option, then Ortiz would have been lucky to get a two-year deal for $15 million on the free agent market. So why bring him back?

The answer, it seems, is loyalty. Terry Francona loves his players, and there’s no doubt that Ortiz is a great clubhouse presence. The Red Sox have the financial power to overpay certain players. But might that extra $5 million or so been better spent re-signing Adrian Beltre or maybe even signing Adrian Gonzalez to a long-term contract if Boston can acquire him?

If Ortiz reproduces his 2010 season, then GM Theo Epstein can breathe a sigh of relief. But if Ortiz regresses, then the Red Sox will have to scramble to replace his bat.

Picking up his option was a risky decision. If Ortiz can’t produce, then it’s going to turn into a very bad one.

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In a largely expected move on Thursday morning, the Boston Red Sox exercised their $12.5 million club option on David Ortiz. The information was relayed via tweets from Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe.

The decision comes even as Ortiz has commented this week that he would prefer Boston not to exercise the option and instead offer him the security of a multi-year extension: “I’m not comfortable coming back just for one year because it’s going to be the same roller-coaster that I had this year,” Ortiz commented to WEEI’s Rob Bradford.

To many in and out of Boston, Ortiz has unquestionably produced at a level deserving of a multi-year deal. In 2010, Ortiz hit .270 with an 899 OPS, 32 home runs, and 102 RBI. While his 2010 production, measured sabermetrically, didn’t approach his career years between 2005 and 2007, it did outstrip a $12.5 million salary.

The issue at stake for the Red Sox front office doesn’t seem to be Ortiz’ production; rather, exercising his option seems all about roster flexibility.

Were the Red Sox and Ortiz to negotiate a two or three-year deal, surely they could have arrived at a yearly salary closer to $10 million. But by choosing the more expensive, short-term option, Boston has allowed itself the freedom to sign or acquire a big slugger in 2011.

With Prince Fielder on the block and Adrian Gonzalez a free agent in twelve months, avoiding an extension with Ortiz seems a shrewd move.

For breaking Red Sox news updates, follow Peter on Twitter at BoSoxUpdate.

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Call it a transition year. Call it an unlucky year. Call it whatever you want, but the 2010 Boston Red Sox simply failed to meet the expectations of management, fans, and baseball pundits across the country.

There are a handful of factors worthy of blame here, including general manager Theo Epstein’s reluctance to part with prospects to shore up the bullpen or acquire a top-flight pitcher like Cliff Lee. But pointing fingers is no way to win a World Series.

So with the 2010 Red Sox season officially in the books, let’s forget the past and take a closer look at the decisions that will help shape the 2011 Boston Red Sox. First up, Boston’s free agent and arbitration-eligible players.

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David Ortiz started off the 2010 campaign very slowly, but that seems to become a trademark start to the year for him. He got off to the same type of start in 2009, but picked it all up and the same pattern carried on in 2010. Big Papi just hit his 31st home-run of the season, but nobody seemed to notice. 

David Ortiz has not been the same imposing figure in the Red Sox line-up since Manny Ramirez left. He came out with his performance enhancing drugs admission, but has failed to carry the Red Sox like he use to. He occasionally shows flashes of his old self with clutch hits and runs batted in. 

Ortiz has a contract expiration date coming in 2012 as he has an option for that year that includes no buyout. The Providence Journal is reporting that the Red Sox have not been in contact with Ortiz as of yet on the topic. The options that Theo Epstein have are either cut him loose or workout new numbers and years. 

The aging designated hitter has expressed interest in having a multi-year deal. It will be up to the Red Sox front office to bite or not. Big Papi doesn’t stop there and says that he is assured that he will sign elsewhere and will play in the Major Leagues. 

Ortiz told the Providence Journal, “Sometimes I feel like I’m part of the family, and I’m going to stick around longer, but I’m not the one who makes that decision. I’m not the one who makes that move. I’m trying to do my job and hopefully take care of that after the season.”

In the past, Ortiz has told radio waves that he will not take a paycut. Big Papi is sending the message that if the Red Sox do not flash the big bucks, he will not hesitate to find the dollars elsewhere. 

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October can’t come any sooner for fans of the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, and Texas Rangers. The American League has little to no excitement on the postseason hunt in September with teams like the Red Sox and White Sox playing for any realistic hope that just isn’t there to be had. 

Major League Baseball is in a difficult spot when it comes down to September every year. The National Football League opens play in September and if a team such as the Red Sox or White Sox is out of the hunt you pretty much forget baseball to focus on your Patriots or Bears. 

Personally to play 162 games in the regular season and only have four teams from each league pass through to the next round of the season makes it impossible for teams to end playoff droughts. Teams like the Washington Nationals or Kansas City Royals will never make it to the playoffs in this system. Not with the wealthier teams dominating in their divisions with no space for them to make any ground up. 

Now with Major League Baseball taking the initiative to end the postseason before Halloween, any such fix to the playoffs would have to be relatively short. So what can be done to fix up a leaking faucet of a playoff system? MLB could start by adding a pair of teams into the mix giving 6 teams a shot at the playoffs from each league. 

American League/National League

Team #1 (Best Record); Bye                                                 Team #1 (Best Record); Bye

Team #2 (Second Best Record); Bye                                     Team #2 (Second Best Record); Bye

Team #3 (Winner advances to LDS)                                       Team #3 (Winner advances to LDS)

Team #4 (Loser goes home)                                                  Team #4 (Loser goes home)

Team #5 (Winner advances to LDS)                                       Team #5 (Winner advances to LDS)

Team #6 (Loser goes home)                                                  Team #6 (Loser goes home) 

Italics: Teams play in Wild Card Series (best-of-three) 

Essentially you would have your usual three division winners and now three wild card winners instead of a solo wild card team from each league. The top two teams from each league, if you were translating to this season, Rays and Yankees in the American League and let’s say Phillies and Reds in the National League would get a “bye” for the first round of the playoffs. 

This extra rest adds incentive to play well in the regular season and finish with a better record. This can be seen as one reason teams rarely reach 100 wins in a season mainly because the All-Star game awarding home-field advantage to the winner. Teams usually rest their players down the stretch once they clinch a spot and that’s what eliminates the triple-digit wins from the standings. 

Beyond the top two teams from each league, you have a pair of “Wild Card Series” games in each league. In order to keep the postseason within the month of October, the “Wild Card Series” should only be a best-of-three format. After it’s said and done, the best team from both leagues faces the lowest seeded team (team with lowest record) and vice-versa with the other two teams in both leagues.

In other words, the postseason would revert back to its original format with the LDS (League Division Series) in a best-of-five and a LCS (League Championship Series) in a best-of-seven. The World Series would be the grand finale to a baseball season in its usual best-of-seven format. 

In using this formula for the National League we would see the likes of the Braves, Reds, Padres, Phillies, Rockies, and Giants all in the playoffs this season. Now this would certainly take away from the luster of making it into the playoffs but it would make for an exciting run to see who can avoid the “Wild Card Series” and have a bye to start off instead. Additionally, more teams would be involved in the playoff mix such as the Cardinals or Marlins although both are further back than the rest of the pack this season. 

In the American League, in addition to the Red Sox and White Sox, a team like the Blue Jays or Athletics could be in the mix. They’re records may not be approximate to Boston and Chicago but it would be better if they knew there were more spots up for grabs. 

The reality is that September is seen a trial period for the grand majority of Major League teams. Rosters expand to 40 players and you have an array of players make their debut or essentially try out for a spot next season. It takes away from having teams go all out at the end versus just laying low and parking your season in. Baseball needs more markets involved while it tries to stay afloat against the National Football League in its final weeks. Having six teams in each league make it to the postseason would give more teams hope they can be in the Fall Classic. Since the league doesn’t have a salary cap it makes it hard for low market franchises to ever dream about October, yes, Pirates, Royals, and Nationals I’m talking to you and I hope Major League Baseball is listening too. 

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The Boston Red Sox are not your garden variety “drop dead and stay dead” team late in the season, at least not in the Tito Francona era. 

Bizarre occurrences have a certain fondness of popping up in September heading into October months.

Terry Francona merits an insane measure of praise for the Red Sox preservation of a potential playoff run, but plugging the young farm hands into the everyday lineup is only half of the equation.  Stepping up and taking full advantage in producing in the lineup is a completely difficult task to ask out of green talent fresh off the farm.

So far so good; do the best you can with what you have to work with.

Boston’s minor league system can go toe-to-toe, maybe even mowing down all other farm systems in the majors period.

Twenty-two games remain on the Boston Red Sox regular season schedule.  Following last night’s 11-5 five home run-filled outburst versus the AL Wild Card-leading Rays, Boston climbed to within 6 ½ games of Tampa Bay.  Stacking on, Boston it’s reclaimed a half game lead over the frequently shifting Chicago White Sox.

With the prospect of piecing together a last gasp run, the Boston Red Sox margin for error nears zero, but a sense of urgency singed in a usual suspect leaves a certain “what if” in the minds of other playoff contenders.

Stranger things have happened in the past.

Shortstop Marco Scutaro is currently gutting out an excruciating rotator cuff injury while sustaining the most consistency in Red Sox hitters outside of Adrian Beltre.  Scutaro (9,10) homered twice piling on in last night’s come from behind victory in the rubber game against division rival Tampa Bay.

Terry Francona’s offense carries on their torrid tempo marching in the run production parade with help from the white hot Victor Martinez.  David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, and Adrian follow V-Mart in a resurgent hitting practicum as of late.      

Boston’s obvious ache keeping them from gaining precious ground is the horrendous performance of their bullpen. 

Analysts and other writers have repeatedly mentioned the demeanor of the formally unfailing execution of free spirit closer Jonathan Papelbon, described as checking out.

Sadly, they may perhaps hit the nail on the head.  However, dealing Manny Delcarmen to the Colorado Rockies patches a gaping hole in a swiftly leaking setup man setting.  

Do you really see the Tampa Bay Rays overtaking the New York Yankees for good to win the American League East crown?

No, not when Yankee hitters have an addiction to dead of the ninth inning dramatics.

Until that third out is recorded, disregard the assumption the Yankees are done from game to game.  The Yankees will hold on to win the American League East easier than most think.  There’s too much fire power and clutch play despite the next gear the Rays have hit up to this point.

Major League Baseball’s postseason fires out its first pitch on October 6.

Not much time left.

The question isn’t, “Do the Red Sox possess the intestinal fortitude to survive the final stretch gauntlet?”

Quite the contrary.

Does time permit the Red Sox from digging deep into their innermost section of the intestinal track to maintain the fraught excavation it takes to make the run.  

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