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You know those mutual fund ads that end with something like “past performance does not guarantee future results?” The Tampa Bay Rays medical staff, historically one of the top staffs in terms of results, is having a tough year. Its latest bad break is losing Wil Myers, its young slugging outfielder, for two months to a surprising stress fracture in his wrist, according to MLB.com. That could mean that Myers will be down on power for the rest of 2014.

The Rays only got half of the good news they were looking for. The team had been hoping that Myers could avoid surgery, and that looks to be the case now. However, the wrist is a very complex structure and if the fracture doesn’t heal perfectly, surgery may be necessary down the line. The key here is that something overstressed one of the bones, and that causation will need to be addressed.

The wrist appears simple from the outside, but it is a very complex joint, needed both for the hinging between the arm and hand and also for small movements, rotation and finger movements/grip. It is a structure of small interconnected bones lined with tendons, ligaments and cartilage, and all can be thrown off by even minute changes. 

Fractures are common and are difficult to heal due to the shape and positioning of the bones. Moving any of the connective structure can cause problems, and the area tends to have issues with scar tissue, which can alter the structure’s delicate balance. Worse, the problems can linger, especially with tendon or ligament involvement.

The most common problem after return from any wrist problem is a loss of power. Even surgically repaired wrists tend to show a short-term loss of power, likely from impeded motion leading to a loss of bat speed. That short term tends to last about six to eight weeks.

The best example of this is Pablo Sandoval, who has had both wrists fractured and repaired surgically. In both cases, he came back fine once time passed and the wrists were back to normal. Even gap power or “loud outs” are a positive sign if you’re watching to see when Myers might be ready to return to his normal level. 

In the short term, the Rays will use a combination of Ben Zobrist (himself just returned from the disabled list), Matt Joyce and Jerry Sands in right field. Joe Maddon will have to adjust his roster and potentially lose some flexibility with Zobrist in the outfield, but the team needs to maximize the situation.

Watch to see if Maddon finds ways to get Kevin Kiermaier into the lineup. The speedy defensive specialist is caught behind Desmond Jennings but has both power and stolen base potential if used. 

With the Rays in a disappointing slump and losing Myers for an extended period, plus his likely power drop, there are concerns that the team will consider trading off players like David Price or smaller pieces like a resurgent David DeJesus. I’ve known that front office a long time, and the Rays never act rashly, so I don’t think a six-week injury to even a star like Myers will change its plan. 

For Myers, his 2014 will be a down year. While he will likely return to the lineup sometime in mid-to-late July, his power may not return until near the end of the season, if then. His slash line and peripheral stats are already quite disappointing, but an injury takes away some of his chance to turn that around.

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The Oakland Athletics announced Tuesday that they are placing outfielder Josh Reddick on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive June 1. Reddick hyperextended his left knee in Saturday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels.

Both A’s fans and fantasy baseball managers rejoice!

The 27-year-old Reddick has struggled for most of the season. Though he has been in the zone a few times thus far, these stretches have unfortunately come infrequently and not lasted for very long. His season numbers include a pathetic slash line of .214/.279/.339, with 41 strikeouts in 2014. Athletics manager Bob Melvin has to cringe each time Reddick clocks in an 0-for-4 day at the plate.

As grotesque as Reddick’s statistics are for a big league manager to look at, they’re even worse, if that’s possible, coming from the point of view of a fantasy baseball manager. Reddick’s terrible plate discipline and pitch recognition result in just 14 bases on balls. His low on-base percentage means that he only has 19 runs scored this season. And he has recorded just one lonesome stolen base—the same number as his un-fleet teammates John Jaso, Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldson, and one fewer than catcher Derek Norris.

Thus, Reddick’s stint on the disabled list will benefit fantasy owners who pick up Craig Gentry. The Athletics’ backup outfielder will undoubtedly receive the brunt of the playing time during Reddick’s time away: Fantasy owners should snare Gentry off the waiver wire right away.

Gentry has seen the playing field quite a bit this season as the fourth outfielder off the bench. Due to injuries to Reddick and Coco Crisp, Gentry has appeared in 41 of Oakland’s 57 games, and that’s after missing the first couple of weeks of the season nursing his own injury. Now that he is at full strength, Gentry is proving to be a major contributor to the A’s.

The 30-year-old has scored 21 runs, two more than Reddick, in just 100 at-bats. And fantasy owners will enjoy Gentry’s speed on the basepaths—nine stolen bases this season without being caught. Look for Gentry to have a bright green light anytime he has a stolen base opportunity.

One important factor for fantasy managers is Oakland’s penchant for platooning players. Oakland is expected to match up against three left-handed starters on its current nine-game road trip. On Wednesday, the A’s are scheduled to face New York Yankees lefty Vidal Nuno. Then they will see Wei-Yin Chen sometime during their visit to the Baltimore Orioles, and possibly Angels lefty Tyler Skaggs in Anaheim.

Fortunately for fantasy owners and for the right-handed hitting Gentry, he also hits righties well enough to be in the starting lineup every day. This season, Gentry is batting .260 against lefties and .280 against right-handers. In a larger sample size, over the previous three seasons, he hit .298 versus lefties and .278 versus righties.

Not bad. Melvin has slotted Gentry into Tuesday night’s lineup against Yankees righty Hiroki Kuroda.

Though he has not faced any of the Yankees starters in his career, Gentry has had decent success in limited at-bats against Baltimore’s starter and, in particular, the Angels’ starters. Expect to start Gentry throughout the Anaheim series, as Gentry is a combined 8-for-17 against Skaggs, Garrett Richards and Jered Weaver.

If you are in a pinch for an extra outfielder, especially for American League-only fantasy leagues, Gentry should be one to consider picking up. With guys like Shane Victorino and Mike Carp (Boston), Carlos Beltran (Yankees) and Wil Myers (Rays) on the DL, and day-to-day availability of Sam Fuld (Twins), James Jones (Mariners) and Michael Choice (Rangers), nabbing Gentry is an easy safety net for those who don’t have the luxury of re-activating Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton, who are both scheduled to come off the disabled list for the Angels on Tuesday.

Follow me on Twitter: @nathanieljue

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The New York Yankees aren’t sitting back and waiting for the results of Mark Teixeira’s latest tests on his surgically repaired wrist. According to Jon Heyman of CBS, the Yankees have approached Kendrys Morales, who could sign as soon as Thursday evening.

Morales has been held hostage by the rules of baseball. As one of few free agents that was given a qualifying offer of $13.3 million by his former team, signing Morales would have cost his new team their first-round pick.  Since the Yankees have already signed one of these players in Brian McCann, the Yankees would have to surrender their second-round pick, their highest, which would push them back from selecting 55th. Signing Morales before the draft would mean that the Yankees would not pick until 91. 

However, initial reports on Teixeira’s chronic wrist problem are positive. Daniel Barbarisi of the Wall Street Journal reports that Teixeira got good news from the doctor and could be back as soon as Tuesday. Reports have varied on which doctors Teixeira was seeing, but sources tell me that the answer was “all of the above.”

Teixeira saw not only Yankees team doctors and his surgeon, but he also called in at least one consulting surgeon for an opinion, thought to be Dr. Thomas Graham, the hand surgeon that worked on Bryce Harper’s thumb among others. Wrist problems like this normally do not recur after surgery, but the structures of the wrist are very fine. Even a small problem like scar tissue or inflammation can upset the entire anatomic structure, creating pain and weakness as Teixeira has dealt with.

The worry now is that Teixeira’s wrist is a chronic problem. Even with the positive reports and a possible quick return, there’s no guarantee that the wrist won’t act up again. Even with ace rehabber Mark Littlefield focused on Teixeira’s maintenance, this episode has Girardi and his staff worried about how much Teixeira will play, let alone hit.

Manager Joe Girardi told the press Monday that he was tired of playing a man down, intimating that he would like to see Teixeira on the DL. If Teixeira is able to play quickly, I’m sure Girardi would welcome him back, especially if he gets a good look at the Scranton roster that offers little in the way of quick fixes.

Morales would not be available until Thursday at the earliest, though it is much more likely that he will need a quick trip through the minor leagues. That is what Stephen Drew did after signing late and returning to the Boston Red Sox after being trapped by the same situation.

Signing Morales would lock up the DH slot and not offer much in the way of help for first base. Morales’ chronic ankle problems have limited his mobility greatly. It would also hurt the flexibility of a roster that is already inflexible and further tax a medical staff that is dealing with several players that require extensive maintenance and pregame routines.

There’s also the worry that Derek Jeter, now in his final season, will need the DH slot more if his ankle becomes problematic. Jeter has already been benched more than expected in order to keep him available during his victory lap, but that taxes the roster even more. 

While the Yankees aren’t out of the AL East race by any means—they currently carry a 41 percent chance of making the postseason according to Clay Davenport—the addition of another solid bat has to be tempting for a team like the Yankees. 

There’s one other piece of timing that needs to be mentioned, and that is the 90-day elimination period that is in place on Mark Teixeira’s insurance. The Yankees would have to wait that 90 days before they would be able to collect any money to alleviate the cost of Teixeira’s absence. The clock restarts if Teixeira plays even one game, so they will need to have some comfort level with his wrist before putting him in the lineup.

With the return of Teixeira and Carlos Beltran, who is currently trying to avoid surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow, the Yankees wouldn’t need Morales. That would leave several other teams, including the Kansas City Royals, Texas Rangers and the inevitable “mystery team” that comes with a Scott Boras signing. A decision will likely be made shortly and the wait over for Morales just after the Houston Astros make their pick Thursday evening.

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The Kansas City Royals received good news on Tuesday after the MRI results on rookie phenom Yordano Ventura came back. Royals general manager Dayton Moore told MLB Network (via Matt Snyder of CBS Sports) that Ventura would miss only one start, though he declined to offer specifics about the injury.

Ventura worried Royals fans when he left his Monday start holding his elbow tightly to his side. Ventura had not shown his normal velocity, causing manager Ned Yost to ask if he was throwing changeups, according to Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star. Ventura has been clocked at the magic 100 mph mark several times this season, so the drop-off was very noticeable. 

Initial reports came from the mouth of Yost, who said that all of Ventura‘s pain was on the lateral side of the elbow, which can be confusing to many due to anatomical positions used to describe the elbow. While the ulnar collateral ligament is on the medial side—it is also called the medial collateral ligament by some, including Mets team physician David Altchek—there are cases of referred pain. 

The lateral aspect has many possibilities, including an olecranon fracture, bursitis or bone spurs. With Yost also saying that Ventura was “banging his fastball,” there’s the possibility that Ventura is literally banging the bones of his upper and lower arm together on every pitch. (Go ahead and try this at home. Gently (!) extend your arm. If you push just past a comfortable lock, you will feel the bones touch.)

Since X-rays are quick, the fracture and spurs are unlikely to be the culprit.

Instead, the short-term timeline and lack of a differential diagnosis leaves us with the vagaries of inflammation. The Royals have yet to elucidate us on causation, which makes me wonder whether they know. It’s easy to rest Ventura and get the inflammation out with ice and anti-inflammatory medication but harder to fix the cause, especially if it’s unknown.

Many, including Jeff Passan of Yahoo, question whether or not Ventura‘s velocity is the problem, citing issues with other hard throwers. The problem is less about velocity and more about stress. Can a pitcher create huge forces without transferring too much load? We know that some pitchers create over 60 Newton-meters of force on a ligament that breaks at about 32 Newton-meters.

An analogy to this would be a race between two cars. Imagine taking your car and running it alongside a Ferrari around the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Sure, your car is probably nice, but I’m guessing it’s not a Ferrari. Both can probably do 100 mph around the track, but one of them will be taking a Sunday drive while the other is likely going to be bouncing off the red line and screeching around the turns. Pitchers are the same way; some deal with the stress better, though we don’t know why. 

The problem is that teams also don’t know. Yordano Ventura has never had a biomechanical analysis done, so the Royals have no idea how much stress he’s creating with every pitch. To continue with the car analogy, the Royals are buying a Ferrari without getting the Carfax. That analysis would cost $199 at the University of Missouri’s lab, far less than the loss of even one start of a minimum-salary player like Ventura. 

If Ventura really is going to miss only one start, he’ll have limited rest. He would need to be back on a mound shortly after his missed start, doing side work to keep himself in shape. With limited time to beat the inflammation and none to make any mechanical changes, the Royals must either believe this is very minor or have reached new levels of self-delusion. 

Ventura will not go on the disabled list now, but this is a low-risk move. The Royals will retain the possibility of placing him on the DL at any time, with a retroactive move to Tuesday. Ventura is too good to drop in any format, so wait and see is the only move. 

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What good is talent to a fantasy owner who lacks timing?

Fantasy baseball—just like the real thing—is a game of skill, luck and timing. That last trait, in particular, comes in handy in regard to getting value in the trading game.

Knowing which player(s) to trade away and which to deal for—and knowing just the right time to do so—can make all the difference.

After all, it doesn’t get much better than making a move to unload a hot flavor-of-the-week type who’s about to cool off in exchange for a slumping stud who’s ready to take off.

Now, speaking of timing, let’s get to some players to sell high and buy low.

Statistics are accurate through May 22 and come from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, except where otherwise noted.

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The Washington Nationals have lost Gio Gonzalez for the next few weeks. The Cy Young contender has what the Nationals are calling soreness and inflammation in his pitching shoulder and will give him time to let that calm down, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.

Gonzalez was diagnosed after having an “enhanced MRI.” This is another term for a contrast MRI, which is a normal tool for orthopaedists. A dye is injected into the joint, allowing for a clearer view of the structures, as the video here shows. The Nats said there was no structural damage seen on the enhanced MRI.

So we know what it’s not, but pain and inflammation don’t just happen. Gonzalez has something wrong inside his pitching shoulder, and absent a structural cause, the usual diagnosis is either impingement or bursitis. Bursitis could be easily seen on a contrast MRI, so it’s safe to assume that the Nats aren’t playing word games with us. 

Add in another piece of evidence, in that Gonzalez told the Washington Post that he was having trouble finding a consistent arm slot, the lean would be to impingement. That indicates a generalized inflammation that is causing some of the structures inside the shoulder to be restricted from their normal movement or even squeezed inside the shoulder.

With Gonzalez on the disabled list, the Nats will go to work trying to remove the inflammation. Rest and treatment should get him more comfortable and at the point where he can get back on the mound; the hope is that his arm will comfortably go back to its natural position. Oddly, comparing his last two starts, it appears that Gonzalez was actually raising his release point, which is opposite of what a pitcher normally does when his shoulder is sore.

The Nats historically have issues keeping their pitchers healthy. While the team was actually in the top 10 for the first time since moving to Washington in terms of injury stats last year, their back in their normal spot early this year. The team has lost about $19.3 million worth of value so far this season. In terms of pure days lost, they’re near the bottom again. (Data from my proprietary Injury Database.)

Losing Gonzalez for a short period of time shouldn’t devastate the Nationals, but their overall problems with health are one reason that they consistently underperform their expectations and talent. 

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Rehab timelines aren’t very flexible. Physical therapists work through a protocol and when an athlete can do all the necessary tasks, they move on to the next one. If they can’t, they repeat. Where things get a bit more flexible is once an athlete is past the rehab timeline and into the return timeline. That’s where Matt Harvey is now and that fact has oddly put the New York Mets in a tough position.

Matt Harvey is ready to throw from a mound. In a perfect world, he’d be starting a rehab assignment sometime in late June or early July. That would put him on track for a return around Aug. 1, enough time to get the “six or seven starts” Harvey told Tom Verducci of SI.com he would like to make. This would be very akin to the return of Stephen Strasburg a couple seasons ago, something of a cameo appearance that gave equal parts confidence and a tease for potential season-ticket holders.

Where things get odd is that the Mets don’t want to see Harvey back at Citi Field this season. The team long since decided that their goal is to have Harvey back at full strength for 2015, not just pitching at the tail end of 2014. The Mets’ brain trust is an intriguing combination of old-school and new-school baseball minds, but they are also very data-driven and have shown that they are willing to take a long-term focus.

Harvey is pushing to return at just 10 months after surgery, which is on the low end of return timetables, but is certainly not unheard of. The Mets are more comfortable seeing him at the far end, about 12 months, which would actually push his return into the offseason. That would make his actual return come at 18 months, giving him a full, normal offseason program and a full, normal spring training routine. 

There’s a hint in Harvey’s interview with the New York Post that his agent, Scott Boras, is against the quicker return, but Boras has never pushed himself into discussions like this in the past. While Boras isn’t hesitant to make his positions known to teams or his clients, hinting that he’s going to be a problem here has no history.

Harvey does say there are going to be changes when he returns, whenever that is. He’s put on some weight due to relaxing his workouts and he’s not going to do his full-go bullpen sessions that left him in a lather and his catchers icing their sore hand. 

Whatever version of Harvey we see later this year, there’s certain to be some tension about whether he’s going to make it back to the Mets this season. He’ll get some good crowds to Coney Island and Las Vegas, to be sure, but Harvey wants to pitch in the Big Apple. We’ll see whether that happens soon enough, once we see when he starts a rehab assignment.

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The news came from Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Joey Votto, the Cincinnati Reds star first baseman, stayed in Cincinnati for an MRI and a consultation with team physician Dr. Tim Kremchek rather than joining the team at the start of a six-game road trip.

The finding was that Votto has a strain in his distal quad, the part of the thigh muscles nearest to the knee. The injury is to Votto‘s left leg, the same one he had two surgeries on in 2012. The team will take the next few days to see how he responds to treatment and rest before making a decision about the disabled list.

The diagnosis of the Grade I strain is a positive given earlier indications of a knee problem, but it’s not good either. There is very clearly an issue with his movement pattern, and the injury will affect the stable base that Votto needs in order to hit well in his manner. It could be a discrete injury, but there has to be concern that the previous knee problems have caused changes that led to a cascade injury. 

In 2012, Votto had a simple meniscus tear. He had a meniscectomy and, during rehab, took things a bit too fast, leading to a need to go back in and repair the knee a second time. Votto struggled when he returned because he had a hard time finding a stable base for his swing. The extreme loss of power is certainly a worry in the short term with this latest injury.

The Reds medical staff will use all of their available modalities to help Votto, but most of this is going to be about his healing response. Votto has a tendency to be very reticent about injuries, trying to play through them until his performance has suffered, then trying to get back too quickly. If Votto shows some healing over the weekend, the Reds may try to let him come back with some restrictions. If they decide that he’d be better served by more time, they won’t hesitate to push him to the DL. 

With Votto‘s giant contract hanging over his head and potentially becoming a major issue for the Reds if his production drops, this latest knee problem is a major concern. At worst, Votto is beginning to have degenerative changes in his knee, which would likely reduce his availability and production. Votto had a major drop-off in power once he returned from surgery in 2012, and that could become permanent.

Votto has had a disappointing season, as pointed out by Cincinnati radio host Lance McAllister. Some of that may be due to the knee, especially if he has been trying to play through this. However, there’s been no real sign that Votto is having problems. He’s not a speed guy and has a lumbering gait when healthy, so this may have been impossible to see. 

The Reds are already without Jay Bruce, who recently had knee surgery to correct a similar problem. The fact that the team has two such similar injuries in a short period of time could be coincidence, but there’s also the possibility that there’s an issue with the movement patterns they are using. That’s unlikely given the stability in support and medical staff, but it’s something I’m sure the team is checking.

While Votto is out, the team will give Neftali Soto a look, with Brayan Pena being another possibility. Neither is a fantasy option, and both are a major downgrade at the position for the Reds.

Votto shouldn’t be out much longer than the 15-day minimum in the worst-case scenario, so the Reds will simply have to try to get offense elsewhere in the short term. Bryan Price, the new manager of the Reds, will have to show how adaptable he is offensively while missing his two biggest bats.

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The darkest timeline has arrived with Community reaching its inevitable end after five incredibly bizarre seasons of television.

The unconventional NBC cult comedy managed to survive through five seasons, a solid run run for a show with poor ratings that constantly defied typical sitcom conventions and expectations. Unfortunately, Dan Harmon’s show fell one season shy of its “six seasons and a movie” rallying cry.

Viewers either revered in following the absurd happenings of Greendale Community College, or they left without the slightest clue of what they just watched. Safe to say, the author writing an ode to Community through the platform of fantasy baseball loved it.

Like Troy Barnes, I’m struggling to contain my composure over the devastating news. When losing something so near and dear, the best way to stay sane is to focus on another passion.

For me, that’s of course fantasy baseball. Many of the lessons taught by the dysfunctional study group apply to our game, although most of the characters would likely have objected to doing a fantasy baseball episode.

Protagonist Jeff Winger would undoubtedly claim to be too cool to spend his time with us number nerds. Britta Perry would protest the game on account of players getting treated like objects rather than human beings. Annie Edison would go crazy when her team dropped to fifth place in May, and Shirley Bennett would probably call all competition a sin.

Troy would get disappointed when fantasy baseball wasn’t baseball played by wizards and dragons, but he might get on board when Abed Nadir embraced the sports movie and TV homage and pretended to lead his fake team like Coach Taylor.

Harmon has covered everything else, so why not a fantasy baseball theme? If you still have no idea what Community is, go and binge watch now, with a heavy focus on Seasons 2 and 3. If not, well just skim ahead to the baseball analysis. 

Cool? Cool cool cool. 

Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.

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The Miami Marlins got quite the shock on Monday. Jose Fernandez was sent to Los Angeles for an MRI to check his elbow. According to Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network, the diagnosis was a sprained elbow. That diagnosis specifically points to UCL involvement. The UCL is the ligament replaced in Tommy John surgery.

Naturally, the Marlins are very concerned. After his MRI, Fernandez was sent back to Miami to consult with team physicians. The team is worried, as indicated here:

The trip to Los Angeles is guided by the Marlins being on the West Coast. It is commonly believed but unconfirmed that Fernandez was sent to the world-famous Kerlan-Jobe Clinic. While he could have had the MRI anywhere, Los Angeles Dodgers team physician Neal ElAttrache is one of the most respected surgeons in the game and could give a consult. Baseball teams do not travel with their own doctors and often use those of other teams in similar circumstances.

Fernandez, who finished third in last year’s Cy Young voting, has only pitched 220 innings in the major leagues and had only 26 starts in the minor leagues, as he dominated at every level he stopped at. While Fernandez was born in Cuba, he lived in South Florida and went to a U.S. high school, where he was scouted closely throughout much of his career.

Like most pitchers, there are no good stats on how much he was used in high school or for travel teams, but he was someone who showed up at many of the showcase events with his plus velocity. There is no evidence that Fernandez was overused at any level. Fernandez has even been praised for his pitch efficiency.

Fernandez has plus velocity, though he is certainly not solely reliant on it, as Troy Tulowitzki recently found out. His mix of pitches is almost identical to last year. His velocity had been consistent, but in the fifth inning of his last game, it appeared to have taken a major drop down. This could be where the injury happened.

Fernandez has none of the red flags we normally look for. He has no high-innings totals and was all but shut down at the end of his rookie season by the Marlins. He has no games with excessive pitch counts. Few point to any mechanical issues, though Chris O’Leary suggests that Fernandez has changed his mechanics. 

If Fernandez is found to have a sprained UCL, it will be further proof that all the standard things that teams currently do to protect pitchers aren’t working. Fernandez isn’t yet locked into the path that too many pitchers are headed, losing a year of his young career to surgery and rehab, but we have to wonder what more has to happen before baseball changes its approach.

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