Kuzul

The following countdown touts my best early guess of the top 20 starting pitchers heading into fantasy drafts for 2013.

(Stats compiled through Sept. 13.)

This off-the-cuff brainstorm may be rooted in hard numbers, but it’s also a soft measurement of where the market currently stands and where it’ll be in mid-to-late March.

For all we know, young guns like Dylan Bundy (Orioles), Jake Odorizzi (Royals), Matt Harvey (Mets), Gerrit Cole (Pirates), Trevor Bauer (Diamondbacks) or teen prodigy Jose Fernandez (Marlins) could somehow force their way into the next countdown, thanks to a stupendous spring.

But at this point, I prefer to lean on the following cast of savvy veterans, which includes a 23-year-old lefty who’s primed for a big jump next season.

Enjoy the show!

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Most September call-ups will sit on major league benches for the last month of the season, called up to fill in as pinch runners, mop-up relievers or to give starters a day off.

However, a few youngsters have come up to find themselves in the lineup and making an impact. 

Most of these players are not worth starting. Most of them are not worth owning in standard leagues, but in deep leagues, every starter has value, and those making in the midst of hot streaks have the chance to earn even more at-bats. 

At the end of the day, during fantasy playoffs, luck favors the creative.

Here are five new big leaguers who could make a significant difference when it counts.

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Atlanta pitcher Kris Medlen, who threw a shutout as my recent streaming pitcher option, has been lights out since joining the Braves’ rotation. Is he for real?

It is truly hard to argue with the results. Since joining the rotation Kris is 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and 22 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings, including the aforementioned shutout against the San Diego Padres.

On the season he is 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 58 strikeouts in 80.0 innings. Whether he is starting or relieving he has been spot on, aside from a bumpy May.

It doesn’t matter if Medlen is pitching at home or on the road. He is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .234 batting average against at Turner Field. He has been even more difficult to hit on the road, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.95 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and a .212 BAA.

His day numbers (2.81 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) aren’t as nasty, but they are still solid. Meanwhile, at night he is nearly untouchable (1.66, 0.94).

He had a 1.42 ERA in April, a 2.79 mark in June, a 0.84 mark in July and has a 0.87 ERA so far in August. His lone hiccup came in May when he posted a 5.17 ERA, but he quickly righted the ship.

Medlen is owned in about thirty-five percent of Yahoo! and about sixty percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues. He has SP and RP eligibility, which makes him even more valuable to fantasy owners.

As long as he remains in the rotation, he is certainly worth riding the hot hand. His next start is Wednesday against the Nationals.

Your thoughts?

Also check out:

• Is Now the Time to Buy Tommy Milone?
• Can Carlos Lee be a Fantasy Factor?
• Should You Be Looking At Hisashi Iwakuma?
• Is Lorenzo Cain Able?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With his five-hit complete game against the Washington Nationals Tuesday night, Madison Bumgarner extended his quality starts streak to seven. In 16 of his 24 starts this season he’s allowed two runs or less. And here’s another mind-bender: He’s walked more than two batters in an outing just once all year.

This is the kind of consistency that warrants ace status. And whether or not Bumgarner gets the credit he deserves, he’s already at that level.

Since his major-league debut in 2009 (he logged only 10 innings with the Giants that year), Bumgarner has the 11th-best ERA (3.05) and 10th-best FIP (3.17) among qualified starters. Of the pitchers ahead of him on those lists, the only walk-rate better than Bumgarner’s (1.97) is that of Roy Halladay (1.27), and the only strikeout rates better than Bumgarner’s (8.04) are those of Clayton Kershaw (9.36), Justin Verlander (9.21), Josh Johnson (8.43) and Adam Wainwright (8.31).

Since 2010, Bumgarner’s WAR (10.5) is better than that of Yovani Gallardo (9.7), Johnny Cueto (9.7), James Shields (9.4) and Matt Latos (9.1).

Bumgarner’s 2011 season (5.5 WAR) was the sixth-best by a 21-22 year-old EVER. Only Mark Prior (2003, 7.6 WAR), Frank Tanana (1975, 7.2), Brett Saberhagen (1985, 6.8), Fernando Valenzuela (1982, 6.5) and Frank Tanana (1976, 6.1) were better at the same age.

This season, Bumgarner’s WAR (3.2) tops that of Jered Weaver (3.0), Matt Cain (2.9) and Cliff Lee (2.6).

A legitimate case can be made for Bumgarner being a top 10-15 fantasy starter. And he just turned 23.

Take a minute to let that settle.

One of MadBum’s keys to success has been his first-pitch strike rate, which has risen from 57.5 percent in 2009 to 60.2 (’10), to 62.6 (’11) to 64.2 this season (17th-best among qualified starters).

There is one thing that scares me about Bumgarner, however, and it’s a doozy. He’s throwing his slider at a rate of 38 percent, second most in the majors. And if you’ve read this, you know why that’s a very bad thing.

Bumgarner’s velocity hasn’t taken a nosedive yet, but when it does you’ll want to start shopping him. In fact, I wouldn’t hesitate to move him now. This isn’t to say he can’t maintain his current value, but—and this is just a personal preference—I simply don’t trust pitchers who use their slider as much as Bumgarner does.

Chris Sale—who I wrote about earlier this week—is similar to Bumgarner in that they both are 23, they’re both pitching lights-out and they both throw their slider way too often.I’d rather have Bumgarner, given that he pitches in a more friendly home park and league.

But again, these are all just personal preferences. I don’t expect many to believe trading a 23-year-old southpaw with Bumgarner’s (or Sale’s) resume is a good idea. But if I owned either one, I’d be looking to maximize their value right now—before they fall victim to a major injury.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook and Twitter

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Why You Should Sell High on Chris Sale
• Who the heck is Josh Rutledge?
• Prospect Report: Manny Machado

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s mid-August. You’re in, or near, the bottom of the barrel. Your playoff hopes are completely toast. You just don’t care.

Well, start caring.

Fantasy sports are a thing of pride. But at some point, it becomes too easy to give up—especially this late in the game with your team completely blocked from glory.

Still, it’s never too late to build for next year. Never too late to get in one last victory—no matter how small or pointless it may be.

Believe it or not, there are reasons to be paying attention to fantasy baseball this late in the season.

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After striking out 10 Yankee batters over seven scoreless innings on July 20th, Oakland A’s pitcher Tommy Milone was 9-6 with a 3.34 ERA. In his past three starts, against Toronto twice and Tampa, he has been battered for 16 earned runs in 19 innings (7.58 ERA).

He dropped all three of his starts to even his record at 9-9 and his ERA ballooned to 3.91.

That rough patch has led to many a fantasy owner jumping ship. The question is, should you swoop him up?

He certainly has use as a streamer at the very least. In his home starts, Milone is 5-3 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. On the road it has been a different story, as he’s 4-6 with a 5.77 and a 1.53 WHIP.

He has also been hit hard during day games (5.68 ERA compared to 3.40 at night). That kind of split differential makes it tough for full-time ownership.

Milone pitched well for Washington last year (3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 26.0 innings) and was a dominant force for Triple-A Syracuse (3.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). Tommy has illustrated great control throughout his career, which helps keep his ERA and WHIP down. 

He has the goods to make batters miss so continued success in the strikeout department wouldn’t be unexpected.

Milone is owned in about 45 percent of Yahoo! and 35 percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues. He does have some value, but right now he’s best served as a streamer during home night starts. I’d sit him out today on the road against the White Sox, though.

Also check out:

• Can Carlos Lee be a Fantasy Factor?
• Should You Be Looking At Hisashi Iwakuma?
• Is Lorenzo Cain Able?
• Can Wei-Yin Chen Continue to Deliver?
• Need Speed, Add Justin Ruggiano

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With the fantasy-trade deadlines coming up this week or next (I have four red-letter dates this Friday), it’s time for owners to make one last pitch for baseball’s elite categorical contributors.

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections.

These 50 starting pitchers, based on AccuScore projections (not mine), will register at least 55 strikeouts from this point forward (Aug. 7-Sept. 30):

Part I

1. CC Sabathia, Yankees—77
2. Justin Verlander, Tigers—75
3. Yu Darvish, Rangers—75
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies—72
5. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals—68
6. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals—68
7. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers—68
8. Lance Lynn, Cardinals—67
9. Roy Halladay, Phillies—67
10. James Shields, Rays—67
11. Felix Hernandez, Mariners—67
12. Cliff Lee, Phillies—67
13. Marco Estrada, Brewers—67
14. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers—67
15. Francisco Liriano, White Sox—66
16. Madison Bumgarner, Giants—65
17. Zack Greinke, Angels—65
18. Tim Lincecum, Giants—65
19. Matt Cain, Giants—65
20. Mat Latos, Reds—64
21. Jered Weaver, Angels—64
22. Jeff Samardzija, Cubs—63
23. David Price, Rays—63
24. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals—63
25. Erik Bedard, Pirates—63

Part II

26. Felix Doubront, Red Sox—63
27. Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks—61
28. Max Scherzer, Tigers—61
29. Anibal Sanchez, Tigers—61
30. R.A. Dickey, Mets—60
31. Ryan Dempster, Rangers—60
32. Jake Peavy, White Sox—60
33. Josh Johnson, Marlins—60
34. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians—60
35. Jon Lester, Red Sox—59
36. C.J. Wilson, Angels—59
37. Chris Capuano, Dodgers—58
38. Bud Norris, Astros—58
39. Matt Harvey, Mets—58
40. Michael Fiers, Brewers—58
41. Josh Beckett, Red Sox—58
42. J.A. Happ, Blue Jays—57
43. Chris Sale, White Sox—57
44. James McDonald, Pirates—57
45. Drew Pomeranz, Rockies—57
46. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants—56
47. Jon Niese, Mets—56
48. Matt Moore, Rays—56
49. Edwin Jackson, Nationals—55
50. Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees—55

Breakdown

• I’ll buy the “under” for CC Sabathia and 77 strikeouts. Since May 26, Sabathia (11-3, 3.53 ERA, 1.20 ERA, 133/34 K-BB) has averaged 6.8 strikeouts over 10 starts. So, if he should squeeze in another 10 outings before Sept. 30, he’ll have to improve upon his current pace of the last 13 weeks. On the positive side, Sabathia has four double-digit strikeout efforts for the season.
• Clayton Kershaw has 69 strikeouts since June 15, with six or more K’s in nine of the last 10 outings. And compared to Justin Verlander (who bedazzled the Yankees for 14 strikeouts on Monday night), Kershaw will likely enjoy one more start than the Tigers ace from this point forward. Bottom line: I’ll buy the “over” on Kershaw and 68 strikeouts.
• Stephen Strasburg (11.31), Max Scherzer (11.28), Yu Darvish (10.34) and Gio Gonzalez (10.02) are the only regular MLB starters to post K/9 ratios above 10 this season, and from a 30-day perspective, Scherzer, Strasburg, Darvish, Francisco Liriano, James Shields, Madison Bumgarner and David Price boast that honor. So naturally, they’re all good candidates for 60-plus strikeouts.
• Roy Halladay has posted respectable results in his last four games with Philly—1-1, a 4.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 21/3 K-BB ratio. But the punch-outs aren’t necessarily coming at an accelerated rate, likely a consequence of his recent shoulder woes and subsequent absence from the Phillies rotation for June and half of July.
• Noticeably absent from this list: A.J. Burnett, Dan Haren, Wandy Rodriguez, Vance Worley, Andrew Cashner, Johnny Cueto, Wei-Yin Chen, Jordan Zimmermann, Aaron Harang, Miguel Gonzalez, Zach McAllister, Chad Billingsley, Corey Kluber and Ricky Romero.
• For what it’s worth, AccuScore projects Reds closer Aroldis Chapman for 48 more strikeouts in just 27.4 innings. For July, Chapman had a 0.00 ERA and 0.56 WHIP. He was also a perfect 13-for-13 in save opportunities. Chapman’s K/9 ratio for July was a mind-blowing 19.5, easily his best effort of the season.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With the fantasy trade deadlines coming up this week and next (I have four red-letter dates this Friday), it’s time for owners to make one last pitch for baseball’s elite categorical contributors.

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections.

These 46 hitters, based on AccuScore projections (not mine), will register at least nine home runs from this point forward (Aug. 7-Sept. 30):

Part I
1. Adam Dunn, White Sox—14
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers—13
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers—13
4. Curtis Granderson, Yankees—12
5. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs—12
6. Josh Hamilton, Rangers—12
7. Albert Pujols, Angels—12
8. Mark Trumbo, Angels—12
9. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays—12
10. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays—12
11. Matt Kemp, Dodgers—11
12. Mark Teixeira, Yankees—11
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox—11
14. Josh Willingham, Twins—11
15. Corey Hart, Brewers—11
16. Prince Fielder, Tigers—11
17. Mike Trout, Angels—10
18. David Ortiz, Red Sox—10
19. Robinson Cano, Yankees—10
20. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins—10
21. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies—10
22. Jay Bruce, Reds—10
23. Adam LaRoche, Nationals—10

Part II
24. Trevor Plouffe, Twins—10
25. Nelson Cruz, Rangers—10
26. Adrian Beltre, Rangers—10
27. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics—10
28. Adam Jones, Orioles—9
29. Kevin Youkilis, White Sox—9
30. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates—9
31. Mike Napoli, Rangers—9
32. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates—9
33. Dan Uggla, Braves—9
34. Mark Reynolds, Orioles—9
35. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs—9
36. Ryan Howard, Phillies—9
37. Josh Reddick, Athletics—9
38. Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox—9
39. Michael Morse, Nationals—9
40. Aramis Ramirez, Brewers—9
41. Matt Holliday, Cardinals—9
42. Carlos Quentin, Padres—9
43. Nick Swisher, Yankees—9
44. Joey Votto, Reds—9
45. Carlos Beltran, Cardinals—9
46. Brandon Moss, Athletics—9
 

Breakdown

• The prediction that immediately stands out is Anthony Rizzo (9 HR, 23 RBI, .301 BA) clubbing 12 homers from this point forward. To date, he’s averaging one homer for every 14.78 at-bats. Extrapolating that figure over another 49 games (sitting out six) with four daily at-bats (conservative estimate), that’s another 196 at-bats for the season…or 13.26 home runs. AccuScore’s right in that ballpark.
• I’ll reluctantly buy the “under” on Adam Dunn’s prediction of 14 homers from this point forward. For the season, Dunn (31 HR, 74 RBI, .205 BA) has a sterling trend of one homer for every 12.26 at-bats. But in the last 30 days, Dunn’s rate has regressed to one homer for every 15.2 at-bats.
• Noticeably absent from this list: David Wright, Evan Longoria, Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Lind, Alex Rios, Ryan Zimmerman, Startling Marte, Ian Kinsler, Jason Kubel, Ike Davis, Brian McCann, Carlos Pena, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Morneau, Hunter Pence, Dayan Viciedo, Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon.
• I’ve seen approximately 12 of Paul Goldschmidt‘s 16 homers on live TV this season, via MLB Extra Innings. And that somehow led me to believe Goldy was belting bombs at a more prodigious rate than one homer per 21 at-bats (seasonal)…or one homer for every 16.1 at-bats (minus a shaky April). If he maintains that May-August pace, he’ll clear double digits.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Back on March 24, I came up with 10 bold predictions for the 2012 season.

The point of these “bold predictions” was to find scenarios that would most likely not happen, but still find enough evidence to prove that they could come true.

For example, saying Miguel Cabrera would be a top-five fantasy player would not qualify as a bold prediction.

With August rolling in, I thought it would be fun to look back at what I came up with. Here are my findings.

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Houston Astros pitcher Lucas Harrell is 7-7 with a 4.24 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and 75 strikeouts in 114.2 innings. Not exactly impressive numbers, especially the 5.9 K/9 ratio, but lately he’s been much more productive making him a fantasy consideration.

In his past five starts Harrell has allowed one or fewer runs on four occasions. He is sporting an impressive 2.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 33 innings of work during that stretch.

Equally impressive has been the 35 strikeouts (9.5 K/9) he has racked up. Harrell has nearly as many strikeouts in his past 33 innings as he had in his first 81.2.

Harrell has been a monster at home, sporting a 5-1 record with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 45.1 innings pitched. Unfortunately for Lucas, he has tossed 69.1 innings on the road, where his ERA is a robust 5.71 and his WHIP is 1.46.

Clearly with splits like that, he has earned a streamer designation. If he is starting at home, he should be considered.

In his past two road starts he has posted a 1.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. His success has come in just 12 innings, and he got bombed for five runs in five innings in his prior start, so he’s not out of the woods. However, if the matchup is favorable, even on the road he could be worth a look.

Harrell is available in virtually all fantasy leagues so if you’re looking for a hot streaming pitcher option, he could be your guy. His next start is Tuesday against the Reds. I’d hold off on adding him.

Also check out:

Can Tyler Colvin Keep Producing?
Why Isn’t Clayton Richard Getting More Love?
Is Alexi Amarista Roster Worthy?
Buy Low Pitchers
Have No Fiers, Pitching Help is Here

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com