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The injury bug has bitten Detroit Tigers star Yoenis Cespedes, as he left the team’s spring training game on Thursday with a leg injury. 

Continue for updates. 

Cespedes Not Traveling to Jupiter

Saturday, March 14

James Schmehl of MLive.com reported that while Cespedes is feeling better, he won’t travel with the Tigers to Jupiter, Florida, for spring training games on Sunday and Monday. 

Cespedes Day-to-Day with Quad Issue

Thursday, March 12

According to Jason Beck of MLB.com, Cespedes was taken out with tightness in his left quadriceps and is officially listed as day-to-day:

The Tigers are already without Victor Martinez, who underwent knee surgery in February that is expected to keep him out for most, if not all, of spring training and an early part of the regular season. 

Cesepdes was acquired from Boston during the offseason to provide additional support in the lineup for Martinez and Miguel Cabrera. He’s battled injuries throughout his career, playing more than 135 games only once, so the Tigers will be cautious with the 29-year-old. 

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Uncertainty surrounds the Detroit Tigers. 

It has since the end of their virtually nonexistent postseason run last October when they were swept by the Baltimore Orioles, and it became more prevalent as the offseason saw their offensive stars, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, go under the knife. And just because spring training is off and running, the question marks will not subside.

However, while the murkiness might start with the health and performance of veterans, including pitchers David Price, Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander, it does not end there. It ends with, and could be cleared up by, some of the team’s youth performing throughout the lineup.

While J.D. Martinez provided that boost last season, this year the Tigers are looking to players like Jose Iglesias, Nick Castellanos, Anthony Gose and possibly Steven Moya. Even Yoenis Cespedes could be a surprise contributor if he becomes more than just a bopper.

Whoever it might be, the Tigers need at least one of them to prove he is a major league offensive force to alleviate any potential health or production concerns that seem inevitable for this club, not to mention the loss of pitcher Max Scherzer in free agency and Rick Porcello as part of the trade that landed Cespedes from the Boston Red Sox.

Aside from Martinez, this spring has given Gose an early stage to shine. And while we are only about a week into games, what he has done is still impressive.

In 14 Grapefruit League at-bats, Gose has eight hits, a double, a triple, two walks and is 3-for-3 stealing bases. He has also created havoc on the bases with his speed, drawing errant pickoff throws and forcing errors while running the bases when the ball is in play.

Anthony Gose stole another run. This time, by going second-to-third on the throw back to the mound. Then by going third-to-home on an error.

— anthony fenech (@anthonyfenech) March 9, 2015

While this is promising for a player who is expected to be a platooning center fielder when the season starts, Gose, 24, understands about not getting too high on spring training results or seeing himself as the full-time guy out there.

“It’s spring training,” Gose told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky. “It’s been four days. If I’m doing this at the All-Star break, then come talk to me.”

Gose is a long way from that point, especially when you consider he has had a full season’s worth of plate appearances in the big leagues—616 spread over three years—and produced a .234/.301/.332 line. All of those appearances came while with the Toronto Blue Jays before the Tigers traded for him in November.

The other man the Tigers are counting on this season, and to fill a much more prominent and permanent role, is 25-year-old shortstop Jose Iglesias. As a 23-year-old second-year player with the Red Sox and Tigers in 2013, Iglesias showed a ton of promise by hitting .303/.349/.386 over 382 plate appearances, most of them with Boston when he hit .330/.376/.409 in 63 games.

He was traded at the deadline of that season in the three-team deal that sent Jake Peavy to the Red Sox. But since that half-season with the Tigers, Iglesias has not played a single inning. He missed all of last season with stress fractures in both shins, and, of course, the Tigers felt his pain as their shortstops hit a league-worst .223 and played poor defense.

Hope for Iglesias is once again prevalent this spring as he is healthy—he had a minor scare last week when he was hit by a batting-practice line drive in, of all places, his shin—and expects to be productive.

“He doesn’t look like he’s missed a year of baseball,” Tigers manager Brad Ausmus told Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown last week. “I really don’t think missing a year is going to be an issue.”

If it is not, and Iglesias can return to being a .300 hitter and the kind of threat who gets on base nearly 38 percent of the time, he will go a long way in easing any time Cabrera or Martinez might miss.

While Moya, 23, probably will head to the minors for some more seasoning, another 23-year-old, Castellanos, is around to stay as long as he is reasonably productive. Last year, in his first full season in the majors, he was about that with a 93 OPS-plus, although he was worth a minus-1.5 WAR (Baseball-Reference) because of shoddy defense.

The Tigers need more from him this year. While ZiPS projects him to again be awful defensively—minus-12 runs saved—it also believes he can reach 17 home runs, 77 RBIs, with a .335 weighted OBA and a 108 OPS-plus. If he can give them at least that kind of production and outdo his low defensive projections, he will become a solid contributor in a lineup that needs every piece of certainty it can get going forward.

For all their injury concerns, potential declines and regression, and future uncertainty—Price, the ace, can be a free agent after this season—the Tigers remain the favorites in the American League Central for 2015. That would give them a fifth consecutive division title, but the gap between them and the rest is closing.

The Chicago White Sox improved. The Cleveland Indians might have the best rotation in baseball. The Kansas City Royals will be defending their pennant after missing a World Series title by one mighty whack of the bat. Even the Minnesota Twins should be slightly better than they were last season, if nothing else.

That kind of competition means the Tigers will no longer roll through the Central, and it will require one of the aforementioned young players to become a significant contributor this summer. They might not need to do the heavy lifting, but they will have to at least carry their own weight.

If the Tigers get that production from one or more of them, a fifth straight postseason ticket will undoubtedly be punched.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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There weren’t many reasons to be optimistic about Justin Verlander in 2014. He spent the season producing like a below-average pitcher and all too often looked the part.

Take a listen to what’s being said about Verlander now, however, and you’ll pick up quite a bit of optimistic talk. And given the state of the Detroit Tigers, it sounds like just what the doctor ordered.

On Sunday, the 32-year-old right-hander pitched a live batting practice session. Not exactly Game 7 of the World Series, but Verlander showed enough life to draw rave reviews.

“That’s the best I’ve seen Ver stuff-wise, off the mound, since I’ve gotten this job,” Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus told Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, adding, “It was exactly what he wanted. He looked very good today.”

Granted, this is only Ausmus’ second year on the job. But knowing that his first year involved watching Verlander riding weak stuff to an ugly 4.54 ERA, Ausmus liking what he’s seeing is welcome news.

And it’s not the first bit of welcome Verlander news of the spring. We learned two weeks ago that he had added 20 pounds of muscle over the offseason, and more recently that he’s feeling far more ready for 2015 than he was for 2014 after undergoing offseason core surgery.

“To be honest, it’s night and day,” Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. “I feel better than I have in years. I was able to get back into my normal routine, get into the weight room. I also was seeing a physical therapist for an hour-and-a-half, three days a week, just learning about my body, how the surgery could have affected me. I feel great right now.”

The disclaimer here is that you have to take spring training talk like this for what it’s worth. But still, if you consider it all at once, you wonder if a bounce-back season might be in order for the former American League Cy Young and MVP winner.

For the Tigers’ sake, here’s hoping. Because if they want to have even so much as a chance at a fifth straight AL Central title, they’re going to need at least a bounce-back season from Verlander.

In lieu of a crystal ball, what we have for looking ahead to the 2015 season are projections. And though they don’t agree on too much, the projections at Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs agree on this: The Tigers are only going to win 83 games.

The bright side is that the projection systems do tend to be conservative with win totals. The not-so-bright side is that neither system thinks Detroit’s projected record will mean an easy AL Central title. Baseball Prospectus has the Tigers finishing only two games ahead of the Cleveland Indians, while FanGraphs has them finishing a game behind the Indians.

As for where Verlander fits into all this, here’s what Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs are projecting for his follow-up to 2014:

*That 0.8 WAR comes from FanGraphs‘ runs-allowed calculation of WAR.

Both projection systems anticipate significant improvement from Verlander in 2015. Though they don’t think he’ll go back to being the ace who authored a 2.52 ERA and averaged 8.3 WAR across 2011 and 2012, his being more like the pitcher who had a 3.46 ERA in 2013 is good enough.

At any rate, here’s the point: The projections figure that even if Verlander turns the clock back to 2013, it will only put the Tigers in the mix for the AL Central title rather than clearly in the lead for it. The only Verlander powerful enough to give the Tigers a push like that is Vintage Verlander.

Which, given what we know about these Tigers, shouldn’t be too hard to believe.

Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are gone. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are another year older, and banged up to boot. J.D. Martinez is a regression candidate. Detroit’s bullpen still looks as stable as a lie detector attached to Homer Simpson.

To be sure, Verlander isn’t the only Tigers player who could outplay his projections and potentially save the team by doing so. But nobody’s track record bodes as well as his, and all the positive talk that’s coming out now only bolsters the notion that he might again be the ace the Tigers need him to be.

But beyond the talk lie the practicalities of Verlander regaining his ace status. Naturally, that’s where things get more complicated.

The one thing everyone wants Verlander to have again is velocity. It’s something he used to have in spades but not anymore. According to FanGraphs, his average fastball velocity has fallen from 95.0 miles per hour in 2011 to just 92.3 miles per hour in 2014. 

As for what Verlander thinks about his velocity possibly coming back, he told Rosenthal: “I don’t think I need it to—but I hope it does. The ball is coming out of my hand much better now than it was a year ago.”

That sounds like a promise, but it’s one to be careful about getting excited over. 

Head to Brooks Baseball, and you’ll see a graph of Verlander’s velocity going down as his age has gone up. So as convenient as it is to chalk his velocity struggles up to last year’s surgery, it looks more like a natural byproduct of the ongoing and futile battle between Human Mortal and Father Time.

With that being the case, it’s in Verlander’s interest to accept reality and make his game less about power and more about deception. You know, maybe incorporate a cutter and sinker to go with his four-seamer.

However, it doesn’t sound like he’s ready to do this.

“I think it’s a little unfair to judge on last season. I think it’s a different story if I go out there this year and it’s the same thing,” he said, via Chis Iott of MLive.com. “I’m not going to judge changing my entire career based on an injury that plagued me last year. I don’t think that’s the right way to approach things.”

Basically, Verlander has it in mind to try to do the same things he did last year and expect different results. That’s typically the definition of insanity, and he may find that out the hard way.

Fortunately, there’s more to pitching than stuff. There’s also command, and that’s something Verlander’s return to health could actually improve.

This is from Chris McCosky of the Detroit News: “As he would discover later, the core muscle issues adversely impacted his right shoulder, which in turn forced him to alter his throwing motion which ultimately led to the second-worst season of his career in 2014.”

There is some evidence that Verlander’s throwing motion wasn’t the same in 2014 as it had been before. That didn’t manifest in fewer pitches in the strike zone—his Zone percentage actually went up—but Verlander’s 2014 is a case study in how more pitches in the zone isn’t necessarily a good thing.

Take Verlander’s fastball command. Between 2011 and 2013, we can see he mainly played with the arm-side edge of the zone, thereby pounding lefties away and righties in:

Now, compare that to what Verlander’s fastball command was like in 2014:

Relative to the three prior years, Verlander worked in the strike zone with his fastball a lot more often in 2014. Worse, he was mainly working up in the zone.

That’s the kind of approach you can get away with when you’re throwing 95. But 92? Not as much. 

And though this didn’t necessarily create problems for Verlander’s heat, it did create problems for his secondaries.

Because the velocity separation between Verlander’s heat and his secondaries is getting smaller as his fastball velocity decreases, he needs to be more careful about where he puts his secondaries. That’s something he wasn’t doing in 2014, as Baseball Savant says he shattered his previous high for secondary pitches in the strike zone. He paid for it, too, as those were hit at a career-worst .294 clip.

So, in a nutshell: Verlander was throwing way too many hittable fastballs in 2014 and exacerbating matters by throwing too many hittable secondaries. He was giving hitters every excuse to sit fastball and making it too easy for them to adjust when they didn’t get one.

Verlander may not be able to fix his velocity, but he can fix this—especially if what he said about his core surgery affecting his throwing motion is true. If he can get back to where he was and recapture his old command, then he has a chance to overcome his lost velocity and pitch more like an ace.

That’s what the Tigers should be crossing their fingers for, anyway. Because the way they’re shaping up for 2015, having Vintage Verlander wouldn’t be a luxury.

It would be more like a necessity.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The Detroit Tigers project to be contenders once again in 2015. They will head into the new season as favorites to clinch the American League Central Division title for the fifth straight year.

The Tigers will sport a slightly different look to last year after a few nips and tucks this offseason. Significant alterations include the additions of outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Anthony Gose, as well as starting pitcher Shane Greene. Passing them on their way out were veteran starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello.

Lost in all of these wheelings and dealings was a golden opportunity for Detroit to add a very special player to its ranks.

Andrew Miller was arguably the premier relief pitcher on the market this winter. His numbers during the past three seasons show why:

Outside of the otherworldly Aroldis Chapman, the 6’7” left-hander has claims to be the best southpaw reliever in the game.

Miller also offers something that Detroit’s relievers have generally lacked in recent times—the ability to deliver when under pressure. Billy Chuck of GammonsDaily.com unearthed some eye-popping stats for Miller during clutch situations in 2014: “Batters hit .133 against him with men on; .151 with men in scoring position; .036 with two outs; and with RISP and two outs, batters hit .077.”

For those still not convinced, check out last year’s postseason numbers: 7.1 innings pitched, one hit, one walk, zero earned runs and eight strikeouts.

The guy is unequivocally awesome.

Unfortunately for Detroit, Miller decided not to return to the team that drafted him in the first round back in 2006. Instead, he will be suiting up in pinstripes for the next four years after inking a $36 million contract with the New York Yankees, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

This is the signing that Detroit really had to make.

The chronic failures of its bullpen stretches back a long way now. As the table below shows, its ERA has finished 10th or worse in the AL in seven of the past eight years:

The playoffs have been even worse. The acrid taste of Shane Victorino’s grand slam off Jose Veras in 2013 and Delmon Young clearing the bases off Joakim Soria last year still linger on the palates of Detroit fans.

The bullpen’s overall postseason numbers in its current four-year playoff run tell a lucid story:

It’s ugly, and it appears to be getting worse.

To be fair to team president/general manager Dave Dombrowski, he has kicked down more than a few doors in his attempts to get the bullpen right.

Joe Nathan—MLB’s active leader in career saves—was signed last winter. Also, after dominating with the Texas Rangers early last season, Soria was picked up during the summer. After struggling mightily in 2014, both return this year with their combined services costing the team $17 million.

Veteran Joel Hanrahan was re-signed, and flame-thrower Bruce Rondon also comes back into the fold for Detroit. However, they remain big question marks, as neither has pitched in a game since 2013 after both undergoing Tommy John surgery. The signing of Joba Chamberlain this week also provides the team with more depth.

But the pen still lacks a dominant figure; somebody who can be trusted to get outs whenever the team needs them.

Miller could have been that go-to guy in Motown.

His capture made sense on many levels—a genuine stud arm; durable and young; a successor to Nathan as closer; good under pressure; great in the postseason; and formerly one of Detroit’s own.

On top of that, he’s a lefty. Jason Beck of MLB.com noted recently that a second southpaw in the pen is the Tigers’ final roster void. An internal candidate will probably fill it now. However, with all due respect to Ian Krol, Blaine Hardy and the others, Miller dwarfs them all—both literally and figuratively.

Detroit still has plenty of upside to its roster. The offense could lead the league in runs this year, and the starting rotation still looks very good, especially with a strong top three. But if the bullpen hemorrhages again, Tigers fans are advised to avoid peeking at Yankees box scores and wondering what could have been.

Unless otherwise stated, stats in this article are courtesy of FanGraphs.com and MLB.com.

Hit me up on Twitter: @jdunc1979

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Although reliever Joba Chamberlain‘s 2014 MLB season didn’t reach an ideal conclusion, there is still a place for his live arm in the big leagues.

The eight-year veteran is finally off the market as he has agreed to a one-year major league deal with the Detroit Tigers, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports:

Chris McCosky of the Detroit News confirmed Rosenthal’s report and noted that the deal was officially done.

Rosenthal reported that the deal was worth $1 million, plus incentives.  

After a great deal of back-and-forth early in his career with the New York Yankees, Chamberlain has settled in as a relief pitcher over the past several seasons. He has never been able to replicate the success he had as a rookie in 2007 when he posted a 0.38 ERA in 19 appearances, but he acquitted himself well in 2014.

Chamberlain signed with the Detroit Tigers last offseason after seven campaigns in pinstripes. He proceeded to post his best statistical season since 2011 as he finished with a 3.57 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 63 innings.

In many ways, he could be considered a bright spot within a bullpen that struggled mightily as a unit. Had Chamberlain’s season ended there, then the narrative would have been much different than it is now. That wasn’t the case, though, as the 29-year-old righty proceeded to implode in the playoffs.

The Tigers were swept from the American League Division Series by the Baltimore Orioles, and Chamberlain’s poor outings in Games 1 and 2 had a lot to do with it. According to SportsCenter, Joba sported an astronomically high ERA:

In all, he surrendered four earned runs on three hits in just 0.1 innings pitched. To Chamberlain’s credit, he didn’t attempt to run from the criticism, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick:

If nothing else, Chamberlain displayed a good attitude after getting knocked around in those outings. According to Brendan Savage of MLive.com, he insisted that his confidence wasn’t shaken despite getting chased twice:

I feel great. I feel physically better than I have ever. I want the ball no matter what, whether I’ve thrown 10 good ones or 10 bad ones. That’s the name of the game. … There’s always a point where it comes in your career where you’re gonna go through this stuff and that’s part of the game. But you get knocked down seven, you get back up eight. And that’s all that matters.

Chamberlain’s demeanor is something that may have appealed to his new team. Based on how he pitched in the postseason, however, it is difficult to imagine the organization giving him a role greater than a sixth-inning middle man.

Perhaps Chamberlain could handle setup situations during the regular season, but there has to be a great deal of concern regarding his ability to get the job done come playoff time.    

His awful showing this year was somewhat indicative of his overall postseason record. In 16 career playoff innings, Chamberlain has a 5.06 ERA and bloated 1.81 WHIP. Even so, he has immense potential that was worth gambling on.

It can be argued that he is still living off the reputation he built in 2007 to some degree, but he most definitely has the ability to be dominant when he is on top of his game.

Chamberlain likely damaged his chances of a big, long-term contract during the playoffs; however, he is now in a spot where he can be a valuable innings eater.

Joba filled that role over the course of 69 appearances during the 2014 regular season, and a similar performance would make this signing very much worthwhile.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter

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The Detroit Tigers are once again favorites to triumph in the American League Central this season.

However, the four-time reigning division champions are no certainty to prevail in arguably baseball’s tightest division.

The Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians are now established contenders, and an outstanding offseason for the Chicago White Sox has brought them into the picture.

As per usual, the Tigers have had another busy winter. A paradigm shift, which was initiated last offseason, gives this team a different hue to what they featured just a few seasons ago.

Last winter’s acquisitions of Rajai Davis and Ian Kinsler signalled a new era of speed and dynamism in Detroit. November’s trade for outfielder Anthony Gose continued that theme. The return of Jose Iglesias from injury and the addition of Yoenis Cespedes will also markedly improve Detroit’s defense.

That’s the good news. What’s concerning is the state of the starting rotation.

Veterans Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello have both fled and taken their 124 combined victories over the past four years with them.

But, after coming up empty-handed in recent years, a cultural shift was needed in Detroit. A more audacious, speedy outfit that plays and better defensive could vindicate the decisions of team president/ general manager Dave Dombrowski in the years to come.

Read on for more comprehensive analysis of the Tigers as spring training looms just over the horizon.

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Questions remain as to when Miguel Cabrera will be ready for the 2015 MLB season after he had ankle surgery in October of last year.    

Chris Iott of MLive.com reported that the Detroit Tigers will have a much better picture of his health status after he visits doctors next Tuesday:

Cabrera has been a model of consistency not only at the plate but also in terms of durability. With the lone exception being his rookie season, in which the then-Florida Marlins called him up in June, Cabrera has made 600-plus plate appearances in all but one of his 12 years in the majors.

Beyond trading for Alfredo Simon and Yoenis Cespedes, the Tigers haven’t made a ton of moves in the offseason.

They’ll most likely get pushed hard by the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox in the division this coming year. According to Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA projects only a four-game difference between first and third place in the American League Central.

Getting Cabrera back healthy quickly will be of the utmost importance for Detroit. Even though his 2014 numbers failed to reach the absurd levels of his back-to-back MVP years, he remains by far the team’s most important offensive threat.  

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The Detroit Tigers have become a perennial powerhouse in the American League in the last few years, winning their division four years in a row and repeatedly making deep playoff runs.

They have done this thanks to a deep starting rotation and a powerful lineup.

However, it looks like the Tigers might not have either this year as spring training approaches. The most recent bad news to hit the Tigers camp is that Victor Martinez has a torn meniscus in his left knee and will miss at least six weeks.

Martinez had arguably his best season in 2014, hitting .335 with 32 home runs, 103 RBIs and a league-leading .974 OPS. His uncanny ability to draw walks and get on base resulted in an outstanding 1.67 walk-to-strikeout ratio—which is almost unparalleled territory as most hitters are sacrificing strikeouts and batting average for power.

His outstanding season netted him a four-year, $68 million contract.

Unfortunately, that was one of the few moves the Tigers front office made this offseason, and the absence of Martinez adds yet another question to the already-spotty roster.

Miguel Cabrera had ankle surgery in late October, and Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reported that it is still unclear whether or not the two-time MVP will be ready for the start of spring training. Even if Cabrera is healthy, it is uncertain whether he can return to his usual stellar self.

The Tigers did acquire outfield slugger Yoenis Cespedes from the Red Sox in exchange for Rick Porcello. While he should provide some power in the middle of the order, it can’t be forgotten that Cespedes hasn’t hit above .270 since his rookie year in 2012—and he doesn’t get on base that often, either.

The rest of the lineup is filled with question marks as well. J.D Martinez had a nice year in 2014, but he cooled off down the stretch and it isn’t hard to believe that he may return to being the underperforming outfielder whom the Astros released before the start of last season.

Third baseman Nick Castellanos wasn’t too impressive last year and is not in position to carry any type of significant burden on his back.

Jose Iglesias will return at shortstop after missing all of last season with a shin injury. And while Iglesias is an exciting young player with phenomenal range at short, it is unknown whether or not he can be even a league-average hitter.

Center fielder Anthony Gose possesses game-breaking speed, but unfortunately you can’t steal first base in baseball. He hit only .226 with nearly nonexistent power in 2014, and he hasn’t shown any signs of improvement in that regard in his three-year career.

The lone bright spot of the order might be Ian Kinsler, who has entrenched his name in the conversation of the best second basemen in the game. He hit .275 with 17 home runs and 92 RBIs in his first season in Detroit.

But there are even risks with him. He accumulated those numbers hitting in front of Cabrera and the two productive Martinez sluggers. If those guys have off years, which wouldn’t be a huge surprise considering their ages and injury history, Kinsler may struggle to replicate his 2014 numbers.

The pitching staff is similarly questionable. The Tigers have David Price to anchor the starting rotation, but after him it is not nearly as deep as it has been in years past.

Anibal Sanchez is an ultra-consistent pitcher when healthy, but he only logged 126 innings last year due to injury. But at least then the Tigers had Max Scherzer as well. With Scherzer now a Washington National, the cupboard is pretty bare after Price and Sanchez.

Justin Verlander is no longer the ace he once was—his ERA was 4.54 last year—and the only pitcher the Tigers added this offseason was Alfredo Simon. And while Simon did have a mini-breakout season last year, he struggled in the second half of the season and will have a hard time matching last year’s 3.44 ERA.

Even worse, it’s not like the team can expect an influx of young talent to come to the big league club anytime soon. The Tigers have the worst farm system in the league, and it’s not close. In other words, the future does not look good in Detroit.

Ultimately, the Tigers need way too much to go right to even have a chance to compete in 2015.

They need Cabrera to return from ankle surgery and have an MVP-caliber season. They need Victor Martinez to overcome a second surgery on his left knee and be the stud he was last year. They need J.D. Martinez to follow up last year’s breakout campaign with another strong season.

They need Sanchez to play an injury-free season, Verlander to return to Cy Young status and the bullpen to hold a lead every once in a while.

It’s way, way too much to expect, and there is almost no way the Tigers make the playoffs. The Royals will come into 2015 with confidence after their run to the World Series, and both the White Sox and Indians improved this offseason.

Detroit is losing its grasp on the AL Central, and it could easily miss the playoffs this year.

And it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The Detroit Tigers appeared to have all of their major roster spots sewn up not so long ago. But things can change in a hurry.

The injury bug has bitten this franchise again, which will force some significant shake-ups in the weeks to come.

A knee injury to designated hitter Victor Martinez has put a giant monkey in Detroit’s wrench. Martinez’s recovery from meniscus surgery—due to take place next week—will almost certainly rule him out beyond Opening Day, and potentially as late as midseason.  

With Miguel Cabrera also rehabilitating this winter, Detroit’s two biggest offensive threats could both be watching from the sidelines when April rolls around.

Even if Cabrera is able to DH, it still leaves a big hole at first base. That leaves the Tigers with plenty to mull over.

Apart from this new dilemma, things seem pretty stable. The other position players look concrete in their starting roles, and the rotation is a done deal—notwithstanding a daring move for starter James Shields.

Any other battles waged will be for places on the bench or in the bullpen. The latter could be particularly intriguing with one or two sleepers getting a chance if they have a spectacular spring.

With a few openings available, let’s take a look at the contenders and what their chances are of grabbing one of the available spots.

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The 2015 Detroit Tigers didn’t come into this week short on things worth worrying about, but at least they had Victor Martinez. The 2014 American League MVP runner-up was just fine, thank you.

But the key word there is “was.” And for the Tigers, that has the potential to be devastating.

As the Tigers announced on Thursday, Martinez has a left knee injury that’s going to require him to go under the knife:

Not mentioned is how long Martinez’s recovery is going to take, but these tweets from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Morosi of Fox Sports cast doubt on the possibility of him being ready for Opening Day:

In other words: No, this is not a minor thing. If the odds of the switch-hitting 36-year-old repeating his league-leading .974 OPS and career-high 32 home runs from last season weren’t already long enough, Martinez now has to worry about making a full recovery and getting on track without the benefit of spring training.

The Tigers can hope for the best, but they need to plan for the worst. And in this case, the worst could be pretty bad.

Earlier this week, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, via MLB.com, that his roster for 2015 is “basically set.” Since that pretty much goes for the league’s other 29 rosters, now’s a safe time to look at what each team has and project how they could perform in 2015.

And for that, we have actual projections.

The good news is that Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs have the Tigers pegged as the top team in the AL Central. The bad news is that it’s not by much. Both systems barely place them ahead of the Cleveland Indians and not that far ahead of the other teams in the division. And overall, Detroit’s projected record is the worst among baseball’s projected division champs.

This sounds silly based on the Tigers’ recent history as the dominant team in the AL Central, but anyone with objectivity will know the projections have a gripe. As we said at the outset, the Tigers came into the week with plenty of things worth worrying about.

Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are gone and have been replaced by Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene. Justin Verlander is coming off a year that screamed “Decline!” Miguel Cabrera appears to be damaged goods. J.D Martinez is a huge regression candidate. And as per usual, the Tigers bullpen stinks.

In the middle of all this were two pieces that looked solid. One was David Price, and the other was Martinez. And even with the latter unlikely to repeat his other-worldly 2014, both BP’s and FanGraphs‘ projections were taking it for granted that he would be one of Detroit’s more productive hitters in 2015.

And in fairness, there is a chance he will be. Maybe he can make a quick and strong recovery, step into the box on Opening Day and go from there.

We have good reasons, however, not to take that possibility for granted.

For starters, there’s the reality that Martinez is a 36-year-old former catcher. It’s not advised to expect quick and strong recoveries from players like that. Throw in how Martinez missed the entire 2012 season with a left knee injury, and a quick and strong recovery seems all the more unlikely.

This is not to say he can’t be ready by Opening Day or shortly thereafter, mind you. Really, the bigger question is the one that Jon Morosi posed:

To this end, there isn’t a whole lot of precedent we can turn to. But one particularly scary example is Joey Votto.

In 2012, Votto was on an absolutely roll with a .342 average and a .604 slugging percentage through 86 games. But then he went in for medial meniscus surgery on his own left knee, and he returned to hit just .316 with a .421 slugging percentage. That’s a huge loss of power, one that Votto hasn’t yet fully recovered from.

There’s one example of a hitter brought low by the kind of injury Martinez is dealing with, and he himself doesn’t have the most encouraging history with recovering from serious knee injuries.

When Martinez came back from his year off in 2013, he never really got his power going. As FanGraphs can show, even as he increased his batting average by over 100 points from the first half to the second half, his Isolated Slugging (slugging percentage minus singles) only improved by 17 points.

As MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince put it, Martinez’s power was compromised because he was still working to “get his legs back into playing shape.” And throughout the year, it’s not surprising that his power was slightly worse from the left side of the plate. When batting lefty, his surgically repaired left leg wasn’t exactly a sturdy foundation from which to draw power.

Granted, Martinez’s latest knee injury isn’t as serious as the torn ACL that robbed him of his 2012 season. But there could very well end up being a sizable gap between the time when Martinez is healthy and the time when he’s in real playing shape. Those two are different things, after all.

If the price for that is a notable loss of power, a guy who was the Tigers’ most dangerous hitter in 2014 is going to be rendered ordinary for a solid chunk of 2015. In light of the lack of talent separation between them and the rest of the AL Central, that could be a deal-breaker for their entire season.

What could brighten the mood would be Dombrowski pulling a rabbit out of his hat like when he responded to Martinez’s 2012 injury by signing Prince Fielder. That ended up having the desired effect, as Fielder easily replaced Martinez’s production.

But don’t count on this happening. There are no hitters even close to Fielder’s caliber on the free-agent market, and the Tigers are short on the payroll flexibility and the expendable assets they would need to acquire a star-level hitter in a trade.

So what the Tigers should be doing right now is wishing, hoping and/or praying that Martinez can shrug this injury off and immediately start hitting like it never happened.

Because right now, it looks like a season that hasn’t even begun yet has been dealt a killing blow.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

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