Kuzul

Any discerning Red Sox fan checking in with Gordon Edes’ work on ESPNBoston.com was probably surprised to read that the “club is prepared to pick up” their $12.5 million option on David Ortiz.

For at least the past two years, that option has seemed rather expensive given the 34-year-old designated hitter’s early struggles over two consecutive seasons. Despite Ortiz’ repeated resurgences, many expected the Red Sox to decline that option in favor of a more affordable two-year deal. However, the conventional thinking may have focused too much on the option’s financial cost and not enough on its duration.

That Theo Epstein may be inclined to exercise Ortiz’ option indicates he might be more concerned with roster flexibility than cost control. For an organization whose pockets are as deep as the Red Sox’, such priorities seem spot on.

Red Sox Nation can hardly forget Ortiz’ .143 average during May 2009 and April 2010. For two seasons, Ortiz has been booed early and often and generally considered washed up before going on a tear and finishing strong as ever. In 2009, the four-time Silver Slugger failed to homer until May, but he subsequently launched 28 bombs and ended the season with 99 RBI and a 794 OPS. To date in 2010, Ortiz has followed up a weak start with 28 dingers, 87 RBI, and an 893 OPS.

Sabermetrically, Ortiz hasn’t earned his keep since 2007 when he achieved $27.6 million in value. However, if Ortiz continues to produce throughout this September, he will likely again be worth his contract and then some.

All this analysis is simply to clarify Ortiz’ production and value over the short term. Ortiz has made clear that he wants to stay in Boston where he is a proven, successful commodity. Although the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko will all be available this winter, Ortiz’ long success in Boston makes him a far more attractive option for the 2011 Red Sox.

While a two or three year contract extension at a lower yearly rate might save the Red Sox a few bucks, it would tie their hands at designated hitter for the near future. What’s more, although Ortiz’ successive comeback seasons are a good sign, they offer no guarantee he’ll be able to sustain his success into his late thirties.

Exercising the option and keeping Ortiz for only one more year allows Boston the flexibility to offer a Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez the kind of long-term, mammoth contract they will surely demand.

As surprising as Edes’ information seems at first glance, it all makes perfect sense for the 2011 Red Sox and beyond.

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The Steroid Era has officially left its mark in professional sports while tarnishing the reputation of America’s pastime.

With the recent indictment of legendary hurler Roger Clemens, the next generation will be very confused about which players to look up to.

Players like Roger Clemens have forced parents to lie to their Little Leaguers and young baseball stars by telling them their favorite players are stand-up citizens.

Steroids and PEDs (Performance-Enhancing Drugs) leave fans with a bitter taste in their mouths. Are there any true heroes left? What role models will our children have in the realm of professional sports?

Here are 10 of 10 of the saddest stories of the steroid era in professional baseball, and the destructive wake they have left behind. 

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The Steroid Era has been around pretty much since the early nineties, a span of about nearly 20 years. With a grueling 162 game regular season plus postseason play, it adds up to playing nearly 200 baseball games if you want to go ahead and count Spring Training. 

The contract status, fatigue and desire to stay on a big-league roster are all reasons why players, even the best ones, have used performance-enhancing drugs to stay on the field and perform at a high level. It has affected baseball’s “greats” and it certainly has tainted the game of baseball, their game, and their Hall of Fame status in Cooperstown, New York.

The big question is whether any suspected user or player linked to the steroid era will make it into the Hall of Fame. Is it fair to perhaps not vote in a borderline hall of famer like Chipper Jones than an Alex Rodriguez? Chipper Jones will make it because he was clean during a tainted era of baseball and players such as Jim Thome and Frank Thomas get a bonus for not going to the dark side of baseball and staying clean while achieving less than perfect Hall of Fame numbers. 

So what about the players such as Barry Bonds, Andy Pettitte, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGuire, and of course Roger Clemens? What are their chances of getting in at all and when will they get in? Find out…

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Adrian Beltre has been absolutely sensational for the Boston Red Sox this year. That’s the thing though; it’s been one sensational year. Beltre’s track record says he will never have a batting average over .300 or an OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) over .900 ever again.

With an on base percentage of .366, Beltre hasn’t been on base this much since 2004 when he had an OBP of .388. His 162 game average is .328. As recently as 2009, Beltre was on base at a clip of .304. He has also had an OPS lower than .800 nine times in his thirteen year career.

Can the Red Sox really count on Beltre to produce this much next year? Quite frankly, the reason he signed here in the first place for such a low salary was to set himself up for a long-term deal at age 31. By rewarding him with an extension, the Sox would be giving him the chance to stop working hard.

The last time Adrian Beltre signed a long-term deal was in 2005. He signed a five-year, $64 million deal with the Seattle Mariners after a career year in which he hit 48 home runs with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2004. Looks like the Dodgers made the right decision to let him walk.

That’s exactly the approach the Red Sox need to take. Beltre’s track record speaks for itself. Have a monstrous season, get paid, stop working hard. After 2004, he was supposed to be in the prime of his career at age 26. Instead, he hit .255 with an OPS of .716 and had just 19 home runs in 156 games.

Beltre’s defensive prowess has also been grossly exaggerated. He leads all American League third basemen with 16 errors and it isn’t the first time he’s led the league in errors. Beltre did the same thing in 2007. Somehow he won one of his two gold gloves that year.

Don’t get me wrong. I love Adrian Beltre for everything he’s done this year for the Red Sox. He’s a very good hitter but his motivation has to be a question moving forward. It appears that he only plays well when there’s money on the line. An extension would also leave the Sox with little flexibility in the offseason when Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder will likely hit the trade market. Kevin Youkilis could just slide over to third base if the Sox are able to find a power hitting first baseman.

It’s simple: Pay Adrian Beltre and you will pay. Just ask Seattle.

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The answer is absolutely not.

The Bleacher Report editorial staff asked me my opinion of the designated hitter. Do guys like Vladimir Guerrero of the Texas Rangers and David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox help the game, or is their specialization bad for baseball? I consider myself a baseball purist (I dislike artificial turf, 12-man pitching staffs, innings limits, pitch counts, and the Wild Card) but I do like the DH.

Certain hitters in 2010, such as Ortiz and Guerrero, were thought to have been done as major league hitters. The Angels made the hasty decision to believe Hideki Matusi’s heroics in the 2009 World Series would translate over to 2010. The Halos signed him instead of re-signing Vlad.

However, Guerrero and Ortiz have had a resurgence in 2010 and are big reasons why their teams are in playoff contention. If there were no DH, then these players would likely have not had the same type seasons, if they were playing at all.

Since the April 6 game in 1973 when Ron Blomberg of the New York Yankees was the first ever DH to have a plate appearance, this position has allowed many players to further their careers in the comfy confines of the “half player.” 

Those early days included DHs like Orlando Cepeda (who could have been the first DH), Frank Robinson of the California Angels, Tony Oliva of the Minnesota Twins, Billy Williams of the Oakland A’s, Harmon Killebrew of the Kansas City Royals, and Hank Aaron of the Milwaukee Brewers.

These players were all former 1960s hitting stars (most are Hall of Famers) who were near the end of their careers, but while slower in the field, could still be productive with the bat.

For instance, Robinson hit 30 home runs in 1973 as DH, and Oliva, who was often injured and had terrible knees, extended his career by a few years.

The game at that time was not in a boom period. Pitching dominated. Runs were at a premium, and the AL owners (who voted 8 to 4 in favor of the DH), wanted to boost run production and attendance. It was the second time within the last five years that baseball made rules changes for improved run production.

After the 1968 season, affectionately called the Year of the Pitcher, the height of the mound was lowered from 15 inches to 10 inches.

And young fans (such as myself at the time) were able to see big time former stars (such as all-time home run king Aaron), able to still play baseball. We wanted to see Aaron hit. Most of these DHs still played the field a little bit, too, but probably would not have a roster spot and forced into retirement if the DH were not in effect.

In 1973, several young players also got the opportunity for more early career at bats. Oscar Gamble (23) of the Cleveland Indians likely had his career kick-started a little earlier with the help of the DH. Even though Gamble already had major league time accumulated, the increased frequency of his plate appearances were the result of the DH. Others, like Carlos May and Hal McRae, played more often because of the DH position.

The DH has now evolved into not just a full-time position, but also a rotating spot in the lineup. For example, the New York Yankees regularly give one of their position players a “half day off” by letting them DH in a game to give them a break.

This is another example of what baseball has always loved, seeing the big stars play more often. Who wants to go to their first baseball game (a day game following a night contest) and not see Alex Rodriguez or Vlad Guerrero in the game? The DH spot allows for this star player to still play.

The great Joe DiMaggio retired early because he wasn’t at his best in 1951, his last season. DiMaggio primarily meant his play in the field. If the DH weres present and in full swing in 1952, DiMaggio could have still had a few more productive seasons with the bat while a young Mickey Mantle assumed full-time duties in center field.

And maybe a few more young fans today would have been able to say they once saw Joe DiMaggio play for the Yankees. 

This is similar to the All-Star Game played every year. It does not matter how good Alex Gonzalez played for Toronto in the first half, the fans want to see Derek Jeter start at shortstop. If some National League first baseman were having a “career year” in the first half, sorry Charlie, but Phat Albert is playing at the first sack.

Since the game (and people’s jobs) are so determined by wins and losses, if an aging DH is not producing, he likely will not keep his jobs. That is why managers with not a whole lot of tenure will only play guys who are productive, not being able to afford to sit on a certain player.

Guys like Harold Baines, Hal McRae, Edgar Martinez, and Paul Molitor all succeeded at the DH position because they were still productive. Frank Thomas was the same way, and when he stopped hitting, he was “retired.”

Of that group, only Molitor is currently in the Hall of Fame, although Thomas will probably get in quickly. Pushes for Baines and Martinez (although eligible only one season thus far), have fallen on voters’ deaf ears. While Martinez still may have that Bert Blyleven push if he continues to struggle, it shows that only the “best of the best” at any postion will make the hallowed Hall.

It is not like a bunch of aging veterans are hanging on to accumulate Hall-ready numbers. Even if Ortiz produces a year of two more, he is not Hall-worthy, while Guerrero probably would be as he was a better all-around player for his entire career.

The game is about winning and only the good players will play.

Ask former Seattle Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu how quickly things can change when your team does not play well. Where Wakamatsu had not built up any “winning tenure,” a manager like Boston’s Terry Francona can weather the David Ortiz storm a little longer, hoping he breaks out of his early season malaise. But most managers need to win now.

And it was good for the game overall to see Big Papi become a threat once again, as it was for Vlad Geurrero. Two stars who the fans want to see, not because they are “padding their stats” but because they are productive players who are helping their teams win games now.

Don’t the Angels wished they had Vlad back this season?

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David Ortiz struck out three more times yesterday, reminding us that he has truly become an all-or-nothing hitter. 

Ortiz now has 109 whiffs in 340 at-bats this season, which means he’s striking out a whopping 32 percent of the time.

The Boston DH’s strikeout total is third highest in the AL, behind Austin Jackson (114) and Carlos Pena (111). For the record, the latter two are both position players who make an impact defensively, at least mitigating some of the impact of their frequent strike outs.

However, Ortiz’s 24 homers are fourth in the AL and tied for 10th best in baseball. And his 73 RBI are 10th in the AL and 16th in baseball.

The Red Sox have a big decision to make with Ortiz this winter. Do they pick up the $12.5 million option on his contract, which would pay him about twice what other DHs around the league are making?

Or do they try to renegotiate the deal to two years at roughly the same price? 

Would Ortiz even be willing to accept the same dollars for two years instead of one?

Despite his power resurgence, Ortiz is only hitting .259 this season, and just .209 against lefties.

In previous years, he was considered a one dimensional player because he couldn’t field. Now he’s even more one-dimensional because he can only hit for power. 

Ortiz has just 88 hits this season, putting him on track for less than 120 for the entire year. That’s a paltry sum. During his peak years with the Red Sox (2004-2007), Ortiz averaged 174 hits a year. 

Ortiz is an important figure in the Red Sox’ success this decade. A member of two World Series winners, he has become the face of the franchise and is a truly beloved figure throughout New England. 

In fact, Ortiz is one of the few players universally loved throughout baseball. Remember how his peers cheered for him during the Home Run Derby in Anaheim last month? 

Ortiz is one of baseball’s goodwill ambassadors. He is a smiling, lovable character that fans and players alike seem to gravitate toward and root for.

Without question, Big Papi’s place in Red Sox history is secure; his 283 homers with the club are fifth best all time. If Ortiz returns to the team next season, he will join Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice and Dwight Evans as the only Red Sox players with 300 home runs. That’s some pretty nice company. 

And, with 903 RBI as a Red Sox, he could become just the sixth player to drive in 1,000 runs with the team (Yastrzemski, Williams, Rice, Evans and Doerr).

In addition, with 341 career homers (as a member of the Twins and Red Sox), Ortiz has an outside shot at 400 for his career. Assuming he hits 10 more this season (which is a conservative estimate), Ortiz would need to average about 25 homers over the next two years to reach the mark.

The question is whether he will get a chance to do it with the Red Sox. 

A player like Adam Dunn may be a far more attractive alternative to the Red Sox. Since 2004, only Albert Pujols (279) has more homers than Dunn (272).

At 30 years of age, Dunn is younger than the 34-year-old Ortiz, and he is a better, more consistent run producer. Dunn also offers more versatility in that he can play first base and the corner outfield positions, though not particularly well. Right field at Fenway could be a disaster for the 6’6″, 285 pound behemoth. 

But Dunn has said he is willing to DH, and the Red Sox would presumably use him in that capacity the vast majority of the time. However, his versatility is a great asset.

Going forward, the best DH for the Red Sox is one that offers them the versatility of being able to field a position, as well as hit for power, drive in runs, and get on base. At this point, Ortiz doesn’t adequately fulfill all of those objectives.

Indeed, Ortiz can still get draw a walk; his 61 free passes are fifth best in the AL and are tied for 11th in baseball. But, due to his declining average, Ortiz’s on-base percentage has suffered in recent years.

In his first five seasons in Boston, Ortiz batted .302. But those days are now long gone. Over the past three seasons, Ortiz is batting just .254. 

Defensive shortcomings aside, with his advancing age, declining batting average, and high strikeout totals, Ortiz isn’t the same player he was a few years ago when he among the game’s most potent offensive forces. 

As a result, free agency won’t offer as many options as it once would have. There is no question that Ortiz is suited only for the American League.

For his part, the affable Red Sox star says he would like to finish his career with the club. 

“I’m going to tell you, I ain’t going nowhere,” Ortiz said last month, in reference to his contract status.

Ortiz isn’t just thinking about his option-year either; he says he wants an extension. However, if he intends to stay, it will be on the Red Sox terms.

The only question at this point is whether he’s willing to play two seasons for essentially the price of one. The Red Sox will almost certainly decline his 2011 option and seek to renegotiate the base price down, perhaps seeking to fill it with performance incentives instead. 

Will Ortiz’s ego get in the way of such a decision?

There is no doubt that Ortiz is heavily invested in the local community, which could impact his decision. Aside from his numerous charitable works, he is a co-owner of the recently opened Big Papi’s Grill in Framingham, MA.

We’ll soon find out how much he wants to remain a member of the Red Sox, and if the team believes there are better alternatives available this offseason.

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He was over the hill. He couldn’t hit without Manny behind him. He’s older than he lets on. He was on steroids. The injuries got to him. Even some Fenway Faithful began calling him “Big Pop-up.” Then, all of a sudden, David Ortiz started to hit again. The past two years have been the toughest in his tenure in Boston, which may be coming to an end. 

On what was a seemingly routine August night in Baltimore in 2008, Red Sox DH David Ortiz dug in to the box. He fouled off an outside fastball, then grabbed his right hand in agony.

In a freak injury on a swing Red Sox fans have seen a thousand times, David tore the sheath tendon off his right hand. What would follow for Ortiz, nobody could have predicted. Out for the year, David watched as his banged up teammates fell one win short of another World Series appearance.

The off-season went by relatively quietly, as the front office still felt they had more than enough talent to put another banner up at Fenway. The season did not start well for Ortiz, who hit an abysmal .185 with one HR through May.

On top of that, reports began to surface of Ortiz failing a drug test in 2004. Red Sox fans saw a side of him that success had previously protected him from. This was not the fun-loving jokester of the past; this was a dejected, vulnerable David Ortiz.

David actually was able to pick up his production for the remainder of the season, finishing with 28 HR and 99 RBI but hitting just .238 in the process. This light resurgence gave some of “The Nation” hope going into this season.

That washed away in a hurry after a .143 April with just four RBI ended in Ortiz being pinch-hit for, the first such occurrence in his tenure. It appeared to be the end of the road for Boston’s once most beloved sports hero.

He was given another chance by skipper Terry “Tito” Francona, who went through similar pressure to make a change when Dustin Pedroia started slowly in 2007. Ortiz has not disappointed. Since May 1, he has looked like the “Papi” of old, hitting .295 with 22 HR and 68 RBI. He went through tremendous struggles and has emerged as big of a threat as ever.

However, David now faces a new challenge, one that has nothing to do with his plate performance: uncertainty. I find it extremely unlikely that Theo Epstein and Red Sox management decide to pick up Ortiz’s $12.5 million option for 2011. Add that to Victor Martinez ($7.7 million), Adrian Beltre ($10 million), Mike Lowell ($12.5 million), and Julio Lugo ($9 million) all coming off the books after this season as well, the Sox are far more likely to re-invest that money into bringing back Beltre and Martinez at a higher price, allowing Ortiz to walk.

The hard truth of the matter is, as they say, money talks and BS walks. Ortiz is not coming back for anything close to $12.5 million, but given his production this season, he has every right to feel he’s worth it. It is pretty clear by their recent history that the Sox will either bring back Beltre at 3B and Martinez at DH and search for a defensive catcher. Another option is they move Youkilis to third, have Martinez play first, DH J.D. Drew, and look for a catcher and a speedy OF bat (Carl Crawford). 

The reaction to these moves will likely be unpopular as Ortiz is the most beloved player on the team and has certainly produced this year. However, this is the regime that let Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez, and Johnny Damon walk. They certainly are not afraid to do the same with Ortiz. Red Sox Nation will miss Ortiz dearly, but another World Series win would do a lot to accelerate the grieving process.

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It was a battle of the Big Daddies on Friday night at Fenway Park in Boston.

Detroit’s animated closer Jose Valverde, or Papa Grande as he’s known to Tigers fans, went head-to-head with Red Sox heavy-hitter David Ortiz, who is known as Big Papi in Beantown.

Down 6-1, Ortiz cut Boston’s five-run deficit with one swing with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning. Detroit was desperately clinging to its 6-5 lead, and Tigers fans around the country collectively sighed.

But Tigers manager Jim Leyland didn’t pull Valverde, who has 22 saves and 50 strikeouts this season. Leyland let Valverde work himself out his his Todd Jones roller coaster-esque moment.

And it proved to be the smart move, but it wasn’t pretty by any means.

The bags were full again in the ninth, this time for Boston’s 15-year veteran center fielder Mike Cameron.

Cameron found himself in a favorable 3-1 count with two outs, and was swinging for the fences. After fouling off two straight pitches, Cameron was frozen by Valverde’s splitter at the knees. Detroit squeaked by with a 6-5 victory.

As usual, Valverde celebrated his team’s triumph, this time in a rubber-pounding frenzy. The win marked the Tigers’ first since their 6-5 effort over the Toronto Blue Jays on July 25. Detroit is now 4-6 in its last 10 games, and will face the Red Sox at 4:10 p.m. Saturday.

For those who opposed the deal which sent Single-A West Michigan White Caps pitcher Giovanni Soto to the Cleveland Indians for nine-year veteran Jhonny Peralta, you may want to reconsider.

For the first time since Billy McMillon in 2000, a Tiger hit two home runs in his debut.

During his post-game interview, Peralta said he was happy to have contributed so early. He was 3-for-4 with three RBI.

Rookie sensation Brennan Boesch’s recent lack of hitting has raised concerns. Boesch went 1-for-5 with a single of John Lester, but has dipped below .300 for the first time in his young big-league career. He now sits at .299.

Toledo Mud Hens call-up Will Rhymes has impressed with the valiant effort he has given the big club so far. The scrappy Rhymes was aggressive on the base paths, and went 2-for-5.

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The first half of the 2010 MLB regular season was like stepping into a 1990’s time warp – with usual bottom-feeding teams such as the Cincinatti Reds, Texas Rangers and San Diego Padres leading their respective divisions – but the second half promises to bring a dose of reality back to the normal MLB landscape.  However, it is possible that one of those teams can make a run deep into the playoffs and, if everything goes as planned, should be playing in late October.  Just one of the many reasons why the conclusion of the 2010 MLB regular season guarantees to be one of the most exciting in recent years. 

My top 5 reasons for you to be excited about what is yet to come —

(5)  SOMEONE REALLY MIGHT WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN………….

Already this has been a crazy year of statistics and record breaking games.  Despite the fact that most have been dominated by pitchers with ERA’s sub-3 and perfect games being thrown (2 according the MLB HOF, but in reality we all know 3!) the possibility of having the first legitimate triple-crown batting winner since Carl Yasztrzemski did it for the Boston Red Sox (all the way back in 1967 with a .326 AVG, 44 HR and 121 RBI) truly does exist.

In the past few years, the great Albert Pujols has briefly flirted with achieving the feat.  So far it has been another strong showing for Pujols in the 1st-half of the season and he is once again a solid contender as a triple-crown candidate.  But this season, there are at least four others that have a good chance of pulling off history with the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero and Joey Votto (all currently ranking in the top 10 in all 3 najor offensive categories respectively). 

— A look at their numbers:

Albert Pujols – StL (.311 7th, 21 2nd, 64 t-4th)

Miguel Cabrera – DET (.346 2nd, 22 t-2nd, 7 1st)

Vladimir Guerrero – Tex (.325 7th, 20 t-4th, 76 2nd)

Josh Hamilton – Tex (.347 1st, 22 t-2nd, 65 4th)

Joey Votto – Cin (.314 5th, 22 t-1st, 60 t-8th)

— Some other possible contenders:

Justin Morneau – Min (.345 3rd, 18 t-8th, 59 t-14th)

Ryan Howard – Phi (.297 17th, 20 t-5th, 71 1st)

Corey Hart – Mil (.293 20th, 22 t-1st, 66 2nd)

** On a side note for trivia buffs – the triple crown is achieved with a little more frequency for pitchers.  The last triple crown winner for a pitcher was Jake Peavy for the Padres in 2007, but the list includes the likes of Sandy Koufax (3x), Roger Clemens (2x), Dwight Gooden, Randy Johnson – not too mention, Cy Young, Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson among others.

(4) ANOTHER PERFECT GAME WILL HAPPEN……..

Alright, so I know I may as well be predicting that someone will be hit with lightning as predicting yet another perfect game to be thrown this season (the odds are something like 2 million to one) but I really feel it in my bones that another el perfecto is coming on the horizon.  Don’t all good things come in 3’s anyway?  We had Braden, Halladay and almost-Gallaraga (he was royally screwed by the way, but a class act all the way).  So in order for this things in 3 theory to work out, we need another brilliant pitching performance.

Are you reading this Stephen Strasburg??

(3) THE CONTINUANCE OF ROOKIE STAR POWER……………..

Everyone and their momma has heard the name Stephen Strasburg.  He is the second coming it would seem, at least in terms of MLB pitching prospects. The last time I can really remember that much hype for a rookie in MLB, had to have been when Ken Griffey, Jr. was a rookie in the league.  However, with Strasburg the hype is at a whole other level – a King James ‘Decision’ special type of level if you will.  With major media at every minor league appearance he made, a special countdown press conference weeks in advance to announce his arrival, and even a baseball card that was recently priced as high as $500,00 on an Ebay auction – this Strasburg kid has had nothing but high expectations to live up to.  And it appears he may be the real deal……..

So far it looks as if Stephen Strasburg may be worth all of the hype and anticipation.  Since being called up to the majors, the kid has been superbly brilliant for a horribly subpar Washington Nationals team.  He has simply broken records with massive strikeout totals and has been totally dominant in virtually every facet.  He has been beyond impressive and his stats reflect that fact.  In 8 career starts, Strasburg is currently 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA.  Even more impressively, he has struck out 68 batters in just under 49 innings pitched, while only allowing 14 BB.  He holds batters to just .203 overall and carries a WHIP barely over 1.  Pure dominance.

But the field is incredibly tough this year and candidates such as Ja son Heyward and Buster Posey are serious threats.  Heyward was a hands down candidate for ROY when he got off to a blazing start for the Braves, even winning the NL Rookie of the Month honors, but lately he has cooled considerably.  Perhaps he is nursing lingering effects from some early season dings to his body, but he may not even receive a 1st place vote if he considers at his current clip.  Heyward has been a huge plus and a nice cog for a resurgent Braves team, but his stats aren’t as strong as his presence truly presents (.247, 11 HR, 45 RBI).

Buster Posey has been a huge surprise for the equally surprising Giants and definitely deserves a look at when it comes time to cast ROY ballots.  He is limited in games played with 40 so far, but his .352 AVG, 7 HR, 26 RBI production merits consideration.  If he continues at that pace, not only is this kid a star, but if he can help the Giants find their way to the playoffs, he may still the NL ROY for 2010.

Other NL rookie surprises not to be overlooked but some not quite ROY material yet:

Tyler Colvin – CHC (.262, 12 HR, 32 RBI, 31 R, 82 GP)

Mike Leake – CIN (17 GS, 6-1, 3.53 ERA, 70 K in 109.2 IP, 1.40 WHIP)

Ike Davis – NYM (.252, 11 HR, 40 RBI through 77 GP)

Mike Stanton – FLA (.225, 5 HR, 20 RBI through 29 GP)

The AL ROY race looks a little more interesting, but it will really be a two-man battle at most. Brennan Boesch may have the race all wrapped up with the monster stats he has put up for the Detroit Tigers so far this season.  This kid is a beast.  All he does is produce.  Through 66 GP, he has hammered the ball with stats of .336, 12 HR, 50 RBI (247 AB’s, 83 H, 19 2B, 3 3B and an astounding .974 OPS).  About as close to a lock as you are going to get, well besides Strasburg of course.

Neftali Feliz has been outstanding so far this season and currently poses a serious challenge to Boesch’s ROY aspirations.  And if he leads Texas to *spoiler alert* what I envision them doing this season, and postseason, this kid should be a serious contender for the AL ROY award.  So far this season, Feliz has been solid, commandering a respectable 3.72 ERA through 40 GP and converting 23 of 25 save opportunities for the first place Texas Rangers.

Austin Jackson has been an impact presence within the Tigers lineup so far this year as well.  Like Heyward, and his teammate Boesch, he too has won a Rookie of the Month award (for the month of April in AL) and has also cooled considerably as of late.  He has managed to stay above .300 through 79 GP, hitting .303,  and he has 15 SB out of 18 attempts.  Looking even further, he has produced some pretty impressive stats.  Through 317 AB’s, he has 96 H, 21 2B, 5 3B, 1 HR, 20 RBI and 53 R. 

Other AL rookie surprises not to be overlooked but some not quite ROY material yet:

Carlos Santana – CLE (.278, 5 HR, 17 RBI in 30 GP)

Justin Smoak – SEA (.208, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 2 teams, 74 GP)

(2) WHAT GOES UP, MUST COME DOWN.  SORRY CHW, SD, CIN, ATL…….

That’s right, I said it.  Well, I wrote it anyway.  Although each of these teams have put up legitimate fights to earn their respective division leads, but for some reason it really seems as if all will end up wanting once October baseball rolls around. 

Let’s start with the White Sox.  Without question, CHW is currently the hottest team in MLB.  They were 25-5 in their last 30 GP, before splitting the first two games of a 4 game series with Minnesota in Minneapolis.  This team is blazing hot.  On June 8th, they were in 3rd place, 9 1/2 games back.  Through July 16, they sit atop the AL Central by 1 game.  It has been a remarkable turnaround.  But short lived…… 

The CHW lineup is known to go into tailspin slumps and their bats will fizzle for a decent stretch of games, causing them to lose ground to the very tough Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins.  The injury to Jake Peavy will hurt considerably as well, and that pitching staff will again fall short with the run support they receive.

Now to San Diego.  This is a tough one.  Every time I count this team out, they respond by getting stellar pitching and scoring runs.  This team looks and seems unfadeable.  But they are indeed fadeable and it is going to begin to show.  The stifled sneeze of Latos may have been the first blow in a series of blows to this franchise’s division title hopes.  Mat Latos has been the Padres ace in the hole, going 10-4 with a 2.45 ERA through 17 GS.  Even more impressive is his 0.966 WHIP in 2010 and his 99 K’s in 106 2/3 IP.  But the sneeze has put him on the 15-day DL. 

I hate to say it, but that was also the beginning of the Padres playoff run ultimately going on the DL.  They simply don’t have enough in the lineup to keep up with a team such as the LAD.  And despite the dominance of their pitching and the potential return of both Latos and Chris Young from surgery, it is hard to expect much more from such a young pitcher (Latos) and one returning from serious injury (Young).  The Padres have hung strong so far and currently hold a 3 game lead, but in reality, it has merely been a good run.

In Cincinatti, the team has whipped up Reds fans into a frenzy.  Finally, one of their crop of would-be MLB superstars has panned out into a pretty decent group major league wise.  CIN is currently 9 games above .500 and they are clinging to a 1/2 game lead over STL in the NL Central. 

Votto, Phillips, Leake, Cueto — these are just a few of the budding superstars on this young team.  Personal plea to the CIN management department, hang on to these kids.  This is not going to be your year and we all know it.  Be patient.  This is a very good young team.  But STL is built to win.  And STL will win…..

Atlanta is the toughest to call.  They have played well.  They have been hot and dominant and have simply been winning game after game, currently holding a 5 game lead over NYM and 5 1/2 game lead over PHI.  They look good.  The lineup is strong.  The pitching staff is young and strong.  But Jair Jurrjens is back and apparently healthy and the pitching staff should only get stronger.  Add to the fact that this is Bobby Cox’s last year and fate is definitely on their side.  But again, I just don’t like it.

PHI not in the playoffs?  I just can’t see it.  And I see a lot of surprise teams, like potentially even SFG making the playoffs in the wild card slot.  It’s possible.  So PHI would have to win the division outright perhaps and I see ATL potentially stumbling.  Sorry, I just do.  But again, that is a toughie……..

(1) TEXAS RANGERS WILL MAKE THE ALCS……..

That’s right, I said it again.  And if they can get past NYY somehow, they could be a surprise World Series contender.  Texas is currently a very impressive 52-38 and sits atop the AL West by 4 1/2 games over LAA.  Obviously the pickup of Cliff Lee was huge at the trade deadline.  He is the first premium, top notch, pitcher ever added to their inherently struggling rotation and immediately delivers a needed credibility for them to be a legitimate contender.

Don’t get me wrong, their pitching staff is still incredibly suspect after Lee.  Colby Lewis currently leads the team with a 9-5 record and has a respectable 3.42 ERA.  CJ Wilson is a respectable 7-5 with a 3.35 ERA.  Tommy Hunter is an intriguing prospect however, and has started the season off with a bang – going 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA through 8 starts.  Add in Cliff Lee, and there is a possibility for potential……..

But the lineup is huge!  Vladimir will end the season as AL MVP.  You heard it here first.  Well, you read it anyway.  But first, here.  Vlad for MVP.  He will continue to rake the pitchers for the rest of the season, enjoying all of the help provided by his supporting cast of Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Bengie Molina — the list just goes on and on.  They have, quite arguably, the best lineup in baseball.  And that will help them secure the AL West crown and a berth in the playoffs.  Where I fully expect them to flourish……..

So there you go.  That’s the 2010 MLB second half in a nutshell.  Well, from my nutshell anyway.  At least that’s the way I see it.  VLAD for MVP!!

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As the Red Sox No. 1 fan I was obviously enthused to watch as David Ortiz became the first member of the Boston Red Sox to win the Home Run Derby last night; but, truth be told, I was more delighted the rest of the world got to see the vintage “Big Papi” many of us have come to love over the last several years.Sadly, that guy was missing early this year as David struggled for the second straight spring and many supposed fans and baseball writers called for him to be exiled from Boston.

But the vintage Papi started to emerge again by early-June, as his baseball fortunes turned and the sting of the early-season criticism abated. He was there last night as he paraded along the third base line—joking, laughing, hugging, and flashing that now-famous Ortiz smile throughout the Derby. His personality is infectious. And while the night started with Angels fans booing him during the player introductions (alas, the bitterness over the Red Sox post-season dominance of their hometown Angels spilled over into the Home Run Derby), he had won most of them over by the time the competition had come to its conclusion. Most fans gave him a rousing ovation at the end of the night.

And why not?

Ortiz put on a heckuva show throughout the night… and interviewed by ESPN at the end of it all he dedicated his performance to the fans and to his recently departed friend – former big league pitcher Jose Lima.

I know there are “haters” out there who make a habit of bashing Ortiz, but I just don’t get it. I love the guy and earnestly believe that 99.8% of baseball fans would love him, too, if he wore their favorite team’s uniform. (NOTE: Something that may happen if the Red Sox don’t get him signed to a contract extension pretty soon)

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The Derby was not the slugger-studded affair it used to be. While it is still an event, it is hard to get overly enthused by the likes of Chris Young and Nick Swisher (with apologies to the players and the Diamondbacks and Yankees fans who may read this piece). I’d have preferred to see Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez in the competition, but, it is what it is. And while there were no titanic blasts like those of Mark McGwire or extraordinary displays like those of Bobby Abreu or Josh Hamilton, the Derby was still an event not to be missed.

The night started off underwhelmingly, as a couple of non-traditional Derby-types struggled to hit the long ball. Young (the pre-competition favorite of ESPN analyst John Kruk) hit one homer, and Toronto Blue Jays OF Vernon Wells socked just two. After a commercial break, Brewers OF Corey Hart got the attention of the audience by hitting 13 home runs, for an average distance of 433 feet. The always jovial Swisher followed Hart with a four-spot.

The second half of the first round was a bit more entertaining, as four “traditional” sluggers stepped to the plate.

St Louis Cardinals OF Matt Holliday (who was the pre-Derby pick of two ESPN analysts) only managed to hit five home runs and failed to advance to the second round, but he hit the longest home run of the night (at 497 feet). He pulled the ball down the left field line and unfortunately for television viewers, the ESPN cameras were unable to show where the ball landed. We only understood how far it had traveled by virtue of the network’s “Tale of the Tape”.

Ortiz followed with eight bombs of his own, half of which traveled less than 400 feet, but he was just getting warmed up.

Forida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez was the final National Leaguer of the first round, and he showed he belonged with the big boys by belting nine homers, including one that traveled an impressive 476 feet.

Tigers outfielder Miguel Cabrera ended the first round by smacking seven home runs and became the final qualifier for the second round.

Although Cabrera was the lowest qualifier and should have batted first in the second round, he had been the final competitor in the first round, so Ortiz agreed to lead off the round to give Cabrera a much-needed breather. This time he resembled the hitter we have come to know and love in Boston, belting 13 home runs (all of which exceeded 400′) to establish a benchmark of 21 for the two rounds. His fourth home run of the round traveled 478′ and careened off the State Farm banner in right field.

Cabrera followed with a disappointing total of five home runs, including a 485-ft blast, that gave him a cumulative total of 12 home runs. He was therefore eliminated from further competition (as both Ortiz and Hart had tallied more home runs).

Ramirez then had the most impressive round of the night, hitting 12 home runs – half of which traveled more than 450 feet — and giving him 21 home runs to tie Ortiz for the overall lead.

That brought Hart, who had been a spectator for an hour-and-a-half, back to the plate. He disappointed the throng at Angel Stadium by going homerless in the round, becoming the first competitor to post a bagel in the second round since the format was changed back in 1995.

And so close friends Ortiz and Ramirez moved on to the final. Mentor and mentee. Ortiz had befriended Ramirez when the young shortstop was a prospect in the Red Sox farm system (Ramirez was the key piece Boston shipped to Florida in the trade in which they acquired Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell). He told the national television audience that Big Papi had been “like my dad” when he had been a part of the Red Sox organization.

Ortiz, weary from the first two rounds, still managed to put on a show for the fans in the final round, hitting 11 more home runs to take a commanding lead. By doing so, he tied former Philadelphia Phillies OF Bobby Abreu for the most home runs hit in the final round of the competition (2005). In the round, he again pelted the State Farm sign and also hit the shortest dinger of the night – a ball that barely cleared the fence down the right field line at the 341 foot mark.

Ramirez followed Ortiz with five more home runs, but was also noticeably tired. In the middle of the round, Ortiz trotted out to home plate to give his protegee a breather, handing him a bottle of Gatorade and mopping his brow with a towel. But the respite didn’t help, and the young shortstop succumbed to his friend and “papi”.

And so the night belonged to Ortiz, who was crowned the king of your 2010 Home Run Derby.

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