Tag: Detroit Tigers

Starting Max Scherzer in Game 1 Is Wrong Move for the Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have set their playoff rotation, and according to Mike Axisa of CBS Sports, Max Scherzer is going to get the ball in Game 1.

After having gone 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 240 strikeouts, Scherzer showed he’s been the best pitcher on the Tigers in 2013 and one of the best pitchers in the American League.

The Tigers will host the Oakland Athletics, a team that has less than half the payroll the Tigers do. But it’s also a team that took four of seven games from the Tigers.

Many people in the media think giving the ball to Scherzer is the best thing for the Tigers:

But looking into the numbers, having Scherzer pitch in Game 1 is a bad decision on the part of manager Jim Leyland.

 

Against the A’s This Year

Here’s how each of Detroit’s top pitchers stack up against the A’s this year:

Despite Scherzer having a better season overall, Justin Verlander has clearly been the better pitcher against the A’s this year. Moreover, he has experience pitching in Game 1 of a playoff series, including two last year.

Anibal Sanchez has also had more success than Scherzer against the A’s this year.

Some will point to the fact that Verlander lost Game 1 of the World Series last year against the Giants, a game in which he gave up five runs in four innings. However, if you look to his Game 1 start in the ALDS against the A’s, he went seven innings, gave up one run and struck out 11.

In fact, he also picked up a win in Game 5 of that same series, pitching a complete-game shutout with 11 strikeouts.

Last year, Verlander shined in the postseason, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 29 strikeouts. He also only allowed opponents to hit .160 against him, the best of any starter with at least two postseason starts.

 

Since Aug. 1

To further the point, let’s look at how each starter has done since the beginning of August:

Going by these numbers, Sanchez and Scherzer are comparable. Scherzer has a smaller WHIP and BAA, while Sanchez’s ERA is lower. In reality, it’s a coin flip over who has been better since Aug. 1.

However, over the course of the year, Sanchez never saw his ERA go above 2.93. He gave up runs here and there, but only four or more four times this year. Compare that to Scherzer, who gave up four or more runs seven times.

The last start of the regular season is also a big one, as it’s sort of the dress rehearsal for the postseason. In Scherzer’s start, he went seven innings and gave up no runs, but walked six against the Twins on Sept. 25. 

Compare that to Verlander, who gave up no runs and one walk on Sept. 29 against the Marlins. Sanchez was also good, giving up two hits and no walks in five innings against the Marlins the day before Verlander.

To put it into perspective, in the last two months Scherzer has walked at least three batters in five of the seven times he’s gotten at least six strikeouts. On the other hand, the other four times where he struck out less than six, he walked one or none.

 

Who Should Start

While Verlander does have the Game 1 experience, and Scherzer has been the Tigers’ best pitcher this year, there’s no question that Sanchez is the guy who should be starting Game 1.

He’s kept his ERA low all year and had success against Oakland this year.

Verlander wouldn’t get the nod mainly because he has struggled at times this year, although not against the A’s.

When it comes down to it, in Game 1, I want a pitcher that I know won’t give up more than two runs. The offense is powerful with guys like Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, but a pitcher who can shut down the A’s will allow Detroit hitters to relax at the plate.

That pitcher is Anibal Sanchez.

 

Note: All stats taken from Baseball-Reference.com

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Why Prince Fielder’s Performance Nosedives in the Postseason

By any reasonable set of standards, Prince Fielder is a fantastic hitter. The Detroit Tigers first baseman owns a .286/.389/.527 career batting line and is one of only 17 players in MLB history with at least 285 home runs through his age-29 season.

…But he’s also one of those guys.

You know, one of those guys who just can’t cut it in October. Fielder has played in six series and 28 games in the postseason, and in those he owns a mere .183/.277/.365 batting line. That’s a .643 OPS that’s close to 300 points below Fielder’s .916 regular-season OPS.

The inevitable question in these situations can be asked with only one word: Why? Or, if you prefer, whyyyyyyyyyy?

Well, this being baseball, there are naturally plenty of answers for Fielder’s postseason struggles. Let’s discuss them, shall we?

 

More Strikeouts + Bad Luck = A Bad Time

When you think of sluggers, you think of guys who cause baseballs all sorts of pain on contact, but for whom the actual act of making contact is tricky. For examples, see “Dunn, Adam” or “Davis, Chris.”

But Fielder? He’s different.

Fielder has been better than the average player at avoiding strikeouts during his career. Per FanGraphs, his career strikeout rate is only 17.5 percent, and he’s managed to live below that mark over the last three years while strikeout rates have risen elsewhere in Major League Baseball. 

However, things change for Fielder in the postseason. Behold:

Every year Fielder has played in October, he’s seen his strikeout rate take a sudden hike. And overall, his postseason strikeout rate is notably higher than his regular-season strikeout rate.

The simplest explanation for this is that the pitching is better in the postseason. Good teams tend to have good pitchers, after all, so October doesn’t present Fielder as many opportunities to light up the stat sheet against lesser adversaries. 

We’ll get into the more complicated explanations soon enough. For now, let’s just agree that strikeouts are bad, m’kay? They bar players from putting the ball in play, thus hurting their chances of doing something good.

This leads us to another explanation for Fielder’s October struggles. For all his strikeouts, he certainly has put the ball in play a fair amount in the postseason. And when he has, his luck has downright sucked.

Courtesy of FanGraphs, here’s some key data about Fielder’s postseason batted balls and BABIP in the postseason as compared to the regular season:

Fielder’s line-drive, ground-ball and fly-ball rates in the postseason aren’t mirror images of his regular-season numbers, but they’re really close. And while more infield pop-ups and fewer home runs per fly ball isn’t the best trend, it’s not one that should come paired with such a massive decrease in BABIP.

Want to see what this sort of bad luck looks like? Very well then.

This happened to Fielder in the 2011 NLCS:

This happened to him in last year’s ALDS:

And this happened in last year’s World Series:

If we add four hits to Fielder’s postseason resume, he’s a .221 career hitter in the playoffs. That’s still not good, but it’s not as awful as .183 either.

That the baseball gods haven’t done Fielder any favors in his October career is a point that should sound good to the Tigers. If Fielder has had bad luck his previous three trips to the postseason, he’s surely due for some good luck.

However, more good luck won’t turn Fielder into a postseason hero all by itself. He still has that strikeout issue to worry about, and there are other things a bit more tangible than luck working against him.

Such as…

 

Less Patience + Iffy Plate Discipline = A Badder Time

Striking out less often than the typical power hitter isn’t the only thing Fielder does well. He also has the kind of walk habit you want a slugger to have.

But like with the whole strikeout thing, Fielder’s walk habit takes a turn for the worse in October. Here are some more numbers:

Granted, Fielder’s walk habit didn’t take too bad of a dive in the postseason until last year, when he cut his walk percentage in half and then some. That said, there has been a drop in each of the three years he’s played October baseball, and an overall drop to boot.

Coming up with solid explanations for this habit isn’t easy due to how tricky it is to find data for the postseason. For example, FanGraphs doesn’t track plate discipline data for the playoffs, which is usually the first place one turns to in times like these.

However, there are some things that can be pieced together.

A decline in Fielder’s patience come October appears to be a problem. Per Baseball-Reference.com, Fielder saw an average of 3.83 pitches per plate appearance between 2008 and 2012. Using postseason data from Brooks Baseball, Fielder has seen 429 pitches in his playoff career, which has spanned 119 plate appearances. That comes out to 3.61 pitches per plate appearance, a notable drop.

As for Fielder’s plate discipline, his regular season and postseason swing profiles at Brooks Baseball provide some insight. I unfortunately can’t re-post the images here, but if you go and look you’ll see that Fielder’s habit of chasing pitches up is clearly more pronounced in October, as are his habits of chasing pitches both low and away and outside.

That Fielder is seemingly more willing to expand the zone in the postseason is indeed something that wouldn’t help his chances of getting on base via walks.

And yes, this is something that helps explain his strikeout habit, as there are some big numbers and interesting colors on pitches down and up and outside if one goes and looks at whiff/swing plots for Fielder in the regular season and in the postseason.

Since there’s no plate discipline over at FanGraphs to put more precise numbers on things, I’ll warn that there’s a limit to how much we can read into all this. But it certainly doesn’t look good. Patience and discipline are two of Fielder’s strengths, yet these strengths seem to wane in October.

But wait, there’s more.

 

In All Three Postseasons, An Abundance of Lefty Sliders

Like, well, pretty much all left-handed hitters, Fielder doesn’t like hitting left-handed pitching. He’s better than most lefties with a career .803 OPS against southpaws, but that’s not quite as impressive as his .971 OPS against righty pitchers.

And if there’s one thing about facing lefty pitchers that Fielder loathes the most, it might be the sliders.

According to Brooks Baseball, Fielder has seen 1,150 sliders from left-handed pitchers in regular-season games from 2008 to 2013. Against those, he’s batted only .253 with 107 strikeouts. He doesn’t have any more than 61 strikeouts against any other lefty pitch.

Knowing this, the numbers in this table shouldn’t surprise you:

*To clarify, this means the percentage of all pitches seen from lefties that were sliders.

In regular-season games over the last six years, Fielder has seen his share of sliders from left-handed pitchers. But in the two postseasons he played in 2008 and 2011, the number of lefty sliders went way up, and he was unable to both lay off them or hit them. And in last year’s postseason, it was even worse.

Against the lefty sliders he saw in the 2008 and 2011 playoffs, Fielder had one hit to three strikeouts. In 2012, it was one hit to two strikeouts. That makes lefty sliders responsible for 20 percent of his career postseason punchouts and only about 11 percent of his postseason hits.

And it makes sense why Fielder would come up against more of them in the postseason, right? With every pitch and every out meaning the world at any given moment, lefty pitchers facing Fielder would be more willing to go to their best offerings in order to get him out. And since it’s worked, shoot, why stop?

Granted, this is more of a complementary explanation for Fielder’s October issues. Some regression in his approach at the plate and bad luck account for the bulk of his postseason struggles. The lefty sliders just haven’t helped.

But now you might be wondering why I sectioned off the 2012 postseason rather than include it with the 2008 and 2011 postseasons. Allow me to shed some light on that with the next bolded section.

 

In 2012, Too Many Southpaws on the Mound

As poor as Fielder’s overall postseason numbers are, he was actually getting by OK before 2012. He only hit .192 in his first 15 playoff games, but he did so with an .817 OPS. 

Last year was when things really went south. In addition to hitting only .173 in 13 games, Fielder only managed a .463 OPS. Even if his bad luck had become good luck, he still would have had a pretty rough go of things.

But understand this: It wasn’t easy for Fielder. Seemingly every time he went to the plate, there was a left-hander on the mound.

This is not an exaggeration. Here’s a look at the percentage of pitches from lefty pitchers that Fielder saw in the 2012 playoffs compared to 2008-2013 regular-season games and 2008/2011 postseason games:

In the 2008 and 2011 playoffs, things were basically normal for Fielder. But last year? Yeah, not normal at all.

It’s not that Fielder was constantly facing LOOGYs. That big number is more a matter of the Oakland A’s, New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants each throwing two lefty starters at the Tigers. The full list: Tommy Milone, Brett Anderson, CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Barry Zito and Madison Bumgarner.

As for the lefty relievers Fielder had to face, that list includes: Jerry Blevins, Clay Rapada, Boone Logan, Jose Mijares and Jeremy Affeldt.

Now, I should note that Fielder deserves credit for the work he did against the southpaws he saw. Eight of his nine postseason hits last year came against lefties and only five of his 11 strikeouts.

The catch, however, is that all eight of those hits were singles. That fits with Fielder’s career narrative, as his career Isolated Power against lefties is about 80 points lower than his career Isolated Power against righties (see FanGraphs). Throwing lefties at him is the best way to neutralize his power. 

And while it’s admittedly hard (if not impossible) to back up the following suggestion with data, I wonder if having to face lefties so much more often than usual got Fielder all out of whack. It could be that his timing got thrown off. Or maybe it was a vision thing. Maybe it was both.

Whatever the case, I presume that having to go through a gauntlet of southpaws in October is something Fielder would prefer not to do again.

 

Final Thoughts

To repeat what was said way back when, Prince Fielder is one of those guys. In some circles, those guys tend to be known simply as “bums.” Because how else can you refer to guys who can’t get it done in October, darn it?

Instead, here’s how I look at Fielder: He’s proof positive that the postseason is a different animal.

The pressure is a lot higher in the postseason. That Fielder’s approach has been less measured in October suggests that he’s felt that pressure.

But also, the pitching is different in the postseason. That Fielder has had to deal with so many of those dastardly left-handed sliders is Exhibit A for him.

And then there’s luck. The luck of the draw didn’t do Fielder any favors by throwing so many lefties at him last year, and then there’s all the bad luck he’s had on batted balls.

The bright side, such as it is, is that all the postseason presents is a series of small sample sizes. What is true in a small sample size can indeed be misleading, and the truth can change as the overall sample size gets larger.

In other words: don’t rule out Fielder having a big October this year just because of what he’s done in the past.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. 

 

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Miguel Cabrera Injury: Updates on Tigers Star’s Groin, Likely Return Date

Detroit Tigers star Miguel Cabrera left Saturday’s game against the Chicago White Sox due to a groin injury. Cabrera has been plagued by abdominal and groin trouble all season, so this is a troubling development for the Tigers as they head towards the postseason. 

The Tigers’ official Twitter account broke the news:

 

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Detroit Tigers Jose Iglesias: Starting His Own Legacy Wearing No. 1

It’s a case of Wally Pipp, redux—in an indirect sort of way.

Jhonny Peralta got a headache and Jose Iglesias took his job.

Kind of.

For the next five to 10 years—or however long the Tigers are able to shanghai Iglesias to the team—when Tigers fans see feats of derring-do at shortstop, they can thank Peralta’s headache.

Jhonny’s headache, of course, wasn’t a literal one, but it was no less impactful. The headache was a 50-game suspension for Peralta’s connection to the Biogenesis lab, which created a hole at shortstop that this kid Iglesias is filling like cement.

Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski, who must have been wielding a gun and wearing a mask, pried Iglesias from the Boston Red Sox in a three-team trade that sent outfield prospect Avisail Garcia to the Chicago White Sox.

It was only one of the slyest moves in team history. It may prove to be the steal of the millennium.

Peralta is a fine baseball player and a capable shortstop. He was swinging a mighty stick before the suspension, harkening everyone back to his All-Star season of 2011.

But Peralta is the 2013 Pipp, whose place in the Yankees lineup at first base was taken by one Louis Gehrig in 1923 as Pipp infamously nursed a headache. Pipp was a pretty good player too, but he was no Gehrig, as it turned out.

Iglesias is already making people think of Peralta as a distant memory, and Jhonny has only been gone for a little more than a month.

Iglesias plays shortstop as if he tumbled out of the womb wearing a mitt. It wouldn’t surprise me if his first words were “seis-cuatro-tres.”

Brooks Robinson was dropped on Earth by God to play third base. Iglesias is a shortstop the way Brooks was a third baseman. In just seven weeks as a Tiger, Iglesias has made plays that you only see on video games—or in dreams.

There isn’t a baseball that Iglesias can’t get to. He has the range of a nuclear bomb and an arm like an ICBM missile.

We have never seen shortstop play in Detroit like we’re seeing it now with Iglesias. With all due respect to Alan Trammell and “Steady” Eddie Brinkman, Iglesias combines competence with flair. He’s an acrobat playing baseball and part gymnast too.

What’s Spanish for vacuum cleaner?

They gave Iglesias jersey No. 1 as he arrived from Boston, and there was an uproar, because that number was done proud by Lou Whitaker, who many Tigers fans think should be in the Hall of Fame.

I was among those who thought giving Iglesias No. 1 was poor form, but I didn‘t lose sleep over it. I’m losing even less, after seeing this youngster play.

Frankly, they should give Iglesias another number, if only because he needs to start his own legacy with his own numeral. Twenty years from now, we’ll be aghast if another Tiger wears Iglesias’ number.

You say he’s a rookie, that he’s only 23 and he’s only been a Tiger since late July, so back off on the accolades?

How many songs did they need to hear Sinatra sing before they knew Blue Eyes was a crooner?

I don’t think we need any more evidence to confirm that Jose Iglesias is a shortstop with a gene that most others simply don’t have.

Iglesias was signed by the Red Sox as a 19-year-old free agent in 2009. He wasn’t drafted, which is an indictment on every scout in the world. Where was he hiding? In plain sight?

He’s generously listed as 5’11” and 175 pounds, but whoever did the listing must have been looking at a fun house mirror image. Iglesias is as 5’11” as Verne Troyer and as 175 pounds as a runway model. But no matter, list him however you want. It won’t change the fact that Iglesias is as shortstop as Ozzie Smith, and that’s the only thing Tigers fans care about.

We first saw Iglesias in Detroit briefly when the Red Sox visited in June. But on a team filled with guys named Pedroia, Ortiz, Saltalamacchia and Ellsbury, Iglesias got lost in the shuffle on the visitors.

Then the trade was made in late July, and we were told that we’d be thrilled to watch Iglesias play shortstop. He was hitting about .330 at the time of the deal, but hitting wasn’t his thing, supposedly. It was the glove that separated Iglesias from the rest of the pack.

Well, Iglesias is still hitting over .300, but if he keeps flashing leather like this, he could hit .003 for all I care.

Infield defense wasn’t exactly a strength for the Tigers at the beginning of last year, with Peralta at shortstop, Ryan Raburn at second base, and Miggy Cabrera giving it another try at third base and Prince Fielder at first base. They were the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse, pretty much.

Cabrera proved to be better than most thought and Fielder is serviceable, but it’s in the middle of the infield where the Tigers are vastly improved. Iglesias at shortstop and Omar Infante—who rejoined the Tigers midway through last season—at second base, is as good as it gets defensively. And bonus—both are hitting over .300.

Iglesias made a play in Chicago several weeks ago that had to be seen to be believed. Actually, it was seen and still not believed.

Catcher Josh Phegley hit a slow roller to the left of the pitcher’s mound and Iglesias charged. The kid snared the ball with his bare hand, and while diving to his right thanks to his momentum, Iglesias flipped a throw to first base as he landed shoulder first in the grass. Somehow, Iglesias got enough on the flip to nip Phegley.

I am seeing it now in my head, and I’m still not certain whether I am making it up as I type. Someone, please verify that this actually happened.

Jose Iglesias will be the Tigers shortstop for the rest of the decade and maybe beyond. Because of his youth, the team has Iglesias under its control for at least five years before words like arbitration and free agency start to be bandied about.

By that time, it will be unthinkable to let Iglesias go anywhere.

And it would be unthinkable to give anyone else jersey No. 1. If Whitaker wearing it didn‘t retire the number, then Iglesias surely will be finishing the job.

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Miguel Cabrera Triple Crown Watch, by the Numbers

Sometimes the baseball gods just aren’t on your side. That certainly appears to be the case for Miguel Cabrera as he chases a second consecutive Triple Crown. 

The Detroit Tigers star has been hobbled, to say the least, by an ailing abdominal issue and some leg problems that have really sapped everything out of his offensive game. That really is too bad, because he was on pace to do something really special one year after winning the American League Most Valuable Player award. 

On the bright side, because his numbers and narrative are so strong, Cabrera will claim his second straight AL MVP trophy in November. But it is going to take a heroic, Babe Ruth-type effort for him to win another Triple Crown. 

With just two weeks to go, here is our fourth look at how things are shaking out for Cabrera in all three Triple Crown categories and how we expect him to finish. 

 

Not Your Average Hitter

In the first piece I wrote breaking down Cabrera’s Triple Crown chances, I basically said there was no way he was going to finish second in batting average. He had a 30-point lead over Mike Trout and was on cruise control. 

But as I learned, just because something looks like a foregone conclusion in baseball doesn’t mean it will happen. 

Cabrera has seen his average drop all the way down to .348 thanks in large part to a 3-for-22 start in September. It’s funny that we can talk about him in a slump and still hitting .348.

But even more surprising than Cabrera’s drop in average has been Trout’s hard-charging ways. The Los Angeles Angels star has been a one-man wrecking crew for that team all season, kicking things into another gear with a .360/.511/.564 slash line in the second half.  Those numbers have pushed his average up to .334 with 15 games left to play for both superstars.

However, playing devil’s advocate, let’s say that Cabrera plays 10 more games and maintains his average of 4.42 plate appearances per game. That gives him a total of about 44 more plate appearances before the end of the year. 

It is hard to predict what kind of average Cabrera could conceivably post given his physical limitations right now, but for the sake of argument, let’s put him somewhere in the .250 range for a total of 11 more hits. 

We will also keep his walk rate (13.9 percent) this season the same. That would give him six more walks, leaving 38 at-bats to play with. If we are going to keep him in the .250 range, Cabrera would get somewhere around nine more hits. 

Based on our calculations added to his current season total, Cabrera would finish the year with a .341 average (185-for-543). 

Since Trout is in about as healthy a player as he can be this deep into the season, we will say that he plays in all 15 games the Angels have left. Using his current average of 4.56 plate appearances per game, that will give him 73 more times in the batter’s box. 

Trout’s walk rate this season is 14.9 percent, meaning he will get a free pass 11 more times in 2013 with 62 at-bats to call his own. Since he is still healthy and at the top of his game, we can feel comfortable using his second-half batting average to calculate the number of hits he has left. 

Based on the .360 mark he’s posted since the All-Star Game, Trout will record 22 more hits. That puts his season average at .339 (203-for-595). 

Using this formula, which is far from iron-clad, Cabrera would still squeak by in the race for the batting average title. 

I am not quite ready to go far enough to say Trout will catch Cabrera. I can certainly envision a scenario where it happens because Trout is the best player in baseball and Cabrera isn’t in peak form. 

But 14 points is a lot of ground to make up with just 15 games to play. Even in the midst of his injury problems, Cabrera has only dropped 11 points in average since August 18. 

 

The Quintessential Run Producer

Another race that has gotten much tighter than anyone would have expected at the start of September is between Cabrera and Chris Davis for the RBI title. 

Cabrera’s lead has dwindled down to four, 133 to 129, over the last week. He came into the month with a 130 to 122 advantage, but even that felt bigger because Cabrera was playing every day in a lineup that features Austin Jackson (.348 OBP) and Torii Hunter (.331 OBP) hitting in front of him. 

Hitting in the middle of a really good lineup makes it that much easier to drive in runs, and Cabrera took full advantage of his opportunities. 

But thanks to sparse playing time, especially at the beginning of September, Davis has been able to play catch-up. He’s not exactly lighting the world on fire, with seven RBIs all month, but all of them have come in the last six games. 

Davis and Cabrera have 15 games remaining. Cabrera still has the advantage in this category down the stretch, but not because of anything he is doing. 

It’s been an uphill battle for Davis in the second half of the season. He’s still hitting well with a .261/.355/.537 line since the break, but that pales in comparison to the .315/.392/.717 mark he put up before the All-Star Game. 

Another problem that Davis faces is his innate ability to strike out. Even when he was hitting well in the first half, the swing-and-miss elements of his game were still prevalent with 110 in 343 at-bats. 

That issue has only gotten worse in the second half, as Davis has racked up 69 strikeouts in 188 at-bats. Combine that with the fact that the players hitting in front of him (Nate McLouth, Manny Machado and, at times, Brian Roberts) have posted a .311 OBP since the All-Star break. 

As long as Cabrera plays enough, like the 10 games we penciled him in for, that should be enough to get his RBI total up to 140 given the talent around him in Detroit’s lineup. 

If that happens, Davis would need at least 13 to overtake the lead. The slugger hasn’t had a stretch of 13 RBI in 16 games since the middle of August. No, it’s not that long ago in normal times, but in baseball terms, one month is an eternity. 

The walls are closing in around Cabrera, but the lead is still big enough and the lineup around him is better that I assume he will come out ahead in this race. 

 

Power Outage

Cabrera started to close the gap on Davis in home runs when September started, getting within four, 47 to 43. Yet as soon as I mentioned that in last week’s breakdown, Davis hit a home run in a series against the White Sox to stretch his lead back to six. 

This is an instance where I feel much more comfortable saying that the race is over. Cabrera needs at least six home runs in 16 games if Davis doesn’t homer again this year. Miggy has hit 13 home runs in the entire second half. 

Using the formula we created for Cabrera in the batting average race against Trout, he will have 38 at-bats to get those six home runs. For non-mathematicians out there, that translates to one homer every 6.3 at-bats. 

Even factoring in small sample sizes and random anomalies, Cabrera isn’t going to hit that many home runs. 

It’s not impossible. In fact, Cabrera has had two stretches this season that were actually much better than that, but both of them came when he was in peak physical condition. 

Miggy actually had six home runs in a four-game stretch from May 19-23, including that three-homer game against Texas on May 19. He also hit six home runs in an eight-game period covering 31 at-bats from June 25-July 2. 

But you have to factor in a player’s health, especially at this stage of the game. The Tigers have no reason to push Cabrera more than he is capable of because they are going to play in October. 

As nice as the narrative of Cabrera winning another Triple Crown would be, this team is built to win a World Series. It needs him in the middle of their lineup and as close to 100 percent as possible to get there. 

It also hurts that Davis probably isn’t going to end the season at 49 home runs.

Here are some of the pitchers he’s scheduled to face with their season total in innings and homers allowed:

Playing in the Rogers Centre and Camden Yards, two very good offensive parks, and Fenway which is one of the smallest parks down the right- and left-field lines, it seems like a stretch to say that 49 will be Davis’ final total. 

We also have to factor in the remaining schedule that Cabrera has, including how the parks play for home runs and offense. 

Miguel Cabrera Stats vs. Remaining 2013 Opponents
Opponent Team ERA (Rank) No. of Games Park Effects HR Rank Career Stats vs. Opponent 2013 Stats vs. Opponent
Kansas City Royals 3.53 (6th) 3 (Home) 13th .328/.392/.548, 21 HR (107 G) .293/.425/.569, 4 HR (17 G)
Seattle Mariners 4.32 (28th) 4 (Home) 24th .316/.391/.506, 7 HR (46 G) .333/.333/.533, 1 HR (3 G)
Chicago White Sox 3.92 (16th) 3 (Home) 7th .286/.376/.511, 23 HR (105 G) .270/.357/.595, 4 HR (11 G)
Minnesota Twins 4.38 (29th) 3 (Road) 23rd .316/.397/.588, 27 HR (109 G) .254/.380/.407, 2 HR (16 G)
Miami Marlins 3.79 (11th) 3 (Road) 29th N/A N/A

There are not a lot of favorable parks in there for Cabrera. He has mastered the art of hitting at Comerica, so that isn’t a huge problem. But Seattle, Minnesota and Miami are three of baseball’s worst parks for hitters. 

Combine that with the deficit Cabrera faces in the home run chase, and his odds are as long as they have ever been. 

It’s an unfortunate situation for him, as he has spent so much time baffling us with his hitting prowess, but as long as we get to see him in October, it seems like a fair trade to say he will “only” finish first in two of the three mainstream offensive categories. 

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. If you want to talk baseball, feel free to hit me on Twitter with questions or comments. 


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Detroit Tigers: Sanchez Could Be the Key to an AL Central Three-Peat

In December 2012, the Detroit Tigers signed Anibal Sanchez to a five-year, $80 million contract, bolstering one of the best starting rotations in baseball.

And this season, Sanchez has gone out and defended his mega deal.

Sanchez’s deal was one of the more polarizing contract agreements in Tigers recent memory, igniting outrage from some fans, and elation for others.

The 29-year-old received the deal mostly because of his 2012 postseason success when he earned a 1.77 ERA, 18 strikeouts and 6 walks in 20.1 innings over three starts.

Sanchez helped lead the Tigers to the 2012 World Series, but prior to last year’s postseason, Sanchez’s numbers were mediocre at best.

His 9-13 record with a 3.86 ERA in 2012, combined with his 39-38 lifetime record prior to 2012, had some Tigers fans up in arms about such an expensive, long-term contract.

But in 2013, the right-hander has picked up from where he left off from last October, and has been brilliant for the Tigers.

On Wednesday night, Sanchez earned his career-high 14th win after throwing seven scoreless innings, giving up just five hits and earning 10 strikeouts.

Sanchez improved to 14-7 this season with a 2.50 ERA, which is the best among Tigers starters.

He has the second-most wins on the team, trailing only Max Scherzer and is the only starter trailing Scherzer in strikeouts per nine inning with 9.67. His 9.67 K’s per nine innings is third in the AL.

With the struggles of Justin Verlander, Sanchez has been the Tigers’ second best starter this season, and he’s arguably been the best against the American League Central

Against the AL Central, when it matters the most, Sanchez has been even more outstanding.

Sanchez is 7-3 against divisional opponents and has a sub-2 ERA against three of the four teams in the division.

He’s on pace to earn a career-best ERA and for a career-high in strikeouts. His best game this season came in April against the Atlanta Braves, when threw an eight-inning shutout, striking out 17 batters.

Sanchez’s 17 strikeouts broke the Tigers’ franchise record for strikeouts in a single game, passing Mickey Lolich, who struck out 16 batters twice in 1969.

With 16 games left and the Tigers six games up in the division, Sanchez will have three more regular season starts, where he can help the Tigers bury the Cleveland Indians and lead Detroit to an AL Central three-peat.

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Should the Detroit Tigers Activate Jhonny Peralta for the Playoffs?

In an interview with MLB Network Radio, Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski confirmed that he’s in the process of determining whether or not Jhonny Peralta will be welcomed back to the roster when his Biogenesis-related suspension expires (h/t James Schmehl, MLive.com).

It’s a sensitive situation and one without a definitively “correct” resolution, but we’ll dig a little deeper into the pros and cons.

Peralta served as Detroit’s everyday shortstop prior to accepting a 50-game ban. At the time, the Tigers sat comfortably atop the AL Central, and with a 81-59 record entering Friday night’s action, they’re extremely likely to participate in the playoffs.

As an accomplished veteran and free-agent-to-be on a contending team, Peralta has plenty in common with Melky Cabrera, who starred for the San Francisco Giants in 2012. He flunked a midsummer drug test, and the Giants declined to utilize him that October. They won the World Series anyway.

One slight difference is that Dombrowski‘s troublemaker will regain eligibility with three games remaining in the regular season.

Let’s consider whether that—or any other factor—can sway the longtime GM one way or the other.

 

Why They Should

Peralta was a .305/.361/.461 hitter with a 121 OPS+ in 2013 prior to taking his punishment from Major League Baseball. He has a .275/.332/.434 batting line (106 OPS+) since joining the Tigers in 2010, and a .268/.330/.425 line (101 OPS+) in parts of 11 MLB seasons.

Whichever way you slice it, he would be an asset to the Tigers roster, both in late September and the postseason. The 31-year-old is simply better than Don Kelly or Ramon Santiago.

Although Peralta’s defense isn’t graceful, do not dispute its overall effectiveness. His strengths include strong hands and a accurate throwing arm, hence six separate seasons—2006-2008 and 2011-2013—ranking among the American League’s top three in fielding percentage at shortstop.

Baseball-Reference.com values him at 2.4 dWAR over the past three seasons, while FanGraphs gives him a 25.5 UZR. For comparison’s sake, Jimmy Rollins of the Philadelphia Phillies has compiled -0.8 dWAR and 8.5 UZR with comparable playing time in that span.

Peralta could serve as an alternative at third base should slugger Miguel Cabrera continue to battle nagging injuries. He has 203 career starts at the position, including some as recently as 2010. Miggy will return to Detroit’s lineup on Friday, but he missed four of the five previous games due to abdominal pain, not to mention a handful in late July and early August.

In James Schemhl’s write-up, Dombrowski praises Peralta’s work ethic and notes that the All-Star was “apologetic” about his involvement with performance-enhancing drugs.

If the front office respects him as a player and a person, why not activate him upon serving the full 50 games?

The organization has to pay Peralta during those final days of the season. Might as well get some production for it.

 

Why They Shouldn’t

Let’s say that Cabrera heads down the stretch in solid health and Jose Iglesias continues to supplement his Gold Glove-caliber defense with .300 hitting (albeit a powerless one). That would relegate Peralta to a reserve role.

Not only will he show rust after nearly two months away from the majors, but the Tigers would be asking him to leave his comfort zone and try unfamiliar tasks.

Namely, pinch hitting. Peralta has only 22 plate appearances coming off the bench (two since 2012); his .921 OPS in such situations is meaningless considering the small sample size. Requiring a longtime starter to overhaul his normal mental and physical preparation seldom benefits the team.

Future Hall of Famer Jim Thome is a terrific example. His lifetime .956 OPS was dragged down by a .730 OPS in 163 pinch-hitting opportunities.

The upshot—Peralta won’t necessarily make the Tigers better given their current roster composition.

Meanwhile, allowing him to return would certainly offend fans. NPR rounded up some surveys that suggest that the majority of the baseball-loving population holds low opinions of cheaters and wants steroids out of the sport.

Perhaps the biggest question on Dombrowski‘s mind concerns how Peralta’s presence would affect the clubhouse. Would the Tigers embrace the return of a familiar face or feel angry about being lied to? MLB.com’s Jason Beck asked around in the immediate aftermath of the suspension announcement, and let’s just say there wasn’t consensus support.

 

Our Verdict

Let him play.

Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland probably won’t approach him with open arms, but how about firm handshakes for someone who has contributed so much on the field?

Winning is the Tigers’ No. 1 objective, and Peralta is more likely to help in that pursuit than he is to weigh them down.

 

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Will the Tigers Pull off 2013 MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Sweep?

The 2013 Detroit Tigers are a month away from postseason baseball, an excellent bet to repeat as American League champions and a marquee attraction for Major League Baseball’s broadcasting plan down the stretch of the season.

Part of that allure: Star power.

From Justin Verlander to Prince Fielder to Torii Hunter, the current version of the Detroit Tigers are one of the most recognizable groups in recent memory.

When the 2013 season awards are rolled out in early November, they might add some hardware, along with a possible World Series title, to their showcase.

For the first time in the history of the sport, a team could house the league MVP, Cy Young winner and Rookie of the Year. Before you scoff at the notion of the trifecta, consider the claims to the awards by Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer and Jose Iglesias, respectively.

First, of course, resides Miguel Cabrera atop the sport and the American League. While a very, very good argument can be made that Mike Trout is baseball’s best all-around player, Cabrera is a virtual lock for the league MVP.

Despite the unlikelihood of a Triple Crown repeat, Cabrera has been significantly better in 2013 than 2012. His OPS, OPS-plus, home run, RBI, and strikeout-to-walk numbers are all either superior or in line to surpass the MVP campaign of 2012. Despite the greatness of Mike Trout, it’s hard to imagine the same writers who voted Cabrera last season having a change of heart when he’s improved.

Furthermore, the notion of giving the award to a player on a winning team fits Cabrera again. While Mike Trout’s team is headed for another season without October baseball, Cabrera’s Tigers are on the path to the postseason.

On the mound, Scherzer has surpassed 2011 MVP/Cy Young winner Justin Verlander as the current ace of Jim Leyland’s staff. While his 19-1 record may hearken back to old-school Cy Young voting and archaic thinking, his peripheral numbers, or, in other words, the numbers that actually matter when valuing individual players, work in his favor as well.

With apologies to Yu Darvish and Chris Sale, the AL Cy Young battle looks to be a two-horse battle between Seattle‘s Felix Hernandez and Scherzer.

If Scherzer‘s gaudy win total (19 to 12) was all that separated him from the former Cy Young winner, the possibility of all three awards in the Motor City would be far-fetched. A quick look at the numbers shows a very close battle, with Detroit’s star earning the upper hand.

While Felix now leads in Fangraphs‘ WAR (5.8-5.4) and innings pitched (194.1-183.1), Scherzer is sporting a lower ERA (2.90-3.01) and a higher K/9 rate (9.87-9.26).

With Scherzer two starts behind (29-27), pitching Tuesday and Hernandez leaving Monday’s start with back cramps, according to MLB.com, there’s an excellent chance that Hernandez’s lead in total WAR and innings thrown won’t be there by the end of September.

Although wins and losses aren’t the deciding factor in Cy Young voting any longer, it’s hard to believe the voters won’t side with Scherzer if he leads or is tied in WAR, innings, ERA and K/9 along with a seven win advantage on their personal ledgers.

Lastly, the American League Rookie of the Year race is, well, dull.

Using Fangraphs‘ WAR, the top five this season pale in comparison to their famous National League counterparts: Cleveland‘s Yan Gomes, Kansas City‘s David Lough, Iglesias, Seattle’s Danny Farquhar and Tampa Bay‘s Wil Myers.

Meanwhile, the NL features this top five: Miami’s Jose Fernandez, Los Angeles’ Yasiel Puig, Colorado‘s Nolan Arenado, New York’s Juan Lagares and Los Angeles’ Hyun-jin Ryu.

When the Tigers traded for Igesias in July, they were proactively filling a hole left by the impending Jhonny Peralta suspension. Now, through the merits of outstanding defense, an above-average OPS-plus and a lackluster rookie class, they might have the American League Rookie of the Year on their hands.

The 2013 Detroit Tigers are on the path to becoming the most decorated team in baseball history.

Comment below, follow me on Twitter or “like” my Facebook page to talk all things baseball.

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Miguel Cabrera’s Insane 2013 Season Could Result in Even Rarer ‘Sextuple Crown’

Miguel Cabrera is one month away from possibly joining the likes of Nap Lajoie, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Chuck Klein and Carl Yastrzemski.

If all goes according plan, Cabrera will join the five Hall of Famers as the only players in MLB history to win the “Sextuple Crown,” according to Ted Berg of USA Today.

What is the “Sextuple Crown?” It means leading the league in average, home runs, RBI, hits, slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

With September nearly upon us, Cabrera leads his league in every one of those categories besides home runs. He sits three home runs back of Orioles slugger Chris Davis, but he’s swiftly closing that gap. Cabrera has 13 home runs to Davis’ nine since the All-Star Break, and Davis’ numbers seem to suggest he’s seeing fewer pitches to drive with more exposure to the league.

Cabrera’s leads in batting average, on-base percentage, and RBI appear insurmountable. Davis sits within striking distance in slugging percentage, and a few guys could catch Cabrera in hits—especially if the Tigers start giving him regular rest once they clinch the AL Central.

The question is, can Cabrera win in all six categories?

 

The Stats/Schedule

Before we go any further, it’s important to look at the stats:

As of Tuesday, it seems Cabrera has average and on-base percentage. He also has a decent lead in slugging and RBI.

However, he’s only ahead of Adrian Beltre by four hits and is trailing Chris Davis by three home runs. If Cabrera’s run for the crown were halted, it would likely be in one of those two categories.

So let’s look at the the rest of the schedule for Cabrera, Beltre and Davis. While starting pitchers will be different, each player’s schedule will have a lot to say about who will come out on top in those categories.

The home run aspect is hit or miss. Davis has hit nine home runs since the All-Star break, while Cabrera has hit 13 home runs. It would seem Cabrera is hitting with more power and could overtake Davis by year’s end.

All Miggy has to do is hit three more home runs than Davis over the last month and that stat category will be his. But again, it all depends on pitching matchups.

When looking at ESPN’s team pitching stats, Beltre could have the advantage in getting more hits as he’ll face teams ranked No. 1 (Houston), No. 2 (Minnesota) and No. 5 (Angels) in hits allowed for a total of 12 games. Cabrera has games against teams ranked No. 2 (Minnesota), No. 7 (Seattle) and No. 14 (Boston) for a total of nine games.

Beltre does have seven games against the two toughest teams to get hits off of (Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay).

Since the break, Beltre has 48 hits compared to 38 for Cabrera. That could come into play as well.

 

Prediction

When looking at the numbers and the remaining schedule, I don’t think Cabrera will win in all six categories. More than likely, he’ll win five and miss out on hits.

The Texas Rangers are in a tighter race in the AL West than the Detroit Tigers are in the AL Central. Cabrera could get a few games of rest down the stretch, while Beltre will likely be playing every day.

While he won’t win in all six categories, Cabrera should still win his second straight Triple Crown. He’s already ahead in average and RBI, and if he can continue hitting home runs, he’ll overtake Davis for that by season’s end.

Even with only five category wins, Cabrera should still be easily named the AL MVP.

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Detroit Tigers: Why Miguel Cabrera Should Not Rest Down the Stretch

Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter on the planet and is in a league of his own this season.

There’s no reason the Detroit Tigers should keep him out of the lineup the next couple weeks.

Cabrera has been forced to miss eight games this season due to various injuries and pundits have debated whether the Tigers should give the defending Triple Crown and MVP winner a few days off down the stretch.

But you cannot justify sitting down the best hitter in baseball during the most crucial stretch of the season.

The last time Cabrera missed a game was Aug. 3.

Since then, he’s batted .359 with a .433 on-base percentage, 11 home runs and 31 RBI in 92 at-bats through 23 games.

The Tigers have gone 14-9 in that span, with seven of those wins coming by two runs or less.

Detroit is only 5.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Indians with 31 games left in the season, and the American League Central race is far from over.

Detroit, Cleveland and the Kansas City Royals are all above .500 this season and the Tigers play Cleveland and Kansas City a combined nine more times this season. The Tigers are also entrenched in a tough series with the Oakland Athletics and have the first-place Boston Red Sox looming.

The Tigers are 7-1 without Cabrera in the lineup this season, but he’s shown that he can continue to dominate despite small, lingering issues that may be bothering him day-to-day.

Cabrera at 70 percent is a much better option than anyone else at the hot corner at 100 percent.

Detroit does not want to have to travel to Tampa Bay or Boston this postseason in search of back-to-back World Series berths. It needs to lock up the best record in the AL and ensure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Among AL teams, the Tigers have the second-best record at home this season at 41-24, but away from Comerica Park, the Tigers are 36-30.

If you take out Cabrera, who makes everyone around him better, there is a gaping hole opened in the middle of the lineup.

I agree that the Tigers should sit him for a game or two if he wants—if they have home field locked up with a few games to go in the regular season—but not a minute before that is ensured.

Cabrera is too valuable to be watching games in September from the bench.

Play him.

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