Tag: Fantasy

Fantasy Baseball: 4 Young and Valuable Players to Watch During Week 3 and 4

Fantasy baseball is in full swing this season as Week 3 is upon us.

Waiver-wire adds and drops during this time are crucial in building a team that is bound to keep you—and your wallet—happy come September. 

This is also a time in the fantasy season that feels to me like a sort of limbo. Some perennial stars are experiencing early-season slumps, and young guys are coming out of nowhere and filling in for those slumping studs. 

These four young studs are going to be broken down bit by bit in this article in order to assess their value now, and their value come crunch time in August and September.

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Underperforming Stars You Should Dump Early

It’s been a surprising start to the MLB season, especially in the fantasy world.

Chris Davis, John Buck and Matt Harvey, players that most likely weren’t the first players chosen on anyone’s draft board, have taken the league by storm over the first week.

And a few other more recognizable names have let down their managers, both in major league and fantasy baseball.

Some may just be off to a rough start. But there are a few players whose struggles should be red flags to any astute fantasy owner.

Drop the following five players as fast as you can.

Carlos Marmol

If you’re a Cubs fan or know one, then you’re very familiar with the phrase, “This is finally the year!”

That’s what many fantasy owners were thinking when taking Carlos Marmol, the Joey Chestnut of closers (he usually manages to get the job done, but the process is painful to watch). 

He had a reasonably promising second half to the 2012 season, saving 20 of 23 games overall and striking out 72 in 55.1 innings.

But in 2013, like every other season, Marmol has hit a speed bump, this time at the beginning of the season.

And this time, don’t expect the Cubs to give him another chance anytime soon.

With Kyuji Fujikawa set to take over for Marmol as the Cubs closer, only keep Carlos on your roster if you desperately need strikeouts.

Once again, this is not the year for the Cubs or for Marmol.

Ryan Howard

This will be a much tougher drop for most fantasy owners, as Ryan Howard, unlike Marmol, has been truly great for stretches of his career.

However, his start to the 2013 season is not one of those stretches.

The All-Star first baseman has only four hits in 27 at-bats, and none of those hits went for extra bases.

He’s part of a Phillies offense that has struggled as a whole, so don’t look for him to be falling into many RBI opportunities either.

While the potential for power is still there, Howard still has yet to prove that he can play at the same high level he consistently showed before his Achilles injury in 2011.

No need to completely abandon him just yet, but he shouldn’t be in your starting lineup anytime soon.

Yovani Gallardo

Yovani Gallardo has been one thing fantasy baseball owners love throughout his career: consistent.

Gallardo has been a solid, dependable starting pitcher each of the past four seasons, and looking at his statistics, there are very few outliers (just look at his eerily similar strikeout totals each year) that would indicate any change in his ability.

That’s what makes his start so frightening. 

Hitters are batting .396 against Gallardo. That’s the highest BAA of any pitcher who’s thrown more than five innings.

123 pitchers have thrown more than five innings.

Gallardo was a member of the Mexican team for the World Baseball Classic, and the effect the contest has on its pitchers has yet to be fully determined.

He pitched well in spring training, so this could potentially just be a blip on the radar.

But having the worst anything of 123 pitchers is something that cannot be ignored.

Pedro Alvarez

Like the rest of the Pittsburgh Pirates offense, Pedro Alvarez has endured a disastrous start to the 2013 campaign.

He has just two hits in 25 at-bats, neither of them for extra bases, and he’s currently sitting on one RBI.

Pedro’s 12 strikeouts are one off the major league lead, and his rate of one strikeout for every two at-bats is up from his radically consistent mark of one strikeout every three at-bats each of his past three years.

As long as he’s been an up-and-coming talent, he’s surprisingly still only 26 years old, and he has plenty of time to get his season turned around.

But the dramatic increase in his K/AB ratio that has been rock solid throughout his career while completely losing his power should set off alarms in the heads of fantasy owners.

Watch that ratio and his power numbers very carefully while quickly searching for another third baseman.

Roy Halladay

A 35-year-old pitcher coming off his worst season in over a decade and a poor spring training imploding in his first two starts of the year?

Run, run away fast.

Roy Halladay is a Hall-of-Fame pitcher whose accomplishments are noteworthy, but if you were hoping he’d be the man to save your weak fantasy pitching rotation, you were wrong.

Last season was his first with less than 30 starts since 2005. If a workhorse like Halladay failed to meet the numbers he so consistently hit, it wasn’t a fluke.

No matter what he claims about his physical state, something has gotten worse that isn’t going to get better.

Halladay may not be done as a starting pitcher, especially on the Phillies, but he is without a doubt done as a valuable part of any fantasy baseball team.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2013: Young Guns That Will Produce Consistently

The 2013 Major League Baseball season is just getting underway, and at this early juncture, there is plenty of time to pick out fantasy sleepers that will produce for your team throughout the year.

Several talented American League youngsters stand out thanks to their upside and flashes of promise from their previous campaigns. All three have short track records in the big leagues but have shown signs that they can get the job done in their brief careers.

Here is a breakdown of a trio of 20-somethings that should become staples in fantasy lineups at solid value.

 

Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians

Although he hit just .233 after the All-Star break in 2012, the 26-year-old is now flanked by several talented bats in the heart of the Cleveland order.

With Michael Bourn in the leadoff spot and Nick Swisher batting cleanup, there should be ample opportunities for Kipnis to score a lot of runs and also drive in many of his own.

Kipnis went hitless in the first two games for the Indians but socked two doubles against the Toronto Blue Jays, one of which was off of Mark Buehrle. That should be more of a sign of things to come for him, as he sports underrated power and the ability to hit to the opposite field effectively.

Another intriguing element that Kipnis brings to the table from a fantasy standpoint is his base-stealing prowess. He has successfully stolen 36 bases to date while only being caught seven times.

This is only his second full season in Cleveland, and he is a prime candidate to hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases while also potentially knocking 30 doubles. That’s outstanding prospective production from the second base position.

 

Jesus Montero, C, Seattle Mariners

Catchers aren’t typically known for their ability to hit, but Montero is an exception to that trend. At 6’3″ and 228 pounds, the 23-year-old is an imposing presence behind the plate and at the dish.

Montero split time as catcher and designated hitter in 2012 for the Mariners, and now he is ready to catch on an everyday basis.

The downside is that Montero only walked 29 times in 515 plate appearances in his maiden full-time campaign but should settle in with a more stable, prominent role in 2013. His eye will only get better as the year progresses, and there will not be a lot of pressure on him if he continues to bat in the No. 7 slot.

If Montero is able to give Seattle some pop at the bottom of the order, the chance to move up in the order is a definite possibility. The true meat of the Mariners lineup lies with Michael Morse and Raul Ibanez, who is currently batting fifth.

Such an order should allow Montero frequent at-bats with runners in scoring position, which is ideal for a relatively impatient hitter.

As his adjustment to baseball’s highest level continues, Montero‘s exceptional .308 average from his minor league days should begin to surface (h/t baseball-reference.com). It may even result in a surprising 30-homer showing as early as this year.

Montero will, in all likelihood, evolve into a hot commodity given the high ceiling he has offensively as a catcher, so it would be best to jump on him now while his stock is relatively low.

 

Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

At just 20 years old, Machado is brimming with potential and is already batting second in the Orioles lineup in the early going.

In just 191 at-bats in his first taste of MLB action, Machado socked seven homers, eight doubles and three triples in 2012.

That many extra-base hits in such a small sample size is hard to ignore. He became the youngest player in major league history to have a multi-homer game within his first two games against the Kansas City Royals last season.

Especially with regard to keeper leagues, there is no question that Machado should be invested in.

His versatility allows him to play at the hot corner or even at shortstop, and there is untapped potential in terms of what he could bring on the basepaths.

With dangerous hitters such as Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, the recently hot Chris Davis and Matt Wieters sitting behind him, there should be plenty of chances for Machado to get hot even as he continues to adapt to life as an everyday starter.

The precocious Machado has limitless upside and has flashed the power and speed combination that could eventually morph him into a perennial All-Star. Given the talent around him, his development has a chance to accelerate more quickly than anticipated.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2013: 7 Undrafted Players Primed for a Breakout Season

Finding a bunch of players on the verge of a “breakout” season isn’t necessarily all that hard. Finding a bunch of almost universally-undrafted players who are on the verge of a “breakout” season? That’s a little tougher.

Anyone can make a case for the Rays’ Matt Moore, the Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo or the Mets’ Matt Harvey, all young promising players ready to take the step from good to great as breakout candidates in 2013. But each of them were selected in every draft out there, often in the middle rounds.

The seven players to follow, however, also may be primed for their own breakouts this season—and still may be available in the free-agent pool. So if you need some help rounding out your roster, or if you’re looking for the next who-knew pick-up, dive in. Or at least update your watch list.

Only players with an average draft position (ADP) of 260-plus on ESPN Fantasy Baseball’s Live Draft Results were considered.

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Under the Knife: Latest MLB Injury Updates

I made it to Opening Day.

This year, Opening Day meant more than most years, since I was the one that almost went on the DL. Instead, I stood on the field Monday in Milwaukee, looking at the steel roof above the green grass and loving that it was once again baseball season. It was an amazing feeling, talking with so many media friends and having everyone from Doug Melvin to Ryan Braun pausing to ask how I was feeling. 

Of course, there’s a lot of injuries already around the league, which should be no surprise. Almost 20 percent of injuries occur in the spring. Even once Opening Day has come and gone, injuries tend to be a bit front-loaded. The reasons are obvious and inscrutable all at once, but the pattern has held for the decade we have data on and anecdotally for much longer.

It’s a long season, but for too many, the season is already over. Opening Day isn’t a new beginning, but the starting line that is sometimes not reached. Teams will begin to make do, to patch holes and to find ways to deal with the injuries that occur. At some point, they’ll do something about it, but until then, the doctors and athletic trainers will just put in the long hours they have trying to make a difference.

Powered by the spirit of Opening Day, on to the injuries: 

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2013 Fantasy Baseball Preview: National League Central Breakout Candidates

There is something to be said about anchoring your fantasy baseball team with players that have already reached their potential.

That said, there is always a new crop, often made up of younger players, that take their game to the next level. Here’s a look at some National League Central fantasy baseball breakout candidates. 

 

Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Cole will start the year in the minors, but he is one to keep an eye on when he gets the call. 

 

Todd Frazier, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

Frazier hit 19 home runs in 422 at-bats last year. He showed that he could handle both left-handed pitching (.857 OPS) and right-handed pitching (.817 OPS). He struggled down the stretch, hitting .176 in 74 September/October at-bats. He has power and is part of a potent lineup. 

 

Jason Grilli, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Grilli has 21 career wins and five career saves, but he has a chance to make a mark at 36, manning the closer gig for the Pirates. He struck out 90 in 58.2 innings last season, along with a 2.91 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, so he should help in multiple categories. 

 

Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Marte stole 12 bases in 47 games last year. He should be a strong contributor in that category, with potential in the other 5×5 categories. 

 

Shelby Miller, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

Miller won a spot in the rotation for the Cardinals. He has excellent stuff, as evidenced by his 16 strikeouts in 13.2 innings for the Cardinals and 160 in 136.2 innings for Triple-A Memphis last year. The Cardinals had four pitchers reach double-digit wins last year and five in 2011. 

 

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs

Rizzo posted a .285 average with 44 runs, 15 doubles, 48 RBI and three stolen bases in 337 at-bats last year. He struggled against left-handed pitching (.599 OPS) but raked against righties (.891 OPS). He posted nearly identical splits at home (.789 OPS) and on the road (.824). He has the potential to be a star and he’s just 23. 

 

Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

Segura has the speed to produce a decent average and run total, but the biggest upside is his stolen base potential. He swiped seven bases in 45 games last year. He should be able to steal 20-30 bases this year.

Also check out:

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Top Replacement Options for Key Fantasy Baseball Injuries

In fantasy football, it’s usually a good idea to own both a team’s starting running back and his backup. If the starter gets hurt, you won’t have to scour the waiver wire for someone else you know will get regular carries. You already have him. 

Depending on your league, you may have the ability to stash guys on your bench that don’t necessarily have a lot of value, but could potentially be the best option available if the inevitable happens and one of your key players gets injured.

Here are a few must-have replacements in-waiting … 

 

Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds

Keeping Mesoraco on your bench and hoping manager Dusty Baker starts giving him more time than Ryan Hanigan might end up being very frustrating. Baker does love Hanigan and isn’t one to trust a young catcher like Mesoraco with his pitching staff.

Don’t blame Baker, though. Hanigan is one of the better defenders and game-callers around and does a good job of getting on base (.370 OBP), if nothing else at the plate. 

It’s not nice to hope for an injury, but one to Hanigan might be Mesoraco’s only shot for extended playing time to prove himself to his manager. And if Baker trusts him, the Reds offense can potentially be much better.

The top catching prospect in the game heading into 2012, Mesoraco struggled at the plate without regular playing time. He’s 13-for-40 with two homers and three doubles this spring and could slowly start shifting his playing-time percentage closer to 50.0 by midseason, even if Hanigan doesn’t have the misfortune of suffering an injury.

 

Mike Olt, IF/OF, Texas Rangers

Olt, a third baseman by trade, increased his versatility last year by playing games at first base and right field. He’ll begin the season in Triple-A, but the odds are very high that he’ll get a regular spot sooner or later. 

Whether it’s soon to be 34-year-old Adrian Beltre, 37-year-old Lance Berkman (32 games played last season due to knee injury), 32-year-old Nelson Cruz (four DL stints for hamstring injuries in 2010-11) or Mitch Moreland (missed more than a month in 2012 with a hamstring injury) landing on the disabled list, it will very likely be Olt that gets the call to take their lineup spot.

 

Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

As things stand, Taveras will start the season in Triple-A where he’ll get regular at-bats and bide his time until a spot opens up for him. Sure it’s risky to keep him on your roster in a non-keeper league when there’s a chance he doesn’t see the majors until September.

There’s also a good chance this top-hitting prospect is getting regular at-bats much earlier. Carlos Beltran will be 36 in April, and although he’s had two relatively injury-free seasons, those knees aren’t going to hold up forever.

And remember that on the chance that Beltran does stay healthy again, there are two other outfielders very capable of straining an oblique or hamstring to open up a spot for the 20-year-old Taveras, who hit .321 with 23 homers, 37 doubles and 94 runs batted in with Double-A Springfield in 2012.


Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Full List of Opening Week’s 2-Start Fantasy Baseball Pitchers

With Opening Day for the 2013 MLB season starting at the beginning of the week, fantasy baseball lovers will have a bevy of two-start pitchers to choose from.

It’s all about matchups, home/road starts and previous performances that makes the decision of who to start in your fantasy league a difficult one.

Pitchers who might have the benefit of making two starts at home in the same week might seem to have an advantage. Others who are facing teams they’ve historically had success with in the past can be helpful as well.

For those fantasy baseball aficionados who are struggling with their lineups this week, here is a look at the two-start pitchers for Week 1 in your fantasy league.

 

Note: All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Front-Line Starting Pitchers to Reconsider Drafting for Your Fantasy Team

In this day and age where most pitchers can’t go a few years, much less one, without having some sort of elbow or shoulder trouble pop up, it’s very difficult to decide which ones are more at risk than others. 

While reading Will Carroll’s “Under the Knife” column can certainly help you determine the injury risk for many players, another factor in play is the inconsistency that can occur from year to year with many pitchers.

Who could’ve guessed that Tim Lincecum or Ricky Romero would be two of the biggest fantasy baseball busts in 2012? Both pitchers, especially Lincecum, had a track record of success and consistency.

Lincecum was in his age-28 season while Romero was only 27. Both have continued to struggle this spring, and Romero was just optioned to the minors Tuesday.

So which top-of-the-rotation pitchers should you stay away from in 2013? Who’s the next Lincecum or Romero? Here are four whom I believe should be drafted at your own risk.

 

Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics

The typical recovery period after Tommy John surgery is 12-18 months. Once a pitcher returns, it’s common for his command to come and go, and many pitchers say it usually takes two full years before they feel like they’re back to full strength. 

In the case of Anderson, he returned to the majors approximately 13 months after undergoing the procedure. Only one of seven late-season starts would be considered bad, and he finished the year by tossing six shutout innings in a playoff win over the Tigers. 

So is Anderson the rare pitcher to make a quick recovery with no struggles upon his return? Maybe. But I don’t think he’s out of the woods just yet. The inconsistency might still come. He hasn’t been particularly sharp this spring. He allowed just two earned runs in 5.1 innings Tuesday but with just one strikeout. Veteran scout Bernie Pleskoff had this assessment of both starters in the game:

The 25-year-old also has the injury-prone tag and was already sidelined with a minor neck injury this spring. He’ll start on Opening Day for the A’s. Whether he can be consistently good or healthy for 30-plus starts is a major concern, though.

 

A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates

Burnett’s exit from New York after back-to-back mediocre seasons in 2010 and 2011 resulted in a 16-win season for the Bucs and a 3.51 ERA, his lowest since 2005. Is it safe to assume that he’ll continue pitching well and maybe he is just more comfortable away from the bright lights of New York and the AL East?

We can’t forget that his Yankees debut in 2009 was actually pretty good (13-9, 4.04 ERA, 207 IP, 8.5 K/9), so whatever the issue was the following two seasons wasn’t a problem in year one with the team.

Don’t be surprised if the bad A.J. Burnett reappears in 2013, which would be terrible news for the Pirates as they try to avoid their 21st losing season in a row. I don’t really have anything statistically to base this on. Aside from his disastrous start on May 2 when he allowed 12 earned runs in 2.1 innings, he was consistently good the entire season.

But the Yankees weren’t exactly trying to dump him last offseason while willing to eat a lot of remaining salary because he was a reliable starter. They wanted him out of town for a reason.

 

Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks

All the talk surrounding the Diamondbacks last offseason focused on top pitching prospects Trevor Bauer, Pat Corbin and Tyler Skaggs. And what about Miley? He was supposed to keep a rotation spot warm until those guys begin to arrive.

Well, none of the three stepped up to claim a spot, and it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. Miley was an NL All-Star who ended up winning 16 games with a 3.33 ERA in 194.2 innings.

So why the concern in year two? After pitching more innings than he has in his career, there’s always a chance that the 26-year-old doesn’t come back as strong. He’s a candidate for the disabled list to start the season because he’s going through a “dead arm” phase, which has resulted in poor performances in two of his three spring outings.

And maybe all those scouts weren’t completely wrong and he starts pitching more like the No. 5 starter they have projected him to be. 

 

Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

I wouldn’t steer completely away from Sale, who was sixth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2012 after winning 17 games and posting a 3.05 ERA in his first year as a starter. I’d just wait a few extra rounds to compensate for the injury risk that I consider him to be. Chances are that he doesn‘t drop that far to you, but there’s also a good chance you won’t regret it.

As much of a side note as it ended up being, the White Sox were legitimately concerned about Sale’s sore elbow that they officially moved him to the bullpen last May. After one appearance, he talked his way back into the rotation and ended up being right. He was fine the rest of the way.

The White Sox aren’t overly concerned either, considering they gave him a $32.5 million contract extension that could keep him in Chicago until at least 2017.

Now the 23-year-old lefty is back a year after nearly tripling his innings total from 2011. Just because his elbow held up through the massive innings increase of last season doesn’t mean he’s out of the danger zone that some experts would consider such a jump in workload.

There’s a reason teams put innings caps on young pitchers. The Sox did not put one on Sale, and it’ll be on them if he blows out his elbow in 2013.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball 2013: Stars You Can’t Trust to Produce

With Opening Day just five days away, fantasy baseball players are busy studying mock drafts and figuring out who they should select with their picks. However, there are certain players that look good to the eye, but who simply cannot be trusted to perform well on your fantasy team. 

 

SP James Shields

The new ace in Kansas City may have fans excited for an upgraded rotation, but his numbers may significantly drop as he transitions to the AL Central. In spring training this year, Shields was rocked by the Angels, giving up eight earned runs on 11 hits in just five innings. His ERA this spring is currently at 7.90, certainly not a good mark for a pitcher who is looking to establish himself as the staple of a franchise. 

Last year, Shields was an inconsistent fantasy option. According to CBS Sports, he exceeded AccuScore projections for 15 weeks, but also failed to meet them 11 times. In 10 weeks alone, he scored five or less points, including two weeks of negative production. 

 

OF Mike Trout

He may have been baseball’s consensus Rookie of the Year last year, but Trout may be due for a sophomore slump this season. It was already reported that he showed up to spring training upwards of 15 pounds heavier than when he showed up last year. Trout’s agent also voiced his displeasure with the Angels’ decision to pay him just $20,000 above the major league minimum. 

Teams also began to figure out Trout to a certain degree as the season ended. He hit fewer home runs in August and September then he did in July, and he only batted .257 and was limited to six RBI in the final month of the season. As more teams begin to adjust to Trout, expect the rookie sensation to experience more struggles in his second year. 

 

2B/SS Danny Espinosa 

The Nationals are the talk of the town in Washington, D.C., as they are coming off a year where they had the best record in the MLB and pitcher Stephen Strasburg will pitch a full season. 

However, their middle infielder, Danny Espinosa, is certainly a risk for fantasy baseball owners. According to ESPN.com, he posted terrible numbers in his walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.24) and his miss rate on swings (32 percent). 

He is also a huge risk when it comes to batting average. Last year, he only hit .300 or above during the month of July.  He also started the season off poorly, hitting .226 in the first three months. Power numbers aren’t his specialty either, as he accounted for only 17 home runs and 37 doubles.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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