Kuzul

A year ago, Ervin Santana was a reclamation project who was basically up for grabs. Taking him on meant fixing a pitcher who had allowed 39 homers while pitching to a 5.16 ERA in 2012.

Because funny things have a way of happening in baseball, Santana now finds himself looking for a $100 million contract.

That’s what Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com reported late last week, noting that Santana is looking for at least that much money spread out over five years. He had been projected as a $15 million-per-year pitcher by both MLBTradeRumors.com and CBSSports.com, but he’s looking for at least $20 million per year after turning his career around with a 3.24 ERA in a 211-inning campaign for the Kansas City Royals.

One reads into this as Santana and his people aiming high. That’s what players and their people do in free agency, after all, as it doesn’t hurt to do so. Either somebody will pay what’s being demanded, or somebody will come close enough.

Here’s hoping whichever club signs Santana gets him because it did the latter. He’s a good pitcher, but he’s not worth $20 million per year now, and it’s highly unlikely he will be later.

It’s to the first part of that statement that we shall go, um, first. We know that Santana’s not worth $20 million per year now because the numbers say so, darn it.

As far as FanGraphs‘ WAR-based value system is concerned, Santana was worth only $14.9 million in 2013. He’s been worth $20 million only once before: back in his excellent 2008 season, in which he posted a 3.49 ERA and compiled a 6.0 fWAR.

He’s being shopped as a pitcher worth that much now because his agents are crafty fellows. Via Ken Rosenthal, here are a few highlights of the plan they’ve put together for how to sell Santana:

• Santana’s last three seasons compare favorably to Zack Greinke‘s last three seasons before free agency.
• By Game Score, Santana had as many “strong or dominant starts” in 2013 as Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish and Jordan Zimmermann. Both Scherzer and Darvish had him beat in 60-plus Game Score starts in 2013, but whatever. It’s cool.
• Over the last three years, Santana has rated well in terms of his ability to keep runners off the bases, his durability and in pitching deep into games.
• His 2012 season, in which he gave up 39 home runs, is an anomaly. He’s homer-prone but not that homer-prone.
• His arm and shoulder are just fine, thank you very much.

That’s pretty much it. Santana’s agents are basically trying to sell him as a top-of-the-rotation guy who’s good for both innings and dominance, which tells us that his agents get what agents are supposed to do.

But even if Santana’s agents do have their stuff in order, the really smart teams out there will ignore all of it and ask themselves what they would stand to get from Santana over the life of a multi-year deal, as well as whether they’re willing to pay $100 million for whatever that may be.

As there is with just about every pitcher, there are good things and bad things about Santana. What’s troubling about him, however, is that the bad things are more discouraging than the good things are encouraging.

But let’s start with the good things Santana has to offer, namely control and an elite innings-eating ability.

Santana’s never been one to hurt himself with walks, but he was particularly good about not doing so in 2013. Per FanGraphs, his 5.9 BB% was his lowest mark since 2008, and it put him in the top 30 among qualified starting pitchers.

He earned it. Santana threw about as many pitches in the strike zone in 2013 as he had in 2012 and 2011, but only four starters threw first-pitch strikes more often, and he improved on his career strike percentage of 63 by throwing 65 percent of his pitches for strikes.

Put simply: Santana was one of the top control artists in MLB in 2013. That’s something worth being optimistic about. Pitchers who can throw strikes tend to do better than pitchers who can’t, after all, and good control is something that age has a hard time hurting.

Santana’s innings-eating ability needs less of an introduction. He’s topped 200 innings five times in his nine years, and is 11th among starters in innings pitched both since 2005 and since 2010.

But while an ability to eat innings is indeed one of Santana’s primary selling points, it’s also an area where the cracks in the notion of paying him $100 million begin to show.

A five-year deal would cover Santana’s age 31-35 seasons. By the time he gets to the end of it, it’s doubtful that he’s still going to be a 200-inning pitcher. In the last 10 years, only 11 34-year-olds have logged 200 innings in a season. Only 10 35-year-olds have done it.

For Santana, simple age could be what does him in. But based on what’s going on with his strikeout habit, there’s also a very real chance that he’ll cease to be a top innings-eater because opponents will begin knocking him out earlier in games more frequently.

While Santana’s 2013 season was a turnaround campaign in many respects, it wasn’t as far as his ability to strike batters out is concerned. He posted a K% of 18.7, which is right there with his career K% of 18.6 and the starter average of 18.9 percent, according to FanGraphs.

That there’s a trend:

In 2008, Santana was a much better strikeout artist than the average starting pitcher. In the years since, his strikeout habit has been more or less on par with that of the average starting pitcher. 

As for Santana’s chances of reversing this trend, well, they’re not very good.

It’s not as if Santana is lacking in stuff now. His stuff is already more overpowering and more capable of missing bats than the average starter’s stuff. If we just keep it simple and compare his fastball velocity and swinging-strike percentage in 2013 to the league average:

Santana already throws harder than the average starter, and he got more whiffs than the average starter in 2013. Despite this, he couldn’t find a way to rack up more strikeouts than the average starter.

This is distressing because it’s not like Santana is going to throw harder or get better at missing bats as he ages. His velocity peaked when he was 25 in 2008. He’ll be 31 years old in a few weeks, and research done by Bill Petti of FanGraphs shows that a starter’s velocity becomes more and more in danger of going “pluh” once he gets into his 30s.

Not so coincidentally, swinging-strike and strikeout percentages have a tendency to decrease as well. There’s more than a fair chance that Santana will live up to the pattern as his stuff becomes less overpowering.

If Santana is to have any hope of aging well, he’s going to have to become a more complex pitcher, one with a deep arsenal of pitches that he can use to finesse hitters to death. And from where he’s standing now, it’s totally up in the air whether he’s going to be able to make that kind of transformation.

What we need is a comparison. I figure we can go ahead and make like Santana’s agents and compare him to Zack Greinke on the eve of his free agency. Considering data from Brooks Baseball, there’s no ignoring the fact that the Santana of 2013 is a fundamentally different pitcher than the Greinke of 2012:

Santana worked in a sinker more often this past season, which helped him post a career-high 46.2 ground-ball percentage. It’s not a fluke that he was able to get over his bad case of gopheritis from 2012, and that sinker should prove useful at keeping another bad bout at bat as he gets older.

But because a sinker is just another fastball, Santana really didn’t alter his pitching style in 2013 all that much. With his hard stuff and slider still accounting for over 90 percent of his pitches, Santana carried on as one of the league’s preeminent fastball-slider pitchers.

That’s not how Greinke was making his living in his final season before free agency. He threw five of his pitches more than 10 percent of the time, making him the rare five-pitch pitcher. And in 2013, the only change he made was using his changeup more than 10 percent of the time rather than his cutter. He used it to hold lefty batters to a .226 average and an .095 ISO.

Now, Santana did use his changeup more often against lefty batters in 2013…but barely, and not very effectively at that.

Santana’s changeup accounted for over 12 percent of his pitches to lefty batters in 2013, but they hit .289 against it with a .154 ISO. He deserves props for experimenting with it, but the fact is it’s not ready to be a go-to pitch against lefty batters.

That’s a red flag for potential business partners. If Santana can’t develop a good changeup, then clubs are looking at a righty pitcher with bad platoon splits—lefty batters have hit him to the tune of a .773 OPS throughout his career, compared to .695 for righty batters—that could only get worse if age does a number on his fastball and slider. Indeed, righty batters will also be more capable of hitting these two pitches if they become flatter with age.

To be sure, Santana doesn’t necessarily need a deep arsenal of pitches in order to be a productive pitcher over the life of a five-year contract. If he can maintain his good command and at least a respectable ability to eat innings, he’ll have enough to be productive.

A merely “productive” pitcher, however, is not the same as a $20 million-per-year pitcher.

Look at it this way: As good as Santana was in 2013, he wasn’t good enough to be worth $20 million. And if he can’t be that good now while he still has good stuff, command and an ability to eat innings, he’s certainly not going to be that good when the good stuff is gone and he only has command and (maybe) an ability to eat innings. Rising salaries will lower standards for big contracts, sure, but there’s a limit to how low these standards can go.

Santana is being shopped as a $100 million pitcher based on his track record. I’m not convinced his track record truly deems him to be a $100 million pitcher. I am pretty well convinced that he’s highly unlikely to be a $100 million pitcher in the future.

In other words, my wagging finger is ready for the event of a $100 million contract for Ervin Ramon Santana.

Note: Stats (and middle names) courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The San Francisco Giants finished the 2013 season with a disappointing record of 76-86, 16 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.

The work to rebuild the roster has already begun for the Giants and GM Brian Sabean.

First, the Giants signed outfielder Hunter Pence to a five-year, $90 million contract. Pence played in every game for the Giants and was their top overall offensive weapon this past season.

Pence led the Giants with 27 home runs, 99 RBI and 22 steals. He also hit .283, with an OBP of .339 and OPS of .822. Pence’s all-out hustle made him a fan favorite, and he made no secret about his desire to remain a Giant.

Following the Pence signing, Sabean locked in starting pitcher Tim Lincecum with a two-year deal for $35 million. Although the Giants may have overpaid Lincecum somewhat, the value he brings to the team is more than just on the field.

Lincecum finished his second consecutive down year, although 2013 was definitely an improvement over 2012, when he finished with an ERA of 5.18 and WHIP of 1.468. 

This past season, Lincecum tossed 197.2 innings, allowing 184 hits and 76 walks, while striking out 193. He is learning how to get outs without the same velocity he had earlier in his career.

At the age of 29, Sabean and the Giants are counting on Lincecum having at least two more solid years in a Giants uniform.

With Pence and Lincecum in the fold, there are five critical areas that remain for the Giants. How the Giants address these needs will be a major factor in their success in 2014.

Let’s take a definitive look at the five remaining moves the Giants need to make to give them the best chance of recapturing the glory they found in their world championship seasons of 2010 and 2012.

All stats are courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

All contract information is courtesy of baseballprospectus.com.

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In years past we’ve seen plenty of pitchers sign big-time free-agent deals only to fizzle with their new teams. Names like Barry Zito and Mike Hampton come to mind when thinking of starters who didn’t live up their albatross contracts, and teams will be trying to avoid similar situations this offseason.

At 12:01 a.m ET on Tuesday, free agents will officially be able to sign with new teams, per MLB.com, setting the stage for the baseball hot stove that’s sure to heat up heading into the winter meetings on Dec. 9-12.

There is a notable crop of veteran starters on the market this winter, but teams have to be weary when handing out the big dollars for starters who could be on the downturn. Let’s take a look at some of the free-agent starting pitchers teams must avoid signing before a big contract evolves into a big problem.

Masahiro Tanaka

The 25-year-old Japanese righty might not technically be an MLB free agent yet, but he’s expected to be posted for bid by his club the Ratuken Eagles this offseason. Masahiro Tanaka‘s record of 30 consecutive unbeaten starts was snapped in Game 6 of the Japan Series against the Yomiuri Giants on Saturday, forcing Game 7 in the Japanese equivalent of the World Series.

Still, it does little to blemish the stellar regular season Tanaka had, as he went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA in 212 innings this year. Given his age and accomplishments so far, it’s widely believed that Ratuken will receive a bid higher than the $51.7 million the Texas Rangers posted for the rights to negotiate with Yu Darvish in 2011. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports even speculated the posting bid could be between $75 and $100 million, with an ensuing contract pushing the total upwards of $125 million.

There’s no doubting Tanaka‘s dominance this year, but comparable situations have happened in recent years with mixed results. When thinking of high-priced, marquee pitchers leaving Japan for MLB, Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka serve as examples with different outcomes.

While Darvish has established himself as one of baseball’s elite pitchers during his two seasons in Texas, Matsuzaka has flamed out after two solid years with the Boston Red Sox in 2007-08.

So where does that leave Tanaka? No one will know until next spring, and that doesn’t seem like a smart $125 million bet.

Sure, he reportedly owns one of the best split-finger fastballs on Earth right now, but it seems like too big of a gamble for an unproven asset, no matter how talented he is. Teams would be better served to get consistent veterans like Bartolo Colon or Hiroki Kuroda for the short term while exploring other less risky avenues for the long term.

Ubaldo Jimenez

Ubaldo Jimenez picked a good time to recapture his form as an elite pitcher for the Cleveland Indians, as he dominated after the All-Star break just in time to boost his stock for free agency. The righty, who turns 30 in January, posted a 6-5 record, 1.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 84 innings across 13 second-half starts.

As a result, Jimenez posted season-long numbers that included a 13-9 record and a 3.30 ERA. During his second-half run, Jimenez conjured up flashbacks of his dominant self during his days in Colorado, like when he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA in 2010.

But Jimenez has been plagued by inconsistency in the three seasons since, and perhaps it has something to do with the drop of velocity on his fastball. According to FanGraphs.com, Jimenez’s fastball averaged at about 96 miles per hour during his career year in 2010, but it dipped below 92 in 2013.

He’s not getting any younger and won’t be adding any more speed onto that fastball any time soon. It was encouraging to see Jimenez put together a nice stretch run this past season, but he hasn’t shown the ability to be consistent since losing his best stuff.

His marks of a 9-17 record with a 5.40 ERA in 2012, and even his subpar start to 2013, should be kept in mind at the negotiating table this winter. Jimenez will likely earn a nice payday to be a team’s No. 2 or 3 starter, but his inconsistency and troubles adjusting to life without his blazing fastball make him trouble down the line.

Ervin Santana

Much like Jimenez, Santana had a well-timed season for success in 2013. Santana turns 31 next month and has been hit-or-miss throughout his entire career.

But this past season he went 9-10 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings pitched, serving as a key member of the Kansas City Royals pitching staff that ranked first in the American League with a 3.45 team ERA.

If Santana’s track record is any indicator, however, he isn’t a smart bet to duplicate his success in 2014. Only once in his nine-year career has he been able to string together two straight seasons with sub-4.00 ERAs—in 2010 (3.92) and 2011 (3.38). In that same span, he’s posted three seasons with ERAs over 5.00.

Santana certainly has value in today’s game as an innings-eater, having topped the 210-inning mark in three out of the past four seasons, but his up-and-down career trend makes him one to stay away from in 2014. He’s still at the point of his career to command a healthy multiyear deal, but I suspect it will become a headache by the end of the agreement.

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The offseason ahead will potentially be one of immense surprise for the Philadelphia Phillies, for a few reasons. First and foremost, the oft-mentioned television contract situation will near its climax, as the Phillies are expected to sign their new, multi-billion dollar TV deal within the next month, according to CBS Philly.

In addition, the Phillies are close to hiring a much-needed statistician, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. While that alone is unlikely to alter the dynamic of the Phillies front office, it should influence future contracts and trades, at least to some extent.

Third, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. always has some tricks up his sleeve. Just how he plans on utilizing them this offseason remains to be seen, and whether or not they make sense will depend just on how he restructures his philosophy of signing and acquiring players, if at all.

In the following slides, five realistic moves independent of one another will be presented. Again, this slideshow does not and will not suggest that all five moves be made; rather, any of the five moves could come to fruition this winter and at least should be considered.

Here are five realistic moves the Phillies should consider in the coming offseason.

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With less than a month to go in the regular season, free agents-to-be are running out of time to leave a lasting impression on potential suitors. Some of the bigger names, including Robinson Cano, have remained near the top of the free-agent market with steady performance while several others have risen and fallen from month-to-month. 

Players who have disappointed up to this point can still boost their stock by having a big month in September. On the flip side, those who have been terrific for most of the season could see their value fall substantially with a poor finish. 

Here are 10 players who have gone in all different directions throughout the season, but find themselves in a similar position with a few weeks to go. Their value could rise or fall significantly based on their end-of-season performance.

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The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim must have been frustrated with the way that this season turned out. However, it is shaping up to be another busy winter in the City of Angels.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports is reporting that the Angels are looking at potential trades for both Dan Haren and Ervin Santana.

On one hand, it definitely makes sense to try to trade these two athletes. In 2012, Haren only managed to go 12-13 with a 4.33 ERA while Santana was a touch below that at 9-13 with a 5.16 ERA. If the Angels want to try to climb back on top of the division next season, they will obviously need more production out of their starting rotation than these two men demonstrated last year.

However, could that production come out of Haren and Santana themselves? Haren has been a reliable starting pitcher throughout his entire career and has won at least 10 games the past nine seasons. Last season was arguably the worst of his career, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he is automatically done.

Similarly, Santana is still in his prime and he is only two years removed from a 17 win season. In fact, even though he finished 11-12 in 2011, he posted a career-best 3.38 ERA during that campaign. Yes, 2012 was definitely a bump in the road, but I don’t think that he has totally gone off that path yet.

As you can probably tell, I am not entirely sold on trading either of these athletes simply because of their history of success. Many players have suffered from bad seasons, and many players have also rebounded from bad seasons. Obviously, the Angels need to decide if they are willing to take the risk associated with keeping a player who might not bounce back, but given such long track records of success, these two men do not necessarily seem like unreasonable risks.

Nevertheless, since it appears that the Angels are willing to trade either of these two men at the right price, they need to make sure that they at least get a fair return. These two men have a lot to offer any team in baseball if they are able to return to form, so they should command at least a decent return.

Whether you think I know everything or nothing about Major League Baseball, you should follow me on Twitter or become a fan on Facebook and keep in touch. I love hearing what you all have to say!

 
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Ervin Santana has probably pitched his last game as a member of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. He has had an enigmatic career in Southern California, going back and forth between brilliance and horrible starts.

The Royals should take a chance with him.

Santana arrived in the majors with the 2005 Angels. He won 12 games, but pitched to a high 4.65 ERA and had a mediocre 91 ERA+. But in the deciding Game 5 of the Division Series against the Yankees, Santana relieved an injured Bartolo Colon and went 5.1 innings for the win.

Over his eight seasons with the Halos he had some terrific seasons and some terrible seasons.

He finished sixth in the Cy Young voting in 2008. Then in 2009 he saw his ERA balloon to 5.03 and he lost his spot in the playoff rotation. But that same year, he threw a complete game shutout to clinch the division.

He improved in 2010 but had a down year the next, despite throwing a no-hitter on July 27, 2011.

In 2012, his ERA sored to 5.16 and he let up more home runs than anyone in the league. But he also could reach back and throw a one-hitter against Arizona on June 16.

The Angels are almost certain to not pick up his $13 million option, and he will be a free agent. He probably will not make top dollar but rather would be wanting to prove himself worthy of another big deal.

The Royals could probably get him for an affordable one-year deal. As the Royals wait for the Jake Odorizzis and Kyle Zimmers of the world to develop, Santana, who will be 30 next season, could be the ideal stopgap.

Pitching coach Dave Eiland would be given the job of harnessing his obviously tremendous amount of talent into one solid year. The Royals would get a good starter and help develop the rest of the staff and bullpen. And if Kansas City does not contend, they would have a good trade chip down the stretch.

And Santana could turn one terrific well timed season, into a lucrative multi-year deal for a team desperate for pitching.

It could be the ideal situation for the Royals to buy low and Santana to eventually sell high.

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According to Tim Kurkijan from ESPN.com, the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels are in talks about a possible trade that would send the starting pitcher out west for center fielder Peter Bourjos and catcher Hank Conger in return. He also added that there is a possibility that Angels pitcher Ervin Santana could be included as well.

The proposed deal would offer the Rays some pieces that they need to continue to be competitive in 2012 and beyond. It also provides a potential replacement in Bourjos for the anticipated departure of BJ Upton in the offseason.

Here is a look at the Angels players rumored to be involved in the deal being discussed and how they could fit into the Rays’ plans.

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Players want to have their names in the record books—but not for records like this. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have had very few things to celebrate this season, and on Friday night they set a record that would have been better left unbroken.

Ervin Santana, who is now 0-6 this season, took the loss once again for the Angels against the Toronto Blue Jays, despite only allowing three runs and striking out 10 batters.

Santana is off to a terrible start this season, but what exactly goes into an 0-6 start?

Factors that result in records being broken.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau (via ESPN Stats and Information), the Angels have been shut out five straight times when Santana starts.

The Angels have not scored a run for Santana since April 8.

This is the first time in MLB history that a pitcher has received no run support in five straight outings, breaking the previous record of four straight outings held by 11 different pitchers.

Santana has not had very many good starts this season. He has lost every start this year, and only his last two starts have been stellar. His previous four had been dreadful. He allowed 10 home runs in his first four starts of the season.

The Angels, however, have enough firepower to overcome a few bad outings by their starter. They should be able to put some runs on the board and avoid setting such an embarrassing record.

The names in the batting order makes this record almost unbelievable.

It is inconceivable to think that the Angels could not score one run for Santana in almost a month’s worth of starts.

Santana might hold the record, but this is truly a team effort.

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Saturday night, the American League West separation between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels was just two games. Mike Scioscia’s club now controls its destiny and postseason potential.

Here are the five realistic reasons that the Angels will surpass the record of the Rangers to make the 2011 Playoffs.

The battle for the American League West Pennant will not be easily decided. The Rangers are stacked offensively and filled pitching gaps that make them a formidable team. Begin this slideshow to find out why the Angels are up to the Texas-sized challenge.

Begin Slideshow