Tag: Fantasy

2013 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Starting Pitchers Ready for Big Seasons

Quality starting pitching is important in Major League Baseball’s biggest games, and it’s important to figure out how to get good value outside of the aces on your fantasy squad.

This trio of right-handed starters will command the hill in 2013 as some of the premier sleepers that are worth a shot in the latter stages of fantasy drafts.

Whether it was an encouraging end to last year, the presence of other stars around them or lack of other hurlers on their respective teams staffs to win games, these 20-somethings are ready to get their primes kick-started.

Here is a breakdown of each pitcher and why each is a good candidate to be very productive from a fantasy standpoint.

 

Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs

Samardzija has all the tools to succeed in the MLB, with the versatile pitching arsenal and imposing physical attributes to be the Cubs’ ace. Now that he has a full year of starts under his belt, this is the perfect time for Samardzija to key a Chicago turnaround.

The numbers last year were uneven, as Samardzija notched a 9-13 record with a decent 3.81 earned run average. After the All-Star break, though, that last figure dropped nearly a full run from 4.71.

After turning down the option to play in the NFL coming out of Notre Dame, Samardzija struggled to crack the Cubs’ rotation until last year. As Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports, the pitcher eliminated distractions in his life—and it clearly paid dividends.

…Last year we met and I told (GM Theo Epstein)…That in previous years, I didn’t feel like I had done everything I can. I thought I worked hard in the offseason and did a lot of things, but I didn’t think, especially in midseason (of 2011) I was putting myself where I needed to be to be the best I can be.

A newly committed Samardzija is a great sign for Cubs fans and for those who would like to add him onto their fantasy staff.

As ESPN points out, the 9.27 strikeouts Samrdzija racked up per nine innings came in fourth in all of baseball. If he can keep fanning at that rate, there is no reason that he shouldn’t continue to improve as he becomes more acclimated to playing in the big leagues.

 

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays

Morrow was the only Blue Jays starter to win 10 games last season—even though he spent time on the disabled list in the middle of the season. 2012 saw him post a 10-7 record and a 2.96 ERA, as he displayed consistency throughout.

Sometimes, it’s a bit risky to take a player like Morrow, who is coming off of one good campaign following two relatively poor ones. That should contribute to a dip in his stock, but the other big factor that will have him in the later rounds actually works to his advantage.

Now that Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, and Josh Johnson have been added to the fold, along with a revamped batting order, there won’t be pressure on Morrow to be the proverbial man.

The 28-year-old right-hander couldn’t quite establish himself as a surefire ace, but he is definitely worth a selection in the later stages of fantasy drafts.

His new, higher-profile teammates will get far more press, yet Morrow should go about his business effectively again. What makes him such an asset is how infrequently he walks hitters, and his cut fastball and extremely fast slider will continue to baffle the opposition in two-strike situations.

 

Matt Harvey, New York Mets

Don’t let his 3-5 record in 2012 be deceptive, because Harvey still posted a 2.74 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and struck out 70 batters in just 59 innings. It’s a relatively short track record, but the Mets don’t really have many other options to turn to.

As a result, the imposing 6’4″, 225-pound hurler will to take the bump as the favorite to be New York’s best pitcher this season without Dickey around.

In his major league debut, the flame-throwing Harvey overpowered the Arizona Diamondbacks, striking out 11 batters in just 5.1 innings pitched to key a 3-1 Mets victory.

The only concern is Harvey’s control, which was a little erratic at times last year. In 10 starts, he walked multiple batters nine times, including six with three free passes or more. That may stretch his pitch count, but Harvey should be prepared for it.

What’s nice about Harvey is that his four-seam fastball is unquestionably his strength. That was the pitch he threw 68 percent of the time in his first start and 61 percent overall for the season (h/t BrooksBaseball.net).

More heat puts less strain on Harvey’s arm, and if he can continue to get away with that many heaters while maintaining a low earned run average, he will be an asset for your fantasy squad.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball 2013: Late-Round Relievers Who Will Grab You Saves

Shortly after creating MLBDepthCharts.com, I quickly realized just how important it was for fantasy baseball players to find the guy who was “next in line” for saves. Even if it’s just to give the regular closer a break after a few consecutive days of work, saves are valuable for fantasy geeks. 

A closer’s job is rarely on solid ground from one game to the next. Despite what else happens throughout the game, a blown save is not something that’s taken lightly in the media or by fans because it’s almost always directly correlated with the final result of the game. 

Even the best closers in the game will be scrutinized if they blow three or four saves in a month. If you’re not the best closer in the game and you blow a save or two over the span of a few games, the pressure builds as the next unsuccessful opportunity could be the last. 

Take a look at the Washington Nationals’ 2012 season. Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez shared the closer’s gig to the start the season with Drew Storen on the disabled list. The hard-throwing Rodriguez took over the job on his own after Lidge landed on the disabled list in late April. 

Less than a month later, Rodriguez was removed from the role after a string of shaky outings and manager Davey Johnson said he would go with a closer-by-committee, which never happened. Tyler Clippard got the first shot and then didn’t relinquish the role until Drew Storen returned from the disabled list and shared saves with him the rest of the way. 

Injuries and ineffectiveness will occur, as I’ve shown with one extreme example from 2012. So it’s important to have the right guy on your team at the right time. Here are several relievers not projected to close that could either “vulture” some saves throughout the year or eventually take over the closer’s role if the opportunity presented itself … 

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: 5-Minute Guide for Faking Your Way Through a Draft

A fantasy baseball draft is supposed to be fun. If you’re not ready, though, participating in a draft can be a bit like taking a test without studying.

Whether you simply forgot to prep or just didn’t have time to, you’d still prefer to avoid walking away from your draft feeling like a high-schooler who just failed a calc’ final. Consider this five-minute guide your quick-and-dirty study session to help you cram for—and pass—that fast-approaching draft.

 

PREPARATION

Rankings

Find a source whose fantasy analysis and advice you trust and print out a copy of the rankings. It’s especially helpful to have both an overall rankings list (read: top 300 players) as well as rankings by position. This way, you can easily identify your next targets by either overall talent and value or by position need.

Here are a few recommended options:

ESPN Top 300

Yahoo! Fantasy Sports Top 300

CBS Sports Top 300

MLB Top 300 (and then some)

The key, then, is not to stray too far from the list you choose. If you really like a certain player who’s ranked a little lower than you think he should be, take him when you think it’s right; but don’t start looking to pick players ranked in the 100s when it’s still Round 3.

Sleepers

Separate from the overall and position rankings. It’s always helpful to have handy a list of names, by position, of underrated players you want to take. Call them sleepers, call them overlooked, call them dark horses—whatever. Just write them down ahead of time.

When your brain is starting to shut down near Round 17, instead of panicking and trying to access the recesses of your noodle-souped noggin to remember the name of that guy on that team you really, really wanted to take…you can calmly and quickly find a few options. Believe me, you don’t need to end up flummoxed, running out of time and resigned to simply selecting the next player in the rankings queue. Especially when that player is Gregor Blanco.

Again, a few suggestions from ESPN, FantasyPros and right here at Bleacher Report.

Recent News, Transactions and Injuries

If you’re really out of the loop, it’s important to do a quick check of current news and injuries to make sure you don’t do something silly, like draft Mark Teixeira, who’ll be out for a while, or that hot-shot prospect you’d heard was having a monster spring, but was just sent down to the minors. 

Some good sources for this include: ESPNCBSMLBMLB Trade Rumors and MLB Depth Charts.

 

AT THE DRAFT

Last-Minute Reminders

So you’ve made it this far. Don’t worry: That nervous feeling in your stomach is typical, pre-draft jitters. Hit the restroom, then grab a little nourishment to put by your side for later—we don’t want any unnecessary interruptions, do we?

Once you’re settled into your spot, try to avoid any last-second tinkering and give yourself at least a few minutes just before the draft actually begins to take a breath and relax. It helps.

Okay, ready? T-minus 10…9…8… 

Hitter Strategy

Focus on selecting hitters early on. You’ll want to draft offensive players with the majority of your first 10 picks, maybe even as many as eight or nine. This is because pitching depth is plentiful, so you can always acquire above-average starters late.

Focus on grabbing the best available hitters you like most for the first few turns, especially at first base, third base and outfield. It’s okay to sneak in a stud starting pitcher at some point, but make sure it’s a good value pick and don’t get caught up in any runs on SPs.

Then shift more toward addressing positions you still needs, so you can fill your active lineup with players worth starting. Remember, shortstop, second base and catcher are pretty thin, so you don’t want to get completely left out, if you can help it.

Pitcher Strategy

Once you’ve locked in most of your lineup, target a batch of pitchers who fit one or more of these criteria: young arms with upside; strikeout artists; WHIP helpers; pitcher-friendly home ballparks (i.e., Mariners, Padres, Angels, A’s, etc.). 

Don’t worry too much about going after the top closers, as the opportunity cost of passing over a quality hitter or starting pitcher is too high. There’s a lot of turnover and injuries among relievers, whose performance and health can be very volatile from year to year. Instead, try to land three or four closers who have the ninth-inning job to start the year, even if they’re lesser-knowns. What you miss out on in sparkling ERAs and WHIPs you’ll make up for with sheer number of saves.

Bench Strategy

Depending on how deep your reserve roster is, you should use it to address any particular needs or potential weaknesses that you’ve noticed along the way. If, say, you didn’t draft a shortstop until Round 13, and you’re not sure how much you really trust Erick Aybar, then go ahead and grab a backup with some upside, like Josh Rutledge.

Or maybe you focused almost exclusively on power hitters early, and you find yourself with a need for speed. Well, then pick up a Cameron Maybin, Emilio Bonifacio or Juan Pierre. The opposite happened? Target someone along the lines of Alfonso Soriano or Nick Swisher.

Don’t ignore pitching, either. You should be able to add capable starters in waivers and free agency, so don’t be afraid to go bold and gamble on a high-risk/high-reward arm—Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett or Tommy Hanson—because if they flame out, you’ll have plenty of options to fall back on.

The draft you were so worried about that’s coming up soon? You’ll ace it.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2013 MLB Preview: Fantasy Baseball NL-Only Catcher Rankings

Here’s the 2013 LestersLegends Catcher Rankings for NL-only leagues.

1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

Posey led the Majors with a .336 batting average. He led all catchers with 103 RBI. I’m not sure there is much he can’t do. Last year, he finished with a .336-78-24-103-1 line.

2. Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks

Montero has back-to-back years hitting better than .280 with at least 15 home runs and 86 RBI. He’s been better in the second half the past two years, so you’ll have to be a little patient.

3. Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies

Rosario led all catchers last year with 28 home runs. His .270-67-28-71-4 line was impressive. His home and away splits (.957 OPS vs. .721) are a small cause for concern.

4. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals

Molina has been a model of consistency but blew up last year with a .315-65-22-76-12 line. Even if regression is likely, he should remain one of the league’s top catchers.

5. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves

McCann hit at least 20 home runs for the fifth straight season but struggled mightily with a .230 batting average. He’s a lifetime .279 hitter, so I expect him to bounce back. He’ll miss the start of the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery, but he should be a pretty nice value.

6. Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers

Lucroy was limited to 96 games last year thanks to a broken hand, but he hit .320 with 46 runs, 16 home runs, 58 RBI and four stolen bases. His OPS, which was .881 last year, has improved each year.

7. Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies

Ruiz put on a display last year, turning in a .325-56-16-68-4 line. Unfortunately, he got popped for taking performance-enhancing drugs, so he’ll miss the first 25 games of the year. He’s a solid option once he returns, but you’ll have to make alternative plans early.

8. Travis d’Arnaud, New York Mets

He won’t make an impact early, but d’Arnaud could finish the season as solid fantasy catcher option, particularly in NL-only leagues. Last year, he turned in a .333-45-16-52-1 line in 279 at-bats for Triple-A Las Vegas.

9. Russell Martin, Pittsburgh Pirates

Martin struggles with his batting average, but he is a decent source of home runs and stolen bases.

10. A.J. Ellis, Los Angeles Dodgers

Ellis had a modest .270-44-13-52-0 line last year. He’s not going to carry you, by any means, but at least his average isn’t a hindrance.

Also check out:

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2013 MLB Preview: Fantasy Baseball NL-Only Third Base Rankings

Here’s the 2013 LestersLegends Third Base Rankings for NL-Only Leagues.

1. David Wright, New York Mets
Wright returned to form with a stellar .306-91-21-93-15. He has alternated good and bad years since 2008. Hopefully, he can buck that trend.

2. Hanley Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers

Hanley has not been the same force as earlier in his career, but his .257-79-24-92-21 line was solid. He’s only 29 and should be even better in an improved offense.

3. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

Zimmerman is solid, but has missed 98 games over the past three years. When he’s healthy he delivers in all 5×5 categories besides stolen bases.

4. Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers

Ramirez has not played 150 games since 2006, but he did play 149 games in each of the past two seasons. He has hit 25 or more home runs in nine of his last 10 seasons.

5. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda came alive during the World Series. He routinely hits for a solid average and has the ability to improve on his power numbers.

6. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres

I don’t think he can come close to the .286-95-31-115-17 line. Even with a pretty serious regression, he could have a solid year. He’s a solid bet for a nice home run/stolen base combo.

7. David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals

Freese had a solid .293-70-20-79-3 2012 line. He built upon his strong 2011 postseason and I feel there is more room for growth.

8. Martin Prado, Arizona Diamondbacks

Prado is a low-end third baseman to target if you’re looking more for batting average than power. He tends to provide decent run and RBI totals. Last year he stole 17 bases after stealing just 13 in his first 227 games. I’d figure on a .300-80-12-65-10 line.

9. Michael Young, Philadelphia Phillies

At 36, Young isn’t likely to return to the days of 90 runs, 20 home runs or 80 RBI. He should hit at a solid clip, but I would be surprised with anything better than a .300-70-12-70-5 line.

10. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Alvarez will continue to be a batting average liability, but he realized his power potential, smacking 30 bombs last year.

Also check out:

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2013 MLB Preview: Fantasy Baseball AL-Only Second Base Rankings

Here’s the 2013 LestersLegends Second Base Rankings for AL-Only Leagues.

1. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees

Cano was tops among second basemen in runs, home runs, RBI and batting average. He has as much of a stranglehold on the position as any player in the league.

2. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers

Kinsler has averaged 156 games the past two seasons and has played in at least 144 games in three of the past four years. His batting average has become the biggest issue rather than his health. Kinsler delivers an elite amount of runs and home runs, as well as a solid amount of RBI and stolen bases.

3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox

Pedroia took a step back last year with a .290/81/15/65/20 line in 141 games. He’s a strong bet to be among the leaders in all five categories once again.

4. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays

Zobrist can be used at second base, shortstop and outfield, which gives him great versatility. He isn’t a big average guy, but his .270 mark last year was solid. Over the past four seasons, he has averaged 88.8 runs, 19.3 home runs, 82.8 RBI and 18.5 stolen bases.

5. Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians

Kipnis had a solid first half, hitting 11 home runs with a .764 OPS. His dismal second half (three home runs, .650 OPS) soiled his first full season. Still, Kipnis finished with 86 runs, 76 RBI and 31 stolen bases.

6. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels

There is nothing flashy about Kendrick, but he should be a solid contributor in all five 5×5 categories. The Angels should have a potent lineup in 2013, so a solid year should be in the cards.

7. Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners

Ackley will turn 25 this week. He nearly doubled his at-bats last year, and his run, home run, RBI and stolen base totals nearly matched that same proportion. Unfortunately, his average fell from .273 to .226. His BABIP was .265, which was 74 points lower than his 2011 mark. He should see improvement in that category, which should help his average and his counting stats.

8. Emilio Bonifacio, Toronto Blue Jays

Bonifacio plays all over the place, so his positional flexibility may be his primary benefit. That and his ability to steal bases.

9. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners

Seager plays third base, but played second in 18 games last year, which gives him flexibility. He also quietly posted a modest line: .259/62/20/86/13. He has some decent pop and should benefit from the changes made to Safeco Field.

10. Omar Infante, Detroit Tigers

Infante does not excel in any category, but he’s solid across the board.

Also check out:

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Fantasy Third Basemen

Coming off a historic season, the Detroit Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera is clearly the top fantasy third baseman and arguably the top player in fantasy baseball in 2013.

Not only did Miggy set career highs in home runs (44) and runs batted in (139), but he became the first player to win the triple crown since Carl Yastrzemski won it more than 40 years ago. He led all of baseball in homers and RBIs and was second in batting average (.330) behind only San Francisco’s Buster Posey, who won the NL batting title with a .336 average.

As a lifetime .318 hitter, Cabrera has hit .320-plus in seven of the past eight seasons with the exception being 2008 when he hit just .292.

With the exception of his rookie season (2003) when he played only 87 games, Cabrera has driven in 100-plus runs every year and has at least 125 RBI in three of the his five seasons in Detroit. He also has scored at least 109 runs in each of the past three seasons.

 

While he’s unlikely to repeat as a triple crown winner, Cabrera is one of the most dangerous and consistent hitters in the game and should continue to put up MVP-caliber numbers that fantasy owners can take to the bank.

 

Monster Second Half for Headley

San Diego’s Chase Headley has been a consistent source of stolen bases at a position that typically lacks speedsters. With double-digit steals in the past four seasons, Headley tied his career high with 17 steals last year. Of all third base-eligible players, only Hanley Ramirez had more steals (21).

It was Headley‘s power production, however, that was noteworthy.

Headley, who turns 29 this season, hit nearly as many home runs in 2012 as he had hit in the rest of his career combined. Before last season’s career-high 31 home runs, Headley had never hit more than 12 in any season.

In addition to shattering his career high in homers, Headley drove in an NL-high 115 runs, which is more than 50 RBIs higher than his previous career high (64) set in 2009 as well.

While he had a solid first half, Headley was as dominant as any hitter in the second half. In 75 games after the All-Star break, he hit .308 with 23 home runs and 73 runs batted in.

 

Can he carry that type of momentum over into the 2013 season?

 

Breakout Year for Alvarez

After a solid debut for Pittsburgh Pirates third base prospect Pedro Alvarez in 2010, he could not have frustrated fantasy owners much more than he did in 2011.

As a rookie, Alvarez, the second overall pick in the 2008 draft, hit 16 home runs with 64 runs batted in with a fair (but not great) .256 average in 95 games.

Not only did he hit below the Mendoza Line in his second season (.191), but the slugger hit a mere four home runs in 262 big-league at-bats in 2011. He spent 42 games in the minors that season.

From a batting average standpoint, Alvarez hit much better from June to October (.259) last year than he did in March through May (.205).

 

While he will never win any batting titles, Alvarez had the type of power production last year that many expected in 2011. He finished the year with 30 home runs and 85 runs batted in, both of which were career highs.

 

Some More Third Basemen Notes

After an injury-shortened 2011 campaign, New York Mets third baseman David Wright played 156 games and had a strong all-around season in 2012. Hitting above .300 for the first time since 2009, Wright hit 21 home runs, stole 15 bases, scored 91 runs and drove in 93 runs. As much as any other third baseman, he’s a strong contributor in all five roto categories.

Baltimore’s Manny Machado is one of the game’s top young players and won’t turn 21 until early July. With tremendous promise, Machado played 51 games last season and should be the Orioles’ everyday third baseman in 2013. Unless you’re in a deep or AL-only league and need to start Machado, he provides plenty of upside as a bench guy.

Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria is my second-ranked third baseman, but the obvious concern is durability with Longoria. Playing a total of only 207 games in the past two years combined, his 162-game pace over that span is for 37.57 home runs and 120.52 runs batted in. Of course, the question is how many of those 162 games will he miss?

 

In his first season with the Brewers, Aramis Ramirez hit 27 home runs, scored 92 runs to go along with 105 runs batted in, all of which are four-year highs. In addition, he hit .300 for a second consecutive season. After stealing a total of nine bases from 2003 to 2011, Ramirez stole a career-high nine bases last season alone.

 

Here are my third basemen rankings for the 2013 fantasy baseball season (based on Yahoo! eligibility):

1. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

3. David Wright, New York Mets

4. Hanley Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers

6. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

7. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres

8. Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers

9. Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays

10. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants

11. Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels

12. David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals

13. Martin Prado, Arizona Diamondbacks

14. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates

15. Will Middlebrooks, Boston Red Sox

16. Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals

17. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners

18. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

19. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds

20. Marco Scutaro, San Francisco Giants

 

Also, check out:

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball 2013: Top 60 Outfielders Heading into Exhibition Play

Here’s my early top-60 listing of outfielders heading into exhibition play, with an emphasis on 5×5 roto leagues.

This position will likely produce baseball’s largest number of four- and five-category studs by season’s end.

But that star power still cannot obscure the uncertainty of taking inexperienced young players or injury-riddled veterans later in the draft, or household names that will invariably fall short of last year’s amped-up stats.

Hopefully, this listing will eliminate some of the draft-day doubt and consternation that come with the territory.

Especially with leagues that require five starters at the position.

Enjoy the show!

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2013 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 20 Fantasy Catchers

One of my most tried and true draft strategies is to wait as long as possible before drafting my fantasy catcher.

Without question, San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey will be the first backstop drafted this year. In fact, he’s a borderline first-round pick using average draft position (ADP) data from Mock Draft Central, as he’s currently the 13th overall pick, on average, in their mock drafts.

While I would not take Posey with the 13th (or earlier) pick, I would consider using an early-round pick in the unlikely scenario that he slips to Round 3.

Since he’s also used at first base, Posey played a league-high 148 games and finished second in at-bats (530) behind Minnesota’s Joe Mauer (545) among the catcher-eligible players. Only six catchers finished the year with 500-plus at-bats and only 14 of them had 400-plus at-bats.

Not only did he get the opportunities (plate appearances), he made the most of the them.

Posey, the reigning NL Most Valuable Player, led the majors with a .336 average en route to his first batting title. Although three catchers had more homers than Posey (24), he was only four off the leaderColorado’s Wilin Rosario (28). In addition, Posey led all catchers in runs batted in (103), with 15 more than Arizona’s Miguel Montero, who finished second.

Unfortunately for Posey and his fantasy owners, he plays in a pitcher’s park and the vast majority of his home runs came on the road last year. While that trend should continue, he actually hit for a higher average at home (.343) than he did on the road (.330) last year.

 

 

Barring injury, Posey is the surest of sure things behind the plate. He may not finish with a line of .336/24/103 again, but .310/20/80 is a more-than-reasonable projection, with plenty of upside of a much better year.

 

Salvador Perez: Nice value at ADP of 134

If you speak Spanish, you know that “salvador” translates to savior.

While Kansas City’s Salvador Perez will not literally be your team’s “savior,” he’s a really good option at catcher and available relatively late. With an ADP of 134 (via Mock Draft Central), he’s the 11th catcher off the board.

After returning from knee surgery, the 22-year-old hit .301 with 11 homers in 76 games in 2012. Provided he stays healthy for a full season, Perez has the potential to hit .300 with around 20 home runs and 75 runs batted in this year.

Even though he walked in only 4.7 percent of his at-bats in the second half, only two catchers with at least 100 at-bats had a better (lower) strikeout rate than Perez (9.7 percent). Using data from FanGraphs, only Cincinnati catcher Ryan Hanigan (8.5 percent) and St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina (9.6 percent) had better rates.

 

 

Perhaps my projections are a bit too optimistic. That said, only three catchers hit .300 with 15 home runs last year: Posey, Yadier Molina and Carlos Ruiz.

 

Some More Catcher Notes

This offseason, it was discovered that Red Sox free-agent addition Mike Napoli has avascular necrosis, a degenerative hip condition. While the player and club initially agreed to a three-year deal, they ultimately settled on a one-year deal loaded with incentives. The hip injury is less of a concern for folks in re-draft leagues than for those in keeper or dynasty leagues.

 

No catcher has more homers than Napoli over the past three seasons (80), and he has five consecutive seasons with 20-plus home runs. In other words, there is a good chance that Napoli will lead all catchers in home runs this season.

Colorado’s Wilin Rosario plays half of his games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field and he took advantage last year as a rookie. While he hit .297 at home (versus .242 on the road), 18 of his position-high 28 homers and 44 of his 71 runs batted in came at home.

After playing only 82 games in 2011, the fewest since his rookie season, Minnesota catcher Joe Mauer played a career-high 147 games last year and had his fourth season with 600-plus plate appearances. While he’s unlikely to ever hit the 28 homers he hit in 2009 again, a .310/80/10/80 line is a very reasonable expectation for Mauer.

Baltimore Orioles backstop Matt Wieters set some career highs in 2012 with 144 games, 593 plate appearances, 23 home runs and 83 runs batted in, although he hit below .250 for the second time in the past three seasons. Wieters finished strong with a .296 average, six homers and 18 RBI in September and October.

The stars aligned perfectly last year for Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina. Molina set career highs in all of the 5×5 categories: .315 average, 65 runs, 22 home runs, 76 runs batted in and 12 stolen bases. While I expect a solid line (.305/60/15/65/8) for Molina, I don’t expect a repeat of those numbers and won’t pay for them, which means he likely won’t be on any of my teams in 2013. Based on his current ADP of 37 overall, I’d much rather wait for someone like Perez almost 100 spots later.

 

 

Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz set career highs in homers (16), RBI (68) and average (.325). Despite being a much stronger second-half hitter historically, Ruiz got off to a strong start last year: .350 average, 13 HR and 46 RBI before the All-Star break. For fantasy owners hoping for another strong start, Ruiz unfortunately will serve a 25-game suspension to begin the season for the use of adderall.

 

Here are my 2013 fantasy catcher rankings:

1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
2. Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians
4. Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles
5. Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
6. Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers
7. Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies
8. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
9. Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox
10. Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks
11. Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners
12. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves
13. Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Bucks
14. A.J. Pierzynski, Texas Rangers
15. Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers
16. Ryan Doumit, Minnesota Twins
17. Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies
18. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston Red Sox
19. J.P. Arencibia, Toronto Blue Jays
20. Tyler Flowers, Chicago White Sox

 

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Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2013: Late-Round Pitchers Who Will Surprise

The fate of fantasy baseball teams can change with a few good sleeper picks.

One of those picks for many owners (including myself) last season was Chris Sale—the relief pitcher turned ace. Before the season started it was unclear if Sale would even be in the rotation, but he finished in the Cy Young conversation when the book closed on 2012.

All it takes is one pick in the later round to strike fantasy gold. Here are three pitchers who are poised to shine and are under the radar of most fantasy owners.

 

Lance Lynn

Lynn had a breakout season in 2012, but fantasy owners still aren’t big believers of the righty’s sustainability. In CBS’s latest mock draft, he was drafted in Round 11 alongside Hiroki Kuroda and Matt Garza. I see Lynn building on last year with a firm spot in the Cardinals rotation.

On top of his 18-win campaign, he notched eleven games with seven or more strikeouts last season. He has a relatively young arm, only pitching 180 innings last year. He’s ready for the heavy workload and fantasy owners will be lucky to have him.

Unless you read this column and draft him afterward. Then you’re just plain smart.

 

Jason Hammel

Hammel started 2012 on fire before tailing off after a knee injury in the second half. Still, the potential for a great season in Baltimore is on the table, pending his health.

He had eight quality starts through July 8 last year, and he can be an innings hound in those fantasy leagues that reward for them.

With some quality hitting finally in Baltimore, Hammel should get more run support and reach double-digit wins for the first time since 2010.

 

Jacob Turner

As for deep sleepers: Why not take a chance on Turner? The 21-year-old is one of the young faces of the Marlins new rotation.

Viewing the Fish on paper, most of it looks like fantasy trash. However, Turner will have an entire season to show his stuff in the more pitcher-friendly National League.

In three starts at Marlins Park, the right-hander had a 2.75 ERA. The former Detroit Tiger will need to fix his problems on the road—where his numbers skyrocketed—in order to have any fantasy value.

 

Mike Shiekman is a Breaking News Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow his sports musings and random life observations on Twitter.

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