Bleacher Report didn’t ask for my opinion on the 2014 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, but my readers did. So, here they are by position.
This slideshow outlines the rankings I used to select my 2014 Tout Wars team in New York City on Saturday, March 22 at the Sirius/XM studio.
Here are the Tout Wars official results from the AL-only, NL-only, 15-team mixed and online draft leagues. Also, a collection of the Touts review their teams here.
The story this week has been pitching injuries, but while the outbreak of Tommy John across the league got headlines, it’s not unusual. Tommy John surgery is happening more and more. Remember, David Wells, a player from the not-too-distant past, may have been one of the first 10 MLB players to have the surgery.
The acceleration has come to the point where we’ll likely have 10 this week. It’s more than just the MLB players as well. There are several minor leaguers who will head to Birmingham, Ala. or Los Angeles for surgery and more college and high school pitchers alongside them.
I asked Dr. Tim Kremchek of the Reds how many Tommy John surgeries he did last year, and it was nearly 100. Add in the other surgeons that do the bulk of MLB Tommy John procedures, and we’re looking not at a problem but an industry.
We’ve accepted it, to some extent. There’s a moment of sadness when we see a pitcher like Jarrod Parker lose another year to an injury, but we forget about it quickly.
This week’s outbreak hasn’t led to any discussion of changes. Bud Selig isn’t announcing a bold research initiative. Some team spent more money on a computer than the whole league will spend on sports medicine. If that’s how baseball is going to be, we’re going to have a lot more weeks like this and a lot more pitchers missing years. That’s bad for baseball.
For now, let’s look around the league…
As we inch closer to Major League Baseball’s Opening Day, the excitement builds. You have likely already drafted or it’s in your immediate future. Every team in the league is tied for first.
It’s the perfect time to make predictions. Here’s the Lester’s Legends prediction for the statistical leader in each of the five-by-five-league fantasy baseball categories.
Here’s a look at the 2014 Lester’s Legends’ closer rankings for AL-only fantasy baseball leagues.
1. Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Koji Uehara was nearly flawless during the Red Sox’s World Series run. He racked up 21 saves, a 1.09 ERA, a 0.57 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 74.1 innings.
2. Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Greg Holland had 47 saves, a 1.21 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and 103 strikeouts in 67 innings. He had a ridiculous 0.56 ERA after the All-Star break.
3. Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers
Joe Nathan had 43 saves, a 1.39 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and 73 strikeouts in 64.2 innings. He has 341 saves and a 2.76 ERA throughout his career.
4. Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Glen Perkins had 36 saves, a 2.30 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and 77 strikeouts in 62.2 innings. An improved rotation should work in his favor.
5. David Robertson, New York Yankees
David Robertson has huge shoes to fill, but he’s got the goods. Robertson had a 2.04 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and 77 strikeouts in 66.1 innings last year.
6. Jim Johnson, Oakland A’s
Jim Johnson combined for 101 saves over the past two seasons with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP while pitching his home games in Camden Yards. Moving to Oakland should be a positive change.
7. Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Ernesto Frieri collected 37 saves last year while posting a 3.80 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP and 98 strikeouts in 68.2 innings. He should provide a solid saves total and a tremendous K/9 ratio.
8. Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Casey Janssen saved 34 games last year while posting a 2.56 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and 50 strikeouts in 52.2 innings. In 2012, he saved 22 with a 2.54 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP and 67 strikeouts in 63.2 innings.
9. Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays
Grant Balfour has averaged 31 saves and 72 strikeouts the past two years while posting a 2.56 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He should do well in his return to Tampa.
10. Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners
Fernando Rodney has averaged 42.5 saves and 79 strikeouts the past two years while posting a 1.91 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. His move to Seattle should be favorable.
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Atlanta Braves pitcher Kris Medlen is headed for Tommy John surgery, according to MLB.com. The same is true for the A’s ace, Jarrod Parker. It’s also true for Brandon Beachy, who follow Corey Luebke and Daniel Hudson.
While this is all too common among pitchers at all levels, all of them are headed through the process for a second time.
He previously had the surgery after rupturing his ulnar collateral ligament in 2010. Medlen made it back and excelled both in the rotation and the bullpen. His ascension to dominant starter was surprising and occasionally attributed to his Tommy John surgery, though there is absolutely no evidence that he or any other pitcher has seen a performance gain from the procedure.
Facing a second procedure, Medlen faces the same year away from the game and grueling yearlong rehab. Many Braves fans are asking whether or not he faces the same sort of potential when he returned. Second replacements are called revisions by surgeons and are rare in terms of surgery. Only a handful of specialists like James Andrews, Neal ElAttrache, and Tim Kremchek will do more than a few of these.
Medlen is hardly alone. Brandon Beachy is also headed for a second Tommy John surgery, adding to the long list of Braves trekking from Atlanta to Dr. James Andrews’ office. Add in Patrick Corbin from the Arizona Diamondbacks and Jarrod Parker, who would also be having a second surgery and had his first while with the Diamondbacks, to the list of recently injured pitchers.
There’s not much in the way of evidence or even anecdote, but what we know gives us a good look at Medlen’s future. He should be able to return sometime in early 2015 and there’s no physical reason why he couldn’t return to the Braves rotation and even return to his previous level of performance.
While Tommy John surgery allows a player to come back, it doesn’t make them invulnerable. In fact, it’s the coming back that is likely the problem. Pitchers, especially mature and successful pitchers, aren’t likely to make significant mechanical changes. Do the same thing and you’ll get the same result, which, for these pitchers, was a ruptured ligament.
It’s important to note that this is not a failure of the surgery, the rehab or even the pitcher. This is like blaming the car for a tire going bald. It’s a recurrence of a problem with a known etiology. Calling this a failure demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of the procedure.
It’s easy to suggest biomechanics should be changed, that hip and shoulder strength and flexibility could be augmented, but it’s much harder to tell a multi-million dollar pitcher to change what has made him successful.
On top of that, the use of biomechanics is spotty at best in the major leagues. Even with the use, teams don’t have a perfect prediction system.
One of the teams that uses biomechanics extensively is the Baltimore Orioles. In spite of this and several other factors, the Orioles lost prize pitching prospect Dylan Bundy for a year after he injured his elbow last season. He had Tommy John surgery and should be back this summer. Most teams ignore biomechanics altogether, including the Braves.
So even if we don’t know the force that Medlen, Bundy or many individual pitchers are exerting on their elbows on each and every pitch, we do know that there’s clear evidence that the ligament broke down, either insidiously or traumatically. Given the same tasks, similar force and any other significant changes, a transplanted ligament is likely to break down again after a period of time.
One thing we do not know for any pitcher is how much their ulnar collateral ligament can handle. There’s simply no way to know this, though we know that it will be significantly different for every pitcher, just as they exert different forces in their pitching motion. Some pitchers are likely to have “weak” ligaments and some have strong, making the same force give different results.
There is a “Tommy John honeymoon,” a period after the surgery where it appears there is a significantly lower risk of damaging the replaced ligament. Studies have shown that over a period of four to five years, the transplanted tendon becomes a ligament. However, remember that there’s at least a chance that the pitcher’s ligament was structurally unable to handle the load of pitching. A strong harvested tendon helps, but at a cellular level, will change.
Medlen was inside the normal “honeymoon” period, so it would be interesting to know what Dr. Andrews will find inside his elbow. Was the transplanted tendon fully ligamentized? Was his natural ligament weaker? No pitcher is going to let a surgeon open up the non-dominant side to check.
The surgery for a revision is different as well. It’s not substantially different in technique, but requires some changes. The bone has already been drilled for the previous ligament replacement, but new holes are required. There’s less space for that, as well as further damage and “mileage” on the elbow.
The upside is that the player has been through the process before. He’s not likely to be surprised by anything in the rehab and understands the effort and patience necessary. As long as the player is not struggling on a performance level and is not advanced in age, there’s little to show currently that a revision is less successful than an original.
A recent study published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine and conducted by the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic focused on the rate of return from Tommy John surgery. Previous studies peg the number anywhere from about 75 percent up to 87 percent. This recent study shows that only five players out of 179 did not return to play.
Dr. Neal ElAttrache, a Kerlan-Jobe surgeon and team physician for the Los Angeles Dodgers, told me in a phone conversation that the return rate doesn’t surprise him. “The surgery itself isn’t the problem any more. It fixes something that was previous career ending and gives the player a chance to come back and play at the same level.”
The study is clear that there is no performance boost and there may be a bigger cost. Currently, there are no pitchers in the Hall of Fame that have had Tommy John surgery. John Smoltz is likely to be the first in the next couple years, but behind him, there’s not much coming.
Adam Wainwright is the most likely, with almost no one else “on pace.” Pitchers like Chris Carpenter, AJ Burnett and Joe Nathan simply don’t have Hall of Fame numbers and little time to accumulate them.
I spoke with Jay Jaffe from SI.com, who has done extensive work on quantifying Hall of Famers. Jaffe believes that there are three factors holding back Tommy John pitchers (including Tommy John himself!) from being inducted. The first is that the BBWAA has been stingy in electing pitchers, putting in only 15 since 1981.
The second is that durability is key to getting to huge numbers, like 300 wins. Of the pitchers that have hit major milestones, few have had major surgeries, with only Roger Clemens having a major surgery, though he missed almost no time after it.
Finally, Jaffe believes that because the operation was done so seldom into the mid-1990s, there were fewer opportunities. I agree, but I’m focused on the second with the dearth of likely Hall of Famers coming.
There are a number of players that have had two Tommy John surgeries, or even more. The “record” is five, but Jose Rijo is a special case and several of the failures were caused by external forces rather than being an actual redo. Nine current players, including Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Chris Capuano, Jason Frasor and Kyle Drabek have had two.
While it may appear that there are few starters that have returned after a repeat Tommy John, it’s still a small sample size. Since relievers tend to be max effort pitchers, one theory is that they are more likely to do a traumatic sprain of the repaired ligament. There simply haven’t been any studies done, though anecdotally this matches up with surgical findings.
As more pitchers have the surgery when they are younger, the two will collide and could open up the possibility that we see an explosion of second and third revisions. How baseball as a whole deals with this could be one of the most important sports medicine decisions they make in the next decade.
Medlen’s revision will not make him invulnerable any more than the first surgery did. If he continues to put too much force on the elbow, it will break down again. However, there’s no reason to believe that he will not be able to return. The last decade of sports medicine research shows us that.
As a symbol, Medlen and the other pitchers headed to operating tables remind us that as a whole, baseball doesn’t know how to prevent arm injuries. A decade plus of pitch counts, cautious progressions and long toss have not reduced pitching injuries one iota. It’s time to step back and maybe even start over, or else get used to seeing the best pitchers heading to surgery time and again.
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Let’s flashback one year. After only 11 starts in Double-A, the Marlins announce that a 20-year-old named Jose Fernandez will break camp with the big league squad. Most had predicted perhaps a late-season call-up for Fernandez as the extent of his time spent in Miami for the 2013 campaign.
Now to the current day, where Fernandez is just two-and-a-half-weeks away from taking the ball on Opening Day as the reigning NL Rookie of the Year as part of a sensational season in which he placed second in Cy Young voting. He is, simply, one of the top pitchers in the sport.
No one can question what the Cuban defect pulled off last year, but what does that mean in terms of fantasy value in 2014? Where should he be picked? Is regression inevitable? Can he somehow improve in his sophomore year? Here’s the answer: If you’re looking to make a splash in your league, don’t be afraid to reach for Fernandez as he could definitely wind up being a bonafide steal.
Fernandez is 53rd in ESPN.com’s Fantasy Rankings and 33rd in Yahoo’s preseason projections, while his ADP (average draft position) is slightly lower than that at 37. The only real knock on Fernandez is that most are predicting somewhat of a sophomore slump after a rookie year that included a 2.19 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and a 9.75 K/9 rate. After all, how many 21 year olds can realistically be expected to improve upon those figures?
However, there is reason to suggest that Fernandez can do just that. He was significantly better in the season’s second half than its first. Based on these visuals from Fangraphs, Fernandez improved in almost every respect compared to the league average as the season progressed. This means that even though teams were acquiring more and more film on Fernandez, he was bucking the trend of rookies struggling to adjust as the league gets a second and third look at them.
ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) also suggests not to assume Fernandez is bound to slip. His early success has not gone to his head, and Fernandez’s home division is not one known for its offensive dominance.
I get that Fernandez is young and you might expect some regression. Or, he could be like the young Dwight Gooden, who quickly jumped from great to the most dominant pitcher in baseball, throwing fastballs and curveballs. Word from the Marlins is that they love his work ethic, and while he is known to have favored-nation status from owner Jeffrey Loria, the staff hasn’t seen a diva developing.
One more thing: Fernandez pitches in arguably the most offensively challenged division in the majors, and four of the five home parks—those of the Mets, Nationals, Braves and Marlins—are viewed as places that generally foster good pitching. Not that he needs help.
Beyond his pure statistical dominance, Fernandez also would appear to have a ton of value in fantasy amongst the top starting pitchers. The starting hurlers who ESPN has ranked above Fernandez are as follows: Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Chris Sale and Madison Bumgarner.
To rank 10 different pitchers above Fernandez seems like a high total. One could make the case that of the group listed above, only three (Kershaw, Darvish and Scherzer) had a better 2013 than Fernandez. In the second half of the year (where we’ve already established the righty really emerged as a monster), none of those three had a lower WHIP, ERA, Opponents’ Batting Average Against or Opponents’ On-Base Plus Slugging than Fernandez.
For those that fancy sabermetrics, Fernandez stacks up quite nicely there as well. Of that group, only Kershaw, Hernandez and Wainwright had a higher DIPS, or Defense Independent ERA. Only Kershaw, who was the sole pitcher to finish ahead of Fernandez in NL Cy Young voting (of course), finished with a lower Component ERA, which predicts ERA based on walks and hits allowed rather than actual runs allowed. Confusing, I know, but basically Fernandez was as good as any pitcher last year, including Kershaw.
It’s also hard to argue with Fernandez’s impressive array of pitches. Few, if any, hurlers have three extremely strong options in their repertoire as does Fernandez. His fastball, curveball and slider are all plus-pitches that he can dominate with. See below:
Fernandez might very well be on his way to being labeled a top-five pitcher in the league by the end of the year. Reach for him. You’ll thank me later.
All statistics used are from ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
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Here’s a look at the 2014 Lester’s Legends’ Starting Pitcher Rankings for NL-only fantasy baseball leagues:
1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw is 51-23 over the past three years with a 2.21 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He has also averaged 236.3 strikeouts per season over that stretch. He’s the best pitcher in the game, period.
2. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Adam Wainwright went 19-9 with a 2.94 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 219 strikeouts in 2013. Yep, he’s all the way back after his Tommy John surgery.
3. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Stephen Strasburg went 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 191 strikeouts in 183 innings last season. He’s still a bit of an injury risk, but he certainly has the goods if he can stay healthy.
4. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
Madison Bumgarner has gone 42-33 over the past three years with a 3.12 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 193.7 strikeouts per season. I expect him to take the next step this year in the elite class.
5. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
Cliff Lee is just 37-25 over the past three years with Philadelphia, but he has a 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and an average of 222.3 strikeouts per year.
6. Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
Jose Fernandez went 12-6 as a rookie in 2013 with a 2.19 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 187 strikeouts in 172.2 innings. He has worked hard on conditioning this offseason to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump.
7. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
Cole Hamels had a rough season last year, going 8-14, but he still managed to post a 3.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 202 strikeouts. Over the past four seasons, he’s 51-40 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and an average of 205.8 strikeouts per season.
8. Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
Zack Greinke went 15-4 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 148 strikeouts in 177.2 innings in 2013. Over the past three years, he’s 46-15 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and an average of 183 strikeouts per season.
9. Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
Last year, Gio Gonzalez shook off the Biogenesis allegation, avoided suspension and posted a 11-8 record with a 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 192 strikeouts in 195.2 innings. Over the past three years, he’s gone 48-28 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 198.7 strikeouts per season.
10. Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
Jordan Zimmermann has averaged just 146 strikeouts over the past three seasons, but he’s 39-28 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
11. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
A down year (8-10, 4.00 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 158 K) for Cain is still a solid season, aside from the win total. Cain has a lifetime ERA of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.17, so he should rebound in 2014.
12. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Homer Bailey went 11-12 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 199 strikeouts in 2013. In fact, he went 6-4 over his final 13 starts with a 3.02 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 78 strikeouts in 86.1 innings.
13. Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds
In 2013, Mat Latos went 14-7 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 187 strikeouts. Over the past four seasons, he’s gone 51-35 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
14. Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
Gerrit Cole went 10-7 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 117.1 innings as a rookie last season, which is quite impressive.
15. Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
Mike Minor went 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 181 strikeouts in 2013. At just 26 years old, he should continue to improve.
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Texas Rangers first baseman Prince Fielder had a down year with the Detroit Tigers in 2013. Regardless, he was still one of the most productive first basemen in baseball. Many players would settle for a .279/25/106 slash line, .362 on-base percentage and .457 slugging.
If batting average, home runs, runs batted in, OBP and SLG are a fantasy baseball team’s five major offensive categories, Fielder is a solid choice at first base.
Some might be hesitant to draft Fielder due to his underwhelming (by his standards) 2013. He hit .313/30/108 with a monster .412 OBP and .528 SLG the year prior.
According to ESPN Fantasy Baseball, Fielder will post a .300/35/113 slash line this season. The projection considers 2013 to be a bump in the road rather than the beginning of a decline.
Fielder will play half of his games at the hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, TX. He raked in Miller Park throughout his six full seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers from 2006 to 2011, including a 50-home run season in 2007. Expect Fielder’s power numbers to improve dramatically in Texas.
He has a career .286 batting average, .389 OBP and .527 SLG. Even if he under performs, he is still a productive first baseman.
Spring training does not count towards the regular season, but he flexed on February 27 with a long home run.
There was also nothing cheap about Fielder’s last homer in a Tigers uniform on September 22, 2013.
Or this three-run jack on July 24, 2013.
Fielder can be relied upon to play a full season. Since 2006, he has never played less than 157 games per year.
With Shin-Soo Choo and Elvis Andrus hitting in front of him, Fielder is almost guaranteed to drive in at least 100 runs. Choo is coming off a .423 OBP season with the Cincinnati Reds and Andrus has a career .339 OBP. The Rangers will eat if they can set the table for Fielder.
Turning 30 this season, Fielder is highly capable of another monster year. Miguel Cabrera—undisputedly the best choice at first base and arguably overall—and Paul Goldschmidt are sure to be high picks. But don’t sleep on Fielder.
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There is no such thing as a five-man rotation anymore. Looking around the league, teams are planning ahead for injuries to their pitchers to determine how deep they can go, packing in seven or eight guys rather than trying to prevent injuries or shorten up the rotation. A great example of this is the Atlanta Braves, a team that is already suffering through injuries to Mike Minor, Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy, as well as a known issue with new acquisition Gavin Floyd.
The Braves announced Tuesday morning that an MRI on Medlen showed “ligament involvement.” Given that Medlen had Tommy John surgery in 2010, this is not a good sign. Dave O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution had more info:
While Medlen will have more tests, many speculate that he will need a second replacement of his UCL. Leo Mazzone, a former Braves pitching coach, was on 680 The Fan in Atlanta and said, “Any ligament involvement is bad.” Medlen does not have a complete tear (rupture) of the ligament, though it is also more difficult to read the ligament after the replacement, due both to physical changes and the hardware used.
What the Braves have now is a mess. If the season were to start today, the most likely scenario would have Freddy Garcia as the second starting pitcher and Alex Wood, who would be the bullpen lefty in a perfect world, would shift over to be the third man in the starting rotation. Behind them, the Braves would have to get creative, with prospect Cody Martin being the top possibility.
That not only puts pressure on the back of the rotation, it puts a ton of pressure on the ace-by-default Julio Teheran. The young pitcher only went 185 innings last season, and to expect much more than 200 would be stretching things. While Teheran does project as a potential ace, the Braves also have to protect him in the first season where he’ll jump the 190-innings hurdle.
That one, more than any other mark, is a real test for pitchers. While 200 innings is used more because it’s a round number, my research from 2003 showed that 190 seemed to be the bigger test. Pitchers that stayed above that mark tended to do it year after year, but once they dropped below it, even by a little, it was tough to come back. There are a lot of pitchers who never make that mark, though they can be very productive otherwise.
A team goes into a season planning for 1,500 innings. The season is set to be 1,458, but there’s extra-innings games and maybe the playoffs, so 1,500 is a good number. For starters, the team needs to get somewhere between 900 and 1,000 innings. Having five 200-inning pitchers is unlikely, so a team either needs one or two to go above the mark, for the bullpen to take more of the load or for the load to be distributed over more than five pitchers.
Given the situation now, general manager Frank Wren and his team are likely looking at all the options. Panic is a poor negotiating position, but when the plan for depth that they had—signing Garcia and Floyd to protect younger pitchers like Martin—has failed in mid-March, every other team is going to know the situation. I imagine that scouts are already watching the back fields at Disney for an ask.
Many are wondering if the Braves will make a last-minute offer for Ervin Santana, the last solid free-agent pitcher on the market. After firing his agent, Santana has received several offers and was strongly linked to the Blue Jays. While Santana has a preference to stay in the AL, the Braves could be forced to up their offer and make him consider Atlanta.
Others are asking whether Wren will hit the trade market. There’s very little available, with crazy Twitter ideas coming fast and furious. Options like David Price and Jeff Samardzija have been mentioned, but neither the Rays nor the Cubs would give up either of their aces without a ridiculous return, something the Braves just don’t have, even if they were willing to add on to a package starting with Christian Bethancourt. A major trade would gut the team’s system, though the Braves could give a lower-level prospect for a more ready pitcher.
On pure stats, the Braves had a terrible 2013. They ranked 27th out of 30 teams, losing over 1,500 days to the DL. For pitchers, it was over half the total, with four pitchers losing more than 100 days each. That is significantly up from losing pitcher totals in the 500-day range in the 2011 and 2012 seasons.
Most of those major losses was to Tommy John surgery. While many say it’s unavoidable, the sheer numbers that the Braves have had demand some attention. Compare having multiple pitchers in various stages of rehab to the Rays, a team that’s had three Tommy John surgeries in the past decade. Yes, it’s possible to reduce injuries, though it requires a serious commitment.
As I mentioned earlier, one of the possibilities for filling in behind the injured starters is to transfer some of the load to the pen.
For the Braves, that may not work either. They already have Jonny Venters rehabbing to return and had lost Eric O’Flaherty to Tommy John as well, though O’Flaherty signed with the Oakland A’s this offseason despite his status. The Braves pen has more depth, even if Wood gets shifted to the rotation, but the pitchers are young and untested—precisely the type of pen that a team shouldn’t shift the load to if there’s another option.
In fact, more of this pen may need to be shifted over. Wirfin Obispo is fighting for a pen slot, but at age 29, he might be pushed to make a couple spot starts. The same is true for David Hale, who has the advantage of having worked as a starter for much of last season at Triple-A Gwinnett. Besides Cody Martin, the bulk of the Braves’ pitching prospects are in the low minors, making that a tougher shift.
Some of this may recall the Toronto Blue Jays. For over a decade, the Jays have had a terrible time keeping pitchers healthy. Their medical staff is well regarded, but pitchers at all levels and of all types end up with all sorts of arm issues. It’s a major hole in their plans and has held them back by causing depth issues and taking out some top prospects from longer-term usage.
The Braves are also well regarded, but their pitching problems have seemingly been coming to a head over the past few seasons.
One source I spoke with believes that the pitching program the Braves use is at fault. “You can’t look right at when Leo Mazzone left. That’s been too far out, but his influence and his program has faded. There’s probably no one left that worked with him,” I was told Monday.
There are no easy solutions here, though the Braves are looking at all possibilities. The team has not been progressive in regard to biomechanics, but the Braves do use video heavily to assess pitchers. My source also told me that the team is willing to get creative with organizing its staff and would consider a four-man rotation if it felt that was the best way to get through the season.
Frank Wren and skipper Fredi Gonzalez have a big task ahead of them. It’s hard enough to build a pitching staff in modern baseball. It’s even harder to rebuild one on the fly.
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Here’s a look at the 2014 Lester’s Legends’ shortstop rankings for AL-only fantasy baseball leagues.
1. Jose Reyes, Toronto Blue Jays
Jose Reyes was limited to 96 games, but he hit .296 with 58 runs, 10 home runs, 37 RBI and 15 stolen bases. If he can stay healthy, he will give you a big boost in runs, average and stolen bases.
2. Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
Elvis Andrus hit .271 with 91 runs, 67 RBI and 42 stolen bases. In five seasons, he’s averaging 86.4 runs and 33 stolen bases. The additions of Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder should keep the Rangers offense humming. Look for Andrus to set the table.
3. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians
Asdrubal Cabrera hit just .242 last year, but the .273 lifetime hitter is a solid bet to get on track. Over the past three years, he’s averaged .263 with 74.3 runs, 18.3 home runs, 74.7 RBI and 11.7 stolen bases.
4. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays
Ben Zobrist is another guy with added versatility, as he is also eligible at second base and outfield. He posted a .275-77-12-71-11 line. He doesn’t excel in any one category, but he’s solid across the board.
5. J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles
J.J. Hardy is a solid option if you can sacrifice batting average for power. He has hit .256 over the past three seasons while averaging 75.7 runs, 25.7 home runs and 74.7 RBI.
6. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox
After averaging 17.3 home runs in his first four seasons, Alexei Ramirez has hit just 15 over the past two. While his power has waned, he has made up for it by averaging 25 stolen bases over the past two seasons. He should provide decent numbers across the board. His career average is a .277-71-14-68-16 line.
7. Alcides Escobar, Kansas City Royals
Alcides Escobar is pretty much a one-category performer. Over the past three years, he has hit .260 with an average of 64.7 runs, 4.3 HRs and 50 RBI. He gives you speed, though, as he averaged 27.7 stolen bases during that stretch.
8. Jed Lowrie, Oakland A’s
Jed Lowrie has eligibility at shortstop and second base, which helps his value. He had a .290-80-15-75-1 line last year. He’s a .264 career hitter, though, so regression in his batting average is likely.
9. Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
Xander Bogaerts should have eligibility at both shortstop and third base, which gives him added value. He hit just .250 with seven runs, one home run, five RBI and one stolen base in 18 regular-season games but stepped up his game in the playoffs. Bogaerts hit .296 with nine runs in 12 games en route to a World Series title. In Boston’s potent lineup for a full year, Bogaerts should have a solid year.
10. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels
Erick Aybar hit .271 with 68 runs, six home runs, 54 RBI and 12 stolen bases. He doesn’t offer much power, but over the past five seasons, he’s averaged a .280-69-7-49-20 line. He should give you a solid batting average and stolen base total.
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