Kuzul

The Tampa Bay Rays enter the 2011 season with lower expectations than the last few years, and for good reason. This past offseason saw the Rays lose some of their most valuable players.

While the losses of players like Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, Matt Garza and Carlos Pena will hurt, all is not lost for this team.

Here are eleven bold predictions, both good and bad, for the Tampa Bay Rays this season.

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Defense may not be the most entertaining part of a baseball game, but it is certainly important.

We tend to only recognize when players make outstanding defensive plays, and fans will always criticize players for making defensive mistakes.

The following slides will show you who is truly the best defensive team in baseball based on a number of factors.

The methodology is as follows: Teams were ranked from No. 1 to 30 based on statistics from the 2010 season. The lower the better.

The categories considered were UZR, stolen bases allowed, Total Zone (TZ) and Gold Gloves. One point was deducted for each Gold Glove winner and two were deducted for each Fielding Bible winner.

This difference is because the Fielding Bible award is based on more quantitative information.

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Although they won 96 games and the AL East in 2010, the Tampa Bay Rays have lost a number of players through their firesale this offseason.

This has given the spotlight of the division to the rival Yankees and Red Sox. First, Rays’ franchise player Carl Crawford became a free agent only to be swept up by the Red Sox. Then, their slugging defensive 1st baseman Carlos Pena went to Chicago’s southside. To add insult to injury, their All Star closer from 2010, Rafael Soriano, departed for their other division rival the New York Yankees.

Their top tier set-up man Grant Balfour became a free agent and signed with Oakland. They lost their other top tier set-up man Joaquin Benoit to the Tigers via free agency. They traded defensive shortstop Jason Bartlett to the Padres for two minor league pitchers. And finally, they traded their hot-headed ace in Matt Garza to the Cubs for seven minor-leaguers.

Given all of this, it’s understandable why the Rays may be overlooked by many in a division with no shortage of talent.

That’s not to say that the Rays are finished. Since the Rays lacked guys who could hit for average, General Manager Andrew Friedman has targeted two veteran Scott Boras clients in Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon.

Manny, 39, and Damon, 38, are both coming off down years. Manny is a future hall of famer with a flair for the dramatic. Both his bat and antics generate controversy. When all is said and done, he’s a productive major league hitter when he wants to be.

Traded away due to off-the-field antics, Manny will have plenty of opportunities to get revenge on the Red Sox. He is also known as a Yankee-killer and always brings his A-game against them. And Damon is a former Red Sox and Yankees player who will relish the opportunity to put his skills on display.

We should never forget the Rays’ best player and perhaps the top 3rd baseman in all of baseball, Evan Longoria. At just 26 years old, he should put up another monster season offensively and with the glove. Expect to see him hit for more power in 2011.

The voids left by the big-names that left will be filled by top prospects. A number of the names mentioned will probably be in the AL Rookie of the Year race. Desmond Jennings has been described as the next Carl Crawford due to his propensity to steal bases, hit for average and play good defense in the outfield. Although Matt Joyce may not qualify as a rookie due to his 77 appearances in 2010, he’s still shown he’s extremely talented.

Joyce can hit for power, play good defense in right field, and has good plate discipline. Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez are young, slick-fielding middle infielders who should impress in 2011.

While the 2011 Rays may have some nice offensive and defensive players, they are going to show their superiority with their pitching. David Price was a Cy Young award candidate in 2010, his first full season as a starter. Expect him to continue to improve.

Jeremy Hellickson impressed in his four major league starts in 2010. Some people, myself included, suggested that the Rays use him in the playoffs instead of James Shields. He is predicted by some to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. Wade Davis had an encouraging rookie season in 2010. I look forward to seeing his improvement as well. Jeff Niemann and James Shields are coming off down years and should probably be better in 2011.

A question with this team is their bullpen. Losing Balfour, Benoit and Soriano will definitely hurt. However, they acquired Joel Peralta, who showed a lot of promise with the Nationals in 2010. I predict he will emerge as their closer in spring training.

There are also two new names in their bullpen from Bartlett trade: Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos. They also picked up some low-risk, high-reward veterans in Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz. Their other bullpen guys are either from the farm system or were in the majors last season.

The Rays may not win their division, but I expect them to contend for a playoff spot in 2011.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The biggest off-season talk so far in the AL East has clearly been about the Red Sox big moves. Around the division, beyond Boston, the Yankees have made little improvement from last year, losing out on Cliff Lee, and signing Rafael Soriano, all while waiting on Andy Pettitte.

As of recent, the Yankees have been most active, in signing veteran pitchers Mark Prior, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia, all to minor league deals. According to sources, Pettitte has a $12M offer waiting for him, if he decides to return for another year.

The Rays have now countered their mostly young roster, by adding veterans Johnny Damon, and Manny Ramirez. Damon last played for Detroit in 2010, and Ramirez split the season between Los Angeles and Chicago. They both played in Boston, and as most remember, were apart of the historic 2004 team.

Clearly, this piece is not to discuss the moves of the AL East, but to preview the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays, from player projections, to possible impact rookies, and overall record and division finish.

To see my complete preview and projections for all the AL East teams, feel free to become a fan as they’ll all be written soon

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As good as he is, Evan Longoria is not single-handedly winning your fantasy baseball league for you. Why? Because most of the owners in your leagues are getting fairly off-setting numbers out of their first round picks.

However, the players discussed here could win you that championship, because while everyone is getting minimal value from their late-round picks, you could be getting early-round numbers.

This doesn’t mean you should reach for them in the rounds where their value might end up, but you should target them late, and enjoy the results. (All projected draft rounds are in a 12-team standard snake draft)

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Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

2010 saw Evan Longoria post the lowest home run total of his career (22), while his slugging percentage dropped for the third consecutive season. During the offseason, the guys who hit in front of (Carl Crawford) and behind (Carlos Pena) Longoria last season signed with the Red Sox and Cubs, respectively.

Looking forward to 2011, it’s any one’s guess as to who will fill the holes left in the Rays lineup. While these factors may scare off some fantasy managers, it’s important to understand how good Longoria has been in his first three seasons in the majors.

Despite missing 40 games in his 2008 rookie season while the Rays delayed his arbitration clock, the California native has posted career averages of 88 runs, 27 HRs, 101 RBI, 10 steals and a .297 batting average, placing him in elite company at the very thin third base position.

Despite the seemingly “down” year in 2010, Longoria has made significant strides in certain areas of his game over his first three seasons:

BB%

• 2008: 9.1%
• 2009: 10.7%
• 2010: 10.9%

K%

• 2008: 27.2%
• 2009 24.0%
• 2010: 21.6%

AVG

• 2008: .272
• 2009: .281
• 2010: .294 

When Longoria’s doubles (46 in 2010, tied for second most in the majors) start flying over the fence again, top-10 production will surely ensue. Entering his age 25 season, that time is likely now. Given his lack of protection in the lineup, Longoria is likely to see his walk rate increase for the fourth consecutive season. This will presumably lead to less RBI opportunities, dropping Longoria to No. 2 among our third base rankings.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez
• No. 3: Miguel Cabrera
• No. 4: Troy Tulowitzki
• No. 5: Adrian Gonzalez
• No. 6: David Wright

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook & Twitter

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

We all know that third base has quickly become one of the shallowest positions in baseball.  Outside of the top four options, there is a ton of risk involved. 

Yes, there are players with tremendous upside, but there are significant red flags hanging over them.  Let’s take a look at how I currently have the top 15 ranked (as well as top 12 for those in AL or NL-only formats, which can be found at the bottom of this post):

1. Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays
2. David Wright – New York Mets
3. Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals
4. Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees
5. Michael Young – Texas Rangers
6. Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays
7. Adrian Beltre – Texas Rangers
8. Pedro Alvarez – Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves
10. Aramis Ramirez – Chicago Cubs
11. Pablo Sandoval – San Francisco Giants
12. Mark Reynolds – Baltimore Orioles
13. Casey McGehee – Milwaukee Brewers
14. Placido Polanco – Philadelphia Phillies
15. Juan Uribe – Los Angeles Dodgers

Thoughts:

• Adrian Beltre’s move to Texas helps keep his projections high thanks to the friendly confines, but he is still a big-time risk given his history.  We’ve seen it from him before where he posts a big season in his walk year only to regress after being given a fat contract.  I know he’s coming off a year where he hit .321 with 28 HR, 102 RBI and 84 R, but there is a lot of risk involved.  The power could certainly hold up, but the only other time he approached the average was in 2004 (his last year with the Dodgers).  A fall is likely so proceed with caution.
• Speaking of Beltre, his move to Texas sends Michael Young into more of a utility/DH/potentially 1B role.  He should continue to see every day at bats, but it is fair to be slightly concerned at this point.  The Rangers were in on Jim Thome and if they ultimately add a DH type of offensive force, things will get really interesting.  I’m leaving him where he is for now, but he certainly has the potential to fall in these rankings as we get closer to the season.
• Kevin Youkilis adds depth to the position, but since he does not have eligibility at 3B yet he is not included on the rankings.  If he was included, he’d easily be a top 5 option.
• I know it was a wild prediction, but I recently discussed the idea of Ryan Zimmerman outperforming Evan Longoria in 2011 (click here to read).  While that’s not likely, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Zimmerman emerge as the No. 2 third baseman in baseball by year’s end.  Had he not missed time due to injury he likely would’ve posted his second consecutive 30/100/100 season in 2010 (he was at 25/85/85 in 525 AB).  With the potential to hit .300+, there is an awful lot to like.
• Placido Polanco is an extremely nice player, but he doesn’t bring power (his high over the past six seasons is 10 HR) and he doesn’t bring speed (in the past seven seasons his high is seven SB).  He’s going to hit for a solid average, but he’s no lock to be over .300 (.285 and .298 the past two years).  Sure, he could score some runs if he stays in the No. 2 slot of the Phillies lineup, but it just isn’t enough.  He’s a perfect example of a player who is more valuable to his actually team than to fantasy owners. 
• Does anyone really expect Jose Bautista to replicate his 54 HR outburst?  I would find the low-to-mid 30s as being much more of a realistic expectation.
• Can Pablo Sandoval rebound?  The stories are already coming out about him shedding weight and being in great shape.  Can we really believe it?  Until we see it on the field it’s impossible to put any stock into the comments.  Consider him a risky pick, but one that can offer a pretty attractive reward.

AL/NL Only Rankings:

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Whose too high?  Whose too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With most of the top free agents now signed and teams starting to take shape as we approach spring training, I thought I would share my pre-pre-season perspective on the relative strengths, (and weaknesses), of all 30 major league teams.

I have broken the article down into three installments, and will publish one of the segments each day this weekend. Part I (yesterday) covered the three teams I view as the weakest in baseball… Part II (today) covers the teams in the middle of the pack… Part III (tomorrow, MLK Day) will preview the 10 best teams in baseball.

Without further ado, here is how I see things:

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We should all be so lucky to make the league minimum. Before we go feeling sorry for the (relatively) underpaid workhorses of baseball, it helps to remember how much $400,000 is. That said, there are some players that represent the antithesis of the bloated big league albatross.

For the purposes of this article, I’m not considering first-year players. Many incredible players make a huge splash in their freshman campaigns. Their low pay in the first year is misleading, as just about everyone makes somewhere around $400k their first year. I wanted to focus on a starting nine that has put some work in and still doesn’t take home a heaping pile. Without further ado…

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Neftali Feliz is expected to be named the 2010 American League Rookie of the Year tomorrow, beating out Baltimore Orioles starter Brian Matusz and Detroit Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson.

The Texas Rangers’ electric closer set a rookie record by saving 40 games, and helped lead his team to their first ever World Series appearance. That’s quite a debut.

But where do his achievements rank among other past Rookies of the Year? Here’s a look back at the AL’s last 10 ROY award winners and their accomplishments in their rookie seasons.

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