Tag: Fantasy

Fantasy Baseball: Is Alexi Amarista Roster Worthy?

In 42 games and 110 at-bats, San Diego second baseman Alexi Amarista is hitting .273 with 16 runs, four home runs, 18 RBI and a pair of stolen bases. These are not exactly numbers that make you want to waiver wire to snatch him up, but what he has done lately may make you reconsider.

Amarista’s season average hides the .143 May he experienced.

In June and July he has combined to hit .333. His OPS is at .771 thanks to his .367 in May. In June it was 1.088 and is at .775 so far this month. Amarista had just two extra base hits in April and has had 10 since.

He had two runs and two RBI in his first 35 at bats. In his subsequent 75, he has 13 runs and 16 RBI. He’s not giving you the stolen bases that you would want from a second baseman, but that is something he can build on.

He did swipe 15 bags in 86 games for Triple-A Salt Lake last year.

Part of the reason for his success is his ability to hit both righties and lefties. He is hitting .290 against left-handed pitching and .266 against righties. His power has come more against right-handed pitching (.782 OPS vs. .742) though, to balance him out a bit.

Despite playing in a pitcher’s park, he has managed to hit .267 at home.

Not surprisingly, Amarista’s luck has changed. After a .172 BABIP in May, it has been .333 since. While I think his power outage in June was a fluke, I don’t think a solid average is unattainable.

Amarista is owned in 37.0 percent of ESPN and 12.0 percent of Yahoo! leagues. If you are looking for a boost for your middle infielder slot and need some help in the batting average category, Amarista could be a decent option.

 

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Fantasy Baseball: 5 Second-Half Sleepers to Bolster Your Pitching Staff

The first half of the MLB season was all good and fun, fantasy owners, but it’s time to get down to business.

The All-Star break is just one week away, providing a perfect opportunity to rethink and re-tune those fantasy rosters for a second-half surge.

While sleepers are hard to come by this far into the season, here’s a look at five under-the-radar studs who may still be floating around your waiver wire.

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Fantasy Baseball 2012: Robinson Cano Headlines All-Star Team for Month of June

The following slideshow touts Fantasyland’s All-Star team for the month of June.

To clarify, the 27-man listing only honors statistics from the 30-day window for June and does not necessarily reflect a player’s status from April, May or the preseason.

The competition among outfielders and the corner infield spots was particularly intense.

And yet, this should hardly mollify the embedded masses crying foul over alleged snubs involving Brandon Phillips, David Price, David Ortiz, Mark Trumbo, Colby Rasmus, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kubel, Juan Pierre, Ben Revere, Josh Johnson, Wade Miley, Justin Verlander, Ryan Vogelsong, Scott Diamond, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Broxton, Ernesto Frieri and Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster (not enough strikeouts), among others.

Enjoy the show!

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Dillon Gee Has Been Nice Fantasy Surprise for New York Mets

The New York Mets have been a nice surprise, considering that Jose Reyes took his talents to South Beach. For the most part, the success has come from exceptional pitching.

While most of the attention goes to R.A. Dickey and Johan Santana (who have been lights out) as well as Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee has done his part as well.

On the year Gee is 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Decent numbers, but he has been even better of late. Over his past eight starts Dillon is 3-3 with a 3.42 and a 1.16 WHIP.

Gee’s ERA has improved each month. His April ERA was 4.85. His May ERA was 4.58 and his June number is 3.90. He kicks off July on Sunday against the Dodgers.

Gee has been surprisingly better on the road, posting a 3-2 record and a 4.23 ERA away from Citi Field, as opposed to a 2-4, 4.55 mark at home. His WHIP has been better at home (1.24 vs. 1.36) though.

Last year was the opposite, when he was 7-3 at home with a 3.17 ERA and 6-3 on the road with a 5.74 mark.

Gee’s BABIP is .307 this year, which is up from his .270 2011 mark, and has raised his career number to .276. It was .279 in June, so perhaps his luck is improving.

Gee’s strikeout ratio is at 8.4 K/9 and way up from last year’s 6.4 K/9 mark. If he can keep that up and keep his ERA down he’ll be a solid fantasy option going forward.

Gee is owned in just over 20 percent of Yahoo! and less than twenty percent of ESPN fantasy leagues.

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Fantasy Baseball: You Down with Jason Marquis?

Jason Marquis, how can I explain it
I’ll take you frame by frame it
Left Minnesota ’cause he was getting hit
San Diego success has you scratchin’ temple
Why?…well…that’s not that simple

OK, now that I got my Naughty By Nature out of my system, let’s take a look at Jason Marquis’ recent success.

When Marquis left Minnesota he was 2-4 with a bloated 8.47 ERA. Those are beer league softball numbers. Now that he’s back in the National League, it’s like he’s a new man.

For the Padres, he’s still struggling with wins and losses at 1-2, but he has posted a 1.86 ERA over 19-1/3 innings in his three starts.

Marquis has never really been a shut-down pitcher, as evidenced by his lifetime marks of 107-104, a 4.60 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, but he has at least been a serviceable pitcher with some fantasy value. Those are two things that couldn’t have been further from the truth in his brief stint in Minnesota.

Part of it could be his comfort level in the National League. He is also going to a pitcher’s park (not that Target Field is a launching pad) and to an offensively-challenged division. It also could just be the sweet mustache he’s rocking.

It should not be surprising that Marquis is only owned in a handful of fantasy leagues considering his early-season struggles. I will still only use him as a streaming option, but that wasn’t even a question a few weeks ago. His next start comes tomorrow against the Mariners in Seattle, so continued success wouldn’t be surprising.

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Fantasy Baseball 2012: 10 Red-Hot Minor League Pitchers and Hitters to Watch

Here are 10 under-26 prospects (in alphabetical order) who are tearing it up in the minor leagues.

Whether any of these talents gets promoted to the majors soon is unknown, but if their numbers are called sometime between late June and early September, be ready to scoop ’em up in 12- 14- or 16-team leagues.

Pitchers

SP Trevor Bauer, Reno Aces (Triple-A)
Age: 21
Parent Club: Arizona Diamondbacks
2012 Stats: 11-1, 2.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 104/42 K-BB
Skinny: There’s no time like the present in splurging for a Justin Verlander/Clayton Kershaw/Stephen Strasburg-esque prospect who’s been nearly unstoppable at every level of the minors. (Bauer was recently promoted to Triple-A Reno.) Given the Diamondbacks’ patient approach with super prospects (Justin Upton would be a rare exception), there’s no guarantee Bauer will see a major league ballpark before Sept. 1. However, he could easily force Arizona’s hand with a few more dominant starts in Reno.

 

SP Tony Cingrani, Pensacola Blue Wahoos (Double-A)
Age: 22
Parent Club: Cincinnati Reds
2012 Stats: 6-2, 1.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 91/17 K-BB
Skinny: Cingrani went 13 starts (and 60-plus innings) before allowing more than two runs in an outing. That alone should garner Cingrani (the Reds’ No. 10 prospect) prime consideration to be Cincinnati’s next big callup to the majors, among pitchers. At the very least, Cingrani may be evolving into the organization’s No. 1 pitching stud (fractionally ahead of Donnie Joseph/Robert Stephenson).

SP Jose Fernandez, Greensboro Grasshoppers (Single-A)
Age: 19
Parent Club: Miami Marlins
2012 Stats: 7-0, 1.59 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 99/18 K-BB
Skinny: In recent years, the Marlins haven’t been afraid to promote teenagers in the majors. Of course, Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria were hitters, but Fernandez, a pitcher in the mold of Felix Hernandez, might be too great a force to ignore during the pennant chase.

 

SP Danny Hultzen, Jackson Generals (Double-A)
Age: 22
Parent Club: Seattle Mariners
2012 Stats: 8-3, 1.19 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 79/32 K-BB
Skinny: It may be just a matter of time before Hultzen—the Mariners’ No. 1 prospect—punches a permanent ticket to Seattle. In his last seven appearances (spanning 44.2 innings), Hultzen has allowed a microscopic two runs (0.41 ERA in that span), while collecting six wins and 45 strikeouts. In the fantasy realm, Hultzen projects to be a high-end No. 2 starter in the majors.

 

SP Jake Odorizzi, Omaha Storm Chasers (Triple-A)
Age: 22
Parent Club: Kansas City Royals
2012 Stats: 8-2, 2.89 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 81/20 K-BB
Skinny: Odorizzi, who headlines the Royals’ next wave of big-time prospects to Kansas City, would be a welcome sight upon earning an MLB promotion. Since April 23 (covering 10 appearances), Odorizzi has surrendered just 15 runs (2.21 ERA in that span) while racking up seven wins and 74 strikeouts. In the fantasy realm, Odorizzi could evolve into Kansas City’s No. 1 pitcher throughout the decade.

 

Hitters

OF Jackie Bradley, Salem Red Sox (Single-A Advanced)
Age: 22
Parent Club: Boston Red Sox
2012 Stats: 3 HR, 34 RBI, 53 R, 16 SB, .359 BA, .480 OBP, 1.006 OPS
Skinny: According to The Roanoke (Va.) Times, Bradley will earn a promotion to Double-A ball this week, a nod to his consistent success over the last two months. But with outfielders Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford likely rejoining the Boston lineup in the next 30-45 days, Portland, Maine, may be Bradley’s last destination for the season. That aside, he could provide three-category production if given the chance to succeed in the majors.

 

C Travis d’Arnaud, Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A)
Age: 23
Parent Club: Toronto Blue Jays
2012 Stats: 15 HR, 48 RBI, 42 R, 1 SB, .335 BA, .385 OBP, .987 OPS
Skinny: The Blue Jays already have a solid, young catcher in J.P. Arencibia (nine homers, 32 RBI). But the club can only stash a great prospect like d’Arnaud in the minors for so long. In the last two seasons, d’Arnaud (36 homers, 126 RBI, .319 batting) has separated himself from the pack of under-25 prospects. He’s also built up expectations to the point where he could be a top-10 catcher to open the 2013 season. But that distinction is based on him getting quality at-bats in the majors this season—hopefully in the next three weeks.

 

2B Jake Elmore, Reno Aces (Triple-A)
Age: 25
Parent Club: Arizona Diamondbacks
2012 Stats: 1 HR, 48 RBI, 60 R, 23 SB, .395 BA, .473 OBP, 1.007 OPS
Skinny: In the course of his 26-game hit streak (May 20-June 17), Elmore has 14 multiple-hit games, 15 steals and a whopping .420 batting average. Hopefully, it’ll be enough to motivate the Diamondbacks to give Elmore a look in the coming weeks, although Aaron Hill just hit for the cycle on June 18.

OF Wil Myers, Omaha Storm Chasers (Triple-A)
Age: 21
Parent Club: Kansas City Royals
2012 Stats: 24 HR, 61 RBI, 59 R, 5 SB, .337 BA, .408 OBP, 1.127 OPS
Skinny: Check out this run of statistical success from May 31-June 17: In that span, Myers notched eight homers, 18 RBI, 23 runs and batted at a .358 clip. As hitters go, Myers could be Kansas City’s next big target to burst onto the scene. As fantasy leagues go, there’s a chance Myers will have outfield and catcher eligibility whenever he breaks through to the bigs. If that’s the case, he’ll definitely be worth rostering in 16-team leagues.

 

1B Anthony Rizzo, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A)
Age: 22
Parent Club: Chicago Cubs
2012 Stats: 23 HR, 59 RBI, 46 R, 2 SB, .364 BA, .426 OBP, 1.170 OPS
Skinny: Of the prospects listed here, Rizzo is the odds-on favorite to garner the next big-league promotion. In fact, the Cubs recently placed first baseman Bryan LaHair in the outfield, a move that could precipitate Rizzo’s permanent relocation to Chicago in the coming days or weeks.

 

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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Fantasy Baseball: Eric Hosmer and the Top 10 Buy Low Targets for June

Fantasy baseball leagues are not won on draft day. Granted, some of them can be lost, but in general, a league is won by the shrewd roster moves made by the owner who is furthest ahead of the curve. If you added Chris Sale or Jeff Samardzija in recent weeks, you know the feeling.

The trick to buying low on a player is two-fold. 1) The player you buy low on has to then perform to your expectations, thereby returning more value than you gave up. And 2) you have to pay current market value (which is below where you expect him to end up) without letting the current owner know that you expect him to end up there.

One notable omission from this list is Tim Lincecum. I didn’t forget about the Giants’ former ace (Matt Cain is now clearly their best starter). But I am no longer convinced the ERA or WHIP will correct themselves, at least not this year. I traded Lincecum in an 18-team keeper league for Curtis Granderson straight up, in case you doubt me. 

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Major League Baseball 2012: Impact Hitters Who Have Been Overlooked

Since many big name players like Albert Pujols, Jayson Heyward, Justin Upton and Shin Soo-Choo have failed to live up to their expectations this year, it is time to flip the page and identify the players who were deemed as “weak” or “non-factoring” and give them the credit that they have earned thus far.  

Sports networks consistently talk about big names and whether or not they are living up to potential and fail to discuss the surprise stars who have made an impact under the radar.  It is time to put Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, and co. on the back-burner and go over who is beginning to make a name for themselves.

 

1. Dayan Viciedo – Chicago White Sox

Viciedo went through May hitting a stellar .351 while hitting 8 home runs and driving in 24.  His OPS was .995 which ranked 14th in the league.  Now why is it that Viciedo has gotten so little recognition outside of Chicago?  The Tank, as he is known, hit .287 with 40 homers and 125 RBIs in two seasons in AAA and was one of the exciting stories coming into the 2012 season for the South Siders after the departure of Carlos Quentin.  

His defense is better than Quentin, who had a great glove in RF. Viciedo’s arm is one of the best young LF arms in baseball as players are already being cautious when thinking about running on him.  I do not believe he can keep this .280+ average throughout the season, but finishing at .260 with 25 home runs would finally give The Tank some fantasy respect in the upcoming seasons.

 

 

2. Jason Kipnis – Cleveland Indians

The Chicago-native Kipnis has become the lone power-hitter for the Indians with all the injuries they have sustained.  Funny thing is that at only 5’11”, he has already knocked out nine home runs. Five came in May, which is better than sluggers like Jay Bruce, Adrian Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera.  His respectable .295 May AVG and .351 OBP shows that the little guy is getting patient at the plate and waiting for the right pitches to swing at.

I definitely see his production staying consistent, especially if he has to be the driving force behind an unhealthy Tribe.  While I do not think I see any Gold Gloves or Silver Sluggers in his future, (thanks to Robby Cano), Kipnis will definitely be a 2B fantasy star in the next few years and has tons of fans in Cleveland & Chicago alike.

 

3.  Lucas Duda – New York Mets

Despite hitting only .259 on the season, Duda’s 8 long balls and 30 RBIs have gone a long way in terms of the revived Mets organization.  While his OPS is also mediocre at .773, his 21 walks ranks him in the Top 30 for NL hitters.  At only 26 years old and wth a massive 6’4″, 254 pound frame, he is definitely a power threat throughout this season and beyond.  While we should not expect Adam Dunn-like home run numbers, I see Duda in line for 25 home runs this year to go along with a respectable 80-85 RBIs.  

I have a good feeling the Mets will hold onto Duda for awhile being that they can get some good production out of him for a low price, something that the Mets are more accustomed to with only three players being paid over $5 million (Santana, Wright, Francisco).  

 

 

4.  Ian DesmondWashington Nationals

We are in the midst of seeing the next great star shortstop in Ian Desmond.  He has proven himself as one of the key components to the Nationals success this year.  His eight home runs and 23 RBI ranks him second on the team in front of stars Jayson Werth & Ryan Zimmerman.  His hit total at 57 leads his club and his 34 May hits ranked him fourth among NL Shortstops last month.  

While he does not walk much and does have a hefty strike out total at 45, along with only nine walks, Desmond has certainly come into his own after hitting .253 with eight home runs last season. 

For the next five to 10 years we get the privilege of seeing Desmond fight with Starlin Castro, Zack Cozart, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jose Reyes in the race to becoming the supreme shortstop in the National League. It is now time for the young Nats’ core to continue to live up to the hype as being a hungry dangerous bunch. 

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Fantasy Baseball 2012: Players to Buy Low, Sell High Using Sabermetrics

Baseball is a great sport for fantasy owners because everything can be quantified. Every at bat is an individual event and can be meticulously scrutinized to the point where we can use sabermetric statistics to predict future success or failures.

Using some of these principles, we’re going to look at two players that are good “buy low” candidates and two pitchers that are good “sell high” candidates.

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Fantasy Baseball 2012: The Max Scherzer Trade-Value Conundrum

I could not have envisioned the context of this entry just five days ago…but here it is.

On the strength of his 15-strikeout gem against the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 20, Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer (3-3, 63 strikeouts in 2012) has emerged as a coveted asset in trade talks, primarily with squads chasing strikeouts.

Sunday’s stellar outing (which included only one walk) was already Scherzer’s second double-digit strikeout effort and fourth of nine or more Ks since April 13.

There’s also an ERA angle to consider here: Before his May 5 start against the White Sox, Scherzer (5.73 seasonal ERA) and Tigers pitching coach Jeff Jones apparently closed a hole in the pitcher’s delivery. Since that tutorial, Scherzer has surrendered just 10 earned runs in his last four starts (3.73 ERA during that span).

During spring training, I had Scherzer pegged as the No. 33 starting pitcher, a ranking that has looked boldly prescient at times and woefully inadequate for others. (Scherzer has allowed five or more runs three times this season.)

Looking at his next five starts (@ Twins, @ Red Sox, vs. Indians, @ Cubs, vs. Rockies), Scherzer has a realistic capacity for three wins and 38 strikeouts.

Obviously, Scherzer is not in Tigers teammate Justin Verlander‘s class; but as No. 4 fantasy starters go, he compares favorably to Colby Lewis, Tommy Hanson or Josh Beckett.

(For the record, AccuScore has Scherzer projected for 7.2 victories, 139.3 strikeouts, a 4.35 ERA and 1.35 WHIP from this point forward—May 23 to Sept. 30.)

Here’s a balanced, three-tiered breakdown of Scherzer’s adjusted trade value in 12-team roto leagues:

1-for-1
Bryan LaHair, Melky Cabrera, Nick Markakis or Drew Stubbs

2-for-2
Scherzer/Michael Cuddyer for Yovani Gallardo/Jason Kipnis
Scherzer/Jason Heyward for Anibal Sanchez/Andre Ethier
Scherzer/Ichiro Suzuki for Matt Cain/Justin Morneau

2-for-3
Scherzer/Ian Kinsler for Matt Holliday/J.P. Arencibia/Tim Hudson
Scherzer/Jose Bautista for Michael Young/Brandon Phillips/C.J. Wilson
Scherzer/Joe Mauer for Austin Jackson/Jonathan Lucroy/Jordan Zimmermann
Scherzer/Curtis Granderson for Hunter Pence/Erik Bedard/Jose Reyes


Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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