Kuzul

I am proud to announce that the Boston Red Sox have decided to open a brand new Institute for Advanced Science!

The venerable Daisuke Matsuzaka, who will surely become the most expensive physics professor in the history of the world, will be the first tenured faculty member. He will draw upon his vast knowledge in the area of streamlined, aerodynamic flight to raise a whole new generation of power-hitting, RBI-producing, pocket-protecting nerds.

You can still rest easy, however; this alternate career will not distract the man from his primary duty of raising the collective batting average of the rest of the league.

Okay, perhaps I am being a wee bit harsh, but the guy did manage to give up eight hits and seven earned runs in just two innings to the Tampa Bay Rays! This is a team that, going into the now-abbreviated three game series with the Red Sox at Fenway, had scored only 20 runs all season. In fact, if you remove the nine runs they scored in their only non-Sox victory, they only mustered 11 runs in eight games, and more than two runs in only two games.

In case I’m not painting the picture accurately, let me state this as clearly as I can: The Rays suck…

And yet the Red Sox, to their eternal credit, a testament to their unwavering resolve, were unwilling to be second best! They saw the Rays magical season of tragedy and horror and said, “we can do better than that!” And better they were, losing the two games they played in both spectacular and soul-crushing fashion before Boston fans began weeping so profusely that they flooded the field and forced a postponement of the final match.

This team is much too good at this…

Lester may have been the lone bright spot in the growing rubble of a rapidly crumbling season, building off his stellar outing against the Indians by throwing another seven quality innings. He allowed three earned runs and struck out another eight in a heart-breaking 3-2 loss on Tuesday night.

After the game, he demonstrated the tremendous class and character that can only be found in the spirit of a man of his caliber, when he told reporters, clad in only a towel the size of a face cloth and eating a salami sandwich the size of a basketball, that he “wonders if the Patriots need a backup quarterback.”

So, thanks to the deluge of tears, the Red Sox have two days off. Rumor has it that Terry Francona has already locked the clubhouse doors and refuses to let the players leave until they “think about what they’ve done!” Pedroia did throw a brief tantrum, but Franconca called him into his office and made him sit in the corner until he calmed down enough to take his daily nap.

When the Blue Jays come to town on Friday, all of Red Sox Nation will watch carefully as the team tries to pick up the shattered pieces of their lives and squeeze out a couple of wins. Otherwise, I suggest they go for broke and start actively trying to lose; running out singles to third base, pitching from shortstop, forgoing the center fielder, letting Papelbon close…

If they’re going to lose, they may as well make us laugh.

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Eleven games into 2011, the Boston Red Sox are 2-9.

They’ve dug themselves a nice little hole to work out of, huh?

Amid the many things that are going wrong for the Red Sox, there are some things that are going right. 

David Ortiz is having his best spring in years. Adrian Gonzalez has settled in nicely. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are both coming off superb eight-inning efforts.

The brightest spot for this Boston bunch, however, has to be Dustin Pedroia, who is having an excellent start to 2011 after missing more than half the season last year with a broken foot.

Last Thursday the Sox sat at 0-6 after a gut-wrenching 1-0 loss to the Indians. Reporters asked players to speculate about the reception they would get at Fenway the next day in the team’s home opener.

Dusty didn’t mince his thoughts, challenging the team’s fans to stand their ground, while appealing to both their pride and his own:

“We need ’em. We need someone on our side. Carl and Youk and J.D., they were getting yelled at the whole time. It’ll be good to have someone cheering for us for a change. You’re either two feet in now or you’re two feet out. Let us know now, because we’re coming.”

Pedroia walked his talk the next day, giving the Fenway crowd something to cheer about by sparking the Sox to their first win of the season. In what’s becoming a home-opener tradition, Petey swatted a homer over the Monster.

Absolutely nothing had been going Boston’s way prior to last Friday, and Pedroia took the team on his back off the field and then carried them to victory on the field.

The Laser Show mashed all weekend against the Bronx Bombers, going 9-13 with the aforementioned home run, as well as five RBI and four runs.

Pedroia’s good April is timely. If Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury ever figure out how to hit a baseball again, Terry Francona might bat Pedroia three, behind Ellsbury at leadoff and Crawford at two. Through Monday, Pedey’s three doubles and .333 RISP are good indicators that he would excel at the third spot.

It’s also been especially comforting to see Pedroia hit his stride after playing all of two games in 2010 after June 25. His return to form stands in stark contrast to the early season struggles of fellow DL mates Kevin Youkilis and Ellsbury.

The Red Sox certainly missed Pedroia’s bat last season. Of course, his wasn’t Boston’s only major injury; however, he missed more time in 2010 than any other position player besides Ellsbury.

Dustin Pedroia’s hit the ground running in 2011: maybe some of his teammates can start to follow suit.

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I have made a decision: The 2011 major league baseball season began on April 8th.

I don’t need to hear you tell me that I’m crazy, or stupid, or ugly, or a pervert; the voices in my head tell me that all the time (especially Paul; he’s such a jerk!) This is not about logic, this is about survival. And we all know that the most important thing any organism can do, after eating deep-dish pizza, of course, is to survive. Don’t argue with me, I didn’t make the rules.

I have some solid, scientific evidence to back up my claim, too:

1. It was revealed that the Red Sox were not given a coffee grinder in either Texas or Cleveland and have been living off only store-bought Red Bull for a week. Some could argue that this is in direct violation of the Geneva Convention, making both the Rangers and Indians guilty of war crimes. But above all, it most certainly nullifies the first six games.

2. The Red Sox were also only given a draft copy of the 2011 season that had an additional six preseason games listed, and were never mailed the updated copy. They clearly weren’t really trying against Texas or Cleveland, they were still tuning up! Therefore, the early season losses were the fault of the commissioner, and possible Jerry Remy, not the team.

3. Also, Cleveland sets its rivers on fire every few years, which offers them a clear unfair psychological advantage that the league should investigate immediately (send in the UN).

4. Texas doesn’t really exist.

Given the irrefutable proof listed above, combined with an eloquent, beautiful and spectacular 2-1 series massacre against the arch-rival New York Yankees over the weekend that was in no way only a mediocre performance, I can only conclude that this team is back in shape and ready to show what they are truly made of (meat).

Of course, there are still concerns. The Red Sox did get rather poor pitching performances out of both John Lackey and Clay Buchholz, both of which failed to get out of the fifth with even a shred of dignity. Also, the Sox offense managed to strand 32 base runners. They seemed to get a dozen hits every inning but somehow almost never scored a run, a feat only accomplished by a team with an intimate knowledge of physics and a desire to lose spectacularly.

But the signs of life were unmistakable. Pedroia racked up an astounding nine hits to raise his season average to .400 (is it too early to compare him to Ted Williams?) and David Ortiz had four hits (all while looking fabulous!) while Youkilis seemed to walk more times than he had legal plate appearances (I suspect evil was somehow involved). And the main event, Josh Beckett, pitched a stellar, lights-out performance on Sunday, throwing 11 innings of shutout baseball, allowing only -1 walks and amassing 29 strikeouts en-route to a two-win outing. He was so good that the President called him to congratulate him on his effort, but he hung up because he’s from Texas.

Also, Jason Varitek looked annoyingly comfortable at the plate, something he has no business doing, as I had him all but written off as a ludicrously expensive bench coach for the remainder of 2011.

Carl Crawford still sucks, though.

Up next, the Red Sox welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to Fenway. This is a team so ungodly awful that they managed to become the one shining beacon of hope during the Red Sox’ 0-6 season start, similar to the emotion of seeing a haggard homeless person just a few minutes after being dumped by your girlfriend. If the Sox can take at least two games in the series and face Toronto with a 4-8 record or better, then I’d say the team is back on track and ready to make some noise (with a vuvuzela).

Until our next meet-up, stock pile your nachos and get ready to ride out an assuredly pleasant stretch of Red Sox victories; the 2011 season has just began, and I can quite clearly recall the media being certain that this team would manage to win 100 games, the World Series and cure cancer. It should be a lot of fun to watch…

…Unless they start to suck again…

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The biggest question at second base heading into the 2011 season is: What will fantasy owners get from Phillies second baseman Chase Utley?

When healthy and at his best, Utley is elite. He has posted career highs in the standard five rotisserie categories, as follows: .332-131-33-105-23.

The problem is the health, or lack thereof, of Utley’s knee, which will likely land him on the disabled list to start the season. From a fantasy perspective, the bigger worry is that improvement in his knee seems to be moving at a snail’s pace. How soon will he be back? Will the injury linger and affect his performance when he’s back on the field?

Here are our top 15 fantasy second basemen for 2011:

1. Robinson Cano, Yankees: With the exception of stolen bases, Cano puts up elite stats across the board at a relatively weak position. Cano, who set career highs in home runs (29) and runs batted in (109) in 2010, has the second-most hits in all of baseball over the past two seasons.

2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: In addition to hitting over .300 for his career, Pedroia gives fantasy owners the potential for a 15-20 season. Despite missing half of last year, Pedroia ranks 10th in the majors in runs scored (286) from 2008 to 2010.

3. Dan Uggla, Braves: At a position where power hitters are less common, Uggla has been a model of consistency when it comes to power. In each of the past four seasons, Uggla has hit 31-33 home runs and has driven in 90-plus runs including a career-high 105 last season. But will you get his career-low .243 (2009) or career-high .287 (2010) batting average? Although he’s a career .354 hitter in his new home ballpark (Turner Field), the answer likely falls somewhere in between that range.

4. Ian Kinsler, Rangers: The biggest knock on Kinsler is playing time (123.6 games per season over past five years). If healthy, Kinsler has the potential to put up elite numbers. For example, when he played a career-high 144 games (2009), Kinsler hit 31 homers and stole 31 bases.

5. Brandon Phillips, Reds: For the first time in four seasons, Phillips failed to have a 20-20 season. In 2010, he finished with 18 home runs and 16 stolen bases. The majority of Phillips’ at-bats in 2010 came at one of the top two spots of the lineup after mostly batting cleanup in 2009. The effect? His runs batted in dropped from 98 in 2009 to a five-year low of 59 in 2010.

6. Chase Utley, Phillies: Two seasons removed from a 30-20 season, Utley will most likely begin the 2011 season on the disabled list after missing a total of 47 games last year. If he were healthy, Utley would be second on this list.

7. Rickie Weeks, Brewers: Speaking of health, Weeks played an average of 95 games per season from 2005 through 2009 before playing a career-high 160 games last year. Naturally, he set career-highs in runs scored (112), hits (175), home runs (29) and runs batted in (83) in 2010. The only way he approaches those numbers again is if he can stay healthy for two seasons in a row. Before last year, he hadn’t done that for one season in a row.

8. Martin Prado, Braves: Prado, who played mostly second base and some third base last year, is moving to left field for the Braves and soon will be eligible at three fantasy positions. In a career-high 140 games last season, Prado hit .307 and 15 home runs with 100 runs scored.

9. Gordon Beckham, White Sox: After hitting 14 homers with 63 runs batted in over 103 games in his rookie season, Beckham seemed poised for a breakout season last year. The eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft got off to an incredibly slow start in 2010, but he picked up the pace as he hit .310 after the All-Star break. Beckham, who will bat second for the White Sox this season, is a guy I’ve targeted in most of my drafts this year.

10. Ben Zobrist, Rays: Like Prado, Zobrist has multi-position eligibility as a second baseman and outfielder (and first baseman in Yahoo! leagues). After a breakout season in 2009 (.297-91-27-91-17), Zobrist really struggled down the stretch last season. After the All-Star break, Zobrist hit only .177 and hit .200 or lower per month from July to October. On a positive note, Zobrist stole a career-high 24 bases in 2010 and will likely have even more base-stealing opportunities as the team’s leadoff hitter.

11. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays: Not only did Hill have the lowest BABIP (.196) of his career, it was the lowest in all of baseball. Even with the horrible BABIP and batting average (.205), Hill still managed to hit 26 home runs in 2010.

12. Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks: In his first season with the Diamondbacks, Johnson set career highs in runs (93), hits (166), home runs (26), runs batted in (71) and stolen bases (13) in 2010. Johnson hit .311 with 16 of his 26 home runs at Chase Field last year.

13. Howie Kendrick, Angels: The direction of his batting averages over the past four seasons isn’t what you’d like to see: .322 (2007), .306 (2008), .291 (2009) and .279 (2010). That said, he set career highs in several counting statistics: runs scored (67), runs batted in (75), stolen bases (14) and tied his career high in home runs (ten).

14. Chone Figgins, Mariners: Since 2004, Figgins has stolen 30-plus bases every season. In five of the past six seasons, he has stolen 40-plus bases. Figgins is having a good spring (.349 average and four steals in 16 games).

15. Brian Roberts, Orioles: When healthy, Roberts has provided fantasy owners with lots of runs and stolen bases and a decent batting average. Before missing 100-plus games in 2010, Roberts stole 30-plus bases for four consecutive seasons although he went from 50 (2007) to 40 (2008) to 30 (2009).

Feel free to send fantasy baseball questions to me via Twitter at @EDSBaseball or post them in our fantasy baseball forum.

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When it comes to his lineup, Boston Red Sox Manager Terry Francona has a lot of difficult decisions to make. He was handed some of the best puzzle pieces around and was told to “Tetris” them together to the best of his ability.

Francona better invest in those extra big pencil erasers that you used to buy in elementary school. You know, the ones that fit onto the end of the writing utensil over the small eraser that’s already attached to the pencil. I think Tito will be going through quite a few of those.

Not only will he spend this Spring Training figuring out the Red Sox best lineup, but he must also figure out secondary lineups for certain pitchers (lefties or righties) and certain ballparks. In addition he will need to run scenarios in his head to see what he would switch around if, say Jacoby Ellsbury gets in a slump or Youkilis were to become injured. What would his back-up lineups look like?

What if they would need to call some players up? Who would be the most likely minor leaguer to make the trip to Fenway and where would they best be suited in this batting order? There is a lot on Tito’s plate right now, but I don’t think he would want it any other way.

It’s my job to figure out the best way for Francona to set the 2011 Boston Red Sox starting lineup and your job to tell me where I went wrong or right (I’ll always take positive reinforcement) in the comment section.

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Robinson Cano posted an excellent 2010 campaign in which he was in the top three of four out of the five offensive categories, including first overall in runs batted in and batting average. 

Although Dan Uggla is fourth on our list, he has been an incredibly consistent hitter over the past four years, becoming the first second baseman in MLB history to hit 30 home runs in four straight seasons.

Look for Uggla to continue his solid play as he will be surrounded with talented hitters as the newest member of the Atlanta Braves.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka is an excellent sleeper candidate for 2011. He joined the Twins in December after playing seven years with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Pacific League.

Nishioka is an excellent hitter, and could prove to be a nice late-round selection in both mixed and AL-only formats.

Visit www.kramericasports.com for complete player rankings, news and advice.

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As the title suggests, there’s rampant optimism among Red Sox fans after this winter’s acquisitions. The club traded for Adrian Gonzalez, a highly-prized first baseman whom the Boston brain trust has coveted for years. That grab was followed by the signing of Carl Crawford, the former Tampa left fielder who was the top free agent available this offseason.

The team then made some other changes, bringing in Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler to shore up an ailing bullpen, moving Kevin Youkilis back to third base after Adrian Beltre signed with Texas, and inking a diverse supporting cast of role players.

Adding two big bats to an already productive lineup got fans excited and competitors scrambling to devise ways to combat an offense that could be historically great. It’s true that these Sox need to prove themselves on the field before we can crown them division champs (or better), but the enthusiasm is justified.

Let’s quantify just how good this offense might be.

In doing so, it’s important to remember that offensive production doesn’t necessarily equate to wins. You could have the best lineup in history and still struggle if adequate pitching isn’t in place. But this year’s Sox have an improved bullpen and a serviceable rotation. In fact, if John Lackey and Josh Beckett can rebound from last year’s poor numbers, the starting five might be among the better rotations in baseball.

So if we take it as a given that the pitching can hang in there and keep the team in games, how good might the offense be, and what might that mean for the win column?

To figure it out, I took a look at the franchise’s historical data, specifically team OPS. OPS, which is on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, is one of the better metrics at providing a snapshot of how good a player or team is (or was) at the plate.

Going all the way back to 1901, the franchise has a correlation of 0.92 between team OPS and runs scored. A value of 1.00 would have been perfectly positive, indicating that higher OPS always equates more runs scored, so a value of 0.92 is very strong. In simple terms, it’s been statistically true that the better the team does in one of those categories, the better they do in the other.

This doesn’t mean that an increase in OPS causes an increase in runs (or the other way around), but it doesn’t mean that two are connected.  So if we want to figure out how the 2011 offense might produce, we can draw some reasonable conclusions based on the OPS numbers its likely to put up.

Taking a look at the recent and career stats for each player likely to make a significant contribution, I came up with some ballpark expectations of what we might see.  

These are crude predictions; I can’t really estimate what effect the team chemistry might have, or what advantages the better players might enjoy as a result of having more big bats in the lineup. It’s also hard to determine how adjusting to Fenway will impact the newcomers. And there will almost certainly be a handful of other guys playing in a handful of games whose numbers will also factor in.

But on the whole, these are pretty defensible.

I also made some assumptions about playing time, guessing that Lowrie and Scutaro will share time at short, that Cameron and Kalish will rotate in the outfield taking some time away from Drew and Ellsbury, and that Ortiz will have some days off periodically.  In short, I applied percentages to make these 13 guys add up to nine full-time players.

The result is an estimated team OPS of .836.

So what does that mean?

These calculations assume that everyone does more or less what he’s been doing recently. At that “average” pace, the team’s OPS of .836 would be the third best in Red Sox history.

In 2003, the Sox posted an OPS of .851 while scoring 961 runs, and back in 1950 they finished with .848.  The 1950 also featured a team record 1,027 runs.

Are you starting to see what all the excitement is about?

If doing the expected could net that kind of output, what might happen if even one guy breaks out? What might happen if Big Papi repeats his .899 from last year? The 2011 season is, after all, a contract year for him. What if Gonzalez proves that Petco Park and the weak-hitting Padres were holding back and breaks the 1.000 mark? Or if Youk improves? Or if Lowrie plays well enough in the field to keep Scoots on the bench?

Just a two percent increase from these estimates would be a new all-time mark for the 110-year-old club.

All kinds of good things can happen that would make this team even better than I’m suggesting, and that, as Bostonians might say, is a wicked good thought. 1,000-plus runs is within reach, and if a few things break the team’s way, we could very well witness the best offense in Red Sox history.

And that would almost certainly lead to a playoff berth, a deep postseason run, and possibly more.

So fire up the DVR. Take some extra time off work. And plan on staying up for the West Coast games. Because it’s not too hard to imagine that 2011 might just be a record-breaking year.

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When the Red Sox traded one of their all-time best players, Nomar Garciaparra, they entered a state of turmoil with regard to the shortstop position.

The Red Sox acquired Orlando Cabrera in 2004, followed quickly by Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. A combination of Lugo, Jed Lowrie, Alex Cora, Nick Green and Alex Gonzalez were used between 2007 and 2009.

Finally, the Red Sox signed Marco Scutaro, who started for the Red Sox in 2010. All in all, nine Red Sox started at least 50 games for the Red Sox since 2004.

Entering 2011, the Red Sox have two main options at shortstop. They can opt to continue starting Marco Scutaro, who was mediocre in 2010; or move on to Jed Lowrie, whose three stints on the disabled list since 2009 have limited his opportunities.

The Red Sox do have Jose Iglesias waiting in the minor leagues. Iglesias was ranked the 42nd best prospect in the league earlier this winter by Major League Baseball. However, he does not appear to be ready to move up to the majors, at least as a starter. It appears that 2012 is the most likely debut time for Iglesias.

Many have debated on whether to start Lowrie or Scutaro in 2011. Keep in mind that a combination of the two is certainly possible, due to Lowrie’s extreme split statistics. To compare the two, I will compare the two in each aspect of the game: ability to score runs, ability to drive runs in, and fielding. Let us begin with each player’s ability to score runs. 

Ability to Score Runs:

Marco Scutaro: Scutaro is not a particularly great on-base hitter. He has a career on-base percentage of just .336. In 2009, his on-base percentage was very respectable, reaching .379, though that appears to be somewhat of a fluke when compared to his other seasons.

Scutaro also has a poor slugging percentage; in his career he has slugged just .385, and .388 in 2010. The reason this relates to his ability to score runs is because it shows his inability to get in scoring position. He has mediocre at best speed to make matters worse. The 2009 campaign was the only season Scutaro stole more than seven bases, and he reverted back to his norm in 2010 by stealing just five bases on nine attempts.

All in all, Scutaro is not strong in this category, which is not a good sign for his 2011 prospects as the Red Sox have a sufficient amount of power hitters, they simply need players to get on base and in scoring position.

Jed Lowrie: While Lowrie does not have phenomenal major league statistics, that is likely due to his injuries and lack of playing time. In 2010 though, Lowrie did post a .381 on-base percentage in 171 at-bats, which is very encouraging.  

In the minors, Lowrie has demonstrated above average on-base potential. His last full season was 2007, during which his on-base percentage reached .393.

In 2008, his on-base percentage in the minors was .359, which is still respectable. Injuries limited Lowrie to just 114 minor league at-bats and 239 major league at-bats, so Lowrie is a bit of a wild card entering 2011. For that reason, he is a player to watch during spring training.

With regards to Lowrie’s ability to reach scoring position, he does have an advantage over Scutaro. In his major league career (499 at-bats), Lowrie has a .425 slugging percentage. That number is not phenomenal, though it trumps Scutaro’s .385 slugging percentage by a lot.

In his minor league career, Lowrie’s slugging percentage has fluctuated between .374 and .503 in seasons with 200+ at-bats. Lowrie is not known for stealing bases; he is two for three in 499 career major league at-bats. 

If Lowrie had continued his pace in 2010 for the same number of at-bats as Scutaro, he would have scored 114 runs to Scutaro’s 92. In conclusion, Lowrie gets the edge in ability to get into scoring position and reach home plate.

Ability to Drive Runs In:

Marco Scutaro: Scutaro has never been known as a power hitter, mostly due to the fact that he has never been a power hitter. In 2009, he hit a career high 12 home runs, followed by a second best of his career 11 home runs in 2010. For a shortstop, these totals are very mediocre.

Scutaro’s career ISO (Isolated Power) is .118. For comparison’s sake, Derek Jeter has a career .139 ISO and Dustin Pedroia has a career .156 ISO. Clearly, Scutaro lacks in this category.

Scutaro, like most MLB players, is much better with runners in scoring position. He had a .297 batting average in these situations with 45 RBI in 128 at-bats. These stats are not head-turning by any standard, though they show Scutaro will not be a liability when he has opportunities to drive in runs. 

Again, Scutaro is nothing to be ecstatic about in this category.

Jed Lowrie: Despite hitting nine home runs in just 171 at-bats in 2010, Lowrie is not truly a power hitter. In the minors, he hit double digit home runs in just one season, though his at-bats were very limited just about every year. Lowrie has 13 to 18 home run potential, though it is likely that he will fall short of that range given 500 at-bats in 2011. 

However, Lowrie’s ISO has been much higher than that of Scutaro. In his 499 major league at-bats, his ISO has been .172, though that is heavily influenced by his surprising 2010 power which can not be expected in 2011.

In the minors, Lowrie’s ISO has varied between the low .110s to the low .200s. He has the potential to be a relatively strong run producer among shortstops, though he is not a guarantee, especially coming off of an injury.

Scutaro is the safer choice, though Lowrie has the potential to be a bigger threat.

Defensive Prowess:

Marco Scutaro: Among qualified shortstops in 2010, Scutaro ranked 14th out of 21 in UZR with a -2.9 showing. He fared no better in terms of fielding percentage, as he ranked 17th among qualified shortstops with a poor .965 fielding percentage. Scutaro has never been an elite defender, and if his age gives him problems in 2011, he may become a liability for the Red Sox.

Jed Lowrie: Lowrie does not have a sufficient amount of major league statistics to have a sense of where he stands as a fielder relative to other major leagues. However, he has been touted in this regard.

In 2008, when Lowrie was just 24, Francona said about Lowrie playing third and shortstop, “We’re talking about a kid making his debut in the major leagues and he’s going back and forth between third and short. And he’s really handled it quite well. He’s done it not only in different games, but in the middle of games.”

Based on his little major league experience, it appears that Lowrie will develop into an above average fielder.

The Verdict:

If I had to choose one of the two shortstops to start all 162 games in 2011, I would likely choose Scutaro due to his consistency. However, I am not restricted to this, and truthfully the best option is a platoon based on the opposing pitchers.

In his career, Lowrie has been dominant against right-handed pitching and miserable against lefties. Here are his career splits:

Versus lefties (170 at-bats): .324 batting average/30 runs/7 home runs/36 RBI/1 stolen base

Versus righties (324 at-bats): .216 batting average/40 runs/6 home runs/45 RBI/1 stolen base

Clearly, he should be the starter against opposing left-handed pitchers. On the other hand, he should sit every game against righties.

Entering the 2011 season, the best plan for the Red Sox is for Scutaro to be the main starter, with Lowrie playing the majority of the games against left-handed pitchers, and also pinch-hitting versus lefties. This way, the two will complement each other’s skill sets and lower their injury risk by reducing their number of games played. 

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The bigger the better, right?

Wrong.

Baseball has always been a game where any talented individual could pick up a bat or glove and show off his skills – despite his size.

Bigger men generally have an advantage in the Major Leagues.  They can throw harder, run faster, and hit more powerful.  They are unique physical specimen, and people marvel at their strength.

Take Prince Fielder, for example.  People are awestruck not only by his size, but his tremendous amount of power.  He can hit a baseball just as far as any in the league, and probably farther.  His size definitely contributes to why he’s a good ball player.

But size really doesn’t matter.  Just look at the careers of these three men who have been gracing the diamond for the past several years, despite their lack of size.

David Eckstein is currently listed at 5’7″ and 175 pounds.  I’ve never stood next to the guy, but I have a feeling that those numbers are pretty generous.  Eckstein has been a thorn in the sides of pitchers ever since he came up in 2001, but it’s not because he can hit the long ball.

It’s because he’s a ball player.

Eckstein has just 35 home runs in his career (if Albert Pujols had that in a single season he would consider it a down year), and has never hit more than 26 doubles in a season.  What makes him so special then?

Here’s your answer: the guy never strikes out and is great at doing the little things in the game.

He’s struck out just 418 times in his career (Mark Reynolds would get that in two seasons), and can be counted on in any situation to lay down a bunt or make a tough defensive catch.

Despite not having a very strong arm, he releases the ball quickly and almost always gets the out.

An All-Star in 2005 and 2006, Eckstein also won the World Series MVP Award in 2006 as a member of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Big award for such a little guy.

Next, we’ll look at the 5’9”, 175 pound Brian Roberts. 

Roberts has been a constant on the Orioles since 2003, and owns a career .283/.355/.419 slash line.  He has proved that he can hit over his career.

He led the league in doubles in 2004 and 2009, hitting 50 and 56, respectively.  His best hitting season came in 2005 when he hit 18 home runs with 73 RBI’s and hit an above average .314.

Despite the nice productivity at the plate, its Roberts’ speed and hustle that makes him such a huge asset to the Orioles.  He stole a league leading 50 bases in 2007 and has 268 in his career.  Add in the fact that he’s only been caught 66 times, and you’ve got yourself a reliable base stealer.

Roberts sports a very respectable .987 fielding percentage, and has never made more than 11 errors in a full season (he made 16 errors in 63 games in 2001). 

He has scored over 90 runs in his career five times, and he was an All-Star in 2005 and 2007. 

Despite the great numbers, Roberts may not be the best small guy in the game today.

The Red Sox’ 5’9”, 180 pounds Dustin Pedroia really packs a punch despite his smaller frame.  His career slash line is .305/.369/.460, and has 54 home runs in his four full seasons in the league.

He led the league in runs in 2008 and 2009, with 118 and 115, respectively.  He also led the league in hits in 2008 with 213 and doubles with 54.

Pedroia is difficult to strike out, he’s never had more than 52 strikeouts in a season, and has more walks in his career (215) than strikeouts (184). 

The infielder is also a superb defender, making only 24 errors over his five year career.  His Gold Glove Award in 2008 recognized his defensive skill.

He’s won more awards than just that Gold Glove.  He was an All-Star in 2008, 2009, and 2010, he was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2007, the AL MVP in 2008, and the winner of the AL Silver Slugger Award for second basemen in 2008.

The man can flat out play, even though he’s a little on the small side.

Baseball really is a game for everyone, and anybody can succeed with a little bit of talent.  Eckstein, Roberts, and Pedroia have clearly been able to harness that talent and compete with the likes of big men Prince Fielder, Pablo Sandoval, and Adam Dunn for spots on Major League rosters.

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Spring is almost here. Okay, not really. A good portion of the country is currently covered in snow. But it is just around the corner. And with spring comes the baseball fan’s favorite thing to hear after a long, cold, baseball-less winter: Pitchers and Catchers report.

The truck full of equipment pulled out of Boston on its way to Florida yesterday. It reads, “First Stop Fort Myers, Next Stop The Series.” With those expectations in mind, let’s look at the 2011 team’s chances of reaching that goal.

We’ll go by position numbers, which means we start with No. 1 at pitcher and add a “10” for the DH position.

1. Pitcher
   • Here’s how the rotation should look like come Opening Day:
     1. Jon Lester (19-9, 3.25 ERA, 225 Ks)
        • By far the Red Sox most consistent starter, he pitched 208 innings in 32 games in 2010, and was a legitimate candidate for the Cy Young. Barring injury, this success should continue and he is the absolute ace of this staff.
        • 2011 prediction: 23-6, 2.75 ERA, 250 Ks and the AL Cy Young 

        

     2. Clay Buchholz (17-7, 2.33 ERA, 120 Ks)
        • Last season he continued the pattern of improvement he’s shown since he started getting serious playing time in the majors, look for that trend to continue in 2011.
        • 2011 prediction: 19-7, 2.33 ERA, 220 Ks
     3. Josh Beckett (6-6, 5.78 ERA, 116 Ks)
        • Beckett had a terrible year last year. He spent a good period of time on the DL and had an ERA over five for the second time in his career. Good news for Red Sox fans, the first time was in 2006 and Beckett turned in a 2007 that was arguably his best season ever.
        • 2011 Prediction: 19-8, 3.50 ERA, 215 Ks
     4. John Lackey (14-11, 4.40 ERA, 156 Ks)
        • I’m going to chalk last season’s performance up to being in a hyper-competitive division for the first time in his career. He’s always hovered around 14 wins but the last time he lost 11 games, he went 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA the next season. If he manages another 14 wins next season and cuts the losses down a little, he’ll be the perfect fourth starter for the Red Sox.  
        • 2011 prediction: 16-7, 3.45 ERA, 240 Ks
     5. Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-6, 4.69 ERA, 133 Ks)
        • Dice-K really hasn’t had a good season since 2008 when he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Every other year he’s been over four with his ERA. Good news is he’s the fifth starter, so the team isn’t leaning on him to win 15+ games this season. He has won an average of 44 percent of his games since joining the Red Sox, and if he can preform just above average and win half his games, no one would complain.
        • 2011 Prediction: 11-11, 4.40 ERA, 145 Ks
     6. Bullpen:
     •  
       • Last season the bullpen was terrible. They finished the season with a 4.24 ERA, and a record of 19-23. Papelbon had an okay year, but not his normal dominance, and the core of relievers was disappointing in general. Look for veterans like Okajima, Ramon Ramirez to bounce back from dismal seasons, Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard to continue to grow, and the additions of Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler will help the ‘pen rebound.
       • 2011 Prediction: Papelbon returns to his more dominant form (though his 2010 season wasn’t as dismal as some of the other relievers) and the ‘pen will once again be serviceable (AKA, above .500)
2. Catcher
   • This year should be Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s year to shine. If he can stay healthy and get his bat going, he’ll be an excellent offensive catcher and under the tutelage of Jason Varitek, should be a whiz at handling the pitching staff. And if he doesn’t, Jason Varitek is more than just your average back-up catcher. I think Salty will really start to come into his own and his batting average will go above the Mendoza line.
   • Jason Varitek will start the season as the back-up catcher, but still the Captain. Don’t discount how important this is especially since there’s a new pitching coach this year. He may only bat .230 and he may not be able to throw anyone out at second, but he’s still important. Since Terry Francona took over the team in 2004, they have only missed the playoffs twice: 2006 and 2010. Both years Varitek spent time on the DL. And he’s caught a league record 4 no-hitters. Dice-K’s almost no-hitter last year against the Phillies? Victor Martinez played first base and Jason Varitek was behind the plate. That is not a coincidence.
3. First
   • Adrian Gonzalez is the prize the Red Sox have been trying to get for years. They had to give up a few prospects to get him, but the farm is deep, and the Red Sox are hoping their initial investment will pay off huge. And it should. Adrian Gonzales has been a fantastic hitter, averaging 32 homers and 100 RBIs since joining the Padres in 2006. Imagine what this guy could do in Fenway park, which has ranked 7th since 2006 in runs per game as opposed to Petco Park, which ranked 29th in the same period.
   • And if Adrian gets a day off, it’s not a big deal to shift Kevin Youkilis back over to first and stick Jed Lowrie at third.
   • 2011 Prediction: Adrian will be Going-Going-Gonzo! Look for an increase in home runs and RBIs around May/June. It will take him a few weeks to really get adjusted to playing in the AL East. Projected stats: 40 HR, 135 RBI, .348 batting average.
4. Second
   • Second base was an issue in 2010 because Dustin Pedroia was hurt. He’s the little spark plug of the Red Sox, the angry, hyper-competitive, boastful little team leader. He gives 100 percent every game, no matter what. And as long as he can bounce back from foot surgery in 2011, there’s no reason to think he’ll be anything other than the person he was before a bizarre foul ball broke his foot. He’s going to do anything he can to help his team win. Remember last year, him taking grounders on his knees? I think Pedroia is in for a great season. And if he starts off slow, Jed Lowrie can always back him up.
   • 2011 Prediction: another All-Star season, starting off slow but finishing with .320 batting average, 20 HR, 65 RBIs and plenty of runs scored.
5. Third
   • Kevin Youkilis left the Red Sox in August with a bizarre hand injury. He was healed by October, but the Sox were done by then, so I don’t think his injury is going to play a big part in 2011. I think we are really going to see Youkilis’ power come out in 2011. And we already know he’s fantastic at third, and if he needs a day off, Jed Lowrie can step in (do we see a running theme here? Lowrie is going to be busy even if he’s not starting).
   • 2011 Prediction: 30 HR, .308 batting average, and 95 RBI.
6. Short
   • Shortstop is the only position this season where there’s really any controversy. Marco Scutaro is coming into camp as the Red Sox shortstop and barring injuries or a truly dismal Spring Training, he should remain there. But he’s got Jed Lowrie riding his tail, because if he can’t do it, Jed can, and then Scutaro will be the back-up for when any of the rest of the infield needs a day off. Not a bad problem to have, really.
   • 2011 Prediction: Marco Scutaro, recovered from the nagging injuries of 2010, will hit .285 with 15 homers and 60 RBIs.
7. Left
   • 2011 starts with another new face in left field, and it’s a much safer place now that Adrian Beltre isn’t at third to break any more left fielder’s ribs. Carl Crawford is certainly an upgrade from the Hermida-Nava-Reddick-whoever-is-healthy 2010 version of left field. Between him in left and Jacoby Ellsbury in center, the Red Sox might get to 100 stolen bases in 2011, isn’t that a wild idea? Plus we don’t have to worry about trying to pick him off, a huge relief for the catchers. Crawford will also enjoy being supported by the Fenway Faithful instead of booed, and join the legendary ranks of Red Sox left fielders. It’s not everyday you get to stand in the same spot as Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, and Jim Rice, and play their same position.
   • 2011 Prediction: 15 HR, 90 RBI, 55 stolen bases, and hits .302.
8. Center
   • Jacoby Ellsbury returns to the field after a very disappointing 2010 season where he played only 18 games. His backup was also hurt and played in only 48 games. Hopefully both Jacoby Ellsbury and backup outfielder Mike Cameron will be back 100 percent in 2011. If they are, Ellsbury should continue to develop as a hitter, maybe even hit for power, and Cameron will continue to be the steady, quality backup the Red Sox need for the long season. Ellsbury is young so rebounding from his rib injury shouldn’t be a problem, and he should be back to stealing bases in April.
   • 2011 Prediction: hits .307 with 15 HR and 50 RBI with 75 stolen bases
9. Right
   • Old Faithful J.D. Drew maintains his spot in right field. J.D. is always good for a few bouts of vertigo, a hammy, and a back injury during the season but he is also one of the best right fielders fielding percentage wise in the league and when he gets hot his bat is a beast. This might also be his last season, and I think Drew is one of those guys who will want to go out with a ring and a bang. And there’s a slew of minor league guys and Mike Cameron to take care of the times Drew is hurt or needs rest.
   • 2011 prediction: .250-.285 (depending on how many hot streaks he has and how long they last), 27 HR, 65 RBI. Nice, solid season.
10. DH
    • When the Red Sox signed Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, Big Papi was celebrating. For the last two years the offense has been on his shoulders, and when he struggled in April it was all anyone seemed to talk about. Now the talk will be on the new players, especially since Papi will likely be batting 5th or 6th, all the pressure will be off. I love Papi and I think he has another two or three decent years left in him and without the pressure his bat should be fierce.
    • 2011 Prediction: Papi will hit .289 with 35 HR and 116 RBI.

I look for the 2011 batting order to shape out like this:

Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Drew, Saltalamacchia, Scutaro.

As for the Red Sox lofty World Series goals? They are extremely viable. Two of the scarier pitchers in baseball, Cliff Lee and Doc Halladay, are with the Phillies in the National League.

Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia is recovering from knee surgery and lost 30 pounds over the offseason, that will certainly help his knees but changing your body that much is going to affect your pitching. Pettitte retired, and their rotation after Sabathia isn’t exactly frightening. Plus, the Yankees are getting a little older.

They are still a good lineup but age will eventually start to catch up with them. New York will definitely be competition, but if the Boston lineup holds up and the pitching staff rebounds a little, the Red Sox can take them.

The Rays are another matter. They are reloading this year, dumping most of their expensive players in trades or with free-agency, but it would be foolish to overlook them. Joe Madden has a talent for getting quite a bit out of young, inexperienced players. I look for the Rays, Jays and Orioles to put up more of a fight this year than most people think.

I am superstitious and don’t like to make predictions of the World Series in February, so I’m just going to end by saying the Red Sox have a good chance of getting there and winning. They have the talent, the rotation, and Epstein has plugged some of the holes in the bullpen to keep them from losing games late. It’s certainly not a pipe dream, and with a little bit of luck, it could be a reality.

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