Tag: Fantasy

Under the Knife: Harper’s Knee, Weaver’s Elbow, Buchholz’s Shoulder and More

There’s more than enough injuries to fill 20 slides this week. Big injuries to big names are good for my job security but bad for the game. Missing Bryce Harper, Clay Buchholz or David Price costs teams wins and dollars, but beyond that, the lack of effort in prevention and research is problematic for the future of the game. 

The old quote from Joe DiMaggio—”There is always some kid who may be seeing me for the first or last time, I owe him my best”—holds true here. Fans do come to see Harper play like his hair is on fire or to see the smooth swing of Ryan Braun. That they’re missing games means that fans are missing out. 

The doctors and athletic trainers around baseball are doing all they can, but they’re not given much support. The owners seem content to lose billions of dollars to the DL. Quick, tell me the last MLB-funded research initiative that you read about. (If you have one, please drop it in the comments because aside from the ongoing work on pitcher head protection, I can’t think of one from the last 18 months.) 

There’s another old quote, probably as apocryphal as DiMaggio’s, that billionaires can look as stupid as they want because they can afford it. While true, you have to wonder how long the game can afford it. It’s time that MLB as a whole tackled this issue, making prevention a strategy and letting the findings trickle down to the millions of baseball players at lower levels.

For the injuries that have already happened, let’s get to it.

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Full List of This Week’s 2-Start Pitchers

Getting two starts out of a starting pitcher can make all the difference in a weekly fantasy league. While a one-start ace is still an ace, a two-start ace can single-handedly tip the scales. Additionally, two starts can make an otherwise mediocre spot starter into a difference-maker. This list is broken up by tiers, and rankings are based on skill as well as matchups.

 

The Aces

  • Yu Darvish @ARI, vs. KC
  • Adam Wainwright @KC, vs. SF
  • Justin Verlander vs. PIT, @BAL
  • Matt Harvey vs. NYY, @MIA
  • Chris Sale vs. CHC, @OAK
  • Cliff Lee @BOS, vs. MIL
  • Madison Bumgarner @OAK, @STL
  • James Shields vs. STL, @TEX
  • Gio Gonzalez vs. BAL, @ATL

You would be starting these pitchers regardless. If there is one among these who seems less safe than the rest, it’s James Shields. He faces two good teams in the Cardinals and Rangers (in Arlington, no less). With the Royals’ offensive underperformance, he may be at risk to lose both games, even with good starts. Meanwhile, Chris Sale’s schedule may be the most friendly of this group, but they should all be started without hesitation.

 

The Next Best Things

  • Jeff Samardzija @CWS, vs. ARI
  • Clay Buchholz vs. PHI, @NYY
  • Hiroki Kuroda @NYM, vs. BOS
  • Mat Latos vs. CLE, @PIT
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. LAA, @COL

Unless your fantasy steam is stacked with elite starting pitching, there is no reason to bench these pitchers in any format. None of them have particularly treacherous schedules. The one pitcher on this list who would worry me is Hyun-Jin Ryu. While the Angels have fallen far short of expectations, they still have Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and (such as he is) Josh Hamilton. Ryu then goes to Coors Field to face the Rockies. If you have better options, or a favorable combination of two one-start pitchers, feel free to sit Ryu.

 

Acceptable, if Unexceptional

  • C.J. Wilson @LAD, vs. HOU
  • Jarrod Parker vs. SF, vs. CWS
  • Jose Fernandez @TB, vs. NYM
  • Zack Greinke vs. LAA, @COL
  • Jered Weaver @LAD, vs. HOU
  • Trevor Cahill vs. TEX, @CHC
  • Tim Hudson @TOR, vs. WSH
  • Brandon Morrow vs. ATL, @SD
  • Ervin Santana vs. STL, @TEX

This is a very intriguing group of pitchers. It includes C.J. Wilson, Zack Greinke and Jered Weaver, pitchers who would ordinarily be in one of the first two groups. Wilson has failed to live up to expectations since arriving in Los Angeles, but he gets to face the woeful Dodgers in their pitcher-friendly confines and then the dumpster fire that is the Houston Astros. Greinke and Weaver are returning from injuries and need to establish their health and comfort before returning to the top group.

The other subgroup of note in this list is that of Jarrod Parker and Jose Fernandez, young up-and-comers, each with their own causes for concern. Parker has struggled to follow up his 2012 breakout campaign. Fernandez has shown flashes of brilliance, but he pitches for Miami, making wins hard to come by, and he has seen his workload limited in recent starts, limiting his per-start upside.

 

Matchup Plays

  • Paul Maholm @TOR, vs. WSH
  • Francisco Liriano @DET, vs. CIN
  • Zach McAllister @CIN, vs. TB
  • Jorge De La Rosa @HOU, vs. LAD
  • Carlos Quintana vs. CHC, @OAK
  • Jeremy Hellickson vs. MIA, @CLE
  • Ian Kennedy vs. TEX, @CHC
  • Jonathon Niese  vs. NYY, @MIA
  • Jhoulys Chacin @HOU, vs. LAD

This list is full of pitchers who may have one favorable matchup (Jeremy Hellickson vs. Miami, Ian Kennedy @ Chicago). Feel free to spot start them as needed, but you should not feel obligated to start them blindly just because they have two starts. For instance, Liriano may be worth benching all week based on the expected matchups. If you must plug and play pitchers on this list, Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge De La Rosa possess the most favorable combination of starts, but Carlos Quintana should also produce a pair of useful outings.

 

Deep Leagues Only

  • Ryan Dempster vs. PHI, @NYY
  • Kevin Gausman @WSH, vs. DET
  • Phil Hughes @NYM, vs. BOS
  • Mark Buehrle vs. ATL, @SD
  • Tyler Cloyd @BOS, vs. MIL
  • Ross Detwiler vs. BAL, @ATL
  • Edwin Jackson @CWS, vs. ARI
  • Jake Odorizzi vs. MIA, @CLE
  • Mike Leake vs. CLE, @PIT
  • Dan Straily vs. SF, vs. CWS
  • Kevin Slowey @TB, vs. NYM
  • Tyler Lyons @KC, vs. SF
  • Edinson Volquez @SEA, vs. TOR
  • Ubaldo Jimenez @CIN, vs. TB

Most of these pitchers are available on the waiver wire and some of them are worth adding for one favorable matchup, but they are all combustible and should only be used under dire circumstances. Two pitchers in this group are particularly interesting for different reasons. Ubaldo Jimenez, before getting blasted by Detroit, had three consecutive starts with eight or more strikeouts and two or less runs allowed. His performances this week may prove if that streak was a flash in the pan or proof of some relevant upside.

Additionally, Kevin Gausman has two dangerous starts, but the Orioles top prospect has electric stuff, and if he impresses against the Nationals and Tigers, he may be worth consideration in a wider array of fantasy leagues going forward.

 

Others with Two Starts

  • Hiram Burgos vs. MIN, @PHI
  • Scott Diamond @MIL, vs. SEA
  • Jeanmar Gomez @DET, vs. CIN
  • Jason Hammel @WSH, vs. DET
  • Aaron Harang vs. SD, @MIN
  • Jordan Lyles vs. COL, @LAA
  • Brandon Maurer vs. SD, @MIN
  • Bud Norris vs. COL, @LAA
  • Mike Pelfrey @MIL, vs. SEA
  • Willy Peralta vs. MIN, @PHI
  • Rick Porcello vs. PIT, @BAL
  • Ross Wolf @ARI, vs. KC

Feel free to ignore this group for the most part. Brandon Maurer has a tempting pair of starts, but nothing thus far has made any of these players trustworthy in fantasy leagues.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball: Projecting 2nd-Half Breakout Stars You Should Know About Now

While it’s way too late to buy low on a player that’s already broken out in the first half of the season —Diamondbacks starting pitcher Pat Corbin and Brewers shortstop Jean Segura would be the best examples—plenty more could break out between now and the end of the season. 

If you’re looking for this season’s version of Chris Carter, who had just 17 first-half at-bats in 2012 before hitting 13 homers and knocking in 34 runs after the All-Star break for the Oakland A’s, or Kris Medlen, who didn’t join the Braves rotation until July 31 and then might’ve been the best pitcher in baseball the rest of the way (9-0, 0.97 ERA, 83.2 IP, 57 H, 10 BB, 84 K in 12 starts), consider these eight breakout candidates. 

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Under the Knife: David Price, Bryce Harper, Alex Rodriguez and More

Injuries have continued to plague some of the biggest names in baseball. With David Price the latest Cy Young contender to come up with a sore arm, Bryce Harper bouncing his head off an unprotected section of fencing and Ryan Howard limping again, we can only wonder about the hours that the medical staff is putting in.

And while those good men and women work 18-hour days, we’re left wondering if anyone else seems to care. I’ll pass on stepping back up on my normal soapbox here. You know the next stanza on your own by now. At some point, some team will realize the advantage it can gain.

In the meantime, we’re left trying to find where the advantages are in our own fantasy world. You’ll know if your favorite team is serious about managing injuries, but on a fantasy team, it’s a game of minimization and prediction. The simplest way to gain an advantage is to understand the severity and effects of the inevitable injuries, so let’s get to it.

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Kelly Johnson and Other Legitimate Long-Term Pickups

In the fantasy baseball world, it’s difficult to discern if a player will be scorching hot for a week, a month, or a season.

For example, owners who picked up Edwin Encarnacion in 2012 reaped the benefits for the whole season. Managers who added speedster Jordan Schafer last year bemoaned his awful for the second half.

Of the players who are currently hot pickups, the following will be legitimate contributors to a fantasy roster for the rest of the season. Count on them for production beyond their recent hot streak.

 

Kelly Johnson, TB 2B/OF (73.8 percent owned, 57.4 percent owned increase)

If you need a second baseman and Johnson is still available in your league, make sure you snatch him up before he’s universally owned.

Dating all the way back to his time as an Atlanta Brave, the two-position player has been a solid choice at second. As a Brave in 2008, he hit .287 with 12 homers, 69 RBIs, 86 runs and 11 SBs.

His best fantasy season was 2010, though, when Johnson clubbed 26 home runs and 71 RBIs. That was with a .284 clip, 93 runs and 13 SBs, too.

In 2012 with the Toronto Blue Jays, Johnson hit a meager .225. However, his 2009 season between the aforementioned seasons featured a similar .224 average. Expect him to continue at around the .275 rate he’s hitting this year, as he’s shown the ability to rebound and hit consistently.

On top of average, the Tampa Bay Ray will give you a little speed, runs and good power numbers at second base for the rest of 2013.

 

James Loney, TB 1B (34.1 percent owned, 24.1 percent owned increase)

Another Tampa Bay player made the short list of both hot and smart long-term pickups.

Loney was a top prospect for the Los Angeles Dodgers years ago. His career started fizzling a little in 2012, so the Dodgers traded him to the Boston Red Sox. In Boston, the first baseman hit a forgettable .230 with eight RBIs in 100 at bats.

The Tampa Bay Rays inked Loney to a low-risk deal, and he’s easily outperformed his pay so far. After Monday night, he’s hitting a major league-leading .376.

While the average will definitely drop, Loney is far from a fluke.

With the AAA Las Vegas 51s in 2006, he hit an incredible .380 for the season (according to baseball-reference.com). He has the capability to sustain a high batting average for a whole year, though he hasn’t hit over .300 for a full season in the majors before.

Adrian Beltre, now a career .279 hitter, hadn’t either when he hit a blistering .334 in 2004. It can happen in baseball.

Expect Loney to hit somewhere around .330 for the season, with power numbers on par with his 2008 and 2009 output (13 HRs, 90 RBIs both years).

 

Travis Wood, ChC SP (64.8 percent owned, 35 percent owned increase)

The lovable losers are in the middle of another terrible season, but their rotation (apart from Edwin Jackson) has been incredibly good.

Wood sports the best ERA of any Cubs starter so far this season, with a ridiculous 2.03 after his eighth straight quality start (via the Chicago Tribune).

The young hurler was once the third-best prospect for the Cincinnati Reds (according to BaseballAmerica.com). Wood was acquired by the Cubs in the Sean Marshall trade, and he flashed a lot of potential in a decent 2012 season.

It seems he’s finally lived up to that potential by using an arsenal of pitches.

According to FanGraphs, Wood mostly throws four pitches: a fastball, a slider, a changeup and a very effective cutter.

Wood isn’t a great source of strikeouts (36 Ks in 53.1 IP so far this season), but expect him to have a good ERA and WHIP to go with a decent win total for the Cubs at the end of 2013.

 

*All ownership statistics for ESPN fantasy leagues. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball 2013: Nolan Arenado and Best Pickups Right Now

After just nine days in the show, Nolan Arenado is already becoming a household name in the world of fantasy baseball. 

In fact, if Arenado is still on the waiver wire in your league, stop reading this and go pick him up this instant. 

While Arenado is probably the hottest player flying off waivers, there are plenty of others that are worthy of looks right now as well. 

 

3B Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies 

In just 31 at-bats in the majors, Arenado has 10 hits with three homers and eight RBI. On May 4, he belted a grand slam off of a slider from Tampa Bay Rays ace David Price. 

Arenado is certainly proving himself as one of the best blue-chippers to come out of the minors early in the season. If he’s available in your league, picking him up is a must. 

 

SP Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City Royals

With the Rockies last year, Guthrie had a 6.35 ERA before being traded to the Royals. 

However, this year Guthrie has been a primary reason the Royals are just one game out of first place in the AL Central.

 

Last week, Guthrie pitched his first complete-game shutout of his career to put his record at 4-0 and ERA at 2.40. If Guthrie is still up for grabs in your league, he’s a terrific starter to plug into your rotation for someone who might be struggling out of the gates. 

 

RHP Justin Grimm, Texas Rangers

The AL’s Rookie of the Month for April is certainly worth taking a look at in your league. 

As a reliever, Grimm has been outstanding through the first 30 games of the season. His ERA is 2.28, he has 24 strikeouts and a 2-1 record through just 23.2 innings pitched. 

Like Arenado, Grimm is a rookie playing like a hardened veteran in the early going. If he’s available, he’s worth the waiver pickup. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Under the Knife: Latest MLB Injury Updates

Just look at the names in this week’s UTK and you’ll see the issue. Giancarlo Stanton, Zack Greinke, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Strasburg—these are big-time stars, with most making big time money or carrying the hopes of a franchise on their back.

Instead of being on the field, these players and more are in the training room or worse. The inability of Major League Baseball to keep even their biggest stars healthy is a true indictment of the last decade. Some can’t be helped, but some can, and those opportunities to save money and keep the talent on the field are often being missed.

Let’s take a look around the league to see what’s going on with the biggest names and biggest injuries in another week of Under The Knife:

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Giancarlo Stanton Strains Hamstring: Best-Case, Worst-Case Scenarios for Marlins

Giancarlo Stanton looks like Superman, but injuries have been his kryptonite. On a hustle play in extra innings Monday night, Stanton racked up another injury. This time it is a hamstring strain that could cost Stanton a month or more, depending on the severity.

The Marlins pushed Stanton to the disabled list on Tuesday morning, even before an MRI could be taken. The Marlins medical staff needs to have clear indication that this is a significant strain.

Manual testing, as well as Stanton’s assertion that he heard a pop, indicate at least a Grade II strain. That type of injury will leave what doctors call a “palpable defect,” which means that someone with their hand on Stanton’s leg would be able to feel the hole that the tearing has left in the muscle.

The injury is to his right leg, which is his “power leg” when hitting and the same one he had knee surgery on last season. Stanton was able to come back from that minor knee surgery and showed no issues with his power, so there’s a positive in his ability to return to production. 

If this is a normal Grade II strain, the time frame is usually four to six weeks for a return. Stanton isn’t a speed player and has enough power to deal with a minor deficit in push when he returns. 

However, if this turns out to be a more serious injury, such as a Grade III strain or even just one in a bad location, it could end up effectively ending Stanton’s season. An MRI is scheduled for later on Tuesday to determine just how bad this is, giving us a more distinct timeline soon.

Stanton is joined on the DL by Joe Mahoney, also with a hamstring issue. While Stanton’s injury is the clear, traumatic result of a hustle play, any cluster of injuries has to be noted. The Marlins have often been among the bottom 10 in injury statistics, largely because they use a lot of replaceable players who cycle through. They have also had substantial injuries to major stars, including Stanton, which have hurt them in terms of days, if not dollars. (Stanton makes just over the major league minimum for a player with his service time.)

The state of the Marlins does have to be taken into account. The team is out of the playoff race already, but it has Stanton as about its only gate attraction. Moreover, many around baseball expect Stanton to be traded before he hits arbitration after this season. The haul of prospects he could bring back would kick-start the latest rebuilding effort by Larry Beinfest

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball 2013: Picking the All-Early Bust Team for April

Picking busts is about value.

Scratch that. It’s about lack of value compared to expected return.

In other words, just because Maicer Izturis is hitting .162 and having a truly atrocious season, no fantasy owner in their right mind was expecting much, if anything, from him in the first place, so Izturis was ignored in drafts.

When we say “bust,” we mean a player with a relatively high average draft position (ADP) but whose performance so far hasn’t been worth the pick.

And because the focus is on results—or lack thereof—injury doesn’t count. You won’t find, say, Zack Greinke, Aaron Hill or Joel Hanrahan below, simply because a player can’t under perform if he isn’t, you know, playing.

With that clear, it’s time for the All-Early Bust Team as we close out the season’s first month.

We’ll point out the biggest bust at each position as well as a few close calls. Plus, since we like to be both informative and helpful, we’ll offer a reason why these busts might bust out yet.

 

Catcher

Victor Martinez, Tigers

ADP: 85.8

Fantasy Stats: .187 BA, 2 R, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB

Martinez remains catcher-eligible in most leagues because he made 26 starts behind the dish back in 2011 before missing all of 2012 with knee surgery. Seems that long layoff has left the Tigers “catcher” rather rusty.

Martinez, who actually spends his time as the designated hitter, hasn’t been “hitting” much of anything so far, and the popular preseason pick is hurting owners across the board.

Busting Out: With a .212 BABIP that’s bound to rise, V-Mart should open for business soon enough, and the surrounding Tigers bats will help him make up for a lost first month.

Close Calls: Buster Posey, Giants; Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks

 

First Base

Allen Craig, Cardinals

ADP: 57.9

Fantasy Stats: .250 BA, 8 R, 0 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB

After a breakout .307-22 HR-92 RBI season last year, Craig has yet to hit one out.

While his average isn’t awful and his runs and RBI totals are passable, that lack of power from first base is simply unacceptable.

Busting Out: Craig might not take the next step many expected, but once he and the Cardinals offense get rolling, he should approach his 2012 totals.

Close Calls:  Eric Hosmer, Royals; Adam Dunn, White Sox

 

Second Base

Jason Kipnis, Indians 

ADP: 69.1

Fantasy Stats: .170 BA, 3 R, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 4 SB

While he’s battled an elbow issue, Kipnis hasn’t missed so much action that we can’t consider him a bust.

Also, after his second-half swoon last year—he hit .233 with three homers and 11 steals following the break—it’s fair to wonder whether Kipnis can be a starting second baseman for owners.

Busting Out: If Kipnis can get right, he still has the skills to be a 10-homer, 20-steal guy at a premium position, and he should score runs hitting near the top of the remade Indians lineup.

Close Calls: Dan Uggla, Braves; Rickie Weeks, Brewers

 

Shortstop

Starlin Castro, Cubs

ADP: 37.4

Fantasy Stats: .275 BA, 9 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB

We keep expecting Castro to get to “The Next Level,” but it hasn’t happened yet.

The numbers aren’t that bad, especially among shortstops, but right now, you’re regretting using that third- or fourth-rounder on this guy a little bit, aren’t you?

Busting Out: The numbers might not be overwhelming in any one fantasy category, but Castro is going to produce above-average stats in every single one—for a shortstop.

Close Calls: Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians; Danny Espinosa, Nationals

 

Third Base

Adrian Beltre, Rangers

Fantasy Stats: .241 BA, 11 R, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB

ADP: 19.1

It hurts when your second-rounder is just sort of skating by like Beltre has done to this point.

He will get hot—and probably pretty soon—but for the first month, owners were expecting more, especially from one of the precious few hot cornermen who have managed to avoid a stint on the DL.

Busting Out: Beltre is walking (eight) more than he’s whiffing (only six!), so it’s just a matter of time before a guy who’s averaged 32 four-baggers and 103 RBI the past three seasons gets going.

Close Calls: David Freese, Cardinals; Mike Moustakas, Royals

 

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins

ADP: 16.0

Fantasy Stats: .200 BA, 4 R, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB

As many struggling outfielders as there are, this was an easy choice. Those. Stats. Suck.

Sure, some of Stanton’s slump must be related to his cranky shoulder, but he’s yet to miss significant action or go on the DL, so we’re counting him.

With the Marlins lineup a complete and total mess, owners need to cling tightly to the hope that Stanton finds his power stroke and reaches the 30-homer plateau for a third-straight year. 

Busting Out: Stanton hit .299 with 18 homers in the second half last year, which was when the Fish started selling off pieces, so he’s shown he can produce even without much help.

Close Calls: Matt Kemp, Dodgers; Jose Bautista, Jays; Jay Bruce, Reds 


Starting Pitcher

David Price, Rays

ADP: 22.4

Fantasy Stats: 0 W, 26 K, 5.52 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

This is not what owners of the 2012 AL Cy Young winner signed up for.

Last year, while Price was winning an AL-high 20 games, his longest stretch of starts without a dubya was two. So far, he’s 0-for-5. Talk about a fickle category.

Busting Out: Price’s career BABIP: .278. His 2013 BABIP: .334. The latter will normalize toward the former, and if the lefty maintains that career-best 2.0 BB/9, that yucky WHIP will soon be gone.

 

Matt Cain, Giants

ADP: 28.8

Fantasy Stats: 0 W, 26 K, 6.59 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Fantasy owners might be thinking: First Tim Lincecum, now Cain? It’s understandable if you’re skittish about Cain after watching his rotation mate lose it in 2012 and fearing the same might happen to him.

The right-handed Cain has three quality starts and two clunkers, and while there were minor concerns over his velocity, everything is in line with the norms, per FanGraphs.

Busting Out: Once his home run-to-fly-ball percentage stabilizes—it’s at 16.2 percent (six in 28.2 innings) but has never been north of 8.4 percent—Cain will be good as gold.

 

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

ADP: 88.4

Fantasy Stats: 2 W, 17 K, 4.97 ERA, 1.66 WHIP

Gallardo is known for being a bit of a fantasy tease, never quite as good as his owners want him to be but yet good enough to keep ’em coming back for more.

The right-hander usually posts high strikeout totals and walks his fair share, but so far his 6.9 walk percentage is nearly a career best, while his whiff rate of 13 percent is down from a career 24 percent.

Busting Out:  Gallardo has a history of so-so starts, and once his .363 BABIPeighth-highest in MLB—calms down, his ERA and WHIP will be spiffed up and hopefully his K rate, too.

 

Reliever

Fernando Rodney, Rays

ADP: 88.3

Fantasy Stats: 1 W, 3 SV, 7 K, 4.91 ERA, 1.77 WHIP

Over the winter, Rodney went from ridiculous to regression candidate, and now it seems to be coming true, starting with a blown save in his very first appearance of the new season.

Worse, the right-hander with the sketchy control—before last year’s 1.8 BB/9, Rodney’s career rate was 4.9 per nine—is up to his old tricks, having issued six free passes in 7.1 innings.

Busting Out: Rodney’s leash won’t be super long if he keeps this up, but the Rays don’t have much in the way of backup options who are pitching well at the moment either.

Close Call: J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks

 

All ADP info comes from ESPN fantasy baseball.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball 2013: Week 3’s Buy Low, Sell High Trade Advice

Last week, two of my three “Buy Low” picks, Carlos Gomez (10-for-18, HR, 3B in last week) and Homer Bailey (8 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 10 K in last start), came through while the third, Ike Davis, finally broke out on Friday with a two-homer game. One of my “Sell High” picks, Barry Zito (2.2 IP, 9 ER, 8 H), also made me look pretty smart in my first week of this feature.  

Just in case last week wasn’t a fluke, here’s some advice for next week  …

 

Sell High

J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays 

His six homers and 11 runs batted in this month shouldn’t be much of a surprise. He had eight homers and 19 runs batted in last May and also hit six more long balls in July. 

The other months when he’s not red-hot, however, are when you need to be concerned as an J.P. Arencibia owner. In April, June, September and October of 2012, he combined to hit three homers with 13 walks and 72 strikeouts in 204 at-bats.

You have to figure that cold streak will return very soon, and it won’t be the last of the season. The question is whether it’s worth it to ride out another homer binge. The catching depth is too deep to wait out the streaky Arencibia, in my opinion. Sell now. 

 

Chris Johnson, 1B/3B, Atlanta Braves 

Before anyone realizes Chris Johnson will go back to a platoon at third base with Juan Francisco once Freddie Freeman returns from the disabled list early next week, see if someone wants to give up something of value to acquire him and his .412 batting average (21-for-51). 

The 28-year-old is a career .282 hitter, coming off of a season in which he set career highs in homers (15), runs batted in (76), doubles (28) and several other categories. He’s a pretty good major league hitter.

Unfortunately, though, he’ll see most of his playing time in Atlanta versus left-handed pitching. The problem is that he doesn’t hit lefties (career .702 OPS) as well as right-handers (.780 OPS).

 

Buy Low

Victor Martinez, DH, Detroit Tigers

Slowly but surely, Victor Martinez appears to be getting more comfortable at the plate. He is, after all, coming back after missing all of 2012 with a torn ACL

In case any Martinez owner in your league doesn’t realize that and is disappointed with his 11-for-56 start without a homer, it probably wouldn’t be too hard to convince them to make a trade. 

Now, in case you did need a reminder, the 34-year-old switch-hitter has a .304 batting average since 2004. During that span, he’s averaged 18 homers, 90 runs batted in and 34 doubles per season. He can flat-out hit. He’ll figure it out soon enough.

 

Carlos Marmol, RHP, Chicago Cubs 

This may sound familiar if you were paying attention to the Chicago Cubs last year. Remember when Carlos Marmol’s shaky performance had him demoted from the closer’s role. He moved into a lower-leverage role and pitched much better. The “closer-by-committee” isn’t terrible, but no one in the group is exactly striking fear into opponents or making as much money as Marmol, so they eventually give him the job back. 

In 2012, he was really good in his second stint as closer (1.52 ERA, 12-for-13 in save opportunities, 29.2 IP, 20 H, 17 BB, 39 K). He’ll get another chance in 2013 for the same reasons. 

Kyuji Fujikawa, once he returns from the disabled list, gives the team another solid option in the ninth inning, but the Cubs would much rather see Marmol build his value and then trade him to open the spot first.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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