Kuzul

Most fantasy owners were expecting Elvis Andrus to erupt in 2010, entrenching himself as one of the elite shortstops in the game. For a longtime it looked like that would be the case, hitting .300 up until June 12. Things have taken a turn since then.

July was an awful month, hitting .216 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 9 R and 4 SB. You know you’re not going to get a ton of HR or RBI, but the other numbers are problematic. He’s hitting leadoff for the high-powered Rangers offense and he scored just nine times.

Before we get into the good and the bad, first let’s look at his overall numbers:

399 At Bats
.273 Batting Average (109 Hits)
0 Home Runs
27 RBI
63 Runs
27 Stolen Bases
.360 On Base Percentage
.313 Slugging Percentage
.330 Batting Average on Balls in Play

He has done a good job at the plate, with a 17.3 percent strikeout rate and 10.9 percent walk rate. The walks are up from both last season (7.4 percent) and his minor league career (8.6 percent). At 21-years old (he turns 22 at the end of August), it’s a great sign to see him continue his maturation at the plate.

Now, you hope it can continue in other aspects of his game, specifically his ability on the base paths. While the 27 stolen bases are nice, he has been caught 12 times, tied for third most in the league. Clearly, that will cause a manager to tighten the reigns on him a bit, giving him fewer opportunities.

Gaining efficiency would go a long way.

As for the falloff in average, slumps are going to happen. A lot of it was poor luck, posting a BABIP of .256 in July. You can argue that his overall luck is about on par, and to be honest, it is. Still, with his ability to put the ball in play, you would expect good things to happen.  Sooner or later the luck will turn back the other way, in turn raising the average back towards .300.

With a better average will come more runs scored as well. In that Rangers lineup, all you have to do is get on base in the leadoff spot and you should score runs by the bushel full.

The power has been nonexistent this season. It’s not just a lack of home run power, as he has just 12 doubles and two triples. He is still young and is still growing, so in time I still think he’ll develop the ability to hit around 10 HR.

He has a solid line drive rate of 21.1 percent, which is in the Top 30 in the league. The extra base hits will come. Obviously, his 59.1 percent ground ball rate isn’t conducive to home runs, but with his speed you can’t be too upset right now. Let him use the wheels and beat it out time and time again.

The power isn’t going to be this year, but in years to come. The other numbers should bounce back sooner rather then later. While the numbers may not be quite what you had envisioned, by year’s end he will be entrenched as one of the top shortstops on draft day 2011, thanks to his average, stolen bases and runs scored. Don’t give up due to a cold streak, because a corresponding hot streak is coming.

What are your thoughts on Andrus? Will he be an elite shortstop? Why or why not?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

Make sure to check out our recent Scouting Reports:

• Brett Cecil
• Wade Davis
• David DeJesus
• Jason Donald
• John Ely
• Brett Gardner
• Tom Gorzelanny
• John Jaso
• Kila Ka’aihue
• Mat Latos
• Brad Lincoln
• Jonathan Lucroy
• James McDonald
• Kris Medlen
• Brett Myers
• Jonathan Niese
• Andrew Oliver
• Manny Parra
• Jake Peavy
• Buster Posey
• Sean Rodriguez
• Mike Stanton
• Andres Torres
• Travis Wood

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Cliff Lee, Lance Berkman , Jorge Cantu, Austin Kearns , Bengie Molina, Kerry Wood, Cristian Guzman. All players that are now wearing either a Texas Rangers Jersey or Yankee pinstripes now, as the smell of October baseball grows stronger with each passing day.

The perennial American League juggernaut Yankees was active as usual this year at the trade deadline, acquiring first baseman Lance Berkman , outfielder Austin Kearns , and reliever Kerry Wood to shore up some holes in the lineup, bullpen, and bench.

However, it was the Rangers who made it clear to everyone in the Majors that they are for real this year.

They started by snatching Cliff Lee from the jaws of the Yankees early on in July, then they got a solid catcher who can handle the rotation well, and they picked up a pair of bench pieces with Jorge Cantu and Cristian Guzman.

Adding those players to a team that is in total command of first place in the AL West, brings them into the conversation of the top three teams in the league, joining the AL East powers.

The playoffs are still two months away and anything can happen. But if things were to stay the way they are right now, then the Yankees would meet up with the AL Central leading White Sox , while the Wild Card Rays and AL West leading Rangers would lock horns.

I think that the Yankees would probably beat the White Sox, and that the Rangers would over power the Rays, thus settng up an ALCS between New York and Texas, East meets West.

With power pitching and power hitting on both teams, this would be one of the most intriguing postseason matchups in years, not to mention a re-match from the late 90’s playoff series between the Rangers and Yanks.

A series between these two teams would feature another heavyweight pitching bout between CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter and Elvis Andrus the top two shortstops in the league, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira playing against their former team, and so many more story lines to follow.

There are no guarentees that either team will make it to the ALCS, but it wouldn’t be for lack of effort, and you have to admit that it would be an interesting playoff matchup to watch.

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On Thursday afternoon, the Texas Rangers made another move geared toward their run for the postseason, trading for Marlins’ 1B/3B Jorge Cantu.

So far this season, Cantu is batting .262 with 10 home runs and 54 runs batted in. Those are pretty good numbers for someone who will likely end up batting seventh.

With second baseman Ian Kinsler recently going on the 15-day DL, Cantu will likely see a few games at second base. On other nights, he will be splitting time at first base with the recently promoted Mitch Moreland.

When Ian Kinsler comes back, imagine a lineup that looks like this:

1. SS Elvis Andrus

2. 3B Michael Young

3. 2B Ian Kinsler

4. DH Vladimir Guerrero

5. LF Josh Hamilton

6. RF Nelson Cruz

7. 1B Jorge Cantu

8. C Bengie Molina

9. CF Julio Borbon

You have loads of speed, with Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon being the most obvious ones. Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler are all excellent base runners and have great speed for their sizes.

Michael Young and Vladimir Guerrero are no slouches either. I have seen numerous times were Guerrero was very aggressive and took an extra base on a base hit.

Molina is quite a base clogger, but he isn’t being asked to do much with the bat, focusing rather on his defensive responsibilities.

Everyone knows how potent the top five hitters in the Rangers order can be.

Elvis Andrus gets on base often and is always a threat to run.

Michael Young is Michael Young. One of the most consistent hitters in the game.

Ian Kinsler is seventh in the American League in OBP.

Vladimir Guerrero is having an MVP caliber year with a .307 BA, 20 HR, and 80 RBI. The only reason he won’t win MVP is his own teammate.

Josh Hamilton is threatening for the American League triple crown.

Nelson Cruz has had two different stints on the disabled list, but he still has 14 HR and 57 RBI, and has a .330 batting average.

Cantu would slot in very nicely in the seventh spot in the batting order.

Cantu’s 54 RBI were good for second most on the Marlins, but on the Rangers, he would only be fifth.

Adding Cantu’s RBI total would give the Rangers five players in the top 29 in the RBI category, more than the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays, three teams regarded as main challengers for the Rangers in the American League.

Though he isn’t having a great year batting average wise, he is a career .276 hitter and should see plenty of RBI opportunities batting behind Guerrero, Hamilton, and Cruz.

Cantu also has hit well in Arlington, with a .350 batting average in nine games, including six doubles.

Finishing the rest of the season playing in Arlington will do wonders for his numbers.

The lineup the Rangers can put out every day has an excellent blend of power and speed.

They have to be considered the best lineup in baseball.

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They did it! The Blackhawks finally got their Stanley Cup in one of the more bizarre endings you’ll see in a championship game.

My only regret is that they didn’t win it at home. The city was wild enough on a Wednesday during an away game, imagine what clinching on a Friday at home would have been. Oh well, guess we’ll have to wait for the Cubs to win the World Series before we get another Chicago Fire.

Oh yea, and there were some baseball games this week.

63%

Combined stolen base success rate for Elvis Andrus and Julio Borbon , which has led to Ron Washington’s decision to limit their attempts until they can improve their technique. It’s a huge blow to each of their values, though Borbon didn’t have much anyway.

I’m especially concerned about Andrus because not only has his batting average dipped in recent weeks, he stopped drawing walks. His BB:K rate has been an atrocious 5:14 so far in June, lowering his OBP to .377, down from his high of .431 just a month ago.

Let’s hope it’s simply a case of a young player needing to make an adjustment and not a trend that will continue.

.226

Batting average over the past 25 games for Ian Stewart , another young player poised for a breakout season who has fallen off the wagon in recent weeks. How close this is to his 2009 average (.228) is unsettling to say the least, but you knew you were getting somewhat of a batting average liability with him.

What’s more alarming is while the batting average is regressing to the norm, his power numbers have remained stagnant, with only one home run over that 25 game span. Looking at the numbers the culprit seems to be a severely decreased fly ball rate, which has turned into a bloated line drive rate (25%).

While this may sound great, it clearly hasn’t helped him recently. Plus, this number is unsustainable, so hopefully the line drives will turn back into fly balls and not grounders. I’m benching him until further notice.

Nine

Innings pitched by Zack Greinke in his last start, finally securing that ever elusive second win. We can all breathe a little easier now, the Zack Attack is back. He struck out 12 batters and walked zero, an unbelievable performance despite two solo jacks allowed to Joey Votto . Reportedly the performance was a result of an “adjustment,” always music to a fantasy owner’s ears and bodes well for future production.

Nevertheless, his struggles with keeping the ball in the park will keep him from repeating last year’s Cy Young numbers, but I’d still bet on a 3.3 ERA and over 200 K’s at the end of the season.

Don’t ask questions, just click here and read the rest

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Okay so I’m a little late with Part II of my season-long look into the lost art of the stolen base. You can read part I here as a template for what future articles in this series will look like (if you are a new reader of mine). For those that aren’t, yes it’s the same format.

In a league where I’d like to see a 100-steal man, that is no longer possible as 80 has become the new 100 in terms of unattainable records. No one’s stolen even that many since Vince Coleman’s 81 in 1988 so why not make that the new standard, seeing how it likely won’t be reached anyway.

At the current pace, this season unfortunately will hold true to form.

As of June 1 here were the top five league leaders:

1. Rajai Davis (pictured) Oakland A’s.

Stole 12 bases in 14 attempts (85.7 percent) for the month of May. His season total to date is 22 as he stole 10 bases in April, and he’s currently on pace for 69 for the season. When you lead the league in steals, you get your picture in the article.

Last month in was Juan Pierre on the Sox page, this month maybe Athletics fans will come to know the series I’ve come to write.

April: 10/10

May: 12/14

June: ???

With any player you’d obviously like to see him increase his base steals each month as the season goes on. So far, Davis is not disappointing in that regard. In fact, if history is any indication Davis should heat up (no pun intended), this summer as he stole 15 bases last August and 11 in September! In a league without a Coleman this era, it appears he’s the best we got.

2. Juan Pierre, Chicago White Sox

Stole 10 bases in 11 attempts in May. His season total is 22 and he’s on pace for 67 for the season.

April: 9/12

May: 10/11

June: ????

Like Davis, Pierre’s numbers are increasing. However, they are misleading as the league leader after April only stole one base after May 15-exactly half the month.

This means that he stole nine bases in the team’s first 13 games which would have (in theory) put him on pace to steal a very eerie Carl Crawford-esque 26 steals in May, similar to how Crawford stole 21 last May.

When you look at it in that perspective, the always frustrating Pierre simply faded away which he has a history of being a nice player, but despite the speed and ability simply desires to be “good enough” when “great” could be a real possibility. Thus, the story of his career.

3. Brett Gardener, New York Yankees

My pick for “first to fade away” did not disappoint in May only swiping eight bases in 11 attempts, giving him 19 for the season on pace for 57.

As the Yankees continue to improve in the standings, expect him to fade away as getting on base and scoring runs become more important to the team that simply moving up 90 feet.

April: 10/11

May: 8/11

June: ????

Gardner’s numbers are all ready going down. Expect more of the same as he’s deemed “too valuable” and ” versatile” to risk injury.

4. Michael Bourn, Houston Astros

Stole eight bases in 12 attempts in May, giving him 18 for the season and putting him on pace for 54.

April: 9/11

May: 8/12

June: ????

Bourn’s numbers are startlingly going down for a player that was steadily improving last summer in this fashion. Not surprisingly his league ranking dropped from third to fourth. For a team going nowhere, why isn’t he running more with nothing to lose?

5. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

Finally a wild card to the discussion! The super-youthful (21) Andrus is easily the most promising of the stolen base fraternity (to date) having stole 11 bases in 16 attempts in May.

April: 7/10

May: 11/16

June: ????

Unlike Gardner his numbers are going up, and outside Davis, no one stole more bases in May than Andrus. Only concern is he may have a bit of Nyger Morgan-like carelessness on the base paths already getting caught eight times on the season in only 26 attempts (69 percent).

In a league that prides itself on an 80 percent target rate, 69 percent just won’t cut it. Still, you have to like his aggressiveness and the fact that his team (29-25) is still in first place, (albeit in a very weak division) despite his struggles.

This is a classic case of having to take the bad with the good and Andrus is only going to get better. In fact, last season I predicted he would soon be a league leader in my final article in the 2009 season-long look and had him pegged for 50.

Well, there you have it. Check back around July 1 for the latest installment into the lost art of the stolen base with updates and projections and what it all means.

Statistics and information from ESPN.com and Wikipedia directly contributed to the content in this article.

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Imagine if fans cast their All Star votes with the intention of actually picking the most deserving players.

How would things be different?

The All Star game has become a popularity contest. It’s not about which player is having the best season, but instead which player has the best known name.

That’s why I offer you, my 2010 April/May American League All Star starters free of bias, and based on what should matter–who is having the best season.

Elvis Andrus, this one’s for you!

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Whitaker and Trammell. Morgan and Concepcion. Tinker and Evers. Maz and Groat.

So often, the 2B and SS are linked together on great teams. Why should they not be? What part of baseball more encompasses teamwork than the ability to turn a double play?

While top defensive pairings are not exactly a dime a dozen, the majors definitely have their fair share of talent at the pivot. Let’s take a closer look at the best.

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