Kuzul

To say that Atlanta Braves fans have been disappointed in him over his first two years would be somewhat of an understatement.

As far as I can remember, the only time we had been completely satisfied with his performance was after his first start with the Braves, when he shut out the Philadelphia Phillies for eight innings on Opening Night last season.

Maybe (just maybe) it’s time to feel happy again (or at least not disappointed) with Lowe. Since the beginning of August, Lowe has posted a 3.23 ERA despite going just 3-3 over that span. Lowe did skip one start in the rotation, and has come back dominant as ever in September.

In his first start of the month, Lowe kept the Braves from getting swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates with six innings of one-run ball. In his last start, which was arguably his best as a Brave (you could make a start for his first, as the Phillies are a much better team than the Nationals), Lowe fanned 12 batters in eight shutout innings to give the Braves the win in the series opener.

Perhaps Lowe has finally turned a corner in which he can be the pitcher the Braves first expected when they gave him a huge contract following the 2008 campaign. In his career, Lowe’s best month has been September (3.30 ERA) and if he continues this trend, he could end up being more valuable to the Braves down the stretch than Tim Hudson.

The Braves initially gave Lowe a big contract as a direct result of his post season success, which we may finally see this year. Lowe and Hudson are the only two Braves starters with playoff experience, and Lowe has been the better of the two in the playoffs (granted, it is a small sample size for both pitchers).

If Lowe continues to pitch well, he will increase the Braves chances of making the playoffs and might finally get to show us his good post season work. With good work in the playoffs, Lowe might finally start earning the contract that so many Braves fans have regretted for the better part of two years.

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What happened to Derek Lowe?

In the offseason of 2009, the Atlanta Braves signed Derek Lowe to a four-year, $60 million dollar contract. Lowe was one of the most accomplished pitchers in baseball. He was the man who broke the curse of the Bambino, he threw the first no-no in Fenway since 1965, and in his four previous years, his ERA never climbed above four.

Since 2005, the only National League pitcher to win more games than Lowe is Roy Oswalt.

That was the old Derek Lowe.

Lowe has not been absolutely terrible for the Braves, but he has definitely not proven to be the pitcher that they invested $60 million dollars in. Last year, his ERA flirted with five points and this year, Lowe has been far from great.

Lowe’s recent struggles have left people wondering if the old Lowe rider has any gas left in the tank.

Baseball is a sport of a million statistics and there may just be a few stats that could explain the sudden free-fall of Derek Lowe’s career.

Lowe’s four years in Los Angeles were the best four years of his baseball career. His average ERA was 3.59 and Lowe was striking out six men per nine innings. He was pitching consistently and winning more games than the majority of pitchers in the NL.

Just about when the Braves thought they were getting one of the best pitchers in baseball, Lowe ran out of luck.

Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding HRs) for which the batter is credited with a hit. This sabermetric stat is used to determine if a pitcher’s season is dependent on luck.

While with the Dodgers, Lowe had an average BABIP of .291. This is slightly below the average BABIP of .300, so some could say that while in Hollywood, Lowe was slightly lucky.

When Lowe travelled down south to join the Braves, his fortunate luck did not join him. Lowe’s BABIP skyrocketed to .330 and although this year’s .309 is a slight improvement from 2009, it is still considered above average.

However, even if luck is fighting Lowe every step of the way, the reason for his struggle is quite simpler than that.

Lowe is not the same pitcher that he used to be. The 37-year-old is still a great number three pitcher to have on a starting rotation, but his pitches have lost some of that nasty movement on them and his numbers have suffered because of it.

If indeed the Atlanta Braves do reach the postseason for the first time since 2005, they will be glad to have a guy like Derek Lowe on their team. No matter his struggles, Lowe has proven to be a fantastic postseason pitcher and he is one of the few Braves that can provide October experience to a young Atlanta Braves team.

This article is also featured on Sports Haze.

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On getaway day, the Braves concluded their first post All-Star break homestand with an 8-0 shutout of the San Diego Padres at Turner Field. With Tim Hudson leading the way on the mound, and Alex Gonzalez’s four-hit day leading an offense that had six different players drive in runs—this was the epitome of a Braves quality win.

Atlanta currently owns a 7.0 game lead in the NL East, with an NL-best 56-39 record, as both Philadelphia and New York look up at the Braves with identical 49-46 records.

With the Braves about to embark on their second nine-plus game road trip of the season, let’s examine the upcoming road stretch, as well as the remaining schedule in the second half.

The Braves upcoming road trip will not log as many miles as the Arizona-Los Angeles-Minnesota trip in June that ended with four-game splits out west, and winning two of three at Target Field.

Currently the Braves are 34-13 in 47 home games (34 games remaining), and 22-26 in 48 road games (33 games remaining).

JULY 23-25 @ FLORIDA

While the Marlins are playing some good baseball right now, the Braves will be fortunate to miss their two best starters—Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco.

Friday, July 23 : Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) hasn’t faced the Marlins yet this season, and will be opposed by Alex Sanabia (1-1, 2.12 ERA). Lowe hasn’t fared well against the Marlins in the past, going 1-2 with an ERA of 5.71 in six starts since the beginning of 2007.

Sanabia, he of the two career starts and 19 major league innings under his belt, has a good ERA, but his other statistics aren’t quite as impressive. He’s never made it out of the sixth inning and gives up his fair share of baserunners. The Braves have been hit or miss with pitchers they’ve seen for the first time.

Saturday, July 24: Kris Medlen (6-2, 3.31 ERA) returns to his slot in the rotation to face off against Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 3.62 ERA). This will be the third time the Braves have faced Sanchez, who is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA against Atlanta this year. Sanchez has struggled in July, with an ERA over 6.00.

Medlen won his only start against Florida, giving up one run in 6.1 innings on July 1. Medlen’s only two losses came as a reliever. However, as a starter, he’s 6-0, and the Braves have only lost one of his 11 starts.

Sunday, July 25 : Jair Jurrjens (3-3, 4.25 ERA) pitches the finale Sunday afternoon against Chris Volstad (4-8, 4.78). Jurrjens has been fantastic in his four starts since returning from the DL (3-0, 2.21 ERA) and carries a 3-1 career record against the Fish in six starts. Volstad hasn’t had a great year, and carries a 1-2 record in four starts against the Braves since the beginning of 2007 into the Sunday matinee.

Prediction: The Braves have won two of three in both previous series with the Marlins this season—and it should continue. If Lowe pitches well on Friday, or the Braves can jump on the rookie, Jurrjens might have a chance to sweep the Fish away. Best bet for a victory is Jurrjens in the finale.

JULY 27-29 @ WASHINGTON

Tuesday, July 27 : I wouldn’t be surprised to see MLB Network pick up this game matching Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) and Stephen Strasburg (5-2, 2.32 ERA).

Hanson’s owns a 3-0 career against the Nationals, and would be even better if the bullpen hadn’t blown a win for him last year. He beat Washington in early May in his only start against them this year.

Strasburg pitched well against the Braves but wound up on the losing end of a 5-0 shutout on June 28. I know this is nitpicking, but the stud rookie has come down to earth and has averaged less than 6.0 IP per start since June 23.

If both pitchers are on, we could see a lot of hitters blown away on both sides by high 90s fastballs and wicked breaking balls.

Wednesday, July 28 : Tim Hudson (10-5, 2.47 ERA) hopes to follow his scoreless outing against the Padres and out-duel Livan Hernandez (7-6, 3.12 ERA). Hernandez beat the Braves when the two teams played in May, but has a 6.29 ERA against Atlanta over the previous three seasons.

Hudson was the winner on June 28, pitching seven shutout innings to beat Strasburg and the Nats. He got a no decision against Washington in a 3-2 loss in early May, giving up two runs in seven innings. He’s been a Nat killer, going 8-0 with an ERA of about 1.50 since the beginning of 2007.

Thursday, July 29:   Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.39 ERA) pitches the finale in Washington facing Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50 ERA). These two faced off at Turner Field three weeks ago, as the Nationals beat Lowe and the Braves 7-2.

This month, Stammen has generally struggled, going 0-2 with an ERA over 7.00. Lowe is 4-5 against the Nats since the beginning of 2007, with a respectable 3.76 ERA.

Prediction: The Braves lost two out of three at Nationals Park in early May, and won two of three at Turner Field in late June. The way the Braves and Nats are playing now are more like they were in late June, rather than early May, when the Braves weren’t hitting, and the Nats were playing quite well. Chalk up another two out of three to make it a 4-2 record so far on the road trip. Best bet – Hudson dominates Washington, and should continue to do so on Wednesday.

JULY 30 – AUGUST 1 @ CINCINNATI

Friday, July 30 : Kris Medlen (6-2, 3.19 ERA) faces ace Johnny Cueto (9-2, 3.39 ERA) to open the series in the Queen City. 

Cueto is 1-0 in two career starts against the Braves, with the Reds winning close games both times, beating Atlanta in 2008, and getting a no-decision in a 4-2 win at Turner Field in September 2009. 

Saturday, July 31 : The trade deadline comes and goes as Jair Jurrjens hopes to continue his successful string of starts since being activated to take on Mike Leake (7-1, 3.45 ERA).

Leake got a no-decision in the game the Braves made the 9th inning comeback. He allowed three runs (one earned) in six innings before giving way to a bullpen that eventually imploded.

Jurrjens has had some bad luck against the Reds in the past. He struggles against them in 2008, but left with the lead before the Braves bullpen gave up the lead and eventually the win. In his two 2009 starts against the Reds, he took the losses both times. One game he left down 1-0 after 2.0 innings because of a rain delay, and the other, was a 3-1 loss in September, where he tossed seven solid innings, but got no run support.

Sunday, August 1 : Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12 ERA) hopes to make up for his last start against the Reds as he closes out the series and the road trip to face Bronson Arroyo (10-5, 4.25 ERA) in the finale.

At the outset, this has all the making of a Reds blowout win, but Hanson was sick that day, pitched horribly, and the Braves still won on Brooks Conrad’s pinch-hit, walk-off grand slam. In his other career start against the Reds, Hanson pitched six innings of three-hit shutout baseball to earn the win.

Arroyo seems to be either Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde when facing the Braves. Since he joined the Reds before the 2006 season, Arroyo is 3-3 in seven starts against Atlanta, with a 7.48 ERA.

In his three wins, Arroyo is 3-0, with a 1.39 ERA in 19.1 IP.

In the other four starts, Arroyo is 0-3 with a 14.29 ERA in 17.0 IP.

Prediction: The Braves showed the late inning magic in sweeping a two-game set from the Reds in May. The Reds have struggled some lately. Hanson shakes off his last start against the Reds, and Jurrjens finally gets the best of Cincinnati as the Braves take two out of three. Best bet is the Braves getting to Arroyo early on Sunday, to finish a nine-game road trip with a 6-3 record, and returning home twenty games over .500 at 62-42.

AFTER THE ROAD TRIP. . .

Remaining Road Schedule

The Braves will return home from Cincinnati to host the Mets and Giants. The Braves have four road trips remaining (24 games) and they break down as follows

August:

Three games: Three @ Houston (3-0 at Turner Field)

Six games: Three @ Chicago Cubs (2-1 at Turner Field)
                Three @ Colorado (2-1 at Turner Field)

September :

Six games: Three @ Florida (4-2 this season)
               Three @ Pittsburgh (5-1 this season)

Nine games: Three @ NY Mets (3-5 this season, 1-4 at Citi Field)
                 Three @ Philadelphia (7-5 this season, 3-3 at Citizens Bank Park)
                 Three @ Washington (3-3 this season, 1-2 at Nationals Park)

Analysis:

The Braves have a combined 10-2 record against the NL central teams they still have to face on the road this year. With the Cubs in turmoil, and Houston and Pittsburgh being the doormats of the division, I don’t expect much of a change.

Citi Field has not been the Braves’ friend this year, but two of those losses the Braves gave away during their nine-game losing streak in April. They’ve played the Mets better since. Philly could be shutting it down if they’re too far out, or they could have recharged with a healthy Chase Utley, Jamie Moyer, Placido Polanco, and perhaps a starting pitcher addition.

The best series to watch for on the road would be at Colorado in mid-August, and at Philadelphia in mid-September.

Prediction: Braves win 13 or 14 out of their final 24 road games. Their final road record would be 41-40 give or take a game.

Remaining Home Schedule

Starting with the series against the Mets in early August the Braves play 34 of their final 58 games at home, where they’ve won at a .723 clip – the best in the majors this season.

August:

Seven games: Three vs NY Mets (1-1 at Turner Field, 3-5 overall)
                    Four vs San Francisco (1-2 at AT&T Park in April)

Seven games: Four vs LA Dodgers (2-2 at Dodgers Stadium)
                   Three vs Washington (2-1 at Turner Field, 3-3 overall)

Seven games: Three vs Florida (2-1 at Turner Field, 4-2 overall)
                    Four vs NY Mets

September:

Seven games: Four vs St. Louis (0-4 at Busch Stadium in April)
                    Three vs Washington

Six games: Three vs Florida
               Three vs Philadelphia (4-2 at Turner Field, 7-5 overall)

Analysis:

The Braves home schedule is tougher than their road schedule the rest of the season, just from a team record standpoint. They’ve played the Mets, Phillies, and Giants much better at home than on the road in the recent past and that will likely continue. However, the Braves’ final home series vs Philadelphia may not matter too much, as it’s the last weekend of the season.

The Mets aren’t a good road team, and have showed it lately by going 1-6 on a west coast road trip to Arizona and San Francisco, and should be 0-7 if Phil Cuzzi doesn’t miss the call at home on Sunday. I expect the Braves I see the Braves winning 5 of the 7 remaining home game with the Mets, and four of the six remaining with both Florida and Washington.

Depending on the pitching match-ups, a split might not be a bad thing against the Cardinals, especially if Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia and (maybe Oswalt) pitch in that series. The Dodgers are a better home team and the Braves winning 3 in that series is not out of the question. In past years, the series between the Giants and Braves have generally favored the home team, regardless of their records.

Prediction: The Braves win 22 or 23 of their final 34 home games. Their final home record will be 56-25, give or take a game.

Adding it up. The Braves are on pace to finish with a record of 97-65, their best since the 2003 season when they won 100 games for the second straight year. That should give them at least one home-field series as they return to the playoffs for the first time since 2005.

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Following the 2008 season, Braves GM Frank Wren made it clear that he was looking to acquire at least two starting pitchers to bolster the rotation and lead the Braves back into the playoffs.

While Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami eventually made their way to Atlanta, the Braves wanted an ace, and targeted a couple big name pitchers.

It’s tough to find anyone who would consider the Braves signing of Derek Lowe a success (or even mediocre, for that matter), but things actually could have gone worse for the Braves.

The two other big name pitchers the Braves looked into that season were Jake Peavy (who was already with the Padres) and free agent A.J. Burnett (who eventually signed with the Yankees).

Before we begin going into who has performed better, we can take a look at the contracts of all three players.

Lowe, as many Braves fans know, was given a four-year, $60 million deal, to become the staff ace. The contract was broken up evenly, so Lowe would earn $15 million in each year.

Burnett, whom the Braves targeted before Lowe, was signed for the Yankees for five years and $82.5 million. His contract was also broken up evenly, so he makes $1.5 million a year more than Lowe.

Peavy’s contract is a bit more complicated. He made just $11 million in 2009, and is making $15 million in 2010. Over the next two seasons, he will make $33 million, meaning his four year total ($59 million) would make him the cheapest of all three options. Peavy also has a club option of $22 million in 2013.

One thing that is important to note about Peavy is that he would have cost more than just the money, as the Braves would have had to give up prospects (the Padres wouldn’t settle for any package that didn’t include Tommy Hanson) which essentially makes him cost more than Lowe.

But it’s not surprising that Lowe costs the least; after all, he is easily considered to be worse than the former Cy Young winner Peavy and the electric Burnett.

But you can make a case that Lowe has been better than Peavy or Burnett in the first two years of his contract.

Lowe vs. Peavy

When looking at Lowe vs. Peavy, the stats clearly favor Peavy (although Lowe actually has a better ERA so far in 2010, Peavy was much better, ERA-wise, in 2009).

Despite making fewer starts, Peavy has a WAR of 4.4 over 1.5 seasons compared to Lowe’s 4.2. The reason the numbers are so close is that Peavy has spent a significant amount of time on the DL (where he will be spending the rest of this season).

By time 2010 closes, Lowe will likely have a higher WAR than Peavy, although Peavy was more dominant when on the hill.

This doesn’t make Lowe better than Peavy, but considering Peavy’s major durability issues, I wouldn’t want to be on the hook for $33 million over the next two years.

Lowe vs. Burnett

Interestingly enough, Lowe has bested Burnett in both FIP and xFIP in 2009 and 2010. More importantly, Lowe seems to be on the upswing while Burnett is busy injuring himself in the dugout.

Lowe’s 4.39 ERA in 2010 is much better than Burnett’s (4.99) and both pitchers are a little higher than their FIP right now.

WAR wise, Lowe has won the battle 4.2 to 3.8 over the life of the contract, and these two are more comparable since they have made roughly the same number of starts.

The Derek Lowe signing could have gone a lot worse for the Braves.

If I had to rank the three pitchers, with nothing else included, I would take Peavy, Lowe, and then Burnett.

When financial aspects become involved, Lowe is clearly a better option than Burnett so far, and the Braves will get his contract off the books sooner than the Yankees can.

With money considered, I would take Peavy over Lowe. With the Braves’ great pitching depth, they could afford a guy like Peavy who could dominate when healthy even if that was only part of the season.

But when you throw in the fact that the Braves would have had to give up a large package of prospects (again, likely  including Tommy Hanson), I think that the Lowe move was the best of any possible deals the Braves could have made prior to the 2009 season.

As the season progresses, I’m sure everyone will be frustrated to watch our $15 million pitcher muddle in mediocrity; but it’s important to know that had the Braves acquired Peavy or signed Burnett (especially if the Braves had signed Burnett) things likely would be even worse.

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With five All-Stars and 50-plus wins before the break, the Atlanta Braves look very strong going into the second half of the 2010 season.

They’ve combined their stellar pitching staff with timely hitting (16 wins in their last at-bat before the All-Star Break) and have steered clear of the Phillies and Mets to jump out to a 4-game lead in the NL East.

The Braves have certainly given Bobby Cox a season to remember in his last campaign, but let’s take a quick look on where the team is headed to try to predict if its second half can match up to their first.

First we’ll start with a positional breakdown on this Braves’ squad.

Begin Slideshow

Former Braves Return to Atlanta for Three Game Series

Former Braves coach Ned Yost and former Braves players Bruce Chen, Kyle Davies, Kyle Farnsworth, and Wilson Betemit returned to Atlanta for a three game series at Turner Field.

Yost, now the manager of the Kansas City Royals, served on the Braves coaching staff from 1991 to 1998 as the bullpen coach and from 1999 to 2002 as the first base coach.

Chen spent most of his first three seasons in the majors with the Braves from 1998 to 2000. While in Atlanta, Chen appeared in 44 games (11 starts) and went 8-2 with a 4.13 ERA.

Kyle Davies was a product of the Braves farm system and pitched in Atlanta from 2005 to 2007. In two plus seasons with the Braves, Davies started 45 games and compiled a record of 13-22 before being traded to Kansas City in July of 2007.

After spending his first six seasons with the Cubs, reliever Kyle Farnsworth split the 2005 season between the Tigers and Braves. In Atlanta, Farnsworth went 0-0 and registered 10 saves in 26 games with a 1.98 ERA. His strikeout/walk ratio was 4.57 and he had an impressive .805 WHIP.

Because Betemit plays third base, his playing time was sporadic because the Braves already had a full-time third baseman in Chipper Jones. From 2001 to 2006, Betemit appeared in 233 games with Atlanta. He hit .281 in 495 at-bats, scored 69 runs, hit 13 home runs, and had 52 RBI before being traded to the Dodgers in 2006.

It was nice to see these familiar faces back at Turner Field even though they were now sporting Royal blue. I’m sure it was nice for them to return and reunite with some of their old Atlanta teammates as well.

Then they started to play baseball.

Game One

In the first game of the series, the Braves beat Kansas City 6-4 behind a quality start from Derek Lowe, who also helped himself out with the bat by driving in two runs.

Struggling Chipper Jones had a hit, a walk, and drove in two runs. Melky Cabrera went 3-4, scored two runs, and drove in another.

Jose Guillen of the Royals recorded a hit to extend his hitting-streak to 13 games. Billy Butler, who idolized Chipper Jones growing up, hit his seventh home run of the season off of Lowe in the fourth inning.

Game Two

The Braves won the second game of the series 5-4 on a Troy Glaus walk-off solo home run in the bottom of the ninth inning.

The Braves’ Kris Medlen battled stumbling Royals ace Zack Greinke pitch-for-pitch, and he left the game in the sixth inning with a chance to earn the win. However, the bullpen would blow the lead and Medlen would have to settle for a no-decision.

After the Royals tied the game in the seventh, Venters pitched a perfect eighth inning. Billy Wagner would follow with a perfect top of the ninth become the pitcher of record and earn the win. He improved his record to 5-0 with a 1.27 ERA in addition to his 14 saves.

The Royals’ Scott Podsednik and Jason Kendell each had two RBI, Mike Aviles and Yunieski Betancourt each scored twice, and Jose Guillen extended his hitting streak to 14 games.

Zack Greinke went seven innings, gave up four runs (three earned), and struck out five Braves in a no-decision.

Last year’s A.L. Cy Young winner is just 2-8 with a 3.94 ERA through 15 starts this season.

Game Three

Former Brave Kyle Davies took the mound for the Royals as they tried to avoid a sweep. However he struggled with his control and lasted only 4.1 innings. He gave up four runs on four hits, walked seven batters, and struck out six.

Strangely, Davies fared better than Braves starter Kenshin Kawakami who lasted only two innings. He gave up five runs (four earned) on six hits and only struck out one Royal.

However, the Braves bullpen pitched seven innings of shut-out baseball, and the Braves offense was able to come through again to earn the 8-5 victory and a series sweep.

Chipper Jones went 2-3 with two doubles and three RBI. He also raised his batting average to .250 in the process. Jones is on a small five game hitting streak with five runs, seven RBI, and a .471 batting average in that stretch.

Jose Guillen extended his hitting-streak to a career best 15 games in the losing effort as he recorded two hits, two runs, and one RBI in five plate appearances.

Thoughts on the series

This was certainly not the result Ned Yost and company had hoped for. The Royals are now 29-41 on the season and are 11.5 games behind Minnesota in the A.L. Central. They’ll try to rebound as they travel to Washington, D.C. to take on the Nationals on Monday.

On the positive side for Kansas City, they were able to score an average of more than four runs per game, and they’re not swinging the bats all that poorly.

With the sweep, Atlanta has now won five straight and have increased their lead in the division to 2.5 games.

This marks the 13th consecutive series the Braves have won this season. Bobby Cox has preached the importance of winning series for the last 20 years, and the Braves are doing just that.

The Braves are winning games with their hitting and pitching, and they’re firing on all cylinders.

Troy Glaus continues to swing a hot bat, Martin Prado already has 101 hits this season, and Chipper Jones looks like he may be heating up.

Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe are anchoring the starting rotation and Billy Wagner has been outstanding as the Braves closer this season. The Braves reemphasis on pitching seems to be paying dividends.

It’s always good to see former Braves come back to Turner Field, and it’s even better to be on the winning end.

Does anyone think Ned Yost might make another return to Turner Field as Braves Manager in 2011 replacing Bobby Cox?

It could happen.

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It’s a wonder seeing a starting pitcher winless this far into the season. After 13 or 14 starts, one would expect several wins, losses, and no decisions from them. When you’re paying a guy over $7 million to pitch for your team, you expect a few wins, especially if your team’s in first place.

The Baltimore Orioles feel this way about Kevin Millwood, certainly. He has 14 appearances, a 5.16 ERA, an 0-8 record, and leads the American League in home runs and hits allowed. It could be that his career is nearing his end.

He’s not the hard-luck pitcher of 2005, but a battered down shell of himself.

Atlanta Braves pitcher Kenshin Kawakami, on the other hand, could be the new heir to the hard luck crown, or an absolute joke, depending on one’s view.

He currently has an 0-9 record, a 4.42 ERA, 25 walks, 50 strikeouts, and a WHIP of 1.418  in 13 games. Most of those stats look like ones from your typical 4th or 5th starter, except for that first one.

In Kawakami’s case, should he really be winless this far into the season? That answer is a resounding no. Atlanta’s 3-10 when he starts, which isn’t good by any means, but let’s look at those three wins:

May 14 vs. Arizona—Four runs, three earned in 4.1 innings. The Braves won thanks to a two-run ninth, 6-5, so no credit to Kawakami there.

May 19 vs. Cincinnati—Kawakami threw six shutout innings with five strikeouts, but the Reds scored eight runs in the eighth to tie the game and give Kawakami the no decision. He would have gotten the win if not for a rare bad performance by Takashi Saito.

June 9 vs. Arizona—Same story. Six shutout innings, eight K’s, but no run support until the eighth inning. Should have a win.

So Kawakami should have at least two wins in those shutouts. Does he deserve the losses he has though? He gave up at least three runs in each of those losses, so I can’t write any of them off.

A 2-9 record is nonetheless still quite poor, and still keeps him in the company of Wandy Rodriguez and Charlie Morton, both of whom have nine losses, though they have wins at least.

Kawakami’s other stats also seem to support the hard-luck theory. He’s not in the top 10 NL pitchers in any bad categories (hits allowed, earned runs, wild pitches, etc.) and his WAR is a very average 0.0. In fact, his WAR, ERA+, and WHIP are all better, albeit slightly, than fellow Braves’ pitcher Derek Lowe, who is sitting pretty with an 8-5 record.

To argue the side of him being bad though, he needs to keep the earned runs down if he wants to win. If he allows three earned and the Braves lose, 3-2, then oh well, he should’ve allowed fewer. Furthermore, he has one very concerning stat: He has never finished out the seventh inning, and five times he failed to make it past the fifth.

It’s hard to win a game when you don’t pitch a good deal of it.

Nonetheless, I’m going to fall into the camp that thinks Braves’ fans need to give the guy a break. He’s not pitching all that well, but he’s not terrible. Some teams would love to have him. I’m sure the Orioles would trade Millwood for him, and the Pirates could use a decent starter (Never said they were good teams).

It’s difficult to think of a pitcher for a first place team as hard-luck, but if anyone falls under that umbrella besides Zack Greinke, it’s Kawakami. He allows some earned runs, but they’re few enough that Heyward or Prado should be able to knock a few runs in for him.

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When Frank Wren replaced John Schuerholz as General Manager a couple of years ago, Braves’ fans were undoubtedly skeptical that he could come in and make such a difference. I think now that even the skeptics can be silenced by the performance of Frank Wren in building a ballclub that can be defined by words like “deep,” “versatile,” and “talented.”

Tonight showed just how those words ring true about the 2010 Atlanta Braves.

In Bobby Cox’s last season, the Braves wanted to make a run for the pennant. The roster at the start looked tentatively good, but it remained to be seen if this club could do well. The first month of the season was atrocious for the Braves. No one could seem to hit, pitching fell through more times than not, and a couple of guys carried the load for keeping this Braves squad from hitting the bottom of the pond. Boy, has that changed.

Flash to tonight’s game against the Minnesota Twins. Derek Lowe, a pickup by Frank Wren in the free agent market in January 2009, came out of the gate strong, giving up two runs and keeping the big bashers of the Minnesota lineup subdued. His official line was 7.1 innings, six hits, two runs (both of them earned), three walks, and four strikeouts. He left with the game tied at two runs apiece, with Eric O’Flaherty entering and retiring Justin Morneau.

Then Peter Moylan, who owns a nearly 9.00 ERA in his last 10 appearances (8.57), entered and walked Michael Cuddyer, and displayed his frustration by barking at home plate umpire Jerry Layne on a pitch that was proven to be a ball low and inside. The next pitcher to enter could arguably be considered the best middle reliever the Braves have in their bullpen—Jonny Venters.

Venters came on to face the lefty Jason Kubel and, after running the count to 2-2 and Kubel fouling a couple of balls off, Venters whizzed a 94 mph fastball by Kubel middle of the belt and away to end the inning. The top of the ninth held all of the suspense as the Braves sought to take the lead and keep the game from going into extras. The Braves did not fail to deliver.

After Melky Cabrera popped out, Gregor Blanco walked on four straight pitches. With Martin Prado hitting, Bobby Cox pulled a trick out of his hat and called for a hit-and-run. Prado singled to left and the hustling speedster Gregor Blanco went from first to third easily.

The next play displayed the genius of the man who is calling it quits after this season and shows just why Bobby Cox will be sorely missed next year.

With emerging star Brooks Conrad hitting, Bobby Cox called for a suicide squeeze, sending Blanco from third; Conrad made the perfect bunt and got on base himself, preserving the inning and scoring the go-ahead run from third. Jason Heyward, nursing a sore left thumb, fouled out to third and Brian McCann was blown away by an angry Jose Mijares.

Billy Wagner closed out the ninth to pick up the save and to preserve the win by Jonny Venters.

Key elements to the game included Eric Hinske (free agent this year), Eric O’Flaherty (waiver, 2009), Melky Cabrera [home run] (trade, offseason), Jonny Venters (draft, 2003 [Wren was the senior assistant GM]), Martin Prado (undrafted free agent, 2001), Brooks Conrad (free agent, offseason), Gregor Blanco (undrafted free agent, 2000), and Billy Wagner (free agent, offseason).

This team is chock full of talent that Frank Wren has either directly or indirectly been instrumental in bringing to Atlanta. Wren signed Troy Glaus, who has been exceptional for Atlanta. He signed Eric Hinske, whose clutch performances have vastly improved this Braves’ ballclub.

Brooks Conrad was mired in a Houston Astros organization that just had no room for him; he has since proven the Astros wrong. Eric O’Flaherty was left to die in the Seattle Mariners organization and then placed on the waiver wires; Atlanta deftly snagged this talented lefty at no cost to them. Billy Wagner has bounced back from surgery to regain his fastball and his dominance, going 11 for 13 in save opportunities.

This isn’t Wren’s first rodeo. He was instrumental, with Dave Dombrowski, in constructing the Marlins farm system and the 1997 team that won the World Series. Under Dombrowski, the Marlins’ front office was considered the best in baseball for several years (completely blameless in the firesale by Wayne Huizenga).

Wren was demonized in Baltimore for signing Albert Belle to such a massive contract, but Belle carried a reputation that warranted such a contract. All in all, Frank Wren has amassed a team that is rich in talent, incredibly deep, and, if all elements stay working together as they are now, just might give Bobby Cox the going away present of a lifetime: a World Series ring.

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Just to prove how random, and therefore essentially worthless, wins are as a statistic, check out the numbers of two pitchers below.

Pitcher #1 – 4.86 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 35 strikeouts, 29 walks and 63 innings pitched in 11 starts.

Pitcher #2 – 4.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 32 strikeouts, 15 walks and 56 innings pitched in 10 starts.

Pitcher #1 is Derek Lowe, owner of a 7-4 record, and pitcher #2 is Kenshin Kawakami, who currently sits atop an 0-7 record.  On the same team with across-the-board worse stats, Lowe is having a far superior year if you put much stock in wins as a viable stat.  What do you all think about this?  Do you think wins are overvalued or am I way off-base here? 

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As the month of May is drawing to a close, it’s hard to believe that coming into this month the Braves were in last place and just a game removed from a nine-game skid.

It almost feels like we are in a different season.

After a decent start to the month, the Braves caught fire—and have won five out of their last six series (the other series was a 1-1 split between the Braves and Mets).

As the Braves caught fire, the Phillies seemed to lose some of theirs, and the team which was heavily favored to return to the World Series holds a slim 1.5 game advantage over the Braves.

While a key series with the Phillies is on deck, the Braves first get a visit from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Just a week ago, the same two teams started a three game set, and the Braves won two.

After the series with the Pirates, the schedule gets much more difficult for the Braves, as they face the Phillies, Dodgers and Twins (as well as the struggling Diamondbacks) in the first half of June.

A series win over the Pirates would likely allow the Braves to play around .500 ball over that 13 game stretch and stay within striking distance of the Phillies.

Are Escobar and McCann Coming Around?

As good as the Braves have been recently, some of their players still have pretty bad stat lines. Among them are Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann, who typically are among the Braves most productive hitters.

After a terrible April, Brian McCann seems to be hitting like his old self again. In May, he hit .290 with three homeruns, and has raised his batting average 29 points along the way.

Although he is currently dealing with an arm injury, McCann is expected to be back in the lineup soon, and should continue to hit his way toward another Silver Slugger award.

Escobar hasn’t had the same success this month as McCann. He’s only played in about half the team’s games this month (due to an injury suffered the end of April) and has hit a meager .171 over that span.

But, Escobar is 4-6 over the past two games, and looks like he might finally be snapping out of his skid. A career .301 hitter coming into this year, he has nowhere to go but up as he is currently hitting .200.

Derek Lowe is Pitching Better (but still not worth the money)

It’s no secret that Derek Lowe has greatly underperformed since signing a huge free agent contract with the Braves.

In fact, you can probably count on one hand the number of people who expect him to return to his 2008 form (when he had a 3.24 ERA in his final year with the Dodgers).

But over his past three starts, Lowe has actually been solid, posting a 3.50 ERA over 18 innings of work.

While those numbers aren’t worth 15 million a year, I think that’s about as much as we can hope for from Lowe at this point.

Assuming that Jair Jurrjens can come back healthy and strong, the Braves would be in good position if Derek Lowe could just eat innings and keep his ERA around 4.00 for the rest of the year.

Upcoming Series: Atlanta Braves (25-22) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (20-28)

Derek Lowe (6-4, 5.30) vs. Zach Duke (3-4, 4.47)

Kris Medlen (1-1, 2.57) vs. Brian Burress (2-2, 5.40)

Kenshin Kawakami (0-7, 4.93) vs. Paul Maholm (3-4, 3.98)

The pitching matchups could have been better for the Braves, but I still think they will fare ok.

Zach Duke has been pitching great as of late (and beat Derek Lowe in his last start) so I think the Pirates will take the first game.

However, I think the Braves will win the last two games of the set, with Kenshin Kawakami finally getting his first win on Sunday.

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