Kuzul

The Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees play a four-game series this week in the Bronx. This series is pivotal in deciding which team will be the AL East champion and which team will fight the Boston Red Sox for the wild card. Winning the division is important for home field advantage since it is believed that they will meet in the ALCS.

Coming into the series the Yankees have a half-game lead on the Rays. Tampa Bay should be able to hold off the Yankees and win the division.

There are five factors that the Tampa Bay Rays have in their favor over the Yankees in the upcoming series and remainder of the season.

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As the 2010 season draws to a close, pennant races are taking shape for the final weeks, and the Wild Card picture is beginning to look more clear. In the case of the AL East, it’s quite clear that both teams will make the playoffs.

This does not mean that this race is of little importance. Quite the contrary, this Yankees-Rays showdown is shaping up to be one of the top September matchups. After the Sabathia-Price pitcher’s duel earlier this month, this four-game series is going to be hotly contested, with the winner likely winning the division and the loser being relegated to the Wild Card.

In this article I will discuss the hot and cold players on each team, possible game changers, and the pitching matchups before offering a prediction.

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Baseball is a game of stars, and when it comes to the best, some teams are represented by their athletes.

The fans of the MLB love their players, and the best of the best are the faces of their teams. From the Yankees to the Angels, all MLB teams have a player that represents them best.

Here is a look at the faces of each franchise, or in some cases, multiple faces.

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When the Tampa Bay Rays opened the 2008 major league season, third baseman Evan Longoria was playing for the Durham Bulls in the Triple A International League.

It was the minor leagues for the Rays first choice in the 2006 draft, and was the third overall pick. Many people, including myself, suggested the Rays were trying to save themselves some money by delaying Longoria’s “arbitration clock” by sending him to the minors.

Isn’t the idea to try and win games? Longoria was the Rays best opportunity at third base to help them win, but was mired in Triple A for financial reasons.

But being mired lasted all of seven games and 25 at bats, before Longoria was promoted to the majors. The Rays were going to let the clock start early on their prize after all.

But even the Rays startled everyone by signing Longoria the next day to a six year, $17.5 million contract through 2013 including three club options for 2014-2016. The Rays bought out all of Longoria’s arbitration years and his first three free agent years with club options.

Based upon Longoria’s performance, the team has made out very well. Even though they gambled on an unproven young talent and are going to save a bunch of money over the long haul.

This buying out of a players early “control” years is a growing trend which began in the early-to-mid 1990’s by General Manager John Hart when he was with the Cleveland Indians. He signed up youngsters Kenny Lofton, Sandy Alomar, Jr., Carlos Baerga, plus Joey and Albert Belle to multi-year deals WHILE they were really good…and really young. 

For example, Lofton has a 7.7 WAR* in 1994 (shortened season due to strike), the highest in baseball that season and his WAR was 7.3 in 1993. He made only $925K that year and $1.925 million in 1995. His salary would have been much higher had Lofton actually gone to arbitration in 1995.

*That is the first time I used the WAR stat in any article ever. While I am not needing to be rushed to the hospital, I am still in shock. It was needed for reference on how good Lofton was those seasons. Don’t expect it all the time.

Hart needed to do this to keep together what he projected his core would be for many years at reasonable prices than what these players would receive through arbitration and early free agency. As a smaller market team, Hart reasoned the Indians had a smaller window to win.

Signing up young players is a great tactic for these small market** teams to use.

**I love the term small-market. With all these billionaire owners, they can afford to spend their OWN PERSONAL money on players. I don’t mean to spend frivolously big on free agents like you are Omar Minaya, but to spend to keep the players your organization develops.

Why then are there small markets when these guys have their own money they can spend. Before he died, Carl Pohlad of the Minnesota Twins was the richest owner in baseball but did not spend money. Lucky the Twins re-signed Kirby Puckett when Carl was alive, but I am not so sure he would have signed Joe Mauer to that contract last off season.

Should other small-market teams use the same ideas?

Of course, they should. They have to in order to compete with the so-called big boys of Boston, New York, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia.

But these big teams do the same thing.

The Red Sox signed Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis to long term deals before even going to arbitration on Lester and Pedroia and after the first arbitration year for Youkilis. I fully expect them to extend Clay Buchholz after the 2011 season.

They want to see players perform for two or three seasons before they sign players longer term. This allows for any adjustment periods the league makes to the players after their rookie and sophomore seasons.

The Yankees also did that with Robinson Cano two seasons ago and even Derek Jeter, who was signed to a ten-year deal after his second arbitration year. Yankees would probably sign Phil Hughes to a multi-year deal, too, after 2011, buying out several arbitration years and maybe a free agent year or two.

Even the Philadelphia Phillies tied up their young guys Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard, who were tied up after their first arbitration years.

There is quite a bit of talk now about the MLB financial statements for several teams being made public. These statements put teams like Pittsburgh and Florida into bad light, and for once it was not about their on field records. They show that the teams have made tens of millions of dollars but have not put that much of that money into player salaries.

These teams need to start signing their young stars when they believe their young players are going to be well-above average for the long haul. This is tricky because if you jump too soon on a player, you could be left holding the bag at big dollars for very little in the way of results.

Similar to what Scott Kazmir and Nate McLouth have become.

But certain smaller-market teams have reaped the benefits of signing young talent early, like Milwaukee with Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo and Corey Hart, the Marlins with Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson; and the Mariners with Franklin Gutierrez and Felix Hernandez.

Other teams like the Braves with Brian McCann (and likely Jason Heyward soon), have done this.

The Pirates have a couple good, young talented ballplayers in Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen. Alvarez is signed through 2014 (including club options), but it would be good to spend some of that profit and also sign McCutchen after his first full season to a long-term commitment, saving long-term money.

The smaller-market teams need to decide who the players they want to keep. Not just “team” players who can be replaced cheaper through from their farm system, but players who already have been All-Stars.

And who they feel will continue to be All-Stars and league leaders, not league average.

McCutchen appears to be that type of player a team can take that risk.

Many other teams have major decisions to make.

Players like Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros, Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill of the A’s, and Jair Jurrjens of the Braves need to be looked at longer term at below future-market rates. 

But the biggest task might fall to the Cincinnati Reds have to decide if Joey Votto (yes, of course!), Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto need to be locked up soon. They all are coming up on their arbitration years.

This would be a great move for the first-place Reds to sign all three, who have plenty of young players in the fold who could keep the Reds at the top of the NL Central standing for many years to come. Similar to what their in-state brethren, the Cleveland Indians, did almost 20 years ago.   

Most of the big market teams seem to like to get their players just before or a year after their first year of arbitration. 

I feel it might be better for the smaller-market teams to take a bigger risk by signing top guys earlier, like Longoria in Tampa and Troy Tulowitzki (his college teammate) in Colorado. The Rockies would be wise to lock up Carlos Gonzalez to a “Longoria type” deal this off season and keep the young slugger locked up in Colorado through age 30.

It sure worked for the Rays.

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Evan Longoria is no longer considered a rising star.

Many now consider Longoria to be a baseball superstar and the face of the Tampa Bay Rays. In just under three seasons as a Major League third baseman, Longoria has a career .282 avg. with 78 home runs and 282 RBI, not to mention a Gold Glove.

He began his 2010 campaign with high numbers that have come to be expected from him, but he tailed off when the Rays went into their “June Swoon”. Longoria hit his 12th home run on June 15 against Atlanta and has only hit six since then. However, two of those six have come in the past week in what has been an offensive resurgence for Longoria.

Why has Evan gotten so hot lately? The return of first baseman Carlos Pena to the Rays’ lineup has certainly had an effect. In the seven games since Pena’s return on August 16, Longoria is hitting .392 with two home runs and 12 RBI, and has returned to the clutch form he has become famous for.

While his Gold Glove defense has been consistent all season, Longoria had been inconsistent at the plate. With Pena’s big bat behind him, pitchers now cannot focus solely on Longoria. BJ Upton has also had a mini revival at the plate since Carlos Pena’s return and the entire lineup seems to be clicking better.

All signs point to a fun fall for baseball fans in the Tampa Bay area, but when October is done and the champions are crowned, Carlos Pena will be a free agent. With Longoria and Upton both starting to get hot with Pena’s return, one has to wonder how Pena’s probable departure in 2011 will affect the Rays lineup.

There will be a lot of issues the Rays must face this offseason, including Pena, Crawford, and Soriano’s free agencies, the stadium debate, and the performance issues of hitting coach Derek Shelton. While the future of the franchise may be blurry, the 2010 season still promises hope.

On August 23, the Rays are 76-48, one game behind New York and 5.5 games ahead of Boston for the Wild Card. Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff predictor, PECOTA, gives the Rays a 95.6 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 47 percent chance of winning the division. If Longoria continues his recent upswing, look for the Rays to seriously challenge the Yankees for the American League East crown.

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Considering that it is August, post-season baseball is just two months away. With the playoffs looming, the way the standings will ultimately shake out could be determined relatively soon. 

Many of these determining factors come down to how teams can mesh, second half track records, and team health.

However, on each contending team, there are certain individuals that hold the key to contention for the remainder of the regular season. Heading into the second week of August, now is the time for the difference-makers to stand up and propel their team to meaningful wins.

Here are 15 game changing difference-makers on different contending teams that will help decide the fate of their respective clubs as the 2010 MLB season heads down to the wire.

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The Padres and Mets are now the only Major League Baseball teams that have never had a pitcher throw a no-hitter.

Matt Garza threw the first no-hitter in Tampa Bay Rays history as they beat the Detroit Tigers 5-0. Garza completed the fifth no-hitter in Major League Baseball this year.

You knew eventually the tide would turn for the Rays, who had been on the wrong side of phenomenal pitching outings this season.

Garza only allowed a second-inning walk out of the 27 batters he faced.

Ben Zobrist sealed the game, catching a routine fly ball to right field.

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The Major League Baseball All-Star Game will be held tonight in Los Angeles. That means the 162-game season has reached its half.  Let’s review the AL East team performances so far this year.

New York Yankees (56-32)

The defending World Champions have the best record in baseball for the first half of the season.  Their offensive lineup has been very consistent, generating hits and runs day-in and day-out.  Unlike last year, when they started the season slowly, Joe Girardi’s team has an impressive 20-11 record against teams in the division and has won 21 of 28 series.

Offense

The Yankees are doing very well offensively.  Second baseman Robinson Cano, being on top in almost every offensive category (.336 AVG, 115 H, 51 R, 68 RBI, .556 SLG), is surely a strong candidate for this year’s AL MVP.

Alex Rodriguez hit 14 home runs to bring his career total to 597, seventh-best all-time.  Nick Swisher is getting on base constantly and Brett Gardner can run, ranking fifth in the league with 25 steals.  Mark Teixeira, hitting .254, may not repeat his number last year (.292), but there are still a good two-and-a-half months of baseball for him to catch up.

Pitching

Starting pitchers Phil Hughes, C.C. Sabathia, and Andy Pettitte have been pitching extremely well, combining to win 34 victories for the Yankees so far, and they all have 10 wins or more.  Javier Vazquez (7-7, 4.45) had a terrible season debut, but has been improving gradually.  40-year-old closer Mariano Rivera (20 saves) seems rejuvenated this season.

Tampa Bay Rays (54-34)

The Rays started the year strong, but they have cooled down since mid-June.  However, through last Sunday, they are only two games behind the Yankees, which proves that they can still keep up with the Yankees to compete for the playoff spot.

Offense

The offensive power relies heavily on the middle of their lineup: LF Carl Crawford, 1B Carlos Pena, and 3B Evan Longoria.

Nine years into his career, Crawford is sixth in the AL in hits this season (106), first in runs scored (70), and second in steals (31).  Clean-up hitter Pena is eighth in home runs with 18 and walks tied for third with 51 walks.  With Evan Longoria, they combine to score 117 runs, almost 38 percent of the team total in first half of the year.

Pitching

All-Star starting pitcher David Price and Matt Garza lead the Rays pitching rotation. Price has an impressive 12-4 record with a 2.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  His fastball can reach 97 mph consistently.  He and Garza (10-5) are the only 10-game winners on the team. Third-best goes to James Shields (7-9).  Besides, no Rays starter has more than 10 losses (Wade Davies has nine).  Closer Rafael Soriano has done a good job with 33 saves and just one blown save.  He can also be seen in All-Star Game in Anaheim.

Boston Red Sox (51-37)

The Red Sox had a slow start from the beginning of Opening Day. People seemingly believed it would be a forgotten season for the team.  While they were talking mostly about the race between the Yankees and the Rays, Terry Francona’s team is back in the playoff race.

However, luck is not on their side.

The lineup is infected with a massive number of injuries.  These injuries took immediate effect, as the Sox were swept by the Rays last week.

Offense

David Ortiz is one of the reasons why the Sox were not successful at the beginning of the year. He only hit .143 and with one home run in the month of April.

He’s caught up now with 18 home runs (tied for eighth in the AL) and the Sox rank second in total home runs with 118.  3B Adrian Beltre and SS Marco Scutaro consistently reach base with 107 and 101 hits respectively.  The third-best goes to 1B Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedrioa (86 each).

The Red Sox have six players on the 15-day DL: Captain, C Jason Varitek (foot), C Victor Martinez (thumb), 2B Dustin Pedroia (foot), Mike Lowell (hip), and OFs Jeremy Hermida (rib) and Jacoby Ellsbury (rib).  Catcher Kevin Cash was acquired to fill in the empty catcher spot for now.  The organization should be worried offensively and defensively to start the second half.

Pitching

Boston has a team ERA of 4.34 (fifth-worst in the league) and walks 314 opposing batters (fourth-worst).

To contend in AL East, they need to post better numbers, especially from starting pitching.  Daisuke Matsuzaka has not been very consistent.  Besides knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (5.22), John Lackey has the worst ERA (4.78) on the team. His numbers seem to decline year by year.

Jon Lester (11-3) and injured Clay Buchholz (10-4) are the only 10-game winners.  Other injury casualties include SP Josh Beckett (lower back spasm) and reliever Manny Delcarmen (right forearm). 

Toronto Blue Jays (44-45)

Who would have thought that the Jays could lead the Major Leagues in home runs?  Out of Toronto’s 404 runs scored, 136 of them were caused by home runs—the best in baseball.  However, they will not be a real threat in AL East.  Their sub-.500 record is just not good enough to compete with the three big guns in the division.

Offense

Eight Blue Jays already have 10 home runs or more: 3B/RF Jose Bautista (24), CF Vernon Wells (19), SS Alex Gonzalez (17), C John Buck (13), 2B Aaron Hill (12), LF/DH Adam Lind (12), 1B Lyle Overbay (10), and 3B Edwin Encarnacion (10).

But the home run is the sole offensive category that is impressive.  The team only hits .240 collectively, fourth-worst in the majors, and only has an on-base percentage of .306.  They also have the third-worst batting average with runners in scoring position (.240).  These figures explain why the Jays are barely a .500 ball club.

Pitching

With the departure of the “Doc,” Roy Halladay, manager Cito Gaston cannot find a true ace.  Brett Cecil leads the team with eight wins, the most among starting pitchers.  Shaun Marcum (7-4) has the best starter ERA (3.44). He is currently injured (elbow inflammation), and will be back after the All-Star break. 

Baltimore Orioles (29-59)

No one would expect Orioles to escape out of the cellar.

Although mathematically possible, they still have 78 games to play to get out of the bottom of the division.  Chances are it will not happen.  Thirty games under .500 is sad.  The firing of manager Dave Tremblay in June was appropriate, but the organization has yet to find a long-term replacement to lead the team.

Offense

Losing star second baseman Brian Roberts at the beginning of the season to the 60-day DL (herniated disc in lower back) was crucial to Orioles’ failure.  The team seemed to lose direction from the start.  Its offense mainly comes from RF Nick Markakis, leader in team avg (.308), and CF Adam Jones who has 14 home runs (tied with 1B Ty Wigginton for team lead) and scored 44 runs (most on the team).

Pitching

Bad pitching will make you lose games.  Ask the Orioles if you don’t believe me.

No Oriole starting pitcher has more than five wins.  David Hernandez’s four victories is a team-high.  The ace, Kevin Millwood, is injured, and had horrible first half (2-8, 5.77 ERA, 1.58 WHIP).

The rotation also consists of veteran Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 4.77), Brad Bergesen (3-6, 6.40), Brian Matusz (3-9, 4.77), and rookie Jake Arrieta (3-2, 4.38).  A consolation prize belongs to closer Alfredo Simon (2-1, 13 saves, 3.24 ERA), as the management seems to have found a stable reliever to close games.

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We’re just a week away from the Midsummer Classic, which, despite the bastardization of the game by Bud Selig, remains a “must-see” on the sporting calendar. Unfortunately, due to roster limitations and obligations, not all of baseball’s finest get the opportunity to participate in the all-star spectacle. This has spawned the concept of the inaugural Whatifsports.com 2010 Fantasy All-Star rosters . Our selection committee was given two simple guidelines when constructing the starting lineups for both leagues:

1. Let the numbers speak for themselves.

2. Understand the preseason “value” of the selection. For example, young phenoms David Price and Felix Hernandez are having exceptional years. However, would you rather have Hernandez in the 4th round or Price in the 9th? Exactly.

Keeping these restrictions in mind, we present the Fantasy All-Stars of 2010.

First Base

AL: In many preseason rankings, this player was slotted in the high 20s at his position. Worse, he wasn’t even the highest graded 1st baseman on his own team. Yet through the first half of the season, this 4-time All-Star is hitting .299 with 20 bombs and 58 driven in.

Our AL choice: Paul Konerko .

NL:

To summarize, Player A is statistically superior in every category despite playing in three less ballgames, equating to 12-15 missed at-bat opportunities. Unlike Charlie Manuel, politics don’t dictate our All-Star selections, meaning “Player A” gets the nod at 1B.

Our NL choice: Joey Votto . (And in case you haven’t deduced the identity of the three remaining players: Albert Pujols , Adrian Gonzalez , and Ryan Howard , all of whom were initially picked over Votto.)

Second Base

AL: Although he was a trendy choice in the preseason, there’s no denying this pick deserves to start in the WIS All-Star gala. Second in the AL in hitting at .342, this second baseman has also added 16 HRs, 55 RBI and 59 Rs.

Our AL choice: Robinson Cano .

NL: Brandon Phillips has excelled for the Reds since moving to the top of the lineup, hitting .307 with 64 runs. However, BP was a top-5 preseason choice in most leagues at the position, while our candidate barely cracked the top-25. Yet our choice is ranking with a .331 average, 57 runs and 36 ribbies.

Our NL choice: Martin Prado. (While we are discussing the Braves – Omar Infante ? Really? What, was Mike Fontenot unable to play? It’s not like Atlanta needed a representative, as Prado, Tim Hudson , Brian McCann and Jason Heyward are headed to Anaheim. Fans get blasted all the time by the media for making their ballots a popularity contest, but Manuel has gone relatively unscathed for going with Infante over Votto, Miguel Olivo , Matt Cain , or the entire Padre pitching staff. Go figure.)

Shortstop

AL: Although he hasn’t been able to keep up with his April tear, his performance is still noteworthy, given that this SS was ranked in the 300s in overall player ratings to begin the season.

Our AL choice: Alex Gonzalez , whose 15 home runs are tops for shortstops in the majors.

NL: Statistically, Hanley Ramirez is the top-rated NL shortstop in 2010. However, most mock drafts had the Florida Marlin as a second or third overall pick, and in that regard, Ramirez has been somewhat of a disappointment. Instead, we are going with a .335 hitter who, despite only appearing in 52 games, has accumulated 30 RBI, 44 Rs, and 12 SBs.

Our NL choice: Rafael Furcal . (In case you needed more evidence of the irrationality of the Infante inclusion, Furcal has appeared in six less games, yet has a batting average 30 points higher, 8 more RBI, 21 more runs, and 9 more stolen bases. Let’s move on before my head explodes.)

Third Base

AL: Coming into 2010, this third baseman was ranked in the low-teens at his position. Yet at the halfway point, his production has earned him his first All-Star Game invitation, hitting .340 with 12 HRs, 54 RBI and 41 Rs.

Our AL choice: Adrian Beltre .

NL: Our selection on the Senior Circuit is second at his position in HRs (17) and RBI (57), and is rocking a .301 average. Not bad for someone who was projected as the 24th best third baseman before the season.

Our NL choice: Scott Rolen .

Outfield

AL: Our first nominee is arguably the top fantasy performer of the 1st half, which is incredible considering he was going as late as the 7th round in mock drafts. But after slugging 20 home runs to go along with a .340 average and 61 RBI, there’s no questioning the candidacy of Josh Hamilton on our roster. Our next pick is batting .315 on the season with 10 homers and 51 RBI. Ranked as high as 200 in overall player ratings, Magglio Ordonez has exceeded expectations in 2010. We rounded out our OF with Alex Rios , whose stat line reads: .299 BA/13 HR/45 RBI/49 R/22 SB. Although Rios was snubbed from Joe Girardi ‘s Anaheim lineup, I’m sure induction on our squad is adequate consolation.

NL: Young gun Carlos Gonzalez has been phenomenal in 2010, hitting .295 with 14 HRs, 52 RBI, and 49 runs scored for Colorado. Before he missed extended time due to injury, Andre Ethier was a serious Triple Crown-contender. Regardless of appearing in just 64 games, Ethier has 13 jacks, 49 RBI and 40 runs to go along with a .324 average. Corey Hart , whom most projections had going in the 15th-17th round range in mock drafts, gets the final spot thanks to smacking 19 dingers and driving in 61 runs.

Starters

AL: At age 38, Andy Pettitte was considered to be in the twilight of his career. Yet through 16 games in 2008, Pettitte is supporting a 10-2 record with a 2.82 ERA in 105.1 IP. Pettitte was going in late rounds of mocks, and even an undrafted Pettitte was not an anomaly in many leagues. This sentiment gives the Yankee left-hander our starting pitcher selection.

NL: On the opposite end from Pettitte on the age spectrum is Mat Latos , who’s all of 22 years young. Latos has an absurd 0.96 WHIP and 2.62 ERA in 99.2 IP through 16 games with the Padres in ’10. While Latos was a highly touted prospect heading into this season, this type of production was unforeseen by most fantasy forecasts, as Latos was ranked in the low 300s in overall player rankings.

Reliever

AL: Closers are always hard to gauge during draft day for fantasy owners, as one or two relief pitchers always fall through the cracks. This year’s diamond in the rough is Tampa Bay’s Rafael Soriano , who has amassed 22 saves so far in 2010. With a 1.42 ERA in 31.2 IP, Soriano has emerged as one of the AL’s most effective firemen.

NL: Like there was any doubt: Jonathon Broxton. Ox has racked up 17 saves on the season, despite going almost an entire month without a save. (In an unrelated note, although he’s never logged a minute on the court, I’d love to see Broxton declare himself a free-agent in the NBA. That proposal might seem ridiculous until you remember that Drew Gooden earned a 4 year, $32 million contract. Using this scale, Ox is worth the max.)

That’ll do it for this week. The “Dumb and Dumber” Quote of the Week is dedicated to those venturing on a summer road trip:

Lloyd: We don’t usually pick up hitchhikers… but I’m gonna go with my instincts on this one. Saddle up partner!

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