Kuzul

Outside of the Milwaukee Brewers improving their starting rotation, I don’t think there is a team in baseball that improved one aspect of their team more than the Baltimore Orioles improved their infield. They went from having one of the most mediocre infields in 2010 to potentially having one of the best in 2011.

The Orioles went from Miguel Tejada/Josh Bell at third, Cesar Izturis at short and an injured Brian Roberts at second to Mark Reynolds at third, J.J. Hardy at short and a healthy Roberts at second. The last piece of the infield puzzle was to find an improvement over Ty Wigginton at first.

On New Year’s Eve, the Orioles found their replacement for Wigginton.

The Orioles signed first baseman Derrek Lee to a one-year contract. Official terms of the deal haven’t been disclosed yet, but according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports, Lee’s deal with the Orioles includes incentives and could be worth as much as $10 million.

This signing is just another example of why the Orioles are on the right track and why their neighbors, the Washington Nationals, are a clown show. Instead of going out and signing veterans to albatross contracts like the Nationals are doing, the Orioles are bringing in veterans to short-term contracts, so just in case they don’t pan out, they are not saddled with a poor contract that will hinder their organization’s development.

Signing Lee is a solid move by the Orioles.

There is zero risk to this signing. If he doesn’t work out, then the one-year contract won’t kill the Orioles long-term. If Lee does work out, then they could potentially flip him at the trade deadline for some prospects or maybe even get a draft pick for him if they let him walk next offseason.

Lee hit .260/.347/.428 with 19 home runs in 148 total games with the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves in 2010. At times, Lee’s bat looked slow and his strikeout percentage of 24.5 was his highest since his 2002 season (28.2 percent) with the Florida Marlins.

However, Lee was bothered by a bad thumb all year. He is fully healthy now, and if you couple that with a solid lineup around him and a hitter’s ballpark, then Lee could have a bounce-back season in 2011. Do I expect him to have a season like he did in 2009, when he hit .306/.393/.579 with 35 homers? No, I don’t. But a season in which he hits .280 with 25 bombs isn’t out of the question.

The Orioles have vastly improved their offense in 2011. Some people are even comparing them to the San Diego Padres of last season.

I don’t want to burst Oriole fans’ bubble here, but that is just not going to happen. And there is one simple reason why. The Orioles don’t play in the very average National League West. They play in the American League East, with the likes of the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. Even the Toronto Blue Jays won 85 games last season and are expected to be just as good in 2011.

The Orioles will win more than the 66 games they won in 2010 and could even be a .500 team in 2011 if everything breaks right and guys like Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman continue to show improvement. However, just because the Orioles won’t compete for a playoff spot in 2011 doesn’t mean they aren’t moving in the right direction.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @theghostofmlg

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After weeks of speculation, the Orioles finally signed their first baseman to finish the rebuilding of their infield. 

Derrek Lee will join recent signings J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds in making up the Orioles new infield, and more importantly, inject some power into an offense that was horribly stagnant in 2010.

The trio of Lee, Reynolds and Hardy will no doubt be better than last year’s trio of Ty Wigginton, Miguel Tejada and Cesar Izturis. However, exactly how much better it will be and whether it will be noticeable is a different story.

Starting with the pessimistic view – because after 13 terrible years, it is all the average Orioles fan has – all three are coming off dreadful seasons.

In fact, all three were very similar in that they saw diminished production due to spending the majority of the season playing through injury. 

Reynolds had issues with a quadriceps, Hardy had a deep bone bruise in his wrist, and Lee spent the entire season playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb.

This means that the entire Orioles infield will come into this season as injury prone. In addition to the injuries of Hardy, Reynolds and Lee, The Orioles infield is comprised of Matt Wieters, who played 130 games, and Brian Roberts, who was limited to just 59.

Considering the Orioles can’t afford another terrible season with this young core, a team full of injury-prone players seems like a big risk.

Lee is also 35 years old and many have questioned his bat speed and exactly how much he has left in the tank.

On the other hand, the Orioles just bought these three guys at their lowest possible values. They got Reynolds and Hardy with a couple of low-level prospects, and Lee with a one-year deal worth somewhere between $8 million and $10 million. 

If they can get healthy, all three can be solid players and could be the pieces the Orioles were missing last season. 

Reynolds is good for 40-plus home runs a year, and Hardy has good power for a shortstop. Finally, Lee has consistently batted .300 and been good for at least 20 home runs and 80 RBIs every season.

In comparison, the trio of Wigginton, Izturis and Tejada hit just 30 home runs and 143 RBIs in 2010 combined.

Add the numbers of the Reynolds, Hardy and Lee to the production outfield of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Felix Pie/Nolan Reimold, and the Orioles could have a fairly productive offense. 

It may not strike fear into pitchers like it would if management had been able to sign Paul Konerko or Victor Martinez, but it will be able to score runs pretty consistently, and that’s what’s important.

With the Red Sox getting better by adding the likes of Carl Crawford and the Yankees being, well, the Yankees, it is hard to predict what the Orioles will do in 2011.

However, after spending seemingly an eternity in the pits, maybe the Orioles are close to seeing the sun rise.

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The latest MLB rumors on Adrian Beltre, Rafael Soriano and Derrek Lee are here, and Bleacher Report has the inside track on where these players may be headed, for how many years and for how much. 

Beltre leads the class of remaining free agents, and although there are only a few teams reportedly in the sweepstakes, there may be a few dark-horse candidates that no one else is talking about.

As for Soriano, he represents the best remaining relief pitcher on the free-agent market, yet his name hasn’t appeared in many Hot Stove reports. While pitchers like Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler have found new homes, Soriano remains available.

Derrek Lee talks have heated up over the last week or so, and it appears he may be the closest to signing with a new team. 

All these discussions, speculations, predictions and more are in the latest addition of MLB Rumors.

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It is becoming painfully obvious that the Washington Nationals are doing everything they can to sign a competent major league first baseman this off season and the two players remaining—Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee—are doing everything they can to avoid signing here.

I mean, the math isn’t that difficult. The Orioles and Nationals need a first baseman and the only two left are Lee and LaRoche.

And yet the clock continues to tick. Most everyone was in agreement that the two would sign this week but as of yet all remains quiet. So what’s taking so long?

It can’t be about money. Derrek Lee wants $8-10 million, an amount both teams seem willing to pay. And it isn’t about contract length. Lee only wants a one-year deal and Adam LaRoche has already been offered a multi-year contract from the Orioles.

It’s as though both players keep waiting by the phone, hoping that some other team will sweep in the save them from the dire possibility of playing in Washington or Baltimore. But there just isn’t anyone else.

So it looks as though whichever first baseman the Nationals end up with is a player who doesn’t particularly want to be here. So if they don’t want to play in Washington, does Washington really want to watch them play?

General Manager Mike Rizzo all but promised upgrades around the diamond this off season, but other than the punch-in-the-stomach signing of Jayson Werth a month ago, nothing much has happened. Like a line of tumbling dominoes, one player after another either said no to a trade or their employers wouldn’t deal with the Nationals.

So 2011, it would appear, isn’t going to be that turnaround season we had all hoped for. Unless a handful of minor league “inventory” suddenly turns hot, the upcoming season is going to be a bridge to becoming a winning team, not a ladder.

But if a veteran first baseman won’t get the Nationals to the promised land (a .500 season), why not give the local talent one more try before bringing in the hired guns next year? Would it not make more sense to see what guys like Michael Morse can do before relegating them to part-time status?

Two good things are going to happen in 2012. First, many quality free agents will be available next fall. Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore and Edwin Jackson are just some of the names that could help fill holes on the team’s major league roster.

And second, 2012 will be the first season that the fruit of “The Plan” will begin to make a significant difference for the Nationals.

Here, take a look at which prospects should be available next season:

Chris Marrero

The 21-year-old just completed his fifth professional season and batted .294/.350/.450 for Double-A Harrisburg with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. For his career, the former Florida high schooler has averaged .281-21-91 over a 550 at-bat minor league season.

There is little doubt he won’t succeed against major league pitching. The problem has always been his fielding. Over the last two seasons, Marrero has committed a combined 38 errors.

Marrero was a Jim Bowden pick made during a time when the Nationals didn’t place any great emphasis on athleticism or defense. As a result, his best value will be as a trade-chip to an American League team. There is little doubt that he could excel as a designated hitter.

Stephen Lombardozzi

Lombardozzi is the guy who will make us all forget about Danny Espinosa when he too gets traded in the coming weeks or months. Over his three minor league seasons, Lombardozzi—also 21—has averaged .293/.373/.402 with 29 doubles, 9 triples and 21 stolen bases.

He is a defensive whiz, averaging just eight errors per season. He has a Gold Glove in him just waiting to break out.

Unlike Espinosa, who has more power but a tough time getting on base, Lombardozzi is an ideal lead off hitter who walks often and steals bases. He is the model of consistency and will be ready for the major leagues sometime late next summer.

Derek Norris

The 21-year-old Norris, who has averaged .261/.414/.462 with 25 homers and 93 RBI over 550 at-bats during his career, will begin his first season in Double-A in 2011 and should be ready for the major leagues by early 2012. Though his defense needs work, coaches and scouts are seeing improvement every season.

My guess is that his bat is so good that the Nationals will ultimately move him to another position to reduce wear-and-tear on his body. And don’t forget, the team already has Wilson Ramos (.278-1-5 in 79 major league at-bats) and Jesus Flores (.260-16-99 over 162 games) ready to share catching duties in 2012 or be used in a trade for pitching.

Bryce Harper

A lot of coaches and scouts think that Harper showed enough in the Arizona Fall League to start for the Nationals in 2012. The 18-year-old batted .343/.410/.629 with a homer and seven RBI in 35 at-bats. A strong season in the minors in 2011 and there is no reason not to believe he’ll be ready.

As a 19-year-old playing in his first year, Ken Griffey Jr. batted .264-16-61 with a .329 on-base percentage. After 200 at-bats over his first two seasons (.224-5-21), Alex Rodriguez hit .358-36-123 as a 20-year-old. I think Harper will be able to hit .275-15-60 in 2012.

Tom Milone

A John Lannan clone but with better control, the 23-year-old lefty has averaged 12-5, 2.88, 9.0/1.6/7.6 over the past two seasons at Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg. He has “advanced feel” for pitching and is able to hit his spots by changing speeds. For his career, Milone has a 7:1 strikeout to walk ration.

Milone has an average fastball and a plus-change. He added a cutter early in 2009 and since then his stats have gotten better at each level pitched.

At worst, he is another John Lannan, and the Nationals could use another guy like him in the rotation.

Cole Kimball

He was a mediocre starting pitcher for three seasons but became a quality reliever in 2009. Last season, he came out of nowhere to become part of the team’s future. Last season, Kimball pitched for Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg and went 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Playing in the Arizona Fall League, he was even better. In 11 games, he crafted a 0.75 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. Opponents batted just .186 against him.

Though he will spend some time with the Nationals in 2011, he will likely become a mainstay the following season. He has a 96-98 mph fastball and a big frame (6’3”, 240) so he should be able to maintain his power pitch throughout his career.

Sammy Solis

Solis, the Nationals’ second-round pick in last season’s amateur draft, allowed two hits and no walks while striking out three in four innings with Class-A Hagerstown last season. In the Arizona Fall League, Solis went 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA, striking out 12 in 23 innings.

At 6’5,” the lanky lefty has a deceptive motion that causes batters problems. His 92 mph fastball has “plus” movement and his curve has late action—an above average but not great pitch. He is one of those prospects who doesn’t have a really high ceiling but at the same time shouldn’t take too long to reach the major leagues. Most believe that he will be ready by 2012.

Let’s make an educated guess about the 2012 roster and see what it might look like:

Starting Rotation:

1—Stephen Strasburg: A real number-one starter

2—Jordan Zimmermann: Should be a quality number-two for years to come

3—John Lannan: A good number-four but can handle the three spot if he becomes a little more consistent

4—Yunesky Maya or Ross Detwiler: I think Maya can become a solid starter, a guy who can win 12-14 games a season.

5—Tom Milone or Sammy Solis: John Sickels grades Solis a “B” prospect (“prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role”) and requires “minimal” minor league seasoning before making it to Washington.

Without adding a free agent starter, the Nationals have seven quality pitchers for five spots in the rotation. All but one will be under 30 at the start of the 2012 season. That is certainly an above average rotation and the addition of one free agent star could make it second best in the division.

The bullpen could be even better (ages are in parenthesis)

Tyler Clippard (25) 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.1/11.1

Drew Storen (22) 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5

Sean Burnett (27) 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9

Doug Slaten (30) 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0

Colin Balester (24) 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/3.7/12.0

Cole Kimball (23) 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 (in minor leagues)

Henry Rodriguez (23) 2-0, 4.26, 8.2/4.3/10.5

Talk about a group of power arms! Every one of the players had a strikeout rate above eight per nine-innings.

And by 2012, the everyday positions should look something like this:

C—Wilson Ramos & Jesus Flores: They could combine for .275-15-60 with quality defense

1B—The team has yet to add this player to their roster. Marrero just doesn’t play good enough defense and Tyler Moore (.269-31-111 in Class-A) won’t be ready until 2013 at the earliest.

2B—Stephen Lombardozzi will overtake Daniel Espinosa because he makes contact.

SS—Ian Desmond will have cut down the throwing errors by 2012 and offensively could hit as much as .275-15-75 with stolen bases.

3B—Ryan Zimmmerman should be around for a long time.

LF—Michael Morse is capable of hitting .280-25-85 if given the chance to play every day. 2011 should be the season to give him that chance, to see if he’s an everyday player.

CF—Jayson Werth has played center field before and hopefully he can again, especially if Bryan Harper makes the club in 2012.

RF—Bryan Harper won’t be a slugger in 2012, but he will lay the foundations for the future. Playing solid defense and hitting .270-15-70 will be plenty for the 19-year-old.

It’s becoming obvious that Rizzo won’t be able to change the team overnight like had been hoped; there won’t be any Zach Greinke’s or James Loney’s to be had this off season. And that’s okay. If 2012 is the year of contention, then the Nationals have to find out now if Roger Bernadina, Mike Morse and Nyjer Morgan are starters or utility players.

Once all that gets sorted out, Rizzo can make all the big-time splashy moves he needs to get the Nationals ready for the 2012 season. And I think most of us can live with one more so-so season if it is obvious that respectability is right around the corner.

And I have to believe that it is.

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The Baltimore Orioles need a first baseman.

As former Orioles first baseman Kevin Millar might say: “It’s time for the O’s to cowboy up and get it done.”

That’s the feeling every Oriole fan is experiencing at this moment in time in regards to the first base situation, which has been dragging on for most of the offseason.

At first, it was losing out on their number one target, catcher/first baseman/DH Victor Martinez by two million dollars to the Detroit Tigers. Then came Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko signing with the Chicago White Sox.

Now, the Orioles are left with the last two “top” free agent first baseman left on the market in Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche, and the urgency to sign one of them increases each passing day.

LaRoche was the Orioles’ main target between the two at the annual Winter Meetings in early December. It makes sense: He is fairly young (31) with a very consistent bat and a great glove. The only real drawbacks to him are the fact that he is a left-handed hitter, something the Orioles are already loaded with and that he wants a three-year deal, a length of time that the Orioles’ front office isn’t comfortable with.

It is safe to assume the Orioles had offered a LaRoche a lucrative deal weeks ago, but whether it was a two or three-year deal has yet to be released. Either way, LaRoche has sat on the deal for way too long, hoping either he got a better offer money or years-wise, or that a contender offers him a job.

LaRoche is a good player, but isn’t good enough for a team to justify bidding against themselves in order to win his services. This is why I now say that the Orioles need to grab Derrek Lee and grab him now, so that this whole ordeal is over and done with and they can focus on their pitching, the rotation and bullpen.

Lee is older (35), and is coming off an injured and down year. But Lee is a right-handed run producer (he drove in 80 runs last season in his down year, and averages 90 during a 162-game season), a great fielder and a clubhouse leader.

Coming off a year in which his thumb was injured, he can be expected to bounce back, much like third baseman Adrian Beltre did last year when he signed a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox,or former O Aubrey Huff did in San Francisco with the World Series champion Giants.

And like Beltre and Huff, Lee would be willing to sign a one-year deal in order to re-establish himself as a feared hitter, something the Orioles sorely lack and haven’t had since the 2005 season when they had an Opening Day lineup featuring Miguel Tejada, Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro.

After having thumb surgery in the beginning of the offseason, Lee should be ready to go with the bat and glove on Opening Day 2011. It would be a real surprise to everyone in the MLB and whoever follows it if Lee doesn’t have a good year next season, if not a great one.

Lee would be very motivated to produce a good year in order to hit the free agent market in 2011 and get a three-year deal with an annual salary of $10 million or up.

The fact that he has played his entire career in the National League shouldn’t be used against him, as hitters of his experience and ability often aren’t defined by the league they play in. They can hit wherever and will step it up when the situation presents the need, such as the mentioned re-establishment of a one-year deal.

It was well known that at the beginning of the offseason, Lee wanted to sign with a contender and didn’t have any interest in Baltimore, despite his ties with President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail back in his Chicago Cubs days.

But it has been reported within the past few days that Lee has opened up a bit more to playing with a non-contender and playing for the Orioles. In hearing that news, MacPhail should have picked up the phone, called Lee’s agent and offered him a one-year deal at $10 or $11 million.

MacPhail needs to put an end to the question mark at first base for the Baltimore Orioles going into the 2011 season. This team can’t afford to waste any more time waiting on LaRoche to make up his mind.

The front office needs to put the pedal to the metal and get someone signed so that they can focus on the other teams needs. If LaRoche doesn’t want to come to Baltimore, then Lee would be crazy to pass up the opportunity at a chance to play with the great competition of the AL East and to prove himself on a $10 million salary.

Lee would be a good addition with the glove and in the clubhouse, leading a young team and teaching them how to win, as well as providing pop from the right side of the plate with an assumed bounce-back year.

Make the call, Andy. Make the offer. Do whatever it takes.

It’s time to “cowboy up” and get the team a real first baseman.

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It has been an eventful 2010 off-season for Major League Baseball. Some of the league’s biggest names have changed uniforms, most notably Cliff Lee (back to the Phillies), Carl Crawford (Red Sox), Adrian Gonzalez (Red Sox) and Jayson Werth (Nationals). 

Of the remaining free agents, Adrian Beltre and Derek Lee seem to be the best position players still without a contract. Rumors are swirling all over the board as to the possible value of Beltre’s contract, and where Derek Lee will choose to play ball for the 2011 season. 

Besides Beltre and Lee, trade talks are ever-present, and prospective suitors also have other moves on the brain. Here are the most recent rumors, with speculation as to what they actually mean for Beltre, Lee, other free agents, and the teams involved.

Begin Slideshow

First, here’s hoping that everyone had a joyous and Merry Christmas. I was raised an atheist during a time when teachers led a prayer and blessing over our lunch in the Fairfax County school system and today am a believer in a world where it is almost illegal to mention religion in school.

You’d think there would be some happy medium out there. Regardless, I hope all sides enjoyed their day yesterday.

Phil Wood of masn.com reported this morning that negotiations are “pretty close” between the Nationals and first baseman Derrek Lee on a one-year contract. The Orioles, however, are still in pursuit.

Wood also said that the Orioles are continuing their negotiations with Adam LaRoche, but didn’t say whether Washington also remained interested in the former Diamondback. My guess is the omission means that—at this point, at least—the Nationals are unwilling to give LaRoche anything more than a two-year contract.

Were LaRoche to sign with Washington, I could guarantee you that by the end of the season, he would have numbers very close to .260-25-90 with minimal deviation. He’s that consistent.

Lee, however, is another story. After averaging .300-.384-.534 with 33 home runs and 102 RBI over the last six seasons, he slumped to .260-19-80, .347 OBP last season with the Cubs and the Braves.

Either his injured thumb—he suffered a torn ligament early in September and had restorative surgery last month—or his advancing age turned his once potent bat soft. If it was the thumb, he is expected to be 100% this spring and the Nationals will have added another middle-of-the-order bat.

But if he’s just getting old—he will be 35 next season—then another .265-20-80 season is about all that can be expected.

It’s hard to say if a healthy Lee will return to his old self. My guess is—and it is just a guess—that he will surpass LaRoche offensively in 2011, while playing better defense. In the long term, however, LaRoche has more to offer a prospective team.

At least that is what general manager Mike Rizzo is hoping if he is able to sign him.

Wood also reported that the Nationals tried to trade for the Dodgers’ first baseman James Loney, but were thwarted when Los Angeles signed catcher Dioner Navarro. Apparently, a Nationals’ catcher was to be part of the package heading westward.

Loney, still just 26, is a four-year starter and has averaged .288-14-92 for the Dodgers. However, his numbers slipped last season and the Nationals don’t have enough offense at the other positions to be able to support Loney in the lineup. Sure, he is an RBI guy but he just doesn’t hit enough home runs to be an end-the-game-with-one-swing kind of player.

It looks like it’s going to be Derrek Lee, but it was just a week or two ago that reports had Adam LaRoche signing a multi-year deal with Orioles.

We’ll just have to wait a little longer, I guess.

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The 2011 season can break one of two ways for the Washington Nationals. They can either take that final step towards a .500 season and use it as a conduit to future playoff contention or they can simply suck for a sixth consecutive year.

And which possibility becomes reality is dependent on who trots out to first base next Opening Day.

The Nationals have shored up enough of their offense—and will in the next month bring in enough starting pitching—that a defensive minded, 25 homer, 85 RBI type of first baseman should make the team at least good enough to take a run at respectability. Anything less and fans will still be talking in terms of “next season.”

Right now, three teams and two players are playing musical chairs with Russian roulette-type implications. The San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals are all without a first baseman and are chasing two pretty good ones: Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee.

So, what’s taking so long?

Most teams have their rosters and payrolls pretty much set by the time they return from Christmas vacation. That means that players only have a few days to finalize their contracts and find homes in their new cities.

Now, the reality is that while the Padres want a new first baseman, they probably can’t afford one. If money weren’t a problem they would never have shipped Adrian Gonzalez off to Boston. The reality then is that two teams need a first baseman and two good ones remain in the MLB cupboard (with a few more available in the scratch-n-dent bin).

The 34-year-old Lee is the short-term solution for both clubs. After averaging .292-32-85 since 2000, a little bit of age and an injured thumb slowed him down last year. He batted .260-19-80 playing for the Braves and the Chicago Cubs. He is a former Gold Glove winner.

Lee is a short-term solution because he is content with a one-year contract for “Carlos Pena money,” somewhere in the $8-10 million range. His hope is that he will be able to rebrand himself following a solid 2011 season and then sign a two or three-year deal next fall.

Over the past week or two, both Mid-Atlantic teams showed the most interest in the 30-year-old LaRoche. He has averaged .271-25-87 in his six full major league seasons and brings a glove that is almost Gold Glove quality. It makes a great deal of sense, then, to reward LaRoche with a two-year deal, perhaps with the team owning a third-year option.

Again, it’s been a couple of weeks since negotiations began between the two first basemen and the two teams. From all reports, the Orioles have in fact offered LaRoche a multi-year deal, probably for two years. The sticking point is that third year.

It has been reported that the Orioles were unwilling to include that extra year and they are now in negotiations with Derrek Lee. But those are the same reports coming out of the Nationals camp, that after initial discussions with LaRoche, the team has focused on Lee as their first baseman in 2011.

So what gives?

It would seem that LaRoche is seeking some stability after playing for four teams in five years. He wants to be able to unpack his bags and actually choose the color for his bedroom walls for once. And I don’t begrudge him that desire.

And really, I don’t see why the Nationals would have a problem with a three-year contract. He is the model of consistency. Beginning in 2006, LaRoche has batted .285, .272, .270, .277 and .261 last season.

And over the past four seasons, he has hit 21, 25, 25 and 25 home runs and drove in 90, 88, 85, 83 and 100 runs. It’s great. Just wind him up in March and watch him go.

Lee, on the other hand, had a difficult year in 2009, which could have been the result of either a damaged thumb or advancing age. If it was his thumb, then Lee should be able to hit .280-30-95; maybe better. If it’s the age, then .265-20-75 seems about right.

The problem, of course, is that no one will know until long after the contract has been signed.

The Nationals have two first basemen currently in their minor league system who could one day become major league players. Chris Marrero is 21 and just finished his first full season against Double-A pitchers, batting .294/.350/.450 with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. Over his five-year minor league career, he’s averaged .281-19-88 with a .347 on-base percentage over a full season.

But he went to the Adam Dunn school of defense and general manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear that defense and athleticism are priority talents for future National players. Thus, he has no real future in Washington. He’ll likely end up part of a trade package for a veteran player.

Tyler Moore is two years older than Marrero and played in 2010 with Potomac, a level below Marrero’s Harrisburg Senators. However, Moore was drafted out of college, so his age really isn’t an issue. Moore batted .269-31-111 for the P-Nats while garnering a solid .552 slugging mark. Moore, however, is not a great defender.

So it’s not as though a multi-year contract to LaRoche (or Lee) will block some can’t-miss prospect in the minors. Marrero is a near-certain trade chip and Moore is at least two years away from the major leagues.

My guess is that we’ll wake one morning very soon and read that the Nationals signed one of these first baseman. I wouldn’t be upset if it’s Lee but hope that it ends up being LaRoche for two years with a third-year option at $8 million per season.

If the Nationals get one of those two guys—and add that elusive starting pitcher—the winter additions plus the overall maturation of the team will make a .500 run a real possibility. If, however, the team is forced to sift through the scrap heap to find their new first baseman, a 72 to 76-win season is about all we can hope for.

So Adam, hurry up, will you? Let’s get this taken care. The Nationals need you.

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That man is smiling because Adrian Beltre is currently the “hottest” item left on the Major League Baseball winter stove now that Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez and Adam Dunn have found greener pastures.

Or more luxurious estates with more elegantly manicured lawns amidst a community with higher gates.

You say potato, I say potato…

The point is that the prize of the offseason is now a 31-year-old third baseman who’s proven to be underwhelming unless surrounded by an elite supporting cast, working in a hitter’s yard and/or playing for a new contract.

Oh, and he’s represented by Scott Boras.

What you just heard was the sound of 30 major-league teams shuffling through the deck for more efficient options or a more pleasant negotiating partner (which shouldn’t be hard unless this human Porta-John is the only name in their contacts).

And the first ones to pass were likely out near the Left Coast.

Based on the free-agent doings in the National League West, you can bet the Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies never even saw Beltre’s tires. Forget about kicking them.

The former Dodger seems priced out of each club’s budget and superfluous based on existing options at the hot corner.

So no, Adrian Beltre almost certainly won’t be in the division next year.

But there are other players who could help and Spring Training is still months away so the dealing’s not done. With that in mind, here are 15 players (really 12) who might be competing in the NL West come 2011:

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It has been a busy off-season thus far that has seen almost all of the coveted free agents sign with different teams.

We have seen Jayson Werth sign a massive contract with the Nationals, Carl Crawford signed a bigger contract with the Red Sox, and the Sox also acquired Adrian Gonzalez.

There are numerous free agents left on the market and only half of them are really good players.  Meaning that the asking price for certain players like Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche will go up because they are the best left at their position.

So, now is the perfect time to analyze the risks, rewards, and my predictions for all the free agents that are left like Beltre and Lee.

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