Tag: Fantasy Sports

Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Bargain Buys, Sleepers for August 6

Thursday’s slate of MLB action includes 10 games, five during the day and five at night.  DraftKings daily fantasy players have a limited number of choices available in both the afternoon and evening contests.  The key to success might not be how the stars in your lineup perform, but whether or not the cheaper players on your roster contribute points as well.  

Factors such as recent hot streaks and favorable matchups make these five low-cost options solid sleeper picks for August 6.

 

Afternoon

Joe Ross, SP, Washington Nationals ($8,700)

After Zack Greinke and Michael Wacha, pitching prospects in the early games drop off considerably.  Joe Ross is likely the best of the rest.

Ross makes only his seventh career start on Thursday, but he’s been quite impressive through his first six.  He’s lasted at least five innings in each outing while never surrendering more than three runs.  As MLB Stat of the Day noted, Ross is showing spectacular control for a rookie:

Over 39 innings, Ross has 40 strikeouts and just four walks.  He’s also holding opposing hitters to a .221 batting average.

 

Yangervis Solarte, 1B/2B, San Diego Padres ($3,400)

Yangervis Solarte is tearing the cover off the ball lately.  Solarte currently owns an 11-game hitting streak, with multiple base knocks in six of his last eight contests.  In that stretch, his season batting average has risen from .246 to .269.

Solarte owns much better numbers when playing away from spacious Petco Park this season.  All seven of his home runs have come on the road, where he’s averaging 6.6 fantasy points per game, as opposed to 4.9 at home.

In two career plate appearances facing Milwaukee Brewers starter Matt Garza, Solarte is 1-for-1 with a walk and an RBI.

 

Evening

Mark Buehrle, SP, Toronto Blue Jays ($8,900)

Among a very thin field of pitching talent, Mark Buehrle may be the most reliable arm on the mound on Thursday night.

Buehrle has pitched at least six innings in 14 of his last 15 starts, with the lone exception being a 5.2-inning stint on July 26.  In addition, he hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in a game in June, July or August, a span of 11 straight appearances.

The lefty has also yielded only one walk in his last 44.2 innings, dating back to June 26.

Above are highlights from Buehrle’s previous outing against the Minnesota Twins on May 29, in which he threw a complete game, walked none and allowed just one hit after the first inning. 

 

Josh Reddick, OF, Oakland A’s ($4,100)

Josh Reddick is day-to-day with a sore back and hasn’t started since Sunday, although he entered Wednesday’s game as a pinch hitter and logged two innings of defense in right field.

Assuming he’s back in the lineup on Thursday, Reddick is an excellent play against the Houston Astros’ Scott Feldman.  Reddick has five extra-base hits in 23 career at-bats versus Feldman, including three home runs.

Reddick is also much happier when facing right-handed pitchers—11 of his 13 homers and 48 of his 58 RBI have come off of righties.  He’s also batting .312 against right-handers, compared to .190 versus lefties.

 

Ryan Goins, 2B/SS, Toronto Blue Jays ($2,300)

If you’re low on cash and need to fill out your squad with a middle infielder, Ryan Goins is your man.  The Blue Jays second baseman owns a modest four-game hitting streak, during which he’s 6-for-11.  Goins has also reached base in six straight contests.

As Toronto play-by-play man Mike Wilner pointed out, Goins is an on-base machine at the moment:

To further boost his fantasy value, Goins has scored eight runs in a span of eight games.  At a bargain price of $2,300, a few points from Goins could make the difference between winning money and finishing empty-handed. 

 

All prices courtesy of DraftKings.  Statistics via MLB.com unless otherwise noted.  Mark Vandeusen is an MLB featured columnist for Bleacher Report.  Follow him on Twitter @LucidSportsFan.


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Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Ideal Lineup Picks for August 4

Every MLB team is in action on Tuesday night, allowing DraftKings daily fantasy players a full complement of hitters to choose from.  There are also a number of top-flight arms taking the mound, including Max Scherzer, Chris Sale and Chris Archer.  With so many possibilities available, making the right selections to finish in the money becomes harder than ever.

Here are five ideal lineup picks for August 4.

 

Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays ($11,700)

If you’re hesitant to spend $13,500 on Scherzer as an ace, Archer represents a much more affordable option at nearly $2,000 less.  The Rays All-Star is third in the majors with 173 strikeouts, one more than Scherzer and only four fewer than Sale.  Archer’s 0.99 WHIP and .206 batting average against each rank among the top 10 in baseball.

In his last appearance, Archer took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers before surrendering a pair of unearned runs.  Over his past three starts, Archer has struck out 26 batters and yielded a total of three earned runs while averaging 27.2 fantasy points per game.

Archer matches up with Sale and the Chicago White Sox Tuesday, a club that is last in the American League with 387 runs scored.  Sale is also in a bit of a slump, having allowed 13 earned runs and 30 hits spanning his last three outings.

 

Jake Arrieta, SP, Chicago Cubs ($11,500)

For the past month and a half, Jake Arrieta has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the big leagues.  In each of his last eight starts, Arrieta tossed at least six innings and never gave up more than three earned runs.  During that time his ERA has dropped from 3.40 to 2.62, while opposing hitters batted just .172 against him.

Arrieta was also very good in two previous games against the Pittsburgh Pirates this season:

The Cubs righty is on a strikeout binge of late, having fanned 33 batters over 28 innings in his past four appearances.  Arrieta also boasts a 2.21 road ERA this year, compared to 3.07 at home.

 

Ian Kinsler, 2B, Detroit Tigers ($4,100)

Ian Kinsler is on fire at the moment, coming off a weekend series in Baltimore in which he went 12-for-17 and recorded multiple hits in all four games.  He scored double-digit fantasy points on each occasion, while averaging 14 per day.  The Tigers’ official Twitter account made note of his outstanding performance:

Kinsler’s hot streak extends well beyond just his last four contests.  After batting .262 through the first three months of the season, Kinsler hit .366 in July.  Three of his five home runs this year also came last month.  Since June 25, Kinsler has raised his average from .257 to .297.

The second baseman’s 39 hits in his last 30 games are tied for the second-most in baseball in that time.

 

Colby Rasmus, OF, Houston Astros ($3,300)

Colby Rasmus is batting just .237 this season with an on-base percentage of .305.  You’re not putting Rasmus in your lineup for his 2015 numbers, however, but rather for his history when facing the Texas Rangers and starter Yovani Gallardo.

Through 27 career plate appearances, Rasmus owns a .481 OBP versus Gallardo, with four extra-base hits, four RBI and five runs scored.  Even more impressive is what he’s done in his previous visits to Globe Life Park in Arlington, including slugging six homers in 10 games:

In his last two starts, Rasmus is 3-for-7 with two runs scored and two RBI.  With a price tag of only $3,300, Rasmus will be an incredible bargain if he can continue his success both in Texas and against Gallardo.

 

Freddy Galvis, 3B/SS, Philadelphia Phillies ($3,000)

Like Rasmus, Freddy Galvis is a matchup play.  The Phillies shortstop is hitting .600 for his career against Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Alex Wood:

Galvis is also swinging the bat well of late.  He has four hits in his last two games and has reached base in 10 of his past 11 contests.  It’s also worth noting that Galvis is a better hitter at home than on the road in 2015—he’s batting .291 with a .451 slugging percentage in Philadelphia as opposed to .265 and .337 in away games.

If you’re running low on money and need a shortstop or third baseman to finish out your roster, Galvis could provide solid bang for your buck.

 

All prices courtesy of DraftKings. Statistics via MLB.com unless otherwise noted. Mark Vandeusen is an MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @LucidSportsFan.


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Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: These MLB Advanced Metrics Can Make You a Winner

When doing research on your favorite player, you may come across some statistic types you might have never heard of before. These metrics can help you win your fantasy baseball league if you know more about them and how they work.

Here are four types of MLB advanced metrics that can help you in your respective fantasy baseball leagues.

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Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: Best DraftKings MLB Pitcher Picks for July 7

Washington Nationals All-Star Max Scherzer headlines the list of starting pitchers taking the hill across MLB Tuesday night.  Is his exorbitant salary a worthwhile investment for DraftKings daily fantasy players?  With 15 games on the docket, there of plenty of other possibilities to choose from as well.

Here are five of the top pitching options in a variety of price ranges for July 7.

 

Max Scherzer ($14,200) vs. Cincinnati Reds

Scherzer‘s $14,200 price tag is $3,000 more than any other pitcher available, but he’s earned it.  His 0.78 WHIP and .181 batting average against are easily the best in baseball, while his 1.82 ERA is second only to Zack Greinke’s 1.48.

The Washington Nationals ace has uncharacteristically allowed a pair of earned runs in each of his last two outings, yet still posted at least 29 fantasy points both times.  For the season, Scherzer is averaging a spectacular 30.8 fantasy points per game.  Over his last four starts, that number jumps to an absurd 43.8.  In that stretch he’s thrown complete games in three of four appearances, while pitching 34.1 out of a possible 35 innings.  Scherzer also has 42 strikeouts and just one walk in that time.

On Tuesday, he’ll face a Reds team batting .249 on the season, 11th in the National League.  Combined with the fact that Scherzer actually costs $300 less than he did his last time out, it’s worth dropping the enormous chunk of change it’ll take to get him in your lineup.

 

Sonny Gray ($9,600) at New York Yankees

With an average of 22.3 fantasy points per game, Sonny Gray is outscoring Francisco Liriano and Johnny Cueto, despite costing $700 and $500 less, respectively.  Gray’s 2.09 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .205 batting average against all rank among the top 10 in MLB.

On Monday, Gray expressed his gratitude for being chosen to play in his first All-Star Game, something that should give him a little extra incentive when he steps onto the mound Tuesday:

In his only previous start against the Yankees this season, Gray earned a victory while surrendering just four hits and two earned runs in eight innings.  Gray’s opponent, Nathan Eovaldi, is 0-1 with a 5.60 ERA in three career starts versus the Oakland A’s.

 

Taijuan Walker ($8,200) vs. Detroit Tigers

Taijuan Walker’s 4.34 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2015 suggest he’s not a pitcher who should cost upward of $8,000.  However, Walker is red-hot at the moment after busting out of an early-season slump.

He’s gone 5-0 in his last five starts and scored over 20 fantasy points in seven straight outings.  Ironically, Walker hasn’t walked a batter in four starts while striking out 30 in 26.1 innings.

The 22-year-old has tossed six or more innings in his last seven games while lowering his season ERA from 7.33 to 4.34.

 

Yovani Gallardo ($7,200) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Yovani Gallardo last allowed a run on June 10, more than four starts ago.  As noted by Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Gallardo is in the midst of one of the most impressive scoreless streaks in franchise history:

Since the month of May, Gallardo has given up a total of two earned runs.  Dating back to his last loss on May 19, the veteran is 4-0 with an ERA of 0.70 spanning eight outings.

In addition to the great run he’s currently on, Gallardo also boasts stellar numbers for his career against the Diamondbacks—a 7-1 record and a 2.12 ERA in 11 starts.

 

Manny Banuelos ($5,900) at Milwaukee Brewers

If you’re looking for a pitcher with the potential to provide quality stats at a bargain price, Manny Banuelos is your guy.  Banuelos has just a single major league start under his belt, but the results were exceptional.  The rookie allowed only two hits in 5.2 shutout innings while striking out seven batters.

Shortly after his early departure from the game, the Atlanta Braves announced it was for medical reasons:

Banuelos should be properly hydrated and ready to go for his second big league appearance Tuesday.

It’s not much to go on, but the Braves are 4-1 against the Brewers this year.  Banuelos is obviously a shot in the dark, which is really all that can be expected from a pitcher priced below $6,000. 

 

All prices courtesy of DraftKings. Statistics via MLB.com unless otherwise noted. Mark Vandeusen is an MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @LucidSportsFan.


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Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: Best DraftKings MLB Pitcher Picks for June 30

All 30 MLB teams are in action Tuesday evening, giving DraftKings daily fantasy players a wide variety of pitching options to choose from.  Chris Sale is the biggest name on the board, but there are also several quality bargains available at much more affordable prices.

Here are five pitchers who should provide the best bang for your buck on June 30.

 

Chris Sale ($12,800) at St. Louis Cardinals

Chris Sale’s salary is $2,100 higher than any other starter going, but his resume of late makes him well worth it.  In his last time out, Sale surrendered five earned runs in 6.2 innings while taking a loss against the Minnesota Twins.  But he still recorded 19 fantasy points, in large part because he struck out 10 batters.

Sale struck out at least 10 in each of his last seven starts, one shy of tying the major league record dating back to 1914.  He has a total of 85 strikeouts during the seven-game streak.  Before his minor slip-up in Minnesota, Sale recorded 30 or more fantasy points in five consecutive outings, including over 40 in four of the five.

For the season, Sale has 129 strikeouts, the fourth-most in baseball, in just 95.1 innings pitched.  His 0.98 WHIP also ranks eighth in the majors.

 

Dallas Keuchel ($9,800) vs. Kansas City Royals

Dallas Keuchel’s 23.6 fantasy points per game is the second-highest scoring average of any pitching on the mound Tuesday, yet he comes cheaper than Sonny Gray, Cole Hamels and Lance Lynn.

Keuchel is a workhorse, leading MLB with 116.1 innings pitched.  He’s also tied for the top spot in both complete games and shutouts:

The lefty ranks eighth in baseball with a 2.17 ERA, while his 0.96 WHIP is sixth and his .194 batting average against is third.  Keuchel also has the added bonus of matching up against Royals starter Danny Duffy, who boasts a 5.44 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. 

 

Shelby Miller ($7,900) vs. Washington Nationals

Like Keuchel, Shelby Miller is tied for the major league lead with two shutouts.  At just $7,900, Miller can provide an ace-like performance at a significantly lower cost. 

As noted by Fox Sports South, in his last start against the Washington Nationals, Miller faced the minimum number of hitters through six innings:

He finished the game with a no-decision after yielding three hits, a walk and one earned run in seven innings.

Miller has never given up more than four runs in a single outing this season and allowed two or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 15 starts.  Both his 1.94 ERA and .200 batting average against rank among the top five in the majors.

 

Mike Montgomery ($6,800) at San Diego Padres

Through five major league starts, Mike Montgomery is averaging an impressive 19.8 fantasy points per game.  That stat is skewed, however, by the 45.7 points he registered the last time he took the hill.

MLB.com’s Paul Casella noted Montgomery’s rare accomplishment:

Even without Montgomery’s one spectacular showing, his overall numbers are quite consistent to this point.  He surrendered two or fewer runs in four of his five appearances, giving up four in the other.  Montgomery also lasted at least six innings in all five of his starts.

On Tuesday, he faces a San Diego Padres team with a .244 team batting average, the fourth-worst in the National League.

 

Marco Estrada ($6,300) vs. Boston Red Sox

After allowing a total of three hits in 15.2 innings over his past two games, Marco Estrada is as hot as any starter in baseball.

Via MLB.com:

Estrada became the first pitcher since Dave Stieb in 1988 to take a no-hitter into the eighth inning in back-to-back starts. In his last outing, Estrada was perfect through seven until he allowed an infield single with one out in the eighth.

It’s an extremely small sample size, but if you’re going to spend below $6,500 on a pitcher, you might as well ride the hot hand.

Estrada’s season stats are also perfectly respectable—a 3.45 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 63 strikeouts in 73 innings.  And with baseball’s highest-scoring offense behind him, the Toronto Blue Jays righty is a decent play for the money.

 

All prices courtesy of DraftKings. Statistics via MLB.com unless otherwise noted. Mark Vandeusen is an MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @LucidSportsFan.


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Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: Best DraftKings MLB Pitcher Picks for June 16

There aren’t many big-name starting pitchers taking the mound across MLB on Tuesday. Combined with the fact that there are five day games on the schedule, DraftKings daily fantasy players may have to think outside the box while setting their lineups.  

From an aging veteran to a rookie just getting his feet wet, here are five of the best values on the board for pitchers on June 16. 

 

Afternoon

Michael Wacha ($9,200) vs. Minnesota Twins

Michael Wacha has the second-highest salary among pitchers in the day games, but with an average of 18.8 fantasy points per outing, he’s easily the top scorer. Wacha‘s 2.45 ERA ranks seventh in the National League, while his 1.08 WHIP and .224 batting average against are both 11th.

His overall numbers aren’t dominant, but they are extremely consistent. Take a look at a recent tweet from Fox Sports Midwest’s Luke Thompson:

Through 12 games this season, Wacha has never allowed more than four runs or failed to last at least five innings. In nine of his 12 starts, he’s surrendered two or fewer earned runs. The 23-year-old has totaled over 19 fantasy points in five of his last six appearances and has scored better than 11 every time out.

 

Tim Lincecum ($7,800) vs. Seattle Mariners

He’s nowhere close to the pitcher he once was, but Tim Lincecum has several things going for him on Tuesday. Inside the confines of AT&T Park this season, Lincecum is averaging a solid 16.8 fantasy points per game.

In addition to pitching at home, Lincecum boasts a very favorable matchup against the Mariners. Seattle has scored the fewest runs of any team in the American League, while also posting an AL-worst .234 team batting average.

Lincecum owns many unspectacular starts this year, but he has always avoided disaster—the most runs he’s given up in any game is four.

 

Evening

Jake Arrieta ($9,000) vs. Cleveland Indians

For the season, Jake Arrieta is scoring 21.4 fantasy points per game. It’s the highest average of any pitcher on Tuesday and a much better value than Matt Harvey’s 21.0 at $10,800.

After spending the first three-and-a-half years of his career with the Baltimore Orioles, Arrieta‘s stats drastically improved upon joining the Chicago Cubs in 2013.

The 29-year-old is eighth in the NL with 83 strikeouts in 77 innings pitched. As with Wacha, Arrieta has thrown at least five innings and given up four or fewer earned runs in all 12 of his starts.

 

Nathan Eovaldi ($6,900) at Miami Marlins

With a 4.13 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP, Nathan Eovaldi is putting together an extremely mediocre season for the New York Yankees. Could he be in line for a quality start when he takes on his previous ballclub for the first time? Lohud Yankees Blog noted Tuesday’s pitching battle:

The two righties were actually part of the same deal between the Yankees and Marlins last December. Eovaldi should have the advantage in his old home against David Phelps, who faces a Yankee lineup that’s scored the fourth-most runs in baseball. On the other hand, only five clubs have plated fewer runs in 2015 than the Marlins.

There’s no denying Eovaldi is a risky choice. However, he’s got a 2.92 ERA in June and should have a little extra motivation for his first trip back to Miami.

 

Chi Chi Gonzalez ($5,400) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Chi Chi Gonzalez has just three major league starts under his belt, but they’ve all been quite effective. Lone Star Ball’s Adam J. Morris tweeted Gonzalez’s historic start:

Over 21.2 innings, Gonzalez has yielded just a single earned run. His 10 walks are a bit high, and his eight strikeouts are fairly low, but his fantasy totals are excellent. With an average of 20.5 points per game at a price of $5,400, Gonzalez gives you 3.8 points for every $1,000 spent.

The rookie’s string of impressive starts will likely come to a close in the near future. Considering Gonzalez’s bargain salary, it’s worthwhile to run him out there until it does.

 

All prices courtesy of DraftKings. Statistics via MLB.com unless otherwise noted. Mark Vandeusen is an MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @LucidSportsFan.


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MLB: Fantasy Baseball Owners Pick Up Oakland A’s OF Craig Gentry off Waivers

The Oakland Athletics announced Tuesday that they are placing outfielder Josh Reddick on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive June 1. Reddick hyperextended his left knee in Saturday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels.

Both A’s fans and fantasy baseball managers rejoice!

The 27-year-old Reddick has struggled for most of the season. Though he has been in the zone a few times thus far, these stretches have unfortunately come infrequently and not lasted for very long. His season numbers include a pathetic slash line of .214/.279/.339, with 41 strikeouts in 2014. Athletics manager Bob Melvin has to cringe each time Reddick clocks in an 0-for-4 day at the plate.

As grotesque as Reddick’s statistics are for a big league manager to look at, they’re even worse, if that’s possible, coming from the point of view of a fantasy baseball manager. Reddick’s terrible plate discipline and pitch recognition result in just 14 bases on balls. His low on-base percentage means that he only has 19 runs scored this season. And he has recorded just one lonesome stolen base—the same number as his un-fleet teammates John Jaso, Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson, and one fewer than catcher Derek Norris.

Thus, Reddick’s stint on the disabled list will benefit fantasy owners who pick up Craig Gentry. The Athletics’ backup outfielder will undoubtedly receive the brunt of the playing time during Reddick’s time away: Fantasy owners should snare Gentry off the waiver wire right away.

Gentry has seen the playing field quite a bit this season as the fourth outfielder off the bench. Due to injuries to Reddick and Coco Crisp, Gentry has appeared in 41 of Oakland’s 57 games, and that’s after missing the first couple of weeks of the season nursing his own injury. Now that he is at full strength, Gentry is proving to be a major contributor to the A’s.

The 30-year-old has scored 21 runs, two more than Reddick, in just 100 at-bats. And fantasy owners will enjoy Gentry’s speed on the basepaths—nine stolen bases this season without being caught. Look for Gentry to have a bright green light anytime he has a stolen base opportunity.

One important factor for fantasy managers is Oakland’s penchant for platooning players. Oakland is expected to match up against three left-handed starters on its current nine-game road trip. On Wednesday, the A’s are scheduled to face New York Yankees lefty Vidal Nuno. Then they will see Wei-Yin Chen sometime during their visit to the Baltimore Orioles, and possibly Angels lefty Tyler Skaggs in Anaheim.

Fortunately for fantasy owners and for the right-handed hitting Gentry, he also hits righties well enough to be in the starting lineup every day. This season, Gentry is batting .260 against lefties and .280 against right-handers. In a larger sample size, over the previous three seasons, he hit .298 versus lefties and .278 versus righties.

Not bad. Melvin has slotted Gentry into Tuesday night’s lineup against Yankees righty Hiroki Kuroda.

Though he has not faced any of the Yankees starters in his career, Gentry has had decent success in limited at-bats against Baltimore’s starter and, in particular, the Angels’ starters. Expect to start Gentry throughout the Anaheim series, as Gentry is a combined 8-for-17 against Skaggs, Garrett Richards and Jered Weaver.

If you are in a pinch for an extra outfielder, especially for American League-only fantasy leagues, Gentry should be one to consider picking up. With guys like Shane Victorino and Mike Carp (Boston), Carlos Beltran (Yankees) and Wil Myers (Rays) on the DL, and day-to-day availability of Sam Fuld (Twins), James Jones (Mariners) and Michael Choice (Rangers), nabbing Gentry is an easy safety net for those who don’t have the luxury of re-activating Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton, who are both scheduled to come off the disabled list for the Angels on Tuesday.

 

Follow me on Twitter: @nathanieljue

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2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Fantasy Third Basemen

Coming off a historic season, the Detroit Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera is clearly the top fantasy third baseman and arguably the top player in fantasy baseball in 2013.

Not only did Miggy set career highs in home runs (44) and runs batted in (139), but he became the first player to win the triple crown since Carl Yastrzemski won it more than 40 years ago. He led all of baseball in homers and RBIs and was second in batting average (.330) behind only San Francisco’s Buster Posey, who won the NL batting title with a .336 average.

As a lifetime .318 hitter, Cabrera has hit .320-plus in seven of the past eight seasons with the exception being 2008 when he hit just .292.

With the exception of his rookie season (2003) when he played only 87 games, Cabrera has driven in 100-plus runs every year and has at least 125 RBI in three of the his five seasons in Detroit. He also has scored at least 109 runs in each of the past three seasons.

 

While he’s unlikely to repeat as a triple crown winner, Cabrera is one of the most dangerous and consistent hitters in the game and should continue to put up MVP-caliber numbers that fantasy owners can take to the bank.

 

Monster Second Half for Headley

San Diego’s Chase Headley has been a consistent source of stolen bases at a position that typically lacks speedsters. With double-digit steals in the past four seasons, Headley tied his career high with 17 steals last year. Of all third base-eligible players, only Hanley Ramirez had more steals (21).

It was Headley‘s power production, however, that was noteworthy.

Headley, who turns 29 this season, hit nearly as many home runs in 2012 as he had hit in the rest of his career combined. Before last season’s career-high 31 home runs, Headley had never hit more than 12 in any season.

In addition to shattering his career high in homers, Headley drove in an NL-high 115 runs, which is more than 50 RBIs higher than his previous career high (64) set in 2009 as well.

While he had a solid first half, Headley was as dominant as any hitter in the second half. In 75 games after the All-Star break, he hit .308 with 23 home runs and 73 runs batted in.

 

Can he carry that type of momentum over into the 2013 season?

 

Breakout Year for Alvarez

After a solid debut for Pittsburgh Pirates third base prospect Pedro Alvarez in 2010, he could not have frustrated fantasy owners much more than he did in 2011.

As a rookie, Alvarez, the second overall pick in the 2008 draft, hit 16 home runs with 64 runs batted in with a fair (but not great) .256 average in 95 games.

Not only did he hit below the Mendoza Line in his second season (.191), but the slugger hit a mere four home runs in 262 big-league at-bats in 2011. He spent 42 games in the minors that season.

From a batting average standpoint, Alvarez hit much better from June to October (.259) last year than he did in March through May (.205).

 

While he will never win any batting titles, Alvarez had the type of power production last year that many expected in 2011. He finished the year with 30 home runs and 85 runs batted in, both of which were career highs.

 

Some More Third Basemen Notes

After an injury-shortened 2011 campaign, New York Mets third baseman David Wright played 156 games and had a strong all-around season in 2012. Hitting above .300 for the first time since 2009, Wright hit 21 home runs, stole 15 bases, scored 91 runs and drove in 93 runs. As much as any other third baseman, he’s a strong contributor in all five roto categories.

Baltimore’s Manny Machado is one of the game’s top young players and won’t turn 21 until early July. With tremendous promise, Machado played 51 games last season and should be the Orioles’ everyday third baseman in 2013. Unless you’re in a deep or AL-only league and need to start Machado, he provides plenty of upside as a bench guy.

Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria is my second-ranked third baseman, but the obvious concern is durability with Longoria. Playing a total of only 207 games in the past two years combined, his 162-game pace over that span is for 37.57 home runs and 120.52 runs batted in. Of course, the question is how many of those 162 games will he miss?

 

In his first season with the Brewers, Aramis Ramirez hit 27 home runs, scored 92 runs to go along with 105 runs batted in, all of which are four-year highs. In addition, he hit .300 for a second consecutive season. After stealing a total of nine bases from 2003 to 2011, Ramirez stole a career-high nine bases last season alone.

 

Here are my third basemen rankings for the 2013 fantasy baseball season (based on Yahoo! eligibility):

1. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

3. David Wright, New York Mets

4. Hanley Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers

6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

7. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres

8. Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers

9. Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays

10. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants

11. Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels

12. David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals

13. Martin Prado, Arizona Diamondbacks

14. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates

15. Will Middlebrooks, Boston Red Sox

16. Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals

17. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners

18. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

19. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds

20. Marco Scutaro, San Francisco Giants

 

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2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Fantasy Catchers

One of my most tried and true draft strategies is to wait as long as possible before drafting my fantasy catcher.

Without question, San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey will be the first backstop drafted this year. In fact, he’s a borderline first-round pick using average draft position (ADP) data from Mock Draft Central, as he’s currently the 13th overall pick, on average, in their mock drafts.

While I would not take Posey with the 13th (or earlier) pick, I would consider using an early-round pick in the unlikely scenario that he slips to Round 3.

Since he’s also used at first base, Posey played a league-high 148 games and finished second in at-bats (530) behind Minnesota’s Joe Mauer (545) among the catcher-eligible players. Only six catchers finished the year with 500-plus at-bats and only 14 of them had 400-plus at-bats.

Not only did he get the opportunities (plate appearances), he made the most of the them.

Posey, the reigning NL Most Valuable Player, led the majors with a .336 average en route to his first batting title. Although three catchers had more homers than Posey (24), he was only four off the leaderColorado’s Wilin Rosario (28). In addition, Posey led all catchers in runs batted in (103), with 15 more than Arizona’s Miguel Montero, who finished second.

Unfortunately for Posey and his fantasy owners, he plays in a pitcher’s park and the vast majority of his home runs came on the road last year. While that trend should continue, he actually hit for a higher average at home (.343) than he did on the road (.330) last year.

 

 

Barring injury, Posey is the surest of sure things behind the plate. He may not finish with a line of .336/24/103 again, but .310/20/80 is a more-than-reasonable projection, with plenty of upside of a much better year.

 

Salvador Perez: Nice value at ADP of 134

If you speak Spanish, you know that “salvador” translates to savior.

While Kansas City’s Salvador Perez will not literally be your team’s “savior,” he’s a really good option at catcher and available relatively late. With an ADP of 134 (via Mock Draft Central), he’s the 11th catcher off the board.

After returning from knee surgery, the 22-year-old hit .301 with 11 homers in 76 games in 2012. Provided he stays healthy for a full season, Perez has the potential to hit .300 with around 20 home runs and 75 runs batted in this year.

Even though he walked in only 4.7 percent of his at-bats in the second half, only two catchers with at least 100 at-bats had a better (lower) strikeout rate than Perez (9.7 percent). Using data from FanGraphs, only Cincinnati catcher Ryan Hanigan (8.5 percent) and St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina (9.6 percent) had better rates.

 

 

Perhaps my projections are a bit too optimistic. That said, only three catchers hit .300 with 15 home runs last year: Posey, Yadier Molina and Carlos Ruiz.

 

Some More Catcher Notes

This offseason, it was discovered that Red Sox free-agent addition Mike Napoli has avascular necrosis, a degenerative hip condition. While the player and club initially agreed to a three-year deal, they ultimately settled on a one-year deal loaded with incentives. The hip injury is less of a concern for folks in re-draft leagues than for those in keeper or dynasty leagues.

 

No catcher has more homers than Napoli over the past three seasons (80), and he has five consecutive seasons with 20-plus home runs. In other words, there is a good chance that Napoli will lead all catchers in home runs this season.

Colorado’s Wilin Rosario plays half of his games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field and he took advantage last year as a rookie. While he hit .297 at home (versus .242 on the road), 18 of his position-high 28 homers and 44 of his 71 runs batted in came at home.

After playing only 82 games in 2011, the fewest since his rookie season, Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer played a career-high 147 games last year and had his fourth season with 600-plus plate appearances. While he’s unlikely to ever hit the 28 homers he hit in 2009 again, a .310/80/10/80 line is a very reasonable expectation for Mauer.

Baltimore Orioles backstop Matt Wieters set some career highs in 2012 with 144 games, 593 plate appearances, 23 home runs and 83 runs batted in, although he hit below .250 for the second time in the past three seasons. Wieters finished strong with a .296 average, six homers and 18 RBI in September and October.

The stars aligned perfectly last year for Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina. Molina set career highs in all of the 5×5 categories: .315 average, 65 runs, 22 home runs, 76 runs batted in and 12 stolen bases. While I expect a solid line (.305/60/15/65/8) for Molina, I don’t expect a repeat of those numbers and won’t pay for them, which means he likely won’t be on any of my teams in 2013. Based on his current ADP of 37 overall, I’d much rather wait for someone like Perez almost 100 spots later.

 

 

Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz set career highs in homers (16), RBI (68) and average (.325). Despite being a much stronger second-half hitter historically, Ruiz got off to a strong start last year: .350 average, 13 HR and 46 RBI before the All-Star break. For fantasy owners hoping for another strong start, Ruiz unfortunately will serve a 25-game suspension to begin the season for the use of adderall.

 

Here are my 2013 fantasy catcher rankings:

1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
2. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians
4. Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles
5. Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
6. Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers
7. Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies
8. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
9. Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox
10. Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks
11. Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners
12. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
13. Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Bucks
14. A.J. Pierzynski, Texas Rangers
15. Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers
16. Ryan Doumit, Minnesota Twins
17. Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies
18. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston Red Sox
19. J.P. Arencibia, Toronto Blue Jays
20. Tyler Flowers, Chicago White Sox

 

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Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2012: Pitchers You Don’t Want to Live Without

When building a fantasy rotation, you’re going to need to add depth, and the more you can add, the better you’ll be. Fortunately, you can do a lot of that with pitching, and these guys are some good ones to look at. Best of all is that any or all of these guys will probably be available to you. 

 

Mark Buehrle, Miami Marlins

The concern here is that Buehrle’s around the plate a lot, so he does surrender a lot of hits. But that’s really the only concern here. 

The hits are more than made up for by the fact that he hardly walks anybody, so the WHIP is greatly neutralized. On top of that, he does not allow a lot of run, so the ERA will be fine. 

Buehrle is pitching on a team that will give him plenty of chances to win games, and he throws a lot of innings, never logging fewer than 200 in a full season. That’s a good way to keep your staff ERA down, as it limits the damage caused by one run. 

On top of all of that, Buehrle is now in the National League, so he now gets the benefit of facing a pitcher instead of nine professional hitters. This is a good middle of the rotation guy that will make your team very deep in pitching. 

Dixon’s Projection’s 

IP  BB ER  W  ERA  WHIP
207  226  47 88 13  118  3.83  1.32

 

R.A. Dickey, New York Mets

The drawback here is the Mets are just not a very good team, so the wins aren’t likely to be high. Still, pitching in Citi Field has done good things for Dickey, who has a 3.08 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in two years as a Met.

What a guy like Dickey will do is enable you to pick up pitchers that will win a lot of games but have inflated ERA’s, like guys on the Yankees or Red Sox. Dickey will be there to provide a good balance. 

Even with the fences moving in, there is no reason to think that Citi Field won’t still be a strong pitching park. The fact is that it’s hard to hit that knuckle ball, so a spacious stadium is good for the ERA. The strikeouts won’t be great, but won’t be terrible either. 

Dixon’s Projection’s 

IP  BB ER  W  ERA  WHIP
205  198  52 78 13  129  3.42  1.22

 

Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays

Think of this is sort of a coupling move. I previously said Dickey would be valuable because you could then go for a guy on a good team that will win games but have a higher ERA and WHIP than you would like. Davis is that guy. 

The innings will be solid, which is always good. The walk totals won’t be high, which will neutralize a lot of hits. But the Rays will win a lot of games, which means Davis will win games. That’s just as valuable as any category in fantasy baseball. 

Dixon’s Projection’s 

IP  BB ER  W  ERA  WHIP
186  181  63 81 15  127  3.92  1.31

 

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