Tag: David Ortiz

2010 Home Run Derby: LAA Angels Stadium Less Conducive To Impressive Homers

Six participants for the 2010 Home Run Derby were announced yesterday: David Ortiz (DH, Boston), Corey Hart (OF, Milwaukee), Matt Holliday (OF, St. Louis), Miguel Cabrera (1B, Detroit), Robinson Cano (2B, New York Yankees), and Vernon Wells (OF, Toronto).

All told, it’s not a terrible lineup.  There will be two more participants announced before the Derby, but you’ve already got old-school power hitters in Cabrera and Ortiz and some new blood in Cano and Hart.

Some people dislike the Derby, but I’ve always found it to be quite enjoyable.  I love watching the raw displays of power players put on but I could also do without Chris Berman in the broadcast booth, attempting to break all world records of the use of the word “back.”

Different stadiums play differently for home runs.  Some are known as hitter havens while other suppress home runs.  Over the past four years, the Home Run Derby has been hosted in stadiums that play well for home runs.

In 2006 and 2007, in Pittsburgh and San Francisco respectively, each stadium featured a body of water within striking distance for left-handed power hitters.  The Allegheny River in Pittsburgh and the McCovey Cove in San Fran. In Pittsburgh we got quite a show with Ryan Howard and David Ortiz peppering the river.

In San Francisco, with the water closer and more easily attainable, we were denied any splash hits when all three lefties exited quietly in the first round.  Howard, Prince Fielder and Justin Morneau all failed to advance or hit any into the water in the process.  A potential dream location suddenly became quite a boring contest, as the Giants home field does not play well for right-handed power.  Vladimir Guerrero won despite posting only three home runs in the final round.

When the Derby moved to the House That Ruth Built in 2008, for Yankee Stadium’s final season, the short right field porch, distant black batter’s eye and inviting upper decks called out to sluggers as targets for long home runs.  A gap in the back wall even inspired predictions that some powerful left-handed bat could potentially hit one out of Yankee Stadium.

Then MLB announced the participants and they included four elite lefty sluggers.  Chase Utley, Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman and Josh Hamilton all participated and a buzz preceded the 2008 HR Derby like none since Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr. and Mark McGuire knocked buildings over in the late 90s.

Josh Hamilton did not disappoint.  He went on to hit 28 home runs in the first round alone, easily a Derby record.  But more impressive than the amount of homers was the way in which Hamilton hit them.  He demolished each offering from his batting-practice pitcher, not clearing the stadium, but putting balls deep into the upper deck, far back into the bleachers and off the back wall of the stadium.

It’s the most fun I’ve had watching the Home Run Derby, and Hamilton’s first round performance seems to make people forget that Justin Morneau ended up winning the Derby over Hamilton in the final round.

The Derby moved from one of the oldest and most historic Stadiums in 2008 to one of the newer venues in 2009 as it came to St. Louis’ new Busch Stadium.  A beautiful facility, Busch Stadium also offered some attractive points for batters to take aim.  

Big Mac Land presented an alluring target for right-handed batters, situated way up in the fourth deck of left field.  Attainability would be difficult, but certainly not impossible and Texas’ Nelson Cruz reached it twice in an impressive first round.  Hometown hero Albert Pujols also managed to hit a ball over the left-field bleachers and into the outfield concourses.

In the second round and the finals, Prince Fielder proved Busch Stadium was just as entertaining for left-handed sluggers as it was for right-handed ones.  He launched home runs over the bullpen, deep into the bleachers and over the grassy knoll that serves as a batter’s eye.

This year, the host stadium is Angels Stadium out in Anaheim.  Or Los Angeles.  Or California.  Or wherever they’re from.  While I’ve never been to Angels Stadium I’ve seen it on TV plenty of times and from what I’ve seen, it doesn’t strike me as a place that will play host to epic moonshots.

There’s no upper deck in the outfield, so any home run that’s hit is going to land in the bleachers or bullpen.  Down both lines is a three foot wall an inviting distance away, meaning we’ll probably get a few cheap, pop-up home runs that carry.  There is a batters eye in dead center, but, unlike the grass in St. Louis or the bleachers in New York, it’s a flat surface so any homer hit there will just bounce right off.

There is the sliver of decorative rock formations in left center field, but homers there won’t have the same allure as a homer into a river or bay.

Not every stadium is designed with exciting home run targets, that’s just the way it is. We got lucky to have four consecutive home run derbies take place in ballparks that are conducive to epic home run shots.  But with an intriguing field of players this year that features some impressive raw power, I’m sure one of the boys will come through with an impressive performance.  

Sometimes it comes from the most predictable of sources, such as Mark McGuire and Ken Griffey Jr’s displays at Fenway Park in 1999.  But other times, the most impressive man of the night is the guy you least expect, like when Bobby Abreu went off for 41 home runs at Comerica Park in 2005.

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The Best From The Nest: 2010 Mid-Season Minor League All-Star Team

So, we’re now more than halfway through the MiLB season.

And what an incredible season it has been for one of the up-and-coming leagues in American sports. Attendance has never been better, and with Strasburg-mania, and top-level prospects like Mike Stanton, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, and Jason Heyward, 2010 will be a tough season to forget.

Don’t let the graduated roster fool you though, there is still a TON of talent left in the minors, and in honor of those having tremendous seasons, it’s time to honor them, with a mid-season All-Star team.

Like most All-American teams, this one will feature eight position players, five starting pitchers and a closer.

In order to spend less time writing about Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Santana, names you most likely now know, I’m gonna keep it to players who are still currently in the minors.

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Six Red Sox Players Named To the American League All-Star Team

The fans may not have given the Red Sox much love when casting their ballots for the all-star game, but opposing players and managers- as well as Major League Baseball itself- certainly did as six Red Sox were chosen to play in the Mid-Summer Classic next week in Los Angeles.

And now Sox fans can help to make certain that another player gets to go along too, as a seventh player (1B Kevin Youkilis) is one of five non-selectees nominated in the MLB.com Final Vote.

The American League starting squad will consist of two players each from the Minnesota Twins, NY Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers, as well as one Seattle Mariner… and in spite of the fact no Red Sox player was selected to start the game, The Olde Towne Team tied the Yankees for the most players to be selected for the AL squad, with six.

Boston players so honored were C Victor Martinez (4th selection), 2B Dustin Pedroia (3rd), 3B Adrian Beltre (1st), DH David Ortiz (6th), RHP Clay Buchholz (1st) and LHP Jon Lester (1st).

Unfortunately, Martinez and Pedroia are injured and won’t be able to participate in the ballgame. They will be replaced by Texas 2B Ian Kinsler and Toronto C John Buck, respectively.

And we will learn in the next 24 hours if Clay Buchholz will share their fate, as unconfirmed reports indicate he will likely join his teammates on the disabled list sometime this week.

Red Sox fans also have the opportunity to send Youkilis to the game- which would give the Red Sox an MLB-high seven all-stars!

He is one of the five players eligible to be selected to the team by fan balloting, along with 1B Paul Konerko of the Chicago White Sox, OF Nick Swisher of the NY Yankees, OF Delmon Young of the Minnesota Twins and 3B Michael Young of the Texas Rangers.

Voting can be done exclusively at MLB.com… click here to vote for YOUK!

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Here are your 2010 all-stars… starters are in bold-faced type:

American League:

C: Joe Mauer, MIN (Victor Martinez, BOS*; John Buck, TOR)

1B: Justin Morneau, MIN (Miguel Cabrera, DET)

2B: Robinson Cano, NYY (Dustin Pedroia, BOS*; Ian Kinsler, TEX; Ty Wiggington, BAL)

3B: Evan Longoria, TB (Adrian Beltre, BOS; Alex Rodriguez, NYY)

SS: Derek Jeter, NYY (Elvis Andrus, TEX)

OF: Carl Crawford, TB; Josh Hamilton, TEX; Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (Jose Bautista, TOR; Torii Hunter, LAA; Vernon Wells, TOR)

DH: Vladimir Guerrero, TEX (David Ortiz, BOS)

SP: Clay Buchholz, BOS; Trevor Cahill, OAK; Fausto Carmona, CLE; Phil Hughes, NYY; Cliff Lee, SEA; Jon Lester, BOS; David Price, TB; and C C Sabathia, NYY

RP: Neftali Feliz, TEX; Mariano Rivera, NYY; Joakim Soria, KC; Matt Thornton, CWS; and Jose Valverde, DET

National League:

C: Yadier Molina, ST L (Brian McCann, ATL)

1B: Albert Pujols, ST L (Adrian Gonzalez, SD; Ryan Howard, PHI)

2B: Chase Utley, PHI* (Brandon Phillips, CIN; Martin Prado, ATL)

3B: David Wright, NYM (Omar Infante, ATL; Scott Rolen, CIN)

SS: Hanley Ramirez, FLA (Troy Tulowitzki, COL*; Jose Reyes, NYM)

OF: Ryan Braun, MIL; Andre Ethier, LAD; Jason Heyward, ATL (Michael Bourn, HOU; Marlon Byrd, CC; Corey Hart, MIL; Matt Holliday, ST L; and Chris Young, AZ)

SP: Chris Carpenter, ST L; Yovani Gallardo, MIL; Roy Halladay, PHI; Tim Hudson, ATL; Ubaldo Jimenez, COL: Josh Johnson, FLA; Tim Lincecum, SFG; Evan Meek, PIT; and Adam Wainright, ST L

RP: Jonathan Broxton, LAD; Matt Capps, WAS; Arthur Rhodes, CIN; and Brian Wilson, SFG

NL nominees for fans Final Vote: RHP Heath Bell, SD; OF Carlos Gonzalez, COL; 1B Joey Votto, CIN; LHP Billy Wagner, ATL; 3B Ryan Zimmerman, WAS.

* unable to participate due to injury

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And with that, there is already much discussion about the snubs from each team.

In the American League, the biggest snub was Youkilis- who has been the best player on the Red Sox thus far in 2010.

But beyond Youk, I have to admit I was surprised that LAA RHP Jered Weaver wasn’t named to the team- since he leads the league in strikeouts and the game is being played on his home field.

Also, what about Seattle righty Felix Hernandez- who is arguably one of the three or four best pitchers in the league even though his record doesn’t reflect his ability (he does, after all, play for the woeful Mariners)? Or maybe DET OF Magglio Ordinez or CWS OF Alex Rios, who finally appears to have harnessed his immense potential?

NOTE: NYY lefty C.C. Sabathia is scheduled to pitch on Sunday and, by rule, he won’t be permitted to take a spot on the AL’s active roster. While I suspect Joe Torre would prefer to name his own pitcher, Andy Pettitte (who has 10 wins) to replace Sabathia, it seems likely the league will say the Yankees already have enough players on the roster, and that either Weaver or Hernanadez will be tabbed to replace the big lefty on the active roster.

The betting here is Youkilis wins the Final Vote, and Weaver is chosen to replace Sabathia because of the fact the game is being played in Anaheim.

In the National League, Bell, Gonzalez and Votto are on the Final Vote ballot. In addition I would add a couple of other snubs – C Miguel Olivo of the Colorado Rockies (.308 / 11 / 39) or RHP Mike Pelfrey of the NY Mets (10-2, 2.93).

It says here that Votto will win the Final Vote, although I will vote for Bell, who leads all of baseball in saves.

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Who The Starters For The MLB All-Star Game Should Be (And Their Backups)

The MLB All-Star Game is soon. Unfortunately, we don’t always get to see the best players selected for it. In this slideshow, we’ll take a look at the best position players in the National and American League. The following players SHOULD be the starters for the All-Star game…

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Rounding The Bases: June 11th MLB Rundown

Another day, another big time prospect comes to the majors.  Today it is Carlos Santana of the Cleveland Indians who was perhaps the best hitting prospect left down in the farm.  I wont start gushing too much about him, you will have to read the article to see the rest.  There is some injury news on one of the best players in the game, and also some of the more interesting pitchers of the night. 

Carlos Santana was FINALLY called to the major leagues by the Cleveland Indians and was third in the batting order in his first game.  He was 0-for-3 with a walk in his first action, but there is no doubt that the team has nothing but confidence in him and he will be their everyday catcher or at least DH if they think he needs a day off from behind the plate. 

There is absolutely nothing not to like about this kid.  He is just 24 years old and has hit at every level of the minors.  In 57 games in AAA in 2010, Santana was hitting .316 with 13 homers and 51 RBI. 

I think that he will have similar numbers to that of Buster Posey, but I think that he is going to hit more homers than his National League counterpart.  Santana is a good pick-up for any fantasy team, even if you have one of the top catchers in the league. 

 

The “groin injury” that caused Alex Rodriguez to come out of yesterday’s game turns out to be a hip problem after all, although according to his manager it is not in the area that caused him to have surgery and miss the first month of last season (although I don’t believe that for one second). 

He did not play on Friday and the team says that he is day to day.  If I had to guess, I would say that he probably won’t play until Sunday, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he was back with the team on Saturday.  It might cause him to miss some games sporadically over the next couple of weeks, but it appears that this won’t be  major. 

 

Austin Kearns is having a nice little bounce back year as he attempts to actually have a season that he can actually stay healthy.  Kearns has only played more than 90 games once in the last five seasons.  He had two home runs on Friday, bringing his season total to seven in just 40 games. 

If you are considering adding Kearns, allow me to offer these words of advice.  I can see you adding him to your roster if you are a little weak in the due to injury or other factors.  However, just know that this is probably going to be short lived because he has never proven to be consistent or able to stay on the field. 

 

For those of you who have been worried about Francisco Liriano regressing after his hot start, how are you feeling now? 

Liriano absolutely dominated the Atlanta Braves on Friday as he gave up just one run over eight innings and struck out a very impressive 11 batters.

This is now back to back games in which he has double digit strikeouts and has allowed only one run, so any concern coming off that little rough stretch should be gone.  His ERA is under 3.00 and he has more than a strikeout an inning for the season. 

 

R. A. Dickey got his fourth win in just five starts for the New York Mets, but I don’t see any way that you can possibly trust this journeyman knuckleballer to be a consistent contributor for you.  There is no way that you can take away today’s performance though as he allowed just one run over seven innings and struck out eight. 

Most of the time with knuckleballers it is either feast or famine.  Either the ball is jumping all over and it is hard to hit, or it just isn’t moving much at all and it is batting practice for the offense.  So far, so good for Dickey, but I think you are grasping at straws if you are expecting a 35 year old pitcher with a career record under .500 and a ERA of 5.31 to pitch well throughout the season. 

 

Granted it is easier to pitch when your team gives you nine runs of support in the first two innings, John Lackey had a strong outing today regardless of his cushion.  He gave up just two runs over seven innings and struck out three. 

Like I wrote last time he took the mound, I think the days of the John Lackey in Anaheim with the good strikeout numbers might be gone, but I still think he is a very viable fantasy pitcher.  He has gone from a possible staff ace to a very solid third starter on your team; but on the Red Sox he should really be able to pile up some wins as he got number seven on Friday.  It has been an uncharacteristic season for Lackey, but perhaps he can get back on track. 

 

Speaking of getting back on track, hopefully tonight’s game will do just that for David Ortiz .  Big Papi was starting to turn back into a pumpkin again as he had just one hit in his previous eight games—but he broke out big time on Friday as he collected three hits and drove in four runs to bring his season total to 39 RBI.  Looks like it is going to be similar to last year for Papi with a good number of homers and RBIs and a pretty putrid batting average. 

 

James Shields has hit a major bump in the road lately, a bump that hopefully is temporary.  He had a streak from April 22nd to May 25th in which he did not allow more than three earned runs, and now two of his last three outings he has coughed up at least seven.  He gave up a whopping ten earned runs on Friday in just 3.1 innings, but at least he struck out four (like that is any consolation to his owners!).

At least Shields is still getting exceptional strikeout numbers for his career, as he now has 82 whiffs in just 85 innings pitched, which is well above his career rate.  If you have Shields, you have to continue to start him no matter the opponent and hope that this is short lived. 

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MLB Awards for the First Third of the Season

We are now about a third of the way through the 2010 baseball season, and the time is ripe for a new awards list.

Many players on this list are the usual suspects, but there are also a few surprises.

Many are clear cut (see above), where other categories, such as NL Comeback player of the Year, have at least a quartet of deserving candidates.

Not all these players will actually win the award at the end of the season, as this list is who I believe should win right here, right now.

The fellow shown above is on verge of an historic season. Will he be able to continue his dominance for the final two-thirds?

Time will tell.

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Hey Boston Red Sox, Time To Hit the Panic Button (If You’re the Yankees or Rays)

Ten days ago the Red Sox suffered a crushing loss to their arch (and division rival), the New York Yankees.  Losses happen, but this one stung more than most because Jonanthan Papelbon, the team’s surefire closer over the last five seasons hardly looked like a guy who had been to All-Star games and enjoyed playoff success.

He gave up an astounding four runs in just two thirds of an inning.  For the first time in his career as a reliever he gave up two home runs in one inning and left Red Sox fans wondering if 2010 just wasn’t their year.

Why were fans so concerned in mid-May with just about 3/4 of the season left?

Simple.

The Red Sox were looking up in the standings at everyone in the division, and the Rays and Yankees both already had significant leads in the win/loss columns.  The Sox had a team that was supposed to be built on pitching and defense, and early returns were beyond disappointing in both areas. 

With John Lackey, Josh Beckett, and Diasuke Matsuzaka each struggling mightily and the defense seeming to kick one ball after another since the team flew north from Ft. Myers, the team showed no signs of a turnaround in the near future.

The next day something changed in a big way. The Red Sox appeared headed for another loss at the hand of the Bronx Bombers following a seven-inning, one-run performance from CC Sabathia.  Flame-throwing set-up man Joba Chamberlain came on and absolutely collapsed.  He gave up four runs in his inning of work and left with the score tied.

When Mariano Rivera came on for the ninth, winning the game in extra-innings seemed like the most realistic option for getting out of New York with at least one victory.  They instead managed to get the future Hall-of-Famer, plating two runs and putting the pressure back on the World Champions.

Papelbon came back through the bullpen doors, and though he looked shaky still, managed to finish the win for the former Boston Americans. 

Fast-forward eight more days and the tune is entirely different in Boston.  Since that incredible come from behind win over the Yankees, the Red Sox are an impressive 7-1 over that stretch.  More impressively, those wins have come against the Twins, Phillies, and Rays; all teams currently leading their divisions.

So just how did a team that looked like they had essentially eliminated themselves turn around their season in a little more than a week?

The team started playing like analysts had predicted in the offseason. 

Clay Buccholz and Jon Lester both ratcheted up their performances, and are currently battling for the team lead in ERA in the low 3s. 

The other members of the staff (excluding Beckett who hit the DL) have all started performing more like the top two guys than AAA pitchers. 

Matsuzaka flirted with history as he carried a no-hitter into the eighth before a flair found its way past an outstretched Marco Scutaro’s glove.  Wakefield did an admirable job filling in for Beckett as he provided the Sox with eight shut-out innings and beat Roy Halladay.  Lackey found his touch and made a quality start in the team’s win over the Rays.

The pitching staff is not solely responsible for the light-speed like turnaround. 

David Ortiz struggled more than any hitter on the team for the first month of the season.  His numbers so far in May are among the best of his career as he is hitting .368 with 9 homers this month. 

The team is also starting to get healthy as both Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron hit the field for the first time in almost a month this week.  Other hitters are starting to hit, and the plays are being made in the field.

All of this adds up to a message that the Red Sox have sent loud and clear over the the last nine days by going 8-1 overall against four of the MLB’s top six teams: It’s only May, but it might be time to start to panic about how good the team in Boston could really be.

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Turning Point In St. Pete: Boston Sweeps Tampa Bay

The brooms were out in St. Petersburg tonight as the Boston Red Sox rocked the Rays 11-3. This was an impressive series as the Red Sox completed the first sweep of the Rays at Tropicana Field since 2002.

Completing the sweep was important and all, but now the Red Sox have climbed back into the AL East, sitting only 5.5 games behind the Rays and now six games over .500. 

Throughout the series the themes were run prevention and solid, quality pitching, the two themes this ball club is built on.

The team witnessed strong outings from Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and John Lackey. It appears that Lester is now getting in the “zone” and Lackey’s and Buchholz’s performances are definitely confidence boosters. 

The Sox scored a total of 19 runs while holding the Rays to only four. Quite simply, that’s just dominance. 

Besides the strong pitching performances, including the one-hit shutout on Tuesday, Boston has shown some quality hitting performances, too. 

David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, and Adrian Beltre were the team’s offensive powers this series. Ortiz went 5-11 with two home runs while tallying up five RBI. Youkilis also had five hits. But the biggest contributor of them all was Beltre who went 7-13 with an astonishing seven RBI, six of them coming in the rubber game. 

It appears that Boston has avenged the four-game sweep that Tampa Bay completed on Boston back in April.

Boston looks good. They are pitching very well, from their starting pitching to the bullpen. And their bats have awakened. 

Now is the time for Boston to gain some momentum after going 9-4 through a tough stretch against American League powerhouses. Boston will open up what appears to be somewhat of an “easy” stretch against Kansas City, Oakland, Baltimore, and Cleveland. 

As Terry Francona said after completing the three game sweep, “Someone asked the other day if I think (good pitching) is contagious. If it is, I hope we get an epidemic.”

The Sox hope that their pitching staff will be the key to their success in their climb in the American League East. 

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Niekro, Murphy, and Koufax: A New Way To Judge Future Hall of Famers

Is Mariano Rivera a future Hall of Famer?  How about Albert Pujols?  What about Joe Mauer?

Playing the Hall of Fame prediction game is always fun.  Bill James likes to analyze future Hall of Famers from a percentage standpoint.  I have never stuck around long enough to figure out how he says things like “Todd Helton has a 67 percent chance of making the Hall of Fame,” but he does it, and so there it is.

Back in the 1980s, I forget when it was, but I believe it was in the spring of 1987 that James issued the following one-sentence analysis of Dale Murphy’s chances of being elected into the Hall of Fame:

“Dale Murphy will be in the Hall of Fame.”

Obviously, as we all now know, Dale Murphy is not, in fact, in the Hall of Fame, and never will be. 

Obviously, in the spring of 1987, Murphy looked like one of the great talents in the game—a speedy center-fielder with power who, at the age of 30, already had over 250 home runs (a big deal back then), 800 RBI, two MVPs, and five Gold Gloves. 

It would have been crazy to think Murphy would NOT be in the Hall of Fame.

Two years later, Murphy hit .226 with 24 home runs in a full season.  Two years after that, he hit .245 with 24 home runs.  Two years after that, he was all but done with baseball, at the age of 35, never having passed 400 home runs, and having watched his overall career stats tumble.

Thus, it occurs to me: When we ask whether a current player will one day be in the Hall of Fame, we are really asking one of three questions.

First, we are asking the Dale Murphy 1987 question: If this player continues on his expected career trajectory, will he one day be in the Hall of Fame?  Obviously, if Murphy could have remained productive into his mid-30s, he was Hall of Fame material.  He just unexpectedly stopped producing.

But the second, more exciting question, is what we’ll call the Sandy Koufax 1966 question.  Koufax, of course, retired at the age of 30 completely out of the blue after the 1966 season, on the heels of simply dominating baseball for five straight seasons.

Koufax was a no-doubter for the Hall six years later. 

So, the Sandy Koufax question is: If this player were to suddenly and without warning retire from baseball today, would he be a Hall of Famer?

At any given time, the Dale Murphy 1987 Hall of Famers far out-number the Sandy Koufax 1966 Hall of Famers, and this makes sense: The difference between a very good player and a Hall of Fame player is often the ability to be great for a long time.

The third question is the one we’ll call the Phil Niekro Question. 

Niekro, of course, is the only player ever to have fewer than 200 wins on his 40th birthday and then go on to win 300 games.  Thus, as one might imagine, when Phil Niekro turned 40 in 1979 (a season in which, by the way, he led the NL in wins AND losses, plus starts, complete games, innings, hits, home runs, walks, wild pitches, and batters faced), no one on earth thought he was destined for the Hall of Fame. 

But sure enough, by the time he retired nearly a decade later, he had 5,400 innings pitched and 318 wins, and he was eventually elected to the Hall of Fame.

So, the Phil Niekro 1979 question is: Can this player, who is not currently a Hall of Fame-caliber player, continue playing long enough to reach certain career milestones that will put him over the top?

The problem with Phil Niekro 1979 Hall of Famers is that you never know who these guys are until you get there.  Who knew 10 years ago that Jamie Moyer would still be pitching in 2010?

But I digress.

So, now that we have a framework for analyzing potential Hall of Famers, we don’t have to argue endlessly about whether a guy like Lance Berkman is a future Hall of Famer.  We know Berkman is a Murphy ’87 Hall of Famer, but not yet a Koufax ’66 Hall of Famer.

Here, then, is a list of 30 current major league players: the Top 10 Koufax ’66 Hall of Famers, the Top 10 Murphy ’87 Hall of Famers, and the Top 10 Nieko ’79 Hall of Famers.

 

Top 10 Sandy Koufax 1966 Hall of Famers

The guys who would be in right now if they retired tomorrow.

10. Albert Pujols

He became eligible when he began his 10th season this year.  He would be in if he was killed tomorrow by the mother of his six handicapped illegitimate children that he refused to acknowledge.

9. Ken Griffey, Jr.

“The Kid” has probably spent the most time on this list.  He’s been a Koufax ’66 gut since 1999, and despite all efforts to ruin his career, he still is. 

Actually, if someone would let him know this, maybe we could get him to retire.

8. Ivan Rodriguez

One of the greatest catchers ever.

7. Jim Thome

The only thing that could stop him now is steroid allegations.  He is this era’s Harmon Killebrew.

6. Chipper Jones

See Thome comment.  Substitute “Eddie Matthews” for “Harmon Killebrew.”

5. Derek Jeter

Love him or hate him, but they may rename the Hall of Fame after him.

4. Trevor Hoffman

Dude, you’re in; you won’t need 600 saves.  Hang it up.

3. Mariano Rivera

Certainly the greatest modern closer, and perhaps the greatest relief pitcher of all time.

2. Manny Ramirez

His personality is going to cost him some votes, but he may be one of the five greatest right-handed hitters of all time.

1. Alex Rodriguez

People hate him.  He makes too much money.  He used PEDs.  And he’s one of the four greatest non-first base infielders (Hornsby, Wagner, A-Rod) of all time.

 

Top 10 Dale Murphy 1987 Hall of Famers

Keep this up much longer, and you’re going straight to the Hall.

10. Andy Pettitte/Jorge Posada

Let’s face it: the “Big Four”—Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, Posada—are probably already in, but neither Pettitte nor Posada have, strictly speaking, Hall of Fame-caliber numbers. 

If Pettitte has 500 more innings, a couple more playoff appearances, and gets to 250 wins, he’s there for sure.  If Posada gets to 1,000 runs, 250 home runs, and 1,000 RBI, he’s a lock.

9. Roy Halladay

Halladay is so “cusp.”  He probably already has the numbers to eventually be elected, but his numbers should be no doubt by the end of his current contract, the way he’s pitching.

8. Johan Santana

Three ERA titles, three strikeout titles, and two Cy Youngs essentially lands Santana in the David Cone/Bret Saberhagen range of pitchers.  Santana has all the skills, but needs more years.

7. Joe Mauer

Is he young?  Yes.  But if he stays healthy and continues to develop, he could be the greatest catcher of all time.  Seriously.

6. Chase Utley

Utley is only in his sixth full year, and needs two more seasons to even qualify, but his combination of hitting and defense at the second base position put him well ahead of the pace of Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg and future Hall of Famers Craig Biggio and Roberto Alomar.

5. Lance Berkman

His numbers are not exactly headed in a “I’m gonna be playing for five more years” direction, but if he does, he’s in.

4. Todd Helton

Had Helton put up the numbers he’s put up while playing in a ball park other than Coors’ Field, he’d be in the Koufax ’66 group.  As it is, he seems to be within range of some impressive career milestones to go with his amazing rate stats.

3. Vladimir Guerrero

A year ago, Vlad looked done, but he wisely left the Los Angeles Angels and signed on with baseball’s version of the fountain of youth, the Texas Rangers.  If he has a few more years in him, he’ll be a lock.

2. David Wright

Is this guy Howard Johnson, Scott Rolen, or Mike Schmidt?  I have no idea.  If he can just play the way he has so far for 10 more years, he’s a Hall of Famer.

1. Tim Lincecum

A really good debut year, followed by two dominant Cy Young seasons, followed by a so-far terrific fourth season, Lincecum is to this era, what Dwight Gooden was to the 1980s. 

Let’s hope no one introduces him to Darryl Strawberry.

 

Top 10 Phil Niekro 1979 Hall of Famers

Yeah, you could be in the Hall of Fame, if you’ve got 1,000 more hits in your 40-year-old bat, or 100 more wins in your 40-year-old arm.

10. David Ortiz

There is no way the 34-year-old Ortiz makes the Hall of Fame as a late-blooming designated hitter, unless he can hit 175 home runs to get to 500.

9. Johnny Damon  

No one has ever gotten to 3,000 hits and been left out of the Hall of Fame.  If the 36-year-old Damon can collect 550 more hits at the end of his career, neither will he.

8. Bobby Abreu  

Abreu will be in the sabermetrics Hall of Fame, but unless he has about 100 more doubles, 40 more home runs, 300 more RBI, and 50 more stolen bases, I suspect he will be this generation’s Bobby Bonds.

7. Jason Giambi

Currently a pinch-hitting specialist with the Rockies, Giambi would need to hit 90 more home runs and get to 500 to even sniff the Hall, what with his PEDs admission and his meager career totals.

6. Jim Edmonds

A surprisingly compelling Hall of Fame candidate at this point. His total resume does not leap out at you, but now that he has come back after missing all of 1999 and looks refreshed, what if he plays five more seasons, gets to 420-430 home runs, scores 1,400 runs, and drives in 1,300 RBI?

5. Paul Konerko

An inconsistent, overrated, oafish, sometimes power hitter, Konerko nevertheless has 340 home runs at the age of 34 and currently leads the NL.  What if he plays until he’s 45 and hits 600 dongs?

4. Andruw Jones

Jones has probably spent time in all three of these categories.  Had he retired after the 2005 season—when he hit his 300th home run, led the NL in home runs and RBI, hit 51 home runs, and won his seventh Gold Glove at the age of 28—he would have been a Koufax ’67 guy. 

Had he continued his career trajectory of 2007, when at the age of 30 he appeared to be locked in for 500 home runs, he would have been a Murphy guy. 

Now, he has spent three seasons playing like he is already 40 years old.  He needs a Ruben Sierra-style comeback, and it needs to last long enough to get him to some big numbers.

3. Tim Hudson

Kind of the Bert Blyleven of his own era.  Hudson has not been on the map as a great pitcher since 2003, and probably needs to pitch a nice long time to get into Hall contention.

2. Edgar Renteria

If Renteria plays 10 more years and gets to 3,000 hits and 2,000 runs scored, people won’t even mention what a mediocre player he is as they vote him in on the first ballot.

1. Jamie Moyer

Clearly a lackluster pitcher, he has given us no indication that he can’t keep limiting opponents to five runs per game and picking up wins for 10 more years.  He is 47 years old and needs 37 wins to get to 300. 

Start the clock.

 

Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com. 

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Dustin Pedroia Pushes Papi Out of Slump

Laser show.

Turns out Dustin Pedroia was right. He was one of the last remaining riders on the David Ortiz Bandwagon just a few weeks ago when he promised a mob of local reporters that Ortiz would be fine, referring to his own tumultuous start as a rookie three years ago.

His slump was followed by a campaign that earned him Rookie of the Year honors and prompted him to term his propensity for whistling line drives a “laser show.”

And as we sit here several weeks later, it turns out Pedroia was right. Ortiz has since emerged from his slump and has been perhaps the most potent bat in the lineup, save for Kevin Youkilis, over the last week to 10 days.

Nobody’s intimating that Pedroia divined anything here. Ortiz has done all the hard work himself, proving a legion of media and fans alike wrong in the process. Imagine if, as the overreacting Boston press and rabid fanbase had begged, the Red Sox cut Ortiz?

I don’t want to think about it.

Ortiz has worked his average back to well over .200 and has already smoked seven home runs. His slump to start last season was almost twice as long, and yet this one felt more painful given the pouncing of the press on what many believed to be Big Papi’s carcass.

But the story here goes beyond Ortiz and to whom it was that came out and defended him.

In the first three seasons of his career, Dustin Pedroia was a Rookie of the Year, an MVP, and one of the toughest outs in baseball.

And now he’s the embodiment of a leader.

This is a Red Sox team starved for a vocal presence in the clubhouse to take command. The 2004-era team almost had too many such personalities, with the likes of Schilling, Millar, and Damon fighting for the limelight.

But this season’s team is a library to that team’s sports bar. Pedroia has stepped up and established himself as the unquestioned leader. He’s steady on the field, sturdy in character, and stoic in the face of adversity.

He also happens to have a motor that would make Kevin Garnett salivate.

And now he’s the go-to guy. When the team was scuffling mightily earlier this year, it was Pedroia calling everyone out and demanding better play. And all he did that night was snag a line drive, crawl to tag out a runner, and flip to first from his backside for a double play.

He spoke. Then he backed it up.

And then he came to Ortiz’s defense when everyone else in the locker room was treating the slump like the plague and avoiding any comment at all costs. Instead of shying away, Pedroia stood up, defended his teammate, and begged everyone to move on.

Two weeks later, with Ortiz delivering a laser show, indeed, it’s only fair to give credit to the new little big man in the Red Sox clubhouse.

Whether or not he can will this team back into the pennant race remains to be seen. That’s a tall order for anyone, let alone a 5’8″ second baseman. But he’s made it clear that if anyone is going to do it, it will be him.

He already delivered on one promise this season. Who is to say he can’t deliver on another?

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