Kuzul

Like all fantasy sports, the key to success in fantasy baseball is understanding value. Failure to understand value can lead an owner to mislabel a player as a disappointment, while understanding value can give an owner a late-round steal.

To determine value, you must consider what you gave up when you selected a certain player in the draft. Did you grab an elite catcher early because of the scarcity of that position? Or did you simply draft the best players, regardless of position? 

Jose Abreu, whose ESPN average draft position was 134th (only five spots ahead of Alfonso Soriano), has obviously exceeded the expectations of a 13th-round pick. Yet Yadier Molina and Dustin Pedroia, players considered to be the class of their positions, have vastly underwhelmed. The price paid to grab these players early in drafts has been far higher than their actual production.

For the sake of clarity, the following list of disappointments is composed only of position players. A player can only be considered a “disappointment” if his current ESPN Player Rater ranking is at least 100 spots worse than his average draft position. Also, all players must currently be owned in 100 percent of standard ESPN fantasy baseball leagues. Players who have missed time due to injury, such as Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce and Bryce Harper, are excluded.  

Here are the top five fantasy disappointments as we approach the halfway point of the 2014 season.

Statistics are accurate through June 19 and are obtained from MLB.com, ESPN.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com.

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David Wright was off to a rough start in April. The New York Mets captain was passive at the plate and late on many pitches. Wright is getting into a rhythm as of late, but his overall performance has been underwhelming.

Wright inked an eight-year, $138 million deal in 2012 and is earning $20 million per year from 2014 to 2018 with $2.5 million deferred annually without interest. He is 31 years old, and while he is the face of the franchise and the pride of Mets fans, the highest paid player in team history is not living up to his contract on the field. 

Curtis Granderson and Chris Young have been disappointing and have already been lambasted as busts by some fans. Wright has been a bastion of consistency throughout his career, but he has received his fair share of criticism early this season. Although Wright is not stuck in a slump as deep as Granderson or Young’s, he is taking up about as much payroll as them combined in 2014 and also must be held accountable. 

Wright had a more promising start last year, as reflected by his statistics on ESPN.com. He posted a .283/.384/.476 slash line with seven home runs and 30 runs batted in through the first two months of the 2013 season. He drew 29 walks and struck out 40 times with 11 stolen bases and seven doubles and four triples.

From March 31 to the end of May this season, his offensive line was .294/.339/.396 with four homers and 30 runs batted in. Wright drew just 15 walks and struck out 56 times with only three stolen bases, 12 doubles and no triples.

Wright is getting on base less frequently in 2014 than he did in 2013, and his power is down despite the higher strikeout rate. His career on-base percentage is .380 with a slugging percentage of .502.

He remains sturdy at the hot corner, making diving plays and saving runs, but some of his throws have been inaccurate. Wright already has six errors, even though he finished the 2013 season with nine.

After hitting a home run on Opening Day (March 31), Wright did not launch any long balls in April and posted a meager .245/.301/.275 slash line with only three extra base hits. FanGraphs Baseball’s 2014 ZiPS Projections predicted that Wright will post a .276/.358/.467 slash line, all below his career averages, this season. At this pace those projections, perhaps aside from the low batting average, would be something to hope for. 

One reason to believe that Wright will bounce back is that he made notable improvements in May. Wright was a different player last month with a .320/.360/.461 offensive line, three homers and nine doubles. His batting average, OBP and slugging percentage in May 2014 are relatively close to the first two months of his 2013 season.

According to ESPN’s Hot Zones, Wright has been red hot on down and in pitches, but he is cold or frigid just about everywhere else. He has been chasing outside and missing badly on pitches high in the strike zone, particularly fastballs high and in. Sliders away are also problematic for the third baseman.

Wright is off to a 3-for-8 start to June with two walks and a two-run double on June 2 against the Philadelphia Phillies in Citizens Bank Park. The long shot to center field nearly cleared the fence.

With four months left in 2014, Wright has plenty of time to redeem himself. His first two months were underwhelming as a whole, but it is too early to write him off.

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With the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reporting that the New York Mets inked Curtis Granderson to a four-year, $60 million deal, the team is undoubtedly improved heading into the 2014 season. However, if the Mets are unwilling to sacrifice more money or assets this offseason to further improve the major league roster, the deal will be a mistake, as New York will fail to capitalize on Granderson’s prime years.

The front office has long advertised 2014 as the year in which the Mets would start competing. With the Jason Bay and Johan Santana contracts coming off the books, fans have long dreamt of signing an impact outfielder such as Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, or Curtis Granderson in the 2013-14 offseason. With Matt Harvey emerging as one of the best pitchers in the National League, contending in 2014 seemed like a tangible possibility if the team had a strong offseason.

Harvey’s Tommy John surgery altered the Mets situation drastically. Heading into 2014 without Harvey, New York’s success depends heavily on the development of young hurlers Zack Wheeler and Jenrry Mejia as well as contributions from prospects Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero. The Mets would also need young hitters like Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares to reach their potential if they have any chance at competing for a 2014 playoff spot.

With the still-developing Mets prospects’ seemingly bright futures further down the road, signing Curtis Granderson makes little sense unless the Mets continue to be aggressive this offseason.

As he currently stands as a player, Granderson’s presence on the Mets makes the team better. As a 33-year-old outfielder, the discernible skills Granderson brings to New York are his power and speed. He has struggled with making consistent contact in recent years, batting .231 cumulatively over the past two seasons.

Granderson should significantly improve the Mets for the 2014 season. Outside of David Wright, New York hasn’t had a position player with this much impact potential since the loss of Jose Reyes.

The slugging outfielder has been an elite big leaguer as recently as 2011, when he placed fourth in the MVP race, finishing with 41 home runs, 119 RBI and a .262/.364/.552 slash-line. While his batting average dropped to .232 in 2012, he still hit 43 home runs and was a game-changing talent.

Many baseball experts around the league have lauded the deal for the Mets. ESPN’s Keith Law believes that with New York’s young rotation, this signing immediately improves the Mets outfield and should help them compete in 2015. FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris thinks that Granderson should age gracefully because of his style of play, and that “He fills a desperate need for the Mets, who don’t have great short- or long-term options at his position.”

David Wright was also among those thrilled by the signing, as evidenced by the quote below:

Despite Granderson’s immediate impact on the team and the support behind the signing, the track record for outfielders following their age-33 season is bleak, a topic discussed in depth by Toby Hyde at MetsMinorLeagueBlog.com. Hyde analyzed players with similar skill sets and careers as Granderson heading into the latter stages of their careers, and found that almost universally the players’ WARs decline sharply.

Hyde also analyzed Granderson’s decline heading into this offseason, pointing out the very concerning increase in the outfielder’s strikeout percentage, rising from 19.9 percent in 2009 to over 28 percent in each of the last two seasons. With Granderson already noticeably declining, along with the poor track record of similar players, the chances of him being an above-average regular by the end of the contract are slim.

There is also the question of whether or not Curtis Granderson significantly cures the Mets offensive woes. As Kevin Burkhardt notes, in 2013 New York finished tied for 22nd in runs, 24th in OBP, 29th in slugging percentage and tied for 24th in home runs. They did this with Marlon Byrd in the lineup for most of the season, and Byrd hit .285 with a .518 slugging percentage and 21 home runs.

The Mets can expect slightly more home runs from Granderson than Byrd, with a significantly lower batting average. The Mets offense ranked as low as it did despite Byrd’s career year, and by replacing Byrd’s statistics with Granderson’s marginally better production, the front office made a small dent into the team’s offensive woes.

For fans, the Granderson signing is easy to like. While the Mets have stockpiled pitching talent, their lineup has remained underwhelming despite David Wright’s presence, and Granderson gives New Yorkers a reason to come to Citi Field.

Despite how the deal makes the Mets better in the short term, New York must approach the winter meetings with an aggressive attitude.

Bleacher Report’s Joe Giglio lays out his view of the next steps for the Mets, citing the team’s need for a shortstop, a stable first baseman and a veteran arm. If the Mets fail to improve the team drastically in these areas for the 2014 season either through free agency or trades, the Granderson deal will be a failure, as the Mets need to capitalize on the years of production the slugging outfielder has left.

You can comment below or follow me on Twitter at @s_cunningham718

All statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.

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With the Hot Stove season in full swing and rumors flying around about what the New York Mets will do in free agency, the 2014 roster is far from set.

While moves in free agency and the trade market need to be made before the Mets can be considered a potential playoff team, there is one player already on the roster whose development can push the Mets to a 2014 playoff berth: Travis d’Arnaud. 

The young catcher who was the centerpiece of the R.A. Dickey trade has long been considered one of the elite prospects in baseball. D’Arnaud’s 2013 season was far from ideal, as much of it was lost to injury. Once he was healthy and called up to the majors, he underperformed, batting just .202 with one home run in 99 at-bats.  

The excitement fans once had for d’Arnaud has shifted away from him to Noah Syndergaard, the other top prospect acquired for R.A. Dickey.

Fans of the team need to step back and realize what they have in Travis d’Arnaud. Prospects do not always pan out, but scouts believe that the only thing that could hold his career back is injuries, not talent. He plays a premium position in catcher (and plays it very well), and if d’Arnaud blossoms and remains healthy in 2014, the Mets could have a top-flight catcher that would be the envy of much of the league.

D’Arnaud has the potential to be special because of both the potential of his bat and his glove.

Offensive Potential

With catcher being a position where less offense is expected, the fact that d’Arnaud has potential to be a plus hitter alone makes him a stud of a prospect.

He has some weaknesses as a hitter, including his long swing and poor patience at the plate evidenced by his strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minor leagues.  In 2012 for the Blue Jays Double-A affiliate, d’Arnaud had a walk rate of just 6.3 percent compared to a strikeout rate of 19.5 percent.

D’Arnaud struggled in his time in the majors in 2013, but he actually quelled the fears of many talent evaluators with his patience at the plate, posting a walk-rate of 10.9 percent. He also has many strengths as a hitter, exhibited by his consistently high performance in the upper levels of the minors. 

Jason Parks, the head prospect writer for Baseball Prospectus, prior to the 2013 season ranked Travis d’Arnaud as the 15^th best prospect in baseball. In Parks’ evaluation, he noted d’Arnaud’s above-average bat speed and good contact ability as strengths, and that he had “swing characteristics for power production.”

Scouts also rave about d’Arnaud’s approach at the plate, as he focuses on hitting the ball up the middle allowing him to drive the ball to all parts of the field. In the video to the right, while d’Arnaud was playing for the Blue Jays Double-A affiliate he made t-shirts that said “oppo-taco,” something he would yell in the dugout after hitting an opposite field home run.  

Opposite field power is a rare attribute that d’Arnaud has, and it is a trait that helps David Wright be the balanced hitter he is today.

Because of d’Arnaud’s historically balanced approach towards hitting, his struggles in August and September can be attributed to pressure to perform early on that can lead to a tendency to pull and get off balance while hitting.

Jason Parks noted this as a weakness in d’Arnaud’s game, saying how his aggressive approach led to a tendency to pull off balls. Parks also predicted d’Arnaud’s early struggles, stating that, “His biggest hurdle will be the adjustment against major league quality pitching, as his approach and setup both show signs of vulnerability.”

While fans witnessed this adjustment period, they should be patient and understand that this young man has the tools and makeup to work through these problems and become an offensive force.

While d’Arnaud’s performance at the plate in the majors was underwhelming, the combination of his increased walk rate and his track record as an impact hitter gives reason to be optimistic about his future offense.

If d’Arnaud becomes an impact hitter, it could help propel the Mets to the playoffs by lengthening their lineup and giving them production from a position that is generally lacking in the majors. 

Defensive Potential

Even if d’Arnaud’s offense is never pans out, his defense should make him a staple in the Mets’ lineup for years to come. D’Arnaud has been lauded for a variety of his defensive traits, including his pitch framing ability and how he builds relationships with pitchers.

D’Arnaud’s pitch framing was one of the characteristics of his game that first caught the eye of teammates. Via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, Matt Harvey said after just a few starts throwing to him that he felt d’Arnaud had Molina-like qualities behind the plate, while Zack Wheeler said, “When the balls are down, he does something that makes them look like they’re strikes. It’s ridiculous.”

In Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus’ analysis of catcher framing, scout Jason Cole told him a pitcher “had raved about d’Arnaud having the strongest wrists he’d seen, enabling him to throw sinkers below the zone for strikes throughout the game.”

Pitch framing ability is becoming seen as an integral component when evaluating catcher defense, and d’Arnaud excels at it.

With Matt Harvey out for the season, d’Arnaud’s ability to work with young hurlers Zack Wheeler and (at some point) Noah Syndergaard is integral both for the Mets competing in 2014 as well as the future development of the team’s young arms.

The pitching staff has openly stated how comfortable they are throwing to d’Arnaud. Via Chris Iseman of MLB.com, Dillon Gee said how d’Arnaud “comes to me and starts talking about how I like to pitch guys, what I like to go to, just trying to figure me out.” Jon Niese agreed, saying how “going forward, it’s going to be good for us to learn the hitters together.”

With his baseball intellect and willingness to figure out his pitcher’s strengths and weaknesses, d’Arnaud makes himself that much more valuable to the 2014 Mets.

Outside of catchers such as Yadier Molina, Buster Posey and Matt Wieters, the position is generally weak throughout baseball. Due to the nature of the position, catchers often decline rapidly as they age and are forced off of the position (like Joe Mauer recently).

While there are solid catchers in the league like Kansas City’s Salvador Perez and Cleveland’s Carlos Santana, d’Arnaud’s ceiling as a prospect indicates he could be among the best in the league. If d’Arnaud develops into the player that most scouts expect him to become, having an elite catcher is an asset that could propel the Mets into the 2014 playoff picture.

A 2014 playoff run is still far from reality as the Mets have many holes. With Matt Harvey out and many vacancies to be filled in free agency, a number of things need to happen before the team can be competitive.

But if Travis d’Arnaud can overcome his injury-ridden past and fulfill his potential as one of the best catchers in the league, he could be the difference between the 2014 Mets remaining in mediocrity or rising to relevancy once again.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Biogenesis saga has become the Alex Rodriguez saga. Rodriguez was hit with the oddly-constructed 211-game suspension on Monday and without explanation or evidence, it’s hard to have much of a position based on facts, though that hasn’t stopped many. 

What’s been most interesting to me is how little people seem to know about the testing program. Referred to as the “JDA” or joint drug agreement, it spells out in minute detail how the program is supposed to work. It’s legalese, but important legalese. 

Few seem to understand “A” sample and “B” samples, collection procedures, location registration, methodology for randomization, but I wouldn’t expect them to. I can see why people might gloss over lists of chemicals, appeals procedures and even the precise language requiring secrecy throughout the process, up to and including the wording of press releases. 

This document, negotiated and re-negotiated by the commissioner’s representatives and the players’ association was supposed to have governed this process but instead was shattered by it. Whether it was Bud Selig’s edict, congressional grandstanding or a public perfectly willing to let both sides make end runs around the letter of the law, the JDA is now not worth the paper it’s printed on.

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article here at Bleacher Report discussing possible replacements for Bud Selig. I ended up with his most likely “replacement” being Selig himself, with the commissioner set up to once again extend his reign. Now, I’m not so sure. This episode has weakened the position of the commissioner’s role. The MLBPA will not allow the “integrity clause” to be as unfettered as it has been since the days of Landis and negotiations on the JDA itself will end up more tense. Selig likely doesn’t care.

Selig has instead lashed his legacy to this mast, forever tying himself to the beginning, the heyday and perhaps the end of the so-called steroid era. Selig wishes to be remembered as the commissioner who revived the game and perhaps saved it from an enemy greater than even an angered public after the World Series was cancelled. 

This was Selig’s moment, when he stood at the lectern and pronounced his sentence on Alex Rodriguez. While appeals and who knows what else in this saga awaits us, down to a potential 2015 return, Selig should seal the moment with his own resignation. It is clear that he feels this is his defining act and that nothing after could compare.

Selig dropped the hammer. Now he should drop the mic.

But there’s still injuries around baseball, so let’s take a look around the league:

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New York Mets third baseman David Wright was forced to leave in the 10th inning of New York’s 4-2 victory over the Kansas City Royals Friday night with an apparent right hamstring injury.

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For the third time in the history of the Major League Baseball All-Star Game, the American and National Leagues will square off behind two different captains in the Home Run Derby. 

On Tuesday, New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano (AL) and New York Mets third baseman David Wright (NL) were reportedly named as the captains for their respective leagues and now have the task of picking a group of sluggers to wow fans at Citi Field in New York. 

ESPN’s Adam Rubin had the news on Twitter:

MLB.com’s Paul Casella also had a report following the news, noting that the New York fans in attendance at the 2013 MLB All-Star Game are going to love the fact that both teams in the state are being well-represented. 

Here’s an excerpt from Casella’s report:

Each captain will be tasked with selecting three other hitters from his own league to complete his respective Home Run Derby team. Though the Home Run Derby remains an individual competition, the leagues will once again be pitted against each other in teams of four.

Wright will be looking to form a team that can slug its way to some revenge after the AL dominated the 2012 Home Run Derby. The four Junior Circuit representatives combined to hit 61 home runs last season whereas their Senior Circuit counterparts tallied just 21 long balls.

Former captains include David Ortiz, Prince Fielder, Matt Kemp and Cano. Cano is making his second straight appearance as the AL captain. He won the event in 2011, but was bested last year by Fielder in another Derby classic. 

The American League is riding a three-game winning streak in the Home Run Derby and also has won five out of the last six contests. 

The Yankees tweeted their support for the slugger with this message following the announcement:

Cano is fifth in the AL with 15 home runs, while Wright is considerably further down the board in the NL, having only totaled eight bombs in just 58 games. This will be Wright’s first appearance in the Home Run Derby since 2006. 

SportsNet New York posted this tweet with both stars pictured as the debate over the other six participants begins:

Conversation about who should be participating will start with the American side, where Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles leads the league in long balls with 20. Detroit Tigers star Miguel Cabrera isn’t far behind with 18, while Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn and Mark Trumbo/Nelson Cruz/Cano round out the top five. 

Cabrera’s teammate, Tigers ace Justin Verlander, even wants to get in on the action this year, campaigning for fans to vote him into the event to add a new element to the slugger-only contest (via MLB on Twitter):

On the National League side, youngsters lead the conversation. 

Philadelphia Phillies star-in-the-making Domonic Brown leads the NL in home runs with 19, while Colorado Rockies teammates Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki lead the rest of the pack that includes Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis and Carlos Beltran. 

Another hot name that will likely grab headlines is Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Yasiel Puig, who already has four home runs in eight games while completely captivating L.A. faithful over his first week in the bigs. 

Others to consider include fellow Cuban Yoenis Cespedes of the Oakland Athletics and Texas Ranger Adrian Beltre. 

For now, the focus will remain on both Cano and Wright, two of the sport’s biggest stars who will appeal to the New York crowd that will gravitate to Queens for the Midsummer Classic. 

The pair battled for the United States and Dominican Republic at the 2013 World Baseball Classic, with Cano’s nation emerging victorious and proving the Americans still have a long way to go before claiming baseball world dominance. 

Wright and Cano have accounted for over 400 home runs between them during their time in the majors, and the hometown flavor of New York undoubtedly influenced the selection of the Derby captains. 

Expect speculation about the other six participants to start running rampant—every baseball fan has a different set of stars they’d like to see in baseball’s moon-shot competition each summer. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

By this time next week, MLB will have thrown their first pitch. Before that, they’ll pitch several players on to the DL. Injuries often become the deciding factor in many of those last-minute roster decisions. A player may be healthy now, but might have missed opportunities to impress the coaching staff earlier in the spring due to even minor injuries.

We’ll begin the season with a number of big-name players on the DL, but remember that at the start of the season, there’s a bit of a loophole. Teams can put players on the DL with a “retroactive move,” in essence post-dating the start of the DL stint. This year, it means that a player that has not played in a major league exhibition game from March 22 can come off early, as soon as April 6. 

To do this, the players have to be held out of games, and you can see several teams doing this around the league. A player can play in minor league games and preserve the retro move, so as with Derek Jeter and others, they’ve essentially already started the process. Look for a number of these moves to happen this week, giving a short-term roster relief that will allow a team to bring a 26th or 27th player north, delaying that hard final roster decision a bit more.

There’s a lot of injuries to check out around the league, as there will be every week of the season, so powered by Yasiel Puig, let’s get to it:

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David Wright could be out for the rest of the World Baseball Classic with sore ribs, and Team USA officials already have the perfect replacement and another great young third baseman on their radar in Chase Headley of the San Diego Padres.

Speaking to Bill Center of the San Diego Union Tribune, Headley did indeed say that he has been contacted about joining the team should they advance to the finals by defeating Puerto Rico tonight.

“Team USA reached out to see if I was interested,” said Headley. “I am. It’s always been a dream of mine to play for Team USA. Obviously, I hate to see someone get hurt.”

No matter how you look at it, Wright’s skills and leadership make him a huge loss for both Team USA and his New York Mets. Prior to his injury, he was batting .438 and leading the United States with one home run and 10 RBI.

Playing for the Mets in 2012, he hit .306 with 21 home runs and 93 RBI, plus 15 steals while also representing the National League at the All-Star Game. In every way, shape and form, losing him would be a terrible blow to Team USA’s WBC championship aspirations.

Unless, of course, Headley replaces him on the roster.

Not only is Headley two years younger than Wright, at 28 years old, but he also gives Team USA a fourth switch-hitter in addition to Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Ben Zobrist.

He hasn’t yet shown as keen an ability to hit for average as well as Wright does, but just take a look at his numbers from spring training this season.

Through 10 Grapefruit League games, Headley is hitting .440 with three RBI and two extra-base hits. The power he showcased last season has yet to make an appearance, but that is another reason why Team USA should bring him aboard should they advance to the next round.

Hitting for power is one thing that Headley does just as well as Wright, if not better. Last season, he hit .286 with a career-best 31 home runs, 115 RBI and .376 OBP. 13 of those long balls came in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, so it’s clear just how powerful Headley‘s swing is.

That all being said, there is really no reason why Headley should not replace Wright on Team USA’s roster should the United States defeat Puerto Rico tonight.

Wright was the heart and soul of the team’s offense, and bringing in Headley to take over is a far better move than rolling the dice with utility infielder Willie Bloomquist or moving Ryan Braun to the hot corner—where he has not played since committing 26 errors there during his rookie season in 2007.

The fact of the matter is that Headley is one of the best young third basemen in MLB right now and if Team USA makes the next round, bringing him aboard would be the best move in order to ensure a potential WBC championship.

If anyone’s going to replace David Wright, there really isn’t anyone better than him.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The population of third basemen in Major League Baseball is talented and getting increasingly young, and with the promotion of Manny Machado and impending ascension of top prospects Anthony Rendon, Nick Castellanos and Mike Olt (if he stays at 3B), the position is getting deeper and becoming even younger.. 

With that said, it should be understood the position has several question marks among the top echelon of players (ie, health issues, consistency issues), so in consideration of the depth of the position it may be advisable to wait until the middle rounds to make a selection if you do not get one of the top three or four options.

Of course, even in the middle rounds there will be some questions that attach to your selection, but if you’re going to select a third baseman with some questions it would be better to gamble with a fifteenth round pick than a fourth or fifth round pick.

(NOTE: Hanley Ramirez is included among the shortstops, as opposed to the third basemen)

Related articles: Top 10 Catchers, Top 10 First Basemen, Top 10 Second Basemen

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